Dynasty Owner Draft Tips

Updated: Aug 27

Author: Steven Van Tassell

Your first Dynasty Owner Fantasy Football Draft Day is coming soon. For some people, it’s the best day of the year – better than Christmas, the Fourth of July, their birthday, the start of the baseball season, etc.

Mock drafting has been going for about a month now and real Dynasty Owner drafts commence in August. Since Dynasty Owner is a new and innovative concept, there are sure to be lots of ideas floating around about how to draft. For this article, we’re going to avoid “regular” fantasy football tips and offer up some ideas to help you on Draft Day that are unique to the Dynasty Owner concept.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

With the preamble out of the way, let’s get to the draft tips that are going to help you win your inaugural 2019 Dynasty Owner league championship.

Value, Value, Value

The old adage about real estate is that the three most important things are Location, Location and Location. The same is true for Dynasty Owner. As you’ve probably gathered from reading these Dynasty Owner articles over the past couple of months, the three most important things for Dynasty Owners should be Value, Value and Value.

But why is value so important? Let’s examine two stud players at the wide receiver position and look at the relevant stats from a “regular” fantasy football perspective.

  • Antonio Brown: 323 fantasy points (2018)
  • Michael Thomas: 319 fantasy points (2018)

Not much difference there. Brown was a little more valuable than Thomas last year, but not even a point per game better. If you had drafted them in the same round one after another in a “regular” fantasy league, you’d say you got equal value.

In “regular” fantasy football, you might say Thomas was a better “value”. Thomas was generally drafted as the fifth wide receiver off the board in the second round, while Brown was a consensus first round pick and generally the first wide receiver taken. Therefore, Thomas’ owners got the same production from a later draft pick.

In Dynasty Owner, Thomas is even more of a value than Brown because of the difference in salary between the two of them. Thomas’s salary for 2019 is scheduled to be just under $1.3 million while Brown makes over $16.7 million. Breaking it down, we find that Brown is projected to cost Dynasty Owners 13 times more than Thomas in 2019.

  • Michael Thomas: 296 points, $1,279,743 salary, $4,323 cost per point
  • Antonio Brown: 290 points, $16,708,333 salary, $57,615 cost per point

Both are predicted to be equally valuable in “regular” fantasy football, but Thomas is going to be so much more valuable in Dynasty Owner in 2019 than Brown. Thomas might be worthy of a first round draft pick, whereas you can likely pick up Brown a lot later if you think he will remain productive and are willing to be saddled with his salary for the next three years.

Speaking of first round picks, here’s a hot tip on who else to draft in the first round.

George Kittle Is a Late First Round Draft Pick

You’re probably reading this and saying to yourself – “Are you crazy? Nobody drafts a tight end in the first round. Gronk maybe a few years ago, but not George Kittle.” Kittle isn’t even the top rated TE in “regular” fantasy football, he’s in the top three along with Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, but he isn’t the best.

In addition, drafting a TE in the first round is an alien concept to almost everyone. Rarely does it happen, and when it does, that person isn’t winning a league championship. Believe it or not, it’s happened in my regular 12-team fantasy football league not once, but twice (2004 – Shannon Sharpe and 2017 – Rob Gronkowski, both with the 12th pick).

However, let’s go back to our first draft tip – Value. George Kittle was the most valuable receiver (WR or TE) in Dynasty Owner in 2018 and is projected to be the most valuable again in 2019.

  • George Kittle (2018): 255 points, $674,572 salary, $2,645 cost per point
  • George Kittle (2019): 227 points, $674,572 salary, $2,972 cost per point

Does that mean he’s worth a first-round pick? Yes, indeed! If you look at all players, Kittle was the third most valuable Dynasty Owner player in 2018 and even though he is projected to have fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019, he’s still projected as the seventh most valuable player this year.

  1. Dak Prescott (DAL – QB) – $2,002 projected cost per point
  2. James Conner (PIT – RB) – $2,652 projected cost per point
  3. Phillip Lindsay (DEN – RB) – $2,674 projected cost per point
  4. Alvin Kamara (NO – RB) – $2,804 projected cost per point
  5. Aaron Jones (GB – RB) – $2,841 projected cost per point
  6. Chris Carson (SEA – RB) – $2,853 projected cost per point
  7. George Kittle (SF – TE) – $2,972 projected cost per point

If you can get the seventh most valuable player with the number 8, 9 or 10 pick in the first round, then you’ve done a good job with your Dynasty Owner draft. Just remember to make a good choice with your second pick since you’ll have a while to wait for Round 3.

Draft Three Kickers

Again, you’re probably reading this and saying to yourself – “Are you crazy? I don’t even want two of them, why should I waste three draft picks on kickers?”

That reaction is completely understandable, but the reasoning for this tip is that you need a starter and bench kicker, plus a practice squad kicker for the bye weeks. Do you really want to have your second kicker on bye, but still on your bench and lose by a point or two?

You can still wait to draft a kicker until the 17th or 18th round, but at that point, you should strongly consider getting three of them to cover for your bye weeks (or an injury). Remember, players on your bench accumulate points and 20% of your bench scoring will be added to your final score. Bench points could be the difference in Dynasty Owner between winning and losing. Automatically committing to zero points from your bench kicker twice just to have a sixth wide receiver or running back sitting on your practice squad might not be the best winning strategy in Dynasty Owner.

Returning Some Value

Another potentially overlooked scoring opportunity in Dynasty Owner comes from kickoff and punt returns. In regular fantasy football, you generally only get points if your kickoff or punt returner scores a touchdown. Not in Dynasty Owner!

We have points for kickoff and punt return yards. It’s .25 points for every 10 yards. Not much, but how many times have you won or lost a fantasy game by a point or two? Probably enough to know that every point counts in fantasy.

A player who doubles as a kickoff or punt returner makes that player more valuable in Dynasty Owner than “regular” fantasy football. To demonstrate my point, let’s take Tyler Lockett for example and compare him with some other players who put up similar receiving stats in 2018.

Lockett was a top 20 receiver in 2018 with 220 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, tied with Odell Beckham Jr. and one point behind Tyler Boyd. Lockett also had 28 punt returns for 165 yards and 20 kickoff returns for 545 yards – good for the Top 20 in each category, while Boyd had zero return yards and Beckham had just 60 yards. Lockett’s 730 yards in returns is good for an extra 17.75 Dynasty Owner points, or just over one point per game, and vaults him ahead of both Boyd and Beckham in terms of Dynasty Owner production. That’s returning some value to his Dynasty Owner and is something that shouldn’t be overlooked when rating and drafting players in Dynasty Owner.

Conclusions

Dynasty Owner is different than “regular” fantasy football and your draft strategy is going to have to change from what you’re used to doing. No more are you merely looking for the top performer at each position because you might not be able to fit them under the Dynasty Owner salary cap. You’d have to struggle to find good players to fill out your bench and practice squad. Dynasty Owner is all about value. Finding value with your draft picks will be a key to winning.

Another key to victory in Dynasty Owner are bench points. The 20% bonus you get for the points scored by players on your bench is an incentive to have players in reserve who are also high scoring. That’s why having three kickers is recommended in Dynasty Owner. You never know if those backup kicker points are going to be the difference between winning and losing. Don’t be the Dynasty Owner who has a backup kicker on bye, getting you zero points and lose your match-up by one or two points.

Finally, factor in those return points when drafting. A player who returns punts and kicks is more valuable in Dynasty Owner than the same player who doesn’t. You just might squeeze out a victory because of those return yardage points.

One question unanswered is: Who’s going to be the number one pick in Dynasty Owner? We’ll all find out soon enough after training camps open later on this month and drafting starts for Dynasty Owner in August.

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

With an Abundance of Rookie Receivers, Which Ones Are Worth Drafting?

Updated: Aug 27

Author: Steven Van Tassell

In contrast to the limited pool of potential impact rookie quarterbacks and running backs, there appears to be an abundance of rookies at the wide receiver and tight end positions worth drafting in Dynasty Owner. A total of nine WRs were drafted in the first two rounds of the 2019 NFL draft, but the first one wasn’t drafted until the 25th pick meaning that no rookie WR has a rookie contract with an annual salary of over $3 million. For Dynasty Owners, it means there’s plenty of value available at WR. The tough part is figuring out which rookie WRs are the best ones to draft.

There is a lack of high-end veteran TEs as we covered in our look at tight ends a couple of weeks ago. Therefore, the opportunity exists for two rookie TEs out of Iowa to be starters in Week 1. In addition, there are several other rookie TEs who might be worthy of drafting for your Dynasty Owner team.

All projected stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Will Any Rookie WRs Break Out from the Pack?

There were nine (yes, nine) wide receivers chosen in the first two rounds of the NFL draft with seven chosen in the second round alone. That’s a lot of rookies to look at, so in order to look at them as a Dynasty Owner should, the first thing we’ve done is break them down by 2019 projected cost per point.

  1. Andy Isabella (ARI) – 129 points, $1,157,469 salary, $8,973 cost per point
  2. Parris Campbell (IND) – 133 points, $1,193,984 salary, $8,977 cost per point
  3. D.K. Metcalf (SEA) – 112 points, $1,146,514 salary, $10,237 cost per point
  4. A.J. Brown (TEN) – 118 points, $1,413,092 salary, $11,975 cost per point
  5. Mecole Hardman (KC) – 98 points, $1,248,763 salary, $12,742 cost per point
  6. Deebo Samuel (SF) – 119 points, $1,924,339 salary, $16,171 cost per point
  7. N’Keal Harry (NE) – 153 points, $2,524,587 salary, $16,501 cost per point
  8. Marquise Brown (BAL) – 136 points, $2,946,835 salary, $21,668 cost per point
  9. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (PHI) – 52 points, $1,235,682 salary, $23,763 cost per point

Overall, the first thing we notice is that none of the rookie WRs are projected to be breakout candidates in 2019 or worthy of a high round draft pick. N’Keal Harry is projected to score the most points, but his 153 Dynasty Owner fantasy points still works out to less than ten points per game and 100 points less than a dozen veteran WRs.

Based on this chart, the best value pick of the rookie WRs is former UMass receiver Andy Isabella, the 8th rookie WR taken by the Arizona Cardinals with the 62nd overall pick in the draft, followed very closely by former Ohio State Buckeye receiver Parris Campbell who was drafted three picks ahead of Isabella with the 59th overall selection by the Indianapolis Colts. Both are projected to cost just under $9,000 per point in 2019. With the two of them so close, which one should you target in your Dynasty Owner draft?

For my Dynasty Dollars, it’s Campbell over Isabella. While Isabella is listed as the starter for the receiver-starved Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald excluded), Campbell has a better situation with Andrew Luck throwing him passes. While it’s true that both T.Y. Hilton and Chester Rogers are ahead of him on the depth chart, the rest of the Colts receivers don’t inspire great confidence, so Campbell has a good chance of exceeding his 133 Dynasty Owner fantasy point projection for 2019 and contributing to the Colts offense for years to come.

The third player on our list, D.K. Metcalf, was one of the biggest surprises of the NFL Draft as he fell from an anticipated first round draft pick and potentially the first WR off the board to the ninth WR chosen as the last pick of the second round by the Seattle Seahawks. With a lot to prove and lots of catches to be had with the retirement of veteran Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin, Metcalf could be better than anticipated in 2019. If he does exceed his projected 112 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, he would end up as more valuable to his Dynasty Owners than either Isabella or Campbell.

Mecole Hardman is the wild card of the rookie WRs. His value depends greatly on the status of fellow Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. Reports are circulating that Hill may only get a four-game suspension. If so, Hardman would be a lot less valuable than if Hill received a longer suspension as was being speculated earlier in the offseason. At $12,742 projected cost per point, right in the middle of the rookie WR pack, Dynasty Owners will have to proceed with caution and see what length suspension Commissioner Roger Goodell hands down for Hill before they can get a proper gauge of Hardman’s value to the Chiefs (and your Dynasty Owner team) this season.

Book-ending Hardman at #4 and #6 on the rookie WR value chart are two former SEC WRs, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel. While both are projected to score a similar number of points (119 for Samuel vs. 118 for Brown), Brown is projected to be more valuable on the basis of being drafted 15 picks after Samuel. However, Samuel is listed as the projected starter on the 49ers depth chart, while Brown is not projected to start for the Titans. Based on this and the fact that Samuel has a better QB throwing to him than Brown does, Samuel could very well be worth the extra $500,000 in salary this year and beyond.

First round picks N’Keal Harry and Marquise Brown sit almost at the bottom of the rookie WR list, even as both are projected to score more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than any of the other rookie WRs. Harry is projected to score more and as a result, he has more value ($16,501 cost per point vs. $21,668 for Brown). That could change once the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady retires and as Lamar Jackson improves as a passer, but for 2019, Harry definitely looks like the better option.

Finally, with a projection of only 52 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for $1.2 million, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is probably best left to the Dynasty Owner free agent pool. There are better veteran options at roughly his salary (Tyler Boyd and Cooper Kupp immediately spring to mind) and there is even a higher salary option who will give you the same value on the Eagles roster (Nelson Agholor).

Which Former Hawkeye Tight End Should You Draft First?

That’s the question that we need to answer at tight end – do you draft the number eight overall pick T.J. Hockenson of the Detroit Lions ahead of the twentieth overall pick Noah Fant of the Denver Broncos or vice versa? Both are likely going to be the starter in 2019 and have veteran QBs throwing them the ball, so it’s a toss-up in terms of projected Dynasty Owner production in 2019.

  • Noah Fant: 121 projected points
  • T. J. Hockenson: 114 projected points

Since Fant was picked twelve positions later than Hockenson, his salary is over $1.8 million lower ($4.955 million for Hockenson vs. $3.15 million for Fant). And that makes Fant a lot more valuable in Dynasty Owner.

  • Noah Fant: 121 points, $3,147,680 salary, $26,014 cost per point
  • T. J. Hockenson: 114 points, $4,955,306 salary, $43,468 cost per point

Both of them are prohibitively expensive at those cost per point values, especially when they are projected as being the twentieth and twenty-second best fantasy producers at TE in 2019. However, many of the names (Trey Burton, Jared Cook, Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olson, Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph and Delanie Walker) ahead of Hockenson and Fant carry higher salaries and higher cost per point projections than the both of the rookies do. Suddenly, Hockenson and Fant are looking like better values and maybe worth picking higher than just their point projections would indicate.

Are There Any Other Valuable Rookie Tight Ends Out There?

What about Dynasty Owners who don’t want to pay $3 million to $5 million (or more) for their tight end, but aren’t lucky enough to draft George Kittle. Are there any values out there among the rookie TEs?

Based on projected points in 2019, the answer is: Not really. However, if we look beyond the projections, two groups of rookie TEs exist beyond Hockenson and Fant – rookies with a veteran QB who are stuck on the depth chart behind a high-priced veteran TE and rookies who might emerge as the starter on teams without a reliable, pass catching veteran TE. All of these players are projected to score far fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Hockenson and Fant, but they also make half as much in salary (or less).

First, we have Minnesota Vikings rookie TE Irv Smith Jr. and Green Bay Packers rookie TE Jace Sternberger who sit behind Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham respectively on the Vikings and Packers depth chart. Both are projected to score only a couple of points per game and to cost quite a lot on a cost per point basis (not as much as Hockenson, but Smith’s value is very close to Fant). When we look at both of them as a Dynasty Owner should, we see Sternberger is more valuable.

  • Jace Sternberger: 51 points, $966,382 salary, $18,949 cost per point
  • Irv Smith Jr.: 56 points, $1,449,609 salary, $25,886 cost per point

Not only is he nearly $500,000 more expensive annually than Sternberger, Smith’s value in 2019 and beyond took a big hit when the Vikings signed Rudolph to a contract extension through 2023. In contrast, Sternberger appears more likely to be the starter in the near future as Graham is older than Rudolph (32 vs. 29) and his contract expires two years earlier (2021 vs. 2023).

There are also three rookie TEs who are projected to score very few Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019, but might find their way into the lineup more as the season progresses since they don’t face a lot of competition from the other TEs on the roster. Just looking at their projected 2019 points and cost per point, none of them look worthy of having on your Dynasty Owner roster.

  • Josh Oliver: 46 points, $1,062,711 salary, $23,102 cost per point
  • Foster Moreau: 19 points, $752,098 salary, $39,584 cost per point
  • Kahale Warring: 18 points, $910,114 salary, $50,562 cost per point

However, a quick question for everyone reading – Can you name any of the veteran TEs on the Houston, Jacksonville, or Oakland rosters without looking at the next page of this article?

The answers are:

  • Houston – Jerrell Adams, Jordan Akins, Darren Fells and Jordan Thomas
  • Jacksonville – James O’Shaughnessy and Geoff Swaim
  • Oakland – Derek Carrier, Erik Swoope, Darren Waller, and Luke Willson

We’re not exactly talking about the second coming of Kellen Winslow or Shannon Sharpe, are we? That’s why Oliver, Moreau, and Warring are worth looking at for a spot on your 2019 Dynasty Owner practice squad.

Conclusions

There are a lot of rookie receivers worth considering for your inaugural Dynasty Owner roster. The downside is that none of the WRs were high first round draft picks, so nobody appears to be a sure bet. The positive spin on that is these rookie WRs come with lower salaries since they were drafted either late in the first round or in the second round.

