Week 14 Preview: Who’s Making the Playoffs?

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Author: Steven Van Tassell

It’s Week 14, the final week of the Dynasty Owner regular season and a lot of Owners are asking that very question. There are lots of Match-ups across all Dynasty Owner leagues with playoff implications. Who’s getting in? Who’s playing who in the playoffs next week? And who’s going to win their league and have a chance to win the Chase for the Ring? We’ll find out more once we figure out who’s making the playoffs.

We have a twist this week for our Match-up of the Week as we are going to analyze all of the Match-ups with playoff implications in one Dynasty Owner league (League #53). Through lucky scheduling, all six teams in contention for the playoffs in League #53 are facing off against one another. In one Match-up, we have the top seed and only team guaranteed to make the league playoffs facing off against the third ranked team. In the second Match-up, we have the second and fourth ranked teams, so whoever wins is in and the other team is sweating out the result of our third Match-up of the fifth and sixth seeds. In that Match-up, the loser is out, while the winner needs to score a lot of points and hope to win a tiebreaker.

This is our fourteenth Dynasty Owner game preview article and the final one of the regular season. Since we have three Match-ups to analyze, we’ll take a shorter look than normal at each one, but still make a prediction on the winner and final score for all three. We’ll also pick some players who should be in your Active lineup and some who you should Bench, as well as review last week’s recommendations.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth .25 points for every 10 yards. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

Activate These Guys

First, we’ll look at last week and see how my recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I recommended having the following players Active in Week 13:

• QB: Mitchell Trubisky – 33.3 points (Good recommendation)
• RB: Derrius Guice – 29.7 points (Good recommendation)
• WR: Cole Beasley – 23.0 points (Good recommendation)
• TE: Jack Doyle – 19.3 points (Good recommendation)

A perfect 4-0 week with the Active recommendations! This is my second perfect week this season with the first one coming way back in Week 3. Not only were all four of these picks good, but all four players finished in the Top 10 at their respective positions. Let’s see if we can have a repeat performance with my recommendations of players who should be Active in Week 14.

Jacoby Brissett (QB – IND): Brissett is only averaging 16.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since returning from his knee injury. He averaged 23.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his first seven games of the season. Brissett did throw for over 300 yards against Tennessee last week, a significant improvement from his first two weeks back after being injured. Brissett should revert back to his early season form this week against a Tampa Bay defense that is near the bottom in passing defense, so make him Active.

Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL): Carolina gave up 248 yards rushing to the Redskins last week and are allowing an average of 137.5 yards per game on the ground. This week’s beneficiary of Carolina’s generosity will be Freeman. Freeman didn’t play against Carolina back in Week 11, but the collection of backup RBs the Falcons put out there still got a total of 13.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Freeman will do better than that and should be Active.

Dede Westbrook (WR – JAX): Westbrook has been a solid WR for the Jaguars with Gardner Minshew II at QB. He has scored double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in six of the eight games that both he and Minshew have appeared in. He also has caught both of his TD passes this season from Minshew. Westbrook has averaged 14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points the past three weeks as well, so he’s on a bit of a roll. Westbrook could be a nice addition to the Active lineup this week for his Dynasty Owners.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): Gesicki has been playing very well over the past five weeks, averaging 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over that time. That’s enough to get him up to the #19 TE in Dynasty Owner for the season. He scored 15.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions, 95 yards receiving) in the Dolphins’ last game versus this week’s opponent, the Jets. The Jets defense will likely be without safety Jamal Adams, which should help Gesicki as well. Gesicki has been worthy of being Active recently and should be Active this week.

Bench These Guys

Now, let’s look at last week and see how my Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok) for Week 12 when I recommended having the following players on the Bench:

• QB: Jameis Winston – 12.4 points (Good recommendation)
• RB: Leonard Fournette – 18.1 points (Bad recommendation)
• WR: Kenny Golladay – 25.8 points (Bad recommendation)
• TE: Darren Fells – 10.3 points (Bad recommendation)

Not the best of weeks with only one good recommendation and three bad ones. Hopefully this week’s Bench recommendations are better. Here are some players who Dynasty Owners drafted to use or have been using in their Active lineup, but would be better if they sat on the Bench in Week 14.

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): Murray is coming off one of his worst performances of the season last week against the Rams, as he only scored 14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Next up is the Steelers defense that is giving up an average of only 13.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to opposition QBs in the ten games since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. Back in Week 5, the Steelers held Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to only 11.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and intercepted him three times. Expect Murray to have another bad performance this week and even though he’s the #7 QB in Dynasty Owner, he should be left on the Bench.

Todd Gurley (RB – LAR): Gurley has been getting a bigger workload recently because Sean McVay has stopped “being an idiot”. Gurley received 20+ touches in two of the Rams’ past three games after not getting 20 in any game prior. However, while he’s being used more, he’s not been lighting the fantasy world on fire as he’s just averaging 12.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the four games since the Rams’ bye week. That’s slightly below his season long average of 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Gurley has been only average in night games this season so far, scoring an average of 11.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the Rams’ night games. Gurley might get more usage this week, but he’s likely to keep scoring only a dozen points, not enough to warrant being Active.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): Lockett should have been in this space last week as he picked up a Blutarsky against the Vikings on Monday night. It wasn’t just last week as he’s only averaged 6.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his two games prior to the Blutarsky. If you remove his two biggest games of the year (40.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 9 versus Tampa Bay and 33.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 3 versus New Orleans), Lockett is only averaging 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That’s not good enough to be Active, so leave Lockett on the Bench this week.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL): With a limited number of good TEs out there, it’s tough to find someone in the Top 10 who should be on the Bench every week. Dynasty Owners can’t really sit either of the top guys (Kelce or Kittle) even if they don’t have a great match-up. Slightly further down on the list we have Mark Andrews who is the #4 TE in Dynasty Owner and plays Buffalo this week. Andrews has been solid most of the season, but still has put up five games of less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, including in his last tough match-up against an AFC East team (New England). Andrews scored only 4.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Patriots. Buffalo has held down some good young TEs in recent weeks, allowing Noah Fant of Denver to only score 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Mike Gesicki of Miami to only score 5.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The Bills will hold down Andrews as well, so put him on the Bench.

It’s time for our first Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week.  We have the only team guaranteed to make the playoffs (Sobriety Is Boring) going up against the third place team (Kramerica Industrys). A win for Kramerica and they are safely in the playoffs at 10-4 and possibly the top seed, while a loss leaves them at 9-5 and hoping they have enough points to win a tiebreaker.

Some quick thoughts about this match-up:

• Sobriety Is Boring is relying on a Tampa Bay QB-WR stack of Jameis Winston and Chris Godwin plus a pair of Green Bay Packers (Aaron Jones and Davante Adams) to carry them to victory. That’s over half of his Active lineup, so if the Tampa Bay and Green Bay offenses fail to produce, Sobriety Is Boring will be in trouble.
• Kramerica Industrys is currently starting the wrong WRs with Marvin Jones and Michael Gallup Active and Davante Parker and Robert Woods on the Bench. Switching them around is recommended and would yield Kramerica another 4.6 projected Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
• Another recommended switch for Kramerica would be to get Jared Goff in his Active lineup at QB and Bench Josh Allen who’s playing against Baltimore.

The exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections based on the current lineup for each team has Sobriety Is Boring winning a pretty close game by a 133.2-122.6 margin. This one seems correct to me. Sobriety Is Boring should win a close game and secure the #1 seed in the playoffs.

Final score prediction: Sobriety Is Boring 128.7 vs. Kramerica Industrys 119.8

The second Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week features two teams with identical 9-4 records, but different playoff hopes. By virtue of a league high 1663 points, Fuego sits in second place, while Grbalj is in fourth place. Fuego will make the playoffs even with a loss due to his lead in points, but Grbalj is only guaranteed a playoff spot with a victory.

Some quick thoughts about this match-up:

• Grbalj currently has Michael Thomas on his Bench. Yes, he had a season low 10.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week and the Saints are playing against the 49ers, but he still should be Active as the #1 WR in Dynasty Owner. If not changed by Sunday, this decision could cost Grbalj some badly needed points.
• Fuego has a lot riding on Monday Night Football with three Active players (Saquon Barkley, Zach Ertz and Jake Elliott) playing then, plus Alshon Jeffrey and Jordan Howard on the Bench. That’s a lot of players in one game!
• Not a really good kicker to be found on either team. Jake Elliott, Aldrick Rosas, Brett Maher and Austin Seibert are your Active and Bench kickers for this Match-up and the highest rated one is Seibert at #15 for the season.

The exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections based on the current lineup for each team has Fuego defeating Grbalj 138.4-119.1 margin. I think Fuego maintains his #2 spot in the playoffs with a larger than anticipated margin of victory.

Final score prediction: Fuego 140.6 vs. Grbalj 100.4

Finally, we have a must-win situation for both teams to even make the playoffs with a pair of 8-5 teams in Ring My BELL and New Mexico Mountain. Ring my BELL has the better chance of making the playoffs, but he needs to win, hope that Grbalj loses and that he can outscore Grbalj by 80 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’s a tall mountain to climb! Speaking of mountains, New Mexico Mountain is looking at a 5th place finish at best since he is almost 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind Ring My BELL and 180 behind Grbalj.

Some quick thoughts about this match-up:

• Taysom Hill or Drew Lock. That’s the QB choice for New Mexico Mountain. Lock is the safer play as he’ll likely score some points, while Hill is Active right now and more of a dart throw. Since New Mexico Mountain needs lots of points and pretty much a miracle to make the playoffs, he’s decided to take a chance and play Hill.
• There is injury concerns for both teams as Ring My BELL has Josh Jacobs and his fractured shoulder Active, while New Mexico Mountain has Adam Thielen on his Active roster, even though he’s listed as doubtful with the hamstring injury that has kept him out for a month. Fortunately, each team has quality replacements on their Bench and time to switch.
• In contrast to the Fuego-Grbalj Match-up, this one will be done completely on Sunday. We may know by then if Grbalj has scored enough points to advance to the playoffs or if he needs some scoring from Aldrick Rosas and Sterling Shepard on Monday Night Football.

The exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections based on the current lineup for each team has Ring My BELL getting their win by a score of 118.1-104.9 over New Mexico Mountain. I agree with the prediction of Ring My BELL as the winner but don’t really see either team reaching its projections.

Final score prediction: Ring My BELL 106.5 vs. New Mexico Mountain 93.1

My prediction record is 7-6 for the season after missing with my Week 13 prediction. Can I get all three Match-ups correct and finish on a high note or will I miss all three and finish with a below .500 record? Check out the Week 14 Recap article next week to find out who won all three Match-ups and made the playoffs!