Week 14 Preview – Tough Decisions

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Start and Bench decisions are always tough to make in fantasy football. You really have no control over what’s going to happen on Sunday (or Thursday, Monday and even Tuesday or Wednesday this year) and the uncertainty about who’s going to play and how much just makes it worse. It’s like NFL coaches don’t understand how important their decisions are to millions of us fantasy football players.

Last year, there was a big outcry in the fantasy community when the Cardinals had David Johnson activated for a Week 7 game versus the Giants but played only three snaps while his backup at the time (Chase Edmonds) ended up with 37.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It happened again in Week 13 this year with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Both times, the team’s coach said the active player was available, but only in “an emergency”.  Unfortunately, those announcements were made after the game was played and fantasy managers made the tough and ultimately incorrect decision to start Johnson (or Edwards-Helaire) instead of Edmonds or someone else who could help them win.

Start or Bench decisions are even tougher when you’re in the playoffs or trying to win that extra first round draft pick in the Loser’s Bracket tournament. A loss in Week 7 when David Johnson is a Starter for your Dynasty Owner team but barely plays hurts, but can be overcome. A loss in the first round of the playoffs or draft pick tournament is permanent, you’re out!

This week’s decisions have more weight and also seemed more difficult to make. There are players out with COVID who might be cleared in time to play on Sunday, lots of guys are “limited” in practice on Thursday, but end up playing on Sunday while others don’t. There was a Thursday night game that might have caused you to decide earlier than you would have like to do it. The decision between two similar players is already tough enough, but the added layer of being in a must-win situation just amplifies everything.

Everyone has tough decisions if they have a game this week or are in the Chase for the Ring standings and need to keep scoring points. And we have a Match-up of the Week featuring someone who has publicly agonized with the tough decisions about who to pick up and start for his team at the end of the season. Now, he ended up making the playoffs, so the tough decisions continue. We’ll look at his playoff game, check out the overall projected score and then the Starters and Bench for both teams to see how their current lineups are projected to produce.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 11th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 13 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Mitchell Trubisky – 16.9 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: J.K. Dobbins – 13.1 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Sterling Shepard – 5.2 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Mike Gesicki – 23.8 (Good recommendation)

A slightly below average Week 13 with only one Good recommendation and one Just Ok plus two Bad recommendations. Both Trubisky and Shepard were well outside of the top players for Week 13. In the middle was J.K. Dobbins who finished just outside of the Top 20 RBs with his 13.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy point week. The choice of Mike Gesicki at TE was the first Good TE recommendation since back in Week 4. Even though we had more Bad than Good recommendations during the regular season, we still get to make more tough decisions about who should be in your Starting lineup in Week 14:

Taysom Hill (QB – NO):  So far, Taysom Hill has been pretty good as the starting QB for the New Orleans Saints, scoring just under 23.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in his three starts. His passing hasn’t been off the charts with just 543 passing yards as a starter (181 per game). However, much to the annoyance of Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Owner, he’s made up for it by averaging 59.3 rushing yards per game and scoring 4 rushing TDs. In Week 14, the Saints get to play the Eagles, who have given up 17 rushing TDs this year (third most in the NFL) and a rushing TD in nine games. It’s highly likely that the Saints have a rushing TD this week and that the ball stays in Hill’s hands for that TD. Lamar Jackson had his best rushing game of the year back in Week 6 against the Eagles with 9 rushes for 108 yards and a rushing TD. Hill could duplicate the 34.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points that Jackson scored that week, making him someone you want in your Starting lineup.

Myles Gaskin (RB – MIA): Cam Akers would have been perfect in this spot as he was the #57 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner before last night’s Rams-Patriots game, but slated to be the lead RB. Akers didn’t disappoint the Dynasty Owners who started him as he got them 23.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The next best choice is tough, but the nod goes to Myles Gaskin. With the return of Tua Tagovailoa, the return of Gaskin to the Miami lineup may have been overshadowed a little, but his return was important for the Dolphins who have been hit with the injury bug at RB. Gaskin came in last week and returned to form with 13.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points – right on his season long average of 13.8 points per game. Since he’s missed four games, he’s only the overall #33 RB in Dynasty Owner and since his Dynasty Owners didn’t draft him (ADP 258.8) with the intent of starting him in the playoffs, he fits here. He seems like a good play for your Starting lineup in the playoffs because he’s been very consistent – no real highs (season high of 20.1), but no lows either (season low of 9.2). If you forgot to get him in your Starting lineup last week, there’s plenty of time to make the decision to get him in it this week.

Michael Gallup (WR – DAL): Out of the five Dallas Cowboys’ starting skill position players (RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Amari Cooper, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Michael Gallup and TE Dalton Schultz), Gallup is the only one not to have experienced a drop in production after the injury to starting QB Dak Prescott. Gallup has averaged 7.3 targets per game without Dak after averaging 5.6 targets per game with him. He averaged 11.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the five games that Dak started, but has gone up slightly to 12.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the seven games without him. Last week against the Ravens, Andy Dalton targeted him 11 times (more than either Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb) and he scored 21.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. As the #44 WR in Dynasty Owner on the season, Gallup is just outside of being a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup, but put him in there this week against Cincinnati.

Noah Fant (TE – DEN): After the first two weeks of the season, the idea of Fant not being in the Top 12 TEs seemed ridiculous as he had 19.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1 versus Tennessee and 17.7 points in Week 2 versus Pittsburgh. Since then, he’s gone without a TD catch and now sits as the #14 TE overall. It hasn’t been all terrible as he has still averaged 7.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game since Week 3. In the 10 games he’s played this season with a real QB, he’s averaging 6.5 targets per game and now gets to face the Carolina defense that is in the bottom five in targets, receptions and receiving yards allowed to TEs. Fant is unlikely to produce a huge number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but should get enough to be worth having in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 13 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Josh Allen – 40.8 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Kenyan Drake – 13.8 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Terry McLaurin – 3.4 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Hunter Henry – 1.5 (Good recommendation)

Two weeks in a row with two Good recommendations. That’s better than most of the season and better than the Starting lineup recommendations. My Bench recommendations have been the best for WRs and TEs and these are the positions that were spot on this week. Terry McLaurin and Hunter Henry had less than 5.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined. Kenyan Drake was trending towards a Good recommendation, but had a 4-yard TD run in the fourth quarter to give him double-digit points and a Just Ok mark. Finally, the choice for QB was terrible for the fourth week in a row. Time to make our first set of playoff Starting lineup recommendations and hope that we keep on track with the WRs and TEs and finally give a good Bench recommendation at QB in Week 14:

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI):  Murray injured his shoulder against Seattle back in Week 11 and has only scored an average of 18.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in that game and the two games since the injury. More distressing for his Dynasty Owners is that he’s only had 15 rushing attempts for 61 rushing yards (4.1 yards per carry) in those three games after starting the season averaging 6.9 yards per carry (87 rushing attempts for 604 rushing yards). The Giants defense has only allowed opposing QBs to run for a total of 107 yards all season. Admittedly, outside of Russell Wilson, they haven’t faced any really good running QBs, but Murray hasn’t run much since his injury. The teams are heading in opposite directions with the Giants on a four game winning streak and the Cardinals having lost three in a row. Each of the Giants’ opponents during their winning streak have scored 20 points or less per game. An injured Murray against a defense playing well seems like a bad combination so keep Murray on your Bench this week.

Giovani Bernard (RB – DAL): Bernard and the Bengals face off against the Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed the second most rushing yards to RBs and had a 100 yard rusher against them in each of the past three weeks. However, Bernard isn’t a traditional between the tackles RB because he gets two-thirds of his fantasy points in the passing game. In that aspect of the game, Dallas is the best, allowing the fewest receptions and receiving yards by RBs (42 receptions for only 240 receiving yards). To top it off, Bernard has faded since the Bengals bye week, scoring just an average of 7.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game after having 24.2 and 22.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first two games replacing Joe Mixon as the lead RB for the Bengals. He’s just the #28 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, but would slot as a RB2 or FLEX after factoring in injures. Don’t do it. Leave Bernard on your Bench this week.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT): There are a lot of pass catchers in the Pittsburgh offense. You’ve got JuJu, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron and even James Washington showed up last week with 2 receptions for 80 yards and a receiving TD. Smith-Schuster, Claypool and Johnson are all similarly ranked in Dynasty Owner at #22, #23 and #25 among WRs. However, Smith-Schuster is the one has been relying on volume more than the others recently as he’s scored 32.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the past three weeks, but needed 19 receptions to do it. His longest reception on the season is just 31 yards and he’s only averaging 8.2 yards per reception for the season and 4.4 yards per reception over the past three weeks. If the volume stops, then so does Smith-Schuster’s fantasy value. That’s concerning so Bench him this week.

Robert Tonyan (TE – GB): Tonyan is in his second stretch of three consecutive games with a TD reception this season and has moved up to be the #4 TE in Dynasty Owner on the season. Back in Week 2, Detroit held Tonyan to 2 receptions for 25 yards, but did allow him to score his first TD of the season. What Detroit didn’t do was stop Aaron Jones and the Green Bay running game as the Packers ran for 259 yards in total with Jones getting 168 yards all by himself. If that happens again and Aaron Rodgers only throws the ball 30 times like he did in Week 2, there won’t be a lot of passes for Tonyan to catch since it seems like every Rodgers’ pass attempt goes to Davante Adams. That doesn’t leave a lot of chances for Tonyan. In fact, he’s only been targeted 36 times in the 9 games he’s played with Adams (4 targets per game). That’s not a lot of opportunities to produce for Tonyan, so be wary about putting him in your Starting lineup and consider having him on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week –

Girthquake vs. CLE Piggy Pauls

It’s the Dynasty Owner playoffs and time to start looking at some must-win games for everyone involved. The first playoff Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week features a team that everyone who listens to the Tuesday podcast should be familiar with, it’s our podcast host and the Voice of Dynasty Owner Seth Kerechanin, Ph.D. and his team CLE Piggy Pauls facing off for the second week in a row against Girthquake. Seth’s road to the playoffs has been rocky, but he made it and his reward is a rematch with the team he defeated just last week by a score of 134.9 to 119.8. The CLE Piggy Pauls are the #4 seed, but were actually outscored over the course of the Dynasty Owner regular season to the tune of nearly 200 points by Girthquake.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, it’s bad news for Girthquake as he’s projected to lose by a score of 120.3-119.7. Let’s check out each team’s Starters and see who’s in there now and if there are any tough decisions that might need to be made over the weekend.

Advantage Girthquake! Girthquake has a 5 point lead from their Starting lineup over Seth’s team. Seth is rolling with his late season pickup QB Taysom Hill this week and has a solid lineup. Girthquake isn’t dominating at any single position, but still has the overall advantage.

The Bench situation is pretty similar, but Girthquake has Christian McCaffrey on his Bench right now, while Seth has Denzel Mims on his Bench. The news that McCaffrey and Mims are out this week should make both of them pull someone off their Practice Squad. That’s not a tough decision, but choosing the right player from the Practice Squad could be. Both teams need to make that decision so they don’t end up costing themselves a playoff victory by taking a zero when they could have someone in there scoring points.

I’m sure this will be a major discussion topic on the Tuesday afternoon live podcast so tune in to find out who wins and advances in the playoffs.

Conclusion

The decisions were tough this week and if you make the correct ones (or had a bye), you get another chance to make those decisions again next week. This week was exceptionally difficult, and things will likely get more difficult as the stakes get higher and higher.

We will feature another playoff Matchup next week so if you want your team to be featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33). You might see your Dynasty Owner playoff team highlighted as the Matchup of the Week. Because of the frozen rosters, there’s no need for the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) put together an article on League Winners and Playoff Predictions that everyone should go check out. Follow all of us as well as Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be the weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) with Seth and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and the weekly podcast series with myself and Tim on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific). Both will be streaming live on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 571 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

League Winners and Playoff Predictions

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

This is what we’ve all been waiting for.  The time has finally come.  We are officially in the Dynasty Owner Playoffs.  Some of you that are reading this have been eliminated from the playoffs and the Chase for the Ring, but there are also many teams who have grinded their way to a shot at the title.  If you have been eliminated, this article may still help you in the short term and here is why…

Don’t forget that the winner and runner up of the Loser’s Bracket receive a prize.  If you are victorious from the loser’s side of the bracket, you will receive a bonus draft pick that will be at the end of the 1st round of the 2021 rookie draft (Pick #13), and one Amnesty Provision.  The runner up in the Loser’s Bracket receives one Amnesty Provision.  The point is that if you have been eliminated from the overall top prize, don’t give up on the season until you have been eliminated from all prizes.

With the Dynasty Owner postseason starting, that means all trades and Free Agent Auction transactions have halted.  You are no longer able to improve your team through outside sources.  Everything that you do to change your team for the rest of the season will have to be internal.  For this reason, I will no longer be talking about trade targets, free agent finds, or under/over owned players.  All of these topics still matter for Dynasty Owner, but they won’t affect how you play for the remainder of the season.  Think about it this way…

We know that Dynasty Owner is the most realistic fantasy platform ever created.  We marry players to their real-life salaries and through that marriage, we can find value that otherwise doesn’t exist on other fantasy sites.  However, once our rosters are locked and we start the postseason, the salaries tend to matter less.  Now that we are entrenched in the playoffs, the best team is going to win their league.  The team with the best players that score the most points is going to win leagues.  It’s actually a very refreshing feeling (at least for me).  We spend all season trying to figure out value and which player’s salary can be moved or traded, but in the playoffs, all we have to worry about is setting our best lineup regardless of the salaries.  So today I present to you…

TheJerk’s League Winners

The League Winners are an assortment of five players that, in my opinion, are going to win Dynasty Owner’s their championship.  As I stated before, your roster is locked so there is no use in looking to trade for any of these players, but if you happen to find them on your roster, they should be started for the duration of your postseason run.

Justin Herbert (4-Years – $6,644,688/YR)

Herbert makes this list as somewhat of a “chalky” pick.  He is currently ranked QB9 on the season in Dynasty Owner, and he is on pace to smash Baker Mayfield’s rookie record of 27 touchdown passes.  He will also, no doubt, make a run for Andrew Luck’s rookie record of 4,374 passing yards.  (Herbert is on pace for 31 touchdown passes and 4,298 passing yards.)  Whether Justin ultimately takes down these records is still to be seen, but, as I stated, he has been just as impressive for Dynasty Owner managers who took a shot on him in the draft.  It’s not a secret that you are starting Herbert every week despite the matchup, but it is nice to know that he (statistically) has the easiest next three weeks of any quarterback in the league.  Let me break it down…

Herbert finishes his fantasy season by playing Atlanta (Week 14), Las Vegas (Week 15) and Denver (Week 16).  All three of these teams have been generous to opposing game managers throughout the season as they all rank bottom third in the NFL for fantasy points given up to quarterbacks.  Denver and Atlanta have been playing better defense as of late, but they are still able to be exploited by this rising young quarterback.  In addition, the game scripts for all three of these games should be in favor of Herbert.  Aside from last week, the Chargers have been very good at keeping games close.  In ten of their twelve games played, they have won or been within one score.  They do not get blown out very often.  In addition, the Falcons and Raiders have won or lost within one score in nine out out of their twelve games.  The Broncos have either won or lost within one score in eight out of their twelve games.  The point is…these next three games for the Chargers should be competitive, and they should be conducive to fantasy production by Herbert.

This is how confident I am in Herbert for your Championship run.  If you told me that I had to pick a single quarterback to start for the next three weeks, (I couldn’t switch him out with a bench quarterback) these are the only players I’d pick over Herbert…

  • Mahomes
  • Wilson
  • Rodgers

That’s the list.

There are quarterbacks I like over Herbert for individual matchups (D. Watson vs Cincinnati in Week 16 for example), but only three that I would take for the remainder of the season.  Despite his last two weeks being two of the worst three weeks of his season, he needs to be started in almost all playoff matchups.  The bold prediction for Herbert is…

Justin Herbert’s Final Three Games:

  • 967 passing yards – 2 INT – 8 passing touchdowns
  • 60 rushing yards – 1 rushing touchdown

Derrick Henry (1-Year – $10,278,000)

Okay, yes, I know that this is an absolute no brainer, but hear me out.  Derrick Henry is going to win a lot of people fantasy championships this year, but he’s also going to do a lot more than that.  Henry is going to be the #1 running back over the next three weeks by a good amount.  Here is where King Henry sits after Week 13…

He is the RB3 on the season for Dynasty Owner.  He trails only Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara.  Henry has 286 touches for 1,419 total yards with 12 touchdowns.  He has four multi score games this season, and I expect that number to rise.  First, I’ll give you Henry’s next three matchups, and then I’ll drop a bold prediction about how he’s going to finish the season.  Henry has the “easiest” next three weeks of any player in the NFL.  When I say easiest, I don’t presume to say that what Henry does is easy.  What I’m saying is that the next three teams he’s playing are all in the bottom fourth of fantasy points given up to opposing running backs.  Henry is about to play Jacksonville (Week 14), Detroit (Week 15), and Green Bay (Week 16).  That is as good as it gets.  For reference, here is what each team has given up on the ground over the past three weeks.

  • Jacksonville: 153 rushing yards/game
  • Detroit: 111 rushing yards/game
  • Green Bay:  126 rushing yards/game

There will be many opportunities for long runs for Henry during these playoffs.  The Titans rank fourth in the NFL in rushing percentage per play at 48.39%.  Henry is an absolute smash play for the rest of the season, and here is my bold prediction on his stat line.

Derrick Henry’s Final Three Games:

  • 68 rushes – 399 total yards – 7 touchdowns

That prediction puts him at 27.3 fantasy points per game, and I think it’s very possible.  Start Henry with confidence and pray that you don’t face the owner that has him.

David Montgomery (4-Years – $1,003,845/YR)

Montgomery has had a high floor, low ceiling season up until Week 12 and 13.  Through his first nine games he averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game.  In those nine games, his lowest performance was 4.2 points, and his highest was 21.7.  Every other game he played in he was somewhere between 7.4 and 18.9 fantasy points.  He has been very reliable.  Well, following Chicago’s Week 11 bye, Montgomery has come out and put up back-to-back 27-point performances.  He is peaking at the perfect time if you own him, and his schedule remains easy throughout Week 17.  Montgomery does not have a “Derrick Henry Cake Walk Schedule”, but he is facing a couple of the most favorable matchups possible.  He is slated to face Houston (Week 14), Minnesota (Week 15), and Jacksonville (Week 16).  I’m not going to go through the whole breakdown like I did with Henry, but none of these three matchups should scare Montgomery owners.  Houston and Jacksonville should be extremely comfortable for Montgomery owners.  Minnesota has been better lately, but they are still a bottom half rush defense.  Montgomery’s production isn’t what worries me.  What I’m concerned about is the chance that Chicago gets down early in a least a couple of these games and abandons the rush.  Even with that possibility, Montgomery has pulled in nine receptions over the past two games.  He should without a doubt be started in all leagues.  Bold predictions for Montgomery…

David Montgomery’s Final Three Games:

  • 52 rushes – 285 total yards – 4 touchdowns

Tee Higgins (4-Years – $2,171,696/YR)

Finally, we have made it to a little deeper of a pick.  Higgins is probably not the first player you would think of when considering a league winning wide receiver.  And let me be clear, I’m not claiming that Higgins is going to jump to Hill or Adams’ type production.  He is on a much less powerful offense than those two players, and he has lost his starting quarterback (Joe Burrow) for the season.  The knee injury that Burrow sustained in Week 12 was very unfortunate to not only the Bengals as a whole, but also to Higgins.  The type of quarterback play that Burrow was displaying is unable to be matched by Brandon Allen, but that’s not to say his receivers can’t be valuable.

Tee Higgins is the WR 28 on the season.  He is averaging just under five receptions and 66 yards per game.  He has also added five touchdowns.  This is a modest stat line for sure, but he has averaged 13.9 fantasy points per game.  This is a very respectable total for a rookie and one that is, frankly, getting overlooked.  Higgins now enters the last three games of the fantasy season with three very tempting matchups.  The Bengals will face Dallas (Week 14), Pittsburgh (Week 15) and Houston (Week 16).  Not only are each of these matchups above average for wide receiver fantasy points (maybe excluding the Steelers), but the game scripts for each game should be equally as good.  My prediction is that Cincinnati finds themselves trailing in all three games, and they may be trailing by quite a bit.  The Bengals are going to have to pass, and they are going to do it a lot.  While I don’t see Higgins as a better receiver than Tyler Boyd (yet), Higgins has kept pace with Boyd’s receptions over the past two weeks.  If you are looking for a rock bottom floor of 10 fantasy points and a ceiling of 25 fantasy points, Higgins is as reliable as you’ll find.  Bold prediction time…

Tee Higgins’ Final Three Games:

  • 17 receptions – 220 total yards – 2 touchdowns

Mike Gesicki (4-Years – $1,652,981/YR)

And now for the final player in our League Winners.  Here is a tight end that I touted all throughout the off season.  I targeted him in every league that I drafted in (including Dynasty Owner), and I was actually able to acquire him in my BETA league draft.  Mike Gesicki is one of the top three most athletic tight ends in the league, but he hasn’t received the volume that fantasy managers would have liked to see.  I don’t think it’s too harsh to say that Gesicki has had a disappointing season so far.  39 receptions through Week 13 is not what Owners expected.  Regardless, he has shown the ability to have league winning games.  In Week 2, Gesicki put up 8-130-1.  In Week 13, he put up 9-88-1.  As I said, Gesicki has shown that he is able to produce dominant fantasy weeks when given the right opportunity, and I think he will be relied on more throughout the next three games.  While none of Gesicki’s remaining matches is particularly favorable for tight end production, I do believe he will have a positive game script in those games.  Miami plays Kansas City (Week 14), New England (Week 15) and Las Vegas (Week 16).  Miami is expected to be losing or, at the very least, keep the game close in all three.  I look for Gesicki to lead the Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards over the fantasy playoffs.  Bold Prediction:

Mike Gesicki’s Final Three Games:

  • 19 receptions – 202 receiving yards – 2 touchdowns

If Mike is able to put up this stat line, he would be averaging 17 fantasy points per game, and would be well above the average tight end production for the season.

Final Thoughts

I want to finish by saying good luck to everyone this week.  Remember, no one has been eliminated from a prize yet.  You may want to give up because you are no longer competing for the Championship, but there is still work to be done.  An extra pick or an Amnesty Provision will go a long way towards rebuilding for next year.  As always, take care and be safe.

-TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 13 Recap: Keep on Playing

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

There were a couple of significant upsets in the NFL this week as the New York Giants defeated the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday and the Washington Football Team took down the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers in the early Monday Night game. The champagne was flowing by the 1972 Dolphins as the last undefeated team left in the NFL lost, thus keeping them as the only undefeated team to win the Super Bowl.

Not only that, but the 0-11 Jets nearly knocked off the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders, losing on a scrambling 46-yard TD pass from Derek Carr to Henry Ruggs III with five seconds left in the game. And the Jacksonville Jaguars who are 1-10 took the Minnesota Vikings to overtime, only to lose 27-24. Two teams with one win combined each almost won. All four of those teams didn’t give up, kept on playing and won (or almost did).

Keeping on playing to win every week is what Dynasty Owners should do as you never know who is going to have a great week or a poor week. One great week from a fringe starter could help your not-so-great team win or a poor week from a star player might lead your seemingly unbeatable team to defeat. We had quite a few upsets in Dynasty Owner this week by teams that could have packed it in and not tried but didn’t and ended up defeating a team far ahead of it in their League standings.  In fact, there were two Dynasty Owner teams in the Top 10 of the Chase for the Ring standings who lost to teams with .500 records.

  • The #4 team in Chase (just wanna win) lost a close 147.9 to 141.4 match-up to The Bluntzworths who came in with only a 6-6 record and were projected to lose by 42.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
  • The #6 team in Chase (Mad Minshew’s Moustache) was defeated 163.5 to 141.2 by the Turd Ferguson’s who had a 6-6 record.

In addition, two other Top 25 Chase teams (ShowMeThemCeedee’s and Yanji) lost to teams with 7-5 records (Furious Ferrets and Judge Jeudy) who they were projected to defeat by nearly 40 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. We also had the #9 Chase team (The Tough Guys) almost lose to a 4-8 team (Str8 Cash Homie) who they were projected to beat by a whopping 78.5 points. The Tough Guys were like the Raiders and barely pulled out a 125.2 to 122.8 victory. Str8 Cash Homie could have won if Lamar Jackson had run in the Ravens’ final TD of the evening instead of J.K. Dobbins, it was that close for them. Congrats as they kept on playing and almost pulled off a huge upset.

Our Dynasty Owner Player of the Week had himself a great game and his team had to keep on playing until the very end of the game to secure their victory, while the Value Player of the Week wouldn’t have won that honor without playing until the end. We’ll name both of them in this recap article, highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out if the teams in our Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week made their League playoffs or not and take our weekly look at the Chase for the Ring standings.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 9th.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our thirteenth and final regular season Dynasty Owner Player of the Week is: Darren Waller

Waller becomes the first TE to win the Player of the Week honor in Dynasty Owner history with his 51.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (13 receptions, 200 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs). He is the first TE to earn the 6-point bonus for a 200-yard receiving game and also set the Dynasty Owner record for most points in a single game by a TE. Even after this great performance, Waller is just the second ranked TE in Dynasty Owner, 47.7 points ahead of T.J. Hockenson in third place, but still 45.5 points behind Travis Kelce. That’s fine with his Dynasty Owners who drafted him, on average, 40 draft positions later than Kelce’s Dynasty Owners did (37.2 ADP for Kelce vs. 77.3 ADP for Waller).

  • Week 13 Points: 51.0
  • 2020 Salary: $7,450,000
  • Cost per Point: $146,078

Congratulations Darren on winning your first Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor and becoming the first TE to win it!

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The thirteenth and final regular season Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week for 2020 is: Aaron Jones

Jones is the poster boy for “keep on playing” this week. He was having an average game until his 77-yard TD run with 2:36 left in the Packers’ 30-16 victory over the Eagles. That one play was worth 15.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy point alone as it pushed him over 100 rushing yards for the game. Overall, he had 25.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (130 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 3 receptions, 18 receiving yards), the lowest number of points in any of his four Value Player of Week performances. Because he kept on playing through the entire game, Jones was able to secure the Value Player of the Week award for himself and his Dynasty Owners.

  • Week 13 Points: 25.8
  • 2020 Salary: $650,484
  • Cost per Point: $25,213

Congratulations Aaron on your second Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor for 2020 and fourth overall in two seasons!

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 13. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Davante Adams or Travis Kelce because barring injury or bye week, both of them should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might be Free Agents or on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 13 when they should have been.

QB: Baker Mayfield (CLE) – 40.8 points

Another week, another player with an incredible first half. Last week, it was Tyreek Hill with 63.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points overall and 45.3 points in the first half alone. This week, it was Baker Mayfield who had 40.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the first half (290 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 3 rushing yards, 1 reception, 6 receiving yards). Unlike Hill, Mayfield didn’t do much in the second half and finished with a total of 40.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (334 passing yards, 4 passing TDs, 5 rushing yards, 1 reception, 6 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost). It wasn’t enough to make him the Player of the Week, but still good enough to be someone who Dynasty Owners should have had in their Starting lineup. That’s just as his Dynasty Owners projected him to be when they drafted him (ADP 57.2), not expecting to get the #20 rated QB right now.

Honorable mention to Derek Carr who had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week than Mayfield, but was likely in more Starting lineups, even after last week’s -1.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance. That’s because he was playing the Jets and predicted to do far better. Carr didn’t disappoint the Dynasty Owners who started him as he had 44.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (381 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 5 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 1 INT). He also got the 3 point clutch scoring bonus for the game-winning TD pass at the end of the game.

RB: Ty Johnson (NYJ) – 21.7 points

The Raiders-Jets game not only featured the near upset by the Jets and the game-winning TD by the Raiders on an ill-fated Jets blitz on the final play, but it also featured an unlikely 100 yard rusher in Ty Johnson. Most fantasy football analysts would have predicted Devontae Booker, playing in place of late first round, early second round (ADP 12.5) Dynasty Owner draft pick Josh Jacobs, to be the backup RB to do so, but it was Johnson. After an injury very early in the game to Frank Gore, Johnson stepped up to score 21.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (104 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards). His low annual salary ($672,976) and ownership (28%) would make him the perfect free agent pickup if there wasn’t a transaction freeze in Dynasty Owner right now. Those of you who have Ty Johnson on your Dynasty Owner roster might be tempted to put him in your Starting lineup in the playoffs after this week’s performance. He should have been there in the last regular season game.

WR: Keke Coutee (HOU) – 24.9 points

With Will Fuller out after receiving a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs on the heels of placing Randall Cobb on Injured Reserve and releasing Kenny Stills, the Texans WR corps was looking a little thin coming into Week 13, but they had to keep playing. Through the first eleven games of the 2020 season, Coutee hadn’t played much, only accounting for 15.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD, 24 return yards, 1 2-pt conversion, 1 fumble – lost). He ended up exceeded those meager stats in Week 13 alone with 24.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (8 receptions, 141 receiving yards, 112 return yards). Coutee should have been in the Starting lineup for his Dynasty Owners.

TE: Dan Arnold (ARI) – 20.1 points

Arnold had quite the efficient Week 13 game against the Los Angeles Rams with 2 receptions on 3 targets for 61 receiving yards and 2 TDs (20.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). He really likes playing against the Rams as the last time he faced them in Week 17 of 2019, he had 17.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 76 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). In the 11 games in between, he only averaged 4.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with a high of 7.9 points back in Week 4. Based on those stats, it’s unlikely that too many of his Dynasty Owners had him in their Starting lineup when they should have done so.

K: Dustin Hopkins (WAS) – 14.0 points

Despite being the kicker for the Washington Football Team all year and the starting kicker since Week 2 of 2015, Hopkins is only owned in 42% of Dynasty Owner leagues. That is despite his $2.48 million salary only ranking 18th among all kickers. So far this season, he’s performed as expected since he was drafted 29th on average (ADP 251.1) and is currently the #26 ranked kicker in Dynasty Owner. He easily exceeded his average of 5.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in Week 13 with 14.0 points. He had 3 FGs of between 40 and 49 yards (two 45 yarders and one 49 yarder) plus 2 PATs and should have been in your Starting lineup.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one player who probably was in your Starting lineup but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few, none or negative Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in Week 13.

QB: Justin Herbert (LAC) – 4.4 points

Herbert played the entire game in the Chargers 45-0 loss to the New England Patriots and threw more passes (53) than in any other game in his rookie season. It didn’t matter as he only scored a total of 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (209 passing yards, 2 INTs) for all of that effort. Facing a Bill Belichick coached team will do that to a rookie. Prior to Week 13, his worse game was back in Week 3 versus Carolina when he had just 18.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Herbert was averaging 30.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in his ten starts prior to Week 13 and had more than 25.0 points in eight of those games. He was worthy of starting pretty much every week until this week when his Dynasty Owners would have been better off leaving him on the Bench or Practice Squad.

RB: Miles Sanders (PHI) – 3.1 points

When his Dynasty Owners drafted Miles Sanders, they fully expected to be playing him in every single game, except his bye week. That’s what to expect when a player has an ADP of 13.9. He’s been just ok when healthy in 2020, averaging just 13.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game prior to Week 13 when he had his worst game of the season with just 31 rushing yards (3.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). It’s difficult to imagine having your first or second round draft pick on the Bench, but that’s where Sanders should have been.

Dishonorable mention to Clyde Edwards-Helaire who was active for the Chiefs game versus Denver but didn’t play a single snap and thus got his Dynasty Owners a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). After the game, Chiefs Coach Andy Reid said that Edwards-Helaire was only active as an emergency option. This enraged a nation of his fantasy owners who put him in their Starting lineups upon the news that he would be active in Week 13. Kudos to those of you who either ignored this news and left him on your Bench or Practice Squad or didn’t see it and just left him there because you weren’t sure if he would play. Either way you made the correct choice to have Edwards-Helaire on your Bench or Practice Squad.

WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) – 3.4 points

After Week 13, McLaurin is the #15 WR in Dynasty Owner, but was in the Top 10 before this week’s 3.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (2 receptions, 14 receiving yards). It wasn’t for a lack of trying to get him the ball as he was targeted six times in the Football Team’s upset victory. Despite missing their top RB in Antonio Gibson and McLaurin’s lack of production, the Football Team kept playing and were able to defeat the previously undefeated Steelers. His team produced a victory, but McLaurin didn’t have a lot of Dynasty Owner fantasy points and would have been better on your Bench or Practice Squad than in your Starting lineup.

TE: Hunter Henry (LAC) – 1.5 points

The Blutarsky streak at TE ends at three as no top ranked TE had 0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week. Hunter Henry was the worst of the likely Starting TEs with just 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 5 yards) in the Chargers’ loss to the Patriots. Despite a season worst game, Henry is still the #6 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner and generally a week in and week out starting TE. Not this past week as he should have been sitting on your Bench or on your Practice Squad.  

K: Will Lutz (NO) – 1.0 points

Lutz carries a salary of $4.05 million annually for each of the next four Dynasty Owner seasons. At that price, he probably should be in your Starting lineup every week and in the Saints’ first 11 games of the 2020 season, he had performed very well, making 20 out of 22 FGs and all 38 PAT attempts. He remained perfect on PATs going 3 for 3 but missed his only FG attempt of 40 yards to garner only 1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for his owners. Unfortunately for those Dynasty Owners who had him in their Starting lineup, that was his worst game and one in which he should have been on the Bench or Practice Squad.

Dishonorable mention to three kickers who probably weren’t in many Starting lineups based on their performances this season, but still deserve to be mentioned because they all put up negative points in Week 13. Randy Bullock of the Cincinnati Bengals, Greg Zuerlein of the Dallas Cowboys and Michael Badgley of the Los Angeles Chargers all missed at least one FG each. Bullock had a made PAT and a missed 53-yard FG for -1.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Zuerlein missed three out of his four FG attempts (misses of 40, 52 and 53 yards) to go along with one made FG of 31 yards and 2 made PATs for -2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Badgley had the worst game with -4.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from a missed FG of 46 yards and a blocked FG attempt from 57 yards that was returned by New England for a TD. Hopefully, there aren’t any Dynasty Owners out there with two or even all three of them on their roster who were forced to have one of them in their Starting lineup.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week Recap –

Cap Casualties vs. Squirrel Master

Squirrel Master was able to defeat Cap Casualties by a 148.5 to 122.6 score and claim the sixth spot in their League playoffs with a sub-.500 record. Cap Casualties ended up with the same record as Squirrel Master but just out of the playoff hunt in eighth place. Vampire Facials also made the playoffs despite losing to Tafoya as both of these teams finished 6-7. Vampire Facials had the most points out of the 6-7 teams and finished in fifth place. Tafoya missed out on the playoffs by just over 20 points and earned the top spot in the tournament for the extra draft pick.

As we look to the playoffs in this league, we see Top 25 Chase regular BluecivicJJ sitting in third place in this League and looking at a first-round playoff match versus Squirrel Master. We’ll find out if Squirrel Master will keep on playing to pull off the upset and eliminate a contender from the Chase.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

The Dynasty Owner regular season ended this week with little change at the Top of the Chase for the Ring standings. Barbee Kilgore retains the top spot, while Quaranteed for Greatness holds on to second place.

There was slight movement among the rest of the Top 5 among All Might, just wanna win and Bayside Tigers. Out of the Top 10, only one new team appeared (HawkNation in the #10 spot) with Gabagool dropping out.

We may not see much movement again in Week 14 as most of the teams in the Chase standings should have first round byes in the Dynasty Owner playoffs. After that, more teams will lose and drop out of the running since you need to win your League to win the Ring.

Conclusions

The Dynasty Owner playoffs start in Week 14 and as we’ve seen from Week 13 anything can happen on a weekly basis in the NFL and Dynasty Owner. The loser’s bracket tournament for the extra first round draft pick (#13) also starts in Week 14 as well and every team in that tournament has a chance. They just need to keep on playing and try their best to win to grab that extra pick. There’s at least one more week for everyone to keep on playing Dynasty Owner in 2020 and hopefully more.

Right now, we are expecting to be back to our usual Tuesday recap article and Friday preview articles for the Dynasty Owner playoffs. Even if there are game delays, we’ll keep on publishing articles. Please read the Week 14 preview article to see how my Week 13 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in the first round of the playoffs and loser’s bracket tournament. We have an article on League Winners and Playoff Predictions from Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) as well this week. Three weeks without transactions means that we won’t have the regular weekly look at Free Agent Auction targets from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but he’ll be back. Be sure to follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter to read what we’re writing and tweeting.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer is live at 1 PM on Wednesday. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is up to 570 subscribers on YouTube. All of this great content is available to help you win your first round matchup or continue your quest to make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 13 Preview – Frozen

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Let it go! Let it go! I’ll stop there because I can imagine every Dynasty Owner with children might have that song from Frozen in their heads now. For that, I apologize. However, frozen is what your Dynasty Owner roster will become in just a couple of days. No more adding players from the Free Agent Auction. No more trades. That’s it, whoever you have on your roster as for this week’s games is who you ride with through your league playoffs (or the loser’s bracket) for the next three weeks. Hope you like your team because those guys are who you have for a while.

Let’s quickly go through a checklist of what you need if you want to win your League title or the Loser’s Bracket to get that coveted extra first round draft pick:

  • Three starting QBs in case one gets injured, or at least a handcuff for your top QB if by chance, he’s suddenly out;
  • Three starting kickers, which is less important than three QBs, but still important because nobody wants to lose their League title or that extra pick because they didn’t have a Bench kicker;
  • Plenty of depth at RB, WR and TE on your Practice Squad to weather an injury (or two) to your Starters or Bench; and
  • Enough snacks and drinks for football watching over the next three weeks

The last bullet point isn’t critical. Unless you live somewhere cold and the weather’s getting more and more frozen as the days are getting shorter. Nobody wants to run to the grocery store or 7-Eleven for snacks in the cold every day there’s a game on. That’s a lot of days in the upcoming weeks! This week alone, there are games on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday plus the next couple of Thursdays, a few Saturday games in Weeks 15 and 16 and finally the Week 16 Christmas Day Friday game. That’s a lot of starting up the car in the cold to run out for snacks and drinks, so stock up now.

One thing that’s definitely not frozen yet are all of the playoff berths in many leagues. There are spots to be won and lost and Week 14 byes to be secured. We were hoping to highlight a head-to-head match-up in which the winner makes the playoffs, while the loser doesn’t, but it was pretty hard to find. In plenty of leagues, the playoff match-ups aren’t finalized, but teams need to win and have another team lose to make it. It’s not an easy as “win and you’re in” for a lot of Dynasty Owners, which is good and should lead to a lot of excitement for Dynasty Owners in the playoff hunt. It’s that way in both of my leagues as well as another beta league with the teams featured in our Match-up of the Week.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 4th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 12 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Daniel Jones – 12.5 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: Frank Gore – 11.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Jalen Reagor – 4.1 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Austin Hooper – 9.3 (Just Ok recommendation)

A slightly below average Week 12 with three Just Ok recommendations and no Good recommendations, but only one Bad one. Believe it or not, despite only scoring 12.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, the Daniel Jones recommendation was really Just Ok as ten other starting QBs had fewer points than he did. Gore had 21 touches, but only 11.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which was enough to make him a low-end RB2. Austin Hooper had a TD catch, but not much else as he scored 9.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, putting him close, but just outside of the Top 12 TEs for the week. The only Bad recommendation was Jalen Reagor who failed to take advantage of the Seattle secondary and only scored 4.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. We’ve had more Bad than Good recommendations this year, but our final record isn’t frozen just yet, so let’s move on to the Week 13 recommendations:

Mitchell Trubisky (QB – CHI): Out of the two Bears QBs this season, Trubisky has been the better one for Dynasty Owners. Both are roughly the same salary ($8 million for Foles vs. $7.258 million for Trubisky), but Trubisky has scored just under 22.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his four starts compared to 15.6 points per start for Foles. Trubisky is scoring roughly the same number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points as some QBs with much higher salaries, such as Matthew Stafford ($25 million) and Teddy Bridgewater ($21 million). Way back in Week 1, Trubisky led the Bears on a tremendous comeback with 3 TD passes in the fourth quarter of the Bears 27-24 victory over the Lions. It was a 34.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance for him and now in Week 13, he gets to face the Lions again. The Lions have only caused 11 turnovers this season, which should help Trubisky who has 9 turnovers (5 INTs and 4 fumbles) in only four games. Trubisky might not score 34.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points again, but he should put up enough points to be a Starter this week.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL): Lost in the whole Ravens COVID-19 outbreak in Week 12 was the breakout game in Week 11 for rookie J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins had his best game of the season with 18.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and looked like he was ready to be the top RB for the Ravens in Week 12. Then he tested positive for COVID-19 and sat out the game. A game in which Ravens RB Gus Edwards gained only 10 yards on 9 carries plus a TD for a total of 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Dobbins is back to face Dallas in Week 13 and after Edwards’ lack of production versus Pittsburgh, he should be the top RB. Dallas has given up the second most yards to RBs per game (130.7 yards per game) and an average of 4.8 yards per carry to RBs. They were shredded by Antonio Gibson of the Football Team on Thanksgiving to the tune of 115 yards and 3 rushing TDs, not to mention the 57 yards that Gibson’s teammate Peyton Barber added on. Even though he’s just the #41 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, Dobbins should be in your Starting lineup.

Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG): Steady, but not spectacular is the best description for Sterling Shepard this season. He has scored over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in six out of the seven games he has played this season, but never over 20.0 points. Since returning in Week 7 from injury, he has no less than 6 receptions in any game, but only one TD. At this point in the season, he’s the #63 ranked WR and probably has been sitting on your Dynasty Owner Bench or languishing on the Free Agent Auction because of his $10.25 million annual salary for four years. Even if Giants QB Daniel Jones doesn’t play, Shepard should do well against the Seattle pass defense that is the worst in the NFL against WR, giving up an average of 20 receptions and 240 yards per game to opposing WRs. Start Shepard if you have him on your Dynasty Owner roster and consider picking him up for this week and the playoffs before the transaction freeze kicks in.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): Picking a TE in this spot wasn’t easy, but here goes with Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki who should be worth a start against a Bengals defense that has allowed more receiving yards (718) to TEs than any other team. They have allowed double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points to seven different TEs, including three TEs outside of the top 12 (Trey Burton, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku). Gesicki has been better in the seven games started by Ryan Fitzpatrick (9.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and three TDs) than in the four games started by Tua Tagovailoa (5.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and no TDs). He’s not the only Dolphins TE and Fitzpatrick may not start this week, but go with Gesicki in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 12 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Aaron Rodgers – 35.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Melvin Gordon – 3.1 (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Mike Evans – 20.0 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Jonnu Smith – 0.0 (Good recommendation)

A split decision in Week 12 with two Good recommendations and two Bad ones. It was the second week in a row and third time this season that Rodgers has turned in a good performance when recommended as a Bench option. Mike Evans had two TDs, so the recommendation to Bench him as well was Bad. On the positive side,  the recommendations to Bench Melvin Gordon and Jonnu Smith were Good as Gordon had just 3.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Smith had a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). That’s two Good Bench RB recommendations in a row. With the playoffs near and the transaction freeze coming soon, it’s time to step it up with these recommendations of guys to Bench in Week 13.

Josh Allen (QB – BUF): It would have been crazy to put Allen here after the first four weeks of the season when he was averaging 40.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, the season’s stats didn’t freeze after four weeks and since then, he’s been slightly above average (25.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game), but with four games of under 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points mixed in. This includes last week when he had a passing and a rushing TD, but only scored 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Chargers. Now, he gets to play against the 49ers defense that just got Richard Sherman back from Injured Reserve, held Jared Goff to 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week and only let the Saints QBs score a combined 12.1 points in Week 10. That seems like the type of combination that should worry Allen’s Dynasty Owners and make them Bench him for a better option.

Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI): Drake is coming off one of his best performances of the year after scoring two TDs and 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against New England, so benching him after that seems like a curious suggestion. However, after Drake had 2 TDs and 30.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Dallas back in Week 6, he followed it up with just 5.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 7 versus Seattle. Unfortunately for Drake and his Dynasty Owners, their opponent this week are the Los Angeles Rams, who are one of the better run defenses in the NFL. They only allow 3.8 yards per carry to RBs and held San Francisco RBs to 3.4 yards per carry last week and Tampa Bay RBs to 2.4 yards per carry the week before that. Arizona will likely rely on Kyler Murray more this week and less on the running game, which is where Drake does most of his damage. Bench him this week.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): The Football Team is not in an enviable position this week having to face the Pittsburgh Steelers just five days after Coach Mike Tomlin ripped them for a poor game in a win over the Baltimore Ravens. That defense will likely be fired up to play. They already have one of the top defenses in the league and league the NFL in sacks with 41. This will make it difficult for QB Alex Smith to sit back in the pocket and find open receivers downfield, which will make him check down even more than he usually does and keep his passing numbers pretty low. That’s not good for McLaurin who has accumulated 46% of the Football Team’s receiving yards this season (highest in the NFL). Bench McLaurin against the Pittsburgh defense.

Hunter Henry (TE – LAC): The AFC West has some pretty good TEs. All four starters are ranked in the Top 15 TEs with Noah Fant of the Broncos being the lowest at #15. Travis Kelce of the Chiefs is the clear top TE and Darren Waller of the Raiders is second this year, while Hunter Henry comes in sixth place. The Patriots have done a good job against these TEs so far this year – allowing Kelce to only score 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, his second worst game of the season and Waller to get just 2.9 points in his worst game of the year. Fant did not play in the game against New England. While the Patriots defense has struggled recently against Mark Andrews of the Ravens and Jordan Akins of the Texans, they did hold Kyler Murray to his worst game of the season last week and should be able to handle Justin Herbert. That means a bad game for Henry and a spot on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week –

Cap Casualties vs. Squirrel Master

The final regular season Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week for the 2020 season is a beta league battle between a pair of teams who should make the playoffs with a victory, but only one of them is guaranteed to do so. Cap Casualties are 6-6 on the season and hold down the sixth and final spot in their League playoffs, while their opponent, Squirrel Master, is 5-7 and just behind them in seventh place. One of them is going to win and if it’s Cap Casualties, they are in the playoffs. If Squirrel Master wins, then it comes down to what happens in other League games.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, Squirrel Master should defeat Cap Casualties, leaving both teams with 6-7 records and throwing the playoff battle into complete chaos. Cap Casualties does have to fill two spots in their Starting lineup and Bench, but even if they do, it might not be enough to defeat the Squirrel Master. If Squirrel Master wins, we could see any number of teams make the playoffs.

That’s because there is another team in the League at 6-6 (Vampire Facials) who play one of the three teams with a 5-7 record (Tafoya). Two other teams (Jazz and CyberFire) also have an outside chance at the playoffs at 5-7. With playoff berths possible, all of these teams could be making moves to position their team to either make a playoff run or put their best foot forward in the Loser’s bracket for the extra first round pick. All of them have a few days before the transaction freeze kicks in to figure out what to do.

Check the recap article to find out who wins and if they make the playoffs.

Conclusion

Your Dynasty Owner roster may be temporarily frozen soon, but the NFL and Dynasty Owner games continue on this week and for the rest of December. You can still make those Free Agent Auction bids and trades after this week; they just won’t process until after the Dynasty Owner playoffs are finished. Whether you’re already in the playoffs and trying to clinch a Week 14 bye, fighting for a playoff spot like our teams in the Matchup of the Week, or just trying to improve your team for next year, these next couple of days should be interesting.

We will feature a playoff Matchup next week so if your team fights its way into the playoffs, has a game next week and you want to be featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33). You might see your Dynasty Owner team highlighted as the Matchup of the Week. Because of the frozen rosters, there’s no need for the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but I’m sure he and Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) will find something to write to help you with your Dynasty Owner team once rosters are unfrozen. Follow all of us as well as Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be the weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) with Seth and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and the weekly podcast series with myself and Tim on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific). Both will be streaming live on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 570 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Blind Player Comparisons: Over Owned Players

By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrisson (@DynastyJerk)

Well, we have yet another odd occurrence that the 2020 NFL season has brought us. While Wednesday games are rare, this isn’t the first time the NFL has been played on a Wednesday. It’s actually far from the first time. Did you know that the first night game in NFL history occurred on a Wednesday night in 1929?  Oddly enough, the Pittsburgh Steelers inaugural game was played on a Wednesday. (They were called the Pittsburgh Pirates) So yes, while this is a strange day to play professional football, the move is not unprecedented. Of course, this game (like all games this year) still has conditions with it.

There is a very decent chance that you are reading this article while the final game of Week 12 is being played. For this obvious reason, if a Steelers’ player is included in any of these blind comparisons, their Week 12 game will not count towards their overall stats.

Before I jump into the meat of the article, I want to make it known that my goal is not to roast any Owner who still owns one of these “over owned players.”  I can honestly say that since joining Dynasty Owner, I’ve played with some of the smartest fantasy managers I’ve ever known. Don’t let my opinion be the only thing that sways you from keeping or cutting a player as every team is built differently. Maybe some of these players fit perfectly into your plan. My goal in this exercise is to once again show how big names and draft equity can start to form biases that we don’t necessarily even know we’ve accepted. Without further ado, let’s talk about some players that, in my opinion, should be owned in less leagues than they currently are.

Quarterbacks

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?      

