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Buy, Sell, Hold: AFC South Stock Watch Edition

Buy, Sell, Hold: AFC South Stock Watch Edition

By Jay Pounds: (@JayPoundsNFL)

48 days until the season is finally here, yes, I will be the unofficial countdown man from here on out. Before saying this, I want to first wish Cam Akers a speedy recovery and I hope he can get back to the field soon. I know many Dynasty Owners are crushed by the Akers injury, but as we do with anything in life, we must move on and find a way around it. If you want to learn different ways or thoughts around things like the Akers situation, Dynasty Owner is starting to ramp back up with the Dynasty Owner livestream officially returning every Wednesday at 2 pm. If you missed this week’s livestream you are already behind…. I am kidding of course but if you want to stay up to date with everything, you will want to be around for most of the livestreams.

As you may already know we will be going over another AFC division this week with it being the AFC South’s turn to be in the spotlight. I will do this just as I have the last few weeks with each player being set into different categories named Buy, Sell, or Hold. The players in the buy category are players you can feel comfortable going out and acquiring for your team, these players tend to be young, cheap, and often unproven. The players in the hold category are players I do not suggest going out and getting, but if you already have them on your roster I would not move off them until their value is higher. All players in the sell category are players I would move on from if rostered and I would not recommend going out and trading for them. In case you may have forgotten these players will be thought of as if I were a rebuilding owner. As always if you have any comments, questions, or concerns feel free to contact me on Twitter.

BUY

Titans

  • A.J. Brown (2 years, $1,413,092)

If you can somehow buy A.J. Brown cheap I highly recommend doing so. Brown is one of the league’s premier young receivers and should be someone who produces for your team for many years to come. The addition of Julio Jones may hurt Brown some, but I am still expecting him to ball out in 2021. The only concern I have with Brown is that he is due a contract extension in two years, and it may come earlier than that. If you go out and acquire Brown make sure you plan to have cap space to keep him long term.

  • Josh Reynolds (1 year, $1,750,000)

I have Josh Reynolds as a buy for two reasons, the first being that Julio cannot play forever and the second being that Julio was banged up the majority of last season. If Julio, or A.J. Brown were to go down, Reynolds should be the next man up. Even in this scenario I would not expect much out of Reynolds as the offense would just call Derrick Henry’s number more frequently, but it could be a great steppingstone if Reynolds were to step in and perform.

  • Dez Fitzpatrick (4 years, $1,069,951)

As I do with Reynolds, I have Fitzpatrick as a buy. Anytime you are a rebuilding owner it is a great idea to hoard young talented players. While I am not extremely high on Fitzpatrick, he is in a very good, efficient offense and should be someone rebuilding owners consider. If Fitzpatrick ends up beating out Reynolds, he will get a chance to produce in the regular season.

  • Darrynton Evans (3 years, $1,140,447)

I am not positive Darrynton Evans is locked into a backup role in Tennessee, but he is by far my favorite to win the job. While I feel the Titans would turn into a pass-first team with a committee approach at the running back spot if Derrick Henry were to go down, I think Evans would see the most work in the committee. As a rebuilding owner, you can never have enough of these guys who just need a break to see big snap shares.

Texans

  • Davis Mills (4 years, $1,304,383)

I firmly believe Watson will never take another snap with the Texans’ organization. If my prediction comes true, then it is going to be up to Davis Mills or Tyrod Taylor to start during the 2021 season in Houston. If you have Mills and he winds up the starter you will be sitting on a massive trade chip if he plays well. Shots like this can end a rebuild very quickly.

  • Tyrod Taylor (1 year, $5,500,000)

As I mentioned earlier with Davis Mills, the Texans quarterback position should be wide open. I may be wrong on the Watson situation, but for such a small price tag I would take a shot 10 out of 10 times.

  • Phillip Lindsay (1 year, $3,250,000)

In 2020 Phillip Lindsay held his own after the Broncos picked up Melvin Gordon in free agency, and I expect more of the same from Lindsay in Houston. I am buying Lindsay simply because I do not see Mark Ingram, or David Johnson making it past the upcoming season with the organization. It is a very possible scenario that we see Lindsay as the lead back over the next two seasons with the Texans. Injuries do concern me but the price tag on Lindsay is extremely low right now.

  • Nico Collins (4 years, $1,217,879)

Nico Collins has been about the only source of good news coming out of the Texans’ organization this off-season. Everything I have read on Collins has been nothing short of glowing reports and people gushing over his potential. I am buying Collins but be aware of the asking price right now. We all remember Bryan Edwards last season.

  • Brevin Jordan (4 years, $958,046)

I was extremely shocked when Brevin Jordan was not selected until the 5th round of the NFL draft. I am not sure why he was passed over so many times, but he is a phenomenal talent and well worth taking a shot on. At this point there are roughly two and a half people high on Jordan, meaning he will not cost anything more than a 3rd round pick to acquire. If you are buying him make sure you plan to be patient with players at the tight end position usually taking multiple years to fully learn.

Jaguars

  • Trevor Lawrence (4 years, $9,198,372)

I think buying Trevor Lawrence is the most obvious choice in the division. Lawrence is a generational talent and fits well on any rebuilding roster. On the flip side, if your team is in dire need of assets, he may be worth trading him to help restock the shelves.

  • Gardner Minshew (2 years, $677,721)

I am buying Minshew anywhere I can and bought him recently for $2 million Dynasty Dollars. Any time you have a proven player behind a rookie you buy him plain and simple. I know Minshew is playing behind a generational talent in Lawrence, but Lawrence is still a rookie. I also see Jimmy Garoppolo and Minshew as the top trade targets if a starter were to go down.

  • Travis Etienne (4 years, $3,224,526)

Could Etienne be the secret winner after the Akers news? Judging by Twitter’s reaction a lot of people seem to think this will be reality. If the Jags do move Robinson, it’s wheels up for Etienne.

  • D.J. Chark (1 year, $1,111,807)

I have been bold in my standing on D.J. Chark going into 2021. If he stays healthy, he will have a career year. Chark should come at quite a value at this point and time, but he will not be the second he starts producing. If you are going to buy Chark, it’s worth looking into moving on him soon after when he starts playing well because of the fact he is going to get at least Kenny Golladay money this off-season.

  • Laviska Shenault (3 years, $1,924,017)

I love the future of Laviska Shenault, even though the drafting of Travis Etienne confuses me quite a bit. It seems Urban Meyer is wanting to use Etienne in the role Shenault was born to play in, but nonetheless he is too talented to keep off the field. Shenault may seem like a slight overpay to acquire now but I feel he will be more than worth it in the long run.

  • Collin Johnson (3 years, $900,538)

Does anyone remember the amazing Collin Johnson game with Mike “The Giraffe” Glennon throwing him passes? Johnson toasted Tim’s Cleveland Browns for 19.6 Dynasty Owner points and followed it up with a solid performance the following week. There are two major takeaways from what I just wrote. The first is, Johnson flashed potential in the NFL, and the second being, I can never pass up a shot on the Browns!

  • Luke Farrell (4 years, $959,505)

If I am being honest, I do not think I am going to touch the Jacksonville tight end room. If you for some reason want to, Farrell is the one to target. Keep expectations low.

Colts

  • Jacob Eason (3 years, $1,006,816)

I am buying Jacob Eason because we do not have to look far back to see the moment the guy in front of Eason was benched. Carson Wentz is the only thing standing between Eason being a backup, or Eason becoming a starting NFL quarterback with a fantastic offensive line, and a great running game. If you buy Eason now and Wentz does not regain form, trade Eason, and make him a big part of your future (draft picks). Eason is the classic buy now, sell later player for a rebuilding roster.

  • Jonathon Taylor (3 years, $1,957,287)

I am extremely high on Jonathon Taylor and at just 22 years of age, he fits into any rebuilding owner’s plans. I know there are knocks that he performed against a cupcake schedule when he went on his tear, but it was more of him finally finding his footing and the coaching staff giving him a full workload. If you can somehow get Taylor cheap, I would be all over him.

  • Michael Pittman (3 years, $2,153,212)

If Carson Wentz does regain his M.V.P. like form Michael Pittman should be the biggest beneficiary. Pittman had a disappointing rookie season but did flash some serious potential, especially against the Titans in Week 10. If Pittman can stay healthy and gel with Wentz, he should be an excellent value.

  • Paris Campbell (2 years, $1,193,984)

The injury bug has really hit Paris Campbell hard the first two years of his career, but he remains a tremendous talent regardless. The coaching staff seemed excited to get Campbell involved last season and I am looking for more of the same in 2021. Campbell should be cheap with owners skeptical he can endure the rigors of a full NFL season.

  • Kylen Granson (4 years, $1,046,592)

If you need to see how Dynasty Owner feels about Kylen Granson just go check a couple of weeks back on Twitter @Dynasty_Owner. Granson has a path to becoming a future starting tight end with the Colts and he has the skill set to do it as well. With nothing but journeymen in front of him, Granson is in a prime position to jump start a solid career.

  • Mo Alie-Cox (1 year, $3,384,000)

The tight end room is wide open right now and it is well documented that Carson Wentz has a borderline fetish with throwing to his tight ends. As a rebuilding owner, I am looking to grab anyone of the Colts trio who could be the starter. In 2020, Cox had a couple big games but faded out big time after. In the scenario you acquire him, he does become the starter, and/or has a big game, I would trade him immediately. I know I say it a lot but buy these kinds of guys low and sell them high.

  • Jack Doyle (2 years, $7,100,000)

As I mentioned with Mo Alie-Cox I am grabbing any potential starting tight end I can for the Colts. The name of rebuilding is buying low and selling high to speed up the process and this, while small, is a great example of doing so. If you can pick up Jack Doyle, or Cox for a 3rd round pick or unwanted player right now and they become a starter you can now sell them to a contender for a 2nd or a much better player than you moved originally.

HOLD

Titans

  • Anthony Firkser (1 year, $3,000,000)

I have Anthony Firkser as the Titans only hold, even though I traded him away from my team about a month back. Obviously, all of this is in a vacuum but the roster I had was rich with tight ends and decided a 2nd round draft pick was more than enough to ship Firkser out. If you have Firkser on your roster, I would hold him and see how he starts the year out. A lot of people have overlooked how well he played when Jonnu Smith was hurt.

Texans

  • Deshaun Watson (5 years, $39,000,000)

I am not sure what is going on with Deshaun Watson and before I say what I am going to say, I want to express that I really hope these allegations are not true. I cannot see Watson taking a snap before any of this is settled, and even when it is, I do not see Watson in a Texans’ uniform again. Watson has been more than adamant that he will never play for the Texans again and at this point I believe him. The fact he has all these allegations against him, and he is still trying to stay away from the Houston organization speaks volumes. The best-case scenario is things get settled through court and when they are finished, Watson will promptly be traded elsewhere.

  • Brandin Cooks (2 years, $16,200,000)

As much as I love Brandin Cooks, I cannot place him on the buy list with the uncertainty surrounding Watson. Cooks seemed primed to be a WR1 the second Will Fuller went to Miami and then the Watson situation happened. I still see Cooks being a solid fantasy player but nothing like what he could have been. I am holding Cooks until I see how the quarterback situation plays out in H-town.

  • Keke Coutee (1 year, $797,257)

While Keke Coutee has not been spectacular during his time in the NFL, he has shown he can be a productive player. In Dynasty Owner, contenders need deep rosters and Keke Coutee is the perfect example of a good end of the bench player where you will get 25% of his weekly fantasy points. He will be a low-end production player who you can plug in if needed, and he should be cheap his entire career. I do not know about you, but I love the words cheap and production together on my team. I know all of that sounded like a buy, but he needs a quarterback before I put him there.

  • Jordan Akins (1 year, $831,271)

Akins is someone I am holding onto with dear life. I am not sure why, but I have always wanted to see this kid explode, with Akins at almost 30 years old, he is past being a breakout candidate, but I will never give up hope!

Jaguars

  • James Robinson (2 years, $763,333)

I am not sure I have ever felt worse for a healthy player the entire time I have watched football than I do for James Robinson right now. The kid defied every obstacle in his way going from an undrafted free agent running back who was widely unknown, to an absolute stud with a bright future. I am not saying Robinson does not have a bright future any longer but the better numbers he puts up the bigger payday (though we love cheap at Dynasty Owner) he gets and sharing the ball with Etienne certainly does not help matters for Robinson’s financial future. The possibility of the Jags moving Robinson is still there but for now he is a hold until we see what happens. I hope he gets moved and plays well so he can secure a big payday. He has earned it!

  • Dare Ogunbowale (1 year, $850,000)

Had the Jaguars not selected a running back early in the draft, Dare Ogunbowale would be a Buy candidate for me right now. If I run this piece again next off-season, Ogunbowale will be a Buy as he is due a new deal and will be playing for a new team. In Weeks 16, and 17 last season, Ogunbowale showed he can be a capable back in the NFL.

Colts

  • Marlon Mack (1 year, $2,000,000)

As a player, Marlon Mack has never jumped out to me as a star, but he has shown he is more than capable of being a solid NFL player. My main concern with Mack is the fact he put up average numbers behind a top tier offensive line. I am holding Mack right now with the hope he gets traded somewhere like the Rams and shows out.

