To Stack or Not to Stack?

By Steven Van Tassell

To steal a line from Hamlet, that is the question. For the past two weeks, I’ve discussed stacking QBs with WRs or TEs and who the top stacks were in 2020 and might be in 2021. It was presented as a fact that stacking was a good idea and that all Dynasty Owners should try and do so with the players on their roster. However, what does the 2020 Dynasty Owner data say about stacking? Did League Champions and Chase for the Ring contenders stack a QB-WR, a QB-TE, or did they not stack anybody at all?

Lots of fantasy analysts will tell you to stack, or not to stack, and maybe provide examples of when they did one or the other and won a title. Where else but Dynasty Owner are you going to find an analysis of whether or not the people who won their League Championship last season had a stack or not? Nowhere else as none of the other major platforms (ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo!, Sleeper, My Fantasy League, etc.) provide this type of data and analysis about the people and teams playing on their platform. Just Dynasty Owner! It’s another thing that makes Dynasty Owner unique and great.

Dynasty Owner also has the Chase for the Ring and a 25-team Leaderboard that you can check out and see how those teams put together their roster, Starting lineup and Bench. As I’ve written before, our 2020 Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team (League #35395) had a three-player stack from the Kansas City Chiefs with QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. However, the team that finished second overall (Quaranteed for Greatness) didn’t have a single stack in their starting lineup in the playoffs. They had both Hill and Kelce, but Josh Allen at QB and no other Bills players in their Starting lineup or Bench, not even a kicker.

All stack data are taken from the final two weeks of the 2020 Dynasty Owner playoffs (Weeks 15 and 16). All rosters had been frozen at this point in the season so no players could be added or dropped. The overall level of stacking throughout the season may be understated as teams could have had players on the Practice Squad or Injured Reserve who were part of a stack during the season, but not in Weeks 15 and 16. For example, a team with Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb may have stacked those WRs with QB Dak Prescott at the start of the season, but not been counted since Prescott was injured and didn’t play in the Dynasty Owner playoffs. Not all Dynasty Owner leagues are included as some teams have been sold (another way that Dynasty Owner is different) or orphaned and lineups for their playoff games are unavailable.

The Answer to the Question is a Qualified “Yes”

It appears that stacking can help you win your League Championship. Just over half (52%) of all League winners had some type of stack (QB-RB, QB-WR, or QB-TE) in either their Starting lineup or on their Bench during their playoffs, compared to one-third (33%) who did not. One-sixth (16%) of winners’ rosters could not be analyzed. Among the teams in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring, a majority (56%) had a stack while just over one-third (36%) did not, with two out of 25 teams (8%) not being able to be analyzed. Among Top 10 Chase teams, the split was 60% with a stack versus 40% without one.

Any Playoff Stack% of Teams% of Top 25% of Top 10
Yes52%56%60%
No33%36%40%
Unknown16%8%0%

As mentioned before, this is a very generous definition of having a “stack”. There are several reasons:

  1. It includes QB-RB stacks (say QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry from the Tennessee Titans) as well as the more traditional QB-WR and QB-TE stacks talked about in previous articles.
  2. The team could have utilized a stack in either playoff week, or both, but didn’t have to do it in both playoff weeks.
  3. The stack could have been spread across the Starting lineup and Bench. Remember that Dynasty Owner scoring includes Bench scoring (20% of points scored by players on your Bench in 2020 count towards your final score with the percentage moving up to 25% in 2021). Bench scoring is another Dynasty Owner innovation that has to be factored into your roster construction and lineup setting calculations.

Even with this generous definition, the percentages aren’t overwhelming in favor of stacking. However, our percentages may be deflated as well if a team drafted a player stack and had that stack early in the season. These stacks could have been derailed by injury (Dak Prescott) or suspension (WR Will Fuller of the Houston Texans), not be used in the playoffs and not included in this analysis.

QB-WR Stacks Were the Most Common

Not surprisingly, the QB-WR stack was the most common type of stack and League Winners finishing in the Chase for the Ring were more likely to employ a QB-WR Starting lineup stack. Overall, 44% of League Winners who had a stack had a QB-WR stack, but the percentage jump up to three-quarters (75%) of Top 25 teams who utilized a stack and four-fifths (80%) of Top 10 teams. Since teams could have had more than one stack, the percentages below exceeded 100%.

Starting Stack% of Teams% of Top 25% of Top 10
RB28%13%20%
TE36%38%40%
WR44%75%80%

In fact, Top 25 and Top 10 teams were more likely to have more than one stack. And the data show that the QB-TE Starting lineup stack was more common than the QB-RB stack regardless of the type of League Winner.

In terms of players, the Bills QB-WR stack of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and the Chiefs QB-WR stack of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill were the most common ones. Despite the lower salary cost, no League Winners had the Patrick Mahomes-Mecole Hardman stack and only one had Josh Allen and Cole Beasley. No surprise that the Mahomes-Travis Kelce stack was the most common QB-TE stack and the only one fielded by the Chase for the Ring teams who had a QB-TE stack. A solo QB-RB stack of Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers-Aaron Jones was the only one that a Chase team had.

Other Stacking Facts from 2020

While Viktor used a three-player stack to help him win the Ring, it was not a strategy employed by too many League Winners. In fact, only two League Winners had such a stack in their Starting lineup for both weeks of the 2020 playoffs. Probably not coincidentally, both of them were in the Top 10 of the Chase for the Ring. The other team finished 7th (Rimmerworld Smegheads in League #31819) and they had Packers QB Aaron Rodgers along with RB Aaron Jones and WR Davante Adams.

A couple of other League Winners utilized a three-player stack as a Bench stack or a split stack with the players on the same team split between the Starting lineup and the Bench. This was how the 11th place finisher in the Chase, the Swamp Donkeys in League #27448, did it as they had Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams in their Starting lineup plus TE Robert Tonyan on the Bench.

All of the Chase teams utilized their stack in both playoff weeks, indicating the star power of those stacks. In contrast, a few of the regular League Winners did a stack in one week, but not the other one.

Some League Winners had a stack, but of Bench players. In fact, one-fifth (20%) of League Winners had a Bench stack, defined as two players who were both on the Bench, in Week 16, while one in six (17%) had a Bench stack in Week 15. Seven teams had both a Starting lineup stack and a Bench stack in Week 16, as did five teams in Week 15.

There were some split stacks, but not as many as Starting lineup stacks. About one-quarter of League Winners and Top 25 Chase for the Ring teams split a stack between the Starting lineup and the Bench with QB-WR split stack being the most prevalent by far.

Conclusions

It appears that stacking is something that Dynasty Owners should consider based on the results from the 2020 season. Just over half of League Champions and a majority of Chase for the Ring contenders utilized at least one stack in their playoff lineups. The QB-WR stack was most frequent with a skew of more Chase for the Ring teams employing this type of stack. The Bench-only and split stacks were less frequent, but still employed by some League Winners.

With the new salaries in place for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season, the prevalence of some stack may diminish, while other stacks have been formed to take their place based on free agency and the NFL draft. Dynasty Owners who choose to stack and pick the right one (or two) could have an advantage over their rivals in 2021 and find themselves competing for the Ring.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team are being released on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Mondays, while Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Maybe it’ll give you and other Dynasty Owners some ideas for potential trades too. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Tight End Top 10 Rankings

Broncos & Raiders’ Breakdown

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Today I will be presenting a double dose of team breakdowns.  As I mentioned in my previous article, I had skipped a team breakdown two weeks ago.  In an attempt to make up for that, I will be breaking down a tight end from both the Broncos and Raiders.  We have a lot to talk about today so I’m going to move right into the meat of the article.

Tight End Rankings

I approached the tight end position the same way I approached every other position.  I’m ranking based on Dynasty Owner value and not based on a single year’s projections.  There is little doubt in my mind that this Top 10 list will not reflect the Top 10 point scorers for tight ends at the end of the 2021 season.  Rather, this hopes to give you a good understanding on where to value certain players, especially the high-salary ones.  For example, Travis Kelce would be my number one tight end for 2021 if we were not playing dynasty or had a salary cap to worry about.  With that being said, here are my early tight end rankings…

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE1Darren Waller223$7,450,000
TE2Travis Kelce115$14,312,500
TE3George Kittle1935$15,000,000
TE4Kyle PittsN/A54$8,227,623
TE5Mark Andrews641$863,290
TE6T.J. Hockenson362$4,955,306
TE7Noah Fant882$3,147,680
TE8Irv Smith Jr.22122$1,449,609
TE9Mike Gesicki7111$1,652,981
TE10Dallas Goedert2071$1,406,068

Darren Waller is my Dynasty Owner TE1.  As I stated above, I don’t project him to produce the most fantasy points this year, but long term, he is a better value than Kelce or Kittle.  It’s also interesting to note that he is cheaper to own than Kyle Pitts (my TE4).  This is a strange occurrence.  Rarely does an established player make less than a rookie.  This happened in part because Pitts was drafted as the 4th overall pick in the 2021 Draft.  (By the way, this makes him the highest drafted tight end in the history of the NFL).  The other part is the fact that Waller played in only 22 games over his first three NFL seasons.  Waller was a late bloomer and therefore, received a smaller contract than he would qualify for now.  The point is that Waller is in the “sweet spot” of contracts.  Here is what I wrote about contract “sweet spots” back in January.

“Woods is in what I would call “the second contract sweet spot.”  He is old enough to have made it past his first contract, but he was not so productive in that first contract that he demanded top tier wide receiver money.  And much like Devante Parker, he broke out late.”  This was true of Robert Woods and Devante Parker.  It is also true of Darren Waller.  Waller should be making Kittle and Kelce money (right around $15,000,000 per year), but unfortunately for him, the cycle of his contracts worked out so that a top tier contract will have to wait another three years.  (There is always a chance the Raiders sign Waller to a contract extension, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen any time soon).  Suffice to say, if I’m drafting in a DO start up draft, I’m taking Waller as my first tight end if he is available.

Travis Kelce finished 2020 as the TE1, and I expect the same result in 2021.  While I think it is possible that Kittle or Waller takes over as number one, I would put my money on Kelce.  What’s interesting about tight ends is the idea that they have a very defined tier.  The top three tight ends are in a tier above the rest.  Some may argue that Kelce is in a tier of his own.  I don’t think I agree with that (especially when it comes to Dynasty Owner), but Waller, Kelce and Kittle are clearly the top three.  I think that my TE4 has a chance to break into that top tier, but I’m unable to make that claim so early in the offseason.

George Kittle had several speed bumps in his 2020 season.  He suffered a knee injury in Week 1 which caused him to miss two games.  He then missed six games from Week 9 through Week 15 with a broken bone in his foot.  It’s tough to analyze someone’s season when they miss half of it, but I will try anyway.  Kittle finished 2020 with 15.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game.  There were only two tight ends that produced more…I’m sure you can guess they were Waller and Kelce.  Yes, I know that fantasy points per game may still be a little skewed due to the fact that Kittle was most likely playing through injury and pain during those games.  While that is probably true, I’m sure that’s also true for the majority of NFL players.  If healthy, Kittle is a lock for Top 5 fantasy points for a tight end.  If Waller and Kelce are drafted, I would feel comfortable taking Kittle as the third tight end off the board.

Kyle Pitts ranks as my fourth tight end.  I was reluctant to put him at the four spot.  The reluctance comes not from his lack of talent, but at the fact that tight ends typically have the hardest and longest time developing compared to other position players.  As I mentioned above, Pitts is the highest drafted tight end in NFL history, and he will have a fantasy productive career, but I’m a little worried that it may be slow going in the first year.  There are two reasons I placed him at TE4.  First, the tight end landscape is shallow and mediocre (fantasy wise) after the Top 3.  A player with as much potential as Pitts almost requires me to place him in the Top 5.  Second, he will retain his rookie contract for the next four years.  While a little over 8.2 million dollar per year isn’t the cheapest tight end salary, it does look better when you think about the fact that everyone else below him in my rankings will be receiving a contract increase within the next two years.

I really wanted to rank Mark Andrews higher than I did.  I would have ranked him higher had he not come into 2021 with a single year left on his contract.  He is on, by far, the cheapest contract of any Top 10 tight end, but he will look to make at least 10 times that number next year.  I am also discouraged about the low volume he received last year.  He finished 2020 with 58 receptions while missing two games.  It’s sad to say, but I predict every other tight end on this list will have more than 58 receptions.  I would be happy to roster and/or draft Andrews, but just know he is not going to be a 100 reception player.  Chances are he won’t even reach 80 receptions.

T.J. Hockenson finished as the TE3 in DO last year.  That may be tough to believe.  I had to double check that stat for myself, but it is indeed true.  It is worth noting that TE3 (177.3) had over 100 points less than TE2 (282.6) though.  (Remember what I said about the large tier gap between tight ends.)

The second part of my team breakdown today is discussing Noah Fant.  Fant ranks at TE7 for me and a lot of it has to do with his salary.  Would I trust Fant to be my starting tight end this year?  Probably not.  Hopefully if you draft Fant, you draft him as your second tight end.  If you don’t, know that you are still getting a value of a tight end.  Saving on him early may allow you to take a chance on a more risky, expensive tight end later on.  Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Higbee and Hunter Henry all come to mind when I think of late tight ends.  None of these three will lead tight ends or jump anywhere close to the top tier, but they should provide enough production throughout 2021 so that you can piece together an above average tight end squad.  I love Fant as a value, but temper expectations.  Know that you are going to have an uphill battle if you intend on winning your league with him as your number one producer for the position.  Fant should finish as a Top 10 tight end in terms of 2021 fantasy points, but as I showed earlier, the difference between TE2 and TE10 is further than you would like.

Rounding out my rankings are Irv Smith Jr., Mike Gesicki and Dallas Goedert (in that order).  All three of them could be interchanged as you please.  I’m not going to argue with you if you like Goedert over Smith Jr.  I will note that Irv Smith Jr. has one more year on his rookie contract than Gesicki and Goedert which is what makes him more appealing to me.  He is also three years younger.  I’m very interested to see how Smith Jr. produces this year as the number one tight end on his team.  We saw bursts of excellence last year as he had two games with two touchdowns.  Yes, touchdowns are fluky, but the willingness to trust him with the ball in the Red Zone is certainly encouraging.

Before we wrap up, I wanted to drop three names of tight ends that I was unable to rank in my Top 10, but deserve to be mentioned.  These are players that I would not be surprised to see in my Top 10 starting in the 2022 off-season.  All three of them are talented enough to be Top 10 tight ends, but for one reason or another, have not had the opportunity.  The three players are…

  • Blake Jarwin
  • Adam Trautman
  • Cole Kmet

That finishes up my tight end rankings, and it also concludes my rankings theme that I’ve been doing over the past month.  Next month I’m going to get back into more traditional team/player breakdowns.  I’ve had fun with the blind comparisons and rankings, but as we approach the “fourth quarter” of my offseason articles, we will start to settle down and focus more on individual players.  It’s hard to believe we’ve gone through 24 teams already.  Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know what you agree with or disagree with as far as my rankings go.  I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Thank you all.  Take care and be safe. TheJerk

The Hateful Eight and a Half

By Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

I present you The Hateful Eight and a Half and if you are wondering why, it is called this, it’s because right now all the names you are about to hear are names you are probably tired of hearing and virtually hate hearing at this point in the off-season. As the so-called movie plays out, most characters are just fillers that give us something to talk about during the boring stretches and several won’t even make it to the end, just as we’ve seen happen on the big screen years ago. If you haven’t seen the movie don’t, I just explained it. What’s the half stand for you’re asking? Read the rest of the article to figure it out. 

As teams continue with Organized Team Practice Activities (OTAs) we as owners continue to finalize our rosters before the start of the 2021 NFL season. The offseason has officially hit the dead zone which means owners should sift through the news they are hearing carefully. Rebuilding owners should always be looking for players that will offer some type of value in the future, whether that be this season or next. In a perfect world we would just roster every one of our favorite players but as we all have learned that’s just not possible with rosters only holding up to 30 players. The strategic approach I like to take is to always have a few players on my roster who are interchangeable, for instance I picked up Josh Palmer in one league but if he doesn’t look the part and someone else does, I will drop him in a heartbeat for said player. The main purpose for this isn’t going to be to fill your team with 30 studs, though that would be nice. The true purpose of this is so that you can move the players you feel won’t be long term assets or won’t be there when it’s time for your team to compete for a championship and turn them into draft picks that always hold solid value.

I know this player is highly redundant as well as an anomaly but look at how valuable James Robinson was in 2020. I’d be willing to bet around 75% of Robinson’s owners did not have him on their roster at this point in time last season. As I said Robinson happens to be an outlier with these types of players usually only turning into a bust, or a player of Russell Gage’s caliber in 2020 at best and even then, it usually takes some time. I know during this point in the offseason it seems everyone is high on everyone, but rebuilding owners need to be rostering some of the unknowns and turning them into value when they hit on these players, in order to speed up the rebuilding process. As seen in last week’s article where I broke down some of my own trades, I had Russell Gage on my roster and used him as a small part of a deal involving D.J. Moore and pick number 1.02 which I feel was great value for a player that’s guaranteed nothing moving forward. All the while Gage’s team continues to draft more pass catchers around him, including Kyle Pitts who went number 4 overall in the NFL draft. In general, most of these players will end up not being fantasy relevant, but some of them will come out of nowhere to have solid games like we saw from Travis Fulgham last season, which makes these situations even tougher to handle because you must strike when the iron is hot to get full value. If you look back at the run Fulgham had last season just imagine the difference in trade value if you traded him in Week 11 or 12 vs Weeks 4-8 when he was producing like a true alpha. I honestly feel in Week 6 last season owners would have given up a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Fulgham but anything after Week 10 or 11, he was basically untradeable. The NFL world is a very tricky place to navigate making it that much tougher on rebuilding owners, but no worries that’s what I’m here to help with!

In this week’s article we are going to be talking about some of the players I feel could net value for your roster in the future that are still widely available in the Free Agent Auction. The players we are going to be talking about today are owned in less than 60% of Dynasty Owner leagues and are all younger players with cheap salaries. If these players happened to be owned in your league, there are plenty more like them, just look for players who have a chance to see the field in the next year or two because of injuries, poor play, or players moving to a new team. You can also nab any of these players listed in a trade for a future 3rd round pick if you happen to fall in love with one of them who isn’t available in your league.

  1. Marquez Callaway – Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints (2 years, $765,000), 53.33% Owned

Marquez Callaway is owned in just over half of Dynasty Owner leagues at 53.33%. I am not too sure why this is the case with the Saints Number 2 and 3 wide receiver spots absolutely wide open, but it needs to change. While Tre’Quan Smith is the likely favorite to play opposite of Michael Thomas, it’s nowhere near a given he has that role at the start of the season. Callaway had 21 catches for 213 yards playing in 11 games as a rookie and could be in line to see much more in 2021. The fact Callaway is playing for a great offensive coach in Sean Payton and will likely have former Number 1 overall pick Jameis Winston throwing him the ball makes him a no brainer to stash on the back end of rosters. In 2020, we saw Thomas miss time because of injuries and if that were to happen again in 2021 one of these Saints receivers are in line to become a massive value. The other thing I love about Callaway heading into 2021 is that the Saints did not draft a receiver until the 7th round, which tells me they believe in someone who is already on this roster.

  • Tre’ McKitty – Tight End, Los Angeles Chargers (4 years, $1,196,462), 34.17% Owned

In any dynasty format, it’s smart to tie your pass catchers to great young quarterbacks and just because we include salaries here on Dynasty Owner doesn’t mean you shouldn’t follow suit. Outside of Keenan Allen, the Chargers really have no one that stands out as a pass catcher, unless you want to include a running back in Austin Eckler. The Chargers also only have Jared Cook in front of Tre McKitty giving him an excellent chance to see the field quickly in his rookie season. McKitty was a 3rd round pick for the Chargers who somewhat underwhelmed in college but a lot of that can be chalked up to bad QB play at FSU before he transferred to Georgia and COVID once he was playing for the Bulldogs. Overall, McKitty is an athletic tight end who is a much better receiver than blocker, which is what fantasy owners typically love. He will likely take a few years to develop as most at his position do but he is a high upside guy playing with Herbert and worth a stash.

  • Jalen Darden – Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 years, $1,044,476), 50% Owned

Let’s play a guessing game. He is small in stature, he is a former quarterback, he played for a non-power 5 conference team, he transitioned to receiver, and he will be able to call Tom Brady a teammate. Remind you of anyone? No, I am not talking about the borderline Hall of Famer Julian Edelman, I am talking about Tampa Bay’s 4th round draft selection Jalen Darden. Darden is an extremely quick and shifty player; you know the type of guy Tom Brady loves. In the 2020 season at North Texas, Darden posted terrific numbers averaging 8.2 catches per game, 132.2 receiving yards per game, and finished 2nd in FBS with 19 touchdowns on the year. I do not expect Darden to be a major factor in 2021 but by the time 2022 has rolled around Darden will have shredded enough special teams units that the Bucs will start finding ways to get this kid the ball. I’m sure some will think that Tom Brady won’t be there forever, but I am here to politely tell you that you are wrong. Tom Brady will probably be winning Super Bowls for our grandkids’ children to watch. Tom Brady 43, Father Time 0!

  • Caleb Huntley – Running Back, Atlanta Falcons (3 years, $808,333), 16.67% Owned

While everyone zeros in on Javian Hawkins and Mike Davis, there is a way owners can zig while everyone else zags by picking up Caleb Huntley. The Atlanta Falcons have the most wide open running back room in the NFL with only Mike Davis locked in for a workload. Huntley was hugely productive in college at Ball State finishing his career with 576 carries for 2,902 yards and 21 touchdowns, while missing big chunks of two seasons. Huntley did miss quite a bit of time his senior season because of injury and COVID and I believe that was a major factor in him going undrafted. While there are more intriguing options in the Atlanta backfield, Huntley is well worth a stash going into the year. As I mentioned earlier it’s extremely rare to see a James Robinson emerge from nowhere, but I believe Atlanta’s roster has the best chance of producing a player like that in 2021.

  • Ian Book – Quarterback, New Orleans Saints (4 years, $1,038,396), 51.67% Owned

It is extremely rare that a late round quarterback does much in the NFL aside from being a quality backup, but if there is a coach in the league I trust to produce someone like this, it’s Sean Payton. Ian Book had a solid career at Notre Dame finishing with almost 9,000 yards for 72 touchdowns and 20 interceptions in basically three and a half seasons. Book was exceptional in 2019 with 3,034 passing yards, 34 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while leading his team to the College Football Playoff. Book could also be used in a similar role to Taysom Hill as he has underrated mobility and athleticism. I don’t expect Book to have any type of value this season but if Winston or Hill were to leave New Orleans after 2021, Book’s stock will rise.

  • Jarret Patterson – Running Back, Washington Football Team (3 years, $808,333), 57.5% Owned

Jarret Patterson is another solid choice of a running back to stash deep on your roster. Patterson was picked up as an undrafted free agent by the Washington Football Team. I love the landing spot here for Patterson with only Antonio Gibson locked in front of him going into 2021. Patterson was one of the most electric running backs in all of college football for Buffalo including the 8 touchdown gem he had this past season against Kent State. Eight touchdowns in one game, watch out Alvin Kamara owners. In Patterson’s college career he was the true definition of a workhorse running back with 636 carries, 3,884 yards and 52 touchdowns in just two and a half seasons of work. I can see Patterson having a Darren Sproles type role to start his career if he catches on in Washington.

  • Tyron Johnson- Wide Receiver, Los Angeles Chargers (1 year, $695,000), 54.17% Owned

As shocked as I am about Marquez Callaway being rostered in under 60% of Dynasty Owner leagues, I am just as shocked about Tyron Johnson. Johnson is a young player who performed well in spurts last season and being tied to Justin Herbert never hurts a receiver’s value. If Mike Williams comes out and looks like the typical Mike Williams we have come to know, we could see a player like Tyron Johnson take a massive leap this season. The other huge factor I love about Johnson is the fact that both Williams and Keenan Allen have had trouble with injuries in the past which could allow Johnson to see the field even more. In just 12 games last season, Johnson had 20 catches for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns, all after being activated from the practice squad. Sometimes all a guy needs is a chance and Johnson will surely get his in 2021.

  • Frank Darby – Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons (4 years, $921,125), 37.5% Owned

While I do love the prospect of a player like Russell Gage, it says something to me that the Falcons addressed the pass catching position more than once on Draft Day. The Falcons doing this can mean one of two things, either they like Gage and think he compliments Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts well, or they are looking for an upgrade so Gage can stay in more of the backup role that he’s seemed comfortable with over the last two seasons when Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst/Austin Hooper, and Calvin Ridley have been healthy.  If the Falcons happen to not be sold on Gage, or an injury happens somewhere it could spell big things for a player like Frank Darby whom the Falcons took in the 6th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Darby was limited to just two games in 2020 because of injury likely hurting his draft stock and was forced to play behind Brandon Aiyuk and N’Keal Harry the seasons before at Arizona State. In the two healthy seasons Darby played behind Aiyuk, and one behind Harry, he had a stat line of 52 catches, 1,037 yards, and 10 touchdowns, while showing he is a capable playmaker. If the Falcons come to find Darby has some untapped potential after playing behind two studs in college, he could be a huge value for any rebuilding roster. One quick note from this is that Herm Edwards can recruit the receiver position well!

  • Tim Tebow – Tight End, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 year, $920,000), 22.5% Owned

Just kidding! Even if Tebow makes the Jaguars roster, he’s not worth wasting one of your roster spaces for, especially on a rebuilding roster. If Tebow does happen to make the roster I could see him used around the Red Zone here and there, but I don’t think he will ever truly be someone you can start on the Bench with confidence.

Conclusion

As you see I deviated from the typical top 10 that I normally do, and this was because I only want to give Dynasty Owners’ players I feel good about and not just a bunch of names who might have a shot. All of the guys listed above aside from Book and Darden have realistic chances of making an impact in Year One, or not making the team they are currently on. If you happen to find yourself in Week 5 and one of these players has played well the last few weeks, you’ll have to decide whether you’d like to try to hold him for the future or cash in and get some value before the likely probability of him flaming out happens.

Please feel free to let me know if I missed any of your favorite guys who are under 60% owned here on Dynasty Owner. As always don’t forget to check out Matt’s articles which release on Mondays and Steve’s articles which release on Wednesdays. That’s all for today folks good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Top Dynasty Owner QB-WR Stacks

By Steven Van Tassell

Let’s continue with trying to help everyone win their Dynasty Owner League Championship by analyzing stacking a bit more and tackling the far more common practice of stacking a top tier QB and WR. As mentioned in last week’s article on Top QB-TE stacks (https://dynastyowner.com/2021/06/top-dynasty-owner-qb-te-stacks/), stacking is a tried and true fantasy football strategy, but one that is more difficult in Dynasty Owner than a typical redraft or dynasty league because of Dynasty Owner’s use of salaries and a salary cap – just like in the NFL. If you’re not familiar with stacking, then check out that article for an explanation.

As mentioned in last week’s article, our 2020 Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team (League #35395) had a three-player stack from the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. In a “regular” dynasty league, Viktor would have kept that trio for years and years. However, because of the increase in Mahomes’ salary from just over $4.1 million in 2020 to $45 million in 2021, he can’t afford this three-player stack anymore in 2021 and had to drop Mahomes for free and traded Tyreek Hill away. It’s a shame for Viktor, but good news for the other teams in his league and another thing that makes Dynasty Owner so much different than any other dynasty league.

This week’s article will focus on QB-WR stacks. Just like the previous article, in order to be listed as a stack, the duo had to have at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with the QB scoring at least 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the WR scoring at least 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 13-game Dynasty Owner regular season. A total of 41 QB-WR combinations qualified based on these criteria, which is significantly more than the number of QB-TE stacks.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all 2020 statistics listed are from the Dynasty Owner regular season (Weeks 1 – 13). Projected statistics for 2021 are provided by Rotowire, posted on the Dynasty Owner app and website, and taken from the Mock Draft lobby at Noon on June 22nd. Salaries listed are from the 2020 and 2021 Dynasty Owner season respectively.

The Top and Best Value QB-WR Stack of 2020

Because the top QB-TE stack was Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, it shouldn’t be surprising that the top QB-WR stack of 2020 was Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. The duo combined for 703.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 Dynasty Owner regular season games, an average of 54.1 points per game. Unlike the Mahomes-Kelce which performed at a high level nearly every week, the Mahomes-Hill stack was more up and down with a high of 108.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 12 and three more weeks of 60.0 or more points. On the flip side, they scored less than 50.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points five times and less than 40.0 points twice.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT*
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Tyreek HillWRKC$18,000,000279.9$64,309
TOTALS  $22,106,447703.0$31,446

* DD/PT stands for Dynasty Dollars per Point (2020 Salary divided by Points)

Even though their salaries were over $22 million in total, the Dynasty Dollars per Point (DD/PT) value was only $31,446 which ranked as the 8th best QB-WR value in 2020. Of course, because of Mahomes’ salary increase to $45 million for 2021, last season was the last chance for Mahomes and any WR to be a top value for quite a while.

Not only was Patrick Mahomes involved in the top scoring QB-WR stack he was also involved in the best value stack. All Dynasty Owners are striving for value because of the salary cap and the best value stack of 2020 was Mahomes and Mecole Hardman. Hardman barely finished with enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 to qualify as he only had 102.6 points, or 7.9 points per game. Similar to Hill, he was very up and down as he only scored more than 10.0 points in four out of 13 games.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Mecole HardmanWRKC$1,248,763102.6$12,171
TOTALS  $5,355,210525.7$10,187

Overall, the Mahomes-Hardman stack was good for a total of 525.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a DD/PT value of only $10,187. Due to the increase in Mahomes’ salary to $45 million for 2021, the Mahomes-Hardman stack is definitely not going to be the best value in 2021. However, the Mahomes-Hill stack could possibly be the top scoring one again albeit at a cost of $63 million in 2021, or almost half of the entire 2021 salary cap of $127.75 million.

Other Top Scoring QB-WR Stacks of 2020 and Likely 2021

The top seven scoring QB-WR stacks of 2020, including Mahomes-Hill, are still intact for the 2021 season. This is pretty different from the QB-TE stacks in which only three of the top six stacks are still together. All seven of these QB-WR stacks scored over 550.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined (42.3 points per game) and six of them had more than 590.0 points (45.4 points per game). Out of the remaining six stacks, all but one of them will also have the same combined salary in 2021 as they did in 2020. The only exception is Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals as Hopkins’ salary is increasing by a little over $11 million.

If those combinations can do it again in 2021, then Dynasty Owners would be advised to go draft Josh Allen and pair him up with either Stefon Diggs or Cole Beasley. Diggs will give your more Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but Beasley is the better value because his contract is almost half as much as Diggs’ ($7.25 million for Beasley versus $14.4 million for Diggs).

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Josh AllenQBBUF$5,295,760377.2$14,040
Stefon DiggsWRBUF$14,400,000220.7$65,247
TOTALS  $19,695,760597.9$32,942

Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will cost just under $20 million in 2021, but likely much more in 2021 after Allen either gets a new contract or plays for his fifth year option of $23.02 million. Either way, he’ll cost more in 2022 and they won’t provide nearly as much value as they did in 2020 ($32,942 DD/PT) or could provide in 2021 at their current salaries.

For those Dynasty Owners who have Allen but not Diggs, they could pair Allen up with Cole Beasley who still has two years left on his $7.25 million annual salary. That pairing scored 42.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game compared to 46.0 points for Allen and Diggs, but costs less on a per point basis.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Josh AllenQBBUF$5,295,760377.2$14,040
Cole BeasleyWRBUF$7,250,000176.7$41,030
TOTALS  $12,545,760553.9$22,650

Of course, Beasley is threatening to retire due to his belief that the NFL COVID-19 protocols are not fair to unvaccinated players. If this happens then that potential 2021 value stack is no longer.

Two of the top scoring 2020 stacks (Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf of Seattle and Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins of Arizona) will cost Dynasty Owners just over $36 million in 2021, or about 28% of the $127.75 million salary cap. Each one produced around 600.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 2020 regular season and are projected to have a similar number of points in 2021. As a result, both will provide similar value in 2021.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Kyler MurrayQBARI$8,789,661473.8$18,551
DeAndre HopkinsWRARI$27,250,000306.9$88,791
TOTALS  $36,039,661780.7$46,163
PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Russell WilsonQBSEA$35,000,000460.4$76,021
DK MetcalfWRSEA$1,146,513305.5$3,753
TOTALS  $36,146,513765.9$47,195

The other two QB-WR stacks which both produced over 590.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 are from the Green Bay Packers (Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams) and Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett). Both cost about $75,000 DD/PT in 2020 with Rodgers-Adams providing more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (648.3 versus 591.7 for Wilson-Lockett) and slightly better value ($74,040 for Rodgers-Adams versus $76,475 for Wilson-Lockett). While both QBs have three more years left at their current salary, Adams will be a free agent in 2022 and is extremely likely make more than his current $14.5 million salary and Lockett has signed an extension that will increase his salary in 2022 by $7 million. Both stacks should produce plenty of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 (provided Rodgers plays for Green Bay), but will be more expensive to own than the other QB-WR stacks that produced a similar number of points in 2020 and are projected to do the same in 2021.

Any Good Value Stacks for 2021 and Beyond?

As mentioned before, the top QB-WR value stack from 2020 is no longer a value with Patrick Mahomes’ salary increasing to $45 million. The second best value stack of 2020 is also not intact as Texans QB Deshaun Watson got a salary increase to $39 million and WR Will Fuller also got a salary increase, but had to go to Miami to get his $10.625 million salary. The Watson-Fuller stack only cost $11,018 DD/PT in 2020 and the only other QB-WR stack that cost less than $20,000 DD/PT consisted of Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown (386.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, $5.315 million in salary, $13,740 DD/PT). However, with 2021 being the last year of Jackson’s rookie deal and the Ravens bringing in new WRs who should overtake Brown as the top WR in Baltimore, that’s not an advisable long-term stacking option.

The sad fact is that there aren’t any value QB-WR stacks that appear to be rock solid for 2021 and beyond. Either the QB is too expensive, such as Justin Jefferson being paired up with Kirk Cousins and his $33 million salary, or the WR is too expensive, such as Justin Herbert having his top WR be Keenan Allen who has an annual salary of $20.025 million. The teams with rookie QBs such as Jacksonville, New York, San Francisco, Chicago and New England all don’t have a single clear top WR option to pair with that QB.

  • In Jacksonville, it could be D.J. Chark (1 year, $1.112 million) or Laviska Shenault (3 years, $1.924 million) who is the top WR in 2021 for Trevor Lawrence, or maybe it’s veteran Marvin Jones (2 years, $6.25 million). Which one (or two) of those three WRs do you choose as the stack?
  • Zach Wilson could throw the ball a lot to either Elijah Moore (4 years, $2.235 million) or Denzel Mims (3 years, $1.36 million) and provide plenty of value. However, the Jets also gave a big contract to Corey Davis (3 years, $12.5 million) and if he becomes Wilson’s top option, the Wilson-Davis stack not nearly as affordable or valuable.
  • Trey Lance has two great low-cost WRs to throw to in San Francisco with Deebo Samuel (2 years, $1.81 million) and Brandon Aiyuk (3 years, $3.13 million), but if TE George Kittle (5 years, $15 million) is healthy, he’s probably the real #1 receiver on the team.
  • Chicago has Allen Robinson as the clear WR1, but he’s on a 1 year, $17.88 million deal so he’s expensive and might not be in Chicago long enough to pair up with Justin Fields. Darnell Mooney (3 years, $894,263) could be the long-term option, but that stack likely won’t be star caliber in 2021.
  • If Mac Jones becomes the starter in New England, it looks like his top receiving options are either expensive TEs in Jonnu Smith (4 years, $12.5 million) and Hunter Henry (3 years, $12.5 million). Out of the WR corps, only Kendrick Bourne is signed for more than two years (3 years, $5 million) so he’s the only long-term affordable option.

If we expand the QB pool to second year QBs, then we have a few more options, but three of those guys (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts) don’t have a clear WR1. Justin Herbert does, it’s just that Keenan Allen makes $20.025 million per year, so their combined salaries are almost $27 million. For the other three teams, it’s take your pick on who’s going to be the top WR.

  • Cincinnati has three WRs on long-term deals. Tyler Boyd (3 years, $10.75 million), Ja’Marr Chase (4 years, $7.55 million) and Tee Higgins (3 years, $2.17 million) are all quality WRs, but which one (or two) do you pick to stack with Joe Burrow?
  • Miami also has a lot of WRs. Will Fuller (1 year, $10.625 million) is expensive Both Davante Parker (3 years, $7.625 million) and Jaylen Waddle (4 years, $6.77 million) are lower cost and signed for as long as Tua, but which one of them is going to be better is an open question.
  • Jalen Hurts is the cheapest QB option out there at only $1.51 million, but his WRs weren’t very good last year and TE Dallas Goedert might be his top receiver. Both Jalen Reagor (3 years, $3.318 million) or rookie DeVonta Smith (4 years, $5.035 million) might be the WR1 for the Eagles in 2021 and beyond, but nobody is sure which one it will be.

There are so many options that it’s difficult to make the correct prediction and get both players on their rookie deals. If you make the correct selection, your Dynasty Owner team could have a great value QB-WR stack for several seasons. If you don’t choose the correct pairing, it won’t cost a lot of money but might waste a couple of prime years with a QB on a valuable rookie contract.

Conclusions

There are so many possible QB-WR stacks. This article only scratched the surface of the ones that could help lead your Dynasty Owner team to a title (and maybe a spot on the Chase for the Ring leaderboard). While there are several options that should produce lots of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, most of them are expensive already.

In terms of value, the sheer number of possibilities make it difficult to project the best value QB-WR stacks for 2021 and beyond. Dynasty Owners are left with a choice – choose a likely guaranteed high scoring stack at a premium salary, or try and determine which young QB-WR combination will be the second coming of Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. It’s not as easy as it looks!

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting and stirs up some trade thoughts for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Wide Receiver Top 10 Rankings: Kansas City Chiefs Breakdown

Kansas City Chiefs’ Breakdown

Hello Owners, and thank you for continuing to read my weekly articles.  I hope all of you are also able to watch my video breakdowns on YouTube or at least listen to them via podcast.  As all of you know, I am very passionate about Dynasty Owner.  I imagine most of you are too if you follow my articles.  I want to thank you all for supporting this platform, and for spreading the news about Dynasty Owner.  With that out of the way, I want to talk about last week’s article a little before I jump into this one.

Since the start of 2021,  I have been centering my articles around each NFL division and, in turn, each NFL team.  Last week was a little different, and I didn’t explain why.  When I decided to go with this ranking theme for the month of June, I expected everything to go pretty smooth.  We have four main positions that need to be ranked, and we have four teams in each division.  I was going to try and put one player from each team in their respective position rankings.  The quarterback rankings started with Justin Herbert.  Herbert is my number one quarterback in Dynasty Owner.  That week worked well.  Running back rankings, however, turned out to be harder than I thought.  I wrongfully assumed that either Josh Jacobs (LV) or Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) would be my delegate from the running back position.  (Hell, I had them both ranked as Top 5 running backs last year.)  As I said, that was a wrong assumption.  As soon as I stated each player out, I quickly realized that Jacobs belonged nowhere near the Top 10 and CEH was going to rank no higher than RB14.  I wanted to sneak CEH into the Top 10, and I thought about it, but it wouldn’t have been reflective of my true rankings.  Therefore (as you probably noticed) I did not have a “team theme” for last week.  While working on my wide receiver rankings, I found that we are going to have the same issue.  No matter how hard I tried, there was no way to fit a Raiders or Broncos wide receiver into the Top 10.  Here is my resolution.  Next week I will combine the Raiders and Broncos breakdowns into one article.  The next article will discuss Top 10 tight end rankings and both teams will have a tight end in the Top 10 for my rankings.

Wide Receiver Rankings

A few important facts to note before I release the rankings…

First, all Dynasty Owner leagues are full PPR (Point per Reception).  This means that you will receive one full point for a reception that any of your players completes.  Obviously, running backs and tight ends will receive these valuable points as well.  For the most part though, wide receivers account for the majority of the PPR points that are handed out.  This places a big emphasis on wide receivers especially if you would compare it to a ½ PPR or no PPR league.  So, what does this mean for my rankings?  To be honest, it plays into them, but does not affect the wide receiver to wide receiver rankings much.  What it does affect is my overall rankings, especially how low reception running backs compare to high reception wide receivers.  Think about Derek Henry for example.  There is a reason that he was not ranked in my Top 10 running backs last week, and the reason is not completely his salary.  Henry ranked 45th among all running backs in terms of receptions in 2020.  While that drops him below some of his pass catching peers, it also drops him below some wide receivers that you may not expect.

Second, as I mentioned in my previous article, these rankings are not only reflective of value, but they also reflect where I personally like to spend my salary cap.  I tend to avoid paying for expensive running backs (at least in the early rounds).  This allows me to pay for expensive wide receivers and quarterbacks in the middle rounds.  My rankings will reflect that, and it is the reason that I have twice as many “high contract” wide receivers as I do running backs in the Top 10.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
WR1Justin Jefferson793$3,280,701
WR2D.K. Metcalf652$1,146,513
WR3Tyreek Hill212$18,000,000
WR4Calvin Ridley542$2,725,178
WR5Davante Adams181$14,500,000
WR6Stefon Diggs333$14,400,000
WR7A.J. Brown1172$1,413,092
WR8Terry McLaurin2062$961,918
WR9CeeDee Lamb22153$3,502,503
WR10DeAndre Hopkins424$27,250,000

Justin Jefferson comes in as my WR1 at this moment.  What is the reason?  He’s on a rookie contract ($3,280,701) for three more years, and he was WR7 in Dynasty Owner last season.  Will he be the highest scoring wide receiver in 2021?  Probably not.  Will he be the highest scoring wide receiver over the next three years?  Probably not.  But he will be a reliably Top 10 wide receiver over those three years, and there are very few receivers who will have a lower DD/FT (Dynasty Dollars per Point).  JJ is top level value in the same way that Jonathan Taylor is top tier value.

DK Metcalf is WR2.  I project that Metcalf will outscore Jefferson over the next three seasons but that the point difference will most likely be negligible.  Given that idea, the extra year JJ has on his rookie contract is far more valuable than any year to year advantage DK has.

Here is where our “team theme” resumes.  Tyreek Hill is an unbelievably talented wide receiver playing with an unbelievably talented quarterback.  Here are Tyreek’s last three seasons…

 RecTotal YardsTDsFantasy Points/GameTotal Fantasy Points
2018871,6301320.9334
2019841,2841017.1273.9
2020931,4921822.3356.2

(Stats are based on a full 16 game season)

These numbers are very consistent, and any of these years would be on pace of a Top 10 wide receiver.  Yes, there is an elephant in the room, and it’s the fact that Hill costs $18,000,000 per year to own.  That is not a small amount, and it could be too much that you feel scared away from him.  I’m here to tell you not to be.  If you budget correctly for the rest of the draft, there is no reason that you should be worried about drafting Hill.  In one of my paid leagues, I have acquired Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Hill and Darren Waller.  Now, you most likely aren’t going to be able to draft all four of them in a startup league, but the point remains…it is possible to spend early and have enough cap to finish the draft.  Hill is not going to win any efficiency awards this year, but there is a very real (maybe even likely) possibility that he is the WR1 at the end of the 2021 season.  A few more points before we move on…

I haven’t mentioned the receiving bonus or Clutch Scoring that Dynasty Owner employs.  The receiving bonus is awarded as 6 points if a player has at least 200 receiving yards in a single game.  This is no doubt a rare event.  In fact, only three players in 2020 had 200 or more receiving yards in a game.  One is Tyreek Hill with 269 in Week 12 against the Buccaneers.  Can you name the other two?  (Hint: They both had exactly 200 receiving yards and only one is a wide receiver.)  While these six points being awarded is rare, Hill is the most capable player in the NFL to do it.  I’m going to make a bold prediction right now and predict that Hill will have two 200 yard receiving games in the 2021 season. 

The final thing I want to mention is Clutch Scoring.  Along with real salaries and bench scoring, Clutch Scoring is one of the many facets of Dynasty Owner that makes it unique.  Clutch Scoring is awarded as 3 points when any of your players score in the final two minutes of regulation or anytime in overtime as long as that score results in a lead change.  This also applies to tied games.  Obviously, this bonus is nearly impossible to predict, and to be honest, the success of the Chiefs hampers all of their players from receiving it.  However, if the Chiefs do find themselves down and in a two minute offense at the end of the game, Hill is one of the biggest threats to score.  We know he can score and that he can score quick.  Again, these bonuses are not likely to be awarded on a weekly basis, but Hill is one of the most capable receivers to get them.

Calvin Ridley has proven quite a bit in his young career, but he will have to prove it all again.  This time it will be as the Alpha on his team.  There have been numerous tales of secondary wide receivers that were unable to take over as the “lead receiver” after the Alpha left.  I personally believe that Ridley can and will do it.  It also doesn’t hurt that Kyle Pitts comes in as another prime weapon and matchup nightmare for future defenses.  Time will tell how successful Ridley will be as the Alpha, but with two years still on his rookie deal, he will have a lot of room for error.

Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs come in as WR5 and WR6.  Both have nearly identical salaries ($14,500,000 and $14,400,000), and they are both coming off of superb seasons (WR1 and WR3).  I wouldn’t argue with you if you liked Diggs over Adams, but Adams’ dominant season in 2020 (despite missing two games) puts him just ahead of Diggs.

A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin rank next as rock solid value picks.  The addition of Julio Jones in Tennessee worries me somewhat as he will take volume away from Brown.  However, I believe the Julio addition makes the Titans a better team overall which will allow for longer drives and more scoring potential.

CeeDee Lamb has the most expensive contract of all the “cheap contract” receivers on this list.  Even still, he is poised to have another successful year.  Hopefully in 2021, he will have Dak Prescott for the entire season.  If he does, I’m projecting a Top 15 wide receiver finish for him.

DeAndre Hopkins rounds out these rankings, and I struggled with this pick for quite a while.  He is by far the most expensive wide receiver in the NFL (it’s not close).  However, when I look at his finish last season (WR4) and his projected finish this season (WR2), I can’t help but think that his production necessitates a spot in the list.  I am aware that Hopkins is 29 years old and is reaching the declination point for wide receivers in the NFL.  I contend that even if he only plays for the duration of the rest of his contract (4 years), he will be productive enough to warrant a top receiver ranking.  As I said in the beginning, I will gladly pay for expensive wide receivers if I can successfully draft the cheap running backs.

*The two players (other than T. Hill) that recorded 200 yard receiving games are Tyler Lockett and Darren Waller.

That does it for me this week.  Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know what you agree with or disagree with as far as my rankings go.  Give me a shout if you just want to talk about fantasy football in general.  Also, I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Next week I’ll wrap up this division as I bring a double team breakdown and my tight end Top 10 rankings.  Thank you all.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Rebuilding Owners Should Make These Kinds of Trades (Part 2)

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

Is there a more boring time in the NFL than now? When the top news story of the day is about a 2nd year quarterback throwing interceptions in a pair of shorts, you know reporters are out looking for things to write about, regardless of how unimportant they are. With all of that said, I am here to spice things up a bit for you with some real-life Dynasty Owner trades that should help my team go from one of the bottom feeders of my league to a contender for many years to come. It will also give Dynasty Owners an idea of what to expect when trading for your personal teams.

Over the last year, I have been trying to understand the true trade value of players and contracts combined on this platform, and I come up with the same conclusion every time, which is all trades are going to be situational depending on who you are trading with. As you are reading this article pay close attention to trades #7 and #10 both involving pick 1.01 in different ways. I bring these two trades up because of how I handled the same asset with different values, but still got what I wanted out of the deal in the end. Over the years I’ve played fantasy football I’ve found most trades will depend on who you are trading with, but in those leagues, you can use a trade calculator to get a deal done. Here on Dynasty Owner, there are zero trade calculators and virtually nothing to reference trades aside from the knowledge you have and trades that were previously made in your league. In my opinion there are several factors that make Dynasty Owner the most enjoyable fantasy experience I have ever had, but the one that stands out the most is the tremendous differences I have seen in how different owners value different things.

I have mentioned numerous times in earlier articles that chatting with your league mates is the easiest and most efficient way to get a deal done. If you just start chatting and understand how different owners think and value things you will have a much easier time getting deals done. I don’t want to single anyone out but recently on Twitter I saw one of our owners annoyed at a trade offer he received. While I fully understand how that can get under someone’s skin, I truly feel in Dynasty Owner you will get these types of deals more often because of the way different owners value things when you add a price tag to it. When you factor in price, it can make for bad trades especially if one of the owners is up against the cap. I know I have made trades and felt I needed to add more but simply couldn’t because of the cost for the other owner. I personally feel the best way to attack these owners and get a deal done is to break the trade down in a message and show them why you need more to get a deal done, possibly by adding draft picks or swapping out a player that is cheaper with similar production. I have tried this four times thus far in my Dynasty Owner career and have made two deals I’m extremely happy with because of it. A quick example would be an offer of the 1.05 for the 1.01 which is obviously a horrible trade and will always be a No. I would message back explaining why there’s not enough value to accept and what I’d be willing to accept. If you don’t get a message back from the owner you can move on. If you do then you’re in business. I am not going to say who, but I was told a story about a very prominent individual in the fantasy football world who took over a team on Dynasty Owner and one of the first moves this person made was putting Russell Wilson on the trading block for a 1st round pick. Trading on Dynasty Owner will be interesting for quite a while to say the least.

(Before and after teams listed at the bottom)

Trade 7 – (4/17/2021)

Sent – 2021 1.05, 1.06, and 2.05

Received – 2021 1.01 and 3.12

At this point I knew I was going to be in the market for just about everything, but more specifically I knew I had to come away with one quarterback in the 2021 rookie draft. Leading up to the inaugural Dynasty Owner rookie draft, I truly had no idea how the draft was going to play out, which prompted me to make a move for the 1.01. As a rebuilding owner this was a tough trade to make because I hate giving up multiple young assets for one, but I love being able to somewhat control the draft at the same time. When thinking about it I looked at the 1.01 as a safer bet than the 1.05 and 1.06, with Trevor Lawrence being so highly valued among the NFL scouting community. Those types of players tend to work out more often than not. I also took into consideration that I would be able to get close to similar value, if not more back for the 1.01 if I decided I wanted to move it for more assets and ultimately pulled the trigger on making this deal. The other factor here was salary with picks 1.05, and 1.06 likely costing more than just Lawrence would by himself. As I’ve mentioned before young quarterbacks are gold in Dynasty Owner. Overall, I feel I may have overpaid a bit, but I did have a direction I wanted this team to go, and figured Lawrence would fit in well with my young roster. I also knew that my roster would look wildly different come draft day and loved the flexibility this trade offered in terms of the multiple ways I could go in the draft. The opposite owner in this trade was extremely happy with the deal as he probably got a little more overall value than me in this trade. I absolutely love making deals like this one where both owners leave smiling!

Trade 8 – (4/11/21)

Sent – Daniel Jones (2 years, $6,416,014), 2021 2.06

Received – 2021 1.07 and 3.07

I have slowly been learning that the owner that thinks more than a couple moves ahead will benefit greatly in Dynasty Owner. Heading into the offseason I had four starting quarterbacks and only one was someone I would consider borderline Top 10 in Ryan Tannehill. I knew the first day of the offseason all of my quarterbacks except for Sam Darnold would be gone rather quickly. The reason for this was because I knew in the next two years Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, and Sam Darnold would all either receive big contract extensions or they would end up as a backup somewhere, just look at Mitch Trubisky in Buffalo. With all three of these quarterbacks set for new deals I knew the time to strike was now. As you had seen earlier, I had already dealt Winston to gain some receiver depth and next up was Daniel Jones. The owner had originally messaged about who would be easier to acquire between Darnold and Jones, with me telling him I’d much rather move Jones. I wanted to move Jones first because I am not all that sold on him, and I knew with Kenny Golladay signing with the Giants he would have a bit more value over Darnold. The deal didn’t take long to make as I felt the original offer was very fair. Overall, I’d say both owners left this trade happy, and both got what we wanted. As far as long-term value goes, I am thrilled to gain another asset for a player who will likely be expensive or benched soon. I’ll take four or five years of a rookie deal over a Daniel Jones extension any day of the week.

