The Top Trade Targets for All Teams

By: Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl)

With the 2020 Dynasty Owner season coming to a close, now is the time to start looking for pieces that will put your team over the top, whether that be for this season, or future seasons. Trades can completely make or break any team involved, but there are some trades that can have minimal impact on either roster, basically becoming a wash. The art of trading is very risky business in the fantasy world, just imagine feeling great about your team making a trade, and the next week the player you just traded for gets hurt and is out for the season, leaving your team in shambles with you not only losing your new star, but what you traded to get him as well.

When trading for players of high value you will have to pay a premium to acquire that player, which often will create a hole on your team, but can improve it at the same time. Trading is by far the most important element of building your team, outside of the rookie drafts each season, and free agent targets. If you are a contender facing an injury at this point in the year trading is the only option to truly replace, or replicate the production you lost, while free agents can make up some of the missed production, 9 times out of 10 that player will only produce about half of what the original player would have leaving a huge hole to fill each week.

Another one of the beauties of trading is that no matter your teams record there is always a trade out there that will make sense. Teams that aren’t contending should be every bit as busy as the contending teams trying to unload expensive veteran contracts for young players, and draft capital.

This article will be breaking down what I feel are the top trade targets no matter your team’s record. Each category will be broken down by position and will contain anywhere from 2-5 players each position. I will break the trade targets up into 3 separate categories of teams, being teams competing in The Chase for the Ring, teams who are in the playoffs pushing for a championship, and teams that are looking at a rebuild.

  • The Chase for the Ring category will consist of players with a salary under $4,000,000, players with extremely high upside, and age will not matter if they are producing.
  • The playoff team targets will be players with a salary under $8,000,000, and players will have at least a few more years left in their prime for future potential.
  • The category for rebuilding teams will not be worrying about any players salary and will only be looking at players just coming into the league, as well as draft capital.

Always remember when trading, to factor in salary, as well as the other owner’s team needs before trying to execute a trade. My personal preference with trading is to message the owner you would like to trade with and start a conversation the more you talk the easier trading becomes with that owner. Owners often have extremely different opinions on certain players, so learn what the other owner prefers before sending a deal the other hates, and you lose a future trading partner.

Chase for the Ring Trade Targets

Quarterback
  1. L. Jackson- 236.7 pts, $10,003 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $2,367,912
    • Coming into this season Jackson was easily a top 4 pick fresh off his MVP campaign. Jackson has disappointed thus far, but with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way he has a ton of upside. If Jackson finds his 2019 form, he could push your team over the top
  2. C. Newton- 193.3 pts, $9,053 (DD$/PT), 1 Year $1,750,00
    • Cam Newton has seemingly been a top 8 fantasy QB since entering the league as the number 1 overall pick for Carolina. While those days seem to be long gone Cam is still a viable fantasy starter for at least this season. Cam will more than likely be the easiest, and cheapest signal caller to target right now. I can’t imagine many owners you will face will have a better bench QB than Newton. If I were competing and had Burrow, Newton would be my top target!

(Note- these will be the same targets for playoff contenders)

Running Back
  1. J. Conner- 139 pts, $5,686 (DD$/PT), 1 Year $790,381
    • Conner has been a tough one to predict all season long with the amount the Steelers throw the ball. The lack of production in recent weeks should lower the asking price on Conner, so strike while the iron is hot. The running back landscape is such a wreck if you can secure someone with the guaranteed work of Conner you do it every time.
  2. Joe Mixon- 100.6 pts, $13,544 (DD$/PT), 1 Year $1,362,544
    • While Mixon not playing in recent weeks makes him a more than risky acquisition, he may also win you your league. Burrow went down with a season ending injury on Sunday, which should mean the Bengals will lean heavily on the run the rest of the way. If Mixon can get healthy he is a potential steal, but there is a chance we don’t see him at all the rest of the season.
  3. C. Carson- 104 pts, $5,926(DD$/PT), 1 Year $616,282
    • As each day passes Carson is looking more and more likely to get back on the field this week. Before the injury Carson was one of the most effective backs in football and was also one of the key components to making his offense go. I look for Carson to get back to himself as soon as he’s back on the field.
  4. R. Mostert- 77.6 pts, $37,371 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $2,900,000
    • Before going down with multiple injuries this season Mostert looked back to his 2019 form. It seems most of his production came on 2 massive runs early in the year, only to be hurt shortly after each. If Mostert can return healthy, and get the 49ers run game back on track he could be a league winner.
Wide Receiver
  1. W. Fuller- 189.2 pts, $13,430 (DD$/PT), 1 Year $2,541,078
    • With Watson at the helm for the Texans any wide receiver getting targets in the offense will have good fantasy value. Fuller has remained the top target throughout the season and finishing Sunday’s game with 6 catches on 8 targets for 80 yards, was another solid game under his belt. You should be able to buy Fuller cheap right now as he hasn’t produced crazy numbers this year, but he always has that potential.
  2. C. Kupp- 155.8 pts, $6,148 (DD$/PT), 1 Year $957,940
    • Has anyone in the NFL looked more like Wes Welker than Cooper Kupp? This kid has had a 20-target game this season, and while he doesn’t score many touchdowns, he more than makes up for it with receptions. With Kupp set to get a new deal you may be able to leverage that to get him rather cheap.
  3. D. Moore- 168.5 pts, $16,574 (DD$/PT), 3 Years $2,792,829
    • DJ Moore is probably one of the most undervalued receivers right now making him a somewhat cheap buy. He is coming off a good game which hurts a little, but with Bridgewater coming back you may be able to play that game off as a fluke. I see Moore as a great buy for any team right now, and he may finish this season as a WR1!
Tight End
  1. M. Andrews- 117.4 pts, $7,353 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $863,290
    • Andrews has been really disappointing for owners, especially where they drafted him at in the off season. If possible, try to use that frustration to buy Andrews low. The tight end market has been a wasteland this season outside of Kelce, and if you can even the playing field a little by grabbing Andrews then do it every time. He had a great game against the Titans, and that should continue into the coming weeks.
  2. J. Smith- 111.9 pts, $6,939 (DD$/PT), 1 Year $776,572
    • Smith is another tight end I would consider at least close to being on Andrew’s level. All off season Jonnu was touted as a potential breakout at the position, and he has done just that. Smith is the only other option at trying to cancel out Kelce. If the Titans get back to targeting Smith more, he becomes a great buy.

Playoffs A Lock and Pushing for A Championship

Quarterback – See Chase for the Ring targets.
Running Back
  1. J. Jacobs- 174.6 pts, $17,086 (DD$/PT), 3 Years $2,983,350
    • Jacobs has quietly put together one of the better seasons by a running back this year. I don’t see Jacobs having the upside to help chase contenders, but he certainly can help win playoff games any given week. Jacobs also has a great future ahead of him in a surging offense making him an easy buy.
  2. M. Sanders- 102.1 pts, $13,100 (DD$/PT), 3 Years $1,337,544
    • There may be no better time to buy Miles Sanders than right now. It is the perfect storm, a bad game coming off injury, and playing for a horrible team. Sanders has all the talent in the world and is more than capable of helping a team through the playoffs. Philly has also shown they believe he is a true 3-down workhorse. I would attempt to buy Sanders before he gets going.
  3. M. Gaskin- 97.5 pts, $6,684 (DD$/PT), 3 Years $651,694
    • With Gaskin on IR at the moment you may be able to get him cheaper than usual. I would look and see if his absence is hurting the owner, and if that’s the case strike while the iron is hot. Gaskin came out of nowhere this year, but the Dolphins have shown a lot of trust in him, which makes him an intriguing buy down the stretch for any contender.
Wide Receiver
  1. T. McLaurin- 183.3 pts, $5,247 (DD$/PT), 3 Years $961,918
    • McLaurin has been nothing short of phenomenal since entering the league last season, despite horrible quarterback play. If I am heading for the playoffs and have a player like Cede Lamb on my roster, I am offering him plus for McLaurin, and hoping he accepts. McLaurin could help push just about any team over the top.
  2.  R. Woods- 178.3 pts, $38,137 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $6,800,000
    • Up to this point in 2020 Woods has been slightly disappointing with some up and down games. With Goff finally starting to find a rhythm it should help Woods produce more moving forward. When trying to trade for Woods attempt to use his salary against the owner, which may only make him fractions cheaper. Woods offers a great stable floor for playoff teams.
  3. D. Slayton- 111.3 pts, $6,185 (DD$/PT), $688,497
    • Over the past few weeks, the Giants have looked like a completely different football team than we seen the first half of the season. With the offense starting to roll it should open the passing game up much more than it has been through 11 weeks. If things continue in this direction look for Slayton to have some huge boom weeks, which are always great in playoff matchups.
Tight End
  1. D. Goedert- 61.3 pts, $22,937 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $1,406,068
    • I think it’s possible that we have seen the last of the Ertz era in Philly. Ertz has been slowly being phased out of the offense over the last season and a half, with it being obvious early on this season. Goedert has looked awesome in his short career and seems to be the guy Philly wants moving forward. If you need to see it for yourself as I did just look at Eagles highlights while both Ertz, and Goedert play, when you do it becomes fairly obvious who the better player is. If Carson Wentz can start playing like the Wentz, we are used to seeing Goedert could be a candidate to absolutely explode during the playoffs. I would look to buy Goedert no matter the status of your team, as he seems poised to be a consistent fantasy tight end for many years to come.

Let’s Face It You Need to Rebuild

Quarterback
  1. B. Mayfield- 192 pts, $42,555 (DD$/PT), $8,170,745
    • I have yet to try and trade for a starting signal caller in Dynasty Owner, but I’m sure you will need to pay a premium for any starter. If you’re able to acquire Mayfield for cheap I would highly recommend it. At worst you listen to Steve Van Tassel and have 3 starting quarterbacks, but if he regains form you have yourself a lottery ticket. Mayfield is another realistic replacement for Burrow owners. DO NOT TRADE BURROW FOR MAYFIELD!!!!
  2. D. Jones- 171.5 pts, $37,411 (DD$/PT), 3 Years $6,416,014
    • Jones started the year off horribly to put it nicely. While this is true it was something, we should have seen coming with how tough the beginning half of his schedule was. Jones has been able to turn things around in recent weeks, and if he is able to continue, he may hold value after his initial contract. If you are a rebuilding team you should hoard any cheap players you can, and Jones fits that bill to a tee.
Running Back
  1. J. Taylor- 123.5 pts, $15,848 (DD$/PT), 4 Years $1,957,287
    • Coming into the 2020 draft most fantasy experts had one of two backs at the top of their list, Jonathon Taylor, or Deandre Swift. Taylor has been a major disappointment so far this season, which makes him a great buy right now. If you can pick up Taylor for an aging veteran, you should do it 10 times out of 10. Taylor has the potential to be a starter on your team for many years, just don’t let a few bad games distract you from that.
  2. J. Dobbins- 87.3 pts, $16,407 (DD$/PT), 4 Years $1,432,359
    • With Dobbins going on the Covid list there seems to be no better time to buy. If you can find an owner who was counting on him then try to get Dobbins before he returns, and it’s too late. The Ravens started the year with a committee approach, but in recent weeks we have seen Dobbins become the clear favorite. When it mattered Sunday against the Titans it was Dobbins carrying the ball.
  3. C. Akers- 46.2 pts, $33,403 (DD$/PT), 4 Years $1,543,258
    • Akers has been by far the most disappointing rookie this season. If you are attempting to buy Akers it is purely a move geared towards next season with hopes they at least give him a shot. Even with Akers healthy over the past few contests the Rams just haven’t given him the ball. The Rams did the same thing last year with Henderson, so let’s hope Akers finds himself in a similar situation. Akers has the talent to produce in this league, which is a great reason to grab some shares of him while he’s cheap.
Wide Receiver
  1. C. Lamb- 141.1 pts, $23,601 (DD$/PT), 4 Years $3,502,503
    • If you are a Lamb fan, I suggest you pay what is needed to get him now, because it’s the cheapest he will ever be. I see Lamb becoming the next Hopkins, and he should be viewed that way by any rebuilding team trying to obtain him. Whatever you would pay to have Hopkins on your roster as a rookie is about where you should set your limit when trying to trade for Lamb. It’s highly unlikely, but if you can use the uncertainty of Dak against the owner to get Lamb a little cheaper than I would no questions asked.
  2. P. Williams- 74.8 pts, $7,685 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $588,333
    • The injury mixed with low level production should make Williams a great buy heading into the end of the year. While it won’t be easy to get Williams due to his unbelievably cheap salary, and future potential it is a must try for any rebuilding team. Williams started to find a groove just before getting hurt this year and looked great last season before the injury. If Williams comes back healthy and performs well, he becomes a fantastic buy.
  3. J. Reagor- 44.9 pts, $73,890 (DD$/PT), 4 Years $3,317,669
    • The Philadelphia Eagles selected Jalen Reagor just a few slots ahead of Justin Jefferson in the 2020 draft. Up to this point it has looked like the Eagles made a huge mistake passing on Jefferson, but we haven’t had the chance to see Reagor healthy just yet. If Reagor can get his health figure out he should become a great fantasy asset to have, and with his health in question he should be easier to acquire.
Tight End
  1. M. Gesicki- 92.9 pts, $17,793 (DD$/PT), 2 Years $1,652,981
    • Gesicki is one of the best young, up and coming tight ends in the NFL. He is now at that magic age at the tight end position of 25 years old and has had a solid season through 11 weeks. While Gesicki has put up some complete duds this season he has also had a few boom games to keep things fun. The mix of Gesicki’s talent, and Tua’s potential makes Gesicki a very interesting buy for rebuilding teams. He is at the point in his career he may even be ready help teams make a playoff push.
  2. C. Kmet- 23.4 pts, $80,959 (DD$/PT), 4 Years $1,894,444
    • The Bears spent a high draft pick in the 2020 draft on Cole Kmet out of Notre Dame. Yet even after spending the pick they did, the Bears still went out and signed 47 other tight ends (47 is an exaggeration, but it is close), seemingly pushing Kmet down the depth chart before he even had a chance. While the Bears have yet to see it almost everyone else that watches football has, and that is Kmet looking like the best tight end for the Bears, as a rookie. The time to buy Kmet is right now, before the bears figure out what they have in their young tight end, and he starts putting up numbers. If Chicago ever finds a quarterback this kid has massive potential.

