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By: Matt TheJerk (@dynastyjerk)
Super Bowl LV is official; it is in the books. Given that this was the biggest game of the entire NFL season, I’m going to give a few observations that I made.
How unbelievable is it that the Chiefs didn’t score a single touchdown? A team that averaged 3.5 touchdowns per game in the regular season was unable to tally one on the biggest stage. What about the fact that Leonard Fournette led the game in touches (20)? Or how about the resurrection of Gronk as he put up six receptions for 67 yards and two touchdowns. Whoever you wanted to win the game; you have to admit that very few predicted a Bucs blowout.
Here is the final point I want to make. Tom Brady was obviously in this game, and over the years, he has become a top target for non-Patriot or Bucs fans to root against. Now, I know that not every fan roots against him, but it is more common that an unbiased fan likes seeing Brady lose instead of winning. Here is what I have to say about that. I’ll use a quote from an unlikely source…
“Everybody loves the underdog, and then they take an underdog and make him a hero, and they hate him. But as long as they can knock you back down, it seems like you’re an underdog again…”
–Fred Durst
Yes, this quote initially had nothing to do with football, but I think it applies perfectly to Brady. Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL draft. He was picked 199 overall by the New England Patriots. He was a modest prospect who performed poorly at the combine. Most of us know what happened after this. He’s won seven Super Bowls, five Super Bowl MVPs, and three MVP awards. Now, based on where he was drafted, wouldn’t you think he would be a perfect “All American Underdog Story?” I would consider it for sure. So the question is…why so much hate for this man? The answer is very nuanced, and it spans over two decades. I’m also not sure I have an excellent concise solution for you. I suppose the hate comes from a combination of his cheating allegations, on-field whining, and just the overall “chip on his shoulder” attitude he’s had his entire NFL career. But I think Fred Durst was on to something with his quote.
We like underdogs in the country. Nay, we love them. A considerable percentage of NCAA fans rooted for 11 seed George Mason in the 2006 NCAA tournament. I sure did. George Mason beat a 6, 3, 7, and 1 source on their way to the Final Four. They eventually lost to the eventual champion, No. 3 seed Florida University. The overwhelming majority of unbiased fans did root for the underdog. I’m not going to list every underdog story to happen in sports, but the question remains: what makes Brady different? Why is there so much hate for the most successful quarterback in NFL history, especially after he had a humble beginning to his career?
I’m guilty as well. I rooted against Brady in 2002 as he was playing my St. Louis Rams, but besides that, I’ve rooted against him mainly because I didn’t want to see the winning streak continue. I knew where he came from. I knew the chip he had on his shoulder. I learned how remarkable his ascent to the GOAT was, but it didn’t matter. I wanted to see him lose because he’d won enough. I feel like a lot of people had the same mentality. As I hinted in my previous article, I was rooting for Brady to win another one last Sunday. Nothing against the Chiefs, but I finally reached the point in my fandom that I said, “if he’s going to be the best, let’s see him do it so that he leaves no doubt in anyone’s mind.” You can love him if you want. You can hate him if you wish. You can be indifferent. None of these positions changes the fact that he is the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
Alright, it time to digress a bit after that long-winded rant. Today we are going to talk about some Bucs’ free agents.
Contract Speculation
The Bucs have a somewhat lengthy list of Dynasty Owner roster able free agents. There are five in all. They are:
- Rob Gronkowski
- Leonard Fournette
- Antonio Brown
- LeSean McCoy
- Chris Godwin
All five of these players are big names and will end up on a roster in 2021. Today we are going to be talking about the three non-running backs. First up is Gronk…
Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement for the 2020 season to join up with longtime teammate Tom Brady. More accurately, he and a seventh-round pick were traded to the Bucs for a New England 2020 fourth-round pick. Because he was traded, Gronk retained his original contract worth $9,000,000 per year for one more year. He becomes an unrestricted free agent this year and looks to resign with the Bucs if he doesn’t retire. In my opinion, those are the only two options Gronk would consider. I highly doubt he would be willing to move onto another team (especially without Brady), but given how his season ended this year, he may be ready to sign a single year deal with Tampa Bay. I see Rob making right around what he is making this year. Anything in the 8-10 million dollar range will probably be his going value. There is another scenario where he would purposely take less contracted money and add bonuses and incentives to make him whole. After all, if he doesn’t get the money he is seeking, he can retire again. Expect him back for the Bucs in 2021.
Next up are a pair of wide receivers. Obviously the Bucs are bound by their cap situation, as is every team, but I think Brady plays a significant role in bringing back (if either of them). Of course, I am talking about Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. The Bucs signed AB in October 2020 to a single year contract worth $1,666,667. This was a steal of a deal for Brown’s talent level, but it was also a place for him to show his commitment to seriously playing in the NFL again. In eight games in 2020, he posted 45 receptions, 483 yards, and four touchdowns. This was good for 117.2 fantasy points. Let’s expand those stats out for an entire season and see who he would compare to…
| 2020 Salary | 2020 FPs (16 Game Pace) | |
| J. Smith-Schuster | $1,048,945 | 231.1 |
| An. Brown | $1,666,667 | 234.2 |
| A. Cooper | $20,000,000 | 236.8 |
| R. Woods | $6,800,000 | 243 |
| B. Cooks | $16,200,000 | 265.1 |
| K. Allen | $11,250,000 | 277 |
If we look at an entire 16 game season based on average fantasy points per game, all of these players are in the same ballpark. This isn’t to say that AB will immediately get a Cooper type contract, but he will no doubt command more money than last season. We also need to talk about his teammate, Chris Godwin. Godwin is set for a large contract given his elite route running, above-average hands, and his ability to pick up yards after the catch. Quick, name the top three wide receivers in catch percentage in 2020. To qualify, they have to have over 80 targets. Are you able to name all three of them? Here they are:
| Targets | Catch Percentage | |
| Curtis Samuel | 97 | 79.4 |
| Chris Godwin | 84 | 77.4 |
| Davante Adams | 149 | 77.2 |
There are your top three for the 2020 NFL season. It is much more impressive what Davante did as he has 65 more targets than Godwin, but the point still stands…Godwin is an amazingly reliable receiver and would be a welcomed addition to any franchise. Unfortunately, something is going to have to give. As Tim, Steve, and I speculated about last year, I expect Godwin to make north of 16 million per year, and it could easily be north of 20 million per year. Given their cap situation for 2021, I don’t see how Tampa Bay could re-sign both AB and Godwin, but I think they will do everything they can to try. My gut is that Brown will be resigned as he will be on a lighter deal than Godwin. Godwin will likely be franchise tagged as Tampa Bay looks to “run it back” next season. No matter where Godwin falls if you own him in Dynasty Owner, you need to be making plans to free up your cap room now.
Contract Breakdown
With all the star power the Bucs have going into free agency this offseason, it’s challenging to find a worthy player to break down that isn’t set to be a free agent. So, I’m going to cheat a little bit. Let’s talk about Uncle Lenny and have our first combined speculation and breakdown of the season. The Buccaneers signed Leonard Fournette to a single year contract worth $2,000,000. This signing occurred after he was released by the Jaguars earlier in the 2020 preseason. Following his release from the Jags, Fournette’s dynasty outlook was up in the air as much as any player could be. We had an aging running back with an injury history who had just been released from a team that seemed like it couldn’t afford to lose running back depth. Well, Tampa Bay and Bruce Arians resurrected Lenny’s career and made him a serviceable backup to Ronald Jones. Fournette finished the 2020 season as the RB36 while missing four games. He finished with 97 rushes for 367 yards and six touchdowns. More impressively, he added 36 receptions for 233 yards. Like what we looked at for Antonio Brown, let’s see when Fournette would fall amongst his peers if he had played a full season…
| Rush | Rush Yds | TDs | Rec | RecYards | Fantasy Points | |
| L. Fournette | 129 | 489 | 8 | 48 | 310 | 178.7 |
| C. Edmonds | 97 | 448 | 5 | 53 | 403 | 176.8 |
| T. Gurley | 208 | 723 | 9 | 27 | 175 | 178.3 |
| ??? | 85 | 365 | 3 | 80 | 589 | 188.4 |
Once again, this is looking at all four of these players’ seasons had they played all 16 games and stayed on their season average for all their stats. What we notice right away is that Fournette’s production falls directly in line with Gurley and Edmonds, which would have put him well for right around RB25.
But who is this mystery running back? Does anyone have any guesses? This player was second in running back receptions and LEAD all running backs in targets. ** I’ll reveal the answer at the end of the article. Regardless, this mystery player finished at RB19 and is right on pace where Fournette’s 16 game pace would have landed him. So, what have we learned? We know that Lenny was productive enough to earn himself a 2021 contract, but where will it be, and how much will it be worth? The latter is more comfortable to answer. Spotrac currently has Fournette’s “Calculated Market Value” at four years and a little over 32 million dollars. This would put him right around 8.1 million dollars per year. At this moment, I don’t see the Bucs resigning Fournette. This is for a couple of reasons. First, we already discussed how he deserves his market value, and it is probably going to be too much for Tampa Bay to want to take on. Second is the fact that they still have an above-average running back in Ronald Jones for another year. Third is the fact that the Bucs have Ke’Shawn Vaughn on a rookie deal for three more years and the potential to re-sign LeSean McCoy to a contract a third the size that Fournette would want. It sounds disgusting to say it out loud, but I believe Vaughn and McCoy could combine for Fournette’s production if he is no longer in Tampa Bay. This is combined with the idea that Ronald Jones will become more of a workhorse and goal-line back in 2021. Again, some of this is speculation, but that’s what I’m here for. I’m here to get Owners ready for free agency because it will hit fast when it gets here.
Thank you for reading and be sure to watch the video that relates to this article. Next week I’ll be writing about the Carolina Panthers and one of my most anticipated free agents. Please follow us on Twitter @DynastyOwner and subscribe to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care and be safe.
**J.D. McKissic in the mystery running back. Unreal…
TheJerk