Trade 9 – (4/15/2021)

Sent – Sam Darnold (1 year, $7,561,929), Allen Lazard (1 year, $675,000), 2021 1.02, 3.06, 3.07, and 3.12 

Received- Tony Pollard (2 years, $796,945), Phillip Lindsay (1 year, $3,250,000), 2021 1.04 and 1.08

Do you remember what I said last week about the Jameis Winston trade? Capitalize on the news! Sam Darnold may very well be a talented kid, but it is not very often, that we see a player fail as miserably as Darnold did and come back and revive their career elsewhere. The one instance I can think to compare the Darnold situation to is Ryan Tannehill in Miami. The kicker for that is Tannehill and Darnold both played under the same coach, Adam Gase, during the worst part of their respective careers. When Darnold initially went to the Panthers, I had every intention of keeping him to see if we had another Tannehill situation on the horizon, but after thinking about it he would just be too expensive next season thus lowering his trade value significantly. Darnold is a very limited runner with the ball and that fact alone really caps his fantasy value, meaning in 2022 he will need to be phenomenal if you want him to return solid value while playing on his fifth year option, which will make him much more expensive than his 2021 salary (1 year, $7,561,929).

All in all, I had to move back 2 spots to the 1.04, picked up an extra 1st round pick in the 1.08, and got two solid young running backs in Tony Pollard and Phillip Lindsay for some much-needed bench depth at the position. The other owner approached me because he needed a quarterback and after a few messages back and forth we had a deal. The only things I would be worried about as the other owner is how much the Panthers will pay Darnold, and will he be able to turn into what we all hoped he’d be when he was drafted third overall by the Jets. I feel both owners left this trade happy with him getting his potential QB of the future for his team and myself getting an extra quality draft pick in a year with a very deep first round. I do want to mention that had this been a somewhat shallow class in terms of position players I may not have made this move, but I was certain there would be great value left at the 1.08.

Trade 10 – (5/07/2021)

Sent – Russell Gage (1 year, $654,049), A.J. Dillon (3 years, $1,321,458), 2021 1.01

Received – D.J. Moore (2 years, $2,792,829), 2021 1.02 and 2.12

In all fantasy football there are trades that just seem harder to make than others for us owners and this happened to be one of those trades. The other owner approached me about the 1.01 and asked who I had planned to take, which was initially Trevor Lawrence or Najee Harris. I looked at the other owner’s team and knew for certain he was after Harris as he had a solid team but needed running back help pretty bad. I responded telling him the two players I was thinking and that I was unsure of a deal. I knew in the back of my head it wasn’t likely I would take Harris at this point, but I couldn’t let him know that and shortly after I ended up swinging a deal to move the 1.01. After some back and forth we finally agreed on the trade above which gave me the rights to D.J. Moore, and I only had to move back to the 1.02 to get him in this deal. In the past, I have mentioned that knowing the other owners teams’ in your league will benefit you greatly, this is exactly what I mean by that. If I hadn’t looked at his team, I would have probably told him, I was leaning toward Lawrence and lost every bit of leverage I had in the deal. As a rebuilding owner sometimes less is more and if you can move back one pick while picking up a talent like Moore you have to do it every time. As far as the future outlook of my team after this trade, it may end up putting me in a bind having A.J. Brown, Dionte Johnson, and D.J. Moore getting new deals at the same time, but I do have players like Brandin Cooks, and Dak Prescott with solid backups if I really needed to clear out space a year or two down the road. The owner I made the deal with seemed to be happy with the deal as well after getting the player/pick he set out to get. The other owner got a bit of an added bonus in the deal a few weeks after with Russell Gage now having a clear path to targets after Julio Jones was moved to Tennessee.

Trade 11 – (6/04/2021)

Sent – 2021 1.02 (Kyle Pitts – 4 years, $8,227,623), O.J. Howard (1 year $6,013,000)

Received – Travis Kelce (5 years, $14,312,500), 2021 3.08

When you are a rebuilding owner you will run into a moment like this and in that moment, you will need to decide to continue rebuilding another year or pulling the trigger and becoming an instant contender. Overall, I feel that this trade sent me from a 3rd or 4th seed in my league to clearly one of the best two teams in the league, especially if we are talking about a few years window. I may still be a year out from winning it all, but if some of my younger guys make a jump, I can easily make a run at my league’s title. The trade I’m talking about is essentially a swap of Kyle Pitts and O.J. Howard, for Travis Kelce. Any rebuilding owner would gladly take Pitts but when I looked at my team, I knew I had about a 2–3-year window to stay as deep as I am and still have a potentially dominant starting lineup, because we have to factor in salary caps. If I would have stayed put and took Pitts, I would have likely had to wait a couple years for him to truly start dominating like we expect with the tight end position being so tough for rookies to learn and at that point I may be cutting a guy or two due to contract extensions or new deals for my players. Dynasty Owner is all about capitalizing when your roster has a good combination of talent and value. Once contract extensions start kicking in for multiple players things can become suspect rather quickly. The future of my team may have been a little brighter with Pitts over Kelce but the next three to four years have now become the time to win. The owner I made the deal with seemed elated to get Pitts and start building towards the future at the tight end position and I’d have to say both owners left this deal more than satisfied.

Trade 12 – (6/08/2021)

Sent – Anthony Firkser (1 year, $3,000,000), 2023 3rd

Received – 2023 2nd

About a month back Tim, Steve and I were doing a livestream and Tim asked what I preferred to do with guys I couldn’t keep because of price, my answer was and always will be to try and trade them for anything you can get instead of dropping them for nothing. I have a very solid roster and a very good tight end room with Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and Adam Trautman, which made Anthony Firkser available to move. I love the thought of Firkser being the top tight end in Nashville, but the addition of Julio Jones and the lack of cap space on my roster meant someone had to go before the season started. I knew I wasn’t going to get rid of any of my top tier players for cap space and I also didn’t want to just cut a young player with potential, so I ended up making a lower-level veteran available. I knew Firkser wouldn’t fetch much in a trade, but I also knew he was too good to just release so I started sending out offers to send Firkser away for a 2023 2nd. I chose to make the pick in 2023 rather than 2022 because most owners place a little extra value on the draft picks, they will make the soonest. I ended up getting some interest and turned a player I needed to move on from into a future 2nd round pick, though I did send him my 2023 3rd in return. The future of my team did not change much after the trade, but I do have an extra pick I can use to help get a future deal done. I am guessing the other owner is happy with the deal as well with him getting a solid backup tight end in an up-and-coming offense. At the end of the day, Firkser is a great player to roster as a competing owner, but I needed to have some type of flexibility for free agents heading into the season and tight end was a position I felt comfortable doing just that.

Conclusion

As we inch closer to the start of the 2021 NFL season, I am starting to get extremely antsy and I’m sure most of you are too. With the new season quickly approaching the time to get yourself and some friends into a Dynasty Owner start-up drafts is now. Start-up drafts have already started and will continue running up until close to kickoff for the regular season opener. If you are an owner who is having a lot of fun with Dynasty Owner, I want to challenge you to invite a few of your buddies over to check out the site and do a few mock drafts so they can truly see how much different this platform is, as well as the strategy they will need to consider going forward as well.

Over the next few weeks, I would like to try to set up a startup mock draft day each week on the same day at the same time (example Fridays from 5pm-7pm) to give those who are new to the platform a true learning experience as well as something the rest of us can use to sharpen our skills. If we get enough users for this to really get going it could become a great learning tool for everyone. I truly believe once people start to figure out what this platform is and how it works that we will see floods of new users joining in each off-season. Also, those of you that know people that will enjoy Dynasty Owner but don’t have the time to help them get going please send them to one of us here at Dynasty Owner and we will be more than happy to help. Thank you all for reading and playing Dynasty Owner! Good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Original Team (all player contracts listed are current)

Quarterback

  • Daniel Jones (2 years, $6,416,014),
  • Sam Darnold (1 year, $7,561,929)
  • Jameis Winston (1 year, $5,500,000)

Running back

  • Christian McCaffrey (5 years $16,015,875)
  • Joe Mixon (4 years, $12,000,000)
  • Kareem Hunt (2 years, $6,000,000)
  • Leonard Fournette (1 year, $3,250,000)
  • A.J. Dillon (3 years, $1,321,458)
  • Latavius Murray (2 years, $3,600,000)
  • Justin Jackson (1 year, $570,000)
  • Ryquell Armstead (2 years, $716,439)

Wide Receiver

  • Julio Jones (3 years, $22,000,000)
  • DeVante Parker (3 years, $7,625,000),
  • Michael Pittman (3 years, $2,153,212)
  • Anthony Miller (1 year, $1,338,425)
  • Sammy Watkins (1 year, $5,000,000)
  • Russell Gage (1 year, $654,049)
  • Quintez Cephus (3 years, $899,822)
  • Malcom Perry (3 years, $842,622)


Tight End

  • Dallas Goedert (1 year, $1,406,068)
  • Will Dissly (1 year, $777,569)
  • Jared Cook (1 year, $4,500,000)

Kicker

  • Greg Joseph (1 year, $78,000)
  • Brett Maher (free agent)
  • Matt Prater (2 years, $3,250,000)

Current Team

Quarterback

  • Dak Prescott (4 years, $40,000,000)
  • Justin Fields (4 years, $4,717,988)

Running back

  • J.K. Dobbins (3 years, $1,432,359)
  • Antonio Gibson (3 years, $1,233,159)
  • Tony Pollard (2 years, $796,945)
  • Javonte Williams (4 years, $2,216,438)
  • Kalen Ballage (1 year, $920,000)
  • Jaret Patterson (3 years, $808,333)
  • Phillip Lindsay (1 year, $3,250,000)

Wide receiver

  • Dionte Johnson (2 years, $1,070,241)
  • A.J. Brown (2 years, $1,413,092)
  • D.J. Moore (2 years, $2,792,829)
  • Brandin Cooks (2 years, $16,200,000)
  • Ja’Marr Chase (4 years, $7,547,410)
  • Michael Pittman (3 years, $2,153,212)
  • Anthony Miller (1 year, $1,338,425)
  • Quintez Cephus (3 years, $899,822)
  • Nico Collins (4 years, $1,217,879)
  • Tutu Atwell (4 years, $1,477,175)
  • Josh Palmer (4 years, $1,258,365)

Tight end

  • Travis Kelce (5 years, $14,312,500)
  • Dallas Goedert (1 year, $1,406,068)
  • Adam Trautman (3 years, $1,124,850)

Kicker

  • Matt Prater (2 years, $3,250,000)
  • Cody Parkey (1 year, $1,212,500)
  • Graham Gano (3 years, $4,666,667)

Top Dynasty Owner QB-TE Stacks

By Steven Van Tassell

Rookie drafts are finished for most established Dynasty Owner leagues and in the third round for the rest (I’ve got one finished and one still at pick 3.04). It’s also possible that there are some leagues still in the second round if teams in your league are milking the 24-hour clock, but that’s another story entirely. Regardless of your rookie draft status, it’s time to go back and look at how to draft your 2021 start-up Dynasty Owner team.

One of the best ways to start your dynasty is to draft a QB and receiver (WR or TE) from the same NFL team. For those of you unfamiliar with the term, this is called “stacking” and it’s something that a lot of fantasy analysts preach, and fantasy players try to do with their teams. Stacking a top QB with a top WR or top TE is a tried and true strategy, but in Dynasty Owner, stacking isn’t as easy as in your typical redraft or dynasty league. Adding in salaries makes it more difficult to stack players in Dynasty Owner because some stacks are prohibitive expensive and not worth the money. In addition, it’s difficult to keep both players in a stack as their salaries increase.

The benefits of stacking are pretty great. If your QB throws a TD pass to your WR or TE, you get 6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the QB and the receiver. You’re doubling your production on just one play! The drawbacks are that if one of those players goes down to injury or is unproductive, you’ve possibly focused a good portion of your starting lineup or salary cap on a pair of players who aren’t producing. Last year’s Chase for the Ring Champion Viktor and his Barbee Kilgore team (League #35395) had a three-player stack from the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. All three players performed tremendously all season and finished as the full season as QB3, WR2 and TE1 for the entire 2020 season. They are projected to be QB1, WR1 and TE1 this season, so it would seem like a great strategy to stack the three of them again in 2021. However, because of salaries increases for Mahomes and Kelce, Viktor can’t afford this stack anymore in 2021. He had to drop Mahomes for free when his new $45 million salary for 2021 kicked in and traded Tyreek Hill away, but kept Kelce and his new $14.3 million salary.

This never would have happened in a “regular” dynasty league, but in Dynasty Owner, it’s what teams need to do to stay under the salary cap and still be competitive. The Mahomes-Hill-Kelce stack was only $31.475 million in 2020, or 28% of the $112 million salary cap. In 2021, those guys will cost you $77.3 million, or over three-fifths of the $127.75 million cap. In order to have Mahomes, Hill and Kelce this year, you’d only have a little over $50 million left for the remaining 22-27 players on your Dynasty Owner roster. In contrast, Viktor still had just over $80 million in salary left last year for the rest of his Chase for the Ring winning team.

Since there are so many players to stack and we need to look back at 2020 and forward to 2021, this article will focus only on QB-TE stacks. In order to be listed as a stack, the duo had to have at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with the QB scoring at least 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and the TE scoring at least 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the 13-game Dynasty Owner regular season. This is to ensure that both players are worthy of owning. While it’s possible to stack Buffalo QB Josh Allen with TE Dawson Knox, Knox only scored 36.0 points in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Similarly, Broncos TE Noah Fant didn’t have consistent QB play during the season and QB Drew Lock only had 129.4 points in the Dynasty Owner regular season. Neither one of those stacks are listed as a result.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all 2020 statistics listed are from the Dynasty Owner regular season (Weeks 1 – 13). Projected statistics for 2021 are provided by Rotowire, posted on the Dynasty Owner app and website, and taken from the Mock Draft lobby at Noon on June 15th. Salaries listed are from the 2020 and 2021 Dynasty Owner season respectively.

Top QB-TE Stack of 2020

It should come as no surprise that the top QB-TE stack of 2020 was Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. The duo combined for a whopping 664.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 Dynasty Owner regular season games, an average of 51.1 points per game. They performed at a high level nearly every week with a low of 22.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 7, and a high of 79.7 points in Week 8. Only four times in 13 weeks did they score less than 50.0 points combined.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT*
Patrick MahomesQBKC$4,106,447423.1$9,706
Travis KelceTEKC$9,368,400241.6$38,776
TOTALS  $13,474,847664.7$20,272

* DD/PT stands for Dynasty Dollars per Point (2020 Salary divided by Points)

Due to their 2020 salaries being pretty low (less than $13.5 million combined), they only cost $20,272 per point. Only one QB-TE duo had a lower DD/PT amount in 2020. We will get to that later in the article.

Basically, the Mahomes-Kelce QB-TE stack was the one to have in Dynasty Owner in 2020 from a points and value standpoint. However, as detailed earlier, this is not likely to be the case on the value side in 2021 as Mahomes’ salary rockets up to $45 million in 2021 and Kelce’s also increases by nearly $5 million up to $14.3 million.

Other Top QB-TE Stacks of 2020

Overall, there were a total of 10 QB-TE stacks that produced at least 300.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 200.0 or more points from the QB and 100.0 or more points from the TE. The second ranked QB-TE stack was unlikely to be drafted by many Dynasty Owners, but proved to be very productive. It was the Green Bay duo of Aaron Rodgers and Robert Tonyan.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Aaron RodgersQBGB$33,500,000386.4$86,698
Robert TonyanTEGB$750,000138.7$5,407
TOTALS  $34,250,000525.1$65,226

In terms of points, they finished second with 525.1, or 40.4 per game. That’s 10.7 fewer points per game than Mahomes and Kelce. In addition, they cost over three times as much on a per point basis ($65,226 per point) and 2.5 times as much in salary, basically because of Rodgers’ $33.5 million salary.

The next six QB-TE stacks all had over 400.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined, but none provided as much value as Mahomes and Kelce. The closest combination was Justin Herbert and Hunter Henry from the Los Angeles Chargers who scored 427.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (32.8 per game) for only $17.25 million in salary. However, they were still almost twice as expensive on a per point basis.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Justin HerbertQBLAC$6,644,688309.3$21,483
Hunter HenryTELAC$10,607,000117.7$90,119
TOTALS  $17,251,688427.0$40,402

However, if your Dynasty Owner team had both Herbert and Henry in 2020, it’s not a stack anymore as Henry has moved on in free agency to the New England Patriots. The same is true for two other stacks that produced very similar points in 2020 (Matthew Stafford-T.J. Hockenson from Detroit and Ryan Tannehill-Jonnu Smith from Tennessee).

Best QB-TE Value Stack of 2020 (and 2021?)

In terms of value, which is what all Dynasty Owners are striving for because of the salary cap, the Baltimore Ravens pairing of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews is difficult to beat. They may have only finished with only 382.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 (29.4 points per game), but their cost per point was the lowest at $8,441.

PlayerPositionTeam2020 Salary2020 Points2020 DD / PT
Lamar JacksonQBBAL$2,367,912265.4$8,922
Mark AndrewsTEBAL$863,290117.4$7,353
TOTALS  $3,231,202382.8$8,441

Both players returned value with DD/PT amounts of under $10,000. That’s what happens when the two players make a combined salary of $3.231 million, or less than one-tenth of what Aaron Rodgers costs on his own.

But is it likely to be the best value stack of 2021? If both Jackson and Andrews stay relatively healthy and productive, since the salaries for both of them will be the same in 2021, it seems likely. That won’t be the case in 2022 as both players will be free agents and make significantly more in salary.

Projected Top QB-TE Stacks of 2021

Not surprisingly, the top scoring stack of 2021 is projected to be Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce with 798.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Patrick MahomesQBKC$45,000,000524.2$85,845
Travis KelceTEKC$14,312,500274.0$52,235
TOTALS  $59,312,500798.2$74,308

However, their new, higher salaries make their value not as great as 2020 as they will cost their Dynasty Owner $74,308 per point in 2021 if they hit their projections. That’s nearly four times as much as 2020.

In terms of projected points scored though, they are difficult to top as no other QB-TE combination is expected to be within 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points of Mahomes and Kelce. There are a lot of potential stacks projected to score between 600.0 and 660.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and a few of them could be much better values than Mahomes-Kelce.

The first one is our top value stack of 2020 in Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. As noted before, their salaries will be the same in 2021, but their production is projected to increase and thus make them even more valuable in 2021.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Lamar JacksonQBBAL$2,367,912436.1$5,430
Mark AndrewsTEBAL$863,290222.5$3,880
TOTALS  $3,231,202658.6$4,906

The Ravens QB-TE stack is projected to only cost $4,906 per point in 2021, which is over $3,500 less per point than they did in 2020 when they were the best value stack in Dynasty Owner.

Believe it or not, they aren’t even projected to be the best value in 2021. That honor goes to Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert of the Philadelphia Eagles who will make slightly less than $3 million combined and are projected to score almost as many points as Jackson and Andrews.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Jalen HurtsQBPHI$1,506,292422.5$3,565
Dallas GoedertTEPHI$1,406,068204.9$6,862
TOTALS  $2,912,360627.4$4,642

Hurts and Goedert together are projected to cost their Dynasty Owners only $4,642 per point in 2021. They will be about $300,000 in salary less than Jackson and Andrews and are projected to produce only 31.2 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points. While Hurts is locked up with the Eagles through the 2023 season, Goedert can be a free agent in 2022, which possibly makes this a one-year only stack.

For Dynasty Owners looking for a long-term QB-TE stack, the combination to draft might just be Bears QB Justin Fields and TE Cole Kmet.  Both are barely projected to finish in the Top 25 at their respective position in Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 and they will cost twice as much as either Jackson-Andrews or Hurts-Goedert. However, you’ll have them for a few years as Kmet doesn’t hit free agency until 2024 and Fields isn’t a free agent until the 2025 season. Their 2021 projected scoring isn’t that impressive, and their 2021 value is almost $10,000 more than the other two stacks, but they could be a great value as a duo for the next three seasons.

PlayerPositionTeam2021 Salary2021 Projected2021 DD / PT
Justin FieldsQBCHI$4,717,988324.8$14,526
Cole KmetTECHI$1,894,444139.6$13,571
TOTALS  $6,612,432464.4$14,239

They could be the next Mahomes-Kelce, or not pan out, like Broncos QB Drew Lock and TE Noah Fant so far in their careers. Dynasty Owners willing to take a chance will have several years to find out.

Conclusions

As you can see, there are many ways to stack a QB-TE in Dynasty Owner. While the Mahomes-Kelce combination will likely yield you the most points in 2021 as they did in 2020, it comes at a greater cost which could limit the rest of your Dynasty Owner roster. Going for value, such as Jackson-Andrews last year and in 2021, might not score your team as many points, but you’ll have lots of salary cap room for other great players who can contribute. Unfortunately, that stack will only be valuable for 2021 and then could end up costing close to as much as Mahomes and Kelce in 2022 and beyond.

Justin Herbert and Hunter Henry were a good duo in 2020 and provided decent value, but they aren’t on the same team in 2021 due to free agency. That could happen to a projected 2021 value duo like Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert (or even Jackson and Andrews) next year. They might break up and be on separate teams, or Goedert might stay but cost his Dynasty Owners a lot more in salary.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting and stirs up some trade thoughts for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Contract Breakdown: Running Back Top 10

Running Back Top 10

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The breakdowns continue as the rookie drafts conclude.  Dynasty Owner rookie drafts started more than a week ago, and the majority of them have finished.  The three Dynasty Owner leagues that I am in all finished between June 8 – 10.  One thing you don’t hear me talk about much are rookies and more specifically, rookie breakdowns.  I usually defer those conversations to Jay and Steve, but today I want to briefly touch on an observation that I made while navigating my own rookie drafts.  Full disclosure on my drafts…I didn’t have many picks and that was by design.  I tend to trade my rookie picks (the unknown) for established players (the known).  I have been doing this in my dynasty leagues for years, and this Dynasty Owner year was no exception.  Without boring you all with the details of my exact picks, I wanted to highlight something that I noticed as I took my only rookie pick in my Beta League.  The observation is this…

The fastest running back and wide receiver from the 2021 class are ranked considerably lower this year than in years past.  Let me break it down…

Over the last four years (2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021), here are the fastest running backs and wide receivers for each draft class.

 Running Back (Time)Wide Receiver (Time)
2018Nyheim Hines (4.38)D.J. Chark (4.34)
2019Justice Hill (4.40)Andy Isabella & Parris Campbell (4.31)
2020Jonathan Taylor (4.39)Henry Ruggs (4.27)
2021Kene Nwangwu (4.32)*Anthony Schwartz (4.27)*

*There was no NFL Combine in 2021 due to COVID.  Most stats are from teams pro days

So, what can we gather from this chart?  The main thing I see is the fact that 2021 is an extreme outlier.  All seven of the fastest running back and wide receivers between 2018 and 2020 would have been overwhelmingly drafted in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.  Not only that, but most of the seven would have been Top 20 picks for their year as well.  (Hines, Chark, Hill, Campbell, Taylor and Ruggs would have for sure been Top 20).  So, the question remains…why are Nwangwu and Schwartz going undrafted in many leagues, or at the very least, why are they falling to the end of the third round?  The answer is nuanced, but it also makes sense.  The obvious answer for Nwangwu is the fact that he was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings and will have a very tough road to meaningful running back carries.  It’s also concerning that he finished third among Iowa St. running backs in terms of carries and rushing yards in 2020.  The point can be made…”if he wasn’t even close to the best running back on his college team, then why would I waste a valuable pick on him?”  I don’t disagree with that logic, and I didn’t draft him in any league.  However, you have to admit that his speed is intriguing.  Nwangwu is owned in only 18.8% of leagues at the time of this writing.  Like I said, I don’t anticipate he will receive any meaningful running back carries anytime soon, but he is an interesting speculative add especially because Dynasty Owner awards points for return yards. 

Anthony Schwartz on the other hand should be added in most leagues.  He was drafted by the Cleveland Browns in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft.  Schwartz obviously has amazing speed, but he also joins a team in which he will have a hard time receiving any meaningful volume.  At best, he will be the WR3 on the team, and that is being optimistic.  In order for that to happen, he would have to beat out Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones.  There is a good chance however that Schwartz will be used as a gadget type player where he will have plays designed and called specifically for him.  In this way, he is also an interesting add.  I drafted him with the 3.10 in my Beta league, and I was happy to get him there.  He is owned in 61.5 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues.

Regardless of what you think about my breakdown of those two rookies, you have to admit that it is strange.  Strange that the “fastest” running back and wide receiver for their class are being relegated to the end of the draft or not drafted at all.

Well, let’s jump into some early running back rankings.

Running Back Rankings

Before I release these, I want to reiterate something that I preface all of my rankings with.  These are not total point rankings.  They aren’t only rankings for 2021.  They are Dynasty Owner rankings.  I’m attempting to make rankings that are relevant for years to come.  For that reason, my rankings (especially for running backs) may seem off.  I accept that others will have a different opinion than me, and I gladly welcome a discussion on why I’m wrong.  Hell, it seems strange to me that I have Cam Akers over Dalvin Cook.  It also seems strange to me that I don’t have Alvin Kamara in the Top 10.  I understand that may sound far-fetched, but allow me to explain…

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
RB1Jonathan Taylor643$1,957,287
RB2Christian McCaffrey5515$16,015,875
RB3Nick Chubb1151$1,845,774
RB4Austin Ekeler28103$6,125,000
RB5Cam Akers46113$1,543,258
RB6Najee HarrisN/A94$3,261,862
RB7J.K. Dobbins24123$1,432,359
RB8Saquon Barkley12271$7,798,688
RB9Dalvin Cook325$12,600,000
RB10D’Andre Swift18143$2,134,728

Jonathan Taylor comes in as my RB1 at this exact moment in time.  In 2020 he finished as RB6, and he is projected to finish as RB4 in 2021.  His salary is less than two million dollars for the next three years.  Do I need to say more?  He is, far and away, the value of start-up drafts this year and really for the next three years.

For how much value Taylor’s contract provides to Dynasty Owners, CMC provides that with his production.  Yes, he is making over 16 million dollars per year, but if he continues to do what he has done his entire career (including the few games he played in 2020) then he will still be a value at RB2.  If I were in a startup league and I had to pick one running back, it would be Taylor.  If I had to pick a second after Taylor is gone, it would be CMC.

I wrestled with the next two spots.  I have been flipping Chubb and Ekeler back and forth for the past few days.  Ultimately, I decided that the one year that Chubb has left on his rookie deal ($1,845,774) is too valuable to ignore.  Barring injury, I don’t see a world where Nick Chubb is not a Top 10 running back in 2021.  It is actually likely he will be a Top 5 back.  For that reason, I have him ahead of Ekeler.

Cam Akers is a player that I might hear some flack about after this article is posted, and that’s okay.  It’s better than okay.  It’s good.  I want to hear what Dynasty Owners have to say about my rankings, because it starts a discussion and only improves my views.  That being said, Akers is my RB5 right now, and he comes in as the second running back from the 2020 class.  I had a very healthy discussion about Akers in one of my paid leagues (League #27464).  There were some questions about how I could have CMC at RB2, yet not have Kamara in the Top 10 at all.  Most of it probably stems from the unknown.  I don’t know what the Saints’ quarterback situation is right now and that affects Kamara.  If something favorable happens between now and when my final rankings are released, then I will adjust accordingly.  For right now, CMC and Cook are the only two high salary running backs that I feel comfortable having in the Top 10.  This is the question I posed to some of my 27464 league mates…If you could draft a player that gives you 75% the production of Kamara, but he’s one tenth the price, why would you not always draft that player?  That is essentially what you’re doing when you draft Akers over Kamara.  This isn’t even taking into account the fact that Akers is four years younger than Kamara.

Najee Harris is the lone rookie on this list, and I am very excited about his future.  I honestly wanted to put him higher, but the unknown is a scary thing.  I’d like to see him play at least a little before I start considering him a Top 5 DO running back.

Sandwiched in between two 2020 rookie running backs we have two veterans.  Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook.  Saquon has a single year left on his rookie contract.  The contract is still a value, and (like everyone) he would rank higher if we knew big money wasn’t on the horizon.  Saquon is most likely going to make more than CMC currently does when he signs a new contract next year.  Of course, he will still be rosterable and 100% owned, but his value will decline rapidly.  Look for his salary to double next year from $7,798,688 to around $16,000,000.

Dalvin Cook will be just fine as well.  I project he will outscore Kamara over the next couple of years so that is the reason he is ranked higher.  It’s also worth noting that Dalvin makes $2.4 million less per year.

Finally, we have J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift.  Dobbins makes roughly $700,000 less than Swift and is projected to outscore Swift over the next few years.  The recent two year – $10 million extension of Gus Edwards is concerning for Dobbins owners, but Dobbins will still receive plenty of touches and opportunities to stay valuable.  I’m not more concerned about Gus Edwards to Dobbins than I am about Jamaal Williams to Swift.  At some point we are splitting hairs as both will have good seasons, and both are projected to have great careers.

I want to wrap this article up by continuing with my value rankings spiel.  What I don’t want to take away from this article is that TheJerk would never draft Kamara over anyone in the Top 10.  I don’t want you to think that because it isn’t the truth.  If you go into your start up draft knowing that you are going to spend heavily on running backs in the early rounds, then by all means do so.  What I am doing is giving you my opinion on where you can create the most value in your picks, and that is reflected in my rankings.  For example:  I would much rather draft a young, cheap running back in the first round and save money for quarterbacks and wide receivers in the later rounds.  Expensive, productive quarterbacks and receivers will be available later in the draft.  That’s when I want to spend my money.

That wraps up this week’s article.  I thank everyone for reading, and I ask that you look out for the YouTube video that pairs with this article.  As always, thank you for reading.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

12 Trades That Will Take You from Worst to First (Part 1)

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

A couple of months back I did an article titled Let’s Rebuild a Team Together and while I did not get the feedback I was hoping for, I still found a way to make it work. Initially I wanted the article to be something where you guys could have input on trades and things of that nature to help rebuild my team but with the difference of opinions on players it would have been difficult to say the least. The team we are talking about today is one I felt great about coming out of my startup but after Christian McCaffrey, Julio Jones, and Joe Mixon all went down to injury I knew a rebuild was my best option. When rebuilding a team, a lot of variables go into how long that rebuild will take but I found the thing that slows down rebuilding the most is lack of trading. In any rebuild, trading is the quickest way to completely change the outlook of your team. I was fortunate enough to be in what I feel is one of the most active leagues in all of Dynasty Owner and because of this I was able to turn my team around in one season.

Around the middle of October, I started to realize my team was not going to win and I had several players set to get huge extensions the following season and knew it was time to pull the trigger. I sent a single message in the league chat saying that every player on my roster was available for the right price. Shortly after our league had its first trade. Since that day, my league has pulled off exactly 50 trades (from what I can see in news and activity) and counting with numerous draft day trades. Overall, in this league I have pulled off 12 trades all with rebuilding my roster in mind and I will share the finished product with all of you at the end of next week’s article. I am sure some weeks I sound like a broken record when talking about how important trading is when rebuilding but today, I will put my money where my mouth is and show you all just what I mean. I was curious to see how different my original team looked compared to the team I’m rostering now and came to find that I only have five players left (kickers not included) from the team I had originally drafted, all in under one full year. The five players I have remaining are Justin Jackson (1 year, $570,000), Michael Pittman (3 years, $2,153,212). Anthony Miller (1 year, $1,338,425), Quintez Cephus (3 years, $899,822), and Dallas Goedert (1 year, $1,406,068). As you will see, I did not draft young and had to trade good veterans away to get young pieces back.

In this article I will list and breakdown every trade I have made up to this point. The article will have two parts with each article having six trades geared towards rebuilding your team. I will cover things like how and why I made the trade, salary implications for my team (if any), benefits of the trade, and how the trades look close to a year later. I have been wanting to do this article for a while now and decided the time has finally come. I hope you guys enjoy these trades and I hope it helps everyone understand how owners value players a little bit better.

(All trades are listed in the order they were made)

(All player contracts listed are their current contract)

Trade 1 – (10/29/2020)

Sent – Christian McCaffrey (5 years, $16,015,875), Julio Jones (3 years, $22,000,000)

Received- 2021 1st, 2022 1st, Jalen Reagor (3 years, $3,317,669), A.J. Green (1 year, $6,000,000)

The very first trade I made in Dynasty Owner involved the fantasy G.O.A.T. himself, CMC. As I have said repeatedly if you are wanting to rebuild quickly you must be willing to unload your productive veterans. I did not want to move CMC but knowing that he had already signed a massive extension I knew the time had come. Heading into this I wanted to stay as flexible with the cap as possible and as you will see later that decision turned out to be a good one. My main concern at this point was Julio Jones and his massive salary that was going to be tough to trade, so I made it a point to package him with CMC regardless of whether it was going to add more value to the trade or not. The owner I was trading with did not have the space to fit both contracts on their roster and I knew I had to do more to make this deal work. I am sure some look at the trade and are baffled I took on A.J. Green but when you look a little deeper, you will see it makes perfect sense. I had no intentions on winning and would have ample cap space when moving Julio so I took on the worst one-year contract I could find on the other owner’s roster which happened to be Green. The reason I made sure it was a one-year deal is so I could move on from him freely at the end of the year opening close to $20 million in space instantly. Overall, I was upset losing CMC but thrilled to have a ton of cap room coming my way, as well as two 1sts and Jalen Reagor to start building with. The trade helped both owners with him getting win now players for his championship run and myself getting a young player with great draft capital and two 1st round draft picks. Looking back on the deal I would say it is an even trade with him getting CMC and Julio back at full strength while I build to the future.

Trade 2 – (10/29/2020)

Sent – 2021 3rd, Joe Mixon (4 years, $12,000,000)

Received – J.K. Dobbins (3 years, $1,432,359)

The second trade I made was basically a plus one to trade number 1, it was made on the same day with the same owner. Before making either trade I had initiated talks in the league chat and this owner expressed major interest in making his team better for the playoff run. I was also able to find out through chat that he was a huge Bengals fan and wanted more of their players on his roster. Once I had this information, I knew he was the only home for Joe Mixon in this league. I remember after making this trade I was elated to land Dobbins for Mixon as a rebuilding owner.

When sharing the trade with Tim and Steve on the Dynasty Owner podcast the overwhelming reaction in the chat was negative because Dobbins had not found the field all that much at this point. I mention this because when rebuilding you must trade for the future and not right now which is exactly what I did. I knew Mixon was set to get a new deal the following season while Dobbins would remain cheap for the foreseeable future. Fast forward roughly 10 months and I would take Dobbins over Mixon 10 times out of 10 as a rebuilding owner and it only cost me a 3rd round pick. If you are one who reads my articles often you will see that I am doing what I preach the most, which is no running backs on second contracts when you are in a rebuild, especially the beginning of one.

Trade 3 – (10/31/2020)

Sent – Kareem Hunt (2 years, $6,000,000), Leonard Fournette (1 year, $3,250,000), DeVante Parker (3 years, $7,625,000),

Received – 2021 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Antonio Gibson (3 years, $1,233,159). O.J. Howard (1 year, $6,013,000), Andy Isabella (2 years, $1,157,469), Greg Olsen (Retired)

The last in season trade I made was probably my favorite trade because it required quite a few counters and a lot of thinking in terms of keeping the other owner under the salary cap while keeping a deal that made sense. The other owner in this trade contacted me after noticing I was blowing my team up and he needed reinforcements to help with his championship and Chase for the Ring run. If I remember correctly, he was in the Top 20 of the Chase for the Ring at the time of this trade. In the first conversation we had I flat out told him that he could have every player on my roster aside from Dobbins who was my first building block. The initial offer I wanted to send would have put him over the cap by almost $12 million, which meant I needed to get creative. Initially I did not want to take on much salary but when realizing I had no other choice; I quickly went back to the strategy of finding players on a 1-year deal that I could walk away from penalty free after the 2020 season. Unfortunately, the players he had on 1-year deals he was not willing to part with at the price I wanted (aside from Olsen), so I had to settle on O.J. Howard who was on a 2-year deal. I did not mind adding a player like Howard because he is still a young talented tight end and has not looked horrible during his time in the league. Looking back at this trade now most, if not all would say I got the better end of the deal, but the trade also helped the other owner win the League Championship, which can never be considered a loss. Overall, I am extremely happy with this trade as I was able to shed a bunch of salary while picking up three draft picks and an absolute stud in Antonio Gibson.

Trade 4 – (3/22/2021)

Sent – Jameis Winston (1 year, $5,500,000), Latavius Murray (2 years, $3,600,000)

Received – Dionte Johnson (2 years, $1,070,241)

Going into my first Dynasty Owner offseason as a rebuilding owner I had one major goal in mind which was to capitalize on news when it breaks. In 2020, when Drew Brees went down the Saints turned to Taysom Hill over the former number 1 overall draft pick, Jameis Winston. The move shocked more than a few people and left most wondering if Winston would move on from the Saints after just one year. Oddly, enough news broke, and Winston re-signed with the Saints and seems to be on track to start for the team in 2021, even after Hill signed a potentially massive contract. The only world this news makes sense in is in the NFL world but after all that is a part of this awesome game we play. When the Winston news started swirling, I knew I would be wanting to move him while the iron was hot, and it worked out when I had an owner contact me to acquire his services shortly after. The owner who contacted me needed a quarterback and a running back while I was a rebuilding owner without a stud receiver on my roster, which is where I always start at when rebuilding. The result of these conversations is the deal you see above. I feel lucky I was able to make this deal because I had four starting quarterbacks on my roster in Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, two of whom are in better situations now because of free agency. This meant Winston was truly an afterthought on my roster who may not even be starting in 2021 knowing the Saints. When looking back at this trade to see who won I would have to say it is still undetermined, if Winston gets the starting nod and cuts back on his turnovers the other owner will have a solid starting QB in a great offensive system, while I have an exceptionally talented receiver whose QB is getting closer to retirement every day that passes.

Trade 5 – (3/24/2021)

Sent – Corey Davis (3 years, $12,500,000), 2021 1.05 and 3.12, 2022 2nd

Received- 2021 2.06, A.J. Brown (2 years, $1,413,092)

In this trade I did something I told everyone to do when free agency started, send out trade offers for the players you are going to drop. I had zero intentions of keeping Corey Davis at his new salary, so I sent out multiple offers. At this point in my rebuild I was sitting on four 1st round draft picks and knew I was in position to really make some noise if I could continue to find willing trade partners. If I can remember correctly, I sent the owner Davis for his 2nd round pick and after a few back-and-forth counters, we finally agreed on a trade. The owner wanted to move into the 1st round, and I had zero issues letting him for a player like A.J. Brown and I threw in a 2nd round pick without hesitation. When I sit back and think about it, this trade did not have to happen and would not have happened if I did not take a few minutes to send out offers for a player I no longer wanted in Davis. When looking back at what this trade turned into for both owners, I would say right now it looks better for my team but if Davis plays like he did last year, and he can turn the 1.05 into a solid player, the deal may have a different outcome. As you will see later in the article the other owner ended up flipping the 1.05 for a 2022 asset and makes the trade completely undetermined as far as who wins or loses. The only negative for my team about the last two trades mentioned is that Brown and Johnson are due to get new contracts at the same time and may present a problem in the future.

