By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
We are halfway through the 2020 Dynasty Owner season! During the summer, nobody was sure if we’d get this far, but while COVID-19 rages on and players are still testing positive for it, the NFL has kept chugging along (with some tweaks and changes). Dynasty Owner runs through the first 16 weeks of the NFL season (13 regular season games and 3 weeks of playoffs), so this week is the halfway point for everyone who’s making it to the Championship Game in their League. Of course, you are! Am I right?
Congratulations if you are in that position, but if you’re not, there’s still time for your team to heal up from its injury woes and make a second half push for the playoffs. If that’s not likely to happen, then it’s a dynasty that you’re building, so explore trades to acquire players who will be the key to your team’s future. Young players with cheap contracts or draft picks can be acquired from Dynasty Owners looking for victories in the second half of the 2020 season.
To help you in your quest to win the first week of the second half of the 2020 Dynasty Owner season, there will be a set of players presented at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup as well as one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. We won’t recommend a kicker to Start or Bench though and these won’t be the obvious choices for Starters, like go ahead and start Russell Wilson and Alvin Kamara (both are the #1 players at their position, so they are in your Starting lineup). Instead, these will be guys to Start who might be ranked outside the top players at their position, not be highly owned or who were drafted to be a backup. For the Bench or Practice Squad choices, we’ll find typical Starters who shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups or past performance against a team. We’ll also review my Week 7 recommendations and see how those players fared.
Finally, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. For the Match-up of the Week, we will look at the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce. If you want your Dynasty Owner team to be featured as the Match-up of the Week in the future, just tweet me (@SteveVT33).
All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.
For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of October 30th.
These Guys Should be Starters This Week
First, let’s take a look at how my Week 7 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):
- QB: Joe Burrow – 46.7 (Good recommendation)
- RB: Justin Jackson – 10.5 (Just Ok recommendation)
- WR: Tim Patrick – 7.4 (Bad recommendation)
- TE: Darrell Daniels – 0.0 (Bad recommendation)
It’s been three consecutive weeks with two Bad recommendations, one Just Ok recommendation and one Good recommendation. The QB recommendation of Joe Burrow was very good as he finished as the #3 QB in Dynasty Owner for Week 7. Justin Jackson was Just Ok with 10.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which made him a very low end RB2 or FLEX starter. The Bad recommendations were at WR where Tim Patrick only got 7.4 points and TE where Darrell Daniels had a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). It’s been five consecutive weeks of at least one Good and one Just Ok recommendation, but only once have there been two of each. Let’s see who’s recommended as Starters in Week 8.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): Mayfield had his best week of the 2020 season by far last week against the Bengals. He threw 5 TDs passes and scored 44.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (297 passing yards, 5 passing TDs, -1 rushing yards, 1 INT). That was more than double the points from his best previous week (21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus the Cowboys in Week 4). He did all of this without any production from Odell Beckham Jr. who was injured in the first quarter and is out for the rest of the season. Even with his great performance last week and having played in all seven games this season with no bye yet, Mayfield is still the #21 QB in Dynasty Owner. This week, the Browns play against a Raiders defense that has allowed 39.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to QBs over the past three games and 29.4 points per game for the entire season. Baker and the Browns appear to be on a roll so get Baker into your Starting lineup.
Jamycal Hasty (RB – SF): Injuries have not been kind to the San Francisco 49ers in general and to their RBs in particular. Right now, their leading rusher on the season, Raheem Mostert, is on the Injured Reserve (IR) list, their second leading rusher Jerick McKinnon is dealing with a rib injury and their third leading rusher and last week’s Value Player of the Week Jeffery Wilson is expected to be placed on IR soon after suffering a high-ankle sprain injury last week. We didn’t even mention Tevin Coleman who has been on IR since Week 3. Three different RBs have led the 49ers in fantasy points in a single game this season and if you add up 49ers RB with the most points per game, they would be the #2 RB in Dynasty Owner this season with 146.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind only Alvin Kamara (171.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Put Hasty in your Starting lineup so you get all of the points when he makes it four different RBs to lea the 49ers in Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week.
Marquez Callaway (WR – NO): It’s a big week in Dynasty Owner for Callaway. First, he appears as the #2 target in Jay Poundsee’s Free Agent Auction Targets column (https://9jn.41d.myftpupload.com/2020/10/week-8-free-agent-auction-targets/) and now, he’s being recommended as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup for Week 8. His ownership has jumped from 12% on Tuesday to 38% now, but that means he’s still available in a majority of Dynasty Owner leagues. Last week with both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders out, Callaway was Drew Brees’ top target. He was targeted ten times and had 15.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (8 receptions, 75 receiving yards). Sanders is definitely out but Thomas could play. Even as the WR2 for the Saints, feel comfortable getting Callaway in your Starting lineup if you own him or plan to pick him up in the Free Agent Auction.
Ryan Izzo (TE – NE): The defenses who do the worst job defending TEs this season so far have been the Falcons, Bengals, Saints, Jaguars and Bills. The Falcons are playing on Thursday, so we can’t use any Carolina TEs. The Jaguars are on bye, so they are out. The Bengals play the Titans and Jonnu Smith the #5 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner, while the Saints play the Bears and Jimmy Graham who is #6. The only team left in the top five worst defenses against TEs are the Bills who are playing the New England Patriots. The Patriots aren’t known for featuring the TE since the departure of Rob Gronkowski, but with Julian Edelman out, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will be looking for other receivers to step up. Even with bad weather anticipated, the Patriots are going to throw the ball and Ryan Izzo, who is only owned in 3% of Dynasty Owner leagues, could be a good target for Cam Newton. It’s another dart throw pick here and while Darrell Daniels didn’t work out last week, Izzo will be good enough this week to be a Starter.
These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week
Next up is reviewing the Week 7 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.
- QB: Ryan Tannehill – 23.5 (Good recommendation)
- RB: James Robinson – 33.7 (Bad recommendation)
- WR: CeeDee Lamb – 0.1 (Good recommendation)
- TE: Hayden Hurst – 12.8 (Bad recommendation)
A split decision with two Good and two Bad recommendations. On the Good side, CeeDee Lamb had no receptions and just one rushing attempt for one yard. It didn’t help that Dallas starting QB Andy Dalton got a concussion and rookie seventh round draft pick Ben DiNucci finished up, but regardless, Lamb almost put up a Blutarsky. Tannehill’s 23.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points doesn’t look totally bad on the surface, but there were a lot of QBs (15 to be exact) with more points and several teams scored 40.0+ points. His 23.5 points this week didn’t cut it so that was a Good recommendation. Hayden Hurst was a top 10 TE with 12.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and James Robinson had himself a great game with 33.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, second only to Jeffery Wilson. Both of those recommendations were Bad. On the positive side, it’s the second time with two Good recommendations. However, it’s halfway through the season and I’m still looking for my first Good RB Bench recommendation. Let’s see if it happens in Week 8.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): A good friend of mine and fellow huge Patriots fan is guaranteeing a New England victory this week. If that’s going to happen, the Patriots defense is going to have to hold Josh Allen to the 19.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points he’s been averaging the past three weeks rather than the 40.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points he averaged in the first four. Overall, Allen is the #4 ranked QB in Dynasty Owner, but he hasn’t been a quality Starter in three weeks. Allen has turned the ball over four times (3 INTs and 1 fumble) in those past three games. The Patriots create turnovers as they are tied for third in the NFL with 12 takeaways (8 INTs and 4 fumbles). And the weather is supposed to be terrible in Buffalo on Sunday with rain and 20 MPH winds probably limiting how effective passing will be for both teams. This might be a Patriots-biased recommendation with some weather and stats to back it up, but I’m making it anyways. Bench Allen this week.
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN): Gordon is the #26 RB in Dynasty Owner, but with bye weeks and injuries, he’s likely finding a Starting spot either as a RB2 or FLEX for most Dynasty Owners this week. Even if Phillip Lindsay is out, Gordon isn’t recommended because he scores 75% of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points running the ball, while the Chargers give up only 8.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game on running plays. They have only allowed one rushing TD this season to a RB, tied for the fewest in the league. Gordon might be looking to show the Chargers that they shouldn’t have let him go via free agency, but that’s not enough to keep him in your Starting lineup this week.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): The Vikings rookie is the #16 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner but that is largely built on two games. He had 30.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 3 versus Tennessee and 39.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 6 versus Atlanta. In the other four games this season, he has 31.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined. The Green Bay defense is allowing only 149 yards per game receiving to WRs so far, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They also held Jefferson to just 4.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 26 receiving yards) in the season opener. Not only is this a tough matchup for Jefferson, it’s also tough for Vikings QB Kirk Cousins who has thrown only 4 TDs in 3 games versus the Packers since 2019 and averages just 204 passing yards per game. With Cousins having troubles against the Packers and Jefferson relying on two big games to fuel his Starting WR status, it’s best to not bet on Jefferson to have a big game and leave him on the Bench.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET): Hockenson has scored 4 TDs so far this season in just 6 games, including the game-winning TD in the Lions 23-22 last second victory over the Falcons last week. That score earned him the clutch scoring bonus which helped to make him the #4 TE in Dynasty Owner right now. In contrast to the Atlanta defense, which is the worst against TEs, the Colts are this week’s opponent for the Lions, and they are the best. The Colts are giving up an average of only 5.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to TEs and only once (Austin Hooper with 10.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 6) have they given up double digits. Playing the Colts defense is enough to warrant leaving Hockenson on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week.
Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – Russell Wilson’s War vs. Barley Boyz
It’s time for our eighth Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season. This week, we feature a team in the Top 10 in the Chase for the Ring who is not in first place in their League. Russell Wilson’s War is that team as they are #10 in the Chase with 1,110.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but with just a 5-2 record halfway through the regular season. Their opponent are the Barley Boyz who sport a 6-1 record but are not in the Top 25 of the Chase standings. Overall, we can see that the game is expected to be very close.
Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the margin of victory for Russell Wilson’s War is less than 1 point (148.7 to 147.8). Which team has the Starting lineup advantage in this matchup?
A virtual tie from the Starting lineups! Russell Wilson’s War has a mere 0.1 point advantage. With the exception of Travis Fulgham and the kickers, there are mostly high draft picks in the Starting lineup for both teams. No wonder they have a combined 11-3 record. The projections give Russell Wilson’s War an advantage at QB (Josh Allen over The G.O.A.T. Tom Brady) that is offset by the Barley Boyz advantage at TE (George Kittle over Darren Waller). The Bench scoring should be close as well, let’s take a look.
Russell Wilson’s War has an advantage of 56.8 to 53.2 in Bench scoring despite having Jarrett Stidham as his backup QB and Gerald Everett projected to score zero points. Probably because Tyler Lockett and his projected 20.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points are on the Bench. For the Barley Boyz, hopefully they have a third kicker or can pick one up since Sam Sloman of the Rams was released earlier in the week and will not score any points. Since this matchup is projected to be so close, it could come down to Bench scoring from a QB or kicker.
At the halfway point of the season, it’s nice to have a matchup of teams looking for their League championship and competing for the Ring. Hopefully you are in the hunt for both as well. If not, there’s still half of the season for your team to get healthy, on a roll with a few victories and into the playoffs. At that point, anything can happen. Or maybe you are looking forward to 2021 and looking to trade some veteran players to another Dynasty Owner for younger players with cheaper salaries or future draft picks. Even though the season is half over, you’re looking to build a dynasty so keep working.
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