Rookie Draft Examples from 2020 and Scenarios for 2021

By Steven Van Tassell

Rookie drafts are new and coming to Dynasty Owner in less than a week! June 4th at Noon is the starting date for all rookie drafts for existing Dynasty Owner leagues. If you’re in a league that played in 2020, whether you played last year or bought the team from another Dynasty Owner or the Orphan store, your rookie draft is coming up soon.
We started Dynasty Owner rookie draft preparation last week by reviewing rookie contracts and how much salary cap room your Dynasty Owner team needs (https://dynastyowner.com/2021/05/salary-cap-room-for-2021-rookie-drafts/). To summarize for those of you who haven’t read the article or seen the video, for most Dynasty Owners with a “normal” number of draft picks, the range of salary cap room that you should be targeting is between $5.7 million and $26.4 million. There are other scenarios and extremes out there, but at least $5.7 million should give your team a good base to draft some rookies. It won’t get you any of the top six picks in the NFL draft (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle), but it should get you three or four solid draft picks. For those of you who want one of those six guys listed above, you’ll need more which is where the $26.4 million figure comes into play.
Regardless of your salary cap situation, it’s time to start getting prepared. Looking forward at projections for 2021 and analyzing how rookies are going to perform will help, but so will looking at how Dynasty Owners could have constructed a rookies-only draft in 2020 before diving into possible 2021 draft scenarios. Let’s do both!
All information listed are based on the salaries available on Dynasty Owner as of May 28th. All 2020 overall ADP listed are based on data from all 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts. Dynasty Owner fantasy points scored are based on the entire 16-game NFL season for 2020.

2020 Rookie “Draft” Examples
While we didn’t have official rookie-only drafts in Dynasty Owner in 2020, we can simulate a rookie draft by looking at 2020 overall draft ADP and ranking rookies based on where they were selected. The first rookie off the board, on average, in 2020 drafts was Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) who had an ADP of 9.2. He would have likely been the top selection in most rookie-only drafts as the next highest ranked rookie was Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) who had an ADP of 16.3. After that, it drops down to Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) and J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) with ADPs of 26.7 and 27.5 respectively.
All in all, there are hundreds of thousands of potential 2020 rookie “drafts” and likely no two Dynasty Owners would have drafted the same. However, let’s look at some possible three round 2020 “drafts” with one pick per round.

Best Draft – Top Rookie at 3 Positions (Total Salary = $10,688,722)

Player

Justin Jefferson

Justin Herbert

James Robinson

Position

WR

QB

RB

Overall ADP

81.2

101.5

231.1

Salary

$3,280,701

$6,644,688

$763,333

Points

273.2

431.7

259.4

Obviously, the best pick on this list is James Robinson. However, if a rookie draft were held last year in early June, almost nobody would have taken him. Not even if your team name was Nostradamus. However, if your team name was Quaranteed for Greatness, then you did as our Ring runner-up drafted Robinson with the #283 pick in their draft on June 27th. In most of those early drafts, he was selected. That’s how you win the Ring (or almost win it)!
Jefferson had the 11th highest ADP for a rookie (and fourth among WRs after Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Reagor), so he likely would have mostly been a first round rookies-only pick, while Herbert had the 16th highest ADP, so he counts as a second rounder. Both of them plus Robinson finished 2020 as the rookie at their position with the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Did anybody else, besides Quaranteed for Greatness who took all three of them, draft rookies this well in 2020?

Best Value – Rookies with Best DD/PT (Total Salaries = $3,650,648)

Player

Antonio Gibson

Chase Claypool

James Robinson

Position

RB

WR

RB

Overall ADP

86.0

156.3

231.1

Salary

$1,233,159

$1,654,156

$763,333

2020 Points

202.4

211.9

259.4

All three of these players had values of less than $8,000 Dynasty Dollars per Point (DD/PT) in 2020. Gibson was the 12th rookie drafted on average, while Claypool was the 26th drafted, so they are the best “first” and “second” round picks. Robinson was by far and away the best value rookie in 2020 with a DD/PT of only $2,943.

Worst #1 = Lowest Scoring Rookies (Total Salary = $8,223,173)

Player

Jalen Reagor

Henry Ruggs

Justin Rohrwasser

Position

WR

WR

K

Overall ADP

74.9

89.7

190.9

Salary

$3,317,669

$4,167,906

$737,598

2020 Points

87.6

88.6

0.0

For me, the worst pick on this list is Justin Rohrwasser (K – Free Agent) as he had the sixth lowest kicker ADP and was drafted very highly for a kicker (ADP 190.9, or at the end of the 16th round on average), didn’t play at all so his Dynasty Owners got no production and they either had to keep him on their roster all season or drop him and pay $737,598 in Dynasty Dollars to do so. At least Reagor and Ruggs scored some points and will have time to develop and maybe be worth their salaries in the future, not so for Rohrwasser. Regardless of who you think is the worst of the bunch, this rookies-only draft would have cost you over $8.2 million in salary cap room last season.

Worst #2 = Lowest Scoring Rookies (Total Salary = $10,581,438)

Player

Jalen Reagor

Henry Ruggs

Jordan Love

Position

WR

WR

QB

Overall ADP

74.9

89.7

174.7

Salary

$3,317,669

$4,167,906

$3,095,863

2020 Points

87.6

88.6

0.0

This “draft” is filled with all 2020 NFL first round draft picks, but in general, Dynasty Owners likely could have drafted them in a three-round rookie draft and regretted it tremendously last year. Jordan Love also had 0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and cost almost $3.1 million, but Dynasty Owners who took him in 2020 start-up drafts were unlikely to be thinking that he’d help their teams last year. If you drafted Rohrwasser, that’s clearly what you were thinking, which is why I rank the Rohrwasser draft as #1 and the Love draft as #2. This rookies-only draft would have cost you almost $10.6 million in salary cap room last season, or almost 10% of the overall $110 million draft salary pool.

Five 2021 Dynasty Owner Rookie Draft Scenarios
It’s 2021 now and we have rookie-only drafts for the first time in Dynasty Owner. No more “projecting” where rookies would have gone based on their overall draft selection ADP, we can do it for real in less than a week.
While we have a recommended amount of cap room to have on hand, what exactly can you get for $5.7 million or even less than that amount? Let’s look at some salaries and rookie mock draft ADP and find out. We will try to be realistic here and not say you can draft three players with ADPs of under 10.0 with a first, second and third round pick – that’s unlikely to happen and if it does, then get in touch with me when there’s an opening in your league.
We’re also not going to look at rookie draft scenarios for teams with more than $5.7 million in salary cap room. Let’s face it, if you have more salary cap room than that, your Dynasty Owner team can pretty much draft any available player you want (regardless of salary). It’s just a question of who’s available and which players you like best, not the salary restrictions that will impact many Dynasty Owners.
We’ll use the current rookie mock draft ADP listed on Dynasty Owner (as of the morning of Friday, May 28th) to decide the round a player will likely be drafted.

Early Round Picks, Low Salary Cap Space Available ($5.7 million)
Let’s say you had a bad 2020 season, secured early round draft picks and didn’t trade them away. Your team tried, but didn’t win the 1.13 pick. You still have your three picks though, one per round. However, you’re in a tight salary cap spot and only have the low end of our salary cap range available to you. Who can you likely draft?

Player

Najee Harris

Trey Sermon

Rhamondre Stevenson

Position

RB

RB

RB

Team

PIT

SF

NE

Overall ADP

1.6

12.2

27.1

Salary

$3,261,861

$1,218,233

$1,057,264

Three rounds, three RBs for less than $5.7 million ($5,537,358). If you have the #1 pick or are fortunate that the team with the #1 pick does not take Harris, then you could walk away with these three RBs for the low-end recommended salary amount. While Sermon’s ADP is 12.2, he’s the 13th player off the board so he counts as a second rounder for our purposes here.
There are many players that you could swap out for Stevenson in the third round here. Late second round NFL picks such as Tutu Atwell (WR – LAR) and D’Wayne Eskridge (WR – SEA) are just under $1.5 million in salary each ($1,477,175 for Atwell and $1,488,376 for Eskridge) and have almost identical rookie ADPs (25.9 for Atwell and 26.0 for Eskridge). Either one would keep your rookie salaries under $6 million. If you have just $5.7 million left, then you’ve got your choice of any player available for under $1.22 million in salary after drafting Harris and Sermon.

Mid-Round Picks, Low Salary Cap Space Available ($5.7 million)
Let’s say you did ok, but not great. Either barely missed the playoffs or made it and lost in the first round. No bonus pick for you either, but since you were in the middle of the pack, you didn’t gut your draft capital for a playoff run and still have all three of them, one per round. Same as the first scenario though and you’re in a tight salary cap spot and only have the low end of our salary cap range available to you. You’re not getting Najee Harris for sure as he’ll be gone, but your team still could use at least a RB or two. Who can you likely draft?

Player

Travis Etienne

Chubba Hubbard

Pat Friermuth

Josh Palmer

Position

RB

RB

TE

WR

Team

JAX

CAR

PIT

LAC

Overall ADP

6.5

18.6

29.3

30.3

Salary

$3,224,526,

$1,048,294

$1,507,045

$1,258,365

Two RBs and a receiver (WR/TE) for right around $5.7 million ($5,779,865 for option A and $5,531,185 for option B). Depending upon if your Dynasty Owner team needs a WR or TE more and if you can go over $5.7 million. If you can’t but want Friermuth then substitute Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) and his $953,882 salary for Hubbard. There are plenty of options for the third pick here depending on your needs and cap space. Friermuth is the high end here, while you could as low as any undrafted rookie free agent to pair with Etienne and Hubbard and be under $5.1 million (under $5 million if you draft Gainwell instead of Hubbard).

Mid-Round Picks, Lower Salary Cap Space Available ($4.5 million)
What happens if you’re not an Etienne fan or don’t want Hubbard since you’re not a CMC owner (or for another reason), there are options for you in the mid-round picks and you can do this scenario for less than $4.5 million. What does that draft look like?

Player

Javonte Williams

Amari Rodgers

Position

RB

WR

Team

DEN

GB

Overall ADP

7.3

22.0

Salary

$2,216,438

$1,224,974

Williams and Rodgers plus anybody taken after the middle of the fourth round of the NFL draft can be yours for less than $4.5 million. Either Kene Nwangwu (RB – MIN) and his $1,058,200 salary or Rhamondre Stevenson would take you right up to the $4.5 million your team has available, while an undrafted rookie free agent would keep you around $4.25 million.

Late Round Picks, Low Salary Cap Space Available ($5.7 million)
Congratulations to you if your Dynasty Owner team is in this position because you probably won your league, or got to the finals and lost, and you kept all of your draft picks. Regardless of whether you won or lost in the title game, you made quite a few Dynasty Dollars and even some money if you’re in a cash league. Now, it’s time to continue your dynasty in 2021. Because you’ve got late round picks and not a lot of cap room, all of the early NFL draft picks and the cheaper players who are going early in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts are going to be off the board for your team. Likely no Travis Etienne or Javonte Williams for you as they have already been taken. What your draft plans?

Player

Michael Carter

Kadarius Toney

Position

RB

WR

Team

NYJ

NYG

Overall ADP

12.1

20.9

Salary

$1,071,842

$3,429,877

I’m not recommending a third rounder here, because after spending just over $4.5 million ($4,501,719) on the first two picks, you can have any available player taken in the fourth round or later in the NFL draft or any undrafted rookie free agent and still get under $5.7 million. A rookie free agent making the minimum of $808,333 in salary would even get your rookie draft salaries at just over $5.31 million. At the high end, Dez Fitzpatrick (WR – TEN) who was taken with the fourth pick in the fourth round and will make $1,069,951 would nudge your rookie salaries to $5,571,670.

Any Round Picks, Very Low Salary Cap Space Available ($3.0 million or less)
This could be anyone with some high salary players that they didn’t want to drop or trade for pennies on the dollars. Your team doesn’t have to draft all undrafted rookie free agents, but needs a first round pick with pretty low salary to avoid that fate. If you’re fortunate, then Michael Carter will be there or maybe Trey Sermon, but his salary is a bit higher.

Player

Michael Carter

Trey Sermon

Javian Hawkins

Position

RB

RB

TE

Team

NYJ

SF

ATL

Overall ADP

12.1

12.2

23.2

Salary

$1,071,842

$1,218,233

$810,000

I’m not recommending a third rounder here, because after spending less than $2 million ($1,881,842 for Option A with Carter) on the first two picks, you are in the same position as the previous scenario and can have any available player taken in the fourth round or later in the NFL draft or any undrafted rookie free agent and still get under $3 million. A rookie free agent making the minimum of $808,333 in salary would get your rookie draft salaries at just under $2.7 million, while Dez Fitzpatrick would jump your rookie draft salary pool up to just a bit over $2.95 million.
For those of you who can get Sermon here, you’ve got less than $1 million left since you spent $2,028,233 already. All of the undrafted rookies are still in play as is anybody drafted in the fifth round or later. Sorry, but you can’t have of those WRs/TEs taken in the fourth round and Sermon. Maybe either one of the TEs, such as Luke Farrell (TE – JAC) or Brevin Jordan (TE – HOU), taken at the top of the fifth round in the NFL draft who make just under $1 million here.

Conclusions
As you can see, the scenarios are endless. With 171 rookies in the draft pool now, there are a myriad of combinations of players that you can draft with as little as $3 million in salary cap room. If you have more than that, your options just keep increasing. For $5.7 million, the only restrictions are that you can’t have any of the top six picks in the NFL draft.
As we can see from our 2020 examples, the best rookies of 2020 would have only cost your Dynasty Owner team just under $10.7 million. It’s possible to have had a great “rookie” draft last year for as little as $3.65 million, or draft three first rounders, spend almost $10.6 million and come away with not much production in 2020. That $10.6 million draft could turn out ok in the long run, but right now, those Dynasty Owners spent a lot of salary for few Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
We’ll keep going on the rookie draft theme next week and look at rookie ADP from both rookie mock drafts and actual Dynasty Owner start-up drafts, so you can start thinking about who might be available when you’re on the clock. If some rookie drafts wrap up early or even progress pretty far, a look at real rookie ADP might be in order in two weeks to help Dynasty Owners who have rookie drafts moving much slower.
Regardless of your league, Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty and win your league. Some new videos to accompany the weekly articles have been posted and more are coming every week from now on. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern). My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released on Saturdays throughout the off-season. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Wednesdays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will get his insights on Fridays.
Please read all of their articles and follow all of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful as you prepare for the first-ever Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Full 3 Round Rookie Mock Draft

By Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

In Dynasty Owner you will find that the most efficient way to build your roster is having players that perform well on cheap contracts. The best way to find those players on cheap contracts happens to be in your rookie drafts. I wanted to do something completely different from the norm this week to help prepare owners for draft day and I would not have been able to pull it off without fellow Dynasty Owner Tom Ayling (@Flanker546). Please go and give him a follow for his help with this week’s content!

This week we are going to do a full 3-round rookie mock draft to give owners a sense of what to expect come June 4th. When starting the mock, I asked Tom to go into the draft trying to think as a rebuilding owner in a vacuum, while I did the same with my picks. I have a feeling after looking at this draft compared to the ADP on the platform, you will see that many of this year’s Dynasty Owner rookie drafts will turn out vastly different. One of the best parts of Dynasty Owner that I have found is no matter how much you try to understand the way everyone else values players, it always ends up playing out different then you had expected.

I figured since Tom was generous enough to help with this mock draft, I would let him take the 1.01 and that was a mistake as it was the start of Tom sniping many of my favorite rookies! I found myself taking the best talent on the board in many cases with thoughts of trading players later down the road, especially the running backs who I feel can net tremendous value from contenders in trades. I did not ask much behind Tom’s thoughts on his picks, but I will give a brief reasoning on why each player was picked in the first two rounds. I will not say much on the third rounders as I have covered a lot of them over the previous two weeks.

Tom – Odd number picks.

Jay – Even number picks.

Round 1

  1. Trevor Lawrence (4 years, $9,198,372)- Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence was this draft’s clear cut best player and as a rebuilding owner you can never go wrong adding a player like that to your roster. I would tend to think if you are a rebuilding owner you were having issues at the quarterback position. Salary for Lawrence is pricey compared to some of the other rookies, but if he turns out as expected this pick should be a home run.

2. Najee Harris (4 years, $3,261,861)- Running back, Pittsburgh Steelers

I know I preach to avoid running backs early in rebuilds but not all rebuilds are the same, plus Najee Harris is a Steeler. If I am a rebuilding owner, I would consider other players here but ultimately with Lawrence gone, I would go with Harris. The reason I would take Harris here is his cheap salary and the fact you will be able to snag quite a few draft picks in return for trading him to a contender. If you decide not to trade him, you should have a workhorse RB for the foreseeable future.

3. Kyle Pitts (4 years, $8,227,623)- Tight end, Atlanta Falcons

I absolutely love the talent and landing spot of Kyle Pitts, and if I am being honest, I probably would have taken him with my next pick had he not gone here. The only downside I see with Pitts is the typical time it takes tight ends to develop and the salary he will be playing at. All of that said if he is who we think he is, Pitts will be a huge advantage most weeks on your roster for many years to come.

4. Ja’Marr Chase (4 years, $7,547,410)- Wide receiver, Cincinnati Bengals

The year off for Chase worries me a bit but the last time we saw him on a football field he was clearly the best wide receiver….That field also had Justin Jefferson on it. Chase has a pricey salary being drafted so early but he more than has the talent to make his contract a value. The thought of Chase reuniting with Joe Burrow is extremely intriguing and should pay dividends quickly for the rookie. While there is risk with all rookies, I see Chase as a solid long term player.

5. Justin Fields (4 years, $4,717,988)- Quarterback, Chicago Bears

I wanted Justin Fields at pick number 6 in the worst way but without trading in this mock draft I was stuck watching my guy get taken. In my opinion, Fields should be the best value in this entire class and has the athleticism to be a top 12 quarterback as a rookie. Fields fell much further than expected in the draft and it resulted in a massive value for Dynasty Owners who draft him. If he can beat out Dalton quickly, this may be the best pick in the draft.

6. Trey Lance (4 years, $8,526,319)- Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers

At this spot I was really torn between Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, and Trey Lance. If I were in win now mode, I would have definitely taken one of the backs available but as a rebuilding owner I took the most intriguing prospect in the draft, Trey Lance. I love the fact Lance landed with Kyle Shanahan in the Bay Area. Every time I think of this pairing, I look back to RGIII in Washington. The only negative on Lance is he may sit a year wasting a valuable season of his rookie deal.

7. Jaylen Waddle (4 years, $6,771,498)- Wide receiver, Miami Dolphins

To me the Dolphins selecting Waddle speaks volumes to what Tua Tagovailoa saw at Alabama. Tua played with both Waddle and DeVonta Smith in college and likely had quite a bit of input on which receiver to draft in Miami. If Tua and Waddle find their groove, Waddle should excel out of the gate. I have also noticed a lot of people comparing Waddle to Henry Ruggs (WR – LV) and I would advise those to look again, Waddle is great underneath. My main concern for Waddle is the development of Tua.

8. Javonte Williams (4 years, $2,216,438)- Running back, Denver Broncos

I think Javonte Williams is the perfect rebuilding running back at the 8 spot. Williams should get a decent role in Year 1 giving his body time to adjust some before receiving a massive load in 2022 and beyond. If this scenario plays out like most think it should by this time next year Williams will be an absolute steal with a very low salary. Watch out for a potential Melvin Gordon suspension in 2021 as well. I know a lot of people have Travis Etienne ahead of Williams, but I am a Williams truther with him getting one of Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) highest running back grades ever during the 2020 season, against the same competition Etienne faced in the ACC.

9. Zach Wilson (4 years, $8,787,670)- Quarterback, New York Jets

Zach Wilson is the player whose draft position will likely be vastly different in every league. I don’t think Wilson is a bad pick here at all as he will get every possible chance to succeed in the Big Apple on top of being a Day 1 starter. I think a lot of the bad on Wilson is tied to the organization that drafted him, but we must remember Adam Gase is no longer there. If Wilson is even a middle of the road quarterback this will be a great pick at the back end of the first round. The Jets invested heavily on the offensive side of the ball during this off-season, now we just have to wait and see if it pays off.

10. Travis Etienne (4 years, $3,224,526)- Running back, Jacksonville Jaguars

At the 10 spot I found myself in a difficult spot, especially as a rebuilding owner. I love DeVonta Smith, and I love drafting wide receivers when I am rebuilding but I felt the value of a potential RB1 was too much to pass up. I am worried about James Robinson in Jacksonville, but the amount of work Etienne will see as a receiver to start should offset that worry some. I think eventually talent will win out and it will be Etienne’s backfield to lose in Jacksonville. I also feel Etienne will net more in a potential trade over Smith in the near future.

11. DeVonta Smith (4 years, $5,035,347)- Wide receiver, Philadelphia Eagles

Attention rebuilding owners! If this happens do not trade this pick. Draft DeVonta Smith! At the 11 spot we have an absolute steal in DeVonta Smith. If I were a rebuilding owner picking at number 11 with Smith on the board, I don’t think I would be able to hit draft fast enough. In many other years, Smith would be a lock to go in the top 5-7 picks and here he sits at pick 11. The depth of talent in the 2021 class shows itself with this selection. The Slim Reaper may take a season or two to fully adjust to the NFL as a smaller receiver, but I fully expect him to be an absolute stud for years to come.

12. Rashod Bateman (4 years, $3,149,853)- Wide receiver, Baltimore Ravens

With the final pick of the first round, I took Rashod Bateman. Bateman was injury prone in college but has the talent to be a monster in the NFL as long as he can stay healthy. If Lamar Jackson takes a step forward passing, Bateman could be a huge beneficiary of that. If Bateman is healthy, there is a real chance he could be the top receiver for the Ravens out of the gate and that’s not something I’m ok passing on this late in the first. The question marks are there but Bateman has first round draft capital on a team that needs an alpha receiver.

Round 2

  1. Trey Sermon (4 years, $1,218,233)- Running back, San Francisco 49ers

Is there a player that has had a bigger rise this off-season than Trey Sermon? Sermon went from being a mid-third rounder in a lot of mocks and is now going late first-very early second round in almost all leagues. The Kyle Shanahan effect is real for running backs in the NFL. Sermon doesn’t have a whole lot of talent to beat out in front of him, especially after 2021. The fact that the 49ers traded a lot of picks away for Trey Lance only to trade more away to get Sermon later in the draft says a ton about how they view Sermon. I have zero issue with this pick as I tend to be a believer in players Kyle Shanahan sees as a fit for his system.

2. Michael Carter (4 years, $1,071,842)- Running back, New York Jets

I honestly do not care for this pick, and I happen to be the one that made it. If I could go back and redo this pick, I probably would switch to Mac Jones, or Elijah Moore (though I got him at the 2.04) over a running back. The reason I took Carter here is because he has a chance to take control of the Jets backfield right away. I like Carter as a long term NFL type player, but I do not think he is built to handle a full workload. As a contender, I don’t have an issue with Carter here but as a rebuilding owner I would go in a different direction.

3. Mac Jones (4 years, $3,896,588)- Quarterback, New England Patriots

To get a soon to be starting quarterback at just under $4 million here at the 2.03 is great value. Mac Jones is going to a great organization who will likely keep him out awhile, but that will also benefit him in the long run. The one thing I love about Jones to New England is how accurate he is and how much their system wants to rely on accurate throws and making the right play, two things Jones excels at. If Cam Newton doesn’t return to normal form quickly, we will see a change in New England sooner rather than later with all the money they spent this off season. Outside of San Francisco, Jones couldn’t have landed in a better situation.

4. Elijah Moore (4 years, $2,235,107)- Wide receiver, New York Jets

Elijah Moore was one of my favorite receivers in this class in terms of pure talent. I was not thrilled with the fact he went to New York who already have Denzel Mims, Corey Davis, Keelan Cole, and Jamison Crowder on the roster, leaving little room for Moore. If things play out well Moore could be the number 2 or 3 guy in 2022 with Cole and Crowder on expiring deals. A lot of Moore’s success will likely be tied to rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. Let’s hope Moore’s talent wins out here.

5. Rondale Moore (4 years, $1,731,060)- Wide receiver, Arizona Cardinals

A lot of what I said about the Moore above can be said about Rondale Moore as well. Rondale Moore was drafted to the Arizona Cardinals who have Nuke Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, two pass catching running backs, and potentially Larry Fitzgerald on the roster for 2021. Moore has a much more realistic shot at quality playing time in 2022 when Green and Fitz will likely be gone. Moore is a talented kid who will get his shot eventually.

6. Kadarius Toney (4 years, $3,429,877)- Wide receiver, New York Giants

While I am not a huge fan of Kadarius Toney as a player, at the 2.06 I just couldn’t pass on someone with first round draft capital. Opportunities like this or a potential Mac Jones fall are why rebuilding owners should make cap flexibility a priority. Toney is a risk at nearly $3.5 million in salary, but he also has a chance to pay off big. As a rebuilding owner, that’s something you should be targeting at this point in the draft. I remember saying to Tom this is when things get interesting in the draft and his response was “you mean gross” and he couldn’t have said it better!

7. Terrace Marshall (4 years, $1,432,372)- Wide receiver, Carolina Panthers

Marshall is one of the more interesting players in this rookie class and I have heard many different opinions about him. I love Marshall at this spot because he is similar to Kadarius Toney in the fact he has very high upside with a low floor. If Marshall can find a role as the third option in Carolina it could spell big things for his future. I also love the fact that Marshall is reuniting with Joe Brady who he played for at LSU.

8. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4 years, $1,066,313)- Wide receiver, Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown can be put into the same class as Trey Sermon as one of the biggest risers after the NFL draft. The Lions took St. Brown in the fourth round and while typically that wouldn’t be something to write home about the Lions have no one ahead of him on the depth chart. There is a real chance St. Brown is the most talented receiver on the Lions roster already.

9. Amari Rodgers (4 years, $1,224,974)- Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers

I was very high on Amari Rodgers because of the mix of talent and landing spot. The fact that the other A. Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers) is threatening to never play for the Packers again really worries me, because I feel Aaron Rodgers will hold a grudge and follow through on his word. All that said, I feel Amari Rodgers is talented but will need Jordan Love to develop quickly should their starting quarterback leave town.

10. Chuba Hubbard (4 years, $1,048,294)- Running back, Carolina Panthers

There is only one reason owners are drafting Hubbard and that is to handcuff CMC. Hubbard showed flashes of greatness in college and would have been a much higher draft pick had he declared for the draft early. The decision to come back to school cost Hubbard money and saved Dynasty Owners’ cap space.

11. Nico Collins (4 years, $1,217,879)- Wide receiver, Houston Texans

Nico Collins was drafted to a messy, but great situation. I say messy because of the Deshaun Watson issues, and I say good because there is no one in front of him on the depth chart aside from Brandin Cooks. If Collins has a solid training camp and preseason, you could find yourself with a starter in the back end of the second round.

12. Pat Freiermuth (4 years, $1,507,045)- Tight end, Pittsburgh Steelers

The best pick in the entire second round is the Steeler, Pat Freiermuth! I’m kidding of course. In many past seasons a tight end with the talent of Freiermuth would go much earlier than late second but the presence of Kyle Pitts has pushed back some of the love Freiermuth would typically get. Freiermuth will take a bit to develop but could turn into a Heath Miller type when all is said and done.

Round 3

  1. D’Wayne Eskridge (4 years, $1,488,376)- Wide receiver, Seattle Seahawks

D’Wayne Eskridge should be the third receiver from Day one in Seattle.

2. Kenneth Gainwell (4 years, $953,882)- Running back, Philadelphia Eagles

Kenneth Gainwell is a great pass catching back who kept Antonio Gibson behind him at                           Memphis.

3. Dyami Brown (4 years, $1,236,000)- Wide receiver, Washington Football Team

The addition of Curtis Samuel hurts but Brown could benefit from an upgraded passing attack.

4. Kellen Mond (4 years, $1,305,854)- Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings

The perfect quarterback for a rebuilding roster. Kirk Cousins won’t be around forever.

5. Tutu Atwell (4 years, $1,477,175)- Wide receiver, Los Angeles Rams

Tutu Atwell has great draft capital after being taken in the second round of the NFL draft.

6. Josh Palmer (4 years, $1,258,365)- Wide receiver, Los Angeles Chargers

Josh Palmer starts his career with a young stud quarterback in Justin Herbert.

7. Anthony Schwartz (4 years, $1,215,755)- Wide receiver, Cleveland Browns

Anthony Schwartz is blazing fast and could be the Browns deep threat in Week 1.

8. Javian Hawkins (3 years, $810,000)- Running back, Atlanta Falcons

Javian Hawkins has a great chance to earn playing time in Atlanta.

9. Jarret Patterson (3 years, $808,333)- Running back, Washington Football Team

Jarret Patterson had 409 yards and 8 touchdowns in one game. Enough said!

10. Davis Mills (4 years, $1,304,382)- Quarterback, Houston Texans

With everything going on with Deshaun Watson, Davis Mills could start early on in his career.

11. Jermar Jefferson (4 years, $889,581)- Running back, Detroit Lions

Jermar Jefferson is playing in a wide-open offense, though he is behind the most talented player.

12. Tylan Wallace (4 years, $1,041,341)- Wide receiver, Baltimore Ravens

Tylan Wallace has a ton of talent but was slowed by injuries in college.

Conclusion

I am more excited than ever to be a part of Dynasty Owner. As you can see how owners value a player and his contract is everything in this format. Please feel free to let me know if you guys enjoyed this type of article and which picks you would have made differently as a rebuilding owner.

I want to remind everyone the rookie drafts will be starting on June 4th at 12pm for all returning Dynasty Owner leagues. Be ready to wheel and deal and improve your rosters. Another huge shoutout to Tom Ayling for helping me with this mock draft and adding a little less bias to it. Good luck in your rookie drafts and as always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Blind Comparisons: New England Patriots

Welcome Dynasty Owners to another Wednesday article. The New England Patriots will be the focus today. It would be an understatement to say the Pats had a bad 2020 season. And it’s not even that it was that terrible of a season. It’s more that NFL fans are so used to seeing New England succeed that their failures get overblown. At any rate, a 7-9 record is not what we are used to seeing out of a Belichick run team. Here are some stats about how rare it is to see this type of season.

The Patriots had won the AFC East for 11 consecutive seasons dating back to 2008
The Patriots had not lost more than six games since 2002.
The Patriots had not finished below .500 in the regular season since 2000.
The Patriots had not finished lower than second in the AFC East since 2000.

All of these stats are true, and all of these streaks were snapped this past season. Would I be disappointed if I were a Pats fan? Sure, I wouldn’t be happy with the season’s result, but I also wouldn’t trade anything that my team had accomplished in the past for an average year. Dynasties aren’t put together in a season, and eventually a two decade long “win now” mentality will catch up with a franchise. There is nothing wrong with that. It happens to every team.

I’m a Cardinals and Blues fan (as most of you know I live in St. Louis). I’ve always said that I would sacrifice an entire decade of success for one dominant, championship winning season. Many cities go multiple decades without a championship in any of the major four sports. If I can get one a decade, then I’m happy. This is probably a radical opinion, but I feel it’s also realistic. I’m not going to recap everything that the Patriots have accomplished over the past 21 years because I think everyone reading this is well aware, but it is worth stating that a rebuild was inevitable. Obviously, Tom Brady’s departure and subsequent title with the Bucs doesn’t sit well with most New England fans, but that’s a discussion for a different article. Today, let’s talk about some comparisons.

Comparison 1

Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner?

Player A (Alpha):
Damien Harris 2020 stats
8.9 fantasy points/game (142.5 for 16 game season)
156 rush / 38 rec / 955 total yards / 2 TDs
He missed no games in 2020

Player B (Bravo):
23 years old
2021 projected stats
9.1 fantasy points/game (154.7 total)
154 rush / 36 rec / 957 total yards / 2 TDs

So, what are your initial thoughts? My thoughts are that Harris did not have as good a season as Bravo, and that is true. That statement is also a little misleading. Bravo played all 16 games in 2020, but Harris played only 10. Here’s how their 16 game average season would have looked had they both played all 16 games and kept the same production…

Player

D. Harris

Player Bravo

Age

24

23

Points/Game

9.6

8.9

Rushes & Yards

219/1,188

156/955

TDs

3

2

Salary

$907,784

$974,500

When you look at each player’s average fantasy production per game, Harris outperformed Bravo. It’s also worth noting that Harris’s salary is slightly less than Bravo’s. In my opinion, Harris actually had a very productive 2020 season. Keep in mind, in 2020 he ranked third among all NE running backs in terms of total fantasy points. (He was third behind James White and Rex Burkhead.)

In the end, Bravo is Devin Singletary. Singletary was regularly drafted in the second or third round of 2020 startup drafts. His stock has fallen over the past year, and I’ll be surprised if he goes before the fourth round in most 2021 drafts. I would draft Harris over Devin this year. The slightly lower value of his rookie contract helps as well as the idea that Harris will command more of a lead-back role now that he is expected to come into the new season 100 percent healthy.

Comparison 2

Player C (Charlie):
26 years old
2020 stats
8.7 fantasy points/game (139.7 for 16 game season)
57 rec / 535 total yards / 5 TDs
He missed three games in 2020
2021 projected stats
9.8 fantasy points/game (166.1 total)
65 rec / 661 total yards / 5 TDs

Player D (Delta):
Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith had a better season than Charlie. This is almost entirely due to the fact that Jonnu put up eight receiving touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. I’m not trying to take those away. He earned them, but we all know how fluky red zone targets and touchdowns can be. Regardless, Smith scored more points in the 2020 season when compared to Charlie. Jonnu Smith finished as TE 15 on the season while Charlie finished as TE 21. This isn’t a great outcome for either player especially when you take into account their salaries. Here is the full breakdown…

Player

Player Charlie

Jonnu Smith

Age

26

25

Points/Game

8.7

9.3

Rec & Yards

56/535

44/478

TDs

5

10

Salary

$10,500,000

$12,500,000

You may be saying, “wow, these are some high prices to pay for average tight ends.” You are absolutely correct. You are paying a premium price for middle-tier tight end production. Not great value at all. Charlie is Austin Hooper. Hooper missed three games last year, but even in the games he played, he was unable to be a startable fantasy asset in about half of those. He had 6.3 points or less in six games last year. So, the question stands. Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner? I hate to say it, but I’d rather have Hooper, and it comes down to two major factors.

The first is the elephant in the room. Jonnu is now playing for the Patriots who also signed Hunter Henry. What do you suppose is the most optimistic split between these two above-average tight ends? I would say that the best-case scenario is a 75/25 split in favor of either player. If this splits in Jonnu’s favor, then he will be a startable Dynasty Owner tight end. This, however, is a big “if.” I see their tight end committee working more like a 50/50 split. If that is the case, I see no reason how Smith can be confidently taken over Hooper. I realize that neither of these tight ends will see the field as much as Waller, Kittle, or Kelce and that’s exactly why they are low-value players.

The second factor is simply the fact that Jonnu costs 2 million dollars per year more than Hooper. While this may not seem like a lot, it is when we’re talking about similar type production over the next couple of years. I take Hooper in this comparison, but truth be told I hope I can draft a better option than either of these as my TE1.

As always, thank you for reading. Check out my video that pairs with this article. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Salary Cap Room for 2021 Rookie Drafts

By Steven Van Tassell

Rookie drafts are new and coming to Dynasty Owner soon! June 4th at Noon is the starting date for all rookie drafts for existing Dynasty Owner leagues. If you’re in a league that played in 2020, whether you played last year or bought the team from another Dynasty Owner or the Orphan store, your rookie draft is coming up and it’s time to start getting prepared. Besides researching rookie prospects, reading all of the articles from our Dynasty Owner writers about rookies and how they performed in college and what teams drafted or signed them, Dynasty Owners also need to know rookie contracts.
Fortunately, all rookie salary information has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/) and loaded into Dynasty Owner already. Dynasty Owners don’t need to do anything other than search for rookies in the Free Agent Auction on the mobile app or do a rookie mock draft. When you go to the Mock Draft Lobby, be sure to select “Rookie Mock Draft” before joining a room.
The rookie mock drafts are great, but they aren’t yet allowing you to simulate a rookie draft with your current team. You can draft any rookie, regardless of salary and if he’ll fit under your team’s $127.75 million salary cap for 2021. As you’ve probably read plenty of times before, unlike a “regular” dynasty fantasy football league, Dynasty Owners need to account for salaries. Trevor Lawrence isn’t the automatic first rookie draft pick because the Dynasty Owner with the first pick needs to have enough salary cap room to fit him on their roster.
One great question that came up in 2020 and should be in the back of all Dynasty Owners’ minds now is – “How much salary cap room do I need to have for my rookie draft?” The short answer is: “It depends”. That answer isn’t very helpful so it’s time to dive into rookie salaries and give a (somewhat) better answer to that question for all of our Dynasty Owners.
All salary information listed are based on the salaries available on Dynasty Owner as of May 21st.

Rookie Salaries Are Set in Stone
That’s right. For some of you who haven’t paid attention to salaries much before playing Dynasty Owner, there’s any wiggle room for what the players taken in the NFL draft will get paid from their first contract. That wasn’t always the case. The NFL rookie salary system in effect now that provides set value 4-year contracts for drafted players with a fifth year option for first round draft picks was implemented in the 2011 NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. Undrafted rookie free agent contracts are 3-year contracts.
The rookie salary scale was created to limit rookie salaries which had reached its high point in 2010 when the St. Louis Rams (remember back when the Rams used to be in St. Louis) drafted Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford with the first pick and gave him a six-year, $78 million contract with $50 million guaranteed. Bradford’s average salary of a little over $13 million made him the 12th highest paid player in the NFL (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2011/average/) before he had even played a snap in the league.
Flash forward to 2021 and players, GMs, the media, Dynasty Owners and everyone else knows the contract value for each draft position even before the players are drafted. Those are the dollar figures on the contracts being signed since the draft ended and the salaries that are loaded into the Dynasty Owner platform.

Minimum Amounts
The true minimum amount is $0. It’s possible for a Dynasty Owner to have no rookie draft picks and not need to have set aside any salary cap room for their rookie draft. All teams start with three rookie draft picks every year and some teams earn a bonus fourth pick at the end of the first round (pick 1.13) for winning the Loser’s Bracket tournament from the previous season. Some teams will trade away draft picks and end up with only one or two, while others will stockpile them and have a lot more (16 rookie picks is the highest that I can remember hearing, but can’t recall what team has that many).
For Dynasty Owners with a team that has only one draft pick, they will need a minimum of $808,333 to draft one of the many undrafted rookie free agents who have signed with NFL teams. If you want someone who was at least drafted by a NFL team, you’ll need a minimum of $889,317 to take Dax Milne (WR – WAS) who was the second to last player drafted in the seventh round. If you want a first round NFL draft pick, then the amount is $3.15 million to acquire the services of Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) who was chosen with the 27th pick.
If you’ve looked at the rookie mock drafts in Dynasty Owner, you might be saying to yourself “Hey Steve! There’s a couple of guys listed with salaries of less than $808,333. What gives?” That is correct, there are six rookies who had their college eligibility run out in 2019, didn’t get signed by a NFL team in 2020, but then worked out and signed a contract before the NFL draft in late April. Taylor Russolino (K – Free Agent) is also listed at a salary of $695,000 and his situation is even more unique (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Russolino).
The player with the lowest salary ($583,333 for three years) of this group is Micah Simon (WR – CAR). For more information about Simon and his signing, check out this article (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/report-micah-simon-signs-with-carolina-panthers-after-showing-at-byu-s-pro-day/ar-BB1f7YsQ). So, yes it is true that you could have only $583,333 in salary cap room and draft Micah Simon with your only rookie draft pick. However, if that’s all the salary cap room you have, then you’re probably better off trading the pick and getting something more for it.
Disregarding these exceptions, it appears that Dynasty Owners with all three of their draft picks will need at least $2.425 million in salary cap room in order to draft three minimum salary undrafted rookie free agents. If the Dynasty Owner team won the 1.13 bonus pick, then they will need $3,233,332. If you have more than four draft picks and want to spend the minimum then do the math ($808,333 * # of picks = minimum salary $). This is regardless of what rounds or picks your Dynasty Owner team has since draft position doesn’t matter.

Maximum Amount
There is apparently one Dynasty Owner out there sitting on 16 draft picks in their 2021 rookie draft. Do they even have enough salary cap room to fit that many rookies on their roster? The answer is Yes!
In fact, they have plenty of space to fit 16 draft picks and 9-14 holdover players from their 2020 team. If this team were to draft the top 16 salaried players in the rookie player pool, it would cost them a total of $82.115 million, meaning that they’d have $45.635 million left for the rest of their roster. For that rookie haul, they’d get every first round NFL draft position player pick and the top three position players drafted in the second round. That would work out to 5 QBs, 3 RBs, 7 WRs and 1 TE. So, the maximum any Dynasty Owner needs in salary cap room is $82.115 million. Unless someone has more than 16 draft picks.
Most Dynasty Owner teams aren’t going to have that many rookie draft picks, they are going to have three or four of them. In order to draft the top three picks in the NFL draft – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC), Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ) and Trey Lance (QB – SF), a Dynasty Owner would need a little over $26.5 million in salary cap room. If you had four picks due to winning the 1.13 pick or via trade, then your Dynasty Owner team would need $34.74 million to fit those three QBs plus Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL). If you only have one draft pick and are able to draft the number one overall NFL draft pick in Trevor Lawrence, you’ll need $9.2 million since Lawrence’s annual salary is $9,198,372. Here’s a handy chart for the maximum amount you need if you have up to five rookie draft picks.

No. of Picks

1

2

3

4

5

Maximum Salary Needed

$9.2 million

$17.986 million

$26.512 million

$34.74 million

$42.445 million

If you have more than five rookie draft picks and want to know the maximum that you can spend, you obviously are obsessed with rookies and probably have already done the calculations yourself.

Stuck in the Middle with You
Most Dynasty Owners don’t need as much as the $82.115 million maximum, but will need more than the absolute $0 minimum or even the $808,333 one undrafted rookie free agent minimum. As Stealers Wheel sang and the movie Reservoir Dogs made into an iconic scene, most of us are stuck in the middle.
For a typical Dynasty Owner with three or four rookie draft picks distributed throughout the three round rookie draft, it’s unlikely that they will be able to draft all three top QBs or even three first round NFL draft picks. It’s more likely that they will get three or four players from the 77 rookie position players taken in the NFL draft – from Trevor Lawrence to Dax Milne – and likely take players from different positions as well. For these Dynasty Owners, the range of salary cap that they will need to have on hand for the rookie draft is between $5.7 million and $26.4 million.
At the $5.7 million amount, a Dynasty Owner would get the cheapest of the five first round QBs drafted – Mac Jones (QB – NE) – as well as Dax Milne as a WR/TE and the lowest drafted RB in Jermar Jefferson (RB – DET). At the upper end, the Dynasty Owner would have four draft picks and get the most expensive QB (Trevor Lawrence), the most expensive RB in Najee Harris (RB – PIT) and the two top receivers drafted – Kyle Pitts and Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN).

Rookie Drafts by the Numbers

There’s a lot of rookie draft information to digest and enough numbers to make a Dynasty Owner’s head spin. This probably isn’t going to simplify matters, but here are some additional numbers:

  • There are a total of 161 rookies currently in the Dynasty Owner player pool
  • Out of those 161 rookies, 77 were drafted by a NFL team, 77 signed after the NFL draft as an undrafted rookie free agent and 7 are the exceptions who had their college eligibility run out in 2019 (or before) and didn’t play in the NFL in 2020
  • There will be a total of 37 rookies drafted out of a rookie player pool of 161 players (23%)
  • Lowest rookie salary – Micah Simon (WR – CAR) – $583,333 per year for 3 years
  • Highest rookie salary – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) – $9,198,372 per year for 4 years
  • Most common drafted rookie salary – $902,677 for four years for the four players taken with sixth round compensatory picks – Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI), Sam Ehlinger (QB – IND), Seth Williams (WR – DEN) and Dazz Newsome (WR – CHI)
  • Most common undrafted rookie free agent salary – $808,333 for 3 years for 53 players
  • Highest undrafted rookie free agent salary – $823,333 for 3 years for Deon Jackson (RB – IND)

Conclusions
The short answer “It depends” is actually the correct answer here. Everything depends on your current roster and the number of draft picks your Dynasty Owner team has available. As we’ve seen, a Dynasty Owner with at least one draft pick could need as little as $808,333 to select an undrafted rookie free agent with their one pick or as much as $82.115 million if you’re the Dynasty Owner with 16 draft picks and want all of the highest paid rookies out there.
For most Dynasty Owners with a “normal” number of draft picks, it appears that the range of salary cap room that you should be targeting is between $5.7 million and $26.4 million. You can go lower than that if you don’t want, or can’t draft, any of the top five QBs taken and don’t have to go that high if you don’t have four draft picks and need all of the most expensive rookies at each position.
We’ll keep going on the rookie draft theme for the next two weeks as there’s plenty more to look at to get Dynasty Owners ready for their rookie draft. We can look at rookie ADP from both rookie mock drafts and actual Dynasty Owner start-up drafts, as well as see how much good “rookie” drafts from 2019 and 2020 would have cost their Dynasty Owners. Those two topics should give Dynasty Owners a better sense of what to expect in their rookie drafts.
Regardless of your league, Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you win your league and a new publication schedule for the weekly articles and videos that will provide the information you need. A few new videos to accompany the weekly articles have been posted and more are coming every week from now on. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern). My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released on Saturdays throughout the off-season. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Nate Christian (@NateNFL) will talk about rookies on Tuesdays. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Wednesdays. Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will get his insights on Fridays.
Please read all of their articles and follow the four of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful as you prepare for the first-ever Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

The Top 15 Players Rebuilding Owners Should Target After Rookie Drafts (Part 2)

By Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

It is startup season here at Dynasty Owner! Over the course of the rest of the off-season we will have drafts going as often as they fill! If you are an owner who is really enjoying Dynasty Owner and feel others will too, please feel free to invite them over to check out the platform. If you really love Dynasty Owner, you will be the annoying person in all your league chats telling everyone to come check out this awesome platform that makes you feel like a real NFL GM. Of course, I am kidding about the annoying your other league mates’ part… or am I? I am also looking for a potential league or two to join if anyone is interested in the challenge…. Or free money however you want to look at it! I know Dynasty Owner can be confusing at first but if you are having trouble explaining to your friends just how immersive Dynasty Owner really is then please feel free to send them to @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter and we will gladly help them from there.

Today we will be continuing from last week’s article talking about some of the deepest of sleepers you can pick up after your rookie drafts, which start on June 4th. Last week, I talked about some of the more notable players I felt were going to be drafted in the backend of the 3rd round or just after and today we will switch gears towards the players I do not expect to hear called at all during Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. The players I am going to talk about today all have an extremely clear path to playing time with one injury, or flat-out earning time on the field in training camp, or the preseason. I have found in my 10 plus years of dynasty fantasy football that owners who are patient and make calculated moves tend to find much more value on the backend of their roster, whether it be from identifying late round guys, or in free agency. I know you always hear me say things like finds the talent late and hold onto it until they develop, but there is also nothing wrong with drafting or picking someone up and then cutting them a few months later. Sometimes taking a guy whose outcome is going to be predictable regardless of if the player fails or succeeds is a good thing to do. An example of would-be Sage Surratt, (who was mentioned in last week’s article), if Surrat does not start to generate buzz this off-season with as weak as Detroit’s receiving room is you can drop him because this is his big shot. Obviously, Surratt not showing out during the first two months of his career does not mean he’ll never make it, it just means he will likely never be all that fantasy relevant. I love drafting guys like this simply because when they hit, it’s awesome, but if they do not beat out the minimal talent in front of them you can drop them and pick up another player who could offer more value to your roster. Are guys like this likely to hit often? Absolutely not, but regardless of if they do, or do not, roster spots still need to be filled. I also want to give a shout out to the guys behind the Dynasty Owner Twitter account for turning me on to one of the players you will see listed below who I had not looked into much until that point.

These players will be in no particular ranking with the main factors again being draft capital, path to getting on the field, and their college production.

And Then There Were Seven

  1. Jamie Newman (3 years, $808,333) – Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles

I picked Newman first because he is a good example of a player that you will know quickly if he is a longer-term hold or someone you can let go based on his training camp and preseason. Jamie Newman Is an interesting prospect, who I feel would have been drafted with a solid season at Georgia in 2020. Newman ended up sitting out the 2020 season for the Bulldogs due to COVID-19 concerns after transferring from Wake Forest. I have Newman on this list because I feel if he ends up looking decent in his first training camp, he could push ahead of Super Bowl winning QB Joe Flacco on the depth chart for the Eagles as Flacco has struggled for quite a few years now. The main thing that I see with this situation is that the Eagles will need to change their entire offense with Flacco under center because of his lack of mobility compared to Jalen Hurts. It is not a hidden secret that teams tend to lean towards backups with a similar skill set to their starter. When I watched some of the Newman tape I could find, he did remind me of Jalen Hurts a bit with a hair less athleticism. If you are drafting Newman in hopes he will be posting baller fantasy numbers for your team you may need to look elsewhere, but I do see Newman as a potential backup option for Hurts over the next season or two. The quarterback position is probably the hardest spot to succeed at after going undrafted with only a few notable undrafted guys in the league right now in Case Keenum, Nick Mullins, and Brian Hoyer. One of the things I really like about Newman is the fact that Jalen Hurts is not exactly proven and with a very impatient fan base in Philly we could see a change sooner rather than later if Hurts were to come out of the gate and struggle.

  • Chris Evans (4 years, $913,222) – Running back, Cincinnati Bengals

Chris Evans is one of the more interesting late round rookies of the 2021 off-season, and a player I will have more than a few shares of on my own teams. Evans was highly sought after coming out of high school in Indianapolis ranking as a top 15 back in the country. Evans looked like he was going to live up to the hype during his first collegiate season finishing with 88 carries for 614 yards and 4 touchdowns, which averages out to a whopping 7.0 yards per carry. Evans was looking to build off a solid freshman year and disappointed heavily in 2017 with 135 carries for 685 yards and 6 scores and falling off further in his junior season. Evans followed a disappointing 2018 season up by getting suspended from the team for academic reasons, only to bounce back in 2020 and get drafted by the Bengals in the 6th round. Over the past what seems like 80 seasons, we have seen the Bengals give Giovani Bernard a significant amount of work each season and the fact that Bernard is no longer with the team opens a massive role for someone to step into. Evans will have Samaje Perine, and Trayveon Williams in front of him on the depth chart giving him a realistic shot at being the number 2 back for Week 1. I have not seen Evans drafted inside of the first three rounds in any rookie draft I have done this off-season and feel he could be a steal for a player you can acquire for next to nothing.

  • Javon McKinley (3 years, $813,333) – Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions

By no means am I saying this kid is the next Marvin Jones, but he reminds me a lot of him. McKinley is a big strong kid who can win in deep ball situations but needs to work on his route running. Javon McKinley played his college ball at Notre Dame and finished with a strong senior season with 42 catches (tied for team high) and 717 yards, which led the Fighting Irish. While McKinley has zero draft capital or anything tying him to an NFL roster, he does have a great landing spot and will get plenty of opportunity to succeed. McKinley showed that he is also able to deal with some adversity and bounce back after he was arrested for punching two campus police officers and underage drinking. While I am not sure if his incident a couple of years ago is why he went undrafted, but I do know that it takes commitment and character to bounce back after humiliating yourself in a situation like that. McKinley’s greatest strength is his ability to stretch the field and is how I expect him to potentially carve out an early role in his NFL career. McKinley can be held in the same regard as previously mentioned Sage Surratt where you will know early on if he is someone you want to hold or let go based on if he’s able to find the field in the least talented receiver room in the NFL.

  • Caleb Huntley (3 years, $808,333) – Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

If you have not been able to tell yet my main factor in choosing these late round guys is based on the chance, they might see the field in the near future. As I did with Sage Surratt and Javon McKinley, I will also do with Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley by doubling down on two players for the same team at the same position. When teams are signing multiple quality guys like this to the same position it tells me they are looking to fill a big need, and in Atlanta that need is someone to play a secondary role to Mike Davis. Caleb Huntley is a massive running back coming in at 5’10” tall and weighing in at 229 pounds. In Huntley’s college career for Ball State, he was used strangely after exploding during his freshman year and playing more of a reserve role the following season. In Huntley’s junior season, he played well enough to earn co-offensive player of the year for Ball State finishing with 248 carries for 1275 yards and 12 touchdowns. In 2020, things went strange again, and Huntley started in just 3 games after missing 3 games to injury and the final 2 because he chose to opt out and prepare for the NFL draft. The Atlanta backfield is wide open behind Mike Davis, and Huntley will likely come at a slightly cheaper price than Hawkins and may very well be the better talent. If I had to compare Huntley to someone it would be Jerome “The Bus” Bettis.

  • Dazz Newsome (4 years, $902,677) – Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears

I hope this is not my Ohio State love showing through, but I finally feel comfortable with Chicago as a destination for fantasy receivers now that they have Justin Fields. As we all know Chicago has not had a top tier quarterback in a very long time, in fact I would be willing to bet around half of us have never seen top tier Bears QB in our lifetime. That could all be coming to an end rather quickly. Dazz Newsome, I feel is an excellent fit in Chicago especially if reports about them trading Anthony Miller come to fruition. Newsome is going to end up as a slot receiver in the NFL but will need to become more consistent catching the ball if he wants to have any type of longevity in his career. I have also seen that he should have a clear path to become the Bears new return specialist which is always a positive for the deeper players on your roster. I love targeting young players who have a prominent special teams’ role because it makes it much easier for them to make their team’s roster and to see the field. Newsome was drafted in the 6th round after finishing a 4-year career at North Carolina, a team who has put out quite a bit of pro talent in recent years. Newsome had his best college season in 2019 finishing with 72 catches, 1,018 yards, and 10 touchdowns. If anything, Newsome is well worth a pickup because he will be on the field come Week 1 on special teams and will have numerous chances to impress the organization because of that.

  • Tommy Tremble (4 years, $1,231,608) – Tight End, Carolina Panthers

Ahh another year another Sam Darnold tight end prospect being fed to people. Tommy Tremble was selected by the Panthers in the 3rd round after they had just signed Dan Arnold this off-season giving him pretty significant draft capital. In Carolina, Tremble only has two talented guys to beat out in the previously mentioned Dan Arnold, and Ian Thomas. Thomas is an extremely athletic tight end who just seems he will always be a “what could have been type player” and I do not expect Arnold to get in the way much after the 2021 season, 2022 at the latest. Tremble is a massive man at 6’3” tall and weighing in at 241 pounds. He has the body and strength to hold up for years to come. In college at Notre Dame Tremble was an absolute mauler when it comes to blocking with plenty of videos of him putting guys on their backside to be found. He seems to absolutely love doing the dirty work on the field which is something I value in tight end prospects. Tremble is a very gifted athlete at his size and should be able to develop into a solid NFL tight end if he can improve his pass catching skills. At Notre Dame, Tremble did not get a whole lot of opportunity because he was playing behind Cole Kmet and a kid who has been called a super freshman by many in Michael Mayer, which limited his upside as a playmaker. Tremble is exactly the type of overlooked player rebuilding owners should be targeting.

  • Kylen Granson (4 years, $1,046,592) – Tight End, Indianapolis Colts

I want to welcome everyone to the player I had heard hardly anything about until just a few days ago on Dynasty Owner’s Twitter account, Kyle Granson. Granson was selected in the 4th round by the Colts who have little on their roster in terms of future tight ends. Granson played his college ball at Rice, transferring to SMU after his initial coach at Rice was fired. In Granson’s first season with SMU he lit up opposing defenses for 43 catches, 721 yards, and 9 touchdowns for a rate of 16.8 yards per catch at the tight end position. Granson is not the typical tight end I tend to look for as he seems to be a weak blocker, but he lands in a favorable spot with a coaching staff who knows how to utilize their players’ strengths. The Colts also happened to trade for veteran Carson Wentz this off-season, and it’s widely noted that Wentz loves throwing to his tight ends. After the upcoming 2021 season the Colts have only Jack Doyle and Noah Togiai signed to its roster outside of Granson, so the opportunity will be there for him soon. I added Granson to this list mainly because I wanted to show everyone that its ok to admit you are low on a player and change up your rankings because of it, just as @dynasty_owner said in their Tweet. The one thing I need to work on with tight ends is writing them off when I see they are not the best of blockers. The NFL is constantly changing, and we should be too.

Conclusion

Over the next few months, there will be plenty more of these types of players to snatch up, just be sure to have your ear to the ground. The NFL off-season as a Dynasty Owner is going to be about staying ahead of the game in terms of checking in on training camp news. The news you hear over the next few months you will want to take with a grain of salt but also realize some of it is going to be particularly important. If you look back to last off-season at the James Robinson, Leonard Fournette situation you will find that owners who were following training camp news closely had the jump on owners who were not, and that diligence won plenty of people a championship. I hope you guys enjoyed this segment and if you have any prospects, I did not mention that you have hope for, feel free to let me know on Twitter and I will gladly take a deeper dive. As always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

15 Players Rebuilding Owners Should Target After Rookie Drafts (PART 1)

By Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl)

With Dynasty Owner rookie drafts two weeks away its time to start thinking about the players that will go in the third round, or potentially undrafted. I like to call these players lottery tickets or hidden gems. As rebuilding owners, you should try and load up on as many of these players as possible because you shouldn’t be holding onto veterans whose ceiling is severely limited. The lottery tickets you want to target are young players who have possible paths to playing time which almost always tend to be rookies on bad teams. If you look at the Detroit Lions roster for example, you will see the wide receiver depth chart is absolutely wide open, which is something you want to attack after the draft, or in the third, if necessary.
Every year in the NFL we see several players appear out of nowhere and it is hugely beneficial for rebuilding owners to roster those players before the breakout happens. If you go back and look at players that have appeared seemingly out of nowhere you will see that it is typically for a short stretch. When your lottery tickets hit, I highly suggest trading them because of the fact that they do tend to die out rather quickly, and one of the keys to rebuilding is getting the most out of your trades, not the least. I wanted to do this article so that as the rookie drafts approach everyone can be as prepared as possible, especially when it comes to the players most aren’t talking about. Rookie drafts are the easiest way to rebuild a team but can also be one of the most challenging. Rookie picks can be hit or miss from the 1.01 all the way down to the players that go undrafted. A few great examples of this would be in 2020, we had Clyde Edwards-Helaire going as the first rookie drafted (there were no rookie-only Dynasty Owner drafts in 2020), while James Robinson was going undrafted. In 2018, we also saw people in dynasty leagues drafting players like Royce Freeman or Derrius Guice early in the first round of rookie drafts over George Kittle, and D.J. Chark in the third.
What I am trying to insinuate here is that rookies are near crapshoots but can pay huge dividends here on Dynasty Owner. If you sit back and really look at it, you could build an absolute powerhouse by nailing which rookies to draft because of the value their contracts bring. In 2020 if you drafted the correct players, you could have had Justin Jefferson at a salary of $3,280,701 (3 years) scoring 273 points, or you could have had a whopping 15 extra points and DeAndre Hopkins at a salary of $16,200,000 in 2020, but now $27,250,000 (2 years). In Dynasty Owner differences like that can mean the difference between having another two or three elite players on your roster. Having Jefferson over Hopkins would have saved you $12,919,299, or Alvin Kamara ($964,443), Calvin Ridley ($2,725,178), Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287), CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), and still some space left over for free agency. Even with Kamara’s contract going up to $15,000,000 this year, you could still fit all of those players in for Hopkins’ new contract. As you can see when rebuilding in this format it is extremely beneficial to have ample cap space and players with valuable contracts can be key to that.
Over the next 2 weeks I am going to talk about 15 players (8 this week, 7 next week) I feel will go undrafted in the upcoming rookie drafts. I will touch on things like college performance, draft capital, and their path to opportunity. In the coming weeks some of these players are likely to rise or fall and I will touch on this again after the draft. These players will be in no specific order, and I also suggest doing your own research on these guys as well. If you happen to be torn on some of these players, my best advice would be to take who you think could see the field the fastest for their respective teams.

Davis Mills (4 years / $1,304,382) – Quarterback, Houston Texans
Going into the 2018 season in college football Davis Mills was one of the highest regarded prospects coming out of high school. Unfortunately for Mills, this was not a catalyst for a ton of playing time before being drafted to the NFL as he made just 11 career college starts. In those 11 starts, Mills threw the ball 438 times with 287 of them being completed, adding 18 touchdowns to 8 interceptions as well. Everything I have seen in my research of Mills is that he should have went back to school and he will need time to learn. Judging by his college production, I would have to agree. Mills is the typical old school pocket passer and has excellent arm strength to chuck the ball around the yard, but the lack of experience is a big concern. The path to playing time for Mills does seem to have some potential with Deshaun Watson still in a legal battle, making Tyrod Taylor the only player Mills may have to beat out for a starting job. He also has solid draft capital after being taken with the Texans first pick in the draft. If you’re able to get someone like Mills and he ends up starting you could probably net a first round pick for him from a contending team.

Jermar Jefferson (4 years / $889,581) – Running back, Detroit Lions
Jermar Jefferson was a very solid back for the Oregon State Beavers in college, especially during his freshman season where he had 239 carries for 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns. In Jefferson’s career he totaled 514 carries for 2,923 yards and 27 touchdowns, with a shortened 2020 season. Jefferson is a big, hard to bring down old school back who has zero issues getting tough yards. The biggest concern for Jefferson heading into the NFL is the fact he does not offer much in terms of high end speed, or pass catching, though sometimes he seems to play faster than his times show. In Detroit, Jefferson has a decent shot at seeing the field with the Lions deciding not to bring back Adrian Peterson or Kerryon Johnson. The Lions did sign Jamaal Williams and still have D’Andre Swift on the roster, but I feel Jefferson can step into the Peterson role from last season with Detroit always seeming to take a running back by committee approach. Another negative for Jefferson is the lack of draft capital after going in the seventh round of the NFL draft.

Josh Palmer (4 years / $1,258,365) – Wide receiver, Los Angeles Chargers
Josh Palmer had one of my favorite landing spot/draft capital combos of the draft. The fact not many are talking about the kid, and he went in the third round of the NFL draft, while being tied to Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future is mind blowing. Palmer did not produce major numbers at Tennessee but has the size and profile to become what the Chargers had hoped Mike Williams would be. The biggest concern with Palmer is his college production, though he never exactly had a decent quarterback. Palmer only had 99 catches for 1,514 yards in 4 years at Tennessee which is worrisome. He will be given every chance to succeed in the NFL and has a decent path to playing time with only Mike Williams in his way. If Palmer happens to build a rapport early on with Herbert, he could be one of the bigger steals in rookie drafts. At worst, Palmer will be a hold until the Chargers finally move on from Williams.

Dez Fitzpatrick (4 years / $1,069,951) – Wide receiver, Tennessee Titans
Dez Fitzpatrick probably has the clearest path to playing time on this list in Tennessee. The Titans recently let Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis walk in free agency, which leaves only A.J. Brown as a proven pass catcher. Fitzpatrick was taken in the 4th round of the draft giving him decent draft capital on a team that is wide open at his position. Fitzpatrick is a big-bodied receiver and is good when it comes to contested catches. In his career at Louisville, Fitzpatrick had 154 catches for 2,589 yards at a whopping 16.8 yards per catch and added 21 touchdowns to boot. It will take him awhile to adjust fully to the NFL, but I think he will be able to get on the field early as a deep ball threat while he develops into a more experienced player. My favorite aspect of Fitzpatrick is his landing spot and the fact he only has to beat out someone like Josh Reynolds to see playing time. I would be willing to bet by draft time you may need to move into the late third round of your rookie draft if you want to guarantee he’s on your roster.

Javion Hawkins (3 years / $810,000) – Running back, Atlanta Falcons
After going undrafted and having zero draft capital Javion Hawkins couldn’t have landed in a better spot. The Falcons have been looking for a running back since Devonta Freeman fell off and seemingly are still looking. In 2020, Atlanta had the likes of Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, and Brian Hill getting the majority of the touches, all of whom are no longer with the organization. The Falcons depth chart after Mike Davis is wide open, and Mike Davis has been nothing but a journeyman his entire career. In college at Louisville, Hawkins posted impressive numbers with 399 carries for 2,355 yards and 16 touchdowns. Hawkins showed the ability to hit a homerun whenever he touches the ball, but also goes down on first contact quite often. The one thing I do not like about Hawkins is the fact he is an undersized back who has showed very little in the pass catching game. Time will tell what Hawkins could be but for now he’s well worth a dart throw after rookie drafts. Hawkins is also another player I could see trending up into the third round of rookie drafts.

Elijah Mitchell (4 years / $915,892) – Running back, San Francisco 49ers
The opposite of Dez Fitzpatrick, Elijah Mitchell may have the toughest path to playing time on this list, but the fact he went to the 49ers means he has a chance. The 49ers took Mitchell in the sixth round of the NFL draft after drafting Trey Sermon a few rounds earlier. Over the years we have seen numerous backs succeed under Kyle Shanahan and there is no reason to think Mitchell can’t be the next one. Mitchell was highly productive in college finishing with 527 carries, 3,267 yards, and 41 touchdowns, while also performing well in the passing game. While Mitchell isn’t the most talented back in this class, he is one of the most well rounded. The biggest concern for Mitchell is the massive amount of work he saw in his college career. In 2020, we saw Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, Jamycal Hasty, and Jeff Wilson all have productive games for the 49ers, leaving the possibility of Mitchell seeing the field in 2021 a real possibility. Is there anything that would be more Kyle Shanahan than Mitchell ending up the better pro talent over Trey Sermon?

Sage Surratt (3 years / $808,333) – Wide receiver, Detroit Lions
If you can’t tell yet I love targeting late round, big-bodied receivers. Sage Surrat sits at 6 feet 2 inches tall and weighs in at 209 pounds. Surrat opted out in 2020 due to Covid-19 but had a great 2019 season finishing with 66 catches, 1,001 yards, and 11 touchdowns. The biggest knock on Surratt heading into his career is his lack of explosiveness and ability to create separation, but he can counter that with great hands and contested catch ability. I know earlier I said Fitzpatrick had the best landing spot on the list, but Surratt is equally up there in terms of landing spot. If Surratt can beat out guys like Quintez Cephus, or Breshad Perriman he could see the field as early as Week 1, which is exactly why I will be rostering Surratt everywhere I can. Though I do like Surratt, I do not recommend trading into the third round of rookie drafts to get him.

Kenny Yeboah (3 years / $815,000) – Tight end, New York Jets
Kenny Yeboah ended up going undrafted in the 2021 NFL draft, but still stands to have a decent shot at making it in the pros. My favorite part about Yeboah (aside from his last name) is the fact he doesn’t have much in front of him on the roster to beat out. The Jets do have Chris Herndon there, but he has zero ties to the new coaching staff and could easily be moved or replaced. Yeboah isn’t the prototypical tight end who will stay in and block often but more along the lines of Noah Fant where he depends more on speed and athleticism to make plays. Yeboah can be moved around the field to create mismatches and should excel when matched up against smaller or slower linebackers. Yeboah’s college career started out at Temple before transferring to Ole Miss, totaling 74 catches, 1,062 yards and 12 touchdowns between the two schools. We all know tight ends take a while to develop and players like Yeboah make for a great stash at the bottom of your roster.

Conclusion
If you are like me and love to have plenty of late round lottery tickets to choose from then be sure to tune in next week when I breakdown my final 7 lottery tickets of the 2021 rookie drafts.
I want to take a second and remind everyone that we will have plenty of new users joining Dynasty Owner over the next few months and to try to help them out as much as possible with things. Dynasty Owner is a ton of fun but can be difficult to navigate at first for new users. If you happen to be a new user and are reading this, feel free to contact anyone on the Dynasty Owner team on Twitter and we will all, be glad to help. Let me know on Twitter if I just ruined any of your sleeper picks with this article. Until the next time good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Blind Comparison: New York Jets

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Good afternoon Dynasty Owners and welcome to another Wednesday article.  This week marks the halfway point of my article series Contract Speculation and Breakdown.  We have gone through 16 NFL teams since the start of the year, and we will go through the remaining 16 prior to kickoff on Week 1.  As I’ve mentioned before, the speculation portion of my articles has dwindled.  This was expected since there is just not much to speculate about anymore.  Many of the free agents that I have talked about or planned to talk about have signed contracts.  Because of that, I’m going to dedicate these next four weeks to the one thing I enjoy writing about the most…Blind Contract Comparisons.  The first article I ever wrote for Dynasty Owner was a Blind Comparison and it’s still one of my favorites to date.  Before we start on the comparison, here is a little bit of news.

The News

Brian Hill has signed with the Tennessee Titans.  The details of this contract have not been released yet, but he will be a Titan.  Not much dynasty implication for this move.  Hill is owned in less than 25 percent of DO leagues, and the best case scenario is that he is the backup to Derrick Henry.  He may qualify as a speculative hold in case of injury.  However, I would expect a Running Back by Committee (RBBC) if an injury does occur.

Kerryon Johnson was waived by the Lions on May 5.  A very disappointing ending to a disappointing career with Detroit.  The 2018 2nd round pick by the Lions appeared to have all the talent to lock up the running back position for years.  I believed it when he was drafted.  Unfortunately, Johnson was unable to surpass 1,000 yards in any season, and he averaged only 584 all-purpose yards per season.  Don’t drop him quite yet though.  The Eagles have claimed him.  This makes for an interesting add as he has the potential to provide competition to Miles Sanders.

Teddy Bridgewater was traded to Denver.  His contract is 1 year – $11,499,000.  This seems to be a fair contract for Teddy.  He will be coming into the Broncos organization looking to put some pressure on the incumbent quarterback Drew Lock.  I truly believe that competition breeds better players.  In the end, I see Teddy taking the majority of the snaps for Denver in 2021.  If he does, an $11.5 million salary will prove to be a value.

Blind Comparison

For these four weeks of comparison articles, I am going to do something a little different.  In the past, I have given the readers two players to choose from while I released the exact same statistics for each player.  Now, I’m going to give you a name and compare him to a group of stats that correlate with a certain player.  This may be challenging to compare as you’ll not only have to try and deduce who the mystery player is, but you’ll also have to rely on  your memory of what the named player has done over the past couple of seasons.  Let’s get after it…

Comparison

The question is:  Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner?

Player A (Alpha):

            27 years old

            2020 stats

            14.6 fantasy points/game (232.8 for 16 game season)

            79 rec / 932 yards / 8 TDs (16 game season)

            He missed 4 games in 2020

            Salary is between $8 and $10 million per year

Player B (Bravo):

            Corey Davis

Let’s break it down…The first thing you have to decide is how good Corey Davis was last year.  So, what do you think?  Did Davis outperform Alpha on a per game basis?  The answer is yes.  Here are his stats…

Corey Davis:

            26 years old

            2020 stats

            15.9 fantasy points/game (253.9 for 16 game season)

            87 rec / 1,312 yards / 7 TDs (16 game season)

            He missed 4 games in 2020

            Salary is $12,500,000 per year

Very impressive isn’t it?  I thought so.  Even more impressive is the fact that Davis was 16 yards away from 1,000 receiving despite missing a fourth of the season.  But you may say, “well yeah, but now he’s playing for the Jets.”  That is a fair and solid point (or at least it seems to be).  What are your concerns about Corey Davis this year?  Here are my Top 3…

  1. He’s on a new team.  Specifically, a team that passes at a low volume.
  2. He’s a “late breakout” wide receiver on his second contract and is 26 years old.
  3. He’s playing for the New York Jets.  The team that was somehow able to screw up tanking.

I don’t want to beat up on Davis or the Jets, but all three of these points are valid.  Now let me tell you why I don’t care about any of them when it comes to this comparison.

First, it is true that Davis has found a new home, and it happens to be on the team that was 29th in passing attempts in 2020.  What’s also true is that Davis leaves the Titans who were 30th in passing attempts in 2020.  Yes, the Jets had 14 more pass attempts than the Titans.  They were, no doubt, less valuable attempts because Tannehill is better than Darnold, but the volume was there.

Second, it is true that he’s a late breakout receiver, but so is Alpha.  In fact, Alpha is 19 months older than Davis.

Finally, and most importantly, yes Davis is playing for the hapless Jets, but here is the twist…

so is Alpha.

That’s right, Alpha is Corey Davis’ teammate, Jamison Crowder.  Here is how the final stats compare next to each other.

PlayerAgePoints/GameRecYardsTDsSalary
J. Crowder2714.6799328$9,500,000
C. Davis2615.9871,3127$12,500,000

(All stats are based on a full 16 game average)

I would be willing to guess that the majority of Owners reading this would have chosen Alpha at the start of this comparison.  I could be wrong, but that’s my initial impression.  You still may like Crowder over Davis, and that’s fine.  A $3,000,000 discount is not negligible.  But if it’s my decision, I’m taking Davis.  I will pay up to get the more talented, younger receiver on the team.  For what it’s worth, the ownership percentage agrees with me.  Crowder is owned in 53 percent of DO leagues while Davis is owned in 80 percent of DO leagues.

As always, thank you for reading.  I’m back this week with a video that pairs with this article.  I would suggest giving this a read and then watching the video for a more personal touch.  Next week, we will analyze a team that has some more offensive weapons to compare than the Jets.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

NFL Draft Day 2 Pick Reaction

Day 2 of the NFL Draft is possibly the most exciting of the days for fantasy football players. Usually, a good chunk of the players that we look at year in and year out, are selected during the second and third rounds of the NFL Draft. This year it was a bit more sparse then in the past, but there is still plenty to be excited about! Here are a few I’m looking forward to watching closely.

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