Trade 6 – (3/28/2021)

Sent – 2021 1.12, 2022 1st, 2022 1st

Received – 2021 1.05, 1.06 and 3.06

I found this to be one of the most unexpected trade offers I have received since joining Dynasty Owner. Just four days after trading the 1.05 away for A.J. Brown I was offered a trade to get the 1.05 back as well as the 1.06, but I had to move off three 1st round picks to get a deal done with one being this year at the 1.12 spot. At first, I did not want to take the deal because well, who wants to trade three 1sts for two. When looking at the deal closer I knew it made a ton of sense and had to be done. If you ever hear people talk about knowing your league this is one of the many reasons why. I could have just glanced at the trade which I would have rejected and moved on, but after looking deeper I realized that two of the three 1st round picks were not mine and both original owners had very solid teams that are unlikely to produce a top 5 draft pick. After realizing that I started to think about the only thing holding up the deal which was my 2022 1st round pick. As a rebuilding owner the last thing you want to do is trade your future away, so I made a conscious decision that if I was going to make this trade I needed to try and make a run in 2022. Shortly after, I decided to take the trade and start loading up for a 2022 push and a massive 2023 run at a championship and potentially the Chase for the Ring. It is still too early to tell who won this trade and will come down to whether you prefer two top six rookies or three rookies in the 8-12 range of the 1st round, as well as who hits on their draft picks.

Conclusion

If you cannot tell that I love trading yet just wait until next week when I reveal six more trades I have made with this roster. I wanted to do this article to show anyone who is frustrated with a bad team that it is possible to turn it around in just one season. While I do feel I still have one or two more trades to make before I am ready to call this roster complete, I am incredibly happy where I am at now. I have mentioned this before, but I will again, if you are having issues trading in your league you can either wait until closer to the season when owners tend to trade more often, or you can hit the chat room hard and drum up some old-fashioned trade talks. Be sure to check out Steve and Matt’s articles/videos every week to continue increasing your Dynasty Owner skills and as always good luck on your Chase for the Ring!

Original Team (all player contracts listed are current)

Quarterback

  • Daniel Jones (2 years, $6,416,014)
  • Sam Darnold (1 year, $7,561,929)
  • Jameis Winston (1 year, $5,500,000)

Running back

  • Christian McCaffrey (4 years $16,015,875)
  • Joe Mixon (4 years, $12,000,000)
  • Kareem Hunt (2 years, $6,000,000)
  • Leonard Fournette (1 year, $3,250,000)
  • A.J. Dillon (3 years, $1,321,458)
  • Latavius Murray (2 years, $3,600,000)
  • Justin Jackson (1 year, $570,000)
  • Ryquell Armstead (2 years, $716,439)
  • Malcom Perry (3 years, $842,622)

Wide Receiver

  • Julio Jones (3 years, $22,000,000)
  • DeVante Parker (3 years, $7,625,000),
  • Michael Pittman (3 years, $2,153,212)
  • Anthony Miller (1 year, $1,338,425)
  • Sammy Watkins (1 year, $5,000,000)
  • Russell Gage (1 year, $654,049)
  • Quintez Cephus (3 years, $899,822)

Tight End

  • Dallas Goedert (1 year, $1,406,068)
  • Will Dissly (1 year, $777,568)
  • Jared Cook (1 year, $4,500,000)

Kicker

  • Greg Joseph (1 year, $780,000)
  • Brett Maher (free agent)
  • Matt Prater (2 years, $3,250,000)

Check out next week’s article to see just how far this roster has come!

Real Rookie Draft Analysis

By Steven Van Tassell

It’s been several days since rookie drafts started. Some drafts are in the middle, some are at the end, while others are still in the first round. I’m in one league that’s still in the first round (pick 1.11) and I saw someone else the other day say that their draft was still on the 1.03 pick. Hopefully, that one has picked up the pace, but it just goes to show that some leagues are taking the “slow draft” part at face value.

And we have those league in which the word “slow” wasn’t part of the equation as they are already finished. For a few of those leagues, we have the complete drafts available to review. Thanks to Rotting Husk of Al Davis (League #27444), Hershey’s Squirts (League #28031), Up Country Degens (Leagues #28297 and #35395), @buckdr3 (League #31928) and War Eagles (League #34636) for letting me know that their leagues were finished.

Since we only have six completed drafts, it’s not a great idea to draw big conclusions from just these data, but it’s still fun to look at them and see trends, surprises and interesting picks. As I’ve written dozens of times before, no two drafts are alike and because it’s Dynasty Owner, the salary cap is going to play a role in when someone gets drafted in every league. Because of salary cap restrictions, the “best” players might not be the first players drafted, or then again, they might be. The best part is that we finally know the answer to this question with “real” rookie draft ADP from a few completed drafts and aren’t just speculating anymore.

All ADP and draft pick information listed are based on the results of the six drafts (League #27444, League #28031, League #28297, League #31928, League #34636 and League #35395) completed by the morning of June 8th. Salary information listed are based on the salaries listed on www.spotrac.com and posted on the Dynasty Owner platform.

Stats from Six Complete Drafts

Let’s get started with some numbers. With just six completed drafts to analyze, it’s easy to say that no two drafts are the same, but just how different is surprising when you look at some stats about these drafts.

  • Number of #1 picks: 3 (Najee Harris – 3, Trevor Lawrence – 2 and Kyle Pitts – 1)
  • Number of #37 picks: 6 (D’Wayne Eskridge, Kylin Hill, Hunter Long, Davis Mills, Elijah Mitchell and Tylan Wallace)
  • Number of players drafted: 50
  • Number of players drafted in all four drafts: 28
  • Number of players drafted in only one draft: 9
  • Lowest ADP of player taken in all four drafts: 1.5 – Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
  • Highest ADP of player taken in all four drafts: 31.2 – Evan McPherson (K – CIN)
  • Most number of draft picks for a team: 7 (Country Roads Take Mahomes – League #31928)
  • Number of teams with zero draft picks: 4 (Teflon Hearts – League #27444, bobs – League #28031, Thee Camel Toe Jockey – League #31928 and TheJerk – League #35395)
  • Number of teams spending over $20 million in draft: 3 (Country Roads Take Mahomes – League #31928, Asian Zing – League #34636 and Dynasty Jock – Dave – League #31928)
  • Average team salary spending: $8,837,555
  • Median team salary spending: $7,528,273

Guaranteed First Rounders

With 13 first round picks in six drafts, a total of 78 players in theory could have been drafted in the first round. In reality, it was just over one-fifth of that number as only 17 players were taken with a first round pick. Out of those 17 players, 11 were taken in the first round in all five drafts. All 11 of these players were also in the First Round of the rookie draft ADP article that I did at the end of last week (https://dynastyowner.com/2021/06/rookie-draft-average-draft-position-adp/) in a very similar order.  In fact, the top five players here are the same ones from last week. Just goes to show that the mock rookie draft ADP and start-up draft ADP might indeed be good proxies for the first round of the real rookie drafts.

PlayerPositionTeamSalaryADPHigh PickLow Pick
Najee HarrisRBPIT$3,261,8621.512
Trevor LawrenceQBJAC$9,198,3722.213
Kyle PittsTEATL$8,227,6234.016
Ja’Marr ChaseWRCIN$7,547,4104.536
Travis EtienneRBJAC$3,224,5265.028
Trey LanceQBSF$8,526,3196.548
Justin FieldsQBCHI$4,717,9887.3313
Javonte WilliamsRBDEN$2,216,4387.559
DeVonta SmithWRPHI$5,035,3489.3613
Zach WilsonQBNYJ$8,787,67010.0911
Trey SermonRBSF$1,218,23310.5613

The few random things that stand out to me about these guaranteed first round picks are:

  • Justin Fields almost didn’t make this list. He had the largest fluctuation of the group, going as high as #3 (Garlic Bread Butt Shove – League #27444) and as low as #13 (War Eagles – League #34636). Not sure if getting Fields with his bonus 1.13 pick was why War Eagles tweeted that he was “feeling good!” about his draft, but that’s not a bad guess.
  • Travis Etienne was taken with the #2 pick in two drafts (WANNABEES – League #31928 and Asian Zing – League #34636), but didn’t go higher than the #4 pick in any of the other three leagues. Overall, his ADP landed almost exactly where it was in the mock drafts, but still a fair divergence of opinion on him.
  • The lack of fluctuation in the draft slot for Ja’Marr Chase (high of #3, low of #6) and Zach Wilson (high of #9, low of #11). Until the League #35395 draft was completed, Chase hadn’t even been drafted third so his fluctuation was even less. If your league hasn’t gotten too far in the draft, it appears that you know where you need to be drafting to get those guys.

Possible First Round Picks

The other six players who were taken at least once in the six completed rookie drafts range from the #6 overall NFL draft pick (Jaylen Waddle) to the second pick of the fourth round (Michael Carter).

PlayerPositionTeamSalaryADPHigh PickLow Pick
Jaylen WaddleWRMIA$6,771,49812.71015
Mac JonesQBNE$3,896,58812.71014
Michael CarterRBNYJ$1,071,84213.51116
Terrace MarshallWRCAR$1,432,37215.21218
Rashod BatemanWRBAL$3,149,85317.21024
Rondale MooreWRARI$1,731,06017.51222

The clear surprise is Jaylen Waddle’s appearance on this list. He was only drafted in the first round in half of these rookie drafts (3 out of 6), and was drafted not close to his NFL draft stock as he was never taken before the #10 pick. His ADP from the real drafts is 12.7, a couple of spots lower than his rookie mock draft ADP of 10.3.

We have a new Fan Club President! It’s The Northerners from League #27444 who took Rondale Moore with the #12 pick. He didn’t go before the #16 pick in any of the other five drafts. When I saw the draft order for the league, it was pretty surprising. Then I looked at The Northerners team logo. It’s the Arizona Cardinals logo. And it all made sense.

There’s quite a difference of opinion on when to draft Rashod Bateman. He was taken with the #10 pick by SKOL Vikes in League #35395, but was the last pick of the second round (#24 overall) in League #28297 by Up Country Degens. Up Country Degens also happen to be in League #35395, but didn’t take Bateman with their #5 pick.

Six Players Drafted in All Six Drafts, Just Not First Rounders

All 11 of the players listed below were drafted in all six of the completed rookie drafts, but were never taken in the first round. At the top of the list, we have Elijah Moore. He is a middle second round pick as he’s been taken with the #16 pick four times and the #19 pick once. And at the bottom, we have the only kicker drafted in the NFL draft, Evan McPherson. He’s also the only kicker who was drafted in these six rookie drafts. He’s been drafted in the third round in all six drafts, as high as with the #28 pick and as low as with the #35 pick.

PlayerPositionTeamSalaryADPHigh PickLow Pick
Elijah MooreWRNYJ$2,235,10717.21619
Kenneth GainwellRBPHI$953,88219.21822
Pat FreiermuthTEPIT$1,507,04519.71822
Chuba HubbardRBCAR$1,048,29421.81625
Kadarius ToneyWRNYG$3,429,87722.82027
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET$1,066,31323.52127
Kyle TraskQBTB$1,383,83425.02129
Amari RodgersWRGB$1,224,97425.32028
Javian HawkinsRBATL$810,00028.32036
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE$1,057,26430.02133
Evan McPhersonKCIN$955,92831.22835

While Javian Hawkins didn’t get drafted in the NFL draft, he’s getting a lot more love from Dynasty Owners. He’s been taken in all six drafts, including once in the second round (#20 overall pick). There was only one other undrafted rookie free agent taken in a Dynasty Owner rookie draft and he’s only been taken once.

All but one of these 11 players was taken at least once in the second round. Only Evan McPherson wasn’t taken in the second round. On the other hand, four players (Elijah Moore, Kenneth Gainwell, Pat Freiermuth and Chuba Hubbard) didn’t last until the third round in any draft.

While Kadarius Toney was a first round draft pick by the New York Giants, no Dynasty Owner in these six drafts took him in the first round. He was taken in the second round in five drafts and lasted until pick #27 (second pick in the third round) in League #31928 before being taken by The Shana-plan.

Solo Acts

There are nine players who were only drafted once out of six drafts. All of these picks were made with third round selections and nothing higher than the #30 pick. If these picks turn out to be great, all of the following Dynasty Owners can crow that they were ahead of the curve on these guys.

  • Kenny Yeobah (TE – NYJ) – #30 pick by ODBs – League #28031
  • Anthony Schwartz (WR – CLE) – #31 pick by MR.FRANCHI$E.2.U – League #34636
  • Gerrid Doaks (RB – MIA) – #32 pick by Garlic Bread Butt Shove – League #27444
  • Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) – #32 pick by Taylor Park Boys – League #34636
  • Jaelon Darden (WR – TB) – #32 pick by ENDZONE PREDATORS – League #35395
  • Cornell Powell (WR – KC) – #35 pick by Tyrannical T Baggers – League #28031
  • Larry Rountree (RB – LAC) – #35 pick by Country Roads Take Mahomes – League #31928
  • Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) – #37 pick by Dynasty Jock – Dave – League #31928
  • Hunter Long (TE – MIA) – #37 pick by Dan’s Dynasty – League #35395

Each of these players is someone who might be available in the Free Agent Auction in your league after the draft is over. They also might be someone who you should make an offer for someone’s late third round rookie draft pick if you want them on your Dynasty Owner roster and don’t want to take a chance that this is the only league they are going to get drafted in.

Conclusions

Since the NFL draft, we’ve been talking rookies, from how much salary cap room you need for them to their actual draft position and everything in between. It’s been a fun time digging into rookies after finding out their team and annual salary, but it’s time to turn our attention back to the entire Dynasty Owner player pool in future articles.

Dynasty Owner has great content coming to help you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be released now on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out earlier on in the week now as they will appear on Mondays. Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster and everyone will still get his insights on Fridays. All of the articles and videos will be released at 1 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who hasn’t finished their Dynasty Owner rookie draft yet, and at least interesting to those of you who are done. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner