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Contract Speculation & Trades: Jacksonville Jaguars

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By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)

The Jaguars are the envy of the NFL. Well, that’s kind of true and false. At this exact moment, I would say they are in a pretty enviable spot. They are about to acquire one of the most hyped quarterbacks of my lifetime. They were not always in this spot though, not even by the Jets. Starting in the second half of the season, the Jaguars looked as if they were going to cruise to a 2nd or 3rd overall pick. The Jets then decided that in Week 15, they didn’t want to be winless on the season. In Week 15 and 16, they won two games in a row, and both teams that they beat made the playoffs. Now, I would never openly root or advise that a team should purposely lose a game, but if there was ever a time to do it, I think this was it. I can guarantee you I would have been wanting a winless season if I were a Jets fan. Regardless, Jacksonville’s lone win came in Week 1 and they are in sole possession of the Trevor Lawrence Lottery Ticket.

You know what else they have? They have the most favorable cap situation of any NFL team. They are 70 million dollars under the cap at this moment. Expect quite a few moves by Jacksonville this offseason and in the offseasons to come. They won’t turn into a contending team overnight or over a year, but they have every opportunity to begin this rebuild and turn it into a success. With that being said, let’s talk news…

The News

(Full Disclosure:  I wrote this article a little early so there will be quite a few signed contracts that I won’t mention. They will be included in next week’s article though.)

Younghoe Koo has been signed to a one year contract by the Falcons. I don’t have exact details on the contract just yet, but he will remain a Falcon.

Mark Ingram has been signed by the Texans to a single year contract worth 3 million dollars per year. This move looks to immediately move Ingram into the RB2 role for Houston in the wake of Duke Johnson’s release last month. Regardless, I expect David Johnson to be the back that sees the majority of the carries for 2021.

Speaking of David Johnson…he has agreed to reduce his pay to $6,000,000 for the 2021 season. This is great news for Owners that currently roster him. His salary just became much more manageable. 

Contract Speculation

Like the Colts, the Jags have several notable free agents. Here is my full list of “rosterable” free agents…

PlayerStatusPrevious Contract/YearPercent Rostered in DO
Keelan ColeUFA$3,259,00086.6
Chris ConleyUFA$2,297,50040.2
Chris ThompsonUFA$1,400,00077.3
Dede WestbrookUFA$769,03960.8
Tyler EifertUFA$4,750,00031.9
Dare OgunbowaleERFA$540,00059.8

I’m going to focus more on the pass catchers in this article as they are the higher priority players. Let’s start with the most expensive wide receiver, Keelan Cole. Cole is a four year veteran of the NFL who has played only for the Jaguars. He is 27 years old and will be expiring a single year extension that was worth $3,259,000. Cole was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and honestly, he has put up numbers you would expect from a UDFA. He has never amassed more than 55 receptions, 775 yards, or five touchdowns in a season. I expect $4,000,000/year to be the top level money that he could make. Jacksonville does have a great deal of cap room so they can certainly afford to bring him back, but the emergence of Shenault and Chark places Cole as the WR3 at best.

Trade Advice:  Cole is rostered in 86.6 of DO leagues as he should be. He was a wide receiver on a very cheap salary that finished as WR45. While he probably didn’t find his way into your starting lineup often, he was still a value. A bench spot was a perfect place to keep Cole throughout 2020. Any trade for him at this moment would be a roll of the dice. I’ll pass for now.

If Cole was average in 2020, then it’d be safe to call Chris Conley well below average. Conley passed 10 fantasy points only twice in 2020 en route to a WR89 finish. The hard truth is that he was just not able to be relied on. Remember the benchmark I made for Cole? He hasn’t passed 55 receptions, 775 yards, and five touchdowns. Well the same applies to Conley. He hasn’t reached beyond any of those stats in any season for his career. Somewhat more disappointing is the fact that Conley was drafted in the third round of the 2015 NFL draft. 3rd round picks miss all the time, but it’s still tough to see it when it happens. (I’m not saying Conley is a bad football player or that he hasn’t performed the way his team has needed him to. What I’m saying is that from a fantasy and dynasty perspective, he has been below average.)  Cole is only 18 months away from being 30 years old. It’s hard to see him being this late of a bloomer and so his DO value is going to take a hit. It would also be hard to see him make anything over $4,000,000/year, similar to Cole.

Trade Advice:  I’ll make this one simple…If you own him, hold until he receives his new contract. If he’s available in Free Agent Auction, I would leave him there. If he’s rostered on another team, I wouldn’t try to make an offer.

If Cole was average in 2020 and Conley was well below average in 2020, then it’d be safe to say that Dede Westbrook was almost nonexistent. That statement is true, and it’s a little personal for me. I drafted Dede in both of my Dynasty Owner startups in 2020. I had him marked as a high value guy who kept falling in mocks for some reason. Well, I drafted him and it may have been the worst mistake I made all draft. If you didn’t own him in any league, you may not know how bad it actually was. Here are Westbrook’s 2020 season stats…

ReceptionsYardsTouchdowns
Dede Westbrook140

That isn’t a joke. Dede played in only two games this season. He caught only a single pass and had 133 punt return yards. That’s it!  How does a player who averaged 66 receptions, 688 yards and four touchdowns over the 2018 and 2019 season drop to a single reception in 2020? Regardless of what the answer is, Dede will do better in 2021. He has to do better. The fact that 2020 was a lost season for him will certainly drive down his upcoming contract. The Jags have shown that they don’t think they need him on their team so it would surprise me if he returns for a fifth year in Jacksonville. The 27 year old will look to take his talents somewhere other than the “Gateway to Florida.”

Trade Advice:  I actually think I would be a buyer for Westbrook. The price to acquire him couldn’t be lower so why not. I think a small amount of Dynasty Dollars might be able to get this one agreed upon.

[10 DD for Dede Westbrook]

Now that I’ve completed the free agent wide receivers, let me ask you this trivia question…Which Jacksonville wide receiver led the team in DO fantasy points in 2020? I’ll reveal the answer at the end of the article.

Tyler Eifert will reportedly be leaving the Jaguars and testing himself in free agency. Usually I don’t like to read into rumors too much, but even without the reports, I figured Eifert would move on. So what does that mean if he does? Eifert is a 30 year old tight end with a history of injuries. Notice how i didn’t say “injury prone?”  I’ve always hated that designation, and I think it’s unfair to the player. But it is a fact that the majority of Eifert’s NFL seasons have been cut short due to injury. In fact, he has only played all 16 games in one of his eight NFL seasons. His most notable season came back in 2015 where he put up 52 receptions, 615 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. All three of those feats remain career highs.

This is what I expect from Eifert as we look towards 2021. I think he will leave Jacksonville and look to join a team with tight end deficiency. The most likely places he could land are: Chicago, Cincinnati, LA (Chargers), or Philadelphia (assuming Ertz is traded). I’m not sure a franchise will trust him as their primary receiving tight end, but he will work into the mix somewhere. I also wouldn’t expect his contract to be north of $5,000,000 per year as he is starting to become “old” for a tight end.

Trade Advice:  Not much worth trading for here. If Jonnu Smith’s going rate is a 2021 3rd, then I can’t see Eifert’s being anywhere close to that. Maybe try some Dynasty Dollars if you are desperate for a tight end or use him as a throw piece for an already existing trade. Either way, I don’t think he has much stand alone trade value.

I just want to mention the final two free agents, and they are both running backs. First is Dare Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale is an exclusive rights free agent (ERFA). We’ve talked about this in the past, but I will recap. Being an ERFA, he has zero leverage. If the Jaguars want to extend a single year qualifying offer to him, then he has to accept it. This “offer” is the league minimum. However, if the team decides not to extend an offer, he is free to enter free agency and sign with any team. His previous team received no potential compensation for losing him. In my humble opinion, there are few reasons why a team shouldn’t offer an ERFA one more year. Dare is a player that should be extended the offer. While his production was limited in 2020, he adds valuable running back depth to the worst team in the NFL last year. Bottom line:  Expect Dare to be with the Jaguars for one more season. Conversely Chris Thompson is an unrestricted free agent. Thompson is the player that most fantasy owners thought would lead the Jacksonville backfield after Leonard Fournette was released in the preseason. Well, quite the contrary. Thompson received only seven rushes and 20 receptions for 166 total yards. It also doesn’t help that he hurt his back in Week 10 against the Packers. He exited the game and did not return for the rest of the season. I have absolutely zero info on Thompson’s back, but I know that teams will be hyperfocusing on it prior to offering him a contract. We will wait and see if he receives an offer. 

Thank you for reading, and be sure to watch the video that relates to this article. My next article will be covering the final team in the AFC South, and the team tied for the least “rosterable” free agents. The Houston Texans. We may even get into some Deshaun Watson rumors. Please follow us on Twitter @Dynasty_Owner, and subscribe to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

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