Your Luck Just Ran Out if You Drafted Andrew; What to Do to Replace Him in Dynasty Owner

Author: Steven Van Tassell

Andrew Luck’s retirement from the NFL on Saturday night was a shock to almost everyone and especially to the owners who drafted him in millions of fantasy football leagues over the past couple of weeks, including one O.J. Simpson (https://twitter.com/TheRealOJ32/status/1165441329226276866). Luck missed all of the 2017 season with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, but returned for the 2018 season and led the Colts to a 10-6 record and a Wild Card playoff bid. In fantasy terms, Luck was the fourth best QB using the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system in 2018 and projected to be the fourth best scoring Dynasty Owner QB in 2019.

However, Luck had been nursing a calf/ankle injury all through training camp and hadn’t played in the preseason this year. Before this most recent injury, he had dealt with a variety of additional injuries including a lacerated kidney in 2015, a concussion in 2016 and the previously mentioned torn labrum that kept him out all of the 2017 season. It has been as Luck put it in his retirement speech, a “four-year injury cycle”. And now, the injury cycle is over with his retirement.

So, what do you do if you’re like O.J. and drafted Andrew Luck? First of all, hopefully you’re not like O.J. in any way other than having drafted Andrew Luck in a fantasy league. And as far as we know O.J. isn’t in Dynasty Owner since he’s spending his time trying to find the real killers. However, Luck was drafted pretty high in most Dynasty Owner leagues with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 55, the seventh best ADP among QBs, so there are a lot of you out there who need another QB. For those Dynasty Owners, we have some advice on how to move forward and make the best of the situation.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing).

Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

Jacoby Brissett to the Rescue!

Your first move should probably be to drop Luck and secure the services of Indianapolis’ new starting QB Jacoby Brissett if he’s still available. Brissett has an ADP of 126 in Dynasty Owner leagues – most likely because some Dynasty Owners have been drafting after Luck’s retirement announcement. There may also be some leagues in which savvy Dynasty Owners have already grabbed Brissett. If another owner in your league hasn’t gotten to Brissett yet, picking him up may be your best move. Indianapolis does have some good weapons at Brissett’s disposal in the Colts offense with Marlon Mack at RB, T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at WR (I refuse to include Devin Funchess here based on his lacking performance for my fantasy teams in previous seasons) and Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron at TE.

Brissett also won’t cost you a lot of Dynasty Dollars as he is working on the last year of his rookie contract that counts for only $852,708 for Dynasty Owner purposes. And if you drop Luck by September 2nd, it won’t cost you anything as all Dynasty Owner transactions are free until then.

Bottom line, the quickest and easiest thing to do if you drafted Luck is drop him by September 2nd and pick up Brissett.

Other Options

What if Brissett was taken by another Dynasty Owner? What do you do in that situation? With 10 owners per league and many owners drafting 3 QBs, there might not be many options out there unless other owners in your league went for prospects like Daniel Jones (ADP 121) or Drew Lock (ADP 147).

In looking at other options, Dynasty Owners will need to keep in mind their position relative to the salary cap. Aaron Rodgers may be available in your league, but he costs $33.5 million so you’ll need an extra $8.9 million in salary cap room to fit him on your team. It’s also likely that he’s not available in most leagues since his ADP is 106.

Based on ADP and salary, here are some of the most likely QBs available to replace Luck in your Dynasty Owner league, ranked by projected 2019 Dynasty Owner fantasy points scoring:

  1. Russell Wilson (SEA) – 362 points; $21.9 million salary; ADP 122
  2. Kirk Cousins (MIN) – 339 points; $28 million salary; no ADP
  3. Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – 338 points; $27.5 million salary; ADP 157
  4. Matthew Stafford (DET) – 324 points; $27 million salary: no ADP
  5. Andy Dalton (CIN) – 303 points; $16 million salary; ADP 133
  6. Nick Foles (JAX) – 277 points; $22 million salary; ADP 162
  7. Case Keenum (WAS) – 90 points; $3.5 million salary; ADP 141

Russell Wilson is the most intriguing option here as he’s the closest to Luck in production at a slightly lower salary. Remember though, he signed an extension this off-season, so he’ll cost $35 million next year and beyond.

After Wilson, you’ll need at least $2.5 million in salary cap space for any of the next three best options (Cousins, Garoppolo and Stafford). Cousins and Stafford are apparently universally available in Dynasty Owner at press time.

If you have another starting QB on your roster, you could fill Luck’s roster spot by taking a backup fantasy QB such as Andy Dalton or Nick Foles and just suffer the projected decrease in production on your bench at a lower salary. Finally, there’s the wild card of Case Keenum who is likely to score more than 90 points in Dynasty Owner if he can hold on to the starting QB job in Washington.

Conclusions

Dynasty Owners who drafted early and took Andrew Luck to be their Dynasty Owner starting QB were stunned by his sudden retirement over the weekend and now have to scramble to secure a replacement before the NFL season kicks off. And unlike “regular” fantasy football leagues, you can’t just look at the waiver wire and pick the best available QB as you have to factor salaries in as a Dynasty Owner.

The first thing these Luck owners need to do is shed his $24.6 million salary before the end of August and avoid paying the 25% fee for dropping him during the season. Then, they can turn to their attention to figuring out who they can get to replace Luck.

The quickest and easiest option for those affected by Luck’s retirement is to pick up his replacement Jacoby Brissett if he’s available in your Dynasty Owner league. Since Brissett’s salary is only $852,708, he won’t take up much salary cap room and should provide his owners with good production since he has plenty of talented skill position players surrounding him. However, if another owner has already taken Brissett or you simply don’t want him on your team, there are other options out there.

Besides Russell Wilson due to his one-year only salary of $21.9 million, many of the most likely available options will cost you more than Luck’s $24.6 million salary. Others are less costly, but not projected to be as good as Luck so you’re potentially looking at decreased production at the prime position on your team.

What are you going to do Luck Dynasty Owners? It’ll be interesting to see for everyone as we get ready to start Dynasty Owner leagues in less than 10 days!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Dynasty Owner Draft Tips – Part 2

Author: Steven Van Tassell

We are only a few days away from the start of the first-ever Dynasty Owner drafts! For those of us in the beta group, it’s an exciting time and time to start thinking about fantasy football in a new way – as a Dynasty Owner. With drafts coming up and Dynasty Owner being new and different, it’s not surprising that there are more Dynasty Owner draft tips than one article could hold. Therefore, Dynasty Owner proudly presents Draft Tips – Part 2: Electric Boogaloo (If you don’t get the reference, go to https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/electric-boogaloo).

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

Here are some more tips that are hopefully going to help you win your inaugural 2019 Dynasty Owner league championship (unless you’re in my league, then you’re playing for second place!).

QB Scoring is Higher Than Most Leagues, but Some QBs Will Benefit More

In looking at the Player Rankings, the high number of points scored by QBs in 2018 and projected for 2019 using the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system stood out. In 2018, a total of eight QBs scored over 400 points using this system:

  1. Patrick Mahomes (KC) – 558 points
  2. Matt Ryan (ATL) – 465 points
  3. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – 440 points
  4. Andrew Luck (IND) – 433 points
  5. Deshaun Watson (HOU) – 422 points
  6. Jared Goff (LAR) – 410 points
  7. Aaron Rodgers (GB) – 405 points
  8. Drew Brees (NO) – 402 points

The number of RBs, WRs and TEs who scored over 400 points in 2018 under the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system: Zero.

Why? It’s all about the scoring system. The Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system gives you .1 point for every two yards passing and 6 points for a passing TD. Most other fantasy leagues give you 1 point for every 25 yards (or .04 points per yard) and just 4 points for a passing TD. This creates a lot more points for the QBs in Dynasty Owner than most other fantasy leagues.

And it appears that your less mobile, traditional pocket QBs are likely to get more of a bump from the scoring system in Dynasty Owner more than the younger, more mobile QBs.

Let’s take the eighth QB on this list – Drew Brees – and compare his scoring from just those two categories (yards and passing TDs) in Dynasty Owner vs. most other fantasy leagues. Brees passed for 3,992 yards and had 32 passing TDs last season. He was 13th in passing yards and tied for 6th in TDs. His fantasy scoring from these two categories come out as:

  • Dynasty Owner: 391.6 points
  • Most Fantasy Leagues: 287.68 points

That’s a difference of 103.92 fantasy points over the course of a season, or nearly 6.5 fantasy points per game. While the scoring will be higher for all QBs, your traditional pocket passers such as Brees who throw for a lot of yards and a lot of TDs will benefit more than other QBs, like Deshaun Watson. In 2018, Watson was in 5th overall in QB scoring, but just 11th in passing yards with 4,165 yards and his 26 passing TDs were good for 12th place. He had 20 more total points than Brees, but didn’t get nearly the bump that Brees got from the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system.

  • Dynasty Owner: 364.25 points
  • Most Fantasy Leagues: 270.6 points

Despite having more Dynasty Owner points than Brees, Watson’s scoring bump from the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system is over ten points less than Brees’ at 93.65 Dynasty Owner points.

Now suddenly, after taking about value, value and more value, those older, but more expensive traditional pocket passers suddenly might be worth a spot on your Dynasty Owner roster because of the scoring system. Or are all QBs just more valuable because all of them will score more points?

Extra Roster Spots

Quick question. Which one is higher – the number of rounds in the Dynasty Owner draft or the number of roster spots on your Dynasty Owner roster? The answer is the number of roster spots (24), not the number of rounds in the draft (20).

With four extra roster spots that you can fill after the draft is over, proper roster management, including leaving some room for extra practice squad players, could be even more important than in a regular fantasy football league.

The NFL minimum rookie salary is $495,000 annually. That’s means if you want to fill your final four practice squad spaces with the cheapest rookie free agents, you’ll need at least $1.98 million in salary cap room after the draft is over. Even room is needed to fit in that veteran who breaks out late in the season (see Anderson, C.J. last year). Even non-free agent rookies who are available and start to produce unexpectedly will cost you more since and you want to pick their minimum salaries are even higher. Don’t forget about these extra roster spots when you are drafting and leave some salary cap room.

The good news for this year is that after the draft is over, but before the season starts, you’ll have time to tinker. And before the season starts is the best time to tinker with the extra roster spots on your Dynasty Owner team since you don’t have to pay the 25% of the balance of a dropped player’s salary until after August 31st.

Sadly, all of this roster maneuvering might be rough for those people who prefer regular fantasy leagues where every Tuesday morning, you get to pick up the “flavor of the week” (aka the free agent who scores the most fantasy points). And yes, I’m looking at you, Mike Strope.

Don’t Forget about Bye Weeks

Have you done any mock drafts? If so, you may have noticed (or maybe not noticed) that bye weeks are not visible in the mock draft lobby. For everyone, Dynasty Owner is a brave new world and some Dynasty Owners aren’t going to be prepared for this since they haven’t done any mock drafting (or read this article).

Do yourself a favor and put together a list of all of the NFL teams and their bye weeks before your draft or print yourself a bye week cheat sheet like this one (http://printableteamschedules.com/images/nfl/byeweeks.pdf). Or don’t do it.

Then let’s say you get the number one pick in your Dynasty Owner draft and grab the reigning NFL MVP, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Great move, you’re thinking. Top scorer in 2018, plays for high-powered Kansas City offense, Tyreek Hill is back for the whole 2019 season, low salary ($4.1 million) with 3 years left on his contract. What’s not to like?

Your draft keeps rolling and you decide it’s time for a backup QB, but you are starting to worry about the salary cap and don’t want to roll out big money for Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson or any of the other $25 million plus QBs still remaining. Then you see that Kyler Murray is still available, hit the Draft button and you’ve grabbed him as your backup QB. Sweet move! You’re all set, no need for another QB for you since you’ve got two young ones in Mahomes and Murray.

After the draft is over, you’re looking at your roster and suddenly notice that the Chiefs and the Cardinals are on bye in Week 12. Oh no! You can’t start a QB on bye, as that’s a $1 million Dynasty Dollar fine. Oh sh!t! And you have little room left under the $120 million salary cap to get a third QB and the best ones available are Daniel Jones at $6.4 million or Joe Flacco at $22.1 million. Oh cr@p! The curse words really start flying as you think about what you can do to win your Week 12 match-up.

You know what would have saved you from this problem. A bye week cheat sheet. Go print one now.

Conclusions

Including salaries and a salary cap means, there’s a lot more to think about in Dynasty Owner than a regular fantasy football league. You’ve got a new and exciting scoring system that appears to be weighted slightly in favor of one type of QB. It’s those QBs who do most of their damage from the pocket – throwing for yards and touchdowns – over the new, mainly younger mobile QBs who get you fantasy points with both their arm and legs.

Speaking of rosters, besides just your active roster and reserves, you have a practice squad on which you can fit four extra, non-drafted players. That is, if you left salary cap room and can fit them on your roster.

Finally, bye weeks take even greater significance when you have to manage the Dynasty Owner salary cap. If you draft poorly and have two QBs on the same bye week, you can’t just cut another player without salary ramifications and freely pick up a replacement like regular fantasy football. So, make sure to have that bye week cheat sheet at the ready when it’s time for your draft.

Good luck to everyone with your Dynasty Owner draft!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner