Buy, Sell, Hold: AFC East Stock Watch

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By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

Can you believe it? Before my next article releases, we will have an NFL game to watch! The Cowboys and Steelers open things up in the Hall of Fame game on August 5th, 2021, in Canton, Ohio. If I had to guess why the NFL would want the Steelers playing four preseason games, it is because they have a plan to sap Ben Roethlisberger’s arm even earlier this season. See I make jokes about my own team too. In all honesty, I don’t care if it is Kendall Hinton starting the game at quarterback for both teams, I will be tuned in.

Rebuilding owners, it is time for another article to help you rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster! I am sure you have all figured out by now what this article will be. If you are just tuning in, we will be covering the AFC East in today’s article. The past three weeks I have covered every player in the three remaining AFC divisions (that we are not talking about today) and placed them into three separate categories – Buy, Sell, and Hold. Remember these players are being viewed in the eyes of a rebuilding owner. The Buy category are players you will see are placed there for several reasons but the most important is they should be near the prime of their career as you wrap up your rebuild. The players in the Hold category tend to be players with a lot of question marks, players whose value has taken a significant hit, or players who are stuck behind a stud. The players in the Sell category are aging veterans who will either be on their last leg, or out of the league by the time your roster is ready to compete for championships. Please feel free to let me know if there are any players you feel different about than I do on the old Twitter machine.

BUY

Buffalo Bills

• Gabriel Davis (3 years, $998,595)

I have not been shy this off season about my love affair for Gabriel Davis. Davis is someone I am expecting to break out in a big way and will be buying him everywhere I can. Davis is a young cheap receiver in an up-and-coming offense that we have already seen put up huge numbers.

Miami Dolphins

• Tua Tagovailoa (3 years, $7,568,859)

Tua had a very disappointing year in 2020 but I expect him to bounce back and have a good sophomore campaign. If you remember, it was not long ago we were talking about Tua being the clear-cut number 1 QB in his class, ahead of names like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

• Salvon Ahmed (1 year, $695,000)

I am not sure you will find another person who is as high on Ahmed as I am. I have loved Ahmed since his days in college at Washington. I personally feel Ahmed can be a solid middle of the road back if he can figure out how to stay healthy. If Gaskin goes down, the Dolphins have a good amount of trust in Ahmed.

• Preston Williams (1 year, $588,333)

At this time last season, Preston Williams was being talked about like the second coming of Jerry Rice. An injury and a year later, he is flying far enough under the radar that you should be looking at buying Williams.

• Jaylen Waddle (4 years, $6,771,498)

The speedster Jaylen Waddle was handpicked by Tua Tagovailoa in this year’s draft. The Dolphins had their choice between a pair of Alabama alumni, Waddle and DeVonta Smith, and wound up choosing Waddle. I am convinced Tua had major input on this decision, which should mean big things are coming for Waddle.

• Lynn Bowden (3 years, $1,177,354)

I am honestly not too sure what to make of Lynn Bowden. He came into the NFL as a running back with the Raiders and moved on to the Dolphins just a few weeks after his NFL career started. I believe Bowden as a running back is dead but Bowden the playmaker could turn out to be valuable later down the road. Buy Bowden cheap and see what happens.

• Hunter Long (4 years, $1,242,176)

While I am not particularly high on Hunter Long, I know a ton of people in the industry who are. If Long turns out to be the starter long-term in Miami, he will be worth whatever you paid plus some. I would say the Dolphins do not plan to extend Mike Gesicki after drafting Long in the 3rd round.

• Gerrid Doaks (4 years, $894,025)

Just as Myles Gaskin was, Gerrid Doaks was drafted in the 7th round of the NFL draft by the Miami Dolphins. In Miami, the Dolphins have three backs with very redundant skill sets, and then you have Doaks. Doaks is a big physical back who brings a different element to the Miami offense, you know like Jordan Howard was supposed to do last season.

New England Patriots

• Mac Jones (4 years, $3,896,588)

I love the landing spot for Mac Jones in New England. If there is an NFL franchise that resembles the Alabama Crimson Tide whom Mac Jones just won a National Championship with, it is the Patriots. I expect Jones to step in and shine as a teammate and a player who always does his job correctly. I could not imagine a better match for Bill Belichick post-Tom Brady.

• Rhamondre Stevenson (4 years, $1,057,264)

As always, the New England backfield is an absolute fantasy mess! I will end up staying away from any Patriots running backs, but rebuilding owners may be able to find value somewhere in this backfield. If you buy Stevenson now and he ends up the starter halfway through the season you will be able to move Stevenson for much more than you paid to acquire him. Owners who get through a rebuild quick tend to hit on a few unknowns and sell them at peak value.

• N’Keal Harry (2 years, $2,524,587)

Yes, Dynasty Owners, we are still talking about N’Keal Harry. Harry has been extremely disappointing during his tenure with the Patriots, but he is still young and can be had for cheap. If I am targeting Harry, I am doing it now before he is traded, or hits it off with Mac Jones and his value rises.

• Jakobi Meyers (1 year, $588,333)

Jakobi Meyers was quietly one of the better receivers in the second half of 2020. Meyers managed to put up over 10.0 points in 7 of the last 11 games. If Meyers can come close, or exceed his back half of the 2020 season, he will be a massive value at his current salary. Any type of players producing at a cheap salary will make them extremely easy to trade, it will also raise their trade value.

New York Jets

• Zach Wilson (4 years, $8,787,670)

I will admit I was a Zach Wilson hater heading into draft time and a lot of that had to do with me being upset Justin Fields was not getting the recognition he deserved during the draft process. Since Wilson arrived in the Big Apple, he has done nothing but impress everyone that has seen him play. If you can get Wilson cheap, he should be a decent option to start building your roster around.

• Michael Carter (4 years, $1,071,842)

I have said all off-season that the New York Jets running back room is the most wide open and this has a lot to do with how I feel about Michael Carter. At UNC, Carter shared carries with Javonte Williams and would be looked at as more of a surefire pick had that not happened. In New York, Carter will be competing with Tevin Coleman and La’Mical Perine, not someone with the talent of Javonte Williams.

• La’Mical Perine (3 years, $1,010,086)

If I am rebuilding, I am finding ways to get my hands on La’Mical Perine, simply because this backfield is wide open. I know I just said I believed in Michael Carter but this is the NFL where anything can happen. Perine will cost you next to nothing to acquire and if he ends up the starter at any point this season you need to reap the rewards by trading him.

• Denzel Mims (3 years, $1,358,425)

In 2020, Denzel Mims had a very quiet year, but one thing stands out about him, and that is the fact that I feel like he was on the field more than any other receiver on the roster. I know a lot of owners have concerns with Mims struggling in year one, on top of a new coaching staff, but that is exactly when you should be looking to buy talent cheap.

• Chris Herndon (1 year, $792,841)

I have Herndon as a Buy and I feel this rodeo is starting to become repetitive. Each of the past couple seasons most of us have hyped up Herndon because he flashed exciting potential during an impressive rookie season. While I am still buying Herndon be careful what you give up with a lot of reports on him being negative thus far.

Side note – right before editing this article, I saw news about Herndon practicing with the 2nd string offense. If this is true, Herndon becomes a Sell.

SELL

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (1 year, $5,295,760)

I know I may get some blowback from this choice, but I firmly believe it is the right way to go in a rebuild. In Dynasty Owner, I don’t know that there is a bigger value than Josh Allen for the 2021 season, but remember it is only for a year. If you are rebuilding and have Allen, I would look for the best couple rosters in your league and try to get as much future draft capital as possible from them in exchange for Josh Allen. If you can get multiple firsts and a stud player for Allen in a contract year, I would do it in a heartbeat. After thinking about it, this may be the fastest way to rebuild your roster.

• Stefon Diggs (3 years, $14,400,000)

I have Stefon Diggs as a Sell here for one reason and one reason only, his age. If Diggs were 2-3 years younger, I would be all in on him regardless of salary but at 27 years of age he will likely be on the decline when you are ready to win a Championship. You should still get excellent value in return for Diggs regardless of his salary.

• Cole Beasley (2 years, $7,250,000)

While I do love the toughness and consistency Cole Beasley brings to the NFL field, now is the time to cash in on him. Beasley had a career year in 2020 and seems to be up in the air over the vaccination rules the NFL has put in place. If I am a Beasley owner, I am trading him before the dude suddenly retires.

• Emmanuel Sanders (1 year, $6,000,000)

I may have a bit of a biased take on Emmanuel Sanders, but at least I can admit when I am being biased. I have not decided if I flat out don’t like Sanders at his age, or if I just love Gabriel Davis that much. Regardless, I am selling Sanders for two Tide pods and a dryer sheet if someone offers.

Miami Dolphins

• Myles Gaskin (2 years, $651,694)

The closest comparison we have to James Robinson is Myles Gaskin. Gaskin may as well be an undrafted free agent (7th round) who came out of nowhere last season to pass Jordan Howard and Matt Breida on the Dolphins’ depth chart. Gaskin had some issues with health last year but if he can correct that he will likely be the best value of all running backs in Dynasty Owner.

• DeVante Parker (3 years, $7,625,000)

I like the talent of DeVante Parker and have always been a fan of his. In fantasy, we cannot let our hearts get in the way of our heads when it comes to deciding who to keep on our rosters, especially in a rebuild. At this point in Parker’s career, he is a Sell to a contending owner.

• Will Fuller (1 year, $10,625,011)

I have never been a big believer in Will Fuller, and while it stung with the year he had last season, some will say it is because of the steroids. If Fuller staying healthy and a PED suspension are just coincidence then maybe I would consider him a Buy. Until then get rid of the guy.

• Mike Gesicki (1 year, $1,652,981)

Heading into 2020 Mike Gesicki was one of my picks to be a breakout tight end. While he did not have a horrible year, it certainly was not a breakout year either. The Dolphins don’t seem to be sold on Gesicki either, after drafting Hunter Long in the 3rd round and I would recommend getting what you can for him now.

New England Patriots

• Cam Newton (1 year, $5,100,000)

If you can find a believer in Cam Newton, you need to pull the trigger now. Every moment you let pass by is a moment closer to him becoming untradeable. The coaching staff in New England is used to having a pocket passer under center and while they no longer have Tom Brady, Mac Jones plays a similar style to what they have seen for close to the last two decades. If you have Newton just remember first round quarterbacks don’t ride the pine much anymore in the NFL.

• Damien Harris (2 years, $907,784)

Do any of you remember a time when we could count on the Patriots backfield? I think we would have to go back to the Corey Dillon days to find a spot where we all felt somewhat comfortable with what we were getting from New England. Harris is one of the hot names this off-season and just cannot be trusted in this backfield. Sell Harris to the highest bidder and thank me when your team is winning a couple of years down the road.

• James White (1 year, $2,462,500)

I am not too sure anyone is going to buy James White at this point in his career, but if you can get even a 3rd for him I would do it in a heartbeat. At 29 years old, he may still have some solid football left in the tank, but I am not taking any chances on running backs in red, white, and blue.

• Sony Michel (2 years, $2,406,674)

I can spin Sony Michel as a Buy, Sell, or Hold, but decided he is someone owners should be selling. At the moment there is quite a bit of hype that Michel will get moved to take over the Akers roll. If you can capitalize on a rumor like that you should consider it a huge win.

• Kendrick Bourne (3 years, $5,000,000)

I am not buying into either of the receiver additions for the Patriots this off-season. In 2020 with the 49ers, Bourne was nothing better than average finishing with less than 50 catches and 700 yards receiving. I am fully expecting Jakobi Meyers to be the go-to guy in New England this season, outside of the tight ends.

• Nelson Agholor (2 years, $11,000,000)

I loved Nelson Agholor at times last season and recommended him to all of you as a solid bench player every week. At the end of the day, I hate the landing spot, at least until Mac Jones is starting. I was really hoping Agholor would have resigned in Las Vegas this past off-season, but the Patriots offered more than he could turn down. Agholor catching passes from Mac Jones is an intriguing match.

• Jonnu Smith (4 years, $12,500,000)

As much as it seems I am hating on Steve Van Tassell’s Patriots, I promise I am not. I loved Jonnu Smith signing with New England…… for about 5 minutes. The second Hunter Henry signed; Smith became an instant Sell.