Conclusion

These targets should give you some ideas on what types of players you should be looking at to improve your team. If some of these players happen to be unavailable by trade, then you at least have a starting point on what type of player to look for. Let’s say you are a chase contender going after McLaurin, but the owner refuses to trade him then you pivot and look at players near his salary with similar production.

I hope to see the Dynasty Owner trade feed on Twitter blow up after this article, and before the transaction freeze in week 13. Always remember to try and make your trades appealing, and beneficial for both parties involved, if you do that you will always have other owners ready to trade with you. One other quick thing I want to cover for rebuilding teams, do not forget if you win the losers bracket tournament in your league you will get the 13th pick in your next rookie draft. Make the trades while you can, and as always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 12 Preview – Thankful

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Happy Thanksgiving to all of my fellow Dynasty Owners! Hope you had a great day, enjoyed way too much Thanksgiving dinner and all three Thanksgiving Day football games and have plenty of leftovers for the Sunday games and Monday Night Football. Despite 2020 being a difficult year in a lot of ways, we’ve had a full season of the NFL so far and I’m thankful for that.

A full season of the NFL equals a full season of Dynasty Owner. I hope that I speak for all Dynasty Owners when I express my thanks to everyone associated with Dynasty Owner. They should be acknowledged more often, but definitely this week, so let’s thank everyone associated with Dynasty Owner.

Starting with Paul for thinking up the concept years ago, bringing it back to life in late 2018, taking a chance and hiring me as a writer, and providing his full backing in every way possible since then. Thanks to Tim for running the day to day operations, keeping everything going with development of the game from Paul’s ideas to what it is today, all while hosting multiple podcasts and attending countless meetings. Thanks to Uncle Don for posting all of the articles from me and the other writers, providing excellent customer service to every Dynasty Owner with questions or issues and probably doing many other things that none of us Dynasty Owners know anything about to keep things going. Thanks to Seth for being the best podcast host in the business and his advice that has helped me to improve my appearances (believe it or not, they would be worse without his help). Thanks to the developers for creating the Dynasty Owner app, for all of the improvements over the course of this year and squashing all of the bugs that the beta users keep finding. And finally, thanks to my fellow Dynasty Owners for joining me in playing, promoting and supporting Dynasty Owner and to all of you who actually take the time out of your day to read these preview and recap articles and watch or listen to the podcasts. Thank you!

Two Dynasty Owners in particular who are thankful to be involved in Dynasty Owner are featured in the weekly Match-up of the Week. Both are in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring and play each other this week. They probably aren’t thankful for having to play each other, but regardless, we’ll look at their game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 25th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 11 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Alex Smith – 11.0 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Gus Edwards – 0.6 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Jalen Guyton – 1.4 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Jared Cook – 1.6 (Bad recommendation)

That’s just terrible – no Good or even Just Ok recommendations in Week 11. There’s not a lot to say here. Smith was the best of a Bad batch of picks and he was only better than five other QBs this week. J.K. Dobbins had the week predicted for Gus Edwards and both Jalen Guyton and Jared Cook had one reception each for minimal yardage. Thankfully Week 11 is over, and we can move on to the Week 12 recommendations:

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): Taking a QB in the playoff hunt playing his best football of the season against a worse team is pretty much a no-brainer at this point. Believe it or not, all of that is true about Daniel Jones this week. The Giants are thankful that despite a 3-7 record, they are in the thick of the NFC East playoff race. Their record is a half game better than the 2-7-1 record of their opponent this week, the Cincinnati Bengals. Jones had been playing better before the Giants’ Week 11 bye as he scored an average of 21.25 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 7-10 after averaging 12.3 points per game in the first six weeks of the season. It’s a positive trajectory for Jones heading into a game against the Cincinnati Bengals who will be without star rookie QB Joe Burrow and RB Joe Mixon. The Bengals might have trouble moving the ball and give Jones plenty of opportunities to score his Dynasty Owners some fantasy points and earn his spot in your Starting lineup.

Frank Gore (RB – NYJ): Frank Gore has been a steady, but unspectacular player for the New York Jets this season. Especially since Le’Veon Bell was released and Adam Gase stopped calling plays for the Jets offense. Gore has averaged 12 carries per game and 4.1 yards per carry since Gase gave up the play calling and 11.8 carries per game with an identical yards per carry since Bell was released. He’s been splitting time with La’Mical Perine since then but still received at least 10 carries per game. In terms of fantasy points, it’s been 8.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points since Bell was released and 8.0 since Gase stopped calling plays. Not a bad guy to have for your Bench. However, this week with Perine on the Injured Reserve list with a high ankle sprain and no other RBs worth playing on the Jets roster, it’ll be Gore’s time to shine against one of his former teams (Miami). Get Gore into your Starting lineup this week.

Jalen Reagor (WR – PHI): Since Seattle played on Thursday night last week, we couldn’t pick an Arizona player in this spot against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Thankfully, the Seahawks play Monday night this week so we can use an Eagles player in this spot. Even though outside of Travis Fulgham for a short stretch, none of their WRs have been worth having in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, the matchup is too good to pass up. Kind of like that third (or fourth) helping of Thanksgiving dinner. So even though picking a guy named Jalen didn’t work last week, the choice this week is Jalen Reagor. The Eagles #1 draft pick has been working his way back from injury and started to produce with 13.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 8 versus Dallas, 8.7 points in Week 10 versus the Giants and 9.2 points in Week 11 versus the Browns (the Eagles had a bye in Week 9). Those numbers are only Bench worthy, but Reagor will step it up against the porous Seattle defense and be worthy of being in your Starting lineup this week.

Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): If this list was purely based on pre-season ranking, then Hooper wouldn’t be allowed to appear here. However, after 11 weeks of the 2020 season, Hooper hasn’t been producing as a Starting TE as he’s only averaging 7.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the eight games he has played. In the three games he played before missing two games due to a appendectomy, he put together a series of good games and averaged 11.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He hasn’t done well in the two games since his return with 2.1 points in Week 10 and 6.3 points in Week 11. However, he gets to play a Jacksonville defense that allowed 13.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Eric Ebron of Pittsburgh last week. Hooper should perform like the TE who signed with the Browns for $10.5 million per year, so get him into your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 11 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Aaron Rodgers – 29.8 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Todd Gurley – 3.9 (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Tyler Boyd – 17.5 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Robert Tonyan – 15.4 (Bad recommendation)

Three Bad recommendations in a week for the first time this season. Thankful to Todd Gurley or else it would have been four. The other three were bad as Rodgers finished in the Top 10 QBs of the week, Boyd was in the Top 20 WRs and Tonyan was a Top 5 TE. Gurley’s 3.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy point week was the only Good recommendation and the first Good RB recommendation on the season. There are still a few weeks to go and improve our Bench recommendation record. Here are the choices for guys to Bench in Week 12.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): The third time’s a charm, right? Rodgers has been in this spot twice already this season and scored 43.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1 versus Minnesota and 29.8 points last week versus Indianapolis. And he’s been great all season, scoring 25.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in nine out of ten games. However, he hasn’t faced the Chicago Bears yet this season. Last year, Rodgers had 16.9 and 18.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Bears. So far this season, the Bears have faced three Top 12 QBs (Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan) and only allowed an average of 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Tannehill was the best with 20.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’s a lot of games with QB scoring in the teens, so that’s where Rodgers will probably end up this week, which means he should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN): For the entire season, Gordon is the #20 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, averaging 12.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the nine games he has played in. However, it’s been a tale of two seasons for Gordon as he averaged 16.65 points per game before his car accident and just 9.3 points per game since the accident. He did have 17.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week versus the Dolphins but needed 2 TDs to get that many points. This week, he faces a New Orleans Saints’ defense that allows only 66 yards per game rushing to opposing RBs. Since Gordon hasn’t been very involved in the passing game since his accident (9 receptions for 42 yards), he needs to get his points on the ground and that’s tough against New Orleans. Bench Gordon this week.

Mike Evans (WR – TB): Evans is averaging a career-low 12.5 yards per reception this season with The G.O.A.T. as his QB. And according to Ian Rapoport, the G.O.A.T. hasn’t completed a deep pass since Week 7 against the Las Vegas Raiders (https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1331297137011908611/photo/1). While Evans has scored an average of 15.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since the Raiders’ game, he has gotten TDs in three of those four games. The Kansas City defense has allowed the third fewest yards to WRs, the sixth fewest receptions and is tied for sixth in fewest TDs to WRs allowing only 8 TDs to them all season. Evans has needed to score TDs to keep up his #17 WR ranking in Dynasty Owner this season as he has scored a total of only 18.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the three games he has gone without a TD. Even though the Chiefs have allowed 31 points in each of their past two games with 4 TDs per game, just one TD in each game has been to a WR. No TD for Evans equals not good enough to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup. That’s what happens this week so leave Evans on your Bench.

Jonnu Smith (TE – TEN): As the #5 TE in Dynasty Owner, Jonnu Smith has also been very TD-dependent this season. He has 7 receiving TDs this season, plus a rushing TD in Week 10, but hasn’t been getting a lot of targets, receptions or receiving yards. He is averaging 4.9 targets, 3 receptions and 33.8 receiving yards per game to rank outside the Top 12 in all three categories (14th in targets and 15th in both receptions and receiving yards). Since the Titans’ unexpected bye back in Week 4, he has only averaged 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game compared with 16.4 points per game before their bye week. This week, he faces the Colts defense that gave up its first TD to a TE last week versus Green Bay. It’ll be tough for Smith to be the second TE of the season to score against the Colts, so he should be on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week –

Russell Wilson’s War vs. Swamp Donkeys

The twelfth Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season is a clash of two teams in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring Standings. The 10-1 Swamp Donkeys are the #16 ranked team in the Chase, while their opponent, Russell Wilson’s War, have just a 7-4 record but are ranked #23. Both teams have consistently been in the Chase Standings and The Swamp Donkeys were our leader after Week 1.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the points will be rolling in. Russell Wilson’s War is projected to win by a score of 160.6-155.3 over The Swamp Donkeys. Is that advantage for Russell Wilson’s War coming from his Starters, his Bench or both? Let’s check out the Starters first and see.

The slightest of Starting lineup advantages goes to Russell Wilson’s War as they are projected to score 143.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points compared to 142.1 for The Swamp Donkeys. The Swamp Donkeys have only one Starter (Mark Andrews) playing on Thursday, while Russell Wilson’s War have none right now, so both teams should be able to relax and enjoy dinner and football on Thanksgiving without worrying too much about their Dynasty Owner teams.

Russell Wilson’s War extends their advantage when Bench scoring is factored in, especially at the QB position where they have Ryan Tannehill on their Bench compared with Jake Luton for the Swamp Donkeys. Russell Wilson’s War is likely pretty thankful for that edge at Bench QB, especially with the Wednesday AM news that Luton was benched for Jacksonville in favor of Mike Glennon.

Conclusion

Thanks to everyone who made it this far and read everything written this week. Week 12 will have already started by the time any Dynasty Owners have read this and hopefully you enjoyed your Thanksgiving, and your team is ahead in its match-up after the three Thanksgiving Day games.

I’m thankful that there were two Chase team playing each other this week as it made the Matchup of the Week choice pretty easy. If you need a win in Week 13 to make the playoffs and want to be featured next week, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33). It’s back to normal next week with the recap article on Tuesday and a preview article on Friday. We will also have the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl). Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) will be back on Wednesday with his insights as well. We are thankful to everyone who follows each one of us as well as Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be the weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) with Seth and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and the weekly podcast series with myself and Tim on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific). Both will be streaming live on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 561 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 11 Recap: Another Low Scoring Week

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Last week, a total of 640 points were scored in the NFL across 14 games for an average points scored per NFL team of 22.9. This week, scoring dipped slightly lower with teams scoring a combined 637 points, or 22.75 points per team. The highest scoring team of the week was the Kansas City Chiefs and they scored “only” 35 points. It was the first week time since Week 4 in which no single team had 40 or more points as back in both Weeks 3 and 4, the highest scoring team of the week had 38 points. In another sign of low scoring, four teams (Detroit, Jacksonville, Atlanta and Cincinnati) had less than 10 points this week, more than any other week so far in the 2020 season.

Unlike last week, that didn’t translate into fewer fantasy points for most Dynasty Owner teams as the same quick analysis as last week with my two leagues has different results. In my two leagues, 11 out of 24 teams scored more points in Week 11 than their average (up from 5 last week). Scoring in both leagues was higher in Week 11 than Week 10 by 16.2 points per team on average in one league and 13.0 points in the other league. That extended to all Dynasty Owner leagues as the scoring average in Week 11 was 120.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy point per team compared to 108.6 points in Week 10. And at the top, we had at least one team with over 200 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11 after none in Week 10.

That’s because Week 11 featured more likely Dynasty Owner Starters and fewer Bench and Practice Squad players at the top of the scoring heap than Week 10. In addition, the top scoring players may have had slightly fewer points than last week, but there were more of them. In Week 10, 14 different players had 25.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That increased to 20 players in Week 11.

Even though the past two weeks have been lower scoring, readers will still get the same amount of information in this article. That’s right, we still will name a Dynasty Owner Player of the Week and a Value Player of the Week, highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out if the Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week was low scoring and take our weekly look at the Chase for the Ring standings.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 24th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our eleventh Dynasty Owner Player of the Week for the season is: Deshaun Watson

Watson had fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week than any other Player of the Week winner all season. It was the first week this year in which no player scored at least 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and only the second time overall (Week 13 of 2019 had Aaron Rodgers win Dynasty Owner Player of the Week with just 38.6 points). It was also far fewer points than when he won with 58.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 5 of last year. Watson had 39.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (344 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 36 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD) this week. However, Watson didn’t have the most passing yards (Jared Goff had 376 passing yards), the most passing TDs (7 QBs had 3 passing TDs), the most rushing yards by a QB (both Lamar Jackson and Taysom Hill had 51 rushing yards) or the most rushing TDs by a QB (Taysom Hill had 2 rushing TDs). He did have the most rounded game overall and scored the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points to win this honor.

  • Week 11 Points: 39.8
  • 2020 Salary: $3,463,570
  • Cost per Point: $87,024

Congratulations Deshaun on winning your first Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor of 2020 and becoming the fifth player to win the award at least once in each of the past two seasons.

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The eleventh Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week for 2020 is: Cooper Kupp

We had to wait until Monday Night Football was over to award our Value Player of the Week. Cooper Kupp had plenty of points early in the Rams’ victory over the Buccaneers, but Aaron Jones of the Packers was the Value Player of the Week until late in the fourth quarter. Kupp had 25.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11 receptions for 145 receiving yards), which equals $37,566 per point based on his 2020 salary of $957,940. That per point total for Kupp was the highest in both seasons of Dynasty Owner by far, almost $9,000 higher than DK Metcalf back in Week 8 at $28,591 cost per point. There weren’t a lot of low salary players with 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week so Kupp was the winner.

  • Week 11 Points: 25.5
  • 2020 Salary: $957,940
  • Cost per Point: $37,566

Congratulations Cooper on your first ever Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor!

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been in one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 11. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Travis Kelce because barring injury or bye week, he should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might be Free Agents or on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 11 when they should have been.

QB: Derek Carr (LV) – 32.3 points

In a low-scoring week, the Raiders-Chiefs game was a shootout with the teams combining for the most points of Week 11 (66) and two clutch scoring events at the end of regulation. It also featured two of the highest scoring QBs of the week with Derek Carr surprisingly outscoring Patrick Mahomes (32.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Carr versus 32.0 for Mahomes). Carr had fewer yards, but one more TD to score his 32.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (275 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 6 rushing yards, 1 INT) to score more than the #1 player in Dynasty Owner. After this week’s performance, Carr is just outside of the Top 12 QBs at #13, but for Week 11, he should have been in your Starting lineup.

Honorable mention to Jared Goff. While his average this year is 22.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per week, Goff hasn’t been very consistent with four games of 30.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points mixed in with five games of 20.0 or less points. After two bad weeks, Goff came back with a good one, scoring 30.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (376 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 2 INTs, 1 fumble) in the Rams’ 27-24 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. Good Goff showed up this week for the Dynasty Owners in 13% in which he is rostered and was worthy of being in your Starting lineup.

RB: J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – 18.5 points

Before testing positive for COVID-19 on Monday, J.K. Dobbins had himself quite a game on Sunday. Dobbins bucked the low scoring trend by scoring more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than he had in any game this season – even more than Week 1 in which he had 2 TDs and three weeks ago when he had over 100 rushing yards for the first time. This week, he had 18.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (70 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 2 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 1 2-pt conversion). However, Dobbins dominated the rest of the Ravens backfield in touches (17 for Dobbins versus 3 for Gus Edwards and 2 for Mark Ingram) and was the Ravens RB to have in your Starting lineup this week.

WR: Damiere Byrd (NE) – 26.3 points

Congratulations to Damiere Byrd on having his first 100 yard receiving game in his fifth NFL season. He also scored his first TD as a member of the New England Patriots and finished with 26.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions, 132 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD, 11 rushing yards). This was easily the best game of his career. Before Week 11, he had only been averaging 6.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game this season, including a Blutarsky (0.0 points) against the Ravens in Week 10. Byrd was a late round flyer for most Dynasty Owners (ADP 266.7) that finally paid off, if they actually put him in their Starting lineup.

TE: Jordan Akins (HOU) – 13.3 points

Since returning from an ankle injury then a concussion, Akins had been outscored by fellow TEs Darren Fells and Pharaoh Brown in consecutive weeks. He had gone from averaging 9.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in four games before his injuries to only 2.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games after returning. However, he reverted back to his early season form in Week 11 versus New England with 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions for 83 receiving yards). He may have dropped off the radar of his Dynasty Owners after the previous two weeks and as a result, not have been in their Starting lineups. That would be a shame as he should have been a Starter this week.

Honorable mention to Richard Rodgers of the Philadelphia Eagles. Rodgers signed with the Eagles at the end of training camp after being cut by Washington and earned playing time with the injuries to both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Goedert is back and Ertz is expected back soon, so Rodgers might not have another week like he did in Week 11 with 12.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). He was undrafted in Dynasty Owner but had played well enough to be picked up by many teams as his ownership in Dynasty Owner leagues is currently 44%. If you spent the Dynasty Dollars to pick him up, hopefully you had him in your Starting lineup.

K: Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) – 13.0 points

Unlike last week when kickers were largely immune from the low scoring nature of the week, no kicker really stood out this week and none had as many points as Tyler Bass and Matt Prater put up last week (18.0 points). Blankenship had the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the week with 13.0 as he made FGs of 32, 37 and 43 yards in regulation and a 39 yard FG in overtime for the victory. He also made both of his PATs and missed a 50 yard FG. He was the only kicker this week to get a 3-point clutch scoring bonus, a bonus that put him on top of the kicker scoring list for the week. He was just outside of the Top 12 kickers at the start of Week 10, but should have been in your Starting lineup this past week.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one player who probably was a Starter, but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who didn’t score too many Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in Week 11.

QB: Matt Ryan (ATL) – 5.6 points

Matt Ryan scored fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 11 than any week so far in 2020. He only had 5.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (232 passing yards, 2 INTs) in the Falcons’ 24-9 loss to the Saints. He must not like having a week off before facing the Saints as last year, he was held to under 200 passing yards and just 19.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points coming off the bye against the Saints. If his fantasy owners have any input with the NFL scheduling department, he won’t face the Saints after the bye in 2021 and if he does, they should be ready to put him on the Bench just like he should have been this week.

RB: Ronald Jones (TB) – 2.4 points

What a difference a week makes. One week ago, Ronald Jones had a career high 192 rushing yards and 25.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Carolina Panthers. This week, he had 2.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (24 rushing yards) against the Los Angeles Rams and was outscored by fellow Tampa RB Leonard Fournette. Besides his Week 10 outburst, it’s been a rough couple of weeks for Jones who has scored under 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in three out the past four weeks. Despite those poor performances, he’s still the #11 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner so Dynasty Owners were likely putting him in their Starting lineups when he should have been on the Bench.

WR: Travis Fulgham (PHI) – 1.8 points

This is not a repeat of last week’s recap, which also featured Travis Fulgham scoring only 1.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 8 yards). Just like last week, he didn’t completely disappear from the Eagles offense as he was targeted seven times this week (after seeing five targets in Week 10). That’s two consecutive weeks with only one reception on multiple targets and 1.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This is after averaging 19.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over his first five games (Weeks 4-8). As much as he saved some of his Dynasty Owners with his performances in that period, he’s dragging down those who stuck with him or traded for his services recently and have kept plugging him into their Starting lineup. For the second week in a row, instead of being a Starter, Fulgham should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad.

TE: Hayden Hurst (ATL) – 0.0 points

Another week, another top rated TE with a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Last week, it was Jimmy Graham, while this week, it was Hayden Hurst who came into Week 11 averaging 10.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He’s still ranked as the #10 TE in Dynasty Owner so he’s usually good enough to be in your Starting lineup. However, this week, Dynasty Owners should have left him on the Bench or better yet, the Practice Squad.

K: Matt Prater (DET) – -2.0 points

Last week, Prater moved into the top 12 kickers in Dynasty Owner with an 18.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance. As a result, many Dynasty Owners may have employed Prater as their kicker this week. That wasn’t a good idea as the Detroit offense was pretty anemic and gave Prater only one kicking attempt, a 51-yard FG that he missed. The single missed 50+ yard FG accounted for Prater’s -2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance. One week after his best game of the season, he had his worst and should have been on your Bench in Week 11.

Dishonorable mention to Randy Bullock of the Bengals. After the first six weeks of the season, Bullock was averaging 9.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, he has averaged just 4.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his last four games, including -1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week against the Football Team. Bullock hit a 53 yard FG, but missed three other kicks (34 and 58 yard FGs and his only PAT attempt). He was tied with Prater as the #11 kicker in Dynasty Owner before Week 11 based on his early season performance. Hopefully you didn’t rely on that and had him on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week Recap –

just wanna win vs. Docrob

Since scoring wasn’t down in Dynasty Owner, both just wanna win and Docrob each exceeded their score projections for the week by over 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The result was a very high-scoring game (187.9 to 168.6) and a victory for just wanna win. The Chargers stack of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen scored a combined 71.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for just wanna win to overcome the presence of Deshaun Watson and Travis Kelce, who scored 29.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, in Docrob’s Starting lineup. The victory improves just wanna win’s record to 9-2 while Docrob dropped to 3-8. Did the high scoring performance help to propel just wanna win up the Chase for the Ring leaderboard? Let’s find out.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

It did! The victory and high scoring moved just wanna win from fifth place to third place.

In other news, it’s back to the top spot in the Chase for the Ring for Barbee Kilgore just one week after losing it to Quaranteed for Greatness. Those two teams flipped spots again with Barbee Kilgore in first place now and Quaranteed for Greatness back in second place. Both look entrenched at the top as the only two teams with more than 1,800 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

While the order changed at the top and in the rest of the Top Ten in the Chase, the teams did not. None of the teams in the Top 10 moved out after Week 11. There was some internal movement besides at the top with My Corona dropping four spots and The Human Fund going down two places. The Tough Guys moved into sixth place, up from tenth place.

Conclusions

Another low scoring week in the NFL didn’t automatically equate to low scoring in Dynasty Owner as the top players came out to play in Week 11. There may not have been any breakout 40.0+ point performances, but there were more 25.0+ point performances in Week 11 than Week 10. That kept scoring high in Dynasty Owner.

With no bye weeks on the horizon for Week 12, Dynasty Owners will have a full compliment of players at their disposal for the first time since Week 3. In theory, that should lead to even higher scoring with just two weeks to go in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Higher scoring could help teams just outside of the Top 10 and Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring to make their move in the Standings.

This week is Thanksgiving and hopefully a full day of food and football for everyone. Please read the preview article to see how my Week 11 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in Week 12. Despite the holiday, the preview article will still be published on Friday. Besides today’s weekly recap and Friday’s preview article, the usual Free Agent Auction Target article by Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) was published earlier today. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) has the week off, but will be back next week. Be sure to follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter to read what we’re tweeting as well.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer goes live this week at 1 PM on Wednesday. If you can’t make it, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is up to 560 subscribers on YouTube. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 12 Free Agent Auction Targets

By: Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsNFL)

I am sure Steve, The Jerk, Tim, and myself sound like broken records to everyone at this point when talking about how important bench scoring is in Dynasty Owner, but my game this week was decided solely by bench scoring. In my game I was up by 5 points heading into Monday night, with him having Fournette, as well as Woods yet to play, but both were on his bench for the contest. Sometime around the halfway point in the 4th quarter I checked the score to find team Anchorman Dynasty now ahead of me by 2 points.

Woods and Fournette put up a combined 35 points (at that point in the game) giving him an additional 7 points towards his weekly score, as well as the victory. I bring this example up because I want to continue to stress the importance of bench scoring in this format and give an actual contest where bench scoring was the true difference.

Another quick reminder for owners of the format, waivers, and trading will lock at the end of week 13, remaining closed throughout the playoffs so make your final moves before it is too late. We have seen the yearlong trend of major injuries to star players continue this week, with rookie Joe Burrow out for the season with a torn ACL. We have also continued to see an uptick in players missing time due to COVID with notable players Mark Ingram, and JK Dobbins now added to the COVID IR list.

Thankfully we have made it 11 weeks through the NFL season, and seem on pace to actually crown a champion, despite the pandemic. I just want to say Bravo to the NFL for the job they have done and continue to do.

The free-agent Auction processes bids on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday at 5 am EST. There is no limit to how much dynasty owner currency you can acquire throughout the year as it comes down to how much you feel comfortable spending.

Ryan Finley (3-Years $827,414/yr.) – 1.03% Owned

With probably the saddest injury of the year happening on Sunday it opens up a spot at quarterback for fantasy owners, especially in deeper formats like Dynasty Owner. As I mentioned in my mid-season award’s article, the stat of Burrow being sacked on 52% of his drop backs, which has finally caught up to him. Burrow has been beaten and battered all season long, and yet has been able to consistently perform. If I am a Bengals fan, I am not happy about the injury by any means, but it’s also a sigh of relief that the offensive line now has time to improve before ruining Burrow’s promising career. Ryan Finley is the lucky candidate that gets to step into the starting lineup, and with that happening two things are a certain, Finley will get blitzed a ton, and he will be running for his life behind one of the worst offensive lines we have seen in recent memory. As you can see, I am not all that high on Finley, especially after his 2019 showing, and the 3 of 10 passing day he had against The Football Team Sunday after Burrow went down.

The reasoning behind Finley being in the top spot this week is because he is starting at quarterback and will be throwing the ball a lot. Many owners have been scrambling at the quarterback position this season with signal callers like Dak, Kyle Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Burrow, Drew Brees, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, and Teddy Bridgewater all missing at least one game this season. Finley has been a below average quarterback every time he has stepped on the field, but this is also the most talent he has had around him thus far in his career. The Bengals have shown an extreme willingness to throw the ball this season, which will give Finley a little bit of upside the rest of the way. With all of that being said I wouldn’t recommend Finley as anything more than a bench play moving forward, even in good match ups.

Demarcus Robinson (1-Year $2,297,500) – 48.45% Owned

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson slots in at number 2 this week on the Free Agent Auction Big Board. Robinson has continued to see consistent targets in this high-powered Chiefs offense. In week 11 Robinson had a very solid game with 6 catches for 44 yards on 8 targets, which would make for solid production in any Owner’s bench slot. In the past 3 weeks Robinson has put together a very good stretch of games with 13 catches for 141 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Fellow teammate Sammy Watkins is constantly on the injury report making Robinson a safe, cheap buy, who also has potential in years to come. Hardman was back and active for this past contest, and even his return didn’t seem to slow Robinson down much.

The Chiefs have yet to throw a whole lot to the running back position, and don’t seem all that interested in doing so, which opens up plenty of targets after Kelce, and Hill get theirs, of course. If or when Watkins comes back it will put a damper on Robinson’s production, but until then grab the available piece in the NFL’s best offense, especially if you need it. A player who sees targets in offenses like Kansas City almost always has great fantasy value at some point regardless of where in the pecking order they seem to be.

Keke Coutee (2-Years $797,257/yr.) – 35.05% Owned

About half of the Texans active wide receiver’s left Sunday’s game against the Patriots pretty banged up. Randall Cobb is more than likely going to miss extended time with a serious toe injury, and Kenny Stills left Sunday’s game with an apparent leg injury. Cobb is rumored to be going on IR because of his injury, and I haven’t seen anything on the extent of the Stills injury, but if he’s set to miss even a week it makes Coutee a very interesting play in the surging Texans offense.

Watson has been nothing short of brilliant over the past month, except for the tornado he had to face in Cleveland…. The Brownies need a dome! Coutee has been one of the biggest fantasy darlings of recent memory with almost everyone being a “Coutee Truther” at some point in time over the past two years. There is no denying the talent is there for Coutee, but injuries have hampered his short career up to this point.