As far as TEs go, T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are worthy of drafting based on the fact that they are projected starters – although their first-round draft pick salaries make them much more expensive and less valuable than their fellow rookie wideouts. Beyond those two rookie TEs, there are several other rookies worth checking out and maybe drafting for your practice squad.

There are plenty of options out there for Dynasty Owners. We’ll find out in December which of the rookies drafted (or not drafted) in August were worth it. Hopefully, you take one who helps you win your Dynasty Owner league in 2019.

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Rookie QBs and RBs – Are Any Of Them Worth Owning?

Author: Steven Van Tassell

Now that we’ve looked at every position and found the best value picks based on 2018 performance, it’s time to analyze rookies and find out if any of them are worth their rookie contracts for the beta season of Dynasty Owner in 2019. Last year, the number one (Baker Mayfield) and number two (Saquon Barkley) picks in the NFL draft ended up being staples in their owners’ lineups on a weekly basis, but there were surprises like undrafted rookie free agent Phillip Lindsay who was a productive fantasy option all season as well.

We also had rookie busts too (although it’s difficult to call someone a bust after one year). Ronald Jones II comes to mind as he was an early second round pick and appeared likely to be the starting running back in Tampa Bay at the start of the 2018 season. However, he was inactive for the first three games of the season, scored just one touchdown and ended up producing only 22 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Is anybody coming out of nowhere to be an impact fantasy player in 2019? And which early round picks at QB and RB will be the best Dynasty Owner values in 2019?

All projected stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards.

Only Two QBs Are Worth Considering, But Are They Worth The Price?

Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals and Dwayne Haskins of the Washington Redskins are only rookie QBs worth owning for 2019 in Dynasty Owner. Both are projected to play this year, while all of the other rookie quarterbacks will need an injury or two to make it on the playing field (See Mullens, Nick).

So, who’s projected to be the better value out of the two in 2019? Based on our exclusive projected Dynasty Owner fantasy points, number one pick Kyler Murray is projected to have double the points of Haskins this season (382 points for Murray vs. 187 for Haskins). However, since this is Dynasty Owner and we need to take salaries into account, Haskins turns out to be the better value based on his mid-first round draft pick salary of $3.6 million compared to the nearly $8.8 million that Murray will be paid by the Cardinals.

  • Dwayne Haskins: 187 points, $3,604,153 salary, $19,274 cost per point
  • Kyler Murray: 382 points, $8,789,661 salary, $23,010 cost per point

In comparison to the large pool of available second, third and fourth year QBs still working on their rookie salary deals (so Dak Prescott plus everyone drafted in the first round in 2016, 2017 and 2018 excluding Carson Wentz), both are far down the list of young QB values for 2019. Haskins slots in as the eight best value just behind Jared Goff and a little better than Baker Mayfield. Murray is the eleventh best value, ahead of only last year’s number three pick Sam Darnold.

  1. Dak Prescott (DAL) – 340 points, $680,848 salary, $2,002 cost per point
  2. Lamar Jackson (BAL) – 330 points, $2,367,912 salary, $7,175 cost per point
  3. Patrick Mahomes (KC) – 428 points, $4,106,447 salary, $9,595 cost per point
  4. DeShaun Watson (HOU) – 360 points, $3,463,570 salary, $9,621 cost per point
  5. Josh Allen (BUF) – 331 points, $5,295,760 salary, $15,999 cost per point
  6. Josh Rosen (MIA) – 268 points, $4,399,439 salary, $16,416 cost per point
  7. Jared Goff (LAR) – 372 points, $6,984,418 salary, $18,775 cost per point
  8. Dwayne Haskins (WAS) – 187 points, $3,604,153 salary, $19,274 cost per point
  9. Baker Mayfield (CLE) – 390 points, $8,170,745 salary, $20,951 cost per point
  10. Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) – 338 points, $7,258,106 salary, $21,474 cost per point
  11. Kyler Murray (ARI) – 382 points, $8,789,661 salary, $23,010 cost per point
  12. Sam Darnold (NYJ) – 324 points, $7,561,929 salary, $23,339 cost per point

For my Dynasty Dollars, I’d much rather have DeShaun Watson over Haskins for roughly the same salary even with Haskins having two more years at that salary. I’d also prefer to spend a couple of million dollars more for Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield and roughly get the same value. And even though Mayfield and Murray are projected to score about the same amount of points and have similar salaries, I think Mayfield is much more likely to meet or exceed projections than Murray based on his performance last year the quality of the receivers and running backs at his disposal in 2019.

Unless you have a crystal ball and can predict injuries, it’s difficult to recommend drafting any of the other 2019 rookie QBs, such as Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Will Grier, or Jared Stidham in Dynasty Owner. While several of them have low salaries for the next couple of years and might be worth a practice squad stash, none are recommended if you’re playing to win (and who isn’t) in 2019.

Is Josh Jacobs the Best Rookie Running Back?

The first running back taken in the 2019 NFL Draft was Josh Jacobs of the Oakland (soon to be Las Vegas) Raiders. While h has yet to sign his rookie contract, based on reports and his draft position, he will likely sign for about $11.9 million over four years or just under $3 million annually. Jacobs is projected to have 218 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019 and using his anticipated salary, he clocks in at a solid $13,645 cost per point for 2019.

Josh Jacobs: 218 points, $2,974,573 salary, $13,645 cost per point

No other running backs were selected in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft, but that doesn’t mean Jacobs should be the only rookie RB on your Dynasty Owner radar.

According to former Dallas Cowboys executive Gil Brandt in an article on NFL.com (http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001033290/article/2019-nfl-season-projecting-the-top-five-rookie-running-backs), the top rookie running back this year is going to be David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears. Montgomery was just a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and Tarik Cohen, himself a great RB value pick, and Mike Davis will also be wearing Bears uniforms this season and fighting Montgomery for playing time.

However, if you are like Brandt, and are buying into the Montgomery hype because you envision Bears Coach Matt Nagy using Montgomery as the replacement for Jordan Howard, then he’s a great rookie value RB based on his 2019 Dynasty Owner projected fantasy points and low salary of just over $1 million annually.

  • David Montgomery: 204 points, $1,003,845 salary, $4,921 cost per point

Speaking of Jordan Howard, his new team – the Philadelphia Eagles – drafted a rookie running back in the second round. Miles Sanders was the pick and our Dynasty Owner projections have him scoring the most points of all of the Eagles many RBs in 2019. He also will cost you more than Howard, Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement and Josh Adams, but is projected to be more valuable than all but Howard.

  • Miles Sanders: 182 points, $1,337,544 salary, $7,349 cost per point

Both Montgomery and Sanders are projected to be better values than Jacobs and only a point or two less productive per game. Despite these projections, both of them have a lot of competition for carries and catches on their teams. If you believe the projections and think Montgomery and/or Sanders are likely to meet or exceed them, then it’s an open question as whether Josh Jacobs should be the first rookie RB off the Dynasty Owner draft boards in August.

If you’re looking for a sleeper for 2019 and beyond, then take a look at Darwin Thompson of the Kansas City Chiefs. The sixth round draft pick out of Utah State is only projected to score 27 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this year, but I’m betting that he beats those projections by a lot and could be the Chiefs’ starter at some point this year. His $661,960 salary means that you can safely stash him away on your practice squad at the beginning of the year without smashing the salary cap and see if I’m right or not.

You don’t have to just take my word for it, there have been articles, like the one below, written about his OTA performance and the positive impression he has made on Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric “Sleeping with” Bieniemy (still one of my all-time favorite Chris Berman nicknames) https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/31/darwin-thompson-kansas-city-chiefs-ota-takeaways/

In another dynasty league (not Dynasty Owner), I drafted Thompson with a late third round pick in our rookies-only draft back around Memorial Day. By early June, I received an offer of a first round 2020 rookie-only draft pick for Thompson (which I promptly turned down).

Conclusions

The top QB and RB selections in the 2019 NFL draft might not necessarily be the top draft picks taken at their positions in your inaugural 2019 Dynasty Owner draft. The salary that comes with being the number one overall draft pick makes Kyler Murray projected to be less valuable than the number fifteen pick in Dwayne Haskins. However, both of them are stuck behind plenty of other low-cost young QBs in terms of value.

Two other rookie RBs are projected to be nearly as productive as Josh Jacobs, the first RB taken in the NFL draft, at one-third to half of Jacobs’ anticipated salary. They could be the 2019 version of Philip Lindsay. However, neither is a guaranteed starter and both will have to fight for touches and playing time in their rookie seasons. They will need to perform in training camp and pre-season games to avoid being the 2019 version of Ronald Jones II.

Murray or Haskins? Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders or someone else? Are any of these rookie’s worth drafting in 2019 or should you wait and see and leave them on the free agent list? It won’t be long before we can answer those questions in the inaugural season of Dynasty Owner!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.