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By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Good afternoon Dynasty Owners and welcome to another Wednesday article. This week marks the halfway point of my article series Contract Speculation and Breakdown. We have gone through 16 NFL teams since the start of the year, and we will go through the remaining 16 prior to kickoff on Week 1. As I’ve mentioned before, the speculation portion of my articles has dwindled. This was expected since there is just not much to speculate about anymore. Many of the free agents that I have talked about or planned to talk about have signed contracts. Because of that, I’m going to dedicate these next four weeks to the one thing I enjoy writing about the most…Blind Contract Comparisons. The first article I ever wrote for Dynasty Owner was a Blind Comparison and it’s still one of my favorites to date. Before we start on the comparison, here is a little bit of news.
The News
Brian Hill has signed with the Tennessee Titans. The details of this contract have not been released yet, but he will be a Titan. Not much dynasty implication for this move. Hill is owned in less than 25 percent of DO leagues, and the best case scenario is that he is the backup to Derrick Henry. He may qualify as a speculative hold in case of injury. However, I would expect a Running Back by Committee (RBBC) if an injury does occur.
Kerryon Johnson was waived by the Lions on May 5. A very disappointing ending to a disappointing career with Detroit. The 2018 2nd round pick by the Lions appeared to have all the talent to lock up the running back position for years. I believed it when he was drafted. Unfortunately, Johnson was unable to surpass 1,000 yards in any season, and he averaged only 584 all-purpose yards per season. Don’t drop him quite yet though. The Eagles have claimed him. This makes for an interesting add as he has the potential to provide competition to Miles Sanders.
Teddy Bridgewater was traded to Denver. His contract is 1 year – $11,499,000. This seems to be a fair contract for Teddy. He will be coming into the Broncos organization looking to put some pressure on the incumbent quarterback Drew Lock. I truly believe that competition breeds better players. In the end, I see Teddy taking the majority of the snaps for Denver in 2021. If he does, an $11.5 million salary will prove to be a value.
Blind Comparison
For these four weeks of comparison articles, I am going to do something a little different. In the past, I have given the readers two players to choose from while I released the exact same statistics for each player. Now, I’m going to give you a name and compare him to a group of stats that correlate with a certain player. This may be challenging to compare as you’ll not only have to try and deduce who the mystery player is, but you’ll also have to rely on your memory of what the named player has done over the past couple of seasons. Let’s get after it…
Comparison
The question is: Who would you rather own in Dynasty Owner?
Player A (Alpha):
27 years old
2020 stats
14.6 fantasy points/game (232.8 for 16 game season)
79 rec / 932 yards / 8 TDs (16 game season)
He missed 4 games in 2020
Salary is between $8 and $10 million per year
Player B (Bravo):
Corey Davis
Let’s break it down…The first thing you have to decide is how good Corey Davis was last year. So, what do you think? Did Davis outperform Alpha on a per game basis? The answer is yes. Here are his stats…
Corey Davis:
26 years old
2020 stats
15.9 fantasy points/game (253.9 for 16 game season)
87 rec / 1,312 yards / 7 TDs (16 game season)
He missed 4 games in 2020
Salary is $12,500,000 per year
Very impressive isn’t it? I thought so. Even more impressive is the fact that Davis was 16 yards away from 1,000 receiving despite missing a fourth of the season. But you may say, “well yeah, but now he’s playing for the Jets.” That is a fair and solid point (or at least it seems to be). What are your concerns about Corey Davis this year? Here are my Top 3…
- He’s on a new team. Specifically, a team that passes at a low volume.
- He’s a “late breakout” wide receiver on his second contract and is 26 years old.
- He’s playing for the New York Jets. The team that was somehow able to screw up tanking.
I don’t want to beat up on Davis or the Jets, but all three of these points are valid. Now let me tell you why I don’t care about any of them when it comes to this comparison.
First, it is true that Davis has found a new home, and it happens to be on the team that was 29th in passing attempts in 2020. What’s also true is that Davis leaves the Titans who were 30th in passing attempts in 2020. Yes, the Jets had 14 more pass attempts than the Titans. They were, no doubt, less valuable attempts because Tannehill is better than Darnold, but the volume was there.
Second, it is true that he’s a late breakout receiver, but so is Alpha. In fact, Alpha is 19 months older than Davis.
Finally, and most importantly, yes Davis is playing for the hapless Jets, but here is the twist…
—
—
—
so is Alpha.
That’s right, Alpha is Corey Davis’ teammate, Jamison Crowder. Here is how the final stats compare next to each other.
| Player | Age | Points/Game | Rec | Yards | TDs | Salary |
| J. Crowder | 27 | 14.6 | 79 | 932 | 8 | $9,500,000 |
| C. Davis | 26 | 15.9 | 87 | 1,312 | 7 | $12,500,000 |
(All stats are based on a full 16 game average)
I would be willing to guess that the majority of Owners reading this would have chosen Alpha at the start of this comparison. I could be wrong, but that’s my initial impression. You still may like Crowder over Davis, and that’s fine. A $3,000,000 discount is not negligible. But if it’s my decision, I’m taking Davis. I will pay up to get the more talented, younger receiver on the team. For what it’s worth, the ownership percentage agrees with me. Crowder is owned in 53 percent of DO leagues while Davis is owned in 80 percent of DO leagues.
As always, thank you for reading. I’m back this week with a video that pairs with this article. I would suggest giving this a read and then watching the video for a more personal touch. Next week, we will analyze a team that has some more offensive weapons to compare than the Jets. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk