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Author: Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
Two weeks into the NFL and Dynasty Owner season, we’re starting to see patterns, trends and groups forming. In the NFL, you’ve got your likely playoff teams sitting at 2-0 (Ravens, Chiefs, Bills), a bunch of teams at 1-1 and some teams with playoff aspirations sitting at 0-2 who are worried about falling out of the playoff hunt in Week 3 (Texans and Eagles). Within the 2-0 group, you have teams like those listed above with visions of the Super Bowl dancing in their heads, along with teams who are just happy to be 2-0 at this point (Las Vegas Raiders). Both the Chiefs and Raiders might both be 2-0 and in the same division, but they are worlds apart in their likelihood of reaching the Super Bowl. Sorry Chucky.
It’s the same in Dynasty Owner. You’ve got groups of teams in every league at 2-0, a group of teams sitting at 1-1 and still another group of teams at 0-2. Since everyone started in the same spot, nobody should have been in rebuilding mode at the start of the season, but two games in, it’s possible some Dynasty Owners are thinking about 2021 if they can’t pick up a victory in Week 3. And even within the 2-0 group of teams in every league, you’ve got teams who are high in the Chase for the Ring standings and those who are 2-0, but aren’t anywhere close to making it onto the Chase leaderboard. Those teams might both be 2-0, but they are probably going their Separate Ways (Worlds Apart) in Dynasty Owner. Anybody else have a flashback to the days when MTV showed videos like the Journey – Separate Ways (Worlds Apart) video? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LatorN4P9aA) If you don’t remember, just watch it in all its cheesy 80s glory.
Every week of the regular season and playoffs, we’ll present a set of players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup as well as one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. We won’t recommend a kicker to Start or Bench though and these won’t be the obvious choices for Starters, like go ahead and start Patrick Mahomes, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Travis Kelce (as if you weren’t going to do that already if you have them). Instead, these will be guys to Start who might not be highly owned or who were drafted to be a backup. For the Bench or Practice Squad choices, we’ll find typical Starters who shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups or past performance against a team. We’ll also review my Week 2 recommendations and see how those players fared.
Finally, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. For the Match-up of the Week, we will look at the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce. If you want your Dynasty Owner team to be featured as the Match-up of the Week in the future, just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and maybe it’ll be your matchup highlighted sometime in the future.
All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.
For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of September 25th.
These Guys Should be Starters This Week
First, let’s take a look at how my Week 2 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):
- QB: Mitchell Trubisky – 17.1 (Bad recommendation)
- RB: Joshua Kelley – 13.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
- WR: Tre’Quan Smith – 13.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
- TE: Logan Thomas – 6.6 (Bad recommendation)
Week 2 was better than last week, but still had only two Just Ok recommendations out of four, while the Mitchell Trubisky and Logan Thomas recommendations were bad. Both Joshua Kelley and Tre’Quan Smith were at the bottom end of being worthy to start, finishing as the #25 RB and #29 WR respectively so both fall into the Just Ok category. Trubisky was the #24 QB and a low-end Bench option at best, while Thomas was the #29 TE and best left on the Practice Squad. Let’s try to get at least one Good recommendation in Week 3 out of these four:
Carson Wentz (QB – PHI): Despite his ADP of 124.2, Wentz is nothing but a backup for most Dynasty Owners at this point. A few are even releasing him and using an Amnesty Provision or taking the $32 million Dynasty Dollars hit (25% of the $128 million remaining on his contract) as his ownership is down to 66%. While the Bengals defense has only let up 31.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first two games (11.1 for Tyrod Taylor and 20.6 for Baker Mayfield), Wentz will have both of his starting tackles (Lane Johnson and Jason Peters) for a second straight game. The offensive line allowed zero sacks to the Rams last week and if Wentz gets comfortable behind his line, he should be able to find Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders enough to make him worth being a Starter, even if the Eagles run the ball a lot as predicted.
Rex Burkhead (RB – NE): I’m likely going to regret this recommendation but with James White looking out for the Patriots versus Las Vegas after the tragedy involving his parents, Rex Burkhead becomes someone you can put in your Starting lineup this week. I know in the Week 2 recap article that I said you can’t trust a New England RB for fantasy purposes, but I think that with a full week of practices and time to game plan for Burkhead, he takes White’s role for a week. He had 8.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week (2 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 47 receiving yards) without the benefit of a week to plan. Belichick and McDaniels will do better than that this week making Burkhead worthy of being a Starter despite being a New England RB and only owned in 28% of Dynasty Owner leagues.
Adam Humphries (WR – TEN): It’s a good thing that I can’t include Thursday games because one of two Jacksonville WRs (Keelan Cole or Laviska Shenault Jr.) would have gone in this spot. Neither was spectacular with 8.9 and 8.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points respectively on Thursday night versus the Dolphins. Let’s pick on the Vikings instead since their pass defense has been horrible this season against WRs (33 receptions, 405 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs). Most of that damage was done by Green Bay with Davante Adams, Allen Lazard and even Marquez Valdes-Scantling catching TD passes in Week 1, but even Zach Pascal had a TD for Indianapolis last week. The Tennessee Titans will be playing in Minnesota this week and QB Ryan Tannehill has been throwing the ball very well over the first two games of the season. The Titans receiver with the most receptions has been Adam Humphries (11 vs. 10 for Corey Davis and 8 for Jonnu Smith). Humphries is only owned in 5% of Dynasty Owner leagues, largely because of his $9 million annual salary. If you’re paying his salary, you might as well get some Dynasty Owner fantasy points from Humphries so put him in your Starting lineup this week.
Drew Sample (TE – CIN): C.J. Uzomah is out for the rest of the season after tearing his right Achilles last week. An injury that probably went unnoticed because it happened on Thursday and then a bunch of more prominent guys got injured later on in Week 2. In his place, Sample had 7 catches for 45 yards (11.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). All total, Bengals TEs have 35.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (22.7 for Uzomah and 13.2 for Sample), which would rank them as the #5 TE so far this season if just one of them had all those points. Sample should get all, or almost all, of the TE targets this week versus a Philadelphia defense that allowed 3 TDs to Rams TE Tyler Higbee last week. Sample was owned in just 15.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues last week and is now owned in 82.5% of leagues. If you picked him up, you probably should use him as a Starter this week.
These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week
Next up are the Week 2 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations. How did they fare (Good, Bad or Just Ok)?
- QB: Carson Wentz – 12.8 (Good recommendation)
- RB: Melvin Gordon – 16.4 (Just Ok recommendation)
- WR: Terry McLaurin – 25.5 (Bad recommendation)
- TE: Noah Fant – 17.7 (Bad recommendation)
Two weeks and only two good Bench recommendations so far with another one coming in Week 2 with the selection of Carson Wentz, who was well outside of the Top 12 QBs. Melvin Gordon was the #17 RB so that was Just Ok as he was a low-end FLEX Starter. The inclusion of Terry McLaurin and Noah Fant on the Bench list were Bad ideas as both of them finished in the Top 10 at their position, so let’s not speak of them again. Hopefully we can do better with this set of players who should be sitting on the Bench or hanging out with the Practice Squad in Week 3.
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): Consensus first round Dynasty Owner draft pick (ADP 9.8) who signs a 4 year contract extension that averages $39 million per year and kicks in next year. That was Watson’s off-season. Now that the games have started, the difficult early season schedule combined with the impact of losing DeAndre Hopkins has kicked in and is impacting Watson’s fantasy production. After two weeks, he was ranked as just the #18 QB in Dynasty Owner. Now, he has to go on the road to play against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense in Week 3. No thank you! Hopefully you picked up a quality, high-salary backup QB and can insert him into your Starting lineup this week and leave Watson on the Bench.
Todd Gurley (RB – ATL): Gurley was one of those “don’t draft him” guys for me this year after he finished the 2019 season as the #16 RB in Dynasty Owner and the Rams released him. Even though he signed a one-year, $6 million contract with the Falcons and has just Ito Smith and Brian Hill behind him on the depth chart, I still wanted no part of him this year. Many Dynasty Owners disagreed and drafted him high (ADP 45) as a RB1 or RB2. Now with injuries to several high-profile RBs, Dynasty Owners are left with a tough decision about starting Gurley again this week after he put up just 19.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (117 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 2 receptions, 1 receiving yard) over the first two weeks. He’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry so far this season and that’s not likely to go up significantly against the Bears defense. Don’t stick with him just because you drafted him so early, sit Gurley on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week.
Robert Woods (WR – LAR): Robert Woods meet Tre’Davious White. He’ll likely be shadowing you this week and preventing you from catching passes from Jared Goff. He’s only allowed five receptions all year (admittedly against the Jets and Dolphins, but still pretty impressive). Mr. Goff will be getting pressured by the Buffalo Bills defense and likely dumping passes off to slot receiver Cooper Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee instead of challenging Mr. White. Woods also had more yards rushing in Week 2 than receiving (19 rushing vs. 14 receiving). Not something I want from a $6.8 million WR with an ADP of 68.8. Woods won’t get totally shut out this week, but he’s probably not worth a spot in your Starting lineup either.
Darren Waller (TE – LV): Waller torched the New Orleans Saints defense for 28.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points on Monday night (12 receptions, 103 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) and is the #2 TE in Dynasty Owner after two weeks. That means he’s on the Must-Start list, right? Wrong. Waller should be on your Bench this week because he’s playing the New England Patriots, not the New Orleans Saints again. The Patriots defense is just good against TEs. Last year, TEs averaged 4 receptions and 43 receiving yards per game versus them and this year, the Dolphins and Seattle TEs have combined for just 4 receptions and 39 receiving yards. Bill Belichick is always looking to take away a team’s top options, meaning stopping Josh Jacobs from running the ball and preventing Waller from catching passes. Plus, the Raiders are flying cross-country on a short week to play a 1 PM (Eastern) game, which is not good for their chances to go 3-0 or Waller’s chances to be a Top 12 TE. Bench him.
Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – The Human Fund vs. DC Dawgs
It’s time for our third Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season, but the first one featuring a team from the current Chase for the Ring standings. The Human Fund is the #1 team right now, but they face a Week 3 challenge from another 2-0 team in their league, DC Dawgs. In contrast, DC Dawgs sit in 816th place – that’s not a typo – in the Chase standings (You’ll have to trust me and Don on that one since my standings don’t go that low). Sorry to say it, but this looks like a mismatch based on the Chase standings alone. And based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, it looks like The Human Fund should win pretty easily over the DC Dawgs (162.4 to 120.6).
Let’s look each team’s current Starting lineup to see how much of an advantage that gives The Human Fund:
The Human Fund has the advantage at almost every position and an overall advantage of 34.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. DC Dawgs has a decidedly Green Bay flavor in their Starting lineup with three Packers (Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard and Davante Adams). If the Packers score a lot of points on Sunday night against New Orleans, we could have an upset by the DC Dawgs.
On to the Bench where Dynasty Owners get 20% of their Bench scoring added to their overall point total. Each team has the following players on their Bench right now.
The Human Fund advantage extends to the Bench. They are projected to outscore the DC Dawgs by an 88-50.3 margin and have higher projections from every Bench position.
This matchup will be over after Sunday Night Football as neither team has anyone in their lineups right now on either Baltimore or Kansas City. Both teams will have to wait until after Monday Night Football is over to check the final Chase standings though. Be sure to check out the Tuesday recap article to see who actually won and if The Human Fund are still on the top of the Chase for the Ring Leaderboard and most importantly, if your team was good enough to make it there as well.
Conclusion
The Human Fund is expected to win and move to 3-0 on the 2020 Dynasty Owner season, but will they remain at the top of the world in Dynasty Owner (aka the Chase for the Ring standings)? Even if DC Dawgs pulls the upset and The Human Fund loses, they might stick in the Top 25 with a solid points performance. However, you have to win your league to win the Ring so just racking up points isn’t enough.
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