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Week 13 Preview – Frozen

Week 13 Preview – Frozen

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Let it go! Let it go! I’ll stop there because I can imagine every Dynasty Owner with children might have that song from Frozen in their heads now. For that, I apologize. However, frozen is what your Dynasty Owner roster will become in just a couple of days. No more adding players from the Free Agent Auction. No more trades. That’s it, whoever you have on your roster as for this week’s games is who you ride with through your league playoffs (or the loser’s bracket) for the next three weeks. Hope you like your team because those guys are who you have for a while.

Let’s quickly go through a checklist of what you need if you want to win your League title or the Loser’s Bracket to get that coveted extra first round draft pick:

  • Three starting QBs in case one gets injured, or at least a handcuff for your top QB if by chance, he’s suddenly out;
  • Three starting kickers, which is less important than three QBs, but still important because nobody wants to lose their League title or that extra pick because they didn’t have a Bench kicker;
  • Plenty of depth at RB, WR and TE on your Practice Squad to weather an injury (or two) to your Starters or Bench; and
  • Enough snacks and drinks for football watching over the next three weeks

The last bullet point isn’t critical. Unless you live somewhere cold and the weather’s getting more and more frozen as the days are getting shorter. Nobody wants to run to the grocery store or 7-Eleven for snacks in the cold every day there’s a game on. That’s a lot of days in the upcoming weeks! This week alone, there are games on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday plus the next couple of Thursdays, a few Saturday games in Weeks 15 and 16 and finally the Week 16 Christmas Day Friday game. That’s a lot of starting up the car in the cold to run out for snacks and drinks, so stock up now.

One thing that’s definitely not frozen yet are all of the playoff berths in many leagues. There are spots to be won and lost and Week 14 byes to be secured. We were hoping to highlight a head-to-head match-up in which the winner makes the playoffs, while the loser doesn’t, but it was pretty hard to find. In plenty of leagues, the playoff match-ups aren’t finalized, but teams need to win and have another team lose to make it. It’s not an easy as “win and you’re in” for a lot of Dynasty Owners, which is good and should lead to a lot of excitement for Dynasty Owners in the playoff hunt. It’s that way in both of my leagues as well as another beta league with the teams featured in our Match-up of the Week.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of December 4th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 12 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Daniel Jones – 12.5 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: Frank Gore – 11.6 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • WR: Jalen Reagor – 4.1 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Austin Hooper – 9.3 (Just Ok recommendation)

A slightly below average Week 12 with three Just Ok recommendations and no Good recommendations, but only one Bad one. Believe it or not, despite only scoring 12.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, the Daniel Jones recommendation was really Just Ok as ten other starting QBs had fewer points than he did. Gore had 21 touches, but only 11.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which was enough to make him a low-end RB2. Austin Hooper had a TD catch, but not much else as he scored 9.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, putting him close, but just outside of the Top 12 TEs for the week. The only Bad recommendation was Jalen Reagor who failed to take advantage of the Seattle secondary and only scored 4.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. We’ve had more Bad than Good recommendations this year, but our final record isn’t frozen just yet, so let’s move on to the Week 13 recommendations:

Mitchell Trubisky (QB – CHI): Out of the two Bears QBs this season, Trubisky has been the better one for Dynasty Owners. Both are roughly the same salary ($8 million for Foles vs. $7.258 million for Trubisky), but Trubisky has scored just under 22.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his four starts compared to 15.6 points per start for Foles. Trubisky is scoring roughly the same number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points as some QBs with much higher salaries, such as Matthew Stafford ($25 million) and Teddy Bridgewater ($21 million). Way back in Week 1, Trubisky led the Bears on a tremendous comeback with 3 TD passes in the fourth quarter of the Bears 27-24 victory over the Lions. It was a 34.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance for him and now in Week 13, he gets to face the Lions again. The Lions have only caused 11 turnovers this season, which should help Trubisky who has 9 turnovers (5 INTs and 4 fumbles) in only four games. Trubisky might not score 34.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points again, but he should put up enough points to be a Starter this week.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL): Lost in the whole Ravens COVID-19 outbreak in Week 12 was the breakout game in Week 11 for rookie J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins had his best game of the season with 18.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and looked like he was ready to be the top RB for the Ravens in Week 12. Then he tested positive for COVID-19 and sat out the game. A game in which Ravens RB Gus Edwards gained only 10 yards on 9 carries plus a TD for a total of 7.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Dobbins is back to face Dallas in Week 13 and after Edwards’ lack of production versus Pittsburgh, he should be the top RB. Dallas has given up the second most yards to RBs per game (130.7 yards per game) and an average of 4.8 yards per carry to RBs. They were shredded by Antonio Gibson of the Football Team on Thanksgiving to the tune of 115 yards and 3 rushing TDs, not to mention the 57 yards that Gibson’s teammate Peyton Barber added on. Even though he’s just the #41 ranked RB in Dynasty Owner, Dobbins should be in your Starting lineup.

Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG): Steady, but not spectacular is the best description for Sterling Shepard this season. He has scored over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in six out of the seven games he has played this season, but never over 20.0 points. Since returning in Week 7 from injury, he has no less than 6 receptions in any game, but only one TD. At this point in the season, he’s the #63 ranked WR and probably has been sitting on your Dynasty Owner Bench or languishing on the Free Agent Auction because of his $10.25 million annual salary for four years. Even if Giants QB Daniel Jones doesn’t play, Shepard should do well against the Seattle pass defense that is the worst in the NFL against WR, giving up an average of 20 receptions and 240 yards per game to opposing WRs. Start Shepard if you have him on your Dynasty Owner roster and consider picking him up for this week and the playoffs before the transaction freeze kicks in.

Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA): Picking a TE in this spot wasn’t easy, but here goes with Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki who should be worth a start against a Bengals defense that has allowed more receiving yards (718) to TEs than any other team. They have allowed double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points to seven different TEs, including three TEs outside of the top 12 (Trey Burton, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku). Gesicki has been better in the seven games started by Ryan Fitzpatrick (9.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and three TDs) than in the four games started by Tua Tagovailoa (5.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and no TDs). He’s not the only Dolphins TE and Fitzpatrick may not start this week, but go with Gesicki in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 12 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Aaron Rodgers – 35.7 (Bad recommendation)
  • RB: Melvin Gordon – 3.1 (Good recommendation)
  • WR: Mike Evans – 20.0 (Bad recommendation)
  • TE: Jonnu Smith – 0.0 (Good recommendation)

A split decision in Week 12 with two Good recommendations and two Bad ones. It was the second week in a row and third time this season that Rodgers has turned in a good performance when recommended as a Bench option. Mike Evans had two TDs, so the recommendation to Bench him as well was Bad. On the positive side,  the recommendations to Bench Melvin Gordon and Jonnu Smith were Good as Gordon had just 3.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Smith had a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). That’s two Good Bench RB recommendations in a row. With the playoffs near and the transaction freeze coming soon, it’s time to step it up with these recommendations of guys to Bench in Week 13.

Josh Allen (QB – BUF): It would have been crazy to put Allen here after the first four weeks of the season when he was averaging 40.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, the season’s stats didn’t freeze after four weeks and since then, he’s been slightly above average (25.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game), but with four games of under 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points mixed in. This includes last week when he had a passing and a rushing TD, but only scored 17.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against the Chargers. Now, he gets to play against the 49ers defense that just got Richard Sherman back from Injured Reserve, held Jared Goff to 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week and only let the Saints QBs score a combined 12.1 points in Week 10. That seems like the type of combination that should worry Allen’s Dynasty Owners and make them Bench him for a better option.

Kenyan Drake (RB – ARI): Drake is coming off one of his best performances of the year after scoring two TDs and 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against New England, so benching him after that seems like a curious suggestion. However, after Drake had 2 TDs and 30.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Dallas back in Week 6, he followed it up with just 5.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 7 versus Seattle. Unfortunately for Drake and his Dynasty Owners, their opponent this week are the Los Angeles Rams, who are one of the better run defenses in the NFL. They only allow 3.8 yards per carry to RBs and held San Francisco RBs to 3.4 yards per carry last week and Tampa Bay RBs to 2.4 yards per carry the week before that. Arizona will likely rely on Kyler Murray more this week and less on the running game, which is where Drake does most of his damage. Bench him this week.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): The Football Team is not in an enviable position this week having to face the Pittsburgh Steelers just five days after Coach Mike Tomlin ripped them for a poor game in a win over the Baltimore Ravens. That defense will likely be fired up to play. They already have one of the top defenses in the league and league the NFL in sacks with 41. This will make it difficult for QB Alex Smith to sit back in the pocket and find open receivers downfield, which will make him check down even more than he usually does and keep his passing numbers pretty low. That’s not good for McLaurin who has accumulated 46% of the Football Team’s receiving yards this season (highest in the NFL). Bench McLaurin against the Pittsburgh defense.

Hunter Henry (TE – LAC): The AFC West has some pretty good TEs. All four starters are ranked in the Top 15 TEs with Noah Fant of the Broncos being the lowest at #15. Travis Kelce of the Chiefs is the clear top TE and Darren Waller of the Raiders is second this year, while Hunter Henry comes in sixth place. The Patriots have done a good job against these TEs so far this year – allowing Kelce to only score 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, his second worst game of the season and Waller to get just 2.9 points in his worst game of the year. Fant did not play in the game against New England. While the Patriots defense has struggled recently against Mark Andrews of the Ravens and Jordan Akins of the Texans, they did hold Kyler Murray to his worst game of the season last week and should be able to handle Justin Herbert. That means a bad game for Henry and a spot on your Dynasty Owner Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week –

Cap Casualties vs. Squirrel Master

The final regular season Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week for the 2020 season is a beta league battle between a pair of teams who should make the playoffs with a victory, but only one of them is guaranteed to do so. Cap Casualties are 6-6 on the season and hold down the sixth and final spot in their League playoffs, while their opponent, Squirrel Master, is 5-7 and just behind them in seventh place. One of them is going to win and if it’s Cap Casualties, they are in the playoffs. If Squirrel Master wins, then it comes down to what happens in other League games.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, Squirrel Master should defeat Cap Casualties, leaving both teams with 6-7 records and throwing the playoff battle into complete chaos. Cap Casualties does have to fill two spots in their Starting lineup and Bench, but even if they do, it might not be enough to defeat the Squirrel Master. If Squirrel Master wins, we could see any number of teams make the playoffs.

That’s because there is another team in the League at 6-6 (Vampire Facials) who play one of the three teams with a 5-7 record (Tafoya). Two other teams (Jazz and CyberFire) also have an outside chance at the playoffs at 5-7. With playoff berths possible, all of these teams could be making moves to position their team to either make a playoff run or put their best foot forward in the Loser’s bracket for the extra first round pick. All of them have a few days before the transaction freeze kicks in to figure out what to do.

Check the recap article to find out who wins and if they make the playoffs.

Conclusion

Your Dynasty Owner roster may be temporarily frozen soon, but the NFL and Dynasty Owner games continue on this week and for the rest of December. You can still make those Free Agent Auction bids and trades after this week; they just won’t process until after the Dynasty Owner playoffs are finished. Whether you’re already in the playoffs and trying to clinch a Week 14 bye, fighting for a playoff spot like our teams in the Matchup of the Week, or just trying to improve your team for next year, these next couple of days should be interesting.

We will feature a playoff Matchup next week so if your team fights its way into the playoffs, has a game next week and you want to be featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33). You might see your Dynasty Owner team highlighted as the Matchup of the Week. Because of the frozen rosters, there’s no need for the usual weekly free agent article from Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl), but I’m sure he and Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) will find something to write to help you with your Dynasty Owner team once rosters are unfrozen. Follow all of us as well as Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be the weekly Tuesday Live podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific) with Seth and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and the weekly podcast series with myself and Tim on Wednesday at 1 PM (Eastern) / 10 AM (Pacific). Both will be streaming live on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 570 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

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