  • Zach Pascal (1 year, $3,384,000)

I do not know why this moment still jumps out at me, but I remember during a Dynasty Owner live stream last year where someone said Zach Pascal would be the wide receiver 1 in all of fantasy football. We look back a year later and we see why that was a bold prediction. I am holding Pascal right now as he does have solid potential to carve out a role with the Colts, boosting his trade value.

SELL

Titans

  • Julio Jones (3 years, $22,000,000)

If you have Julio Jones and you are rebuilding, right now is the time to sell. I do not know many owners who will take on that kind of salary, but people seem stoked he is with the Titans organization, me included. I by no means feel Julio is finished as a player, in fact I think he and A.J. Brown can finish in the Top 15 wide receivers this season if both stay healthy. While this scenario would raise Julio’s trade value, I see less owners being interested in that salary during the season. If you can get a 2nd for Julio, it is a win when you are rebuilding.

  • Derrick Henry (3 years, $12,500,000)

I know I say this every week, but I hate putting players like this on the Sell list. Derrick Henry has been so much fun to watch, especially when he is on your fantasy team, but when it comes to a rebuild no one is safe, not even “DeHember.” If you are rebuilding and a contender in your league has Cam Akers, pick up the phone and get a deal done. Overreaction raises trade value.

Texans

  • Randall Cobb (2 years, $9,000,000)

I really do not have a whole lot to say on Randall Cobb and do not see why anyone would be rostering him at this point. If you somehow find someone to give you $1 Dynasty Dollar for him, do it! If you are part of the 3.2% of Dynasty Owners rostering Cobb, do yourself a favor and cut ties.

  • David Johnson (1 year, $5,000,000)

If David Johnson had not reduced his salary, there would be zero chance of moving him with the situation he is in right now. The fact Johnson did re-work his deal means he may have a little bit of trade value. Personally, I am taking anything I can get for Johnson, but I would not blame you for holding him to see what happens in Houston.

  • Mark Ingram (1 year, $2,500,000)

If I am being honest, I think Mark Ingram is done in the NFL. In 2020, Ingram looked old to put it politely, and I am not expecting any type of resurgence at his age. If you find an Ingram truther who will cough up a 3rd round pick for him, I would do it in a heartbeat. Ingram has had a fantastic ride, but I feel it’s time he hangs em up.

Jaguars

  • Carlos Hyde (2 years, $2,250,000)

Carlos Hyde is just another domino in the Urban Meyer drafting Travis Etienne in the first round game. I do not see how Hyde has much trade value, if any, at this point but I have seen crazier things happen in fantasy football. If you find a crazy owner, capitalize and take them out to dinner, you will want to work with them again in the future.

  • Marvin Jones (2 years, $6,250,000)

At the moment, there is a decent amount of hype surrounding Marvin Jones playing with Trevor Lawrence. I like Jones but let’s be honest, what is a rebuilding owner going to do with a 31-year-old boom, bust receiver. Sell Marvin Jones is what I am trying to say.

Colts

  • Carson Wentz (4 years, $32,000,000)

Believe it or not there are smart people out there who think Carson Wentz is going to return to M.V.P. form under Frank Reich. I happen to kind of be one of them. I do not necessarily think Wentz will be an M.V.P. candidate, though I do think he will get back to playing very good football. If you can find someone who believes in Wentz enough to take on his salary you must do it.

  • Nyheim Hines (1 year, $796,137)

Hines had a great season in 2020, which is exactly why I am selling him. In 2020, Hines had Phillip Rivers under center who targeted running backs at an insane rate, which plays to Hines’ strengths. He also has Jonathon Taylor in front of him who I feel is only going to get better pushing Hines down the playing time pecking order further. Hines’ value will not get any higher than it is now.

  • T.Y. Hilton (1 year, $8,000,000)

At $8 million, I can see some owners willing to take a chance on T.Y. Hilton with a potential upgrade at quarterback in Carson Wentz. I do not see any reason to keep Hilton on a rebuilding roster. If you have an offer, or a willing trade partner get the deal done.

Conclusion

I just want to thank everyone for all the support you have all shown to Dynasty Owner, none of it goes unnoticed. A quick reminder the writer’s league will be forming within the next three weeks and still has a few spots left open. If you are interested in testing your GM skills against other fantasy football writers, please contact me on Twitter. We also have a new affiliate program for you guys to use. As always don’t forget to check out Matt’s articles and videos which release on Mondays and Steve’s articles and videos which release on Wednesdays. Thank you for reading and as always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

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