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Week 12 Recap: Close Games and Blowouts

Week 12 Recap: Close Games and Blowouts

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

We’ve had 15 games played this week and 13 of them were either a close game decided by a FG or less, or a blowout in which one team won by two TDs or more. Six games were decided by three or fewer points with a one-point win for the Vikings over the Panthers (28-27) and two games decided by two points (Giants over the Bengals 19-17 and Browns over the Jaguars 27-25). Starting on Thanksgiving with victories of 25 points by the Football Team and 16 points by the Texans, there were seven blowouts with a margin of victory of 16 points or more. The widest margin of victory was 37 points (Falcons over the Raiders 43-6). The Monday Night Football game had a margin of victory of six points after the Eagles late TD and two-point conversion, while the only Sunday game that didn’t fall into either category was the Bills-Chargers game that finished with a 27-17 score and the Chargers with the ball on the Bills’ one-yard line.

Despite the week not being finished, we have a good sense of the final scores in most Dynasty Owner matchups and final scores in a few. Looking at the Chase for the Ring, there were several blowout victories including two Chase teams who won by over 100 points against opponents with winning records. We also had some very close games, even among Chase teams. The current #5 team (All Might) has just a 2.3-point advantage over the Average Joes, but Average Joes still have Eric Ebron left on their Bench. Even if Ebron goes scoreless, it’ll be close.  There were also two games in the “expert” league that came down to the wire with Dynasty Owner Tim beating Jerry from Rotowire by 5.5 points on Richard Rodgers’ 33-yard TD reception (a catch worth 10.3 points) with only seconds left on Monday night. Another “expert” league match-up was decided by just 2.2 points. The Match-up of the Week isn’t quite over yet either but is going to be a close game as well.

Both close victories and blowouts are represented in our Players of the Week. The Dynasty Owner Player of the Week got his points in a blowout, while the Value Player of the Week was in a close game. We’ll name both of them, highlight a player at every position who should have been one of your Starters and one who should have been on your Bench or Practice Squad. We’ll also find out who won the close Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week and take our weekly look at the Chase for the Ring standings.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3-point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 1st. The Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens game originally scheduled for Thanksgiving night, then rescheduled to Tuesday and now scheduled to be played on Wednesday afternoon, is not included in this recap.

Dynasty Owner Player of the Week

Our twelfth Dynasty Owner Player of the Week for the season is: Tyreek Hill

Hill wins his first ever Player of the Week honor in a blowout by scoring a Dynasty Owner record 63.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (13 receptions, 269 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs). Deshaun Watson was the closest player to Hill in scoring this week and he had 45.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 18.6 fewer points than Hill. Hill had 45.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions, 203 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs plus the 6-point bonus for 200 receiving yards) in the first half alone. The previous full game scoring record was 62.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points set by Aaron Rodgers back in Week 7 of 2019. Hill’s performance this week makes him the top WR in Dynasty Owner with 265.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, 37.3 more than Davante Adams in second place. Dynasty Owners won’t mind paying Hill’s $18 million annual salary if he continues to have weeks like this one in the Dynasty Owner playoffs.

  • Week 12 Points: 63.9
  • 2020 Salary: $18,000,000
  • Cost per Point: $281,690

Congratulations Tyreek on winning your first Dynasty Owner Player of the Week honor and setting the record for the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a single week.

Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week

Because this is Dynasty Owner and we’re all looking for value from the players on our roster, we also have the Value Player of the Week. The twelfth Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week for 2020 is: James Robinson

Robinson started training camp as an undrafted rookie free agent with a salary of only $763,333 annually. Now after Week 12, he is the #4 RB in Dynasty Owner with 207.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, an average of 18.8 points per game. He has two games with over 30.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points so far this season but had yet to win the Value Player of the Week award. In both of those 30.0+ point games, he was edged out by someone with slightly better value for the week (Alvin Kamara in Week 3 and Jeffrey Wilson in Week 7). This week, nobody edged him out as he had 28.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (128 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 5 receptions, 31 receiving yards) in the Jaguars’ close 27-25 loss to the Browns. That’s just his third best game of the season, but good enough for his first Value Player of the Week honor.

  • Week 12 Points: 28.9
  • 2020 Salary: $763,333
  • Cost per Point: $26,413

Congratulations James on your first, but likely not last, Dynasty Owner Value Player of the Week honor!

Players Who Should Have Been Starters This Week

Next, we look at those players who should have been one of your Starters based on their performance in Week 12. We aren’t going to write that you should have started Patrick Mahomes or Derrick Henry because barring injury or bye week, both of them should always be in your Starting lineup. Instead, these are players who might be Free Agents or on your Bench or Practice Squad, but likely weren’t Starters in Week 12 when they should have been.

