This content has been archived. It may no longer be relevant
Hello Dynasty Owners and welcome to a new division. Over the month of July, I will break down several players from each team in the NFC North. The NFC North has been no stranger to news this year. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. It seems like each of the four teams have taken their turn in the spotlight. Take, for example, the Chicago Bears. The Bears off-season started with speculations that Allen Robinson may or may not be signed to a long term extension. That speculation eventually turned into the idea that he would sign a franchise tag, and that is exactly what he did. His franchise tag will be worth 17.88 million dollars for a single year. We could also talk about the Detroit Lions. The Lions made one of the biggest trades of the off-season when they moved Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff. Obviously there were other parts to the trade, but for our purposes, Goff and Stafford switched teams. The Packers are currently dealing with the most covered news of the past couple of months. Of course, I’m talking about Aaron Rodgers. I don’t want to speculate on what Rodgers will ultimately decide to do, but it is worth mentioning. The Minnesota Vikings (the team we are going to highlight today) has had the least amount of off-season drama. For that reason, I am going to start this division off by talking about them. Hopefully this allows clarity for the Rodgers situation before I get to the Packers article. First, let me break down the NFC North before we get into player breakdowns…
As we all know, the Green Bay Packers finished as top dogs in the division in 2020. They finished with a stellar record of 13-3. Their only losses came to the Bucs, Vikings and Colts. Aaron Rodgers’ frustration about the team not drafting an early round weapon may have shown to be justified when the Packers lost to the Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game. The Chicago Bears squeaked into the playoffs as the seventh seed in the NFC. They amassed an 8-8 record throughout the regular season only to be beaten by the New Orleans Saints in the Wild Card round. A lack of running efficiency and second half defense made for an uncompetitive game. The Minnesota Vikings finished at 7-9 and third in the division. The Detroit Lions round out the NFC North in last place. They had a 5-11 record, and there weren’t very many bright spots in their season. Kenny Golladay played in only five games. (One of which he did not record a reception.) There is reason for optimism though. D’Andre Swift provided solid production for a rookie running back especially with the low volume he received. Swift totaled more than 870 total yards and ten touchdowns.
Contract Breakdown
Today I’m going to talk about one player from each position, break down their contracts and talk about what it means to us as Dynasty Owners. Up first, let’s talk about Kirk Cousins.
Cousins is the Vikings starting quarterback. I truly believe that he is an above average quarterback even in today’s NFL. The problem he faces is two-fold. First, he attempted the 15th most passes in the NFL in 2020. The Vikings are a low pass volume offense and Cousins dynasty value suffers because of it. His completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns all rank top ten for the 2020 season which kind of shows my point that he is an above average NFL quarterback. However, his efficiency is not enough to make up for his lack of volume. The second issue I have with Cousins is obviously his salary. He makes $33,000,000 for the next two years. This is a top level salary, and this salary could be justified for players like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Russell Wilson but not for Cousins. I’ve said it many times, and I’ve probably said it referring to Kirk. “There is no value in a top tier salary player that provides middle of the road production.” Cousins finished as QB10 in DO last season. Dynasty Owner projects a decline from that spot. He is projected to be QB16 in 2021, but to be honest, I don’t think it matters much. Kirk is a player that I don’t want to roster, and almost all of Dynasty Owners are agreeing with me. He is owned in only 0.81 percent of leagues.
I have done my fair share of talking about Dalvin Cook this year. Therefore, I’m going to talk about his handcuff. Alexander Mattison is a seldom talked about fantasy player. This is mostly due to his lack of production in his first two years, but that fact is also a little misleading. Mattison has totaled 10 plus carries in only 8 games in his career. However, in the games that he has 10 plus carries, these are his per game stats…
14.5 carries, 78.6 yards, 0.4 TDs
These stats aren’t elite, but they are solid especially for a backup running back. It goes without saying, but there is zero chance Mattison will steal the starting role. However, if Dalvin Cook becomes injured, Mattison will immediately become a Top 10 running back. He has two years left on his rookie contract worth $867,793. This makes him even more of a value if you own him.
Adam Thielen had a roller coaster season. He failed to tally 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in six of his fifteen games. He made up for that stat by posting four games with multiple touchdowns, and he scored in ten of his fifteen games. It’s no secret that Thielen (age 30) is reaching the declination point of his career. (There is actually a good chance that he is past it.) I assume this is the main reason that he is only owned in 92% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Even with a salary slightly north of 16 million dollars per year, Thielen should be rostered in every league. I don’t expect another 14 touchdown season, but even with some regression, he looks to be a top 20 overall wide receiver. I’ve said it numerous times, but I’ll say it again, “I spend my cap on expensive, late wide receivers.” Thielen is a player that fits the description. An ADP of 136.0 is too low.
The final player I want to talk about is someone I talked about at length in last week’s article. I’m not going to talk much more about him, but I just want to mention Irv Smith Jr. Smith Jr. has two more years on his rookie contract. That deal is worth $1,449,609 per year. He will be the third or fourth receiving option on a low volume passing team, but his age (22) and salary should give you some peace of mind when drafting him. Don’t expect him to catapult to a Top 5 tight end in terms of fantasy points. I do think it’s possible he jumps to become a Top 5 tight end in terms of value though.
Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk