By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DyanstyJerk)
And then there were two…
Two teams remain in contention for The Vince Lombardi Trophy, and we are a week and a half away from completing a season that I thought never had a chance to finish. After watching the early issues MLB had, I had little hope that season or any shortened season would finish. Not only did all those shortened seasons conclude with a champion, but the NFL is about to complete an entire season with zero cancelled games. Sure, there were delays and postponements, but the fact that no games were cancelled blows my mind. A truly remarkable feat. Is there a chance that a Patriots or Chiefs’ player contracts COVID prior to Super Bowl LV? Of course, there is. It may even be probable, but the NFL has shown us that they will play on (even without a quarterback on the roster). This leaves little doubt in my mind that we will be watching football on February 7, 2021.
We have a little free agent news that broke this week as well. Phillip Rivers has officially retired, and it’s been reported that Matthew Stafford will not be playing for The Lions in 2021. Rivers’ departure makes your decision very easy if you own him: drop him when you are able to for no charge. Jacob Eason may take a slight bump up due to the fact that he is the only possible starter currently on The Colts roster, but a quarterback acquisition over the offseason is likely. It may be even possible that the aforementioned Stafford finds his way to Indy. At any rate, I’ll keep you apprised to any concrete contract changes. For now, here is some Seattle Contract Speculation.
Today we are wrapping up the NFC West. We have already discussed the Cardinals, Rams and 49ers so we will be ending the month with the Seattle Seahawks. Like the 49ers, the Seahawks have an above average number of “noteworthy” free agents this year. In all, I recorded seven players that we need to keep our eyes on over the off season. Those players are:
- Greg Olsen
- Jacob Hollister
- Carlos Hyde
- Phillip Dorsett
- Josh Gordon
- David Moore
- Chris Carson
I won’t be talking about all seven of these players in this article, but I do promise to update you all when/if they sign a new contract. For today though, I’m going to speculate about Carlos Hyde, David Moore and (the man you came here to hear about) Chris Carson.
Carlos Hyde (mentioned in my last article) has been a journeyman running back. He has played for five teams in his seven-year career. Hyde is 30 years old and was on a single year contract worth $2,750,000 in 2020. He started one game this season as Chris Carson is clearly the more talented running back. Hyde had his own injury report this season as he only played in ten games. In the end, he finished RB57 with 83.9 total fantasy points. The outlook for Hyde is as up in the air as any player could be. I don’t expect the Seahawks to re-sign Hyde as Carson is likely to get the large contract. If he does not rejoin the Seattle backfield, look for him to join a team that is in need of a “change of pace back” or in need of insurance for their starting back. In the end, expect Hyde to make similar money to his last contract. A Mike Davis like salary of $3,000,000 per year is in the ballpark.
Yet another talented wide receiver that doesn’t get enough praise. Yes, it is hard to praise a wide receiver who has averaged 26 receptions per season. He is 26 years old and he has just completed a 1-year contract worth $2,133,000. Moore may be best served if he stays in Seattle. He has carved out a nice little niche with Russell Wilson, and he has become a reliable possession and red zone receiver. (Moore caught a career high six touchdowns in 2020.) Also, worth noting that Moore is owned in only 57.73 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. That number is far too low. With the possibility of a team change in the near future, go ahead and pick-up Moore if you have $2,000,000 in cap space remaining. Worst case scenario is that you drop him for free after he resigns a new contract.
The most anticipated free agent signing from the Seahawks is without a doubt Chris Carson. Carson has done nothing but produce fantasy goodness when he is in the lineup. Over the past two years, he has averaged 15.6 fantasy points per game in the games that he’s played in. 15.6 is a very strong foundation to build your running back committee upon. Not bad for someone who made a little over $600,000 in 2020.
However, Carson had a disappointing season for where he was drafted. Missing a fourth of the season due to injury, he was unable to finish the season any higher than RB20. He is 26 years old and is looking to make some serious money with his second contract. He is an unrestricted free agent as he has completed his four-year rookie contract. Spotrac analyzes his “Calculated Market Value” at 7.4 million dollars per year. I’m also expecting a contract around this much per year. I could see the value rise as high as 8 to 9 million per year though.
I would place a range at Todd Gurley 2020 money – Melvin Gordon 2020 money. All in all, if you currently roster Carson and you want to keep him for the foreseeable future, you’re looking at roughly a $7,000,000 increase. If you’re drafting him in a startup, you may be able to swing him in the middle rounds due to his increased price tag. Think about it this way…Carson’s ADP in 2020 startups finished at 49.4. This was for a proven running back that was on a dirt-cheap salary in a run heavy (at least used to be) offense. Yes, he had injury history coming into 2020, but either way Carson was a steal in round 5. Depending on which team picks him up, I expect Carson to fall later than the fourth round again.
Like usual, I’ll be analyzing a contract in my breakdown section. First, we have a quick comparison:
Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner after looking at these two players 16 game pace?
|16 Game Pace||Receptions||Yards||Touchdowns||Fantasy Points|
“Whoa, Jerk are you alright? Do you need to lay down? Those players are nowhere near each other.” These may have been things you were thinking while reading these stats. And yes, it is clear that Alpha is the player everyone would roster. Okay, but their contracts could be separated by more than 15 million dollars per year. Would that change your mind? Well, they could be, but they aren’t.
These two players make exactly the same per year. They are under contract for the same amount of time, and they play on the same team. This is all true because they are the same person. Let me explain…
Alpha is Tyler Lockett’s 16 game pace over his first eight games in 2020. Bravo is Tyler Lockett’s 16 game pace over his final eight games in 2020. I know, I cheated a little, but it does prove a point. Lockett was one of most inconsistent wide receiver’s last season. This is highlighted by games of 33.0, 37.0, and 59.2 fantasy points. It is also worth noting that Tyler had seven games where he recorded less than 10 fantasy points. Second question for you…where do you think Lockett finished the year? Would you be surprised to hear that he was WR8? Because I was. Let’s compare him to similar contracts and see if we can gain any knowledge from that.
|Player Name||Salary||2020 FPs||Age|
Here are all of the “rosterable” wide receivers that make between 10 and 12 million dollars per year. When I say rosterable, I mean that players like Larry Fitzgerald and Tyrell Williams do not qualify. (Quick note on T. Williams: Every time I see that he makes over 11 million dollars per year, I am just as baffled as the first time I saw it.)
So, we can see here that Lockett was the top producing wide receiver in this salary range. At this point in their careers, they are all reaching/in their prime. What’s surprising to me is that Lockett outscored Keenan Allen. Allen had a fantastic season, and he was a player that I was actively trying to trade for in both of my Dynasty Owner leagues. It is a testament to how dominant Lockett was over the first half of the season.
This is what I have to say when it comes to Lockett’s upcoming 2021 season…He is going to be 100 percent owned in Dynasty Owner. There’s no doubt that a player with his ceiling will be fully rostered even with his mid-level salary. If I owned him, I wouldn’t be dropping or amnestying him. I would be a seller for the right price, and that price should hover around a 2nd round 2021 rookie pick.
Thank you for reading and keep an eye out for my video series that will highlight this article. We have completed the NFC West. Next week it’s time to turn our attention to the NFC South. Please follow us on Twitter @DynastyOwner and subscribe to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care and be safe.