QB: Kirk Cousins (MIN) – 38.2 points

Believe it or not, but Kirk Cousins is currently a Top 12 QB in Dynasty Owner after Week 12. He had his best performance of the 2020 season with 38.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (307 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 19 rushing yards, 1 2-pt conversion, 1 fumble – lost) in the Vikings 28-27 close victory over the Carolina Panthers. This includes the 3-point clutch scoring bonus for his 10 yard TD pass with under one minute left in the game. Cousins has averaged 30.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points over the past four weeks to move up to being the #11 QB in Dynasty Owner. However, he is only owned in 1% of Dynasty Owner leagues because of his $33 million annual salary. If you are one of the few Dynasty Owners with Cousins on your roster, hopefully you had him in your Starting lineup this week.

RB: Latavius Murray (NO) – 26.6 points

Alvin Kamara is still the #1 RB in Dynasty Owner after this week’s 6.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance in the Saints’ Week 12 blowout of the Broncos, but he wasn’t even the top RB on his own team this week. That was Latavius Murray who had his second two TD game of the 2020 season and also surpassed 100 rushing yards to score 26.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (124 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 1 reception, 2 receiving yards). Even after this week, Murray is still just the #28 RB in Dynasty Owner. However, he should have been in your Starting lineup this week in general and even in place of Kamara if you drafted Murray as a handcuff and have both of them on your roster.

WR: Collin Johnson (JAX) – 19.6 points

Injuries to top Jaguars WR D.J. Chark as well as Chris Conley provided an opportunity for another Jacksonville WR to step up in Week 12. Collin Johnson was the player who did so with a 19.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance (4 receptions, 96 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). He had nearly as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week (19.6) than he had through the first ten games of the season (19.9). Normally, that would make a player a top target in the Free Agent Auction and probably #1 on @Jaypoundsee Week 13 Free Agent Auction Target list, but Johnson is already owned in 53% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Those Dynasty Owners were highly unlikely to have put Johnson in their Starting lineup this week, even though it would have been the right move.

TE: Kyle Rudolph (MIN) – 13.8 points

Now that someone in Dynasty Owner actually has Kirk Cousins on their roster, Kyle Rudolph is probably the biggest name player not on a single Dynasty Owner roster. That’s what happens when you have a 4-year, $36 million contract ($9 million annually) and have yet to produce a double-digit point performance for the season. However, the Cousins to Rudolph connection was strong this week and Rudolph finished with 13.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (7 receptions for 68 receiving yards) to crack double-digits for the first time since Week 11 of last year. It’s difficult to be in anyone’s Starting lineup when you aren’t on a single Dynasty Owner roster, but that’s the situation with Rudolph.

Honorable mention to Richard Rodgers for the second week in a row. Last week, Rodgers scored 12.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and was owned in 44% of Dynasty Owner leagues. His ownership remained at 44% for the second week in a row as he scored a late TD to better his Week 11 performance slightly by scoring 14.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD).  If you spent the Dynasty Dollars to pick him up before Week 11, hopefully you had him in your Starting lineup in each of the past two weeks, or at least this week.

K: Nick Folk (NE) – 12.0 points

After missing a FG in each of the first two weeks of the season, Nick Folk has been perfect on FG attempts, making 18 out of his last 18 attempts. He has missed two PATs since then, but nobody’s perfect. He’s only averaging 7.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game but exceeded that this week with 12.0 points (FGs of 22 and 50 yards plus two PATs). The 50-yard FG was worth 8.0 points as it was clutch and gave the Patriots the 20-17 victory over Arizona as time expired in regulation. He’s currently the #15 kicker in Dynasty Owner and available in about one-quarter of leagues (74% ownership) for just $1.05 million after starting the season unowned. Those Dynasty Owners with Folk on their roster should have had him in their Starting lineup this week.

Players Who Should Have Been on the Bench or Practice Squad

For every player who should have been one of your Starters but wasn’t, we have at least one player who probably was a Starter but would have been better left on your Bench or Practice Squad. Here are some likely Starters who scored few, none or negative Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, so they should have been riding your Dynasty Owner Bench or hanging out on the Practice Squad in Week 12.

QB: Derek Carr (LV) – -1.3 points

Prior to Week 12, Carr was just sitting outside of the Top 12 QBs in Dynasty Owner and with Lamar Jackson out due to COVID and Joe Burrow on Injured Reserve, he should have been considered a low end Starting QB. However, Carr put together one of the worst performances of 2020 with 4 turnovers and -1.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (215 passing yards, 1 INT, 3 fumbles – lost). It was so bad that the Raiders pulled him for Nathan Peterman and Peterman outscored Carr with 2.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (25 passing yards, 9 rushing yards). Anytime that you get outscored by Nathan Peterman, it’s a bad week. Hopefully Dynasty Owners with Carr on their roster have at least three QBs so they could have had him on their Practice Squad and not take the negative points he produced this week.

RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – 1.9 points

It seems like a long time ago, but back on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys played the Football Team and got blown out 41-16. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott had a mere 1.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32 rushing yards, 1 reception, 7 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost) to put up his worst performance of the season. Elliott hasn’t been great since Dak Prescott got injured back in Week 5, averaging just 10.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in five games before Thanksgiving without Prescott, after averaging almost twice as many points (21.7) in the five games with Prescott in the lineup. Elliott had his best game without Prescott in Week 11 with 21.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points but followed it up with a Bench worthy performance in Week 12.

Dishonorable mention to Josh Jacobs who made it two Top 10 RBs with a Bench worthy performance in Week 12. Jacobs had only 4.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (27 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 1 fumble – lost) in the Raiders 43-6 blowout loss to the Falcons. This week’s performance tied his Week 3 performance last year for the worst game of Jacobs’ short career. Jacobs, like pretty much every Raiders player, should have been on your Dynasty Owner Bench or Practice Squad.

WR: Darius Slayton (NYG) – 0.0 points

Slayton had been up and down all season with five games of more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and five games with less than 10.0 points prior to Week 12. He had a good week with 14.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 10 before the Giants’ Week 11 bye, so producing good results in Week 12 against the Bengals wasn’t out of the question. However, it was not to be for Slayton as he was only targeted twice, compared to nine and eight targets respectively for fellow WRs Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard. Slayton was a WR2 or FLEX option based on his performance this season and expectations but should have been left on your Dynasty Owner Bench or Practice Squad.

TE: Jonnu Smith (TEN) – 0.0 points

We are up to three weeks in a row in which a Top 12 ranked TE has put up a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). First, it was Jimmy Graham, then Hayden Hurst and now, it’s Jonnu Smith. Smith wasn’t even targeted once in the game as Tennessee put up 45 points in a blowout victory over the Indianapolis Colts. He drops from the #5 ranked TE to #7 with this week’s performance, but that’s better than his draft position as the #11 TE selected on average (ADP 114.6). Based on those rankings, he’s probably going to be in the Starting lineup for most of his Dynasty Owners next week, but he should have been left on the Bench or Practice Squad in Week 12.

K: Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) – 2.0 points

Blankenship was working on two double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point weeks in a row before this week’s 2.0-point performance. He made both of his PAT attempts in the game but didn’t get to attempt any FGs. The poor scoring week dropped him from the #8 kicker down to the #12 kicker in Dynasty Owner. Blankenship has five double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point weeks over the course of the 2020 season, but not in Week 12 when he should have been on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week Recap

Russell Wilson’s War vs. The Swamp Donkeys

This match-up of Chase for the Ring contenders didn’t disappoint as it is very close with Benny Snell and Chase Claypool left to play on the Bench for Russell Wilson’s War. Even though Russell Wilson’s War trails by 2.6 points right now, they only need 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from Snell and Claypool combined to win. Regardless of who wins, this will end up being a close one. The Starting lineups were extremely close with The Swamp Donkeys ahead by 0.4 points (128.4-128.0). The Titans combo of Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown put up 67.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for Russell Wilson’s War, while The Swamp Donkey had a more balanced lineup with six Starters having double-digit points.

Chase for the Ring Leaderboard

Neither The Swamp Donkeys nor Russell Wilson’s War cracked the Top 10 in the Chase for the Ring as eight of the Top 10 from last week are still here. However, there was some movement among those teams.

There was no change in the top three spots in the Chase as Barbee Kilgore retained the top spot and increased their advantage over Quaranteed for Greatness with a huge week (222.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). That’s what happens when you have the Player of the Week (Tyreek Hill) and the QB throwing him the ball (Patrick Mahomes), as well as the Value Player of the Week (James Robinson).

Yanji and My Corona dropped out of the Top 10, while Gabagool and Tip Drill moved in at the #9 and #10 spots. There is almost 200 points separating the top team from the team in tenth place. Don’t worry because there is still one regular season game and three playoff weeks for Dynasty Owners to accumulate victories, either close ones or blowouts, and points to try and win the Ring.

Conclusions

Week 12 is still unfinished, but the games that have finished featured plenty of close games on Sunday and blowout victories on both Thanksgiving and Sunday. Who knows what Wednesday afternoon will bring? Even though all of the Dynasty Owner match-up for Week 12 haven’t finished, we’ve seen some close victories and blowouts as well with the playoffs looming.

Even with Wednesday afternoon football on tap, there will still be the usual preview article for Week 13 coming up on Friday. Please read the preview article to see how my Week 12 recommendations did and who should be a Starter and who should be on your Bench in Week 13. Besides the weekly recap and preview articles, we will also have articles every week from both Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl). There was a bonus article published yesterday by Jay about the top trade targets for all Dynasty Owner teams. Be sure to follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter to read what we’re tweeting as well.

The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer goes live this week at 1 PM on Wednesday so catch us just before the Wednesday afternoon game. If you can’t make it live, then watch or listen anytime on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Subscribe as well to receive notifications and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is up to 565 subscribers on YouTube. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and make your way into the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring standings.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

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