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Week 11 Preview – Something to Play For

Week 11 Preview – Something to Play For

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Not everyone is having a great 2020 NFL season. For every undefeated 9-0 Pittsburgh Steelers team, there are teams highly unlikely to make the playoffs, such as the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1-8 or the New York Jets at 0-9. All three of those teams still have seven games to play, but the Steelers games are far more meaningful than the Jaguars or Jets games. The players on the Jaguars and Jets are still professionals and try their hardest to win, even while a lot of their fans are hoping that they continue to lose and get the #1 overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL draft.

While there are no 10-0 Dynasty Owner teams, there is at least one 0-10 team and possibly more out there. Many other Dynasty Owner teams are sitting at 1-9, 2-8 or 3-7 due to injuries, poor play or just bad luck in drawing quality opponent’s week after week, with little to no chance of making their League playoffs. The desire to lose for those fantasy football team owners can be great with the prospect of securing the top pick in your League’s 2021 rookie draft.

To prevent that, Dynasty Owner has created an innovative incentive to give Dynasty Owners something to play for and to try winning games at the end of the season. The winner of the Losers’ Bracket tournament in each League receives a Bonus Draft pick at the end of the 1st round of the Rookie Draft – Pick #13 and one Amnesty Provision. The Tournament Runner Up also receives one Amnesty Provision. Hopefully, that keeps all Dynasty Owners engaged throughout the entire season.

For some Dynasty Owners, they are stuck in the middle – their record is ok, but they don’t think their team is good enough to win their League and would prefer to lose, not make the playoffs and get a better draft pick. In my beta league, one owner (Matthew Montgomery) was in that position this week. His team was 5-4 but Matthew Stafford is his only healthy, starting QB. His thinking was that he’s doesn’t have a team that can win the League and openly admitted to hoping his team would lose. He still set his best possible lineup though and actually won this week to put him at 6-4 and in fourth place. Not what he wanted to happen but admirable since he could have tried harder to lose. Maybe he’ll lose the next three weeks, miss the playoffs, but have something to play for in the last three weeks in the Loser’s Bracket.

Our weekly Match-up of the Week will look at a team in the Chase for the Ring who is facing a team that has little chance for the playoffs but is still competing this season based on their lineup. They probably know they have something to play for this year. As usual for the Friday preview article, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3-point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 20th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 10 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Baker Mayfield – 6.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Rex Burkhead – 22.6 (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Darnell Mooney – 2.3 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Mike Gesicki – 6.0 (Just Ok recommendation)

At least Week 10 was better than Week 9 with one Good (Rex Burkhead) and one Just Ok (Mike Gesicki). Burkhead was just outside the Top 5 RBs for the week with his 22.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance. Mike Gesicki didn’t have a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6.0), but neither did many TEs, so recommending him was Just Ok. At the other end were the recommendations to Start Baker Mayfield and Darnell Mooney. Mayfield was the second worst Week 10 QB ahead of only Nick Foles, while Mooney was outscored by five players on his own team. However, even though our recommendations haven’t gone as we had hoped so far, we can’t stop making them and give up. With that, here are my Week 11 recommendations:

Alex Smith (QB – WAS): For just making it back to the NFL after his horrific injury two years ago, Washington QB Alex Smith should be the comeback player of the year. As nice of a story as his comeback is, he’s probably not the QB you want to see starting for your NFL or Dynasty Owner team this year. However, he has thrown the ball for a lot of yards in the past two weeks (325 yards in Week 9 versus the Giants and 390 yards in Week 10 versus the Lions). Not a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points either week (14.3 in Week 9 and 20.9 in Week 10) due to 3 INTs one week and zero TDs another. The Dynasty Owner fantasy points may come this week as he gets to face a Bengals defense that has allowed an average of 35.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to opposing QBs the past four weeks. Three of those four QBs (Phillip Rivers, Baker Mayfield and Ben Roethlisberger) were similar to Smith in that they are largely pocket passers who don’t run for many yards. In the games against those three QBs, the Bengals have allowed 40.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Smith probably won’t get that many points, but he’ll do well enough to crack the top 12 QBs for the week and be someone who should have been a Starter.

Gus Edwards (RB – BAL): Instead of a two-way split at RB, the Ravens now have a three-way split, but Edwards was less impacted by the return of Mark Ingram to the Ravens lineup than J.K. Dobbins. Edwards had 7 rushing attempts for 42 yards plus 1 reception for 31 yards (8.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). In contrast, Ingram and Dobbins combined for just 7.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week. Edwards is averaging 4.5 yards per carry for the season, while the Ravens’ opponent this week (Tennessee) is giving up an average of 4.4 yards per carry. The Titans defense has also given up 8 rushing TDs to opposing RBs this year and Edwards is the guy getting those for the Ravens now as Ingram hasn’t had a rushing TD since Week 4 and Dobbins hasn’t gotten one since he scored twice in Week 1. Edwards was drafted late (ADP 251.2) and is ranked as the #50 RB in Dynasty Owner, but he’ll perform well enough this week to be in your Starting lineup.

Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC): Guyton looks like he’s become the Chargers third WR at this point in the season after going undrafted in Dynasty Owner. He had a season-high six targets in their last game versus Miami, one less than Keenan Allen and one more than Mike Williams. He also has the ability to rip off big plays with two 70+ yard receptions this season. Guyton is getting more targets plus has the ability to break off a big play and now he gets to play the Jets in Week 11. Sounds like a recipe for a big week for the #82 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner. Guyton is only owned in 51% of Dynasty Owner leagues for a low salary of $540,000 so he might be someone you can pick up and put in your lineup this week if you’re in need of a Starting WR.  

Jared Cook (TE – NO): It’s probably been said before here, but bares repeating. The Falcons don’t defend very well against TEs. Only Buffalo has given up more receptions and more yards to TEs and they are on bye this week, so the Falcons have the opportunity to move “ahead” depending on the performance of Jared Cook. While Cook got the dreaded Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) last week, it was a miserable week for Drew Brees and a rusty Jameis Winston. Expect better from Winston this week and Cook should be one of his top targets, especially if Alvin Kamara doesn’t play. Cook also has a good track record versus the Falcons with 13.4 and 11.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against them last year. Admittedly that was with Drew Brees playing, but Winston is much better than your average backup QB. Unless your TE is Travis Kelce, you need to look for a good matchup and this is one so put Cook in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 10 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Tom Brady – 42.3 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Mike Davis – 8.4 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Tyler Lockett – 11.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • TE: Mark Andrews – 13.1 (Bad recommendation)

Not a great week for these recommendations. Trying to go back-to-back with Good Bench recommendations of Tom Brady and Mark Andrews failed spectacularly as both were the top players at their respective position in Week 10. The recommendations to Bench Mike Davis and Tyler Lockett were Just Ok as both finished just a couple of points outside of the Top 24 at their position for the week and were a fringe starter at best. This was the first week without a Good Bench recommendation. Since we can’t give up and have to keep giving recommendations, let’s try and see how they go for Week 11.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): The Indianapolis Colts defense has been pretty good at holding down opposition QBs from scoring too many Dynasty Owner fantasy points. On average, they are giving up 16.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with a high of 30.8 points to Matthew Stafford in Week 8 and a low of -3.4 points to Kirk Cousins back in Week 2. However, Aaron Rodgers is by far the best QB that they have faced so far this season, so they may have just done well against poor QBs. It’s possible, but Rodgers also may be due for a poor game especially if the Packers are forced to play without Davante Adams (or at least not have him at full strength). Bench Rodgers against the top ranked defense in the NFL.

Todd Gurley (RB – ATL): Gurley is currently the #10 RB in Dynasty Owner this season and totally justifying his ADP of 45.0 so far. However, if you look further into his stats, you’ll see that he has only been averaging 3.7 yards per carry – the lowest yards per carry of any RB in the top 10. He’s scored 9 TDs so far in 9 games, which is second best among RBs, but a TD per game average isn’t likely to hold for the entire season. He’s also only caught 15 passes for a mere 79 yards on the season, which accounts for just one-sixth of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points (22.9 out of 139.3 points). This week, Gurley faces a New Orleans defense that is allowing just 67.9 yards per game on the ground to RBs and only 3.4 yards per carry. Gurley will need to get 20 carries plus a TD to score enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to earn his spot in your Starting lineup. That’s a lot to ask for which is why he should be on your Bench this week.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): For the 2020 season, Tyler Boyd is the #13 WR in Dynasty Owner and averaging 16.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, his average drops to 13.7 points per game if you remove the two games against the Cleveland Browns. He’s definitely not playing the Browns this week as the Bengals travel to the Washington, DC region to face the Football Team. The Football Team has allowed the fewest receptions and second fewest yards to WRs this season. In addition, Joe Burrow is getting sacked 3.6 times per game and the Football Team is fifth in the NFL in sacks. Burrow might not have enough time in the pocket to find his WRs, so Boyd’s production could suffer this week. That’s why he’s better left on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Robert Tonyan (TE – GB): Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been looking Tonyan’s way ever since Davante Adams’ return to the Packers lineup. Tonyan is only averaging 3.6 targets and 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since Adams has been back. Even though Adams hasn’t practiced yet this week, the Packers could be getting Allen Lazard back in their lineup against the Indianapolis Colts. Rodgers is likely to look for either Adams or Lazard instead of Tonyan since the Colts are one of the best teams at defending TEs this season. They only allow an average of 3.9 receptions and 34.3 yards per game to TEs. Even though Tonyan is still ranked as the #9 TE in Dynasty Owner, his standing is skewed by his performances in Weeks 2-4 when he scored 60.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is nearly two-thirds of the 91.7 points he has scored all season. He hasn’t really been a Starting TE in four of the past five weeks. This week will make it five out of six as he should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week –

Docrob vs. just wanna win

The eleventh Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season features two teams with much different levels of success this season. Sitting in fifth place in the Chase for the Ring with an 8-2 record is the aptly named just wanna win. Their opponent Docrob is struggling with a 3-7 record so far. However, that isn’t stopping Docrob from trying their best to get a win this week as they are setting a pretty good lineup for a sub-.500 team.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, just wanna win will do just that in a high scoring game by a 154.0-135.0 margin. Despite their record, Docrob must think he has something to play for as he has a full complement of players in his Starting lineup and Bench.

The advantage from Starting lineups goes to just wanna win. Their WRs are projected to score 13.6 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Docrob’s WRs which is most of the 16.3 point advantage they have overall from the Starting lineups. Still, Docrob has a pretty good 3-7 team with Deshaun Watson, Josh Jacobs, Tyler Boyd and Travis Kelce all in their Starting lineup. It’s just that just wanna win has a better team.

Both teams have a full complement of Bench players and from the Bench, just wanna win has an advantage at RB with the tandem of Duke Johnson and Ronald Jones expected to outscore the two Broncos RBs (Philip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon) sitting on Docrob’s Bench. Kudos to both teams for managing their rosters well and setting their lineups already.

Conclusion

Everyone reading this article has something to play for this week and the rest of the Dynasty Owner season. For a few, it’s the possibility of being the second Ring winner.  For many, it’s a spot in the Playoffs and maybe a League title. And for many more, it’s maybe an extra draft pick next year to help turn your team around for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. How everyone does that is up to them but doing it the right way and trying to win is the best way to go.

If your team is trying to win, maybe it’ll be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Even with Thanksgiving week almost upon us, there will be a recap article on Tuesday and a preview article on Friday. We will also have the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) has next week off but still follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be the traditional weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) and the weekly podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific) on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 557 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

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