By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
Happy Thanksgiving to all of my fellow Dynasty Owners! Hope you had a great day, enjoyed way too much Thanksgiving dinner and all three Thanksgiving Day football games and have plenty of leftovers for the Sunday games and Monday Night Football. Despite 2020 being a difficult year in a lot of ways, we’ve had a full season of the NFL so far and I’m thankful for that.
A full season of the NFL equals a full season of Dynasty Owner. I hope that I speak for all Dynasty Owners when I express my thanks to everyone associated with Dynasty Owner. They should be acknowledged more often, but definitely this week, so let’s thank everyone associated with Dynasty Owner.
Starting with Paul for thinking up the concept years ago, bringing it back to life in late 2018, taking a chance and hiring me as a writer, and providing his full backing in every way possible since then. Thanks to Tim for running the day to day operations, keeping everything going with development of the game from Paul’s ideas to what it is today, all while hosting multiple podcasts and attending countless meetings. Thanks to Uncle Don for posting all of the articles from me and the other writers, providing excellent customer service to every Dynasty Owner with questions or issues and probably doing many other things that none of us Dynasty Owners know anything about to keep things going. Thanks to Seth for being the best podcast host in the business and his advice that has helped me to improve my appearances (believe it or not, they would be worse without his help). Thanks to the developers for creating the Dynasty Owner app, for all of the improvements over the course of this year and squashing all of the bugs that the beta users keep finding. And finally, thanks to my fellow Dynasty Owners for joining me in playing, promoting and supporting Dynasty Owner and to all of you who actually take the time out of your day to read these preview and recap articles and watch or listen to the podcasts. Thank you!
Two Dynasty Owners in particular who are thankful to be involved in Dynasty Owner are featured in the weekly Match-up of the Week. Both are in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring and play each other this week. They probably aren’t thankful for having to play each other, but regardless, we’ll look at their game, check out the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.
All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.
For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of November 25th.
These Guys Should be Starters This Week
First, let’s take a look at how my Week 11 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):
- QB: Alex Smith – 11.0 (Bad recommendation)
- RB: Gus Edwards – 0.6 (Bad recommendation)
- WR: Jalen Guyton – 1.4 (Bad recommendation)
- TE: Jared Cook – 1.6 (Bad recommendation)
That’s just terrible – no Good or even Just Ok recommendations in Week 11. There’s not a lot to say here. Smith was the best of a Bad batch of picks and he was only better than five other QBs this week. J.K. Dobbins had the week predicted for Gus Edwards and both Jalen Guyton and Jared Cook had one reception each for minimal yardage. Thankfully Week 11 is over, and we can move on to the Week 12 recommendations:
Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): Taking a QB in the playoff hunt playing his best football of the season against a worse team is pretty much a no-brainer at this point. Believe it or not, all of that is true about Daniel Jones this week. The Giants are thankful that despite a 3-7 record, they are in the thick of the NFC East playoff race. Their record is a half game better than the 2-7-1 record of their opponent this week, the Cincinnati Bengals. Jones had been playing better before the Giants’ Week 11 bye as he scored an average of 21.25 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 7-10 after averaging 12.3 points per game in the first six weeks of the season. It’s a positive trajectory for Jones heading into a game against the Cincinnati Bengals who will be without star rookie QB Joe Burrow and RB Joe Mixon. The Bengals might have trouble moving the ball and give Jones plenty of opportunities to score his Dynasty Owners some fantasy points and earn his spot in your Starting lineup.
Frank Gore (RB – NYJ): Frank Gore has been a steady, but unspectacular player for the New York Jets this season. Especially since Le’Veon Bell was released and Adam Gase stopped calling plays for the Jets offense. Gore has averaged 12 carries per game and 4.1 yards per carry since Gase gave up the play calling and 11.8 carries per game with an identical yards per carry since Bell was released. He’s been splitting time with La’Mical Perine since then but still received at least 10 carries per game. In terms of fantasy points, it’s been 8.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points since Bell was released and 8.0 since Gase stopped calling plays. Not a bad guy to have for your Bench. However, this week with Perine on the Injured Reserve list with a high ankle sprain and no other RBs worth playing on the Jets roster, it’ll be Gore’s time to shine against one of his former teams (Miami). Get Gore into your Starting lineup this week.
Jalen Reagor (WR – PHI): Since Seattle played on Thursday night last week, we couldn’t pick an Arizona player in this spot against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Thankfully, the Seahawks play Monday night this week so we can use an Eagles player in this spot. Even though outside of Travis Fulgham for a short stretch, none of their WRs have been worth having in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup, the matchup is too good to pass up. Kind of like that third (or fourth) helping of Thanksgiving dinner. So even though picking a guy named Jalen didn’t work last week, the choice this week is Jalen Reagor. The Eagles #1 draft pick has been working his way back from injury and started to produce with 13.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 8 versus Dallas, 8.7 points in Week 10 versus the Giants and 9.2 points in Week 11 versus the Browns (the Eagles had a bye in Week 9). Those numbers are only Bench worthy, but Reagor will step it up against the porous Seattle defense and be worthy of being in your Starting lineup this week.
Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): If this list was purely based on pre-season ranking, then Hooper wouldn’t be allowed to appear here. However, after 11 weeks of the 2020 season, Hooper hasn’t been producing as a Starting TE as he’s only averaging 7.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the eight games he has played. In the three games he played before missing two games due to a appendectomy, he put together a series of good games and averaged 11.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He hasn’t done well in the two games since his return with 2.1 points in Week 10 and 6.3 points in Week 11. However, he gets to play a Jacksonville defense that allowed 13.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Eric Ebron of Pittsburgh last week. Hooper should perform like the TE who signed with the Browns for $10.5 million per year, so get him into your Starting lineup.
These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week
Next up is reviewing the Week 11 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.
- QB: Aaron Rodgers – 29.8 (Bad recommendation)
- RB: Todd Gurley – 3.9 (Good recommendation)
- WR: Tyler Boyd – 17.5 (Bad recommendation)
- TE: Robert Tonyan – 15.4 (Bad recommendation)
Three Bad recommendations in a week for the first time this season. Thankful to Todd Gurley or else it would have been four. The other three were bad as Rodgers finished in the Top 10 QBs of the week, Boyd was in the Top 20 WRs and Tonyan was a Top 5 TE. Gurley’s 3.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy point week was the only Good recommendation and the first Good RB recommendation on the season. There are still a few weeks to go and improve our Bench recommendation record. Here are the choices for guys to Bench in Week 12.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): The third time’s a charm, right? Rodgers has been in this spot twice already this season and scored 43.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1 versus Minnesota and 29.8 points last week versus Indianapolis. And he’s been great all season, scoring 25.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in nine out of ten games. However, he hasn’t faced the Chicago Bears yet this season. Last year, Rodgers had 16.9 and 18.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Bears. So far this season, the Bears have faced three Top 12 QBs (Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan) and only allowed an average of 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Tannehill was the best with 20.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’s a lot of games with QB scoring in the teens, so that’s where Rodgers will probably end up this week, which means he should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench.
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN): For the entire season, Gordon is the #20 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, averaging 12.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the nine games he has played in. However, it’s been a tale of two seasons for Gordon as he averaged 16.65 points per game before his car accident and just 9.3 points per game since the accident. He did have 17.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week versus the Dolphins but needed 2 TDs to get that many points. This week, he faces a New Orleans Saints’ defense that allows only 66 yards per game rushing to opposing RBs. Since Gordon hasn’t been very involved in the passing game since his accident (9 receptions for 42 yards), he needs to get his points on the ground and that’s tough against New Orleans. Bench Gordon this week.
Mike Evans (WR – TB): Evans is averaging a career-low 12.5 yards per reception this season with The G.O.A.T. as his QB. And according to Ian Rapoport, the G.O.A.T. hasn’t completed a deep pass since Week 7 against the Las Vegas Raiders (https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1331297137011908611/photo/1). While Evans has scored an average of 15.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since the Raiders’ game, he has gotten TDs in three of those four games. The Kansas City defense has allowed the third fewest yards to WRs, the sixth fewest receptions and is tied for sixth in fewest TDs to WRs allowing only 8 TDs to them all season. Evans has needed to score TDs to keep up his #17 WR ranking in Dynasty Owner this season as he has scored a total of only 18.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the three games he has gone without a TD. Even though the Chiefs have allowed 31 points in each of their past two games with 4 TDs per game, just one TD in each game has been to a WR. No TD for Evans equals not good enough to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup. That’s what happens this week so leave Evans on your Bench.
Jonnu Smith (TE – TEN): As the #5 TE in Dynasty Owner, Jonnu Smith has also been very TD-dependent this season. He has 7 receiving TDs this season, plus a rushing TD in Week 10, but hasn’t been getting a lot of targets, receptions or receiving yards. He is averaging 4.9 targets, 3 receptions and 33.8 receiving yards per game to rank outside the Top 12 in all three categories (14th in targets and 15th in both receptions and receiving yards). Since the Titans’ unexpected bye back in Week 4, he has only averaged 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game compared with 16.4 points per game before their bye week. This week, he faces the Colts defense that gave up its first TD to a TE last week versus Green Bay. It’ll be tough for Smith to be the second TE of the season to score against the Colts, so he should be on your Bench.
Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week –
Russell Wilson’s War vs. Swamp Donkeys
The twelfth Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season is a clash of two teams in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring Standings. The 10-1 Swamp Donkeys are the #16 ranked team in the Chase, while their opponent, Russell Wilson’s War, have just a 7-4 record but are ranked #23. Both teams have consistently been in the Chase Standings and The Swamp Donkeys were our leader after Week 1.
Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the points will be rolling in. Russell Wilson’s War is projected to win by a score of 160.6-155.3 over The Swamp Donkeys. Is that advantage for Russell Wilson’s War coming from his Starters, his Bench or both? Let’s check out the Starters first and see.
The slightest of Starting lineup advantages goes to Russell Wilson’s War as they are projected to score 143.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points compared to 142.1 for The Swamp Donkeys. The Swamp Donkeys have only one Starter (Mark Andrews) playing on Thursday, while Russell Wilson’s War have none right now, so both teams should be able to relax and enjoy dinner and football on Thanksgiving without worrying too much about their Dynasty Owner teams.
Russell Wilson’s War extends their advantage when Bench scoring is factored in, especially at the QB position where they have Ryan Tannehill on their Bench compared with Jake Luton for the Swamp Donkeys. Russell Wilson’s War is likely pretty thankful for that edge at Bench QB, especially with the Wednesday AM news that Luton was benched for Jacksonville in favor of Mike Glennon.
Thanks to everyone who made it this far and read everything written this week. Week 12 will have already started by the time any Dynasty Owners have read this and hopefully you enjoyed your Thanksgiving, and your team is ahead in its match-up after the three Thanksgiving Day games.
I’m thankful that there were two Chase team playing each other this week as it made the Matchup of the Week choice pretty easy. If you need a win in Week 13 to make the playoffs and want to be featured next week, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33). It’s back to normal next week with the recap article on Tuesday and a preview article on Friday. We will also have the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl). Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) will be back on Wednesday with his insights as well. We are thankful to everyone who follows each one of us as well as Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.
There will also be the weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) with Seth and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and the weekly podcast series with myself and Tim on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific). Both will be streaming live on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 561 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!
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