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Week 10 Preview: New Blood

Week 10 Preview: New Blood

Author: Steven Van Tassell

It’s Week 10 and there’s a lot of new blood setting lineups in Dynasty Owner for the first time. There’s also going to be lots of new blood in those Active lineups as we have six teams on bye this week (Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, New England, Philadelphia and Washington). Six teams on bye equals lineup problems and decisions for both old and new Dynasty Owners.

This is our tenth Dynasty Owner game preview article, but the first one for many of you so we’ll review what you’re going to read. We will pick a Match-up of the Week and analyze each team’s starters and bench to see if any switches are needed, highlight other things of interest and importance and make a prediction on the winner and final score. We’ll also pick some players who should be in your Active lineup and some who you should Bench, as well as review last week’s recommendations.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

Activate These Guys

First, we’ll look at last week and see how my recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I recommended having the following players Active in Week 9:

  • QB: Matthew Stafford – 36.9 points (Good recommendation)
  • RB: Tarik Cohen – 4.4 points (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: D.K. Metcalf – 27.0 points (Good recommendation)
  • TE: T.J. Hockenson – 8.6 points (Bad recommendation)

Two Good and two Bad recommendations. Better than usual, but still not great. On the positive side, the Good recommendations (Stafford and Metcalf) were really good, while one of the Bad recommendations (Hockenson) was bad, but not terrible. Only the choice of Tarik Cohen was completely off-base. Here are some recommendations of players who should be Active in Week 10.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): He’s only owned in 20% of Dynasty Owner leagues and as the #21 rated QB, you probably shouldn’t have him Active on a weekly basis. However, with six teams of bye and a few usual starting QBs (The G.O.A.T. Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz) amongst them, Garoppolo is a good Active replacement if you own him. He’s averaging 21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game if you take out the sloppy mess of a game versus Washington a couple of weeks ago and is fresh off a 41.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance last week versus Arizona. Garoppolo is a good choice for your Active lineup this week.  

Ronald Jones II (RB – TB): Jones is the new Tampa Bay starting RB after a season high 16.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance against Seattle in Week 9. In his first assignment as the starter, he gets to face an Arizona defense that has allowed an average of 154.9 yards rushing per game with 87.4 yards going to the starting RB. If Jones is truly the starter and gets to carry the ball 18 times again as he did in Week 9 versus Seattle, then he should provide at least an average performance against the Arizona defense. Jones has scored double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in every game in which he’s had 13 or more carries. Expect him to get that many against Arizona and produce a game worthy of being Active.

Zach Pascal (WR – IND): Pascal is only averaging 10.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and is the #47 WR overall in Dynasty Owner. However, he’s the new starter with T.Y. Hilton out for the Colts. In two games without Hilton, Pascal has averaged 15.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, compared to 8.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game when Hilton is in the lineup. Regardless of whether Jacoby Brissett or Brian Hoyer is at QB, expect Pascal to produce and be worthy of having in your Active lineup this week.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): Normally, picking the TE facing the Arizona Cardinals is the smart play here, but neither O.J. Howard nor Cameron Brate has done anything this year, so I’m looking elsewhere. Gesicki had the best game of his short NFL career last week with 15.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions for 95 yards). With rookie WR Preston Williams out for the rest of the season, it looks like Gesicki is the number two option in the Dolphins passing game behind DaVante Parker. The Colts defense is allowing an average of just under 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to TEs with a low of 7.6, so Gesicki probably has a good floor this week. Put Gesicki in your Active lineup with confidence this week.

Bench These Guys

Now, let’s look at last week and see how my Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). Last week, I recommended having the following players on the Bench:

  • QB: Kyler Murray – 29.5 points (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Josh Jacobs – 26.0 points (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Terry McLaurin – 7.9 points (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Mark Andrews – 4.1 points (Good recommendation)

Two Good and two Bad recommendations for players to Bench. Not as good as usual, but ok. I’ve been better at projecting who should sit on the Bench as opposed to be Active in the past. Here are some players who Dynasty Owners drafted to use or have been using in their Active lineup, but would be better if they sat on the Bench in Week 10.

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): Another tough week to decide on a Bench QB. We’ll go with Prescott who has thrown 8 INTs this season and is playing against the Vikings defense that has 8 INTs on the season, tied for 6th place. The Vikings defense is only allowing opposing QBs an average of 225 yards passing per game. Prescott is averaging 297 yards passing per game, but if you remove his 400+ yard performances against the Giants and Packers, that average drops to 252 yards per game. And he might be without Amari Cooper for the game as Cooper is undergoing an MRI on his knee. Prescott will need to throw for at least 2 TDs to be worthy of having in your Active lineup. He won’t, so go ahead and leave him on the Bench.

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): Henry does most of his damage on the ground. However, he is averaging only 71 yards per game with a high of 100 yards back in Week 4 versus the Falcons. The Chiefs defense has held their opponents’ starting RB to just 71 yards last week (Dalvin Cook) and 67 yards the week before that (Aaron Jones). Both of those guys are as good or better than Henry and it’s unlikely Henry will exceed those numbers on the ground, making it difficult to trust him in your Active lineup.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): Boyd is averaging only 8.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game the past three weeks, including 3 receptions for 10 yards (4.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) back in Week 6 against the Ravens. That performance came with Andy Dalton at QB and this week, there’s a new starting QB for the winless Bengals in rookie Ryan Finley. Probably not an upgrade for Boyd, so leave him on the Bench this week and see if Finley is the answer.

Jimmy Graham (TE – GB): Graham is the 13th ranked TE in Dynasty Owner scoring an average of 7.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, so he’s a fringe starter who might be pressed into your Active lineup this week. The targets aren’t there for Graham this season as he only has been targeted more than five times once. And he’s pretty touchdown dependent to be worth having Active as he has only scored more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the three games in which he’s scored a TD. The Carolina defense has only given up two TDs to TEs this season, so bank on Graham staying out of the end zone and leave him on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – Wannabees (David) vs. Turd Burglars (Ryan)

It’s time for our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. This week, it’s old vs. new with an undefeated original Dynasty Owner squad (Wannabees) playing a new Dynasty Owner in the Turd Burglars. The Wannabees haven’t just been winning because some of the Owners in their league weren’t active enough, they’ve scored the fifth most points in all of Dynasty Owner and are a contender in the Chase for the Ring. But to win the Ring, they need to keep winning their league games and the 3-6 Turd Burglars are standing in the way of that this week.

Some quick thoughts about the match-up:

  • The Wannabees have eight players on bye, including likely Active players in Deshaun Watson and Leonard Fournette. All of eight of them are safely parked on the Practice Squad and in an impressive display of roster management, none of his Active or Bench players are on bye.
  • We can’t fault the Turd Burglars new owner for his roster construction, but having only four WRs in total on his team will really hurt him this week as both Will Fuller and Dede Westbrook are on bye, but on his Bench. Matters might get worse at WR for Randyas he’s got Amari Cooper in his Active lineup and Cooper missed practice to have an MRI on his knee. If Cooper misses the game, then the Turd Burglars will need to either pick up a new WR from the Free Agent Auction or take a zero in their Active lineup.
  • The Wannabees made a big trade to shore up his WR corps, but gave up a great RB to do so, trading Aaron Jones for Cooper Kupp. That leaves him starting David Johnson this week and putting Emmanuel Sanders back on the Bench. As David put it, “I could have used Jones this week.” We’ll see if the trade costs him any points on Sunday.
  • The Turd Burglars have a definite advantage at QB with Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan. In comparison, the Wannabees are starting Daniel Jones with Ryan Finley on the Bench. Even if we count DeShaun Watson who is on bye this week and on Chuck’s Practice Squad, the Turd Burglars still have better QBs.

The exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections based on their current lineups has the Wannabees winning by a margin of 130.5-113.9. Both teams will fall short of those projections this week, especially the Turd Burglars who are expected to get 33.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from the returning Patrick Mahomes and 16.7 from Amari Cooper. However, the Wannabees will still win by a solid margin and remain undefeated and in the Chase for the Ring.

Final score prediction: Wannabees 125.6 vs. Turd Burglars 98.1

My prediction record is 5-4 for the season with a three game winning streak. Four in a row? Check out the Week 10 Recap article next week to find out who won the Match-up of the Week.

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

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