Blind Player Comparisons: Under Owned Players

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Author: Matt “TheJerk” Morrisson (@DynastyJerk)

Welcome back.  We all watched another riveting week of football.  This week included a four-touchdown performance by Dalvin Cook, five passing touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes, and another terrible loss for the Chargers.  Dalvin Cook had three rushing touchdowns (21 yds, 1 yd, 1 yd) and one sensational receiving touchdown (50 yds).  Even more impressive is the fact that Cook racked up all his touchdowns before the fourth quarter.  Cook ended the night with (a season high) 32 touches, (a season high) 226 total yards, and (obviously a season high) four touchdowns.  Cook was so dominant that while he tallied 226 yards, the rest of his team was left with only 107 yards.  Remarkable.  Speaking of season high performances, let us talk about Patrick Mahomes Sunday afternoon.  All five scores for the Chiefs came from Mahomes hand.  What really caught my eye is how unique two of the touchdown passes were. 

I’ll break down all five…Mahomes’ first touchdown was a 30-yard tap pass to Mecole Hardman.  Mahomes has already made a career off improbable and improvised plays, but none of them are prettier than a perfectly timed tap pass that develops into a score.  Mahomes’ second (36 yds to T. Hill), fourth (26 yds to D. Robinson) and fifth (41 yds to T. Hill) touchdown passes were all standard deep end zone shots, if you consider touchdowns of over 26 yards “standard.”  Mahomes’ third touchdown, however, was as creative as they come.  With one-minute left in the second quarter, the Chiefs were on the Jet’s three-yard line.  They were in shotgun formation with Tyreek Hill running motion to the right.  After the snap, Mahomes takes five steps to the right and makes a fully underhand throw to Travis Kelce who then turns and runs three yards into the endzone.  My words are not giving the play justice, and if you have not seen it, I suggest you look it up.  It was a great play from one of the best we have ever seen at the position. 

Finally, the Chargers lost another close game.  They lost after being up by 10 points with 8:02 left in the game and after being up by six points with 2:34 left in the game.  Denver scored a one-yard touchdown on the last play of the game to take the win.  This marks three games this year that the Chargers have lost on a game winning play (two game winning field goals in OT, and now the Denver loss). 

Today I am going to be writing about one of my favorite topics…blind player comparisons.  If you remember, I wrote a preseason article about some player comparisons that hopefully started to get you thinking about players and their stats in a different light.  As is everything with Dynasty Owner, the comps get much more complicated when you factor in salary and team’s available salary cap.  Without further introduction, let us jump into the first two players.

Quarterbacks

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

At first glance, I would concede that most Owners would rather have Bravo.  Yes, he is older.  Yes, he will not be playing for more than three years at most.  However, with nearly a five-fantasy point per game difference, Bravo is the obvious choice.  Also, Alpha and Bravo cost the exact same for the next two years.  Let us look a little deeper…

Alpha is already through his bye week, while Bravo has his scheduled for Week 13.  This fact obviously does not affect their fantasy points per game, but (on a small scale) it does affect Owners mindsets coming into the playoffs.  If you are in a tight race for the final playoff spot, and you have Bravo as your starting quarterback, there is a good chance you will be at a disadvantage in a must win Week 13 matchup.  Like I said, this should not affect our long-term outlook for either player, but it is not a throwaway fact.  It is important to consider if you are trying to win this season.

Another statistic worth considering is the rush/pass percentage for each team.  Alpha’s team passes on 53.6 percent of snaps.  This ranks as the sixth least through eight weeks.  Bravo’s team, on the other hand, passes on 60.6 percent of snaps.  This ranks tenth in all of football.  I can also represent my point this way…Alpha has attempted 235 passes this year while Bravo has attempted 268.  This is not a large difference, but it does make a difference.

Most of you have already guessed who Bravo is (probably solely on the age) but let me give you one more fact that somewhat baffles me.  In Dynasty Owner, Bravo is 96 percent owned.  (It should be 100 percent, but I will leave that conversation for a different article.)  Regardless, Bravo is owned in almost every league.  Alpha is only owned in 45 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues.  That stat is very surprising to me.  I understand that expensive quarterbacks like Carson Wentz ($32,000,000), Big Ben ($34,000,000), and Kirk Cousins ($33,000,000) are most likely not worth owning, but Alpha has outscored all of them on a per game basis.

Now for the big reveal if you have not guessed them already.  Alpha is Derek Carr and Bravo is Tom Brady.  Like I said in the beginning, most Owners would take Brady over Carr, and I am not disagreeing with that decision.  What I am saying is that Derek Carr is being undervalued in DO.  Maybe he should not be 100 percent owned, and he should not be started over Brady, but he is an above average quarterback who has shown the ability to give high ceiling games with a very safe floor.  At $25 million per year, Carr should be owned in more than 45 percent of leagues.

Running Backs

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

All things look pretty even here, right?  Delta may be a little more productive in terms of touchdowns, but both players seem to have a good number of opportunities per game.  (15 touches as a running back is hard to find.)  In fact, both players seem to be equally efficient with their touches.

Coming into Week 7, Charlie was on the field for 67 percent of his team’s offensive snaps which ranks thirteenth among all running backs.  Delta was on the field for only 58 percent of his team’s offensive snaps.  Charlie is the locked in number one running back on his team.  Delta is the lead back (especially in the passing game) but averages a roughly 60/40 carry split with his secondary back.  I would argue the backup running back for this team is more talented than Delta.  That opinion is reflected by the fact that he has 7.6 rushing yards per attempt through 45 carries this year.  Regardless of usage, Delta has been more productive than Charlie.

Now let us talk about salary.  Charlie costs $651,694 per year for the next three years.  Delta costs $8,000,000 per year for the next two years.  It looks like the tables have turned.  When Charlie and Delta’s contracts come into consideration, Charlie is the easy choice to make.  That is not to say that Delta does not deserve to be rostered (he absolutely does), but he is much less of a value than Charlie.  Well, Charlie is Miles Gaskin and Delta is Melvin Gordon.  It is easy to see why Gaskin’s ADP (258.8) was low coming into 2020.  The Dolphins had a very crowded backfield that consisted of Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Patrick Laird, and Kalen Ballage.  Gaskin took over as the lead back early in week one and has done enough to retain that role.  He is now 100 percent owned and proves to be one of the top five best free agent values throughout all of Dynasty Owner.  Melvin Gordon on the other hand has underwhelmed.  Anyone that drafted Gordon in the fifth round is not pleased with his 14.6 point per game output.  He has not been terrible, and he certainly has not lost your season, but he has just been average.

Wide Receivers

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

Much like my quarterback comparison, the theme of this comp will be percentage owned.  On the surface, it looks as if both wide receivers should have the same ownership percentage.  12-13 fantasy points per game is not spectacular, but it is generally good for WR 20 – 30.  Echo is currently WR 22 on the season while Foxtrot is WR 31.  Echo has not had his bye yet, which skews the results a bit in his favor.  Either way, they have had similar production through 2020.

So, I ask the question, why is one of these wide receiver’s 100 percent owned and the other is 60 percent owned.  The answer is simple: 2019.  In 2019, Echo put up 185 fantasy points in 16 games (11.6 fantasy points per game).  In 2019, Foxtrot put up 246 points in 16 games (15.3 fantasy points per game).  This also makes sense when you look at the 2020 ADP.  Echo’s ADP was 239.5 while Foxtrot’s ADP was 71.4.

Tight Ends

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

For this comp, I am going to tell you who the players are up front because that is not the surprise at the end.  Jimmy Graham (Golf) and Hunter Henry (Hotel) have very comparable stats through Week 8.  Henry has already had his bye, so his total fantasy points are lower than Graham’s, but their fantasy points per game are identical.  You can see that Graham has been more touchdown dependent than Henry.  Graham is eight years older, but he has a longer contract that is $2.6 million cheaper than Henry’s.

Graham is playing for his fourth NFL team, and he will, no doubt, have less longevity than Henry who is only 25.  Graham is also currently in a crowded TE committee that includes the athletic rookie tight end from Notre Dame, Cole Kmet.  At any rate, Graham has been producing this season despite competition.  I know what you are thinking…” you call 9.6 fantasy points per game a productive stat line?”  My answer is “yes.”  Less than ten points per game is not great, but it is a decent output for the TE position that is very scarce and continues to become scarcer.  If I had the cap room and Graham was available on the FAA, I cannot imagine I would not pick him up.  After checking both of my leagues’ FAA, I have found that the only tight end that comes close to the value of Graham is Jared Cook.  (The fact that Cook is available is baffling to me as well because he is owned in 87 percent of leagues.)

Well, here is the big reveal, and I had to double check my numbers because I did not believe it the first time.  Hunter Henry is owned in 100 percent of leagues while Jimmy Graham is owned in only 36 percent.  Once again, I am not saying I would rather have Graham over Henry.  I am saying that Graham has produced too much this year to be owned in less than 40 percent of leagues.

With that, I will leave you with the same message I put in my preseason Blind Comparisons article…

“I am attempting to show how nuanced certain statistics can be and how no stat or a group of stats can tell the entire picture.  Value is hidden within the statistics and the salary, and it’s up to the Dynasty Owner to find it.”

Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

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