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By: Matt “TheJerk” Morrison (@DynastyJerk)
As we move closer to the new NFL year and the opening of free agency, I’m going to start to adjust my article format. Over the next couple of months, I will have my article full of real, updated contracts. The hope is that this new info will take up the majority of my writings. Therefore, I’m going to continue to do team speculations, but I’m going to be dropping non free agent contract breakdowns. This will allow me to focus more on new contracts and what it means for us as Owners. With that said, here is the news over the past week…
The News
Ty Montgomery signed a single year contract worth $1,127,500. He resigned with the Saints and this contract is comparable to his previous. With no change in team and a similar salary amount, look for Monty to carry the same value as he did in 2020. He will, presumably, be the third string running back on a team struggling with the cap. Bottom line…there hasn’t been much change in his Dynasty Owner status.
Ross Dwelley also signed a single year extension with his team, the San Francisco 49ers. It places him as the probable backup to one of the most productive tight ends in football. My expectation is that Jordan Reed will exit San Fran and look to sign somewhere else.
Dak Prescott signed his new deal with the Cowboys. This contract is worth 160 million over four years or 40 million dollars per year. Anyone that wants to continue to own him will have to pay roughly 9 million dollars more than 2020.
Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson have both been franchise tagged. I don’t have their exact numbers at this moment, but we do know that Robinson will make more than Godwin given the fact that he has been franchised two consecutive years.
The final bit of info I want to mention is that the franchise window closed on March 9th. We are now past the deadline where teams can franchise, or transition tag a player.
Contract Speculation
The Tennessee Titans are the next team up for discussion. As I mentioned in my previous article, they finished atop the AFC South, but were eliminated in the Wild Card round. For our speculation today, I have three players that are rosterable in Dynasty Owner leagues that are soon to be free agents. They are…
| Player | Status | Previous Contract | Percent Rostered in DO |
| Corey Davis | UFA | $6,348,672/year | 97.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | UFA | $776,572/year | 100 |
| Anthony Firkser | RFA | $660,000/year | 63.9 |
One of these last names is not like the other. (I had to take a break from football to look up the stats on this. It turns out Davis and Smith both find their way into the Top 10 for most common last names in the USA. However, Firkser finds itself in the 282,354 spot. Apparently, there are only 63 people in the USA with that last name.) My apologies, but I found that interesting especially when you look at the other names, I’m comparing him to.
So first up we have Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser. Both of these players are tight ends, and they both obviously hindered the others’ production throughout the season. Jonnu finished the 2020 season as the TE15 with essentially two missed games due to a knee injury. Smith was wildly inconsistent throughout the year. He posted only two games that were above 13.6 fantasy points while he had six games with less than 10. Not exactly the most reliable player you want heading your tight end committee, but I suppose there were very few you could say that about in 2020. Regardless, Smith’s rookie contract is expiring, and he will look to make around $8,000,000 per year according to Spotrac. Smith is 25 years old and seems to be reaching the prime of his career. As I stated, he had a very rocky 2020 season. He was targeted only 65 times, and that ranks 18th among tight ends. The Titans actually have a decent cap situation heading into 2021. While they are below the league average for space (a little over $15,000,000), they should have no problem retaining Smith with relative ease if they’d like to.
Trade Advice: If you were unhappy with Jonnu’s production in 2020, just wait until he’s making between 7-9 million dollars. His value just won’t be there. I would not be a buyer personally. If you are set on the idea that he will have a “second contract breakout”, I’d want to pay no more than a late round rookie pick for him.
[2021 mid 3rd for Jonnu Smith]
[Andy Dalton for Jonnu Smith]
Anthony Firkser is up next. Firkser finished the 2020 season as the TE26. This was almost entirely due to his Week 6 performance against the Texans. In that game, he had eight receptions, 113 yards and one touchdown. Here are his yearly averages with and without that game…
| Firkser | Rec/Game | Yards/Game | Touchdowns/Game | FP/Game |
| With Week 6 | 2.8 | 27.6 | 0.1 | 5.9 |
| Without Week 6 | 2.4 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 |
This isn’t the most awe-striking table ever made, but it does prove a point…The point is that Firkser archived 30 percent of his fantasy production in a single game.
It was a fluke. It happened, yes, but it was unlikely to happen again. (Oddly enough, this was not a game where Jonnu Smith missed.)
Firkser is 26 years old and will be a restricted free agent. He will make more money in 2021, but don’t expect it to be a lot. I’ll put him right around 3 million per year for now.
Trade Advice: With Firkser being available in one third of Dynasty Owner leagues, I would check the Free Agent Auction first. If he is available and you have an extra spot, then I would pick him up. There’s no doubt he’s worth rostering for now. I can’t advise sending a trade for him. There’s just too much uncertainty with his many possible career paths. Hold if you own and stay away if you don’t.
Our final speculation today Corey Davis. To begin, I’ll quote you something from one of my very first articles for Dynasty Owner.
“Corey Davis had the big volume game that his Owners have been waiting for. He totaled seven receptions. This is only the second time in his career he’s had seven or more receptions and it’s something he didn’t do at all last year. Davis is owned in 74% of Dynasty Owner leagues as his yearly salary is 6.3 million. If you don’t own him, I wouldn’t be rushing out to pick him up.”
This was written immediately after Davis’ Week 1 performance of seven receptions, 101 yards and 17.1 fantasy points. Well, in hindsight this advice was dead wrong. I wrongly assumed that Davis’ 2020 season would look similar to his 2019 season. In his 2019 season, he registered over 10 fantasy points only twice. He had an ADP of 234 last offseason. As I mentioned, he was owned in 74% of DO leagues. It turns out that buying low was the correct option. Here is what the 26-year-old Davis did in 2020…
| Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | FP | |
| C. Davis | 65 | 984 | 5 | 190.4 |
Some may consider this a lackluster season due to his middle range salary and WR30 finish, but I would argue it was a very solid season. He outperformed similarly ranked players in terms of value (DD/FP). Davis ($33,344) outperformed Tyler Boyd ($56,048), Robby Anderson ($44,803), Jamison Crowder ($54,410) and even Devante Parker ($46,128) in terms of value. Oh, and he missed four games on the season. Very solid. Here is what I consider the best part though…
We know Davis will make more money in 2021 than he did in 2020, but I don’t see it being too much more. I think the upper limit for “Davis money” is 12 million per year. That’s the upper limit…Spotrac has a Calculated Market Value of 9.8 million dollars per year for Davis. If he signs a contract worth that amount, he will once again be a steal in drafts and value. The big question, as it is with every free agent, is where will he sign?
Trade Advice: Unlike most of the free agents I’ve speculated on, Davis has quite a bit of value. If you are looking to acquire him, it may take more than you think. I would start the conversation with something like this…
[James Conner for Corey Davis]
[Cam Akers for David Montgomery and Corey Davis]
[Early 2021 2nd for Corey Davis]
Thank you for reading and be sure to watch the video that relates to this article. My next article will be covering the Jacksonville Trevor Lawrence. Sorry, I meant to say the Jacksonville Jaguars. Please follow us on Twitter @Dynasty_Owner and subscribe to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk