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Week 4 Preview: Somebody’s Going to Get Their First Win

Week 4 Preview: Somebody’s Going to Get Their First Win

Author: Steven Van Tassell

It’s Week 4 of the first season of Dynasty Owner and time for the first byes of the NFL season. That means Dynasty Owners have players off this week and need to have replacements for their Active lineups and Bench (unless they want a zero from a player on their Bench). Le’Veon Bell and George Kittle are two of the biggest names whose absence may impact your Week 4 match-up. Hopefully you’ve got a solid Bench and Practice Squad to make up for those missing players.

This is our fourth Dynasty Owner game preview article. We’ll continue pick some players who should be in your Active lineup and some who you should Bench, as well as review last week’s recommendations. We’ll also look at one Dynasty Owner match-up, analyze each team’s starters and bench to see if any switches are needed, highlight other things of interest and importance, such as the creativity of the team names, and make a prediction on the winner and final score of the match-up.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

Activate These Guys

First, let’s look at last week and see how my recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I recommended having the following players Active in Week 3:

  • QB: Jacoby Brissett – 28.9 points (Good recommendation)
  • RB: Frank Gore – 16.9 points (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Nelson Agholor – 22.0 points (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Greg Olsen – 25.5 points (Good recommendation)

Spot on in Week 3! Congratulations to me and everyone who followed those recommendations. Let’s see if I can go 4 for 4 with my recommendations of some players who should be Active in Week 4.

Jacoby Brissett (QB – IND): Brissett rose to the occasion last week, so why not pick him again? He was the 12th rated QB in Dynasty Owner after Week 3, so he’s not guaranteed to be Active in most leagues, but he should be if you have him. He’s still a Free Agent in my league, but shouldn’t be much longer with bye weeks and his performance so far this year. Brissett has thrown for multiple TDs and gotten his Dynasty Owners 20+ points every week. There no reason to expect that to stop against the Raiders at home. He’ll be good enough again that you’ll want him Active this week.

Justin Jackson (RB – LAC): Tony Pollard had 23.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Dolphins last week with over 100 yards rushing. Jackson is averaging 7.9 yards per carry so far this season and the Dolphins have the worst defense in the NFL against the run. Jackson might not start this week, but if the Chargers are blowing out the Dolphins, then expect him to play a lot. Even though he’s not a starter for the Chargers and will be third in line next week after the return of Melvin Gordon, safely put Jackson in your Active lineup this week.

Adam Humphries (WR – TEN): I could have taken the easy route and gone with D.J. Chark of Jacksonville or Terry McLaurin of Washington, but both of those guys are in the top 10 in Dynasty Owner fantasy points for WRs, so they should be Active. Instead, I’ll go with Humphries who had 6 catches for 93 yards (15.3 points) last week against Jacksonville and faces an Atlanta defense this week who’ll be missing their starting strong safety. Humphries should be targeted enough to score some points and a TD will put him into Active territory. Since the Falcons have given up 4 TDs to WRs so far this season, bet on Humphries to get one and make him Active.

Will Dissly (TE – SEA): Death, taxes and start your TE if they are playing Arizona. Those are the three guarantees in life in 2019. The Arizona defense has allowed an average of 24.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to TEs this season and Dissly is a good one with 22 points against the Steelers in Week 2 and 18.2 points against the Saints in Week 3. After three weeks, he ranked 8th among TEs in Dynasty Owner scoring. Last week, Greg Olsen was facing the Cardinals and he was a good recommendation to be Active. This week, it’s Dissly.

Bench These Guys

Now, let’s look at last week and see how my Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). Last week, I recommended having the following players on the Bench:

  • QB: Baker Mayfield – 11.7 points (Good recommendation)
  • RB: Le’Veon Bell – 10.3 points (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Josh Gordon – 14.4 points (Just OK recommendation)
  • TE: Eric Ebron – 7.7 points (Good recommendation)

Three out of four Good recommendations and one Just Ok recommendation. Very well done last week! Let’s hope I can keep it up this week. Here are some players who Dynasty Owners drafted to use in their Active lineup, but would be better if they sat on the Bench in Week 4.

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): Full disclosure – I would have recommended Carson Wentz for the Bench if he wasn’t playing on Thursday. On to Plan B, which is Benching Baker again since it worked out last week. He’s not playing well, and the Ravens defense is very good despite giving up over 300 yards passing to Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes in their past two games. Dynasty Owners who drafted him probably planned on making Mayfield Active a lot, but not this week, leave him on the Bench.

Sony Michel (RB – NE): Everyone who owns Sony Michel in Dynasty Owner got bad news this week when the Patriots put fullback James Develin on Injured Reserve. Michel is a better runner with Develin blocking for him and is largely non-existent in the Patriots passing game with zero receptions so far this year. Michel has also produced two poor games this year (14 rushing yards vs. Pittsburgh and 11 rushing yards vs. the Jets). The Pats play a good defense in Buffalo this week, so the best course of action is to Bench Michel this week.

Stefon Diggs (WR – MIN): Everyone who drafted Diggs probably expected to have him Active almost every week. Unfortunately, he’s only produced 6 receptions for 101 receiving yards and one receiving TD (19.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) so far this year. He was ranked as the 74th best WR in Dynasty Owner through the first three weeks and has to play the Bears defense in Week 4. That’s all I need to know to recommend sitting Diggs on the Bench this week.

O.J. Howard (TE – TB): Coach Bruce Arians called Howard out this week saying, “He can play a heck of a lot better.” Coach is right, but he won’t this week against the Rams. Sadly, for his Dynasty Owners who drafted him to be Active, he’s got less than 100 yards receiving this season with only seven catches and nine targets. The Bucs will continue to rely on WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so Dynasty Owners can safely Bench Howard this week.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – Jazz (Joey) vs. Don.. (Don)

It’s time for our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. This week, we again have two Dynasty Owners looking for their first career Dynasty Owner victory. Since both of them are winless we are withholding their last names to protect them from ridicule. Joey has scored 378.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his three games, but fallen short of victory every time. He’s facing Don who sports the same 0-3 record, but has a team that has scored almost 100 fewer points. Who’s going to get their first Dynasty Owner victory and who’s going to start 0-4?

Some quick thoughts about the match-up:

  • There’s a big disparity in TEs between the two teams. Jazz has two good options in Austin Hooper and Will Dissly. Right now, Hooper is Active, but Jazz should switch to Dissly since he’s playing Arizona who has been terrible against opposing TEs. For Don, it’s a choice between O.J. Howard who is having a bad year so far and Mike Gesicki who plays for the Dolphins. Not great options there.
  • Both of Don’s Bench WRs are predicted to score more points than the ones he has Active. Switching them would yield Don’s team 6.3 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points that he really needs this week. Don should be cautious as T.Y. Hilton is questionable, but if he plays, it’s against the Raiders and he probably should be Active over Stefon Diggs.
  • Jazz has two of the best QBs in all of Texas on his team in Dak Prescott and DeShaun Watson. Tough call on who to start, but Watson is the right move this week by a slight margin according to the Dynasty Owner projections (26.7 for Watson vs. 25.5 for Prescott).
  • Both team names are short and to the point. No wasted characters for either one of these guys!

The exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections has Jazz winning by twenty points (133.2 to 113.2). Jazz should win by a few more points than that (sorry Don) but I predict that both teams won’t reach their score projections.

Final score prediction: Jazz 127.6 vs. Don.. 103.2

Check out the Week 4 Recap article to see who got their first ever Dynasty Owner victory!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

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