Player A (Alpha):

  • Between 25 – 32 years old
  • 20.8 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 2,541 passing yards – 16 touchdowns – 15 INT – 10 fumbles
  • 258 rushing yards – 5 rushing touchdowns
  • Salary is over $30,000,000 per year

Player B (Bravo):

  • Between 35 – 42 years old
  • 25.9 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 2,534 passing yards – 24 touchdowns – 5 INT – 3 fumbles
  • 14 rushing yards – 0 rushing touchdowns
  • Salary is over $30,000,000 per year

I’ll take Bravo. There’s no reason not to, right?  He is averaging more than five additional points/game compared to Alpha, and he is making roughly the same amount of money.

Alpha’s team is 25th in points per game. Bravo’s team is 4th in points per game. That’s a good sign that Bravo is on a “high power” offence and has no trouble putting themselves in scoring situations.

Let me tell you the ownership percentage of each player and you tell me if you think that is reasonable…

  • Alpha is owned in 51.6 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues.
  • Bravo is owned in 13.4 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues.

That doesn’t seem right, does it?  The clearly superior quarterback (making the same money) is owned far less than the inferior quarterback. You may say that this season is just too small of a sample size, and you could be right. Let’s take a look at Alpha and Bravo’s last full season prior to 2020.

Alpha’s Last Full Season:

  • 22.6 fantasy points/game
  • 4,039 passing yards – 27 touchdowns – 7 INT – 16 fumbles

Bravo’s Last Full Season:

  • 27.5 fantasy points/game
  • 5,129 passing yards – 34 touchdowns – 16 INT – 7 fumbles

Okay, maybe the answer isn’t that we are looking at too small a sample size. Alpha has been subpar to Bravo over the last (healthy) season and a half. So why the gap in ownership percentage?

The real question is why is Carson Wentz (Alpha) owned 38 percent more than Ben Roethlisberger (Bravo)?  I propose that the answer is a combination of two reasons. First, Wentz (27) is far younger than Big Ben (38). Wentz should be playing in this league longer than Ben, and that youth is valuable. Second, Wentz’ ADP was 124 coming into the season where Ben went undrafted in most leagues.

In other words, the majority of Wentz’ owners are still holding onto him despite better quarterback options available in the Free Agent Auction. I have been a strong advocate for saving your Amnesty Provisions and not using them frugally, but Wentz is the perfect amnesty candidate. It’s time to let go and pick up a more reliable quarterback even if that replacement also costs over 30 million dollars per year.

Running Back

Due to the scarcity of the position, it was challenging to find a good running back comparison. In the end, I had to settle on one, but hopefully you enjoy trying to guess the players.

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

Player C (Charlie):

  • 26 years old
  • 10.6 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 16.3 fantasy points/game over the past five games (since he was named the starting RB)
  • 93 rushes – 369 yards – 6 touchdowns
  • 16 receptions – 72 yards – 0 touchdowns
  • All six touchdowns came in the last five games

Player D (Delta):

  • 23 years old
  • 5.6 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 47 rushes – 175 yards – 1 touchdown
  • 14 receptions – 152 yards – 1 touchdown

There is pretty good evidence that Charlie should be your choice at least for this year. There are however a couple of questions I’d like answered prior to picking for sure.

First, are Charlie and Delta currently both the lead backs on their team?

  • Charlie is currently the lead back on his team, but he has a veteran running back (possibly) returning in Week 13. Even with the possible return, Charlie has been playing well enough over the past five games that the backfield may be his for the rest of the season.
  • Delta is not the lead back on his team. In fact, he is currently third on his team in fantasy points, and overall touches. Delta’s usage this year has been disappointing, but it’s understandable with a couple of more talented running backs also on the team.

Second, what are the salaries for Charlie and Delta?

  • Charlie’s salary is a little over $700,000 for one more year.
  • Delta’s salary is a little over $1,600,000 for two more years.

Have you made up your mind?  Do you have a final answer?  Well, I’ll give you one more piece of information before you decide…

  • Charlie’s ADP coming into this season was 244, and the only reason that he rose to the ranks of “weekly starter” is because two running backs above him on the depth chart are both on IR. This isn’t to take anything away from Charlie. He has produced when called upon, but it’s hard to see this amount of volume and production continuing past 2020.
  • Delta is firmly entrenched as the third running back on his team. There is a chance one of the backs ahead of him retires or changes teams next year, but even still, he would not be the most talented or athletic running back for the team.

My final answer is Charlie. I would prefer to take the volume and touchdown upside this year as opposed to a possible dynasty sleeper.

Charlie is Wayne Gallman and Delta is Kerryon Johnson. I know. These aren’t big names or players who will lead anyone to a championship, but it is interesting to compare them. The most interesting part of the comp is the fact that Gallman is 95.9 percent owned in DO while Kerryon is 99 percent owned. (I told you it wasn’t going to be the most dramatic comparison.) 

The point remains though. Why is Kerryon rostered in 3 percent more leagues than Gallman?  The answer I’m sure has something to do with the fact that Kerryon began the year rostered in 100 percent of leagues, and Gallman was rostered in very few. Simply put, they haven’t caught up to each other yet. I wouldn’t say that Kerryon is over owned, because most running backs with his salary and play time should always be owned. I would say that if you happen to be in one of the leagues in which Gallman is unowned then you need to pick him up immediately.

Wide Receiver

This next set of players involves a player that I had in a DO league. I dropped him three weeks ago in my league, and I honestly think I held onto him too long. Here we go…

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

Player E (Echo):

  • 31 years old
  • 7.9 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 33 receptions – 408 yards – 1 touchdown
  • Preseason ADP: 136.2

Player F (Foxtrot):

  • 26 years old
  • 7.9 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 32 receptions – 300 yards – 2 touchdowns
  • Preseason ADP: 268.2

There is half a decade age difference between Echo and Foxtrot, but that seems to be the only real difference. Both receivers are obviously low tier options as less than eight fantasy points/game is not desirable. In fact, Echo and Foxtrot are WR 70 and WR 81, respectively, on the season. The draft equity spent on Echo is obviously much more than Foxtrot as, on average, he was drafted 11 rounds earlier.

How about we add the fact that Echo costs $13,000,000 per year for one more year, and Foxtrot costs less than $2,500,000 per year for one more year. Wow, that makes a big difference. I bet you’re asking yourself, “there’s a wide receiver in the NFL that makes 14 million dollars per year and only has 7.9 fantasy points/game?  That player must be barely owned.”  Well, you would be incorrect. T.Y. Hilton is owned in 61.9 percent of DO leagues. 61.9 PERCENT? 

When preparing for this article, I would have guessed Hilton was less than 15 percent owned. Other players that slide into this “high salary, over owned” group include AJ Green (50 percent), Sammy Watkins (67 percent) and Odell Beckham (80 percent). It is understandable why all of these players continue to be over 50 percent owned. They are big names that all were drafted for a reason, and Owners continue to hang on to the idea they may return to past glory. Well, here is my hard truth. With the exception of Odell, all of these players should be dropped from most rosters. The large contracts are weighing down your team’s options, and you are losing valuable value along the way. Like I said, I haven’t lost all hope in OBJ, and I would consider holding him for next year.

Regardless, Echo is T.Y. Hilton and Foxtrot is Demarcus Robinson. I included Robinson in this comp for the fact that his salary is six times less than Hilton’s, yet he has averaged the same number of fantasy points per game. If that wasn’t bad enough, Robinson is only owned in 48 percent of leagues compared to Hilton’s 61.9 percent. Unreal.

This isn’t me showing my love for Demarcus Robinson. I don’t own him in any league, and I honestly don’t care to. However, I would own him well before I owned Hilton, especially in Dynasty Owner.

Tight End

The tight end position has been an absolute wasteland this year with Kelce, Waller and Hockenson being the exceptions. If you can own a cheap tight end that has an above average chance to score in any given game, then you are probably pretty happy. That being said, here is a decent comparison involving an over-owned tight end.

Who would you rather have in Dynasty Owner?

Player G (Golf):

  • 27 years old
  • 8 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 28 receptions – 322 yards – 3 touchdowns

Player H (Hotel):

  • 27 years old
  • 9.2 fantasy points/game in 2020
  • 35 receptions – 359 yards – 4 touchdowns

Both tight ends are the same age and their production this season is roughly equal. I would consider both of these players “touchdown dependent”. If you take away their touchdowns, they would be averaging 6.2 (Golf) and 6.8 (Hotel) fantasy points/game. By comparison, if you took away Kelce, Waller and Hockenson’s touchdowns, they would be averaging 15.6, 10.5, and 9.8 fantasy points per game. I know it’s unfair to compare Golf and Hotel to the top three tight ends in fantasy, but it proves the point that without a touchdown in any given week, Golf and Hotel are giving you un-startable performances. As I said earlier, there really is no stability with the tight end position.

What’s worse is the fact that Golf and Hotel both cost at least $6,000,000 per year. Six million or more for a tight end that will get you eight to nine points on average. That’s rough, but it’s also the reality of the position.

Getting back to the over owned portion of the comp…What would you guess is the ownership percentage of Golf and Hotel?  Expensive contracts and middle of the road production.

I know that I know the answers, but I would have given an honest guess around 30 – 40 percent owned. The correct answer is 91.8 percent (Golf) and 82.5 percent (Hotel). That’s right, Tyler Higbee is nearly 92 percent owned, and Eric Ebron is nearly 83 percent owned. Now, I’m not saying these players shouldn’t be owned. If they fit your team construction and you can afford them, then they are certainly keeping your head above water for their position. What I am saying is that they are over owned compared to tight ends with similar production and a fraction of the salary. Here is a non-comprehensive list of cheap tight ends that have similar ownership percentages that I would love to own over Higbee and Ebron…

  • Logan Thomas ($3,072,500, 93.8%)
  • Richard Rodgers ($910,000, 44.3%)
  • Jordan Reed ($1,050,000, 82.5%)

It’s also worth noting that Ebron is owned in less leagues than Higbee which is most likely (once again) due to the fact that Higbee was drafted well ahead of Ebron, and Hibgee’s owners have not yet jumped ship for a different tight end.

Thank you for reading my articles and for the overall interest and support in Dynasty Owner. I’ve said it before, but Dynasty Owner is the most unique fantasy platform I’ve ever participated in, and I truly believe it will become the number one fantasy site in the world. Thanks again to everyone. Stay safe and Happy Holidays.

TheJerk

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Week 12 Recap: Close Games and Blowouts

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

We’ve had 15 games played this week and 13 of them were either a close game decided by a FG or less, or a blowout in which one team won by two TDs or more. Six games were decided by three or fewer points with a one-point win for the Vikings over the Panthers (28-27) and two games decided by two points (Giants over the Bengals 19-17 and Browns over the Jaguars 27-25). Starting on Thanksgiving with victories of 25 points by the Football Team and 16 points by the Texans, there were seven blowouts with a margin of victory of 16 points or more. The widest margin of victory was 37 points (Falcons over the Raiders 43-6). The Monday Night Football game had a margin of victory of six points after the Eagles late TD and two-point conversion, while the only Sunday game that didn’t fall into either category was the Bills-Chargers game that finished with a 27-17 score and the Chargers with the ball on the Bills’ one-yard line.

Despite the week not being finished, we have a good sense of the final scores in most Dynasty Owner matchups and final scores in a few. Looking at the Chase for the Ring, there were several blowout victories including two Chase teams who won by over 100 points against opponents with winning records. We also had some very close games, even among Chase teams. The current #5 team (All Might) has just a 2.3-point advantage over the Average Joes, but Average Joes still have Eric Ebron left on their Bench. Even if Ebron goes scoreless, it’ll be close.  There were also two games in the “expert” league that came down to the wire with Dynasty Owner Tim beating Jerry from Rotowire by 5.5 points on Richard Rodgers’ 33-yard TD reception (a catch worth 10.3 points) with only seconds left on Monday night. Another “expert” league match-up was decided by just 2.2 points. The Match-up of the Week isn’t quite over yet either but is going to be a close game as well.

Both close victories and blowouts are represented in our Players of the Week. The Dynasty Owner Player of the Week got his points in a blowout, while the Value Player of the Week was in a close game. We’ll name both of them, highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out who won the close Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week and take our weekly look at the Chase for the Ring standings.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3-point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 1st. The Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens game originally scheduled for Thanksgiving night, then rescheduled to Tuesday and now scheduled to be played on Wednesday afternoon, is not included in this recap.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our twelfth Dynasty Owner Player of the Week for the season is: Tyreek Hill

Hill wins his first ever Player of the Week honor in a blowout by scoring a Dynasty Owner record 63.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (13 receptions, 269 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs). Deshaun Watson was the closest player to Hill in scoring this week and he had 45.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 18.6 fewer points than Hill. Hill had 45.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions, 203 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs plus the 6-point bonus for 200 receiving yards) in the first half alone. The previous full game scoring record was 62.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points set by Aaron Rodgers back in Week 7 of 2019. Hill’s performance this week makes him the top WR in Dynasty Owner with 265.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, 37.3 more than Davante Adams in second place. Dynasty Owners won’t mind paying Hill’s $18 million annual salary if he continues to have weeks like this one in the Dynasty Owner playoffs.

  • Week 12 Points: 63.9
  • 2020 Salary: $18,000,000
  • Cost per Point: $281,690

Congratulations Tyreek on winning your first Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor and setting the record for the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a single week.

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The twelfth Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week for 2020 is: James Robinson

Robinson started training camp as an undrafted rookie free agent with a salary of only $763,333 annually. Now after Week 12, he is the #4 RB in Dynasty Owner with 207.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, an average of 18.8 points per game. He has two games with over 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points so far this season but had yet to win the Value Player of the Week award. In both of those 30.0+ point games, he was edged out by someone with slightly better value for the week (Alvin Kamara in Week 3 and Jeffrey Wilson in Week 7). This week, nobody edged him out as he had 28.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (128 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 5 receptions, 31 receiving yards) in the Jaguars’ close 27-25 loss to the Browns. That’s just his third best game of the season, but good enough for his first Value Player of the Week honor.

  • Week 12 Points: 28.9
  • 2020 Salary: $763,333
  • Cost per Point: $26,413

Congratulations James on your first, but likely not last, Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor!

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 12. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Patrick Mahomes or Derrick Henry because barring injury or bye week, both of them should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might be Free Agents or on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 12 when they should have been.

QB: Kirk Cousins (MIN) – 38.2 points

Believe it or not, but Kirk Cousins is currently a Top 12 QB in Dynasty Owner after Week 12. He had his best performance of the 2020 season with 38.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (307 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 19 rushing yards, 1 2-pt conversion, 1 fumble – lost) in the Vikings 28-27 close victory over the Carolina Panthers. This includes the 3-point clutch scoring bonus for his 10 yard TD pass with under one minute left in the game. Cousins has averaged 30.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the past four weeks to move up to being the #11 QB in Dynasty Owner. However, he is only owned in 1% of Dynasty Owner leagues because of his $33 million annual salary. If you are one of the few Dynasty Owners with Cousins on your roster, hopefully you had him in your Starting lineup this week.

RB: Latavius Murray (NO) – 26.6 points

Alvin Kamara is still the #1 RB in Dynasty Owner after this week’s 6.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in the Saints’ Week 12 blowout of the Broncos, but he wasn’t even the top RB on his own team this week. That was Latavius Murray who had his second two TD game of the 2020 season and also surpassed 100 rushing yards to score 26.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (124 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 reception, 2 receiving yards). Even after this week, Murray is still just the #28 RB in Dynasty Owner. However, he should have been in your Starting lineup this week in general and even in place of Kamara if you drafted Murray as a handcuff and have both of them on your roster.

WR: Collin Johnson (JAX) – 19.6 points

Injuries to top Jaguars WR D.J. Chark as well as Chris Conley provided an opportunity for another Jacksonville WR to step up in Week 12. Collin Johnson was the player who did so with a 19.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (4 receptions, 96 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). He had nearly as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week (19.6) than he had through the first ten games of the season (19.9). Normally, that would make a player a top target in the Free Agent Auction and probably #1 on @Jaypoundsee Week 13 Free Agent Auction Target list, but Johnson is already owned in 53% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Those Dynasty Owners were highly unlikely to have put Johnson in their Starting lineup this week, even though it would have been the right move.

TE: Kyle Rudolph (MIN) – 13.8 points

Now that someone in Dynasty Owner actually has Kirk Cousins on their roster, Kyle Rudolph is probably the biggest name player not on a single Dynasty Owner roster. That’s what happens when you have a 4-year, $36 million contract ($9 million annually) and have yet to produce a double-digit point performance for the season. However, the Cousins to Rudolph connection was strong this week and Rudolph finished with 13.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions for 68 receiving yards) to crack double-digits for the first time since Week 11 of last year. It’s difficult to be in anyone’s Starting lineup when you aren’t on a single Dynasty Owner roster, but that’s the situation with Rudolph.

Honorable mention to Richard Rodgers for the second week in a row. Last week, Rodgers scored 12.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and was owned in 44% of Dynasty Owner leagues. His ownership remained at 44% for the second week in a row as he scored a late TD to better his Week 11 performance slightly by scoring 14.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD).  If you spent the Dynasty Dollars to pick him up before Week 11, hopefully you had him in your Starting lineup in each of the past two weeks, or at least this week.

K: Nick Folk (NE) – 12.0 points

After missing a FG in each of the first two weeks of the season, Nick Folk has been perfect on FG attempts, making 18 out of his last 18 attempts. He has missed two PATs since then, but nobody’s perfect. He’s only averaging 7.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game but exceeded that this week with 12.0 points (FGs of 22 and 50 yards plus two PATs). The 50-yard FG was worth 8.0 points as it was clutch and gave the Patriots the 20-17 victory over Arizona as time expired in regulation. He’s currently the #15 kicker in Dynasty Owner and available in about one-quarter of leagues (74% ownership) for just $1.05 million after starting the season unowned. Those Dynasty Owners with Folk on their roster should have had him in their Starting lineup this week.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one player who probably was a Starter but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few, none or negative Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in Week 12.

QB: Derek Carr (LV) – -1.3 points

Prior to Week 12, Carr was just sitting outside of the Top 12 QBs in Dynasty Owner and with Lamar Jackson out due to COVID and Joe Burrow on Injured Reserve, he should have been considered a low end Starting QB. However, Carr put together one of the worst performances of 2020 with 4 turnovers and -1.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (215 passing yards, 1 INT, 3 fumbles – lost). It was so bad that the Raiders pulled him for Nathan Peterman and Peterman outscored Carr with 2.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (25 passing yards, 9 rushing yards). Anytime that you get outscored by Nathan Peterman, it’s a bad week. Hopefully Dynasty Owners with Carr on their roster have at least three QBs so they could have had him on their Practice Squad and not take the negative points he produced this week.

RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – 1.9 points

It seems like a long time ago, but back on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys played the Football Team and got blown out 41-16. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott had a mere 1.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32 rushing yards, 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost) to put up his worst performance of the season. Elliott hasn’t been great since Dak Prescott got injured back in Week 5, averaging just 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in five games before Thanksgiving without Prescott, after averaging almost twice as many points (21.7) in the five games with Prescott in the lineup. Elliott had his best game without Prescott in Week 11 with 21.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points but followed it up with a Bench worthy performance in Week 12.

Dishonorable mention to Josh Jacobs who made it two Top 10 RBs with a Bench worthy performance in Week 12. Jacobs had only 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (27 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost) in the Raiders 43-6 blowout loss to the Falcons. This week’s performance tied his Week 3 performance last year for the worst game of Jacobs’ short career. Jacobs, like pretty much every Raiders player, should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench or Practice Squad.

WR: Darius Slayton (NYG) – 0.0 points

Slayton had been up and down all season with five games of more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and five games with less than 10.0 points prior to Week 12. He had a good week with 14.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 10 before the Giants’ Week 11 bye, so producing good results in Week 12 against the Bengals wasn’t out of the question. However, it was not to be for Slayton as he was only targeted twice, compared to nine and eight targets respectively for fellow WRs Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard. Slayton was a WR2 or FLEX option based on his performance this season and expectations but should have been left on your Dynasty Owner Bench or Practice Squad.

TE: Jonnu Smith (TEN) – 0.0 points

We are up to three weeks in a row in which a Top 12 ranked TE has put up a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). First, it was Jimmy Graham, then Hayden Hurst and now, it’s Jonnu Smith. Smith wasn’t even targeted once in the game as Tennessee put up 45 points in a blowout victory over the Indianapolis Colts. He drops from the #5 ranked TE to #7 with this week’s performance, but that’s better than his draft position as the #11 TE selected on average (ADP 114.6). Based on those rankings, he’s probably going to be in the Starting lineup for most of his Dynasty Owners next week, but he should have been left on the Bench or Practice Squad in Week 12.

K: Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) – 2.0 points

Blankenship was working on two double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point weeks in a row before this week’s 2.0-point performance. He made both of his PAT attempts in the game but didn’t get to attempt any FGs. The poor scoring week dropped him from the #8 kicker down to the #12 kicker in Dynasty Owner. Blankenship has five double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point weeks over the course of the 2020 season, but not in Week 12 when he should have been on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap

Russell Wilson’s War vs. The Swamp Donkeys

This match-up of Chase for the Ring contenders didn’t disappoint as it is very close with Benny Snell and Chase Claypool left to play on the Bench for Russell Wilson’s War. Even though Russell Wilson’s War trails by 2.6 points right now, they only need 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from Snell and Claypool combined to win. Regardless of who wins, this will end up being a close one. The Starting lineups were extremely close with The Swamp Donkeys ahead by 0.4 points (128.4-128.0). The Titans combo of Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown put up 67.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Russell Wilson’s War, while The Swamp Donkey had a more balanced lineup with six Starters having double-digit points.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

Neither The Swamp Donkeys nor Russell Wilson’s War cracked the Top 10 in the Chase for the Ring as eight of the Top 10 from last week are still here. However, there was some movement among those teams.

There was no change in the top three spots in the Chase as Barbee Kilgore retained the top spot and increased their advantage over Quaranteed for Greatness with a huge week (222.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). That’s what happens when you have the Player of the Week (Tyreek Hill) and the QB throwing him the ball (Patrick Mahomes), as well as the Value Player of the Week (James Robinson).

Yanji and My Corona dropped out of the Top 10, while Gabagool and Tip Drill moved in at the #9 and #10 spots. There is almost 200 points separating the top team from the team in tenth place. Don’t worry because there is still one regular season game and three playoff weeks for Dynasty Owners to accumulate victories, either close ones or blowouts, and points to try and win the Ring.

Conclusions

Week 12 is still unfinished, but the games that have finished featured plenty of close games on Sunday and blowout victories on both Thanksgiving and Sunday. Who knows what Wednesday afternoon will bring? Even though all of the Dynasty Owner match-up for Week 12 haven’t finished, we’ve seen some close victories and blowouts as well with the playoffs looming.

Even with Wednesday afternoon football on tap, there will still be the usual preview article for Week 13 coming up on Friday. Please read the preview article to see how my Week 12 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in Week 13. Besides the weekly recap and preview articles, we will also have articles every week from both Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl). There was a bonus article published yesterday by Jay about the top trade targets for all Dynasty Owner teams. Be sure to follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter to read what we’re tweeting as well.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer goes live this week at 1 PM on Wednesday so catch us just before the Wednesday afternoon game. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is up to 565 subscribers on YouTube. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

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Week 13 Free Agent Auction Targets

By: Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsNFL)

This is it ladies and gentlemen, the time has come for you to add your final free agent additions. While the cream of the free agent crop has certainly come and gone there are a few worthwhile additions left. With rosters set to be locked at the end of this football week I would recommend filling any available roster slots you have open with players like D’Onta Foreman, who are widely available and have the potential to step into a huge role if the workhorse in front of them goes down with COVID, or an injury.

As we have seen the past few weeks in the NFL, no one is safe from COVID, aside from Big Ben Roethlisberger who is said to take extreme precaution over the virus. High end backup quarterbacks should also be high on your target list this week, as we have seen with the Ravens, backups can hold major potential in 2020. These are obviously risky pickups because we have zero idea on who will miss time due to COVID. The one thing with all this that is a sure-fire thing, more big-name players will miss time throughout the fantasy playoffs.

We all knew coming into 2020 that the fantasy owners who adjusted well on the fly, had solid depth, and a little bit of luck would do well in any format, and it has more than come true. If you had the unpleasant time of watching the Saints vs Broncos game on Sunday you were given a front row seat at how quickly this virus can disrupt any team, real life or fantasy. Another final reminder that trading will also freeze at the end of this week, alongside free agent additions. Keep in mind you may still make trades during this period, but none will become official until the fantasy season comes to a close.


The Free Agent Auction processes bids this week on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at 5 am EST. There is no limit to how much Dynasty Owner currency you can acquire throughout the year as it comes down to how much you feel comfortable spending.

KeKe Coutee (2-Years $797,257/yr.) 41.24% Owned

If you missed out on Coutee in last week’s article you will have a second chance, but this one may get expensive! Over the past 5-6 weeks Watson has been on an absolute tear, and Coutee just vaulted from the 5th spot on the depth chart to the 2nd spot in just 2 weeks.

Will Fuller has been suspended for PED use for 6 weeks, and fellow/former teammates Cobb (IR) and Stills (cut), are gone which opens a massive hole in Houston’s offense, that Coutee is in line to fill. As I mentioned last week Coutee is a very talented kid who will finally get a true shot to start in the NFL. If you have the roster spot and Coutee is available in your league he is a must grab with the way his quarterback is playing, not to mention the Texans have zero run game. At worst Hopefully Coutee is someone you can put on your bench and forget about.

Brandon Allen (1-Year $825,000) 59.79% Owned

Hey Brandon Allen sounds much better than Ryan Finley doesn’t it? Finley was a player I honestly cringed having to write about because of how bad he has looked, but at the end of the day he was a cheap potential starting quarterback which is tough to find. Allen was nowhere near great, but he was only on the Bengals practice squad and more than likely had zero time to work with any players of importance before last week. I see Allen as a bottom third of the league quarterback the rest of the way, which means he should be rostered in almost all leagues this week. If you had Burrow and can’t find a trade partner for a solid option I would go with Allen, unless you can make the cap work for a more expensive option.

If you’re able to find a better rest of season option pull the trigger immediately, if not Allen is the one to settle on. The Bengals have one of the better casts of play makers in the NFL giving Allen some possible upside the rest of the way, along with the lack of run game we have seen out of the Bengal’s thus far.

Colt McCoy (1-Year $2,250,000) 0% Owned

Another quarterback injury happened this past week with Daniel Jones being the latest to get hurt. The initial reports say Jones will miss time opening the way for Colt McCoy to be NFL relevant once again. McCoy has been nothing but average his entire career and I’m sure we will see more of the same this week on a bad Giants football team, though they are on a three-game winning streak and playing better football.

The Giants have a favorable schedule coming up with McCoy starting, the Seahawks slated for this week, followed by Arizona the following week. If McCoy can put up game manager numbers over the next two weeks, or more depending on Jones’s health he will make an excellent bench play for any team needing a quarterback as something is always better than nothing. If you are looking for a starter, I would look for Allen first and leave McCoy as a consolation prize if you miss out.

Collin Johnson (4-Years $900,538/yr.) 52.58% Owned

Johnson had his possible breakout performance on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns. He finished his day with a whooping 8 targets catching 4 of them for 96 yards and a touchdown. While Johnson’s performance can be chalked up to him being Glennon’s favorite target he is a rookie who is worth stashing. The Jaguars are currently sitting at a 1-10 record so it would be a wise bet to think they will lean towards evaluating all the young talent possible before the end of this season.

If Jacksonville for some reason sticks with Glennon moving forward it would make Johnson a much more intriguing option, but from everything I have read Minshew mania will be back in Jacksonville this coming weekend sending Glennon back to his rightful throne… the bench. if Johnson is available in your league, he’s worth a roster spot no matter who is under center for the Jags. In dynasty any rookie producing on the field in limited work is a player with breakout potential in the following seasons, plus his extremely cheap 4-year salary is a very nice bonus for anyone wanting to pick up Johnson.

David Moore (1-Year $2,133,000) 56.7% Owned

Has there been a more consistent fantasy turd this season than David Moore? Moore is an extremely gross and boring pickup, but he has managed to score decent fantasy points this season for a bench play. It seems to this point he has had a touchdown just about every other game, as well as sprinkling in some solid yardage games to boot. On Monday night Moore put up a Tyreek Hill like performance (joking) with 3 catches for -6 yards and a score earning 8.5 fantasy points. Wilson seems to really trust David Moore in the red zone which is the main reason he is somewhat fantasy relevant this season but be aware he is nothing more than a borderline bench receiver and still having weeks where he may disappoint you.

While you may read this and think I hate Moore I don’t as he is my top widely available player to target at the position for COVID purposes. If Lockett or Metcalf were to miss time due to COVID or injury Moore would instantly become a potential top 30 fantasy wide receiver with the rapport he has built with Wilson.

Conclusion

With this being my last free agent article of 2020, I would like to take a quick second of your time to just say thank you! You guys, and gals here on Dynasty Owner are phenomenal people and I consider myself lucky to be able to help all of you with your fantasy needs. I am so thankful to be able to write weekly articles for all of you and I hope they have helped you in many ways, especially with winning some of your matchups.

I got into football at a young age and I instantly fell in love with the game, but a few years later was when I meet my true football love, fantasy football. Over the years I started joining more and more leagues becoming what most call a “fantasy junkie” within the first few weeks of my first season, if not the offseason. Since that moment I have had three dream jobs I wanted to do in my life, the first being a football broadcaster, the second a football coach/scout, and last but not least I wanted to work with fantasy football in some form and it honestly didn’t matter what.

I have now passed that down to my 9-year-old son Bentley who is in his first dynasty league this season and doing very well with players like Antonio Gibson and James Robinson on his roster. Thankfully after 20 years of fantasy football I can say I have one of my dream jobs writing for Dynasty Owner about fantasy football, and none of it would be possible if it weren’t for all of you, and of course the Dynasty Owner crew. Thank you again!!!

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