• Hunter Henry (3 years, $12,500,000)

As much as I trust the Patriots decision making after the run they recently had, I am still scratching my head over the fact they are paying two tight ends $12,500,000 per season. I cannot imagine a scenario where these guys don’t virtually cancel out each other’s upside. Sell before you must cut!

New York Jets

• Corey Davis (3 years, $12,500,000)

I always love the small school kids coming out of college, especially when they are highly rated like Corey Davis was. The first few years of Davis’s career he disappointed in a big way. In 2020, Davis finally had his breakout year after multiple frustrating years, much like DeVante Parker. If Davis did not get a big contract with a rookie quarterback, he may have been a Buy, but instead it is time get the draft capital for trading him.

• Jamison Crowder (1 year, $9,500,000)

Over the past few seasons with Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder has been nothing short of a target monster. Fast forward to 2021, Darnold is gone, Crowder was forced to take less money, and Gang Green has a new coaching staff. Overall, none of this is welcome news for Crowder. Oh yea, rookie Elijah Moore has done nothing but impress in camp.

• Keelan Cole (1 year, $5,500,000)

As I do for Corey Davis, I hate the landing spot for Keelan Cole. Cole quietly had a solid year in 2020 for the lowly Jaguars and I was hoping for a solid landing spot for him this off-season. I am not sure where Cole goes from here, but I am not counting on a great season in New York. If you can find a willing trade partner, get as far away from Cole in the Jets crowded receiving room as possible.

HOLD

Buffalo Bills

• Mitchell Trubisky (1 year, $2,500,000)

I am sure many of you hear Mitchell Trubisky and just giggle. I am here to tell you that Chicago was not all Trubisky’s fault and that I believe he could be a long-term starter in the right system. All of that said it has nothing to do with why I want you to hold Trubisky. I am holding him because Josh Allen likes to run and running quarterbacks tend to get hurt more often than non- running quarterbacks. If Trubisky steps in for an injured Josh Allen, you may net a future 1st depending on which owner just lost Josh Allen.

• Zack Moss (3 years, $1,153,079)

I am a believer in both “starting” running backs in the Bills offense. I know both guys struggled in 2020 for whatever reason but they can likely only go up from here. Hold, and one of those two backs will emerge as a starter and whichever it is should net great return in a future trade.

• Devin Singletary (2 years, $974,500)

Is there an echo in the room? There will be if I write about Devin Singletary. Whatever was said about Zack Moss is the same that needs to be said about Singletary.

• Dawson Knox (2 years, $880,400)

Personally, I think it is time to give up hope on Dawson Knox becoming a quality fantasy tight end. I know this seems harsh after just two years, but the eye test tells me he just does not have it. In 2020, I was expecting Knox to take a big leap forward, yet he got worse while the entire offense around him got significantly better. If you have Knox you should be looking to trade him to one of his truthers.

Miami Dolphins

• Jacoby Brissett (1 year, $5,000,000)

We are all aware of Tua Tagoviailoa’s struggles in year one. In 2020, Ryan Fitzpatrick was clearly the better option for the Dolphins and there is a real possibility we see something like this happen again in 2021. If you are rebuilding, Brissett is a valuable player to grab and stash. As I have said with other backups, Brissett will be a gold mine if he becomes the starter.

• Malcom Brown (1 year, $1,750,000)

I don’t know you will be able to get anything out of him with the consensus being so low on Malcom Brown right now, but it is worth a shot to hold onto him. If Gaskin happens to struggle or go down with injury, we could see any of these Miami running backs take over.

New England Patriots

• None

New York Jets

• Tevin Coleman (1 year, $1,100,000)

Do we really need to talk about Tevin Coleman? I honestly cannot believe there is even a tiny amount of chatter that Coleman could lead the Jets backfield in touches. If you can find someone crazy enough to trade for Coleman, do it and never look back.

Conclusion

The AFC players have now officially been placed into Buy, Sell, and Hold categories for all of you rebuilding owners out there. It is now up to you to decide what to do with that information. Here at Dynasty Owner, there will be start up drafts going on constantly until the season starts, be sure to get into a league today if you are interested.

If you are looking for other articles to enhance your Dynasty Owner skills, be sure to check out Steve Van Tassell, and Matt “The Jerk’s” articles and videos every Monday and Wednesday. If you guys have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to get ahold of me on Twitter. As always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!