Different Aspects and Strategies of Orphan Teams

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

I want to start by saying congratulations to our 2020 champions, as well as a huge win for Viktor in the Chase for the Ring contest. Even some of our 2020 champions will need to start looking at a rebuild as soon as this year. If you don’t believe me just go look at Victors team in the standings and you will see he has a ton of tough decisions to make heading into next season, you can also find him and his team on a recent podcast with Tim and Seth where his team is on display. I bring this up to encourage some of the owners who are in a much worse rebuild than any of our champions, just keep at it. Rebuilds can happen because of a multitude of reasons and in a format like this I believe your best bet is to somewhat rebuild after just one lost season, especially if you have a few players set to go up in salary.

I could have easily chalked up this year as a loss and found a way to fit CMC, Mixon, and Hunt into my team next season, but I decided it wasn’t worth the gamble with 2 of the 3 being hurt this season and all 3 getting new costly deals. Instead, I’m looking at Dobbins, Gibson, and Dillion for years to come on a much lower total salary. With running backs seemingly always aging faster than any other position I recommend moving them just before or at the beginning of their 2nd deals, unless you are ready to win now of course. I hope everyone is prepared for all the tough decisions this off season will bring, as always feel free to contact any of us on Twitter with questions.

Learning About Orphan Teams

Before we start getting crazy in depth on rebuilds, I want to touch on a very important part of rebuilding in a format like this, which is orphan teams. First, I would like to mention that orphan teams will become available sometime in the future so those interested just keep an eye out for an announcement. Orphan teams are one of the most fun aspects you will find in any dynasty platform, if you have never tried out an orphan team, I highly recommend it.

There are several factors at play here with my favorite being that you are not mentally attached to any one player, for instance in a league I joined with my dad and his buddies I took an orphan team over and, on that team, I have zero of the old owners’ players, yet I still have Kareem Hunt ($3,259,000) who I took with my first ever pick in that league. A lot of players overlook this fact when comparing taking over a team to a startup league but it’s almost always true, I mean despite all the trouble Hunt has gone through I’ve never considered trading him, which hurt me late this season when I countered a trade that then fell through because I just couldn’t trade Hunt.

Orphans in Dynasty Owner seem like they will take a little longer than regular leagues when rebuilding because of the salary cap, with some of the issue being how much an unproven high-end rookie will make. If you are paying someone like Burrow ($9,074,534) each season and he turns out to be average, you will have an uphill battle to climb when playing top level teams. I know most will push back and say that’s the case in any league which is true, but those leagues don’t have players like Aaron Rodgers ($33,5000,000), or Brandin Cooks ($16,200,000) as available free agents with no hopes of being picked up, in most leagues. The player pool is much more limited in this format with their only being so much money to spend on so many roster spots.

The last aspect of orphan teams I want to touch on is flat out where to start. While this is up for debate, I believe you should start by setting up a 2–3-year plan and trying to be patient when executing that plan. This is what my plan looks like.

  • Trade away players over 26-28 years old (QB’s can be an exception) no one is untouchable if offered the right price.
  • Draft or trade for two very young tight ends as they take years to develop.
  • Find your franchise quarterback first, so that by the time they’re consistently playing well the rest of your roster will be ready.
  • Target 1st or 2nd year wide receivers who have shown some promise
  • Finally, go out and target young running backs who are performing and seeing good volume.
  • When ready trade your precious draft capital for the final pieces.

Breakdown

1. Trade Away Players Over 26-28 Years Old

I know it may sound unrealistic when I say trade anyone over 26-28 years old, but in this format, I honestly feel it’s the best route to go. This can all vary depending on position as you may be able to stretch that age for a player at the tight end or quarterback position. At the tight end spot, we have seen players remain productive in terms of the position much longer than a running back or wide receiver with quarterback always being the king of dynasty longevity. The wide receiver position is one I would say you can push more towards 28, if you feel confident in your rebuilding skills.

Once a receiver gets near age 30 their production tends to start falling off and they almost always have a high salary that comes with them just look at A.J Green ($17,971,000) and Julio Jones ($22,000,000). I say trade them before they start to dip, and you lose value. At the running back position, I will be looking to trade around the start of their 2nd deal with keeping them a year into their 2nd deal being an option in certain cases. Any expert will tell you a running back is at his peak the moment he gets drafted.

2. Draft Two Young Tight Ends

When taking over an orphan team one of your first transaction priorities need to be acquiring two young tight ends. The tight end position rarely, if ever produces a star in the first 2-3 years, so acquire them early and let them develop. A great example of this is on my Dynasty Owner team I have Dallas Goedert ($1,406,068), Drew Sample ($1,376,574), and Adam Trautman ($1,124,850) in hopes they’ll all be producing relatively well in a year or two. If you happen to miss on these tight ends you can always try to trade for a Dallas Goedert, before he blows up and demands a Darren Waller trade price.

3. Find Your Franchise Quarterback

When taking over a team in this situation I’m assuming you will be struggling at the quarterback position… at least most will be. I highly recommend drafting or acquiring a quarterback before you start your first season, with the reason being you won’t be winning that first season and sometimes it takes a rookie a few weeks to get on the field, which will put a damper on your playoff chances. Finding players before they develop will help any rebuild, but if you were able to get Justin Herbert ($6,644,688) just before his first start he would have been had for half the price that he is now. Another great example is Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) this season and all the ups and downs he has faced, yet he’s still shown promise for the future. If you really dig into it, I’m willing to bet only a handful of teams had a starter on Tua’s fantasy level.

4. Target 1st or 2nd Year Wide Receivers

Rookie and 2nd year wideouts tend to be cheaper to acquire than a wide receiver of Deandre Hopkins ($16,200,000) level. If you are going to trade early during your orphan team rebuild you should be targeting players like CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), as he is projected to end up being a Hopkins type player eventually, he will also be half the salary for many years to come. Rookie receivers come into the league in their early twenties and usually produce all the way through their age 29 season. As Rich Dotson always says about young receivers “what feels like an overpay today, will be an underpay tomorrow.” I would also recommend taking chances on your favorite struggling rookie receivers as they tend to start slow and blow up later, cough cough Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701). Another great strategy is targeting injured rookie receivers like Michael Pittman Jr. ($2,153,212) this season.

5. Target Young Running Backs Getting Volume

After your first season when things are starting to look up and you have a bunch of young studs on your roster almost ready to compete, it’s time to target your running backs. You can trade for running backs, but they will cost you if they have a clear role with any type of volume. Your best bet to acquire running backs are hitting your draft picks and get lucky in free agency. If you end up missing on draft picks you can turn back to the receiver strategy and target players who are injured or starting slow like J.K. Dobbins ($1,432,359) this season. Owners almost always hold good running backs for a king’s ransom, so I tend to try and find other avenues when acquiring running backs. You could always just find the next James Robinson!

6. Trade Your Precious Draft Capital

This may be an unpopular take with some but I’m a firm believer in having to give up assets when it’s time to end a full rebuild. The only possible way to avoid this is to hit on everything, which almost never happens. If you have managed to get this far still having yours and other owners draft capital, it’s time to cash it in for a sure thing. There is nothing that’s guaranteed in fantasy and those percentages drop even more with rookies. I know it may be hard but do not be afraid to overpay a little at this point for a top tier player, especially at the weak spot on your roster. There are a lot of owners out there who miss a championship because they held onto their draft picks like golem holds the ring.

Conclusion

As you can see orphan teams can be extremely challenging and a tough task to complete, but most of us are here for a fantasy challenge and this could be right up most of our alley. One thing I have yet to mention are the rare cases of an owner receiving an orphan team that doesn’t need much work. While rare this does happen, in fact I’ve seen owners take over a solid orphan team and win a championship right out the gate. The last thing I want to touch on this to anyone considering an orphan team is don’t get overwhelmed and be patient when making deals, the first deal isn’t always the best, in fact it’s usually the worst. I hope everyone enjoyed this season and plans to be back next year. I also want to challenge everyone who reads this to invite a few friends to the platform, the more that join the more Dynasty Owner is capable of. As always enjoy your Chase for the Ring 2021 edition!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Takeaways from Each Team (Part 2)

By: Matthew “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

As I write this article, a new Chase for the Ring Champion has been crowned. Barbee Kilgore (Viktor) has won the ring with a regular season record of 10-3, and he scored over 50 points more than the team that finished second. Congratulations on a great season, and we will see if he is able to repeat as Champion in 2021.

Today I’m going to be wrapping up my two-part series that highlights at least one player from each team in an attempt to bridge this season’s fantasy production with projections for the 2021 season. Starting next week, I will start my preseason long series. In this series, I will look at one team per week and break down two or three contracts from players on that team. In addition, I’ll be constantly updating and analyzing potential new contracts. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all, but first, let’s wrap up this year.

Cam Akers ranks third in fantasy points for a running back…on his own team. It has been a disappointing fantasy season for the 21-year-old rookie, but it’s not totally unexpected. It’s not common for a rookie running back to take over the starting job on Day 1, and I’m not sure anyone predicted that would happen for Akers. Darrell Henderson (RB33) and Malcolm Brown (RB43) have been thorns in the side of Akers’ owners all season, and the backfield has operated as a three headed monster. I have Akers as RB7 for the 2020 rookie running back class going into the 2021 season. With the increased usage recently, I have Akers as a buy candidate over the offseason.

Speaking of rookie running backs that don’t usually take over immediately…

James Robinson is the exception. He (as I’ve mentioned in past articles) has risen faster than any rookie I’ve analyzed. The rookie running back rule certainly doesn’t apply to him. While he unfortunately missed Championship Week, he still finished the season as RB4 and had 20.6 touches per game. That volume ranks third among all running backs. It’s truly amazing how fast Robinson has jumped from an undrafted fantasy running back to a Dynasty Owner Top 10 running back.

Let’s do a mini blind contract…

Who is this player?

He costs less than 2 million dollars, and his current contract expires in 2022. He finished with 48 receptions, 656 receiving yards and six touchdowns. This production netted him 149.6 fantasy points. You may have a good idea of who it is, but this will leave no doubt in your mind…

He finished seventh at his position.

No wide receiver that puts up less than 150 fantasy points could finish at seventh for the position, so we know he is a tight end.

That’s right, the player is Mike Gesicki. I have talked about Gesicki quite a bit this season, and I’m sure I’ll talk about him more over the offseason as he remains one of my favorite dynasty tight ends. Let’s hope Miami’s run heavy offence will yield enough opportunity for him over the next couple of years.

Justin Jefferson finished the fantasy season with 79 receptions for 1,267 yards and seven touchdowns. He ranks as the WR8 and will be a rock-solid Top 20 pick in Dynasty Owner start up drafts next year. Jefferson has far exceeded my expectations this year as he jumped from my WR4 for 2020 rookies all the way to WR1. Barring injury, his baseline for 2021 will be 70 rec – 1,000 yds – 6 TDs.

A lost season for the Patriots is something that hasn’t been seen in over a decade. I honestly don’t know where they go from here. It’s not a sure thing that Cam Newton will return in 2021, and their lack of offensive weapons is troublesome. The biggest player takeaway I have from 2020 is N’Keal Harry. Harry has had a disappointing career to say the least. A first-round pick in the 2019 draft, Harry was the first (and only) wide receiver that Bill Belichick has drafted in the first round as head coach of the Patriots. The Pats and Belichick rarely miss on draft picks, but it’s continuing to look like Harry was a miss. He finishes the season as WR101 where his best single game performance was eight receptions for 72 yards in Week 2. I’m not dropping Harry yet, but I would trade him for just about anything at this point.

Who is the highest scoring non quarterback this season?  You guessed it. The answer is Alvin Kamara. A running back that doesn’t reach 1000 rushing yards by Week 16 is the overall fantasy points leader for the position.  Unbelievable. Kamara did this by doing what he always does: posting modest rushing attempts with a high volume of receptions. Pair this with the fact that the Saints are fourth in points per game, and you have a recipe for fantasy gold. Kamara was so dominant this season that if you take away all of his PPR points (all points he received from receptions) he would be RB4 on the season. Owners will have to make tough decisions in order to keep Kamara for 2021 as his cap hit will increase by more than 14 million dollars. The reality is that you can’t “afford” to drop him.

Saquon Barkley ($7,798,688) barely had a chance to show anything this season. He was tasked with playing one of the best rushing defenses in Week 1 (Pittsburgh), and then he tore his ACL in his right knee in Week 2. We saw how much success Wayne Gallman had especially through the middle stretch of the season, and we also know how much better Barkley is than Gallman. I have no concerns for Saquon coming into 2021.

“His name is Chris Herndon… His name is Chris Herndon…”

Pardon my Fight Club reference, but if you weren’t paying close attention this year, you may have assumed Herndon retired over the offseason. In a year where the tight end position was as scarce as I’ve ever seen it, Herndon was almost non-existent. He finished as TE45 on the season with 52.4 fantasy points. He had eight games with less than two fantasy points including five games with no catches and one with -1.7 points. Herndon had a single game this year where he would have been startable and (not surprisingly) it came in Championship Weekend when no one would dare start him. The only silver lining that I can see for him is the fact that Adam Gase will almost certainly be gone for 2021, and the Jets’ new head coach will realize the talent that has been wasting away. If you drafted and continue to roster Herndon, I feel your pain. I drafted and still own him in both of my Dynasty Owner leagues.

I had Josh Jacobs ranked as my RB2 coming into 2020. While I’m not ready to say that was a bad call, there is not doubt that he has had a disappointing season for where he was drafted. I wrongly assumed that Jacobs would become much more involved in the receiving game and that he would lead the Raiders’ backfield with at least a 75 percent snap percentage. Instead, Jacobs’ snap percentage for the season was 63% and that puts him 13th among all running backs. Jacobs’ usage has been baffling to me especially when he has shown to be the far superior back in Las Vegas. Regardless, I am not an NFL coach and there is no doubt that I know much, much less than Jon Gruden. I look forward to Jacobs having more than 33 receptions in 2021.

Another tough question for you…

Which Eagles wide receiver has the most fantasy points on the season?

The answer is Greg Ward. Ward (132) has almost 20 more than Travis Fulgham (113) and almost 50 more than Jalen Reagor (85). There is no doubt in my mind that Reagor or Desean Jackson would have led this list had they been healthy for all 15 games, but Ward is the correct answer. This section isn’t a compliment to Ward, but it goes to show that not one wide receiver for Philadelphia could be trusted this season. In fact, if Dallas Goedert could be included in this comparison, he would rank second with 116 fantasy points. Let’s hope Jalen Hurts will have a full complement of healthy players going into and continuing through 2021.

George Kittle sank a lot of Owners this year. Through no fault of his own, he missed eight games this season. More disappointing is the fact that Owners will now have to make a tough decision about how to stay under the cap while also keeping Kittle for 2021. There’s not really much to say here…make it happen.

Let me see if I can go back and pull a quote from my “Top Ten Through the First Quarter” article…Keep in mind that this was written between Week 4 and Week 5.

“Tyler Lockett ($10,250,000) and DK Metcalf ($1,146,513) both slide into the Top 10. It may appear odd that two players from the same team are WR4 and WR7, but what’s even more surprising to me is the fact that they are tenth (Lockett) and twentieth (Metcalf) in targets for wide receivers. Once again this shows the efficiency of Russell Wilson and his receivers. If Russell cools down (which I assume will happen), I expect both Lockett and Metcalf to fall in the rankings. While I project good seasons for both these receivers, I don’t see them both finishing inside the Top 10 given their “lowish” volume. It may be late advice, but I’d obviously take Metcalf over Lockett the rest of the season, given the more than nine-million-dollar difference between them.”

I think it was fine advice at the time, and for the most part, it rang true. Metcalf finished WR5 while Lockett finished WR12. Russ cooled down dramatically over the second half of the season as he finished at QB5. Going forward, it’s going to be hard to trust Lockett while Metcalf should be thought of as a Top 5 WR in Dynasty Owner.

James Conner is in the final year of his rookie contract, and he will become an unrestricted free agent. I’m anxious to see where he lands and what his second contract will be worth. While he should be kept until news breaks about his potential new team, I would not be actively trying to buy him. There is just too much uncertainty that comes with free agency.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a player that I was very excited about coming into 2020. Most notably, Steve VT wrote about my love for him in a preseason article as I “reached” for him in my BETA league draft. I wouldn’t say that I want the pick back because I see Vaughn as an above average running back in this league within a few years, but there were a lot of players still on the board that could have helped me win a title this year that I passed on. At any rate, I would be a buyer for Vaughn in the offseason if his current Owner has given up.

Who is Corey Davis, and what should be doing with him?  It’s a loaded question and one that I’d prefer not to answer until we know the details of his upcoming contract. Davis is an unrestricted free agent after this season, and we already know that his 5th year option was declined by the Titans. He’s had a very rocky career, but it seemed like he was starting to bring things together this year. Even with the ups and downs, I expect Davis to make more than his current contract (per year). He currently makes a little north of 6.3 million dollars per year.

Logan Thomas has evolved into a high-volume tight end over the second half of the season. Thomas was unranked and undrafted in the majority of Dynasty Owner leagues this year. His finish as TE5 is, therefore, very impressive and great value for whoever claimed him through the Free Agent Auction. Thomas will be a free agent in 2022, and I see no reason why he can’t be a very productive tight end in Washington at least for one more year. His salary of $3,072,500 is very affordable for a tight end, especially as we see Kelce and Kittle getting large contracts.

Thank you all for reading, and I hope all of you have a Happy New Year. See you in 2021.

TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 16 Recap: Cinderella and the New King

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Here they are! Dynasty Owner has a new King in Viktor, the Owner of Barbee Kilgore and your 2020 Dynasty Owner Chase for the Ring Champion. We also have our Cinderella in the upstart, never say die Champion of the Crossroads League, our podcast host and the Voice of Dynasty Owner Seth Kerechanin, Ph.D. and his team CLE Piggy Pauls.

For weeks, we have been following both of these Dynasty Owners in their quests for immortality. Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team entered the Chase for the Ring Top 10 in the #2 spot way back in Week 8 and never left. He moved up to first place in Week 9, dropped back to second place for a week, but roared back into first place in Week 11 and never looked back. Congratulations to Viktor on becoming the second Chase for the Ring Champion!

All throughout the playoffs, we have chronicled Seth’s Quest for a Dynasty Owner Title as the plucky underdog who lost his starting QB (Joe Burrow) to injury in Week 11, but then ripped off consecutive regular season victories to make his way into the playoffs. From there, Seth and his CLE Piggy Pauls team kept on being the underdog and kept on winning. Seth was supposed to lose first to Girthquake, but took them out in the first round. After that, it was Dynasty Owner Tim and his Real Timo’s Titans who were favored in the semi-finals by over 50.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points but ended up going down to defeat. Finally, it was Dynasty Owner Don who came in as a 37.0 point favorite. It didn’t matter as Seth won again to claim bragging rights for all eternity as the winner of the Crossroads League title. Congratulations to Seth in fulfilling his quest!

In addition to seeing Seth’s margin of victory and looking at who won in our other Match-up of the Week, we’ll name the final Dynasty Owner Player of the Week and Value Player of the Week of the 2020 season. As usual, we’ll also highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. An updated Top 10 Chase for the Ring standings is also included. We had several familiar teams lose their playoff finals and therefore, they no longer appear in the Standings.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 29th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our final 2020 Dynasty Owner Player of the Week is: Alvin Kamara

It was a Merry Christmas for Alvin Kamara and everyone who has him on a fantasy football roster. Kamara set a new personal best with 58.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (155 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs, 3 receptions, 17 receiving yards). His previous best was 44.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points back in Week 3 against Green Bay when he was the Value Player of the Week. Kamara set a new Dynasty Owner record for most points in a game by a RB, but didn’t set the record for most in a single game. That record is still held by Tyreek Hill who scored 63.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points back in Week 12. Kamara vaulted ahead of Dalvin Cook to finish the 2020 Dynasty Owner season as the #1 RB with 379.9 points, or an average of 25.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Overall, he justified his 7.7 ADP by finishing as the top non-QB scorer for the 2020 season.

  • Week 16 Points: 58.2
  • 2020 Salary: $964,443
  • Cost per Point: $16,571

Congratulations Alvin on becoming the first player in 2020 to win both the Player of the Week and Value Player of the Week honors!

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The final 2020 Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week is: Myles Gaskin

Gaskin was a tremendous value for his Dynasty Owners in Week 16 and for the entire season when he was healthy. In his return to action after missing two games, he scored 33.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (87 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). That’s a lot of points for a player who only costs his Dynasty Owners $651,694 in salary. Gaskin did not enter the 2020 season as the favorite to be the top Miami RB, but he has definitely played that way, scoring 144.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in only 9 games. That’s an average of 16.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. His salary runs through the 2022 season, so provided he doesn’t get a new contract in the off-season, his Dynasty Owners should expect plenty of value from him over the next two seasons.

  • Week 16 Points: 33.9
  • 2020 Salary: $651,694
  • Cost per Point: $19,224

Congratulations Myles on your first Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor!

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 16. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Alvin Kamara or Davante Adams because barring injury or bye week, both of them should always be in your Starting lineup, especially in the playoffs. Instead, these are players who might normally be on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 16 when they should have been.

QB: Andy Dalton (DAL) – 36.3 points

A lot of people thought that a QB from the Dallas-Philadelphia Week 16 game would be a good player to help your team win your League Championship or the Loser’s Bracket tournament. However, almost all of them thought it would be Jalen Hurts, not Andy Dalton. Hurts filled up the stat sheet, but only had 21.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (342 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 69 rushing yards, 2 INTs, 2 fumbles – 1 lost) compared to 36.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (377 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 15 rushing yards, 1 INT) for Dalton. Dalton had played well since returning from bye and being injured with an average of 22.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the past five weeks. However, he hadn’t scored more than 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a single week until Week 16. Hopefully if you own Dalton, you put him in your Starting lineup this week and he helped you to victory.

RB: Samaje Perine (CIN) – 32.6 points

Samaje Perine’s claim to fame prior to his Week 16 breakout performance was probably being the older brother of Jets’ rookie RB La’Mical Perine. La’Mical was expected to play more and better than Samaje when the season started, but Samaje’s 32.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (95 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 4 receptions, 41 receiving yards) made him the family point leader for the 2020 season. He had only scored 31.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points up until this week and trailed La’Mical by 16.3 points for family bragging rights. For the Dynasty Owners with Samaje on their roster (all 23% of you), hopefully you were playing for a League Championship and had him in your Starting lineup.

Honorable mention to A.J. Dillon of the Green Bay Packers. Dillon was owned in 100% of Dynasty Owner leagues and was drafted as ADP 112.3, but he hadn’t played much at all in the 2020 season. Prior to Week 16, he had only scored a total of only 14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Given a chance to play in the snow with usual backup RB Jamaal Williams out, Dillon had 27.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (124 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 receptions, 5 receiving yards). Dynasty Owners who drafted and held on to Dillon were unlikely to see this breakout coming. As a result, they probably didn’t have Dillon in their Starting lineup when he got the first significant game action of his NFL career.

WR: Michael Gallup (DAL) – 30.1 points

Two weeks ago, Gallup was the selection for someone who Dynasty Owners could start in their first round playoff or Loser’s Bracket tournament game (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/12/week-14-preview-2020/), even though he was well outside of the top producing WRs. He didn’t perform up to expectations that week with only 4.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hopefully, those of you with Gallup on your Dynasty Owner roster survived that week (or had a bye) so you had the opportunity to put him in your Starting lineup this week. That’s because he ended up the 2020 Dynasty Owner season by having his best week of the year with 30.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions, 121 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). Helping his Dynasty Owners win their league title (or the 1.13 rookie draft pick) should make it easier to justify drafting Gallup as highly as they likely did (ADP 72.3), but only if they put him in their Starting lineup this week.

TE: Irv Smith (MIN) – 23.3 points

Who was the top TE in Week 16? If you guessed Travis Kelce, normally you’d be correct especially since he had 22.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and 314.8 points for the season. However, the actual correct answer is Irv Smith who had 23.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs) for Minnesota back on Christmas Day. Thus, Smith capped an impressive Dynasty Owner playoff performance with a total of 46.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the three weeks of the playoffs, only 0.9 points behind the 47.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points that he scored for his Dynasty Owners in the regular season. Smith would have been a solid contributor to your Starting lineup in Week 16.

Honorable mention to Jimmy Graham who was barely in the top 12 TEs for the 2020 Dynasty Owner season, but may have been on more Benches than Starting lineups since he appeared to have been eclipsed by rookie Bears TE Cole Kmet in recent weeks. In the four games since the Bears Week 11 bye, Kmet had outscored Graham (27.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Kmet vs. 23.0 points for Graham). However, this week, Graham put up a vintage Jimmy Graham performance with 22.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 69 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs) to rank ahead of every TE except Irv Smith. Hopefully his Dynasty Owners went with the veteran TE in their Starting lineup if they have him on their roster (36% ownership).

K: Michael Badgley (LAC) – 14.0 points

For the second time in the 2020 season, Badgley bounced back after a poor performance. Back in Week 13, he had -4.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and bounced back in Week 14 with 11.0 points. In Week 15, he had only 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point, but bounced back again with 14.0 points in Week 16. He made all five of his kicks to score those 14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (FGs of 25, 37, 37 and 43 yards plus 1 PAT). The second 37 yard FG put the Chargers ahead of the Broncos with just 41 seconds left in their game and earned his Dynasty Owners a 3 point clutch bonus. A great bounce back performance from Badgley who hopefully was in the Starting lineup and not on the Bench for his Dynasty Owners.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one highly ranked player who probably was in your Starting lineup, but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few or no Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in the playoff or Loser’s bracket tournament finals.

QB: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – 16.5 points

There were plenty of QBs who had poor Week 16 performances. In fact, four of them (Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees and Jared Goff) had games in which they scored less than a dozen Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, since none of them were in Top 12 QBs prior to Week 16, they were not likely to be in many Starting lineups (barring a matchup advantage or not having a Top 12 QB). That’s not the case for Ryan Tannehill who was the #8 QB in Dynasty Owner coming into Week 16 and barely outperformed that quartet of low-scoring QBs with just 16.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (121 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 55 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 2 INTs, 1 fumble). Tannehill would have been better off being on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Dishonorable mention to Kyler Murray who barely had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Tannehill with just 16.8 points (247 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, 1 INT). This was the second worst game of the year for Murray and the second one in which he didn’t have a passing or rushing TD (Week 12 versus New England was the other game). This poor performance couldn’t have come at a worse time for his Dynasty Owners who likely had the #2 ranked QB coming into Week 16 in their Starting lineups. How were they to know that he’d play this poorly and should have been on the Bench?

RB: Josh Jacobs (LV) – 6.9 points

There were some bad performances by some top RBs in Week 16, but none of them were truly awful. Out of those bad performances, the worst was the 6.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy point effort (69 rushing yards) by Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders. It was the fourth game of the season in which Jacobs failed to reach double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but the most critical one for his Dynasty Owners who all likely had him in their Starting lineups since he was the #9 ranked RB heading into the week.

Dishonorable mention to Le’Veon Bell who was well outside of being one of the top RBs, but may have made his way into some Dynasty Owner Starting lineups because he was scheduled to be the lead RB for Kansas City in Week 16 with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire out. Instead of a game worthy of his high draft position (ADP 71.6), Dynasty Owners only got 4.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (30 rushing yards, 1 reception, 9 receiving yards). He wasn’t even the top RB on his own team as fellow RB Darrel Williams had 11.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (46 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 27 receiving yards). It’s been that kind of forgettable season for Bell and his Dynasty Owners. Hopefully you didn’t buy into the hype for Week 16 and left Bell on your Bench where he’s been most of the season.

WR: Corey Davis (TEN) – 0.0 points

Despite only playing in 12 games up until Week 16, Corey Davis was the #31 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner. Sure, he had put up a couple of bad performances (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 9 versus Chicago and 3.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 14 versus Jacksonville), but he was averaging 15.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and was just three weeks removed from a career best 35.2 point performance. As he had done for most of his career prior to 2020, Davis underperformed in Week 16. He put up a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and received only 2 targets in the snow against Green Bay. Hopefully Dynasty Owners sat Davis on the Bench or better yet, left him on the Practice Squad and didn’t have that performance dragging down their team.

TE: Robert Tonyan (GB) – 2.7 points

Undrafted in Dynasty Owner despite an annual salary of only $750,000, Robert Tonyan had been an extremely pleasant surprise for everyone who picked him up this year. He had a huge game back in Week 4 with 33.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and had kept it up for most of the year. He had a streak of five consecutive games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points coming into his Week 16 game versus Tennessee. Sadly, for his Dynasty Owners, Aaron Rodgers only had eyes for Davante Adams as Tonyan got a mere 2.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception, 17 receiving yards). That performance was better left on your Bench versus having in your Starting lineup.

K: Younghoe Koo (ATL) – -1.0 points

Koo was the #1 kicker in Dynasty Owner prior to Week 16 with a total of 133.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games (he missed the Falcons’ Week 4 game versus the Packers). He was averaging 10.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and had 8 games with 10.0 or more points and only two games with under 5.0 points. However, in Week 16, he missed his first FG attempt of 39 yards or less all season and the opportunity to tie the Falcons’ game against the Chiefs with 14 seconds left in the game. The miss left Koo with -1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 PATs plus the missed 39 yard FG attempt). Koo picked a terrible time to put up his worst performance since joining the Falcons last season and let down all of his Dynasty Owners who had come to rely on him as their Starting kicker. For one of the very few times this season, he should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench or Practice Squad.

Preview Article Recommendations

There’s no Week 17 in Dynasty Owner and as a result, there will be no preview article. As a result, we’ll have to recap my Week 16 Starter recommendations here and see how they worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Baker Mayfield – 7.8 points (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Zack Moss – 12.7 points (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Emmanuel Sanders – 13.5 points (Just Ok recommendation)
  • TE: Austin Hooper – 14.1 points (Good recommendation)

On the positive side, the recommendation of Austin Hooper was the first Good recommendation of the playoffs at any position. On the negative side, recommending that you stack him with QB Baker Mayfield was Bad since Mayfield didn’t have any of his usual starting WRs to throw to this week. In the middle were the Zack Moss and Emmanuel Sanders recommendations. Moss was just inside the top 24 RBs for the week, while Sanders was an acceptable, low end FLEX option. It’s been that type of year for the Starting lineup predictions, so only one Good, two Just Ok and one Bad recommendation qualifies as better than average.

Hopefully the Bench recommendations were better as they have been for most of the 2020 season. Here’s how my Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok).

  • QB: Russell Wilson – 24.1 points (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: James Conner – 17.5 points (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Terry McLaurin – Did Not Play
  • TE: Hunter Henry – Did Not Play

This is what happens when you make your selections early in the week in 2020, you get two guys who end up not playing (Terry McLaurin and Hunter Henry). Out of the two players who did suit up, one recommendation was Just Ok, and one was Bad. Russell Wilson was just outside of the Top 12 QBs for the week and a Just Ok recommendation while James Conner had 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and finished easily inside of the top 24 RBs, so that recommendation was Bad. This was just my second week with no Good Bench recommendations for the season.

Seth’s Quest for a Dynasty Owner Title Recap –

Dynasty Owner Don vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

Seth’s quest for a Dynasty Owner title ended happily ever after, just like Cinderella’s story did, with a 150-97.7 victory over Dynasty Owner Don.

CLE Piggy Pauls were huge underdogs coming into the Crossroads League finals against Dynasty Owner Don, especially since his Starting QB (Taysom Hill) wasn’t starting at QB for his NFL team and his backup was Daniel Jones, who hadn’t played in Week 15. In the end, it wasn’t even close as Stefon Diggs (41.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and the RB tandem of J.D. McKissic (23.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and David Montgomery (20.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) helped Seth to the title.

For Dynasty Owner Don, he got caught with Corey Davis and Salvon Ahmed (1.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) in his Starting lineup. His top scorer was QB Justin Herbert, but he only had 20.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and that wasn’t enough to stop Seth.

Congratulations to Seth on winning his League Championship!

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap –

The Swamp Donkeys vs. Russell Wilson’s War

In our only Championship match-up of two Top 25 Chase for the Ring teams, the Swamp Donkeys got revenge on Russell Wilson’s War for their close Week 12 loss and claimed the #11 spot in the final Chase standings with a 170.2 to 144.2 victory.

The Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams stack produced big for The Swamp Donkeys with a combined 76.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Russell Wilson’s War had three players on Sunday Night Football as well, but none of those performed up to their usual standards (Aaron Jones 12.8 points; Derrick Henry 9.8 points; A.J. Brown 8.3 points).

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard – Final Standings

With Russell Wilson’s War and all of the losers from the playoff finals removed, let’s take a look at the final Top 10 in the Chase for the Ring.

Barbee Kilgore is your Ring winner by a pretty convincing 65.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point margin over Quaranteed for Greatness. Those two teams had been at the top of the Standings since Week 9 with Barbee Kilgore on top since Week 11.

Both of them held their positions by winning their League Championship games, but not everyone in the Top 10 after Week 15 won their Championship. In the end, we lost four of those teams as just wanna win, All Might, Semper Fedelis and Russell Wilson’s War all lost their League Championship and fell out of the Chase standings completely.

Conclusions

Congratulations once again to Viktor and Barbee Kilgore on joining Eddie and New York’s Strongest as the only Ring winners in Dynasty Owner history!

Hopefully you won your League Championship and the Dynasty Dollars that go with that victory. Maybe you didn’t make the playoffs, but won the 1.13 rookie draft pick by taking the Loser’s Bracket tournament. Either way, congratulations are in order for everyone who took one of those prizes home in 2020.

For the rest of us, it’s time to start preparations for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. Keep an eye out for new articles and podcasts to help you win your League and maybe join Eddie and Viktor as the third Ring winner. There’s a fresh article coming on Wednesday from Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) to close out 2020. Starting in 2021, there will be articles every weekday except Tuesday from Matt, myself, Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) and our newest Dynasty Owner writer, Nate Christian (@NateNFL). Read all of them and follow the four of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

To hear all about Seth’s victory, watch or listen on Tuesday at 3 PM to the live weekly Dynasty Owner podcast. The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer also goes live at 1 PM on Wednesday as we look back at the 2020 Dynasty Owner season and start to look ahead to 2021. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen to both of them anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 572 subscribers on YouTube right now and we thank everyone who has subscribed already.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 16 Preview – Déjà vu All Over Again

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Yogi Berra was right about this. It feels like there’s plenty of repetition in Week 16 of the NFL as well as at the end of the Dynasty Owner season. The NFL has the Browns playing in New York for the second week in a row, just like San Francisco did earlier in the year and New England did recently with back-to-back games in Los Angeles. San Francisco plays its third consecutive game in Arizona with a road game against the Cardinals after two “home” games there the past two weeks.

In Dynasty Owner, we’re seeing some things again as well. We still have quite a few 7-6 and 8-5 teams who won last week and get to play for a League Championship this week. The Chase standings look familiar to anyone who’s been checking them regularly. Despite losing several teams from the Top 25 after last week’s games, we really have only one truly “new” team added (welcome to SchmajeffreyRun making their inaugural appearance in the Top 25).

For the Match-up of the Week, we’re going to do two of them again. Seth’s team (CLE Piggy Pauls) won last week so we need to follow through and see if he can go all the way and win a title. And just like last week, we’ll also preview the only game with two teams in the Top 25 of the Chase. Spoiler alert – this match-up may be familiar as they were featured as the Match-up of the Week earlier this season as well.

Finally, are we going to see a repeat of 2019? Eddie and New York’s Strongest won the regular season title and captured the Ring last year. This year, Barbee Kilgore sat at the top of the standings during the regular season and is still there now. They might not be undefeated, but can they hold to win the Ring?

This article will look the same as the other 15 weeks with a set of recommendations for your Starting lineup as well as some recommendations for players to leave on your Bench or Practice Squad. As usual, there will be our look at the overall projected score for both of our Match-up of the Week games. We will, as usual, peek at the Starters and Bench for all of these teams to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 23rd.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

It’s time to take our next to last look at how my Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Nick Mullens – 14.6 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Lynn Bowden – 10.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Keke Coutee – 13.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • TE: Cole Kmet – 3.2 (Bad recommendation)

The poor Starter recommendations continued in the playoff semi-finals as we had two Just Ok and two Bad recommendations. Neither Nick Mullens (14.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) nor Cole Kmet (3.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) did very well, and those recommendations were Bad. The selections of Lynn Bowden and Keke Coutee were Just Ok as both had more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and finished just inside the Top 30 at their respective positions. Let’s hope we don’t have a third straight playoff week without a Good recommendation. For the last time in 2020, here are the recommendations for players who should be in your Starting lineup to help you win in Week 16:

Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): For the past four weeks, Mayfield has been the best QB in Dynasty Owner. He’s averaged 33.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over that time to move up to be the #16 QB for the entire season. His average over that time is better than Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson and everyone else in the NFL. In that same time period, his opponent this week, the New York Jets, have allowed opposing QBs to average 30.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. All this lines up perfectly for his Dynasty Owners to put Mayfield in their Starting lineups for the playoff or Loser’s Bracket tournament finals and have him lead your team to victory.

Zack Moss (RB – BUF): Moss had the best game of his rookie season back in Week 8 against New England with 20.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (81 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). He also had 81 rushing yards last week versus Denver, which tied his mark set in Week 8 for the most rushing yards in a game. In the past two weeks, New England has let rookie RBs run all over them, allowing 171 rushing yards and 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Cam Akers of the Rams and 122 rushing yards plus a rushing TD for 23.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Salvon Ahmed of the Dolphins. They also gave up 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to Kenyan Drake of the Cardinals back in Week 12. Moss may split time with Devin Singletary and only be the #52 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, but he should be in your Starting lineup this week.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR – NO): The Saints have Drew Brees back at QB, but are now missing their best WR in Michael Thomas. That means someone needs to step up and be the guy Brees throws it to this week against Minnesota. The top candidate for the job is Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders has played in five games this season with Brees but without Thomas and averaged 13.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in those games. His scoring average in the seven games he played with Thomas in the lineup (including games without Brees at QB) is five points lower (8.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Brees looked rusty in his first game off Injured Reserve versus Kansas City in Week 15 but the expectation is that he’ll improve and play better against Minnesota. That bodes well for the #48 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner, so get him in your Starting lineup.

Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): Ten. That’s how many TEs have scored double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points when playing the Jets this season. Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki all did it, but the four of them are Top 12 TEs. There are six other TEs who did it and are well outside of the Top 12, such as Jordan Reed, Tyler Higbee, Adam Shaheen, Mo Allie-Cox, Tyler Kroft and Will Dissly. This week, Austin Hooper has the opportunity to exploit the Jets defense. His QB has been playing great recently and with the Jets’ struggles against the TE, it stands to reason that he will join the double-digit scorers club in Week 16. That’s good enough to make him a TE worth having in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Let’s look back at Week 15 to see how those Bench or Practice Squad recommendations did.

  • QB: Ryan Tannehill – 45.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – 9.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Tyler Lockett – 7.4 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Dalton Schultz – 9.4 (Just Ok recommendation)

Another week with one Good recommendation, although having two Just Ok recommendations was an improvement from last week when we had just one. We only had one Bad recommendation, but it was really Bad as Ryan Tannehill was the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week with 45.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Dalton Schultz were both held to just under 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but got close enough to make those Recommendations fall into the Just Ok category. Finally, on the bright side, recommending Tyler Lockett for the Bench was Good as he only had 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish outside the Top 50 WRs for the week. A couple of the picks in Week 16 are flashbacks to Week 13 when both of them were listed here and were actually Good recommendations, while the other two should have been on your Bench in recent weeks. There’s still an outside chance to have more Good than Bad recommendations this year, we just need at least 3 Good ones and no Bad ones. Here are the Bench picks for Week 16.  

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Russell Wilson. After really cooking at the beginning of the season, Wilson has cooled off. He hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in a game since back in Week 9 against Buffalo and has gotten two or more TDs just twice in the past six weeks. Since the Buffalo game, he has averaged just 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That stretch includes a 9.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy point outing against this week’s opponent, the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have the NFL’s best pass defense, even if they didn’t show it last week against the Jets. Russell may get cooking again for the Seahawks, but it’s probably not going to happen in Week 16, so leave him on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

James Conner (RB – PIT): Conner is expected to return to the Steelers’ lineup for their Week 16 game against the Indianapolis Colts, but don’t automatically return him to your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup for several reasons. First, the Steelers have been pretty bad the past three weeks. Second, Benny Snell played pretty well against the Bengals last week with 19.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and according to reports, may have earned additional playing time. Third, Conner’s best games were all in the first half when he averaged 16.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In the four games he has played in the second half, it’s down to just 6.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Finally, if you flashback to Week 14, before he missed last week with an injury, he had his worst game of the season and only scored 0.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. While he’s technically outside of the Top 24 RBs at #26, he is probably a RB2 or FLEX option for most of his Dynasty Owners still fighting for a title or the 1.13 draft pick. Sit him on your Dynasty Owner Bench in his return.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): With a potentially messy situation at QB for the Football Team this week, it’s best to avoid having McLaurin in your Starting lineup if you can afford to do so. Last week’s starter Dwayne Haskins might get suspended by the team for a violation of team rules. Alex Smith missed last week’s game with a leg injury and may not be healthy enough to return and play this week. That means the Football Team’s starting QB could be either Taylor Heinicke who signed with the team just two weeks ago or rookie Steven Montez who has not played in a NFL game yet. It’ll be difficult for McLaurin to overcome his QB situation this week, so leave him on your Bench.

Hunter Henry (TE – LAC): As the TE with the highest salary in Dynasty Owner ($10.607 million), Henry has been a good solid piece of his Dynasty Owners’ Starting lineups for most of the season. He’s only had one truly bad game (1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus New England in Week 13), but no great games. His best performance was last week’s 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy point game against Las Vegas. Will he repeat against another division opponent in Denver this week? Probably not as his recent history against the Broncos isn’t great (7.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 8 and 3.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 13 last year). Plus, the Broncos are pretty good at defending TEs. They did a good job holding both Darren Waller and Travis Kelce to under 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in games earlier this season and should be able to do the same to Henry, so Bench him this week.

Seth’s Quest for a Dynasty Owner Title Matchup –

Dynasty Owner Don vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

We continue with Seth’s quest for a Dynasty Owner title as he and his beloved CLE Piggy Pauls were able to overcome the projections to defeat Tim and Real Timo’s Titans in the Crossroads League semi-finals last week. Now, he has to face another member of the Dynasty Owner leadership in Dynasty Owner Don in the finals. Will Seth be the underdog for the third time in these playoffs? Let’s look and see:

Yes indeed! Despite a better regular season record, the CLE Piggy Pauls are an underdog. Just like they have been throughout the playoffs. Seth was the #4 seed in the playoffs and Dynasty Owner Don had an 8-5 regular season record so he must have been the #6 seed and toppled two higher seeds already to make it this far.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the CLE Piggy Pauls are projected to lose by a 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (134.4 to 97.4). That’s more than his deficit in each of the last two rounds of the playoffs. Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see who’s in there now and if there’s any way Seth can pull off a third consecutive upset victory.

While Dynasty Owner Don has the overall advantage in the Starting lineups, it’s really because of his QB and kicker. His advantage in those two positions is 36.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and he’s projected to win by 37.0. This is where the injury to Seth’s Starting QB (Joe Burrow) really hurts. Seth was able to overcome having Taysom Hill as his Starting QB last week so maybe he can do it again. Let’s check and see who both teams have on the Bench and if Seth has anyone who can make up the gap?

Dynasty Owner Don has the advantage with Bench scoring as well and once again, that advantage comes almost entirely from the QB position. Lamar Jackson from Dynasty Owner Don’s team is projected to score twice as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points as Daniel Jones from the CLE Piggy Pauls (26.2 to 13.1).

Overall, it’s looking like a tough one for Seth and the CLE Piggy Pauls. However, they have overcome the odds in each of the past two weeks, so there’s hope that they can do it again.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week #2 –

The Swamp Donkeys vs. Russell Wilson’s War

If our second Match-up of the Week looks familiar, it’s because they were featured back in Week 12. Back then, both of them were in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring standings. It’s true now as well and in fact, this is the only Championship game this week featuring two teams in the Chase (just like last week’s Match-up between Bayside Tigers and Jet Jones), as Russell Wilson’s War are #10 while The Swamp Donkeys are #14. Russell Wilson’s War won a close game last time, but who’s going to prevail with a League Championship and shot at the Ring on the line? Let’s look and see:

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, Russell Wilson’s War should win by a final score of 162.4-154.5. Both teams are going to need more points, plus a few losses by teams in front of them in the Chase to win the Ring. Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see which team has the best Starting lineup.

It’s close, but Russell Wilson’s War has the Starting lineup advantage by 7.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Their lead is entirely from the 8.0 point advantage that the projections give their kicker (Younghoe Koo) over The Swamp Donkey’s kicker (Matt Gay). Russell Wilson’s War will jump out to the lead on Saturday as they have three players who play then, while all of The Swamp Donkeys’ current Starting lineup are in action on Sunday. Russell Wilson’s War has their QB (Josh Allen) playing on Monday night, so both teams might be watching that game intently to see if they win or not. It might also come down to Bench scoring, so let’s check out the Benches for both teams.

The Bench scoring will be over by Sunday night as neither team has anyone on their current Bench from either the Bills or Patriots. The Bench scoring is almost as tight as it can be with Russell Wilson’s War having a 0.7 point advantage (74.8 to 74.1). The Swamp Donkeys could add three points to their projected Starting lineup by inserting Matt Prater in at kicker over Matt Gay, but neither player is projected to score many points.

Russell Wilson’s War is looking like they will repeat their close victory from Week 12 and win their League Title. The Swamp Donkeys need some help to pull the upset and take this re-match, but the #1 team after the first week can’t be counted out.

Conclusion

Thank you to everyone who made the 2020 season of Dynasty Owner possible. It’s been a lot of fun previewing and recapping the season for all of my fellow Dynasty Owners once again.

Once the playoffs are over, the Free Agent freeze is lifted, and a new season of Dynasty Owner starts. There will be several articles per week on a wide range of subjects from the writing team of myself, Jay Poundsee  (@jaypoundsnfl) and Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk). Please check them out and follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Takeaways from Each Team (Part 1)

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

As we inch ever closer to the end of the fantasy season, this is a good week to look back at the season as a whole. Over the next two weeks, I’m going to cycle through every NFL team (similar to what I did in my Don’t Tilt article) and pick out one player that has strayed from their initial preseason ranks. No prediction is perfect, but I feel like we have a good idea of who most NFL players are and what we can continue to expect from them. This is especially true for veteran players.

Kyler Murray is the clear, obvious choice to talk about here. Kyler was drafted this year as a Top 10 overall option as his ADP was 6.1. It’s difficult to say if he has fully met those expectations as he is currently the QB4 on the season. Owners were drawn to Murray not only for his 2020 season outlook, but also because of his attractive salary. Murray will have two years remaining on his contract after this season, and he will make $8,789,661 per year. That contract is a steal for a quarterback, and I look forward to Kyler being a top three quarterback coming into 2021.

There is a lot to be disappointed about when it comes to the Falcons’ season. First and foremost is their record…4-10 is amazingly disappointing for the talent that Atlanta has, but no player this season has been more confusing to understand than Todd Gurley. Gurley ($6,000,000) is on a single year deal, and it’s very likely he will be “one and done” with the Falcons. Gurley is RB23 on the season which doesn’t sound terrible until you look at how he arrived at this spot. Over the first seven games of the season, he averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game. Over the last six games Gurley has averaged 6.6 fantasy points per game. It seems (in my amateur opinion) that Gurley is getting run down over the second half of the season and that he has been unable to keep up his high touchdown percentage that he touted through the first nine weeks. Gurley will likely head into free agency next year with a great amount of uncertainty involved.

The top two running backs for the Bills would be considered a disappointment by most fans. Their “down” seasons aren’t necessarily indicative of how they have played this year. Both running backs are receiving far less opportunity than I expected them to get. Buffalo has transformed into a pass first offense, and it has hurt the ceilings for both backs. Singletary ($974,500) and Moss ($1,153,079) are RB27 and RB52 on the season. They are both, actually, still a value given their cheap contracts, but they haven’t been reliable enough to crack into most Owner’s starting lineups.

Like Gurley, J.K. Dobbins has had a “Jekyll and Hyde” type of season. Fortunately for Owners and the Ravens, Dobbins is becoming more efficient and is receiving more volume as the season ages. Through the first six weeks, Dobbins averaged only six touches per game as Ingram and Edwards took the majority of the touches. Well, over the past seven games that Dobbins has played, he has averaged 13.1 touches and 11.6 fantasy points per game. He will take over as the lead back in Baltimore next year, and he will hold that job for quite a while.

I’m willing to bet that some of you aren’t able to tell me which Panthers’ receiver has the most fantasy points this season. So, who do you think it is?  You have a one in three chance…I honestly didn’t know until I looked it up, but I would have guessed wrong. I would have said D.J. Moore. The right answer is Robby Anderson. They rank like this…

  1. Anderson ($10,000,000) [199]
  2. Moore ($2,792,829) [188]
  3. Samuel ($1,613,421) [171]

They are all very close to each other in terms of fantasy points and yearly standings. Carolina has distributed the targets very evenly throughout the season, and it is nearly impossible to predict who the top receiver will be each week. Moore and Samuel are obviously values, but Anderson has disappointed given his above average salary.

Oh boy, where do we go from here. The Bengals were a mess this season (with some bright spots that no one could have predicted) but overall, it wasn’t great. The biggest question I have for the Bengals is “what on earth are we going to do with Joe Mixon?”  Mixon was set to be a steal of a pick, at least for this season. His $1,362,544 salary had the potential to be a league winning value. Well, Mixon has been sidelined since Week 7 with a lingering foot issue that has frustrated any Owner that was unfortunate enough to draft him. I’m obviously not a doctor, but I find it hard to believe that Mixon will make his way back to the field for your Week 16 championship matchup. The question begs to be asked then, what do I do with him next year?  Assuming he comes into the 2021 season fully healthy, I think Mixon will be 100 percent owned in Dynasty Owner. The problem will be if his current owners have allocated enough cap room to afford him. There is no doubt that he will be dropped in a small percentage of leagues, and if he is, I would be looking to pick him up.

Nick Chubb is the best pure runner in the NFL. I’ve said that for a couple of years now. Derrick Henry is a close second, but Chubb is one of the most special backs I’ve seen. We all know that Chubb essentially missed six games this season. Despite those missed games, he is still RB13 on the season. He will carry a less than two-million-dollar salary into 2021, and he looks to be a Top 3 running back in terms of value.

Allen Robinson has had an amazingly consistent season. He has fallen below 10 fantasy points just once in 2020. He will end the season as a Top 10 wide receiver. I, however, am more interested in what will happen with Robinson this offseason. He is in the final year of his $14 million per year deal. Robinson will, no doubt, command more money in his next contract. The question is…where he will be playing. I don’t have a good answer for that. I can speculate on where I would want him to land, for his sake, but it would just be speculation. Regardless, if I owned Robinson, I would plan on making at least 5 million dollars in cap room if you plan on retaining his contract.

Dallas has, for obvious reasons, had a disappointing season. They do have an abundance of talent on their roster though. While the Dallas receivers haven’t been a complete disaster, they did lose a great deal of fantasy potential when Dak Prescott suffered a season ending injury in Week 5. Amari Cooper is the one receiver whose production did not drop off much. He is currently WR13 on the season with 15 fantasy points per game. Amari does not have anywhere close to the upside that he had when Prescott was leading the team, but I predict Dak will be back in Dallas next season. Although his price tag is very expensive ($20,000,000 per year), Cooper will look to be a Top 10 wide receiver and should be on a lot of championship contending teams if they can afford to hold him.

Quick, tell me which Broncos’ receiver has the most fantasy points this season…

Tim Patrick ($750,000) is the disappointing answer. Patrick currently has 148 fantasy points for an average of 12.3 fantasy points per game that he has played in. 148 points is 31 more than Jerry Jeudy’s 117. There’s no doubt that Drew Lock’s inconsistent season is stunting the growth and potential of all the weapons for Denver. It remains to be seen if Lock is the long-term quarterback, but if he is, it’s hard to rank any Broncos’ skill players as high-end options going into 2021.

D’Andre Swift has shot up my Dynasty Owner rankings and for good reason. Coming into the season, I had Swift as my fifth ranked rookie running back. Given his efficiency throughout the season and his increased usage since Week 9, he has jumped to my second ranked rookie running back, and he will probably remain there over the offseason. As this rookie running back class moves into their sophomore year in 2021, I see no reason why Swift couldn’t and shouldn’t be the lead back for Detroit. Adrian Peterson is on a single year deal with Detroit that will expire at the end of the season. AP has expressed interest in playing football until he’s 40 years old. I don’t doubt that’s possible, but I don’t see it being with the Lions. With less competition for touches, I predict Swift will lead the backfield with at least a 65/35 split with Kerryon Johnson.

I faded Aaron Jones all preseason, and I had no interest in drafting him in any league, especially Dynasty Owner. My concern wasn’t so much that I predicted a decline in fantasy production (which did happen), but it was concern over his impending contract extension. He is in the final year of a 4-year contract worth $2,601,937 total. This equates to roughly $650,000 per year. He was obviously a value for 2020, and any owner that drafted Jones has to be happy with his year. His preseason ADP actually ended up being a value as well. On average he was drafted at 20.1 which is terrific value for a running back that is currently RB5 on the season. Congratulations if you drafted him and if he has provided you a successful season. Let’s keep our attention on him in the offseason as we find out where he signs and how much his salary will be worth.

Deshaun Watson is a very similar case to Aaron Jones.

  • Both players were drafted within the first two rounds, on average.
  • Both players are elite options at their respective positions.
  • Both players will have signed new contracts by the time the 2021 season starts.
  • Both players will be amnestied in some percentage of Dynasty Owner leagues.

While that last statement will end up being true, I don’t expect Jones to be let go in too many leagues as his salary cap hit will be roughly one third of Watson’s. Watson is set to make $39,000,000 per year starting in 2021. This will make it difficult for current Watson owners to hold him. Dynasty Owner has already announced that the salary cap will be increasing for 2021 so that should help, but it will still make for some very difficult decisions.

This is what DO is all about though right?  Attempting to simulate the decisions that real NFL owners and GMs make.

Jonathan Taylor is quickly becoming one of my favorite NFL players. Like Swift, Taylor has flown up my rankings. Taylor is, quietly, the RB9 on the season. Following the draft, he was poised to be one of the top three rookie running backs. The absence of a very serviceable back, Marlon Mack, has allowed Taylor to receive more opportunities than he may have with Mack on the active roster. Taylor’s usage was disappointing for the first two months of the season, but he has made up for that recently with 21 touches per game in his last four. In those four games, he has 90 fantasy points. Taylor is peaking at the right time, and over the next three seasons he will more than pay for his salary cap hit ($1,957,287 per year).

Pat Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. “Well, duh. Tell us something we don’t know.”  How about this one…Pat Mahomes is the QB1 on the season. “Okay, that’s obvious as well.”  One more…Pat Mahomes is the greatest value of any player in Dynasty Owner. This may also seem like a given, but there were plenty of contenders for “best value.”  A few others that come to mind are:

  • Josh Allen
  • Deshaun Watson
  • Dalvin Cook
  • Alvin Kamara
  • James Robinson
  • D.K. Metcalf
  • Calvin Ridley

Obviously, in order to become a top value player you have to have a cheap salary combined with top level fantasy production. Mahomes has that this year. He only costs a little over $4,000,000 and has 30 more points than the next closest quarterback. The only two players that could come close to Mahomes’ value are James Robinson and Travis Kelce (if he cost less than $5,000,000.)  Next year is a different story though…

If you’ve read even a few of my articles, you know that I like to talk about Justin Herbert. Herbert is one of the few bright spots for the Chargers this year. He is QB9 and will finish inside the top ten at the end of the season. There really isn’t much else to say here. Herbert is going to be drafted in the first couple of rounds for startup drafts next year, and he will be the subject of many trade proposals. I’m just glad I was able to grab him in one of my Dynasty Owner leagues.

As always, thank you all for reading, supporting and using Dynasty Owner. I hope everyone is safe and has a great holiday season. Look for the second part of this article to drop next week. Take care.

TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 15 Recap: Blowouts and Upsets

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Not every NFL or Dynasty Owner game this week nicely fits into the weekly theme of blowouts and upsets, but just enough of them do to warrant some attention. There were three blowouts and two upsets in the NFL in Week 15 and all of the blowouts and upsets involved teams that will likely be in the NFL playoffs. The Jets and the Bengals both came out swinging and upset likely (Rams) and guaranteed (Steelers) playoff teams. The Bills, Titans and Ravens all blew out their opponents to guarantee a division title and playoff berth (Bills), solidify their playoff odds (Titans) or keep alive their playoff hopes (Ravens). 

For the top 10 teams in the Chase for the Ring from last week, most of their matchups in the playoff semifinals were either blowouts or upsets as well. Seven of last week’s Top 10 teams won with an average margin of victory of 32.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. There was only one close game among those winners. The other three Top 10 teams lost with two close losses. One game was decided by 2.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and another by 6.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The third team was featured in our Match-up of the Week as they were facing another team in the Top 25 and lost by 34.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

The Dynasty Owner Player of the Week and Value Player of the Week both led their teams to blowout victories in Week 15. Find out who they are in this playoff semi-finals edition of the Dynasty Owner weekly recap. In addition to naming both of them, we’ll highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. 

More importantly, we’ll find out if Seth continued his quest for the Crossroads League title or if he was stopped by Dynasty Owner CEO Tim. We will also find out which Top 25 team won the Match-up of the Week and advanced in the Chase for the Ring. Finally, we’ll also look at the updated Chase for the Ring standings featuring only teams playing in Week 16 for their League Championship and see which Chase teams lost and dropped out of the Top 10.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 22nd.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our second 2020 playoff Dynasty Owner Player of the Week is: Ryan Tannehill

Two weeks into the Dynasty Owner playoffs and it’s been two Dynasty Owner Player of the Week winners from the Tennessee Titans. Admittedly, those blowout victories by Tennessee were against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions, but they still count. Last week, our Player of the Week was RB Derrick Henry, while this week it’s QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill had his best performance of the 2020 season with 45.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (273 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 21 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). Starting Tannehill likely led his Dynasty Owners to win either their playoff matchup or Loser’s Bracket tournament game and stay alive for a chance at a League championship or the 1.13 draft pick in the 2021 rookie draft. It wasn’t a blowout for this honor as Tannehill edged out a trio of other QBs (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray) who all had more than 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week.

  • Week 15 Points: 45.7
  • 2020 Salary: $29,500,000
  • Cost per Point: $645,514

Congratulations Ryan on winning your first career Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor! 

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The second 2020 playoff Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week is: Zach Pascal

Here’s something to remember for next season, Zach Pascal plays very well in the regular season at home against the Houston Texans. In Week 15, he had a season best 27.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy point game (5 receptions, 79 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). He caught a 5 yard TD pass to win the game with 1:47 left to get the 3 point clutch scoring bonus. Last season, he had another huge game in Week 7 against them, scoring 30.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to win the Value Player of the Week honor. Even back in 2018, before Dynasty Owner started, he had what would have been 18.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a Week 4 home game versus Houston. Last year, he only had a $525,000 annual salary. He got a raise up to $660,000 for this season, but that’s still low enough to provide the most value for his Dynasty Owners this week.

  • Week 15 Points: 27.9
  • 2020 Salary: $660,000
  • Cost per Point: $23,656

Congratulations Zach on your first Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor of the season and second overall.

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 15. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Calvin Ridley or Darren Waller because barring injury or bye week, both of them should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might normally be on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 15 when they should have been.

QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI) – 45.2 points

Hurts just missed out on being Dynasty Owner Player of the Week as he finished 0.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind Ryan Tannehill. The rookie QB played pretty well in his first game as the Eagles starter last week with 23.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which ranked him in the middle of the QB pack. He did nearly as much with his legs running the ball in his first NFL start as he did with his arm passing. This led some fantasy analysts to consider starting Hurts against Arizona. Those who listened and started him hit the jackpot as Hurts put up 45.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (338 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 63 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 3 fumbles). If he hadn’t fumbled three times, he would have been the Player of the Week in only his second career start. Hopefully his Dynasty Owners had Hurts in their Starting lineup this week and not riding the Bench.

RB: Tony Pollard (DAL) – 31.7 points

When Ezekiel Elliott was ruled inactive prior to the Cowboys’ game against the San Francisco 49ers, it opened up an opportunity for Tony Pollard to show what he could do as the top RB for Dallas. And he definitely showed off with 31.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (69 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 6 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 20 return yards). For perspective, Elliott hadn’t scored that many points in a single game in 2020. Since Elliott makes $15 million annually compared to just under $800,000 for Pollard, it’s going to lead to speculation about Pollard taking over for Elliott in Dallas. That remains to be seen, but this was the week to get Pollard into your Starting lineup if you had been holding him on your Bench or Practice Squad all season, waiting for just this opportunity.

WR: Kendrick Bourne (SF) – 18.6 points

With Zach Pascal earning Value Player of the Week honors, we had to dip down pretty far on the WR scoring charts this week to find someone who wasn’t likely in his Dynasty Owners’ Starting lineup. As the #60 WR in Dynasty Owner and only owned in 52% of leagues, Bourne was unlikely to be appearing in too many Starting lineups this week. And he really wasn’t worthy of it until he scored at the very end of the 49ers’ 41-33 loss to the Cowboys. Bourne caught a 49-yard TD pass from C.J. Beathard at the end of the game, a play that garnered him 11.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to give him 18.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) on the day. That was worth a spot as the usual Bench or Practice Squad WR who Dynasty Owners should have put in their Starting lineup this week.

TE: Tyler Higbee (LAR) – 16.7 points

Outside of a 3 TD, 28.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy point effort back in Week 2, Tyler Higbee hadn’t done a whole lot to justify his $7.25 million annual salary or draft ADP of 139.8. Taking out that one game, Higbee was only averaging 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He had even been outscored in five games this season by fellow Rams TE Gerald Everett. Despite his early draft position, many Dynasty Owners had probably given up on Higbee producing another Top 10 TE performance and put him on their Bench. That would have been a mistake as they would have missed out on this week’s performance.

K: Cairo Santos (CHI) – 17.0 points

Prior to Week 15, Santos was the #17 kicker in Dynasty Owner. He had only scored double-digits in three games during the 2020 season and was averaging just 6.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That was despite having only missed three kicks all season (21 out of 23 on FG attempts and 27 out of 28 on PAT attempts). He was perfect on FG attempts of 39 yards or less (14 for 14), but had only attempted nine kicks of 40 yards or longer. Santos got just his second opportunity to attempt more than one 40+ yard FG in a single game in Week 15 and took advantage. He made four FGs in total (35, 42, 42 and 48 yards) plus 3 PATs to score 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He moved up to the #9 kicker in Dynasty Owner now and should have been in the Starting lineup in Week 15 to help his Dynasty Owners in their playoff games.

Honorable mention to Nick Folk, another kicker who rarely misses (only four missed kicks all season – 2 FGs and 2 PATs), but was only one spot above Santos in the Dynasty Owner kicker rankings at #16 before Week 15. The Patriots offense stalled four times in Dolphins’ territory this week and Folk made all four FG attempts. He scored 14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points as he made one FG of 39 yards or less (36 yards) plus three of 40 yards or more (42 yards and two from 45 yards). This was just his third game with over 10.0 points for the season and one in which he should have been in your Starting lineup.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one highly ranked player who probably was in your Starting lineup, but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few or no Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in the playoff or Loser’s bracket tournament semi-finals.

QB: Russell Wilson (SEA) – 14.2 points

As a result, Russell Wilson gets the dishonor of being the QB who you probably had in your Starting lineup but shouldn’t have. It’s really been a tale of two seasons for him as the Russell Wilson of the second half of the 2020 season is not the same player as the Russell Wilson of the first half of the season. He averaged 38.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the first eight games of the season. Second half Russell Wilson was only averaging 20.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points through five games before producing even less than that in Week 15 when he had just 14.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (121 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 52 rushing yards, 1 INT). Dynasty Owners would never have sat first half Russell Wilson on the Bench, but should have put second half Russell Wilson there in Week 15.

Dishonorable mention to Ben Roethlisberger who had a much worse game on Monday Night in the Steelers’ 27-17 upset loss to the Bengals than Wilson did. Despite being ranked as a Top 12 QB, not too many Dynasty Owners could have Started Roethlisberger since he and his $34 million salary are only rostered in 15% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Those who do have and started him only got 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (170 passing yards, 1 passing TD, -1 rushing yards, 1 INT, 2 fumbles – 1 lost). With the Steelers reeling at the end of the season, Roethlisberger was better left on your Bench in Week 15.

RB: Wayne Gallman (NYG) – 2.9 points

By scoring only 2.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (29 rushing yards) in Week 15, Gallman broke a streak of seven consecutive games with double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He averaged 15.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in those games and had made himself a regular in Dynasty Owner Starting lineups in either the RB2 or FLEX spot. That all came crashing down for Gallman in the Giants’ 20-6 loss to Cleveland and hopefully his Dynasty Owners left him on their Bench or Practice Squad this week.

WR: Amari Cooper (DAL) – 2.3 points

It’s kind of surprising to see Amari Cooper in this spot again. Cowboys QB Andy Dalton threw for 209 yards and 2 TDs, but Cooper only managed to catch two passes for 10 receiving yards. He also had one rushing attempt for negative 7 yards to leave him with 2.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the week. Since his last appearance here back in Week 8, Cooper was averaging 16.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That’s in the past and he should have been on your Bench this week.

Honorable mention to Keenan Allen who played through injuries on Thursday night against the Raiders. He probably shouldn’t have done that, or least his Dynasty Owners, shouldn’t have started him as he only produced 2.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception, 17 receiving yards, -1 rushing yards). Allen should have not left the Bench and that’s where Dynasty Owners should have kept him.

TE: T.J. Hockenson (DET) – 0.8 points

Hockenson came into Week 15 as one of the most consistent players in Dynasty Owner. He was averaging 12.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and had scored over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in ten games with 9.7 and 9.3 points in two other games. He didn’t have any great games as he hadn’t reached 20.0 points in a single game, but he had only put up one bad game with 3.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points versus Washington in Week 10. With the news that Matthew Stafford would start at QB for Detroit, Dynasty Owners with Hockenson likely figured they would get their double digit points from their TE and put him in their Starting lineup. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen for them as Hockenson only scored 0.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions, 18 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost). For only the second time this season, Hockenson was best left on your Bench.

K: Jason Sanders (MIA) – 0.0 points

Sanders was the top ranked kicker in Dynasty Owner going into Week 15. Sanders and Younghoe Koo of Atlanta were the only kickers averaging 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game during the Dynasty Owner regular season and Sanders had 7.0 points last week in the first round of the playoffs or Loser’s bracket tournament for his Dynasty Owners. That game was one of only five in which he scored less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, until this week when he put up a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Sanders missed a 52 yard FG at the end of the first half, but made both of his PAT attempts in the second half to avoid having negative points. For one of the few times this season, Sanders should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench or Practice Squad.

Seth’s Quest for a Dynasty Owner Title Recap –

Real Timo’s Titans vs. CLE Piggy Pauls 

Seth’s quest for a Dynasty Owner title took a major hit when the Saints announced that Drew Brees would once again be the team’s Starting QB, leaving Seth’s only healthy QB Taysom Hill as the backup in New Orleans. Seth’s other QBs are an injured Daniel Jones who wasn’t scheduled to play in Week 16 and Joe Burrow who is out for the rest of the 2020 season. 

In an upset on par with the Jets’ win in Super Bowl III over the Colts, the CLE Piggy Pauls defeated Real Timo’s Titans by a 136.1-124.6 score to reach the Crossroads League finals. Tim was favored by a whopping 53.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the final score projections, but somehow the CLE Piggy Pauls pulled out the victory. The early good start by Austin Ekeler, Noah Fant and Stefon Diggs in the Thursday and Saturday games for Seth was too much for Tim to overcome on Sunday. The early injury to Tyler Boyd on Monday Night Football sealed Tim’s fate as Seth took the victory and berth in the Crossroads League final.

Now, Seth has to battle Uncle Don in the Crossroads league finals. Can he overcome the odds and take down another member of the Dynasty Owner leadership? We’ll preview that game in the Week 16 preview article along with taking a look at some other games involving teams at the top of the Chase for the Ring.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap –

Bayside Tigers vs. Jet Jones

In our only match-up of two Top 25 Chase for the Ring teams, the higher seeded #5 Bayside Tigers were a slight underdog coming into their playoff semi-final matchup with the red hot #18 seed in Jet Jones. Which team survived this Top 25 Chase for the Ring elimination game? Let’s find out:

It was Jet Jones winning pretty convincingly by a 34.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (179.6 to 145.3). Jet Jones was able to overcome below average performances by Tyler Lockett and Davante Adams with solid ones from the rest of his Starting lineup (Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Stefon Diggs, Darren Waller, Younghoe Koo) to take the victory. T.J. Hockenson’s poor performance, along with below average games from Aaron Rodgers, Austin Ekeler and DK Metcalf contributed to the upset loss for Bayside Tigers. Bayside Tigers won the Bench scoring battle as they had four 20.0+ point scorers (Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs and Antonio Brown) on their Bench.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

With Bayside Tigers, and all of the playoff semi-finals losers out of the picture, let’s take a look at the updated Top 10 in the Chase for the Ring.

In addition to the Bayside Tigers, two other Top 10 teams were upset in the playoff semi-finals. Both Tip Drill (#8 in last week’s Standings) and The Tough Guys (#9 in last week’s Standings) are no longer eligible for the Ring as they were upset by a pair of heavy underdogs. Tip Drill lost by 6.0 points to Melloncolly after being favored by 40.3 points. The Tough Guys lost by just 2.6 points to Dream Chasers who they were favored to defeat by 34.0 points. Both Melloncolly and Dream Chasers had 7-6 records in the regular season but advance to their League finals, while Tip Drill and The Tough Guys lament what could have been.

On the other hand, we also had plenty of blowouts with four current Top 10 teams (Quaranteed for Greatness, Mad Minshew’s Moustache, Semper Fedelis and Hyenas) all winning their semi-finals matchups by more than 50.0 points. Barbee Kilgore won their semi-final game and scored enough points to retain the top spot in the standings by 46.5 points. The Ring is theirs to win, provided they can win their League title in Week 16.

Conclusions

There were a few upsets this week along with some playoff semi-finals blowouts among teams in the Chase for the Ring. We are now down to the final two teams in each League to battle it out for the League title.  All of the playoffs winners can call themselves League Champion, but only one will be the ultimate winner and gets the Ring.

We have just one more regular Tuesday recap for Week 16 coming next week as well as the final preview article on tap. Please read the Week 16 preview article to see how my Week 15 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in the playoffs and loser’s bracket tournament finals. Don’t forget to read upcoming articles from both Jay Poundsee  (@jaypoundsnfl) and Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) as well as follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

Listen on Tuesday at 3 PM to the live Dynasty Owner podcast to hear all about Seth’s victory and his quest for the Crossroads League title. The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer also goes live at 1 PM on Wednesday. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen to both of them anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 572 subscribers on YouTube right now and we thank everyone who has subscribed already. All of this great content is available to help you win your League Championship as well as the Chase for the Ring.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 15 Preview – Staying Alive

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Week 14 saw a few NFL teams keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Other teams kept winning to solidify their place in the playoffs and hopes to stay alive once the NFL playoffs start. The Baltimore Ravens victory over the Cleveland Browns on Monday night was their second straight victory and has them in a tie for the final playoff bid in the AFC. In the NFC, Arizona has a one-game lead for the seventh and final playoff seed after their victory over the New York Giants. The Washington Football Team is currently on a four-game winning streak which makes them the leader in the NFC East at 6-7, one game ahead of the Giants. Even the Denver Broncos kept their extremely slim playoff hopes alive by winning against the Carolina Panthers last week. They will need to keep winning to stay alive in the NFL playoff race, but it’s not over yet for them.

Last week was the first round of the Dynasty Owner playoffs and while the #1 and #2 seeds had byes in the playoffs (and the #7 and #8 seeds had Loser’s Bracket byes), the rest of the teams had to win to stay alive. This includes #6 seeds who just made it to the playoffs with 7-6 records (or worse). It also includes those #11 and #12 seeds who finished at the bottom of their Leagues in the regular season, but still have a chance at winning the Loser’s Bracket tournament and earning the 1.13 pick in their Dynasty Owner rookie draft. In both of my leagues, the #11 and #12 seeds stayed alive for a chance at that pick by winning their first round Loser’s Bracket tournament game.

It’s similar at the top as well. In looking at all of the matchups for the teams in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring, there were a dozen of those teams’ opponents with 7-6 records in the regular season, meaning that they were likely either the #5 or #6 seed in the playoffs. Despite barely making the playoffs, those teams stayed alive in their attempt to win a League title by knocking off a higher ranked team in the first round of the playoffs. Now, they have the chance to knock off one of the top teams in Dynasty Owner.

One guy who has stayed alive for the past couple of weeks is our good friend and friendly Dynasty Owner podcast host Seth. His team (CLE Piggy Pauls) haven’t lost since Week 9 when they were 5-4 and in danger of not making the playoffs. We’ll look at his match-up in the Crossroads League semi-finals as well as an epic clash between two teams in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring. That’s right, in order to stay alive in their quest for their League Championship and a chance at the Ring, they need to beat another Chase contender in the semi-finals. We’ll look at both of these playoff games, check out the overall projected score and then the Starters and Bench to see how each team’s current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 18th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my first-round playoff (Week 14) Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Taysom Hill – 23.8 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: Myles Gaskin – Did Not Play
  • WR: Michael Gallup – 4.3 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Noah Fant – 0.0 (Bad recommendation)

Not a great way to start the playoffs with one Just Ok recommendation and two Bad ones plus a Did Not Play for Myles Gaskin. While Taysom Hill was Just Ok since he finished as the #11 QB in Dynasty Owner for Week 14, he did outscore nine out of the 12 QBs in the Top 12 including Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. On the Bad side, we had Michael Gallup who was targeted six times for Dallas, but only had 4.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Recommending Noah Fant was also bad as he had a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points), but that was because he got sick early on in the game and never returned to play. We still get to make selections this week despite the poor week. It’s the playoffs so these choices continue to be difficult, but regardless, let’s go with these guys as players who should be in your Starting lineup in Week 15:

Nick Mullens (QB – SF): This isn’t the easiest of week to find a QB who is usually a Bench option but should be a Starter. Even though Taysom Hill outscored a bunch of higher ranked QBs last week, all of those players had between 20.0 and 24.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so the differences were marginal. This week, Nick Mullens is the recommendation, but the only way Dynasty Owners should be using him is if you are desperate. Maybe Joe Burrow was your franchise QB and he’s done for the year, or Matthew Stafford is your usual starter, but he might not play, or you had Carson Wentz and now he’s a backup in Philadelphia. Maybe you drafted Jimmy Garoppolo and stashed Mullens and his $750,000 contract deep on your Practice Squad for just this occasion. Mullens is averaging only 16.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2020 but has thrown for 200 yards or more in every game and averages 268 passing yards per game. Turnovers are the issue with Mullens as he has thrown at least one INT in six out of eight games. Fortunately for him and his Dynasty Owners, Dallas has only forced five INTs all season. An average passing week plus a TD and no turnovers is almost 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Add in another TD and that’s good enough to be in your Starting lineup.

Lynn Bowden (RB – MIA): For the second straight week, the pick for RB to Start is a member of the Miami Dolphins. Hopefully this week’s choice Lynn Bowden plays, unlike Myles Gaskin who did not play last week. Speaking of playing, after barely playing through the first 12 weeks of the season, Bowden stepped up with 9.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 13 versus Cincinnati and 15.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 14 versus Kansas City. While he’s listed as a RB, Bowden got almost all of his points in both games catching the ball. He’s also a threat to run or even throw an option pass since he was a QB in college. Bill Belichick’s defenses are usually tough for rookie QBs to figure out, so the Dolphins might try some trickery and have Bowden throw an option pass or two this week. Even if he doesn’t, the Dolphins could be without their two leading receivers in Davante Parker and Mike Gesicki. This would give other Dolphins players an opportunity to shine. Bowden will be one of them and since he’s produced the past two weeks, he’s the best bet to do it again and should be in your Starting lineup.

Keke Coutee (WR – HOU): The Indianapolis Colts pass defense was one of the best for the first half of the season. However, in each of the past four weeks, they have allowed a WR to score over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. First, Davante Adams had 23.6 points, then it was A.J. Brown with 26.9 points, which included a 42-yard TD return of an onside kick. Two weeks ago, it was Coutee whoscored 24.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (8 receptions, 141 receiving yards, 112 return yards). Finally, Nelson Agholor scored 21.0 points against them last week. That’s an average of 24.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Coutee gets a second chance at Indianapolis in Week 15 and it seems likely that it’s going to be a fifth straight game with a WR torching their secondary. That’s why Dynasty Owners should have Coutee in their Starting lineup.

Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): For the past three weeks, Cole Kmet has been on the field for over three-quarters of the Bears’ offensive snaps. All three games featured Mitchell Trubisky at QB. Kmet been targeted 17 times in those games, included 7 times in each of the past two games. In those two games, he has scored 22.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined (9 receptions, 78 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). The Bears’ opponent this week are the Minnesota Vikings who held the Bears’ TEs to just one catch for seven yards back in Week 10 when Nick Foles was the Bears starting QB. The Vikings allowed a pair of Jacksonville TEs (Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy) to catch 10 passes for 86 yards two weeks ago, so they are vulnerable. Trubisky exploit that vulnerability so Kmet can play good enough to have in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 14 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Kyler Murray – 21.9 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: Giovani Bernard – 2.3 (Good recommendation)
  • WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster – 17.5 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Robert Tonyan – 14.6 (Bad recommendation)

We had one Good recommendation, one Just Ok recommendation and two Bad recommendations last week for players to put on your Dynasty Owner Bench. That’s down from the past two weeks when we had two Good recommendations, but it’s still four weeks in a row with at least one Good Bench recommendation. We kept that streak alive because Giovani Bernard had an early fumble, was out of the lineup for a while and only produced 2.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Kyler Murray had an average game with 21.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the call to Bench him was Just Ok. However, JuJu Smith-Schuster was a Top 25 WR and Robert Tonyan was a Top 5 TE so both of those Bench recommendations were Bad. Even though last week’s recommendations weren’t great, our hope of having more Good than Bad recommendations is still alive as we have had 20 Good and 23 Bad Bench recommendations so far this season. With that goal in mind, here’s a set of Bench picks for Week 15.  

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): It seems like all of the top QBs are playing poor pass defenses this week.  Patrick Mahomes does face a good one in the Saints, but there’s no way I’m picking Mahomes to have a bad game. Tannehill has been good this year, but this pick has little to do with Tannehill and his ability to play well against the Detroit Lions. It does have everything to do with the potential that Derrick Henry will run all over the Lions defense and the Titans won’t need Tannehill to throw the ball very much. The Lions have let teams run for over 200 yards twice against them this season and Henry could make it three. If that happens, Tannehill may play well, it’s just that he might not need to do more than hand the ball off to Henry. That would make him better suited to be on your Bench.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC): The rookie with the best ADP (9.4) has been good, but not great this season. He’s the #14 ranked RB even after not playing in Week 13 and is averaging 14.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, he has a match-up against the New Orleans Saints whose defense is allowing the third fewest yards to RBs and not allowing them to catch many passes either (4.3 receptions per game by RBs). Admittedly, they allowed Philadelphia to run for 246 yards against them last week, but 106 of those yards were by QB Jalen Hurts and 82 of Miles Sanders’ 115 yards came on one big play. Otherwise, RBs only had 39 yards on 16 carries. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes will probably find other ways to move the ball against the Saints that don’t involve Edwards-Helaire so leave him on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week. 

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA): Lockett is the #8 ranked WR in Dynasty Owner, but his high ranking is largely built upon two really big games (59.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Arizona in Week 7 and 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Dallas in Week 3). He has 8 TDs on the season, but 6 came in those two games. For the rest of the season, he’s averaging 11.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That average drops to just 10.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since the Week 7 explosion against Arizona. Those averages over the entire season equate to being the #34 (11.5 points per game) or #39 (10.8 points per game) WR in Dynasty Owner and someone better suited for your Bench than the Starting lineup.

Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL): Schultz has been a pleasant surprise for his Dynasty Owners this season. He’s the #10 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner at a salary of just $728,090 after being undrafted. This week, Dallas is playing San Francisco and the 49ers defense is the stingiest in the NFL against opposing TEs, allowing the fewest number of yards (399 yards) and receptions (44) to TEs all season. They have also only allowed 3 receiving TDs by TEs all year. Schultz isn’t the type of TE who produces without scoring a TD. He has scored over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points four times this season, but only once did he score that much without a TD. Schultz is also splitting receptions with three WRs (Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb) plus RB Ezekiel Elliott in the Dallas offense. Hopefully you have a TE on your roster with a better matchup and can leave Schultz on your Bench this week.

Seth’s Quest for a Dynasty Owner Title Matchup

Real Timo’s Titans vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

We saw Seth stay alive in the Crossroads League playoffs last week by dispatching Girthquake and now he’s got a semi-finals match-up against the #1 seed Real Timo’s Titans, the pride and joy of Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer. Can Seth overcome the odds again and keep his 5-game winning streak alive? Let’s take a look and find out:

It’s going to be tough for Seth as based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, his team is projected to lose by a wide margin (150.0-112.9). Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see who’s in there now and if there’s any way Seth and his team can win.

It’s an across-the-board advantage for Real Timo’s Titans from each team’s Starting lineups. Tim’s team is projected to have a 37.1-point lead over Seth and the CLE Piggy Paul’s from their respective current Starting lineups. Only at the WR1 position with Stefon Diggs over Justin Jefferson do the CLE Piggy Paul’s have an advantage. Let’s see if there is anyone on Seth’s Bench who can help him close the gap.

There’s no Bench advantage for either team. However, the projections for Mike Davis from CLE Piggy Paul’s are higher than their Starter in Damien Harris by 5.5 points. That switch could close the gap a little bit, but it’s going to be difficult for Seth to win without some great performances by his team coupled with a poor performance or two from Tim’s squad.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week #2

Bayside Tigers vs. Jet Jones

Our second Match-up of the Week features a rarity among the games for teams in the Chase for the Ring this week. It features two Chase teams who appear heading to a close game. One team is going to win and keep their Ring hopes alive, while the other team will go home and not even have a chance to win their League. Will it be Bayside Tigers, the #5 team in the Chase, or Jet Jones, the #18 team? Let’s find out:

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, it’s going to be a close one. In a high scoring game, an upset is brewing as Jet Jones has a slight advantage (163.4-166.1). Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see which team has better ones than the other.

One team has an advantage from the Starters and its Jet Jones. They have a 12-point lead from his Starters with most of the advantage coming from TE as Darren Waller is projected to outscore T.J. Hockenson by 10 points. Each team has their best offensive weapon outside of QB in their FLEX with Tyreek Hill for Bayside Tigers up against Davante Adams of Jet Jones. Interestingly, the Starting QB for Bayside Tigers is Aaron Rodgers so if Rodgers throws TDs to players on the Packers not named Davante Adams, it could swing the game to the Bayside Tigers’ advantage.

With Jet Jones having such an advantage from their Starters, let’s see how Bayside Tigers stay alive in this match-up from each team’s Bench.

Bayside Tigers have a much better Bench with a Tampa Bay Bench stack of the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady and Antonio Brown against Atlanta. Both teams also have injury concerns on their Bench with Ryan Succop for Bayside Tigers and more importantly, Matthew Stafford for Jet Jones. If Stafford doesn’t play as currently projected, Jet Jones loses the Bench scoring by 46.7 points, which equates to 9.3 more points for Bayside Tigers. Stafford gutting it out for the Lions and Jet Jones, or Jet Jones having a viable QB replacement on their Practice Squad, might be the determining factor in this Chase for the Ring elimination game.

Conclusion

Whether you’re in your League playoffs and trying to win some money or just $100 million Dynasty Dollars, or in the Loser’s Bracket tournament and vying for that 1.13 pick to help rebuild your Dynasty, it’s all about winning and staying alive. For Seth and Tim, it’s also about bragging rights for an entire year on the Dynasty Owner podcast. For Bayside Tigers and Jet Jones, winning and staying alive means having an opportunity to win the Ring and all of the glory that comes with it. Next week is the big one – the finals of the Playoffs and Loser’s Bracket tournament. Somebody we preview will win their League and maybe even the Ring.

Because of the frozen rosters during the Playoffs, there’s no need for the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but he’s got an Intro to Rebuilding and Retooling Your Roster for those of you who aren’t competing in the playoffs right now. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) looks at Sleepers and Rookies in his article this week. Read both of them to know how to keep building your Dynasty and follow all of us and Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

The weekly Tuesday Live podcast is at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) with Seth and Tim. That’s where you can find out if CLE Piggy Paul’s (Seth) or Real Timo’s Titans (Tim) won their match-up and who has a chance to win the Crossroads League title. If Real Timo’s Titans wins, then Tim and I will likely discuss it as well on our weekly podcast on Wednesday at 1PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific). Both will be streaming live on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube.

Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 572 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Intro to Rebuilding and Retooling Your Roster

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

Whether any of us owners want to admit it or not, we have all been through a rebuild at some point in our dynasty careers. If you have played dynasty 10 plus years and have managed to never rebuild, congratulations that is near impossible to do. Many things may cause an owner to rebuild in fantasy, with none being more of a nuisance than the classic injury bug. Over the years I’ve played fantasy football, I’ve witnessed countless juggernauts lose due to injury, heck I had a team I thought couldn’t be touched lose this week by 1.8 points because Julio didn’t play and I was forced to start Mike Williams, who put up a big fat goose egg, as well as DJ Moore out with COVID-19.

These types of moments can happen at any time making depth so important to winning a championship. I’ve been told more than once that in fantasy making the playoffs consistently determines your skill, once you are in the playoffs its mainly luck, with most teams in the playoffs on the same level. I truly believe the statement given simply because anything can happen in fantasy and as we have all learned projections mean absolutely nothing in fantasy. One great piece of advice I can give you is to make the rebuild fun. If you go into a rebuild upset because your team is horrible it more than likely won’t turn out well, but if you get excited do some research and find your rookies, rebuilding can be every bit as fun as winning.

In this article I will quickly break down the different terms you will hear when talking about rebuilds, timing of a rebuild, when you should consider a rebuild vs. a retool, and what challenges rebuilding presents in Dynasty Owner. This is the first article of many geared towards rebuilding your team, each article will go in depth on the different topics and the strategies behind them. Also, some of the best info you will find on Dynasty Owner comes from reading articles on the site and watching the live streams, both can help immensely in your rebuild. With this platform being so unique, articles and streams will give you an advantage over those who don’t watch or read along consistently.

The most common terms you will hear with this is either rebuild or tear down. Rebuilding or tearing your team down is exactly how it sounds, it’s a full on rebuild where you look to trade pretty much every player on your roster who holds value another owner can use. There are a lot of players who use the terms rebuild and retool with the same context.

  • A retool is when an owner feels he’s 2-3 players away from a potential championship and will look to trade young players who are not performing or draft capital to acquire the pieces they feel will put them over the top.

Retooling can also be used when your team is hit with injury and you need to find equal production to fill the injured players spot in your lineup. Middle of the road is another term you may hear when talking about certain dynasty teams.

The middle of the road is the worst place to be in fantasy, meaning you’re too good to get the 1st overall pick, but you’re also not good enough to win it all. Middle of the road is no different than your favorite team picking 10-20 every year in the NFL draft, missing the cream of the crop. The last term I want to talk about is tanking, tanking is when you want to lose at all costs to get the best draft pick you can. There are a few different methods to tanking, but in my opinion only one of them is the right way to go about it, which is trade your good players away for young breakout candidates who aren’t producing just yet and play them. The wrong way to tank is to blatantly try to lose by not setting a lineup, while this is a full proof plan it’s not fair to other owners in the playoff hunt. I by no means am saying not to tank just use proper fantasy etiquette when doing so.

Timing seems to be everything when it comes to rebuilding or retooling your team. If you are in the middle of the offseason most players, you trade will bring back less value than in season. The main reason that causes this is the eye test, for instance someone is much more likely to overpay for a player in the middle of a great season compared to a player someone hasn’t seen play in months. A great example, if you are an owner with CMC right now is probably the worst time to trade him. Any owner you send a CMC offer is likely going to counter with less due to not seeing him play in what feels like over a year, on top of that he’s injured, and can’t help anyone win right now or anytime soon.

A rebuild can be expedited by nailing the timing of trades but can also add on a few years if you miss on your trades. I have done quite a bit of digging on timing of rebuilds and I have found one answer is close to universally agreed upon, a week or two before the trade deadline almost always brings back the most value. If you are a trade deadline rebuilder always be sure to follow injuries close, as the owners with injured players tend to panic when trying to find a suitable replacement. While timing is almost everything when trading it is still up to the rebuilding owner to acquire the correct pieces and hit on their draft picks or its back to the bottom they go.

The last two things I want to touch on are why any owner would consider a rebuild, I mean you’re almost guaranteed to lose at that point, along with a quick look at some of the problems Dynasty Owner presents when starting your rebuild. Going into your season you have one thing on your mind most years, win a championship. So why on earth would anyone realistically want to rebuild? As a wise man once said in dynasty “even when you’re losing, you’re winning”, meaning if you finish dead last, you’ll have someone like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and plenty of stud position players staring you in the face. While I realize no owner truly wants to blatantly lose, sometimes it’s the only option if you want to win quicker. The true challenge here is learning how to rebuild and still managing your cap space in the coming seasons. For instance, you don’t want to go out and acquire 3 or 4 studs on cheap deals who are set to get  likely having to drop someone. The salaries also make rebuilding extremely strategic because if you are a team with loads of cap space you can afford to take on a bad contract to gain a young player or draft capital.

A trade I made involving this strategy was moving off Julio Jones ($22,000,000) for Reagor (3,317,669), A. Green (17,971,000) and a 2022 1st. In any other league no owner in their right mind would trade Julio for Green and Reagor but when drafting Julio, I knew with how expensive he is, and I would need to amnesty him at the end of the year. Instead, I was able to eat Greens salary, give him a stud, and get Reagor and a 1st on top of it. I also used this strategy when acquiring Gibson ($1,226,433), and draft capital and I used Greg Olsen ($7,000,000) to open space up for my trading partner which ended up closing the deal. I have found that owners will pay to open space on their roster and are much more likely to pull the trigger if you are willing to eat a bad deal in return. The most important thing to remember when taking on a bad contract is the contract length, if it’s over 2 years and you can’t amnesty find a different deal, not having space can cripple the best of teams on Dynasty Owner.

Hopefully this gives everyone a solid understanding on what to expect in these articles moving forward. If you have any topics or questions, you’d like in any of these articles feel free to reach out on twitter. As mentioned above these are going to be very in-depth articles on very specific topic’s on rebuilding, as well as different types of strategies you can deploy at different stages of your rebuild. It will also include a few retooling articles for those of you that went out and killed it this season. In dynasty there is never a good time to be satisfied with your roster or draft capital and you should always be looking for more talent to improve your roster, and never forget about the bottom end players.

As sad as it is to see the end of the fantasy season come to close in the coming weeks this is when it really starts to get fun in Dynasty Owner with so much going on in the off season. The off season is truly what makes this platform so different and I hope you all enjoy it as much as I will, as always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Sleepers and Rookies

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

Welcome back everyone and thank you for returning once again. It’s a cliche thought, but this season has really “flown by.”  We are through fourteen weeks, and there are only two weeks remaining in our fantasy season. Soon we will celebrate the new year as that is only half a month away, but we still have work to do. We still have to win many of you a Dynasty Owner Championship, and we have to win a single Owner something much more. Yes, we are two weeks away from crowning a new Chase for the Ring Champion.

I am, however, well aware that many more are not competing for a championship or The Ring. In fact, at the time of this writing, the Dynasty Owners still in contention for a league championship are one third of what they were at the start of the season. That’s right, our twelve team leagues have all been cut down to four teams. For this reason, I am going to, symbolically, split my article into thirds. One third of my article is going to break down info that I think would be more beneficial to teams that are still competing for a title. Two thirds of this article is going to discuss my outlook on select rookies, and my positional DO rookie rankings. Let’s get to it…

For the first part of this article, I’m going to talk about some of the top fantasy performers over the past few weeks and how these “hot” players can help win championships. As I mentioned in my previous article, everyone knows that we are unable to make any trades or acquisitions until the championship has finished. For this reason, it does no good to talk about trying to trade for or pick up a player. Instead, I’m going to take a deep look at some sleepers that are rostered, but they may not have been started for most of the season.

Championship Sleepers

Quick, who am I?

I am currently the WR 27 in Dynasty Owner. I have averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game this season, but I have averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game since Week 5. I have only twice as many receptions as I do rushes, and I have only one more receiving touchdown (3) than rushing touchdown (2). I am the third wide receiver on my team’s depth chart.

All of these stats are true, and I am Curtis Samuel.

Samuel is quietly putting together a respectable season. His name isn’t flashy, and he wouldn’t have much trade value, but he has been above average for Dynasty Owners. Yes, some of Samuel’s success occurred because Christian McCaffrey has missed all but three games this season. This is true, but I am unconcerned for a couple of reasons. First, there is no guarantee that CMC returns next week (or at all for that matter). Second, Samuel averaged three rushes per game when CMC was active. Three rushes per game is nothing to write home about, but when he receives these rushes they are (obviously) designed and in high leverage situations. I have Samuel as a low end WR2 for the remainder of the season and a lock to get you 10 points per game. Hell, he’s only fallen below 10 points once since Week 5. Not bad for a player that only costs you $1,613,421 this year.

Here comes another question for you. Which wide receiver has averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game in the games that he’s played and has averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game over the past five games played?  This is a tough one and one that I would not have known myself. For reference, over his past five games he is averaging more fantasy points per game than Adam Thielen (17.6), Justin Jefferson (16.8), Stefon Diggs (19.2) and DK Metcalf (19.2) have averaged for their whole season. The receiver is Brandon Aiyuk.

Aiyuk is becoming more involved in the 49ers offense, and he looks to be heading toward an even bigger workload now that Deebo Samuel is possibly done for the season with a hamstring injury. Aiyuk probably isn’t a player that carried your team to the postseason, but he will be as reliable as they come for the next couple of weeks.

Let’s do one more before we segway into the rookie ranks for each position.

I feel real dirty suggesting this player is a sleeper, but given the position, you may not have few better options. The player I’m talking about is Dan Arnold. Arnold is a tight end that plays for the Arizona Cardinals. He is 25 years old and is only owned in 63% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Arnold has only 22 receptions and 313 yards on the season. So, why am I suggesting you start him?  I’m suggesting you start him solely on the fact that he has touchdown potential. Arnold has scored four touchdowns in his last four games. Even with that fact, he has averaged only 10.2 fantasy points per game over those four. He has four touchdowns but only six receptions. This means two things…First, Arnold is a very, very low volume receiving tight end. He isn’t going to put up a 7/55/2 stat line in any game. Second, he has five red zone targets in the last four games, and he has nine on the season.

Once again, I’m not saying Arnold is going to win your league, but he should get at least one red zone shot per game, and he can get you between eight and twelve fantasy points per game. At $615,000 this year, he should have been rostered in every league prior to the playoffs.

Rookie Rankings

As I explained in my opening, I’m going to be giving a brief look at my updated rookie rankings. Hopefully this will help Owners get a good idea of how to value some of these players we were so high on to start the season. This should be especially helpful to Owners that have already been eliminated from any potential prize and that are looking forward to next season.

RankPlayer, TeamSalaryYearsADP
QB1Justin Herbert, LAC$6,644,688498.8
QB2Joe Burrow, CIN$9,047,534426.1
QB3Jalen Hurts, PHI$610,0004158.8
QB4Tua Tagovailoa, MIA$7,568,859464.0
QB5Jacob Eason, IND$841,8164190.1
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Rookie quarterback rankings have come a long way since the preseason. Joe Burrow was regularly taken in the middle to late second round. That pick was more than justified based on Burrow’s play before his injury, but as you can see there is plenty of lost value in the rest of the list.

Herbert comes in as my rookie QB1. This shouldn’t be a surprise especially if you read my article last week. Herbert has been sensational this season, and I don’t use that term often. Anyone that drafted him around the seventh or eighth round is more than happy with their pick.

It was a tough choice to place Hurts over Tua, but that’s where they landed. Hurts obviously has a very small sample size, and I don’t expect him to continuously rush for over 100 yards a game, but it was an impressive first start, nonetheless. Hurts has a bright career ahead of him, and it’s starting sooner than most people thought it would.

Overall, the rookie quarterback class is shallow, at least for fantasy production this year. I expect Eason, Love and Fromm to all have above average careers if/when they take over as a lead quarterback.

RankPlayer, TeamSalaryYearsADP
RB1Jonathan Taylor, IND$1,957,287416.1
RB2D’Andre Swift, DET$2,134,728433.2
RB3James Robinson, JAC$763,3334251.0
RB4Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC$2,705,39349.4
RB5Antonio Gibson, WAS$1,226,433488.2
RB6J.K. Dobbins, BAL$1,432,359427.1
RB7Cam Akers, LA$1,543,258434.6
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Rookie running backs have moved quite a bit as well. They have moved not only based on ranks but ADP too. Jonathan Taylor comes in as my number one rookie running back. We knew he had the talent and build to make an immediate impact in the NFL, but he hadn’t been given the workload we wanted to see. Well, over the past three games Taylor has 21 touches and over 23 fantasy points per game. He is a top twelve running back for the rest of the season, and purchasing him in the second round is finally paying off for Dynasty Owners.

It’s impossible to make this list without discussing James Robinson. By far the most impressive rookie running back this year, Robinson is making a case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He is RB4 on the season and is averaging nearly 21 touches per game. There is no player in Dynasty Owner that has been more of a value than Robinson. Assuming Jacksonville doesn’t use an early draft pick on a running back, this dominance by Robinson should continue into 2021 and possibly beyond.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers have all fallen in my ranks. Actually, I wouldn’t say they have fallen. It’s more appropriate to say that other players previously below them have risen. Looking at this list of seven running backs it’s hard to say that anyone of them is guaranteed to be better than the next. What I can say is this…I believe that all seven (maybe excluding Robinson) will have an expanded workload in 2021 as their teams start to realize they are all the best and most explosive running backs on the depth charts. There is a fine career for each of these backs.

RankPlayer, TeamSalaryYearsADP
WR1Justin Jefferson, MIN$3,280,701480.7
WR2CeeDee Lamb, DAL$3,502,503458.6
WR3Chase Claypool, PIT$1,654,1564157.4
WR4Tee Higgins, CIN$2,171,6964131.7
WR5Brandon Aiyuk, SF$3,132,8354105.1
WR6Jalen Reagor, PHI$3,317,669473.2
WR7Jerry Jeudy, DEN$3,798,243454.6
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I think it would be hard for anyone to argue that Justin Jefferson is not the number one rookie wide receiver in Dynasty Owner. He leads all rookie receivers in fantasy points (219) and the next closest is Chase Claypool (174). Jefferson has five games of seven or more receptions and five games of over 100 yards receiving. He has also scored one or more touchdowns in five games. Remarkable. Jefferson has shown the ability to be the number one on his team when he still has an actual number one playing next to him. I would take Jefferson over any other rookie wide receiver.

The rest of the list was a little difficult to piece together. I have Reagor and Jeudy as WR6 and WR7, and I feel pretty comfortable with that. The WR2 through WR5 are tough though. I have CeeDee second mainly because I predict Dak will return to Dallas next year, and if he does, Lamb will be a top 24 wide receiver overall. Chase Claypool had one massive week that accounts for 25 percent of his total fantasy points on the year. Now, I’m not taking that week away from him, but it is an obvious outlier. Claypool has been a very solid wide receiver on eight out of his thirteen games, but he also can “disappear” from week to week as well. I look for his role to continue to increase especially with the chance that JuJu Smith Schuster may not be a Steeler in 2021.

RankPlayer, TeamSalaryYearsADP
TE1Cole Kmet, CHI$1,894,4444189.7
TE2Adam Trautman, NO$1,014,4114209.2
TE3Devin Asiasi, NE$1,068,2144218.8
TE4Harrison Bryant, CLE$851,0074261.5
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As it is with most years, the rookie tight end class has barely made a splash in 2020. The reason for this is probably far beyond my knowledge of NFL playbooks, but I think it has something to do with the fact that tight ends essentially learn two positions. I think of tight ends as an extension of the linemen, and the play calling schemes can be just as (if not more) complicated for tight ends. Along with this learning curve, most tight ends are also responsible for running routes. Now, I’m not saying that this is an impossible feat or that it can’t happen quickly, but it usually takes time.

With this being said, the most successful tight end this year (fantasy wise) is Harrison Bryant with 49 fantasy points. That’s not saying much as it puts him at TE39 on the season. Cole Kmet has risen up my rankings lately, and I see him as the tight end that will adjust to the NFL the fastest of the entire 2020 rookie class. Adam Trautman and Devin Asiasi are stashes. They should not be dropped, and hopefully they will be able to provide fantasy production within the next couple of years.

Thanks all, and I’ll catch you next time.

TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 14 Recap: Little Change at the Top

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

The NFL standings after Week 13 had 11 teams sitting in the lead or tied for the lead in their division. In the AFC, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Kansas City each led their respective divisions outright, while Tennessee and Indianapolis sat tied for first place in the AFC South. In the NFC, Green Bay and New Orleans had outright leads, while New York and Washington were tied at the top of the NFC East, while out in the NFC West, Seattle and Los Angeles were tied.

After Week 14, the top of the standings hadn’t changed much as 10 out of those 11 teams were still in at least a tie for first place. While Pittsburgh and New Orleans both lost, neither team fell out of first place. Eight of the other first place teams won to maintain their grip on at least a share of the lead in their division. Only the New York Giants lost and fell out of first place in their division.

It’s a little bit different in Dynasty Owner because it’s the playoffs. While bye weeks for the top two teams in every Dynasty Owner league ensures that the teams with the best records are still alive in their quest for a League Championship, a couple of teams at the top of the Chase for the Ring standings finished outside of the top two in their League. As a result, they had to battle an opponent in the first round of the playoffs.

As we see in the NFL, being in first place in your division is no guarantee of a Week 14 victory. Pittsburgh lost to another first place team in Buffalo, while New Orleans was upset by Philadelphia. Similarly, being in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings was no guarantee of a first round playoff victory. Just ask Hingle McCringleberry. The 14th ranked team overall after the regular season went down to defeat in the first round of the playoffs (losing a nail biter to Hot Mess by a score of 152.7 to 152.3).

Our Dynasty Owner Player of the Week had a great performance in Week 14 that helped his team stay at the top of their division. For this first round of the playoffs edition of the Dynasty Owner weekly recap, we’ll name the Player of the Week, the Value Player of the Week and also highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out if Seth won his playoff game that was featured as our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week. We’ll also look at the new Chase for the Ring standings featuring only teams still alive for their League Championship and see if any changes that occurred in the Top 10.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 15th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our first 2020 playoff Dynasty Owner Player of the Week is: Derrick Henry

For the second time this season, Derrick Henry of the first place Tennessee Titans topped 200 yards to receive the 6 point bonus. Not coincidentally, it was also the second time that he has been named the Dynasty Owner Player of the Week. Back in Week 6 against Houston, Henry ran for 212 yards and 2 rushing TDs, including the game-winner in overtime, plus 2 receptions for 52 yards to score 49.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Henry had three more yards (215) but fewer receiving yards and 42.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (215 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 2 receptions, 7 receiving yards). He also had more than 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (40.5) two weeks ago against the Indianapolis Colts. That’s one game of over 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against each team in the division for Henry. A division that he has helped his team to sits on top of along with Indianapolis.

  • Week 14 Points: 42.2
  • 2020 Salary: $10,278,000
  • Cost per Point: $243,555

Congratulations Derrick on winning your second Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor of the 2020 season and helping your team stay in a tie for first place!

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The first 2020 playoff Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week is: Russell Gage

Gage was a trendy sleeper pick in Dynasty Owner this year after a finishing up the second half of the 2019 season strong. It’s the combination of being the #3 receiver in Atlanta with Matt Ryan at QB for the Falcons offense along with a very friendly contract of $654,049 that runs through the 2021 season. This week, he had his best performance of 2020 with 21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (5 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 39 passing yards, 1 passing TD). The 21.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was the fewest number of points scored by a Value Player of the Week in 2020 as well as less than any player who won the honor in 2019.

  • Week 14 Points: 21.1
  • 2020 Salary: $654,049
  • Cost per Point: $30,998

Congratulations Russell on your first Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor.

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 14. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Derrick Henry because barring injury or bye week, he should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might normally be on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 14 when they should have been.

QB: Drew Lock (DEN) – 34.4 points

Inconsistency is only thing consistent about Drew Lock’s 2020 season. He’s played in 10 games, scored 163.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this season and currently ranks as the #28 QB in Dynasty Owner. He has had three games of less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, three games of more than 30.0 points and four games with between 10.0 and 20.0 points. This week, Lock turned in one of his good performances as he had 34.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (280 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 4 rushing yards, 2 fumbles – 1 lost). This came on the heels of three poor performances in which he averaged 11.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (he missed the Week 12 game along with all of the other Denver QBs). Lock and his $1.75 million annual salary is owned in every Dynasty Owner league, but after those three bad performances, there were likely few Dynasty Owners who dared to put him in their Starting lineup when they should have done so.

Honorable mention to Mitchell Trubisky who had almost as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points as Lock (33.6) and sits right behind Lock in the QB rankings at #29 even though he has only started six games this year. Despite getting benched  after winning the first three games of the season for Chicago, he is still owned in 80% of Dynasty Owner leagues. This week, he had 33.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (267 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 23 rushing yards). That’s his second best performance of 2020 and one that made him worthy of being in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

RB: Cam Akers (LAR) – 23.4 points

With an ADP of 34.6, Cam Akers was expected to be doing better than being the #49 ranked RB after 14 weeks of the 2020 season. As his Dynasty Owners could likely tell you, it was frustrating to see him put up an average of 3.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the first ten games of the season and seemingly being the third RB for the Rams. However, after ripping off a 61 yard run in Week 12 against San Francisco, Akers has been the lead RB for the Rams and a welcome addition to the Starting RB mix for his Dynasty Owners. He is averaging 18.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, including a career high 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (171 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 23 receiving yards) in Week 14. That performance helped the Rams to a win over the Patriots on Thursday Night, a win that allowed them to stay in a tie for the lead in their division. Akers is looking like a must Start player in the Dynasty Owner playoffs after Week 14. Hopefully he was in your Starting lineup this week and your team advanced.

Honorable mention to Gus Edwards of Baltimore who had 18.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (49 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 reception, 4 receiving yards) in Baltimore’s wild Monday Night Football victory over the Browns. That’s a season best performance for another RB stuck on a team with two other quality RBs. The two TDs were unexpected and probably didn’t help too many Dynasty Owners, unless they were smart enough to predict this performance from Edwards and had him in their Starting lineup.

WR: K.J. Hamler (DEN) – 22.6 points

For the second week in a row, we had someone with a very efficient week of two receptions for two TDs. Last week, it was Dan Arnold of the Arizona Cardinals, while this week, it was K.J. Hamler of the Denver Broncos. Hamler had 2 receptions for 86 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs (22.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) in the Broncos 32-27 victory over the Carolina Panthers. That’s a season high for the 21 year old rookie receiver from Penn State and possibly a preview of things to come in the future between himself and QB Drew Lock. It was his best game of the year and his Dynasty Owners probably weren’t expecting it this week, so they likely didn’t have him in their Starting lineup.

TE: Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) – 16.3 points

Bigger things were expected this season from Irv Smith Jr. than he has produced for his Dynasty Owners. Smith was drafted pretty high as his ADP of 132.9 made him the 13th TE drafted on average. However, he is only the #33 ranked TE for the season in Dynasty Owner, even after his 16.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (4 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD) in Week 14. Injuries caused him to sit out three of the past four weeks. Even though he was expected to be productive with fellow TE Kyle Rudolph out, his Dynasty Owners can be forgiven if they didn’t want to include him in their playoff Starting lineup this week and left him on the Bench.

K: Greg Zuerlein (DAL) – 12.0 points

On average, Zuerlein was the fourth kicker off the board in Dynasty Owner drafts this year. The combination of his strong leg (that’s why his nickname is Greg the Leg), the high-powered Dallas offense behind Dak Prescott and a lower than average salary of $2.5 million annually made attractive to Dynasty Owners who picked their kicker on the early side of the draft. However, he’s been very shaky on the longer FG attempts this year, making only one out of six attempts from 50 yards or longer in the Dynasty Owner regular season. He came through this week, nailing a 55 yard FG, plus two other FGs from 39 yards or less (20 and 34 yards) and 3 PATs to be the highest scoring kicker of the week with 12.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hopefully his Dynasty Owner stuck with him and kept him in their Starting lineup despite Zuerlein being ranked outside of the top 12 kickers prior to the start of the Dynasty Owner playoffs.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one high drafted or high ranked player who probably was in your Starting lineup but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few, none or negative Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in the first round of the playoffs.

QB: Matt Ryan (ATL) – 8.5 points

Matt Ryan has played some of his worst football since the Falcons bye week. In the four games since going on bye, Ryan has only averaged 12.35 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Turnovers have been an issue as he had 7 turnovers (5 INTs, 2 fumbles – 1 lost) in the first nine games of the season and 7 of them (6 INTs and 1 fumble – lost) in the last four games. In the first week of the Dynasty Owner playoffs, Ryan only had 8.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (224 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 3 rushing yards, 3 INTs). Hopefully you heeded the warning signs from the previous couple of weeks and left Ryan on your Bench.

RB: James Conner (PIT) – 0.8 points

After missing the past two games, Dynasty Owners with James Conner on their team were likely happy to have him back for the first round of the playoffs. He had averaged 13.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the Steelers’ first ten games before going on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Unfortunately for everyone who relied on him to return to that form after the time off, Conner went out and put up his worst performance of the year with just 0.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (18 rushing yards, 1 fumble). Even after this poor performance, he’s still ranked as the #24 RB in Dynasty Owner, so he’s still your RB2 or FLEX starter if you advanced in your playoffs or Loser bracket tournament. However, in the first round of both of those, he should have been on your Bench.

WR: Corey Davis (TEN) – 3.4 points

Three WRs (Davante Parker, Mike Williams, Deebo Samuel) who could have potentially been in your Starting lineup had poor performances this week, but all three of them were injured and therefore, not eligible for this spot. One week after his best game of the season (35.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Cleveland in Week 13), Corey Davis was likely in the Starting lineup for plenty of his Dynasty Owners since he was facing the Jacksonville defense. Unfortunately for them, Davis had his second worse game of the season with only 3.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost). He should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench, not in the Starting lineup.

TE: Hayden Hurst (ATL) – 1.7 points

Just like Matt Ryan, Hurst hasn’t scored a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points since the Falcons’ bye week. He only scored 10.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first three games after their bye and added just 1.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception, 7 receiving yards) in Week 14. He has finally fallen out of the top 12 TEs now as he’s the #15 TE in Dynasty Owner after this week. Hopefully his Dynasty Owners had a better option to go with and had Hurst on their Bench or Practice Squad.

K: Brandon McManus (DEN) – 0.0 points

If you consider Sunday the start of the week, then it’s been a pretty miserable week so far for Brandon McManus. And it’s only Tuesday. First, he missed two PAT attempts on Sunday, while making two others to score his Dynasty Owners exactly 0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week. Then on Monday, he announced that he would be heading to the reserve/COVID-19 list because of close contact with someone infected.

Dishonorable mention to Graham Gano of the New York Giants. Gano had been a pleasant surprise at kicker for his Dynasty Owner this season up until this week when the Giants offense only produced one TD and no FG attempts for him. He made the kick, but the 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance was his worst of the year. Hopefully concerns about the Giants offense led his Dynasty Owners to leave Gano on the Bench this week.

Special dishonorable mention to Dan Bailey. After missing three kicks in Week 13, Bailey was at it again in Week 14. If you had him in your Starting lineup, you probably know that he ended up with -8.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points after missing all three of his FG attempts (36, 46 and 54 yards) plus his only PAT attempt. That’s seven missed kicks in the crucial final week of the regular season and first round of the playoffs for Bailey’s Dynasty Owners. His ownership is high at 79% so plenty of you have him on your rosters. If you haven’t done it already then banish Bailey to your Bench or Practice Squad.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap –

Girthquake vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

The improbable late season and playoff run by Seth and CLE Piggy Pauls continues as they took out Girthquake by a score of 135.7-129.4 in the first round of the Dynasty Owner playoffs. It was a clean sweep of the season series for the CLE Piggy Pauls as they defeated Girthquake twice in the regular season in addition to their playoff victory.

After starting the season at 1-3, Seth ripped off four straight victories before a loss in Week 9 to sit at 5-4 on the season. They got back on the winning track in Week 10 and haven’t lost since then, even after losing their starting QB Joe Burrow to injury in Week 11.

Girthquake had the Player of the Week Derrick Henry and Value Player of the Week Russell Gage on their roster but CLE Piggy Pauls had balance with four players in their Starting lineup scoring over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. As a result, Seth advances to the playoff semi-finals in the Crossroads League to face Dynasty Owner Tim while Girthquake’s 2020 Dynasty Owner season is over.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

If these standings look familiar, it’s because there has been little change in our Top 10 over the past week. It’s all of the same teams with just wanna win moving ahead of All Might into third place. Of course, it’s because all of the teams in the Top 10 had first round playoff byes, but half of them put up more than 190.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week (with another team just missing out with 189.2) to maintain their Chase position. However, there has been a slight bit of tightening of Barbee Kilgore’s lead over all of the Top 10 except second place Quaranteed for Greatness. Barbee Kilgore scored 163.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, but everyone else in the Top 10 just scored more and closed the gap slightly.

Conclusions

The lack of changes at the top of the Chase for the Ring standings after the first round of the playoffs (as well as the Loser’s bracket tournament) was not a huge surprise. We did lose one Top 25 team, but with everyone playing this week and all of the playoff teams trying to win their League championship, we should have some more movement as only two out of twelve team per League can remain in the Chase.  

The NFL schedule appears to have stabilized and so the regular Tuesday recap and Friday preview articles are on tap. Please read the Week 15 preview article to see how my Week 14 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in the playoffs and loser’s bracket tournament semi-finals. We will have an article on Championship Sleepers and Rookie Rankings from Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) coming on Wednesday as well. Two more weeks without transactions means that we won’t have the regular weekly look at Free Agent Auction targets from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but he’ll be back. Be sure to follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter to read what we’re writing and tweeting.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer goes live at 1 PM on Wednesday. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 569 subscribers on YouTube right now and we thank everyone who has subscribed already. All of this great content is available to help you win your semi-finals matchup and continue your quest to make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

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