All of that finally changed on Sunday when Deshaun Watson found a healthy Coutee in the end zone against a Bill Belichick defense. Coutee only had 2 catches for 10 yards and a touchdown in the game, but it was a great step in the right direction for a young talented player. It was also great timing for Coutee with his positional teammates being so beat up in that game. Once again Coutee is fantasy relevant!

Dez Bryant (1-Year $1,250,000) – 35.05% Owned

I can’t even explain how awesome it is to be able to put Dez Bryant into an article of any kind in 2020. I can’t imagine there are many of us out there who thought Dez could come back and be a quality football player after not playing as long as he has been out for, and on top of all that he’s doing it at age 32. Up to this point the Bryant signing has seemed like a publicity stunt, but Sunday Bryant was on the field, and honestly didn’t look all that bad. The Ravens seemed determined to get Dez the ball throughout the game hitting him on short screens on 3 different occasions. Bryant showed great hands in his return, and also displayed that he still has some athleticism left in the tank.

The very first pass Dez had thrown his way was a bit off of the mark, and Dez did what he always does, adjusted in the air, and was able to get his hands on the ball. He was somewhat quiet statistically speaking, but the fact he was almost force feed throughout the game has to be a great sign in the coming weeks. While Dez is 32 and being out of the league multiple years he is a pretty risky pickup, but one pickup I think every single contender should make, as long as they have a roster spot. I see Dez being the highest upside player we will see on this list for the rest of this season, but he also has an extremely low floor.

KhaDarel Hodge (1-Year $750,000) 2.06% Owned

The merry go round of Browns receivers continue with Beckham being out for the season. No matter which receiver ends up emerging in this offense they will be somewhat limited in terms of fantasy production, until Baker plays better. As we all know most good fantasy production from the wide receiver position comes from receivers who have above average quarterbacks, and unfortunately for Hodge the Browns do not have an above average quarterback. Hodge does have some competition for targets with Higgins, Hooper, and Landry all competing. Landry, who was supposed to step into the alpha role after the injury to OBJ has failed to do so, and just hasn’t looked like himself all season long.

If Landry’s struggles continue Cleveland will have no choice but to count on players like Higgins, or Hodge to produce week in, and week out. Hodge is a raw talent, but has the measurables to play on the outside, as well as succeed at this level standing at 6 feet 2 inches tall, weighing 205 lbs., and running a sub 4.4 40 time. Hodge is nothing but a gamble and/or stash right now, but he has the potential to be a big play guy as we witnessed Sunday when he posted 3 catches for 73 yards, including a long of 42 yards. Hodge is more than worth a stash on either rebuilding or contending teams.

Conclusion

One of the reasons I love fantasy football so much is the randomness of the entire game. I have seen teams in redraft leagues make the playoffs all because of their waiver acquisitions, and not because of anyone they drafted. I started out the Dynasty Owner season horribly because of injuries, and bad quarterback play so I decided to look towards next season, and boy has that been interesting. I pretty much traded anyone over the age of 25 with value, for high upside rookies, and draft capital, yet this is the 1st week I have lost since making those trades and trying to lose. I am literally a team trying to tank, and I’m not even doing that correctly going 3-1 since making my big trades.

What I’m getting at with all this is don’t be scared to take chances on players like Dez Bryant, or Ryan Finley because this is the NFL we are talking about, and crazy things happen every single Sunday, which is what makes football so much fun! I hope everyone was victorious this week and enjoys the article. As always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 11 Preview – Something to Play For

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Not everyone is having a great 2020 NFL season. For every undefeated 9-0 Pittsburgh Steelers team, there are teams highly unlikely to make the playoffs, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1-8 or the New York Jets at 0-9. All three of those teams still have seven games to play, but the Steelers games are far more meaningful than the Jaguars or Jets games. The players on the Jaguars and Jets are still professionals and try their hardest to win, even while a lot of their fans are hoping that they continue to lose and get the #1 overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL draft.

While there are no 10-0 Dynasty Owner teams, there is at least one 0-10 team and possibly more out there. Many other Dynasty Owner teams are sitting at 1-9, 2-8 or 3-7 due to injuries, poor play or just bad luck in drawing quality opponent’s week after week, with little to no chance of making their League playoffs. The desire to lose for those fantasy football team owners can be great with the prospect of securing the top pick in your League’s 2021 rookie draft.

To prevent that, Dynasty Owner has created an innovative incentive to give Dynasty Owners something to play for and to try winning games at the end of the season. The winner of the Losers’ Bracket tournament in each League receives a Bonus Draft pick at the end of the 1st round of the Rookie Draft – Pick #13 and one Amnesty Provision. The Tournament Runner Up also receives one Amnesty Provision. Hopefully, that keeps all Dynasty Owners engaged throughout the entire season.

For some Dynasty Owners, they are stuck in the middle – their record is ok, but they don’t think their team is good enough to win their League and would prefer to lose, not make the playoffs and get a better draft pick. In my beta league, one owner (Matthew Montgomery) was in that position this week. His team was 5-4 but Matthew Stafford is his only healthy, starting QB. His thinking was that he’s doesn’t have a team that can win the League and openly admitted to hoping his team would lose. He still set his best possible lineup though and actually won this week to put him at 6-4 and in fourth place. Not what he wanted to happen but admirable since he could have tried harder to lose. Maybe he’ll lose the next three weeks, miss the playoffs, but have something to play for in the last three weeks in the Loser’s Bracket.

Our weekly Match-up of the Week will look at a team in the Chase for the Ring who is facing a team that has little chance for the playoffs but is still competing this season based on their lineup. They probably know they have something to play for this year. As usual for the Friday preview article, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3-point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 20th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 10 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Baker Mayfield – 6.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Rex Burkhead – 22.6 (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Darnell Mooney – 2.3 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Mike Gesicki – 6.0 (Just Ok recommendation)

At least Week 10 was better than Week 9 with one Good (Rex Burkhead) and one Just Ok (Mike Gesicki). Burkhead was just outside the Top 5 RBs for the week with his 22.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance. Mike Gesicki didn’t have a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6.0), but neither did many TEs, so recommending him was Just Ok. At the other end were the recommendations to Start Baker Mayfield and Darnell Mooney. Mayfield was the second worst Week 10 QB ahead of only Nick Foles, while Mooney was outscored by five players on his own team. However, even though our recommendations haven’t gone as we had hoped so far, we can’t stop making them and give up. With that, here are my Week 11 recommendations:

Alex Smith (QB – WAS): For just making it back to the NFL after his horrific injury two years ago, Washington QB Alex Smith should be the comeback player of the year. As nice of a story as his comeback is, he’s probably not the QB you want to see starting for your NFL or Dynasty Owner team this year. However, he has thrown the ball for a lot of yards in the past two weeks (325 yards in Week 9 versus the Giants and 390 yards in Week 10 versus the Lions). Not a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points either week (14.3 in Week 9 and 20.9 in Week 10) due to 3 INTs one week and zero TDs another. The Dynasty Owner fantasy points may come this week as he gets to face a Bengals defense that has allowed an average of 35.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to opposing QBs the past four weeks. Three of those four QBs (Phillip Rivers, Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger) were similar to Smith in that they are largely pocket passers who don’t run for many yards. In the games against those three QBs, the Bengals have allowed 40.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Smith probably won’t get that many points, but he’ll do well enough to crack the top 12 QBs for the week and be someone who should have been a Starter.

Gus Edwards (RB – BAL): Instead of a two-way split at RB, the Ravens now have a three-way split, but Edwards was less impacted by the return of Mark Ingram to the Ravens lineup than J.K. Dobbins. Edwards had 7 rushing attempts for 42 yards plus 1 reception for 31 yards (8.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). In contrast, Ingram and Dobbins combined for just 7.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week. Edwards is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the season, while the Ravens’ opponent this week (Tennessee) is giving up an average of 4.4 yards per carry. The Titans defense has also given up 8 rushing TDs to opposing RBs this year and Edwards is the guy getting those for the Ravens now as Ingram hasn’t had a rushing TD since Week 4 and Dobbins hasn’t gotten one since he scored twice in Week 1. Edwards was drafted late (ADP 251.2) and is ranked as the #50 RB in Dynasty Owner, but he’ll perform well enough this week to be in your Starting lineup.

Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC): Guyton looks like he’s become the Chargers third WR at this point in the season after going undrafted in Dynasty Owner. He had a season-high six targets in their last game versus Miami, one less than Keenan Allen and one more than Mike Williams. He also has the ability to rip off big plays with two 70+ yard receptions this season. Guyton is getting more targets plus has the ability to break off a big play and now he gets to play the Jets in Week 11. Sounds like a recipe for a big week for the #82 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner. Guyton is only owned in 51% of Dynasty Owner leagues for a low salary of $540,000 so he might be someone you can pick up and put in your lineup this week if you’re in need of a Starting WR.  

Jared Cook (TE – NO): It’s probably been said before here, but bares repeating. The Falcons don’t defend very well against TEs. Only Buffalo has given up more receptions and more yards to TEs and they are on bye this week, so the Falcons have the opportunity to move “ahead” depending on the performance of Jared Cook. While Cook got the dreaded Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) last week, it was a miserable week for Drew Brees and a rusty Jameis Winston. Expect better from Winston this week and Cook should be one of his top targets, especially if Alvin Kamara doesn’t play. Cook also has a good track record versus the Falcons with 13.4 and 11.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against them last year. Admittedly that was with Drew Brees playing, but Winston is much better than your average backup QB. Unless your TE is Travis Kelce, you need to look for a good matchup and this is one so put Cook in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 10 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Tom Brady – 42.3 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Mike Davis – 8.4 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Tyler Lockett – 11.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • TE: Mark Andrews – 13.1 (Bad recommendation)

Not a great week for these recommendations. Trying to go back-to-back with Good Bench recommendations of Tom Brady and Mark Andrews failed spectacularly as both were the top players at their respective position in Week 10. The recommendations to Bench Mike Davis and Tyler Lockett were Just Ok as both finished just a couple of points outside of the Top 24 at their position for the week and were a fringe starter at best. This was the first week without a Good Bench recommendation. Since we can’t give up and have to keep giving recommendations, let’s try and see how they go for Week 11.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): The Indianapolis Colts defense has been pretty good at holding down opposition QBs from scoring too many Dynasty Owner fantasy points. On average, they are giving up 16.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with a high of 30.8 points to Matthew Stafford in Week 8 and a low of -3.4 points to Kirk Cousins back in Week 2. However, Aaron Rodgers is by far the best QB that they have faced so far this season, so they may have just done well against poor QBs. It’s possible, but Rodgers also may be due for a poor game especially if the Packers are forced to play without Davante Adams (or at least not have him at full strength). Bench Rodgers against the top ranked defense in the NFL.

Todd Gurley (RB – ATL): Gurley is currently the #10 RB in Dynasty Owner this season and totally justifying his ADP of 45.0 so far. However, if you look further into his stats, you’ll see that he has only been averaging 3.7 yards per carry – the lowest yards per carry of any RB in the top 10. He’s scored 9 TDs so far in 9 games, which is second best among RBs, but a TD per game average isn’t likely to hold for the entire season. He’s also only caught 15 passes for a mere 79 yards on the season, which accounts for just one-sixth of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points (22.9 out of 139.3 points). This week, Gurley faces a New Orleans defense that is allowing just 67.9 yards per game on the ground to RBs and only 3.4 yards per carry. Gurley will need to get 20 carries plus a TD to score enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to earn his spot in your Starting lineup. That’s a lot to ask for which is why he should be on your Bench this week.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): For the 2020 season, Tyler Boyd is the #13 WR in Dynasty Owner and averaging 16.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, his average drops to 13.7 points per game if you remove the two games against the Cleveland Browns. He’s definitely not playing the Browns this week as the Bengals travel to the Washington, DC region to face the Football Team. The Football Team has allowed the fewest receptions and second fewest yards to WRs this season. In addition, Joe Burrow is getting sacked 3.6 times per game and the Football Team is fifth in the NFL in sacks. Burrow might not have enough time in the pocket to find his WRs, so Boyd’s production could suffer this week. That’s why he’s better left on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Robert Tonyan (TE – GB): Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been looking Tonyan’s way ever since Davante Adams’ return to the Packers lineup. Tonyan is only averaging 3.6 targets and 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since Adams has been back. Even though Adams hasn’t practiced yet this week, the Packers could be getting Allen Lazard back in their lineup against the Indianapolis Colts. Rodgers is likely to look for either Adams or Lazard instead of Tonyan since the Colts are one of the best teams at defending TEs this season. They only allow an average of 3.9 receptions and 34.3 yards per game to TEs. Even though Tonyan is still ranked as the #9 TE in Dynasty Owner, his standing is skewed by his performances in Weeks 2-4 when he scored 60.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is nearly two-thirds of the 91.7 points he has scored all season. He hasn’t really been a Starting TE in four of the past five weeks. This week will make it five out of six as he should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week –

Docrob vs. just wanna win

The eleventh Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season features two teams with much different levels of success this season. Sitting in fifth place in the Chase for the Ring with an 8-2 record is the aptly named just wanna win. Their opponent Docrob is struggling with a 3-7 record so far. However, that isn’t stopping Docrob from trying their best to get a win this week as they are setting a pretty good lineup for a sub-.500 team.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, just wanna win will do just that in a high scoring game by a 154.0-135.0 margin. Despite their record, Docrob must think he has something to play for as he has a full complement of players in his Starting lineup and Bench.

The advantage from Starting lineups goes to just wanna win. Their WRs are projected to score 13.6 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Docrob’s WRs which is most of the 16.3 point advantage they have overall from the Starting lineups. Still, Docrob has a pretty good 3-7 team with Deshaun Watson, Josh Jacobs, Tyler Boyd and Travis Kelce all in their Starting lineup. It’s just that just wanna win has a better team.

Both teams have a full complement of Bench players and from the Bench, just wanna win has an advantage at RB with the tandem of Duke Johnson and Ronald Jones expected to outscore the two Broncos RBs (Philip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon) sitting on Docrob’s Bench. Kudos to both teams for managing their rosters well and setting their lineups already.

Conclusion

Everyone reading this article has something to play for this week and the rest of the Dynasty Owner season. For a few, it’s the possibility of being the second Ring winner.  For many, it’s a spot in the Playoffs and maybe a League title. And for many more, it’s maybe an extra draft pick next year to help turn your team around for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. How everyone does that is up to them but doing it the right way and trying to win is the best way to go.

If your team is trying to win, maybe it’ll be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Even with Thanksgiving week almost upon us, there will be a recap article on Tuesday and a preview article on Friday. We will also have the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) has next week off but still follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be the traditional weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) and the weekly podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific) on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 557 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part II

Author: Matt “TheJerk” Morrisson (@DynastyJerk)

Hey y’all.  Today I’m going to be discussing the second part of my “Opportunity” article series.  If you didn’t catch Part I on Wednesday (11/11), I suggest you go back and read it before reading this as it’ll make more sense.  I’ll go over a few of the main concepts before we jump into it.

I have been working with a couple of underused stats for the past few years.  I’m sure these stats can be found elsewhere, but I haven’t come across them yet.  They try to bridge the gap between player opportunity and production.   Players are often unfairly compared to each other for a variety of reasons including injury, bye weeks, and just overall lack of playing time.  What I’m attempting to do is find a player’s raw efficiency.  I’m trying to see how we can use this to predict future usage and maybe even predict when a breakout is about to happen.  In Part I, I discussed quarterback and running back efficiency.  We found that most of the top performing quarterbacks are the most efficient ones.  Yes, I know that statement should go without saying, but we also found a couple of outliers in Dak Prescott and Josh Allen.  There is no doubt both of them are elite, but they are just middle of the road as far as efficiency goes.  The difference maker for them is that they each have/had league leading volume.  We also talked about running back efficiency and how D’Andre Swift is pound for pound the most efficient running back this season.  If/when Swift receives 70 plus percent of Detroit’s carries, he will become a top ten running back.  Well, now it’s time to break down the wide receivers and tight ends.  As was the case with last week’s article, I will not be using the most recent week’s stats for this article.  All numbers I’m dealing with today are through Week 9 only.  Also, these ranks are limited to my Top 100 overall players.  Today I will be talking about player’s…

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap
  • Fantasy Points per Opportunity
  • Salary Compared to Opportunity

Wide Receivers

Wide receivers have the same definition for opportunities as running backs.  A wide receiver gets an opportunity when they are targeted or have a carry.  I’ll be comparing my Top 43 ranked wide receivers.

(WR Opportunities = Targets + Rush Attempts)

As I mentioned in the opening, a player’s opportunity is a good indicator of how much their team relies on them throughout the season.  The receiver that has the most opportunities through nine weeks is Stefon Diggs.  This may be a little surprising from a pre-season perspective as Diggs’ role in Buffalo’s offense had yet to be seen.  Diggs leads the league in targets (91) and receptions (63).  There is no doubt he is Josh Allen’s number one target and there is no reason to think he won’t continue to be.  It’s also worth noting that all of the receivers in the Top 5 of opportunities make over $11 million per year.  Here is the complete Top 5…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunities
Stefon Diggs, BUF$14,400,00091
Allen Robinson, CHI$14,000,00087
Amari Cooper, DAL$20,000,00086
Keenan Allen, LAC$11,250,00086
Tyreek Hill, KC$18,000,00080
Swipe for more on mobile.

I don’t see any surprises here.  As I said, all players are on “expensive” contracts.  There is no doubt in my mind that Davante Adams would be in the Top 5 had he not missed two games due to injury.  Now let’s look and see which receivers are getting the most opportunities when they are on the field.

Player, TeamSalaryOpp/Snap
Davante Adams, GB$14,500,0000.20
Diontae Johnson, PIT$1,070,2410.18
Stefon Diggs, BUF$14,400,0000.17
Keenan Allen, LAC$11,250,0000.17
Calvin Ridley, ATL$2,725,1780.17
Swipe for more on mobile.

Well look at that.  Davante Adams leads the list of receivers who are involved when they are actually on the field.  In the games that he has played, Adams has a 59 percent target share among wide receivers on his team, and a 34 percent target share between all pass catchers on his team.  Adams is seeing historic volume to the tune of 11.7 targets per game.  On a 16 game pace that equals 187.2 targets.  Therefore, it isn’t surprising that he is getting an opportunity on a fifth of his snaps.  Allen Lazard returning in the next few weeks would surely lighten Adams’ workload, but his production should remain largely unchanged.

Diontae Johnson has the least number of total opportunities of these five players and that is due to injury.  I hate to see players get injured, but I also hate when they receive unfair dynasty outlooks because of it.  Another term I hate to use is “injury prone”.  I feel like that is an unfair title to give any player especially in such a physical sport.  I would not consider Johnson injury prone.  I would say he’s been unlucky and has had some unfortunately strange injuries this year.  Johnson has shown that he is Big Ben’s most trusted receiver as he is averaging more targets and receptions per game than JuJu or Claypool.  In fact, Johnson is the only one of these five players who is not currently in the Top 10 wide receivers for Dynasty Owner.

As we did with running backs last week, let’s now see how efficient some of these pass catchers are…

Player, TeamSalaryPoints/Opp
Justin Jefferson, MIN$3,280,7012.66
DK Metcalf, SEA$1,146,5132.54
Will Fuller, HOU$2,541,0782.47
Davante Adams, GB$14,500,0002.45
A.J. Brown, TEN$1,413,0922.42
Swipe for more on mobile.

There is an interesting similarity between these five receivers.  Yes, they are all the most efficient, but they also seem to be a perfect balance of possession and deep threat receiver.  All five of these receivers are above average route runners, and they are all “deep threats.”  (Adams is a top three route runner) In addition to being deep threats, they all are reliable possession receivers.  This combination of skills is what allows players to be the most efficient.  These players receive deep shots and in turn, a lot of air yards, but they also have a high volume of targets.  Atop the list of most efficient wide receivers this year is Justin Jefferson.  Through nine weeks, Jefferson only has 44 opportunities.  That number is much less than receivers like Amari Cooper (86), Tyreek Hill (80), and DK Metcalf (68).  He has the same number of opportunities as Travis Fulgham yet has posted 20 more fantasy points.  If Jefferson’s efficiency remained unchanged and he had as many opportunities as Metcalf, he would be the number one wide receiver in football.  This is a very similar trend to what I mentioned in Part I of this article.  D’Andre Swift is the most efficient running back this season and would be leading all running backs in points if he had the same volume as Alvin Kamara.  Jefferson may not be leading all rookie wide receivers in points, but I could make a strong argument that he is the best rookie receiver this year.  Like Swift, I will be bumping Jefferson up in my rankings.

It may be surprising that a rookie could be the most efficient receiver through nine weeks, but it’s worth noting that three of the five are rookies or second year players.  Adams is the only wide receiver in the Top 5 in efficiency that has a salary over 3.3 million dollars.  This is a very similar trend to running back efficiency where all of the Top 5 most efficient running backs are making less than 2.2 million dollars this year.  The only explanation I can think of for this is the fact that, on average, younger running backs and receivers are the ones that make less money.  While youth isn’t necessarily the only factor, it can allow players to be more efficient as they, on average, have less wear and tear on their bodies.  Just a thought.  Finally, here are the least efficient wide receivers in my Top 43.

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesOpp/SnapPoints/Opp
Michael Thomas, NO$19,250,000110.121.36
Diontae Johnson, PIT$1,070,241560.181.43
Jerry Jeudy, DEN$3,798,243610.151.44
Michael Gallup, DAL$880,995550.091.49
Deebo Samuel, SF$1,811,869280.151.50
Swipe for more on mobile.

These five players are putting up disappointing fantasy points per opportunity.  Michael Thomas’ stats include only two games.  That is an incredibly small sample size, but I actually believe his efficiency gets worse if you include Week 10.  In Week 10, MT put up two receptions for 27 yards.  Time will tell if his injuries inhibit his production for the rest of the season, but all things considered, he is off to a very inefficient season.

The most surprising player on this list is Diontae Johnson.  We’re well aware that Johnson’s total opportunities and points are down this year due to injuries, but I would not have guessed that he is this inefficient.  The main reason is a little odd.  Through nine weeks, he has 65 targets for 37 receptions or a 56.9 catch percentage.  While he is receiving over eight targets a game, he is bringing in only 4.6 receptions a game.  It seems (even though he’s been productive) that he is having some early season connection issues with Big Ben.  I look for those issues to be worked out prior to the fantasy playoffs, and if they are, Johnson could be a league winner if he becomes even a little more efficient.

Tight Ends

The players I will be comparing here are limited to my Top 5 ranked tight ends.  Tight end opportunities are defined in the same way as running back or wide receiver opportunities.

(TE Opportunities = Targets + Rush Attempts)

This section is going to mostly be me talking about Travis Kelce.  How could I not?  Through Week 9, Kelce leads all tight ends in opportunities, targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and (most importantly) DO fantasy points.  The closest tight end to Kelce is Darren Waller who has 58 less fantasy points.  Unreal.  Kelce is leading all but three wide receivers in points this year.  (Hill, Metcalf and Adams) The advantage that the Kelce Owner has over all other Owners is nearly priceless. I would say there are less than three players in Dynasty Owner that I would consider truly untouchable, but Kelce is one of them.  Let’s dive deeper and look at these stats closer.

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunities
Travis Kelce, KC$9,368,40080
Darren Waller, LV$7,450,00071
George Kittle, SF$674,57251
Mark Andrews, BAL$863,29044
Jonnu Smith, TEN$776,57237
Swipe for more on mobile.

I want to first start off by saying that I feel bad leaving T.J. Hockenson off this list, but he just barely missed my Top 100 players.  He comes in as my 104th player overall.  I just wanted to mention that he deserves a spot at the table here, and I’ll most likely be bumping him up in my rankings.

I already spoiled it, but I think everyone already knew that Kelce leads tight ends in opportunities.  He is averaging nearly 9 per game.

Mark Andrews and Jonnu Smith have been rather disappointing this year as far as opportunity goes.  We knew coming into the season that neither of these players are on high volume passing teams, but their utilization has been baffling none the less.

Kittle remains third in this Top 5 tight end opportunities even though he played only six games.  Kittle was the only tight end that was close to Kelce’s tier.   There is no change in how these players rank when we look at opportunities per snap.

Player, TeamSalaryOpp/Snap
Travis Kelce, KC$9,368,4000.16
Darren Waller, LV$7,450,0000.15
George Kittle, SF$674,5720.14
Mark Andrews, BAL$863,2900.13
Jonnu Smith, TEN$776,5720.09
Swipe for more on mobile.

All five of these tight ends are closely bunched for this stat.  Kelce wins again, but by a small margin.  Kelce is receiving an opportunity on 16 percent of the snaps that he takes.

Jonnu has remained a Top 10 tight end this year in total points.  That may not be saying much as the tight end position is incredibly scarce, but even so, he has been putting up decent performances.  The issue I have with Jonnu is the lack of opportunities he is receiving.  Jonnu is getting an opportunity on only nine percent of his snaps.  This number isn’t terrible for a tight end, but obviously it’s nowhere near elite.  Jonnu will continue to be started as a low volume, touch down dependent tight end.

Player, TeamSalaryPoints/Opp
Jonnu Smith, TEN$776,5722.43
Travis Kelce, KC$9,368,4002.10
George Kittle, SF$674,5721.92
Mark Andrews, BAL$863,2901.91
Darren Waller, LV$7,450,0001.55
Swipe for more on mobile.

Finally, we come to tight end efficiency, and what a surprise we have here.  Jonnu has jumped to the top of the list.  There are a few reasons why.  First, Jonnu’s overall lack of opportunities drives his efficiency up compared to a high-volume player like Kelce.  Through Week 9, Kelce has more than twice as many opportunities as Jonnu, but Kelce does not have more than twice as many fantasy points.  Therefore, Jonnu is the more efficient tight end.  In addition, if Jonnu remained as efficient and had as many opportunities as Kelce, he would have 26 more fantasy points on the year.  Don’t misinterpret what I’m saying.  Kelce is the better tight end, and it’s not close.  The reason Jonnu has been more efficient this year is partly due to a small sample size and partly due to his high touchdown rate.  Through Week 9, Jonnu has six touchdowns on 24 touches.  That means he is scoring a touchdown on 25 percent of his receptions.  I would say this efficiency can’t continue, but in Week 10, Jonnu scored a touchdown on three touches.  Remarkable.

As always, I thank you for reading my article and for reading all of the Dynasty Owner content.  I’ll be back with another article in a couple of weeks.  Take care, be safe and Happy Holidays.

TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 10 Recap: Low Scoring Week

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Overall, scoring is up in the NFL as teams were averaging more points per game (25.3) than any other season through the first nine weeks of this season (https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/11/11/plenty-of-reasons-for-scorings-record-setting-pace-in-nfl/114854558/). In Week 10, the average points scored per team was nearly two and a half points lower at 22.9. On a team by team basis, a majority of teams (17 out of 28) scored less points in Week 10 than their average for the season. Some teams scored more, particularly Tampa Bay, but chances are, your team scored less this week than usual.

All of that translates into fewer fantasy points for most Dynasty Owner teams. While not a complete analysis of all leagues, a quick look shows that scoring appears to be down in Dynasty Owner as well. In my two leagues, only five teams (out of 24) scored more points in Week 10 than their average, while out of the current Top 25 teams in the Chase for the Ring, only four had more points this week than their average. For the past couple of weeks, seeing at least one Chase for the Ring team score 200 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points was common, but this week, the highest score that I saw in my quick look was 184.2 by Hi Boltage. Congrats to them! Sure, some of you had high-scoring players like the G.O.A.T. and Alvin Kamara and were able to score more points than usual, but for most of us, Dynasty Owner fantasy points were down this week.

The low scoring was across the board at all positions (QB, RB, WR, TE), every position, that is, except kicker. Much to the dismay of the Dynasty Owners out there who hate kickers, they were the only position immune to the low-scoring nature of Week 10. There were only six kicks (3 FGs and 3 PATs) missed this week, which probably helped to keep kicker scoring as usual. If you hate having kickers in fantasy football in general and Dynasty Owner in particular, add this to your list of reasons why.

Will this reduced scoring lead to a reduced number of words in our tenth regular season Dynasty Owner weekly recap article for 2020? Probably not, but just like every week, this article will name a Dynasty Owner Player of the Week and a Value Player of the Week, highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out if the Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week was low scoring and take our weekly look at the Chase for the Ring standings.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 17th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our tenth Dynasty Owner Player of the Week for the season is: Tom Brady

This may be one of the only honor that eluded the G.O.A.T. and now in the tenth game of the second season of Dynasty Owner, he has finally won the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week award. Just a week after a career low 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, the G.O.A.T. had the most points this week with 42.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (341 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 2 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD). It was the highest point total of Week 10, but only the third best performance of the season for the G.O.A.T. and the fewest number of points to lead Dynasty Owner in scoring all season.

  • Week 10 Points: 42.3
  • 2020 Salary: $25,000,000
  • Cost per Point: $591,017

Congratulations Tom! Winning the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor likely isn’t as awesome as any of your six Super Bowl victories, but it’s still pretty sweet.

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The tenth Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week for 2020 is: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

A week after a two TD performance, Valdes-Scantling did even better this week to just barely take this honor over a pair of multiple TD scoring RBs in Alvin Kamara and Nyheim Hines. Both Kamara and Hines had won the Value Player of the Week honor already this season and scored more points this week than Valdes-Scantling, but neither was a better value. That’s because the third-year, fifth-round draft pick only has a salary of $669,388 for the season and scored a career-high 24.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 149 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) this week. He even outscored his teammate Davante Adams, the #3 WR in all of Dynasty Owner. However, he scored fewer points than any Value Player of the Week winner so far this season. 

  • Week 10 Points: 24.9
  • 2020 Salary: $669,388
  • Cost per Point: $26,883

Congratulations Marquez on your first Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor!

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been in one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 10. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Kyler Murray or Alvin Kamara because barring injury or bye week, those guys should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might be Free Agents or on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 10 when they should have been.

QB: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – 41.7 points

Roethlisberger has been performing as a Top QB pretty much all season, averaging 26.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. This week was his best performance of the season with 41.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (333 passing yards, 4 passing TDs) against Cincinnati, just a week after a 35.1 point performance against Dallas. Despite those performances, he and his $34 million annual salary are only owned in 5% of Dynasty Owner leagues, meaning few Dynasty Owners even have the opportunity to start Big Ben. He is unlikely to garner much additional ownership due to his high salary and age (38 years old), but he is steadily outperforming two younger QBs (Jared Goff and Carson Wentz) who make nearly as much in salary. Are there any Goff or Wentz owners out there who are going to use an amnesty provision to dump those QBs and pay a little extra for Roethlisberger and put Ben in their Starting lineup?  They might want to consider it since he should have been a Starter this past week.

RB: Devontae Booker (LV) – 21.3 points

After a poor season in 2019 with just 15.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, Devontae Booker was not resigned by the Denver Broncos and became an unrestricted free agent. In 2020, he scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in this low-scoring week against his former team than he did in all of 2019. He had 21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (81 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 reception, 2 receiving yards). His performance in Week 10 moved him up to the #46 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, so Booker probably wasn’t in the Starting lineup in too many of the 55% of leagues in which he is on a roster. He should have been a Starter as he was a Top 10 RB this week.

WR: Willie Snead (BAL) – 23.4 points

For the past three weeks, Snead has been the Baltimore skill position player to own, outscoring each of the following eight more highly owned of his teammates (Mark Andrews, Miles Boykin, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, David Duvernay, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram, and James Proche). Over that three week span, Snead has scored a total of 46.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This week, he was the only Ravens skill position player to score a TD as he had 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). His $6 million annual salary is likely keeping his ownership down to only 6% of Dynasty Owner leagues. He’s been the only Ravens WR worth having in your Starting lineup in several weeks and should have been there in Week 10.

TE: Cameron Brate (TB) – 12.1 points

Nowhere was the lack of scoring in Week 10 more evident than at the TE position. Without Travis Kelce playing, the top scorers at TE (Mark Andrews and Rob Gronkowski) had just 13.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points each. Only eight TEs scored 10.0 or more points and just six had a TD. One of those TEs was Cameron Brate from Tampa Bay who had 12.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). Brate is the #39 TE in Dynasty Owner and only owned in 5% of leagues due to his annual salary of $6.8 million. He was worth that salary this week with his first double digit point week of 2020. Double digit scoring by a TE makes that TE worthy of being in Dynasty Owner starting lineups and that’s where Brate should have been this week.  

Honorable mention to Pharaoh Brown of the Houston Texans.  Brown is currently unowned in Dynasty Owner as the Texans’ third string TE. However, he did outperform both of the other Texans’ TEs (Darren Fells and Jordan Akins) by scoring 10.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) this week. He would only cost Dynasty Owners $750,000 in salary to own, but it’s unlikely he’s going to be picked up in too many, if any, leagues, even though he should have been in Starting lineups this week.

K: Tyler Bass (BUF) and Matt Prater (DET) – 18.0 points

Both Bass and Prater were possible, but not guaranteed Starters for Dynasty Owners this week. They were both outside of the Top 12 kickers through Week 9 with Prater averaging 6.75 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and Bass averaging 6.3 points per games. Both were drafted roughly at the same time when drafted (Bass ADP 238.9; Prater ADP 245.1). This week, both also scored 18.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, although they did so in different ways. Bass had three progressively longer FGs of over 50 yards in the second quarter alone (54, 55 and 58 yards) plus 3 PATs, while Prater had two FGs of over 50 yards (53 and 59 yards), a 37-yard FG and 3 PATs. Prater’s game ending 59 yard FG was also a clutch scoring event to win the game for the Lions. Both should have been in your Starting lineup this past week (unless you own both of them, then you could have started either one).

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one player who probably was a starter but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who didn’t score too many Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in Week 10.

QB: Russell Wilson (SEA) – 9.4 points

Russell Wilson set a couple of dubious records with his Week 10 performance. First, he recorded his lowest number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points by far in the 2020 season with just 9.4 points (248 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, 2 INTs, 1 fumble – lost). Second, he had zero TDs for the first time this season. Finally, he recorded his first performance with less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points across both years of Dynasty Owner’s existence. Plenty of dubious distinctions for the Seattle QB. With just 2.0 more points, he would have reclaimed the top spot in Dynasty Owner scoring for the 2020 season. Instead, he put up his worst performance in two years and should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad.

RB: Devin Singletary (BUF) – 2.0 points

After a good start to the 2020 season, Singletary has cooled off recently with the emergence of rookie RB Zack Moss. However, Dynasty Owners drafted him very high (ADP 30.9) and he was still the #28 RB at the start of Week 9 and playing in a game expected to be high-scoring, so Dynasty Owners may have taken a chance with Singletary (or been forced to Start him) in Week 10. That was a mistake as he scored only 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (15 rushing yards, 1 reception, -5 receiving yards). His RB rank for the season is now higher than his ADP as he’s the #34 RB for the season. That’s a Bench player for your Dynasty Owner team, which is where he should have been in Week 10.

WR: Travis Fulgham (PHI) – 1.8 points

Travis Fulgham may have been the most pleasant surprise of the 2020 season so far. Released by both Detroit and Green Bay during training camp, he was signed to the Eagles practice squad and sat there until Week 4. In his first five weeks as an Eagle, he scored an average of 19.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with a salary of $540,000. He was seemingly on a pace to be the Value Player of the Year until things came crashing down in Week 10 with a 1.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (1 reception for 8 yards) against the New York Giants. He received 5 targets, so he didn’t completely disappear from the Eagles offense, but instead of being a Starter this week, he should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad.

TE: Jimmy Graham (CHI) and Jared Cook (NO) – 0.0 points

Both of these high-salary veteran TEs put up a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) this week on two targets. Graham has the higher salary at $8 million per year for two years, but has lower ownership (40% of leagues). He was also averaging 10.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the first nine weeks of the season and was coming off a 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in Week 9. Cook has a slightly lower salary ($7.5 million) but is only signed for this season and as a result, is owned in 90% of Dynasty Owner leagues. However, he was only the #16 TE prior to Week 10, but could have been viewed as a bye week Starter with Travis Kelce, Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz all out. Neither one of them should have been in your Starting lineup or on your Bench because of the dreaded Blutarsky.

K: Justin Tucker (BAL) – 4.0 points

While four kickers scored less points this week than Justin Tucker, none of them have the pedigree of the Ravens kicker. Tucker was the second kicker drafted in your Dynasty Owner league on average (ADP 172.2), the second ranked kicker in 2019 and the third ranked kicker in 2020 coming into the Ravens’ Week 10 matchup against the New England Patriots. He had also not scored less than 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a single game in 2020. All of that indicates that Tucker should be in your Starting lineup every week he’s not on bye. Not this week as he didn’t get many chances to kick (only three) and scored just 4.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (24 yard FG and 2 PATs). For the first time in a long time, Dynasty Owners would have been better off leaving Tucker on their Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap –

Out of Luck vs. Young Gunz

Out of Luck doesn’t appear to be correctly named as they got a lucky break in a low scoring game and defeated Young Gunz 102.4-100.2. Young Gunz had three players get zero points on their Bench (RB J.J. Taylor – inactive; TE Geoff Swaim – 0.0 points; Greg Zuerlein – bye week) and that may have been the margin of victory. Both teams underperformed their weekly projections by over 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and barely scored triple digit points. The win puts both teams in a tie in their League at 7-3, but the low score moved Out of Luck out of the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

Not only did Victor, the owner of Barbee Kilgore, lose his spot at the top of the Chase for the Ring, he also lost his Dynasty Owner match-up this week by scoring only 114.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In his place is Quaranteed for Greatness who moved up from second place to take the top spot after Week 10.

After ten weeks of the 2020 Dynasty Owner season, there are no more undefeated teams in the Chase standings. Even if you go to the app or website and check out the Top 25, you’ll see no more undefeated teams. Is there anyone out there who’s still undefeated?

Conclusions

It was a low scoring week in the NFL and as a result, in Dynasty Owner as well. We still had plenty of players who outperformed their projections or previous performances, but the scoring for those individual players who were the best of the week were down. Especially at TE, but not so much at kicker. With only three weeks left in the 2020 Dynasty Owner regular season, how are Dynasty Owners going to react to what happened in Week 10?

We will find out soon enough as, including today, we are just three days away from our next Thursday Night Football game and four days away from the Week 11 preview article. Please read the preview article to see how my Week 10 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in Week 11. Besides the weekly recap and preview articles, we will also have articles every week from both Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) as well. Reading their articles will help you figure out the ins and outs of Dynasty Owner and make you a better General Manager and Head Coach.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer goes live this week at 1 PM on Wednesday and again on Thursday night at 10 PM (Eastern). You can multitask by watching us and the Thursday Night Football game at the same time! If you can’t make it, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is up to 553 subscribers on YouTube. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 11 Free Agent Auction Targets

Author: Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl)

The way this football weekend started out for me was in an extremely irritating way. I woke up Sunday to my house having zero power which instantly meant no normal football day, and on top of it my phone was dead, so there was no scoreboard watching either. I had my soon to be wife call and see what was going on… a tree fell, no power until 4pm at the earliest! I don’t remember the exact time the power came back on, but I do remember finally sitting down flipping the RedZone channel on for about 30 seconds just to stand back up instantly screaming! This time the screaming wasn’t because of the frustrations of no football, it was because The Hail Murray had just happened. The play of the year had instantly flipped my Sunday upside down, and the best part is I am nowhere near a Cardinals fan, but man was that one of the best finishes I have seen in quite a while with both teams feeling they had it won. I mentioned a few weeks back that the Cardinals are 100% must see TV, and The Hail Murray only solidifies that

I will finally stop drooling over the Hopkins catch and get back into some Dynasty Owner, which I am assuming is why you are here. This week we happened to see quite a few players that are not highly owned perform well, and should turn out a decent free agent or two. Keep in mind as soon as the regular Dynasty Owner season comes to a close your rosters will lock for the remainder of the season, so tighten up your roster before it’s too late, and Tim puts his foot down. I would absolutely hate to see someone lose their championship game because of bench points, and on top of being the first loser in your league you wont even have a shot at the coveted Chase for the Ring. 

If you are in the top 100 and have a team that has been either hot as of late, or very consistent all year, the time is now to package your draft capital and lower level starters for sure fire production. Be sure to look at upcoming strength of schedule before making any trades. 

Salvon Ahmed (1-Year $765,000) 53% Owned

Has anyone had better luck in 2020 with no name running backs than the Miami Dolphins? They brought in someone none of us love, but we all respect this past off season in Jordan Howard. Coming into this year everyone in the football world thought Howard would be the lead back in Miami with Breida getting the passing work. That theory proved to be dead wrong with the emergence of Gaskin, and no preseason to see how bad Howard actually looked. With Gaskin hurt and on injured reserve the Dolphins went straight back to Howard, for about 4 plays looking just as bad as earlier in the season. Ahmed clearly outplayed Howard in the game against Arizona 2 weeks ago, so much so the Dolphins actually ended up releasing Howard.

The undrafted rookie out of Washington stepped in this past week handling a full workload, and managed to look really good while doing it. Ahmed tallied 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, and catching his only target for 5 yards, in his first NFL start against a solid Chargers defensive front. This backfield is still Gaskin’s job to lose once he returns from injury, but the way Ahmed has looked, he’s sure to have a stable role in this up and coming offense moving forward. 

The fact Ahmed is a rookie with a clear role the next few weeks on a very cheap deal makes Ahmed a must grab at this stage in the fantasy season! I would also like to mention that Ahmed is a player I have been what most would call “A Truther” on since his Washington days. I loved watching his highlights every bit as much as someone like JK Dobbins, or Jonathon Taylor over the off season, and if I can say anything about Ahmed its that he runs with a violent purpose and has above average vision. If Ahmed can prove himself as a pass catcher over the next few games that Gaskin is out hell have the makings of a potential three down back in the coming years.

Willie Snead (1-Year $6,000,000) 6.19% Owned

Its good ole Willie Snead back in your fantasy thoughts. It feels like just yesterday that Snead looked like a very underrated talent catching passes from the legend, Drew Brees. Those days unfortunately are long gone, and Snead has looked like a shell of himself ever since leaving the Saints. Though, Snead has started to find himself a nice little role in Baltimore with at least 4 catches in each of the last 3 games for the Ravens. The most impressive performance thus far is debatable (both in losses) between his 5 catch 106 yard day against the Steelers, and his performance in the monsoon Sunday night against the Patriots, with 5 catches for 64 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

If Snead is able to keep this type of production up through the remainder of the season he could become a great acquisition for owners that have the room to acquire him, just imagine how deadly Snead can be if Lamar figures things out. Hollywood Brown has struggled to become the number one guy we all hoped he would, and the past few weeks Snead has stepped up and looked like the true alpha for the Ravens passing game. I know Nick Boyle is a tight end who doesn’t do much in the pass catching area, but his injury should open up even more targets for the receivers due to the Ravens having to leave Mark Andrews in to block more than he has been asked in recent memory. Another positive with Snead is his deal is only for the rest of this year, meaning you can cut ties freely this off season.

Cam Sims (2-Years $540,000/yr) and Isaiah Wright (3-Years $763,333/yr) 10.31% Owned

I know I kind of took the cheap way out of this one, but I honestly couldn’t decide between the two for the rest of this season. My best advice on which of the two to take would be watch some film, and take the one your gut tells you to grab. Sims has came on strong the past few weeks playing on a massive 74% of offensive plays, culminating in 94% of offensive snaps against Detroit. Sims was able to grab 4 out of 5 targets for 54 yards on Sunday, following his huge 3 catch 110 yard day against the Giants. Sims is a big bodied receiver at 6 feet 5 inches tall weighing 215 pounds, a similar frame to that of Kenny Golladay. 

The teammate of Sims, Isaiah Wright has also been coming on strong as of late with a 6 catch 59 yard performance this past Sunday against Detroit. Wright is someone the Washington front office, and coaching staff drafted, and seem to hold in high regard giving him a little bit more potential over Sims in future seasons. I haven’t had the chance to take a deep dive into Sims just yet, but I have looked at Wright quite a bit this past off season, and he is a very talented kid who has the chance at a bright future in this league. 

The Washington Football Team has been a very hard team to judge by what they say, so take what you read from them about who will play lightly. The injury to Kyle Allen initially scared some fantasy owners away, but I think this may benefit the team as a whole from a fantasy prospective. Smith seems to want to push the ball downfield opening the offense up more than Allen, or Haskins throwing for 390 yards and completing almost 70% of his passes.

Jalen Guyton (2-Years $540,000/yr) 49.48% Owned

I have honestly been waiting all season long to put Guyton on one of these lists, but he just hasn’t shown the ability to produce in the short or intermediate game thus far. On Sunday against the Dolphins that all changed as Guyton put together the game I have been wanting to see from him, even if the stats were not all that good. Guyton showed up Sunday in a strange, but good way with just 4 catches for 24 yards. I know you may be thinking why in the world is this guy recommending someone who only had 24 yards of offense, but let’s not forget Guyton has proved to be the Chargers true home run threat this season hitting multiple times on deep touchdown receptions. 

If Guyton can start to play and perform more in the short game like he did on Sunday, we could start to see some games with 5 to 7 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown from Guyton. The fact Guyton plays with a fellow rookie, and what seems to be a budding superstar in Herbert, the future is bright for Herbert, Guyton and the Chargers offense. The Chargers are somewhat deep at receiver with Allen, Williams, and Henry (tight end) but none of them have shown the ability to be able to consistently stay healthy over their careers. Guyton is also a rookie on one of the cheapest deals you will find in all of Dynasty Owner, making him a must stash if you have the open roster spot. I absolutely love players like Guyton, or a Darnell Mooney in dynasty, because they have the ability to be a true lottery ticket very soon!

Marvin Hall (1-Year $690,000) 14% Owned

Marvin Hall had another Marvin Hall type of week in week 10, with 2 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. The type of day Hall had Sunday is exactly what you can expect from Hall most weeks, at least until Golladay comes back. While Hall did add a touchdown Sunday, we all know that cant be counted on, and usually just depend on the flow of the game for most players, especially of Hall’s caliber. 

Hall will never be a “sexy” pickup, or one someone will jump into a bidding war over, but he will get the job done for you on the bench, especially on his touchdown weeks. I am not too sure on how much longer Golladay will be out, but I have heard rumblings about him wanting a new deal, or out of Detroit, which is why he may be out longer than initially expected. There are also a few other things going in Hall’s favor with Amendola being hurt and possibly missing time, as well as the Lions having basically zero experience at his position outside of Jones, a couple rookies, and himself. The Lions seem to find themselves in shootouts every single week giving Hall plenty of opportunities to connect on a deep ball throughout the game, which is another one of those things fantasy managers tend to love.

Closing Thoughts

It’s just a bit bonkers to me that the free agent targets seem to be getting a little bit deeper as we continue to go through the year. I have two players this week that didn’t make the cut who could potentially have an impact in the coming weeks, and one of them in future seasons as well. Alex Collins for Seattle will more than likely get the start with the Seahawks scheduled to play on Thursday this week. 

Collins is only 1% owned with a very cheap salary (1 year $630,000) making him basically a risk free addition. The second player has much more upside, but is also a more risky pickup due to his length of contract, and price. Jakeem Grant (4 years $4,925,000) has looked good since Preston Williams went down with an injury. Grant has managed to snag 4 catches in each of the past two games, and adding a touchdown this past weekend. If Grant can build a rapport with Tua over the remainder of this season he could be a sneaky pickup, but he could also be a $5,000,000 cap hit who does nothing but take up cap space, and a roster spot…. Don’t you just love the NFL.

 In a perfect world we would all be fighting for playoff spots, not needing this list at all. Unfortunately we live in 2020 and its anything but perfect, though on the bright side we still have Dynasty Owner and football! I hope you all enjoy the pickups, and as always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 10 Preview – The Masters of Fantasy Football

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

We have a tradition unlike any other (The Masters) being played during the middle of football season this year instead of in early April. This has caused some changes to the usual NFL schedule as there are more late games than early games (6 late vs. 5 early). Traditionally, there are more early games but if the Masters has to be played in November, then the NFL game times had to get changed.

Usually when things are as new as Dynasty Owner, it’s difficult to have any long-term traditions. Dynasty Owner is ahead of the curve as we do have the Ring as our tradition. It’s our version of the green jacket given to the winner of the Masters. We have only had one Ring winner so far, but will be crowning a second one at the end of December with a big ceremony planned for some time next year. It’s just like the Masters champions dinner, except instead of Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson and Tiger Woods eating a fancy plated dinner with waiters at Augusta National, the Ring winner gets lunch at Chipotle with Paul, Tim and Seth. If you’re lucky, maybe you can get extra guacamole.

Another Dynasty Owner tradition is to highlight individual teams and Dynasty Owners in various ways. Contenders in the Chase for the Ring appear on the weekly Tuesday podcast and two teams are always featured in our weekly Match-up of the Week. That’s right, every week, we look at one Dynasty Owner game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 13th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 9 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Derek Carr – 18.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: La’Mical Perine – 5.8 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Marvin Hall – 6.1 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Jordan Akins – 3.9 (Bad recommendation)

These recommendations haven’t been the greatest, but this is the first week all season in which all four of them were Bad. Derek Carr was near the bottom of the QB pack in Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week with 18.7 while the rest of the recommended players didn’t hit double digits. Frank Gore had twice as many carries as La’Mical Perine for some reason, so Perine didn’t score many points. Both Marvin Hall and Jordan Akins had some opportunities with five and four targets respectively, but other players at their position were more productive. Let’s forget try to start a new tradition of four Good recommendations of players who should be Starters for your Dynasty Owner team.

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): Mayfield is only averaging 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, putting him as the #23 ranked QB in Dynasty Owner. Only once has he exceeded that average by more than 2.0 points. That was back in Week 7 against Cincinnati when he put up 44.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The rest of the time, it’s been pretty pedestrian numbers he’s putting up. The good news for Baker and Browns fans is that the Houston defense has given up more than average points to the opposing QB ever since Bill O’Brien was fired. In three of its last four games (and the fourth doesn’t count since it was Jake Luton’s first ever NFL game), the opposing QBs has gotten 7.6 more points per game than their season average. Add that to Baker’s average and he’s at 26.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is probably enough to be a low-end QB1 this week. That’s why Baker Mayfield should be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup this week.

Rex Burkhead (RB – NE): This goes against the traditional belief that it’s difficult to trust New England RBs because you never know what Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are going to do on a week-to-week basis. This week, it’s possible that Damien Harris doesn’t play with a chest injury and also that the Patriots bring Sony Michel off the Injured Reserve list and then have four RBs to split carries and catches, not just three of them. Regardless of whether Harris and/or Michel plays, both are likely to be ineffective since the Baltimore defense is only allowing 77.8 yards rushing per game to RBs, one of the lowest averages in the NFL. They are in the middle of the pack with an average of 5.6 receptions and 51 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs. In the past two weeks without Julian Edelman, New England has given the ball to Burkhead more than pass catching RB James White (22 touches for Burkhead to 10 for White). Burkhead is just on the edge of being in Starting lineups already as the #31 RB in Dynasty Owner. Move him into your RB2 or FLEX Starting lineup spot this week.

Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI): Mooney is the overall #57 WR right now in Dynasty Owner and the clear third WR in Chicago. The rookie fifth round draft pick is well ahead of second year WR Riley Ridley. Dynasty Owners were taking both of those guys around the same time in Dynasty Owner drafts (ADP 265.3 for Ridley vs. 268.6 for Mooney). And he’s closing in on Anthony Miller for the WR2 spot as they have almost an almost identical number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points (79.2 for Miller vs. 76.5 for Mooney). With RB David Montgomery not practicing on Thursday and still in the NFL concussion protocol, it feels like the Bears might have to pass their way to victory on Monday night against the Vikings. Especially since no one else on the Bears has even 100 yards rushing besides Montgomery (Mitchell Trubisky ranks second on the team with 90 rushing yards). Mooney led the Bears in targets last week with 11 as Nick Foles attempted 52 passes. That might happen again, so go ahead and get Mooney into your Starting lineup this week.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): Even though he was drafted to be a Starting TE (ADP 108.1), Gesicki hasn’t performed like one for most of the 2020 season. He hasn’t caught a TD pass since Week 3 and has only gotten a total of 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games with Tua Tagovailoa at QB for the Dolphins. However, in just the past two weeks, the Chargers have allowed 11.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Broncos TE Noah Fant and 13.2 points to Raiders TE Darren Waller. Gesicki should see more targets this week with Preston Williams out of the lineup and Isaiah Ford traded away. Pencil Gesicki in for double digit points this week and put him in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 9 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Tom Brady – 1.5 (Good recommendation)
  • RB: Ezekiel Elliott – 8.9 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Mike Evans – 10.4 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Mark Andrews – 5.2 (Good recommendation)

The Bench recommendations of Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans both ended up as Good with Brady having the worst QB week of anybody in Week 9 with a lowly 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Evans had 10.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That left him barely inside the Top 50 WRs for the week. Recommending having Mark Andrews on your Bench was also Good as he only had 5.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Ezekiel Elliott was barely inside the Top 30 RBs this week, only two points out of the Top 24, so that recommendation was really Just Ok. Three Good and one Just Ok recommendations equals the first week for three Good recommendations and first week without a Bad Bench recommendation all season. Hooray for me!  Now, let’s continue with that tradition in Week 10.

Tom Brady (QB – TB): Looking at the pattern of this season’s performances by the G.O.A.T. worked last week, so since he’s playing another NFC team (Carolina) this week, we’ll stick with it. Back in Week 2 against Carolina, the G.O.A.T. was held to 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which was his worst performance before last week’s 1.5 Dynasty Owner point performance. The Carolina defense has faced a Top 12 QB seven times this season (the G.O.A.T., Herbert, Murray, Ryan, Brees, Ryan again, and Mahomes) and held that QB to under 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in four of those games (including the game against the G.O.A.T.). The AFC-NFC split has widened as well after last week (42.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in three games versus AFC opponents and 16.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in six games versus NFC opponents). The pattern continues this week, so leave the G.O.A.T. on your Dynasty Owner Bench again.

Mike Davis (RB – CAR): With Christian McCaffrey expected to miss Week 10 with a shoulder injury, it’s Mike Davis leading the Carolina backfield once again. That’s not an enviable position as Tampa Bay has only allowed 502 rushing yards in nine games this season, lowest in the league even though they have yet to be on bye. In the three weeks prior to McCaffrey’s return, Davis only averaged 9.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game as Curtis Samuel emerged to score rushing TDs in two of those three games. Benching Davis against Tampa Bay this week is advised for all of his Dynasty Owners who probably rode him while McCaffrey was out and expected to get another week out of him in Week 10.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): It was just three weeks ago against the Cardinals that Lockett scored 59.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a single game, the highest point total of the season. However, in the past two games, he has scored only 7.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the 49ers and 8.0 against the Bills. While Lockett is ranked as the #4 WR in Dynasty Owner, his ranking is built on two games, the Cardinals game and a 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in Week 3 against Dallas. Those two games account for almost 60% of his scoring this season. Last year in Week 14 against the Rams, Lockett was held to 8.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’ll happen again so get Lockett on your Bench this week.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL):  Another repeat choice from last week is Mark Andrews. He was the second TE selected on average in Dynasty Owner drafts with an ADP of 37.1, just barely ahead of overall #1 TE Travis Kelce at 37.2, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations as he’s the #9 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner after nine weeks. He continues to be TD dependent, scoring just 4.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in games in which he doesn’t score a TD. The bad news for Andrews’ Dynasty Owners is that New England has only given up one TD to a TE this season (Foster Moreau of the Raiders), even though they have played three of the best TEs – Travis Kelce (10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points), Darren Waller (2.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and George Kittle (10.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). On average, TEs are getting only 2.9 receptions per game for 36.75 yards while playing against New England. Keep Andrews on your Bench again this week if you have a better option.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week

Out of Luck vs. Young Gunz

The tenth Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season features two beta users who are having excellent seasons. On one side, we have Billy and Out of Luck who started Week 10 in 24th place in the Chase for the Ring, but apparently not in first place in their League with a 6-3 record. That’s because their opponent this week are Vinny and the Young Gunz who stand at 7-2. Only one of these teams can survive and have a chance for the Ring and this week might go a long way to determining which one of them it is.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, it’s going to be a close game. Despite two Bench players on bye and getting the Young Gunz zero points, they are projected to prevail by a 135.9-131.7 margin. Does the Young Gunz projected margin of victory come from their Starters or the Bench? Let’s check and see.

It’s a little bit of both as the Young Gunz have a 3.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy point advantage from their Starters. Kyler Murray from the Young Gunz is projected for 8.2 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Justin Herbert from Out of Luck. Young Gunz also have an advantage at the RB2 position (Leonard Fournette over Giovani Bernard), but Billy, the owner of Out of Luck, reports that he just traded for Mike Davis (who he got for La’Mical Perine and a third round draft pick), so adding Davis to his team should change these projections and make it a much tighter game than currently projected. Bernard will shift to the Bench, so let’s check out how those Benches are presently constructed.

Even without a Bench kicker and Geoff Swaim as their Bench TE who got them zero points on Thursday night, the advantage in Bench points goes to Young Gunz by 4.8 points. The Young Gunz’s RBs and WRs are tilting the advantage in Bench points to their team, more than making up for Swaim and Zuerlein on bye.

Conclusion

Traditions can make things more special – turn good things into great things, but they take time to build. The Masters wasn’t a tradition unlike any other in its second year. According to this article (https://www.thescore.com/pga/news/742292), it was apparently first used by Jim Nantz in 1986, over 50 years after the tournament started.

Fortunately, Paul created the Ring to be awarded to the top scoring League winner right away, so we have had our Dynasty Owner tradition since our inaugural year. Having the Chase for the Ring contenders appear on the weekly Tuesday live podcast started out this year to highlight individual Dynasty Owners and their teams. Hopefully that tradition continues, and Paul and Tim continue to build more of them as we keep going.

Hopefully, it’s your personal tradition to read the preview article each and every week. Maybe your team will be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles every week from both Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well.

There will also be the traditional weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) and the weekly podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer on Wednesdays at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific) on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. We had a special live Thursday night podcast this week and you can catch a replay of that or any of the other Dynasty Owner videos and tutorials on YouTube as well. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 554 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Opportunity Is (Almost) Everything: Part I

Author: Matt “TheJerk” Morrisson (@DynastyJerk)

Hello all, and welcome back to another mid-week Dynasty Owner article…

Today, I’m going to delve into a topic that I’ve wanted to write about for a while now.  A little background on me…I am a numbers person.  I love mathematics, statistics and all science in general.  I was taught at a young age that these subjects are, literally, the future of our world.  With that instruction, I took an interest in data (specifically data recording) very early on in my life.  I applied myself in Algebra, Stats, and Calculus classes much more than I did in History, Geography or Languages.  I like numbers, and I like dabbling in “number crunching.”  Believe it or not, data is what drew me towards fantasy football initially.  I had zero interest in the NFL all throughout the early 2000s and rarely watched a game other than the Super Bowls.

Towards the end of that decade, fantasy football began to show up on my radar.  My interest peaked, not from the game aspect, but from the statistical side.  I joined a couple free leagues in 2007, and my fantasy career accelerated every year after that.  Hell, my interest in statistics is what allowed me to start doing rankings and articles for Dynasty Owner.  Obviously nowadays I watch the NFL and enjoy the games themselves, but if it wasn’t for fantasy football, I wouldn’t be as involved.  (It doesn’t help that my home team packed up and left for California)

At any rate, a few years ago I came across a few underutilized metrics that, I think, can help bridge the gap between opportunity and fantasy production.  So often we compare Player x to Player y without having the full context of their seasons.  I am guilty of comparing players that I know haven’t had the same opportunity.  These metrics are also a great way to see which players are on the field but aren’t receiving the opportunity you would expect.  This article will be limited to players in my Top 100 updated rankings.  Also, Week 9 stats are not included for this article as I wouldn’t have had enough time to update all players.  So, without further ado, today I will be talking about player’s…

  • Total Opportunities
  • Opportunities per Snap
  • Fantasy Points per Opportunity
  • Salary Compared to Opportunity

Quarterbacks

First, let’s start with the quarterbacks, and I’ll also define some of these terms.  When it comes to quarterbacks, I define an opportunity as any play that they attempt a pass or a rush (hence an opportunity for fantasy points.)  I do understand that rushing attempts for quarterbacks are more valuable than passing attempts, and they should be weighted accordingly, but I’m going to keep it simple for this article.  I’ll be using my Top 15 ranked quarterbacks for this section.

(QB Opportunities = Pass Attempts + Rush Attempts)

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunities
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,534365
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,760335
Kyler Murray, ARI$8,789,661318
Patrick Mahomes, KC$4,106,447318
Daniel Jones, NYG$6,416,014306
Swipe to see more on mobile

When looking at quarterback opportunities, no one in my Top 15 has more opportunities than Joe Burrow.  Burrow (365) tops the list followed close behind by Josh Allen (335).  This shouldn’t come as a surprise as both the Bengals and Bills are in the top half of the league in passing percentage, and both quarterbacks aren’t afraid to tuck the ball and run. 

So, we’ve looked at total opportunities for quarterbacks, but this stat can still be misleading.  Total opportunities don’t account for players that have missed time this season (i.e. Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott or Drew Lock).  In order to even the playing field, I’ve started to look at opportunities per snap. 

Player, TeamSalaryOpp/Snap
Dak Prescott, DAL$30,144,0000.67
Josh Allen, BUF$5,295,7600.64
Kyler Murray, ARI$8,789,6610.63
Gardner Minshew, JAC$677,7210.63
Deshaun Watson, HOU$3,463,5700.63
Swipe to see more on mobile

Opportunities per snap is total opportunities divided by the total number of snaps a player is on the field.  Using this metric, we can determine how often a player is receiving opportunities based on their time on the field.  For example, Dak Prescott continues to lead Top 15 quarterbacks in Opp/Snap.  Before Dak was injured, he had an opportunity in 67 percent of the snaps he was on the field for.  Essentially, the only plays that aren’t considered opportunities are when quarterbacks hand the ball off.  That really isn’t surprising because we knew Dallas was on a historic offensive pace before disaster happened.  Either way, Dak was receiving an amazing amount of opportunity.  Opp/Snap for quarterbacks can be closely related to a team’s run/pass percentage.

We can go one step further with our analysis if we decide to look at a player’s points per opportunity. 

Player, TeamSalaryPoints/Opp
Russell Wilson, SEA$35,000,0000.97
Patrick Mahomes, KC$4,106,4470.87
Deshaun Watson, HOU$3,463,5700.75
Justin Herbert, LAC$6,644,6880.75
Kyler Murray, ARI$8,789,6610.73
Swipe to see more on mobile

This is the number of DO fantasy points divided by the player’s total opportunities.  I like to think of this as how efficient a player is.  Given that this is an efficiency rating, it should be no surprise who stands at the top of the list…Russell Wilson.  Russ is so efficient this year, that he is averaging 0.97 fantasy points per opportunity.  This means for every one opportunity he has, (passing or rushing attempt) he is getting 0.97 fantasy points.  That is a truly amazing statistic and one that I almost didn’t believe.  It is most unbelievable because the second quarterback on the list is Patrick Mahomes at 0.87 points/opp.  Mahomes is having a phenomenal season again, but Wilson’s efficiency is unmatched.  Here’s another way to explain it…Russ has six more fantasy points than Mahomes this year, yet he has had 27 less opportunities (Mahomes hasn’t had his bye yet).  Remarkable.  Coming into this season, analysts were questioning if Wilson would be able to stay as efficient as he was the years before.  I heard it many times…”no player can have low volume and be that efficient for that long.”  Last year Wilson’s points/opp were 0.73.  So, not only did he keep up the efficiency, but he has become much more efficient.  I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but I want to give one final example for context.  Remember Patrick Mahomes’ season in 2018?  He finished with the second most fantasy points of any quarterback since at least the mid 1990s.  Well, Mahomes’ points/opp in 2018 was 0.87.  He’s on his same pace from 2018, but Russ’ season has been on a different level.  I don’t expect the 0.97 efficiency to continue, but then again, we’ve heard that before.

Ah but, like almost everything with Dynasty Owner, we have to think further.  We have to go deeper and find a way to bring salary into the equation.  This is where our mathematics runs out of steam.  I can prepare hundreds of stats for you, and they may all be true.  However, at the end of the day there are too many variables in Dynasty Owner to boil a player’s value down to one single formula.  I do feel like the best statistic we can look at to determine value is Dynasty Dollars per point (DD/point).  The fellas at Dynasty Owner have done a great job developing this statistic, and it is very useful.  The one thing it cannot account for though is a team’s available salary.  Let me put it this way…Who is the number one quarterback everyone would like to own?  The answer is clearly Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes.  They have been and will most likely be the best quarterbacks for the rest of the season but owning Russ for $35 million a year hamstrings the rest of your team.  Is he worth that price?  He is, but most teams are unable to afford him with their current lineup.  In the same way, would everyone like to own Daniel Jones?  Of course, they would.  He is on a steal of a contract for a quarterback and he is young, but the truth is that he is not providing enough fantasy points to justify starting him.  Jones is averaging only 0.39 points per opportunity this year.  That’s roughly half as efficient as Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert.

One final point before we move onto running backs:  I’ve heard a lot of discussion this year about whether Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow is better.  There are way better scouts and talent observers than me so I’m not going to be the decisive vote on that, but what I will say is Herbert has done more with the opportunity he has received.  Here’s how both players compare…

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesSnapsOpp/SnapPointsPoints/Opp
Justin Herbert, LAC$6,644,6882554510.571900.75
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,5343655940.611930.53
Swipe to see more on mobile

Herbert has taken 143 less snaps, has 110 less opportunities, and yet he has only three less fantasy points than Burrow.  Wow.  Let us also not forget that Herbert is $2.4 million cheaper than Burrow.

Now let me show you the five least efficient quarterbacks in my Top 15.

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesSnapsPointsPoints/Opp
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA$7,568,859265480.31
Sam Darnold, NYJ$7,561,929209372710.34
Drew Lock, DEN$1,752,704156277600.38
Daniel Jones, NYG$6,416,0143065031200.39
Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,5343655941930.53
Swipe to see more on mobile

I feel bad including Tua on this list because he has the smallest sample size possible…one game.  Regardless, he is on here.  Burrow makes the list based on his massive volume so far, but the other three quarterbacks have all been disappointing and this efficiency rating reflects that.

Running Backs

Using this same method, let’s look at running backs.  For them, I define an opportunity as any rushing attempt or target.  I will be using my Top 35 ranked running backs for this section.

(RB Opportunities = Rush Attempt + Targets)

Through eight weeks, who do you think has the most opportunities?  The answer shouldn’t be too surprising.  It’s Derrick Henry.  Despite ranking 38th in targets for running backs, Henry still leads in total opportunities.  There are no real surprises in the Top 5 as all are high volume running backs. 

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunities
Derrick Henry, TEN$10,278,000179
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL$15,000,000178
Josh Jacobs, LV$2,983,350172
Todd Gurley, ATL$6,000,000160
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC$2,705,393159
Swipe to see more on mobile

Once again, opportunity alone does not tell us the whole picture.  All this really shows us is which players are getting the most volume and not necessarily which ones are producing.  Let’s see how the Top 5 changes when we add snaps.

Player, TeamSalaryOpp/Snap
Cam Akers, LA$1,543,2580.58
Derrick Henry, TEN$10,278,0000.57
Dalvin Cook, MIN$1,588,3340.56
Josh Jacobs, LV$2,983,3500.55
Ronald Jones II, TB$1,767,9770.54
Swipe to see more on mobile

Once again, it is not surprising that Derrick Henry is in the Top 5 due to his heavy volume.  The Titans are fifth in the NFL in rushing percentage.  It stands to reason that if a team has a primary running back and they are run heavy, that primary running back will rank high in opportunities per snap.  Henry, Cook, Jacobs and Jones are all good examples of this.  However, Cam Akers is the clear outlier.  How could Akers rank first in the category when he’s only been on the field for 64 snaps.  The answer is simple.  When Akers is on the field, he is receiving more opportunities than any other running back within the Top 35.  Take from that what you will, but he is clearly being used at a high rate, when he actually plays.

I guarantee this one will surprise you.  Who do you think leads the Top 35 running backs in points per opportunity (efficiency rating)?  That player is D’Andre Swift.  He is currently averaging 1.30 fantasy points per opportunity (rushes plus targets).  To put that in context, the number two player in efficiency is Alvin Kamara at 1.28 points/opportunity.  If Swift had the same number of opportunities as Kamara and stayed on the same efficiency pace, he would lead all running backs in fantasy points this year.  Obviously Swift has a small sample size as far as opportunities go, but he shouldn’t be penalized for that.  He has been one of the most efficient players in all of football this year, and it’s time he deserves some praise and hopefully some increased usage.  I was so shocked when I saw him at the top of the list that I simply wrote “SWIFT!!!” in my rough draft.  I will be upgrading him in my rankings, and I look forward to tracking his Points/Opp throughout the season and his career.  Here is the rest of the Top 5. 

Player, TeamSalaryPoints/Opp
D’Andre Swift, DET$2,134,7281.30
Alvin Kamara, NO$964,4431.28
Dalvin Cook, MIN$1,588,3341.18
Chris Carson, SEA$616,2821.14
Aaron Jones, GB$650,4841.13
Swipe to see more on mobile

Every running back in the Top 5 is cheap to own for this year and have long careers ahead of them.  It’s an interesting trend, but it’s also nuanced because four of them are set for very large contracts in 2021.  It’s also unfair to large salary running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, and Saquon Barkley as they have all been inefficient for reasons unrelated to their play.  Let’s look back at 2019 and see how all three of these players would stack up to 2020’s Top 5.

***2019 Statistics***

Player, TeamOpportunitiesPointsPoints/Opp
Christian McCaffrey, CAR4294821.12
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL3723230.87
Saquon Barkley, NYG2902510.87
Swipe to see more on mobile

Every player in the top five has been more efficient than McCaffrey was last year, but don’t get too excited about that for a few reasons.  First, this is a small sample size, and it’s unlikely that they will all remain above 1.13 points per opportunity all season.  Second, not one of these players will get close to McCaffrey’s total volume last year.  In 2019, CMC had 429 opportunities which equals 25.2 a game.  The closest player in this Top 5 is Kamara at 21.8 opportunities a game.  This may go without saying, but a truly elite player is formed when they can combine top level efficiency with high value opportunities.  McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Carson and Jones all provide that when they are healthy and should all continue to be considered elite running backs.

As was the case with the quarterbacks, this is not the whole story.  We play on the truest dynasty platform ever made.  We are Dynasty Owners.  We have salary caps to consider and long-term contracts to weigh.  It is encouraging that many of the most opportunistic running backs this year are cheap, but that will be changing next year with at least eight elite running backs likely to sign contracts over $12 million.

Finally, here are the least efficient running backs inside my Top 35.

Player, TeamSalaryOpportunitiesOpp/SnapPointsPoints/Opp
Cam Akers, LA$1,543,258370.58190.51
Josh Jacobs, LV$2,983,3501720.551110.65
Le’Veon Bell, KC$1,050,000370.47240.65
Devin Singletary, BUF$974,5001230.35810.66
Kenyan Drake, ARI$8,483,0001290.41870.67
Swipe to see more on mobile

Thanks for making it all the way through.  In next week’s article I will be discussing wide receiver and tight end opportunities and efficiencies. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner