Contract Breakdowns: AFC Conference Recap

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners, and welcome to the “final stretch.”  At the time of this article’s release, we will be 10 days away from the start of the 2021 season. The season will begin on Thursday, September 9th in a game that will pair the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the Dallas Cowboys. Like most of you reading this article, I can’t wait to get back to real NFL football.

As for today’s article, I’m going to recap some of the more important points I made in previous Contract Breakdown articles. This week I’m going to focus on the AFC and next week will be the NFC’s turn. Let’s start by talking about the AFC East first.

Contract Breakdown Recap

AFC East

In the Jets article, I did a blind player comparison with Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder. The takeaway from the comp was that Davis is an underrated dynasty player because he’s on a new team, is a late breakout player, and joins one of 2020’s worst NFL teams. Despite these issues, I project Davis to finish the season as a WR3. The early pre-season connection between Zach Wilson and Davis also gives me hope. Don’t let the 12.5 million dollar salary scare you away.

I compared Zack Moss to Ronald Jones in my Bills article.

PlayerAgePoints/GameRushYardsTDsSalary
Z. Moss237.81385925$1,153,079
R. Jones2313.72191,1179$1,767,977

(All stats are based on a full 16 game average from the 2020 season)

The main takeaway is that Moss (3 years – $1,153,079) will command a heavier workload in 2021 than he did in 2020. He also has two more years remaining on his current contract than Jones does. Odds are that Ronald Jones will outscore Moss this year, but those extra years of a cheap salary is extremely valuable. At this point in their careers, I would rather own Moss.

For the Patriots article, I compared Damien Harris to Devin Singletary.  I obviously did this prior to the news that Sony Michel was traded. While I don’t see the Michel trade making a large impact on Harris’ production, it will allow him to have more touches. The main takeaway from the comparison is that I would draft Harris over Singletary in Dynasty Owner, and nothing in the off-season has changed my mind. I would feel very confident going into the 2021 season with Harris as my third running back (top Bench running back).

The Dolphins article had a very tough comparison, and it was one that I struggled with as I was writing it. Not really much has changed for either player since publishing that article either. The comparison was Tua Tagovailoa vs Daniel Jones…

PlayerAgePoints/GamePass YardsRush YardsTDsSalary
T. Tagovailoa2317.12,90217422$7,568,859
D. Jones2415.13,36349114$6,416,014

(All stats are based on a full 16 game average from the 2020 season)

In the end, I wanted Tua due to his age, overall upside and the fact that he has a longer salary than Jones. That being said, I do project Jones to outscore Tua in the upcoming season.

AFC North

The AFC North articles started with the Pittsburgh Steelers article where I lamented about James Conner. I was pretty long-winded about how Conner came into fantasy relevance, and my feelings on him, especially in the 2018 season. Much of my breakdown centered around the idea that he would be leaving the Steelers, but I didn’t speculate much on who his new team would be. It turns out that he was signed to a one-year contract a week after the Steelers’ article was published. While I still like Conner as a player, I am concerned that he will not receive enough volume with Arizona to be an RB2. In my opinion, Chase Edmonds will be the lead back for the entire year. This is not to say that Conner will have no dynasty relevance at all.  He should be (and is) rostered in every Dynasty Owner league due to his cheap salary ($1,750,000) and injury upside. I wrote this at the end of the Steelers article in April, and I think it sums up my opinion on Conner very well…

“So, what do we do with him? We wait. I currently own Conner in my BETA league, and I am fine holding him until a new place of employment is discovered.  He will still be on a lower-end running back contract, but Dynasty Owners need to accept the fact that he will not return his 2018 value ever again.”

The main player I touched on for the Ravens article was Gus Edwards. Edwards re-signed with the Ravens after he accepted a second-round tender. That tender comes with a contract of 1 year – $3,384,000. While I don’t see Edwards taking an exceptional amount of work away from J.K. Dobbins, I did say “Expect Edwards to continue to be a thorn in the side of J.K. Dobbins Owners.” (Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the J.K. Dobbins injury.)

When I wrote the Bengals article, I mainly gave a broad overview of some of the key free agents they had coming into the 2021 off-season. These players included A.J. Green, John Ross, Samaje Perine, and Brandon Allen. The majority of the breakdown I talked about Brandon Allen and how you may be able to get some spot starts out of him at the beginning of the season due to Joe Burrow’s continued rehab. Well, after four months has passed, it looks like Burrow is on track to play Week 1 against the Vikings. Still hold onto Allen as an insurance piece, but obviously don’t count on him to make an impact this year.

Here is what I wrote about Rashard Higgins in the Browns article

“Like the majority of free agents this year, Rashard Higgins has been signed already. He re-signs with the Browns for a single-year contract. It is worth $2,377,500.  Higgins found decent success after Odell Beckham Jr. went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6. In the games that Higgins played in, he totaled 7.5 plus fantasy points in all but two games. 7.5 isn’t a fantastic performance, but more often than not, that was his floor. In fact, he had very healthy fantasy performances to the tune of 12.1, 17.0, 21.5, 14.8 and 11.6 fantasy points. Unfortunately for Higgins Owners, OBJ looks to be returning to the Browns in 2021. This will bump Rashard down to the WR 3 on the team and limit the total volume he will receive. He should be rostered in all leagues as he has shown his ability to step in for an injured superstar.”

Really nothing has changed since I wrote this opinion. OBJ and Jarvis Landry look to come into the 2021 season healthy. While I like Higgins as a player, he will be buried behind more talented players on the depth chart.

AFC South

The AFC South was one of my favorite divisions to write about because I added a trade aspect to all four article breakdowns. Trades are a big part of Dynasty Owner, but I feel like sometimes they don’t get enough attention. The added component of salary and contract length make trades very unique in this format.

In the Colts article, I quickly did a contract breakdown on Carson Wentz (4 years – $32,000,000).  Here is the summation of my thoughts…He is in a disaster of a contract (especially value-wise for Dynasty Owners). He is on a new team with a below-average receiving core. He injured his foot late in the offseason, had surgery, and has missed valuable training time with his new team. Before I go on a rant, let me be brief by saying he should probably not be rostered in DO, and I would trade him for just about anyone or any picks if you can find a league mate that wants him.

I wrote this about Anthony Firkser way back in March in my Titans article

Firkser is 26 years old and will be a restricted free agent. He will make more money in 2021, but don’t expect it to be a lot. I’ll put him right around 3 million per year for now.

Trade Advice: With Firkser being available in one-third of Dynasty Owner leagues, I would check the Free Agent Auction first. If he is available and you have an extra spot, then I would pick him up. There’s no doubt he’s worth rostering for now. I can’t advise sending a trade for him. There’s just too much uncertainty with his many possible career paths. Hold if you own, and stay away if you don’t.

Firkser re-signed with the Titans to the tune of 1 year – $3,000,000 eight days after I wrote that article. Another thing that has changed is the fact that he jumped from 66 percent rostered to almost 98 percent at the time of this writing. It looks like those that held onto him are going to have a starting tight end for very cheap. Well done.

There were six total free agents, both Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) and Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA), that I decided to speculate about in my Jaguars article. Of those six, only a single player re-signed with Jacksonville.  His name is Dare Ogunbowale.  Here is an update for where all six landed…

PlayerPrevious StatusTeam
Keelan ColeUFAJets
Chris ConleyUFATexans
Chris ThompsonUFAFree Agent
Dede WestbrookUFAVikings
Tyler EifertUFAFree Agent
Dare OgunbowaleERFAJaguars

There isn’t a whole lot to talk about here. Dare is the only player remaining, and he will be buried on the depth chart behind James Robinson and Carlos Hyde.

The final team in the AFC South is the Houston Texans. The Texans article happened to coincide with the opening of free agency so I really didn’t have much space to talk about actual Texans. The one who I did mention was Will Fuller. At the time, we knew that Fuller was leaving Houston for Miami, but we didn’t yet know that the Dolphins were going to draft Jaylen Waddle.  Regardless, Fuller will be sidelined for Week 1 due to a six-game performance-enhancing substances (PES) suspension. This suspension spans two seasons. Fuller is currently owned in 84.5 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, and he looks to have a productive season with a $10,625,011 salary.

AFC West

For the AFC West articles, I incorporated my Top 10 players for each position. The Chargers article was appropriately paired with the Quarterbacks Top 10 because Justin Herbert came in as my number one quarterback. He barely beat out Kyler Murray for the top spot. In the end, the extra year on his contract and the more than two million dollar savings per year is enough to make him the number one quarterback moving forward.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
QB1Justin Herbert953$6,644,688
QB2Kyler Murray642$8,914,504
QB3Joe Burrow24133$9,047,534

The Chiefs article highlighted the Top 10 running backs moving forward. In my initial write up, I didn’t have any Chiefs’ running backs included on this Top 10. Unfortunately, CEH slips into the Top 10 with Cam Akers’ injury as Akers was listed as RB5 back in June. With that adjustment, this is what my current Top 10 Dynasty Owner running back list looks like…

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYearsSalary
RB1Jonathan Taylor633$1,957,287
RB2Christian McCaffrey5515$16,015,875
RB3Nick Chubb1161$1,845,774
RB4Austin Ekeler2893$6,125,000
RB5Najee HarrisN/A114$3,261,862
RB6J.K. Dobbins24163$1,432,359
RB7Saquon Barkley12271$7,798,688
RB8Dalvin Cook325$12,600,000
RB9D’Andre Swift18203$2,134,728
RB10Clyde Edwards-Helaire21143$2,705,393

(Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the J.K. Dobbins injury.)

For the Broncos and Raiders article breakdown, I combined both teams into the tight end Top 10.  As you could have guessed, both teams have a tight end ranked on this list. Darren Waller still comes in as my TE1 due to his cheapish salary (at least compared to Kelce and Kittle) and his elite production. If I was drafting in a startup, I would take Waller first before any other tight end. To follow this up, I had the Broncos’ primary pass-catching tight end, Noah Fant, as my TE7.  In my opinion, there are very clear tiers between the Top 10 tight ends.  Here are the tier breaks…

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE1Darren Waller223$7,450,000
TE2Travis Kelce115$14,312,500
TE3George Kittle1935$15,000,000

This is Tier 1. I could listen to and make an argument for either of these three to be the top ranked tight end.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE4Kyle PittsN/A54$8,227,623
TE5Mark Andrews641$863,290
TE6T.J. Hockenson362$4,955,306

This is Tier 2.

RankPlayer2020 DO Finish2021 DO Proj FinishYears RemainingSalary
TE7Noah Fant882$3,147,680
TE8Irv Smith Jr.22122$1,449,609
TE9Mike Gesicki7111$1,652,981
TE10Dallas Goedert2071$1,406,068

This is Tier 3. These tight ends start to get into the “crapshoot” area. You have already missed out on the elite fantasy players, but there is a chance one or all of these guys could break into the top tier within a few years.

Thank you for reading, and look out for my video that pairs with this article. Next week I will recap my breakdowns from the NFC. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Buy, Sell and Hold: NFC East Stock Watch

By Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

At last, we have our final division to break down in the Buy, Sell, and Hold series and it happens to be what I consider the worst division in football, the NFC East. As a rebuilding owner, this is a division you should pay close attention to with all four teams likely to churn out roster spots. The final week of the pre-season is nearing which means the start of the NFL season is close to being upon us and the news is starting to become extremely important.

Before we jump into the article let’s highlight a few notable happenings around the league. The Rams acquired New England Patriots running back Sony Michel via trade, further complicating things in the Los Angeles backfield. Rams coach Sean McVay came out and said Michel is just a depth piece, but I am not buying it with the price they paid to get the former Georgia Bulldog product. The very well-liked undrafted running back, Javian Hawkins has signed a deal with the Tennessee Titans and is still worth a roster spot even behind Derrick Henry. A few players recovering from injury are on the right track to start the season and those players are Dak Prescott, Odell Beckham Jr., and Saquon Barkley. All three players are expected to contribute heavily for their teams and the fact they are all seeing action is welcoming news for their owners. Quarterback Trey Lance of the San Francisco 49ers has been alternating 1st team reps with Jimmy Garoppolo which tells me he will be the starter sooner rather than later in the Bay Area. Finally, we have rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who has struggled mightily this preseason finally turning in what reporters are calling a great week in practice. Owners need to show patience with Chase after he missed the entire 2020 NCAA football season because of Covid-19. I do not know of many players who took a year off football and did not miss a beat, especially one coming into his rookie season

In this article I will break down all Dynasty Owner relevant players from the NFC East through the perspective of a rebuilding owner. Each player will be placed into one of three separate categories called Buy, Sell, or Hold. The players in the Buy category are going to usually be younger players with massive upside and a clear path to playing time, making them a great building block for your team. The players in the Sell category are going to be older players in most cases who are on the backend of their career with a significant contract. They are also players that will not be around when it is time for your rebuilding team to compete for championships. The players in the Hold category are players buried on their team’s depth chart or players with a lot of talent who are not getting the trade value they should receive. If there are any players on the list you disagree with feel free to let me know on Twitter @JayPoundsNFL.

BUY

Washington Football Team

  • Jaret Patterson (3 years, $820,000)

Jaret Patterson is someone I have talked about more than a few times this off-season. Patterson had a storied career with the University of Buffalo where he put-up eye-popping numbers. The Football Team’s coaching staff seems to be intrigued with Patterson which is a great sign towards him making the 53-man roster and in turn an impact on your Dynasty Owner team.

  • Terry McLaurin (2 years, $961,918)

Terry McLaurin and James Robinson are my favorite values in Dynasty Owner for the 2021 season. McLaurin has a criminally low salary for the production he is going to put up with  Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. McLaurin will come with a high price tag to acquire, but he is a fantastic building block over the next two seasons.

  • Dyami Brown (4 years, $1,236,000)

Looking at Washington’s depth chart, it is easy to see Dyami Brown seeing the field often throughout his rookie season. The only competition Brown faces at this point are names like Cam Sims and Adam Humphries. I recommend buying Brown before the season starts as he should be a lock to be the number 3 guy in Washington.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Jalen Hurts (3 years, $1,506,292)

The fantasy community has mixed feelings on the long-term outlook of Jalen Hurts. Hurts did well in terms of fantasy scoring last season but unfortunately that does not count towards a player’s future in the NFL. If Hurts is able to get his completion percentage to at least the low 60s the questions should go away. If the Hurts owner in your league is a little low in how they value him then you should be doing what is needed to get a deal done.

  • Kenneth Gainwell (4 years, $953,882)

I am not expecting Kenneth Gainwell to become a full-time starter in the NFL simply because of his small frame. While he may not turn into every down starter, he will bring production to your fantasy lineup the same ways Darren Sproles used too. If Gainwell can beat out Boston Scott, he will have a solid rookie campaign.

  • DeVonta Smith (4 years, $5,035,348)

The slim reaper DeVonta Smith is my second favorite receiving prospect of the 2021 class behind Ja’Marr Chase. Smith started slowly because of an injury but has looked impressive as of late. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni compared Smith to Keenan Allen, and I am expecting similar numbers sooner rather than later.

  • Jalen Reagor (3 years, $3,317,669)

The Eagles drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round of the NFL draft and will give him multiple opportunities to succeed in this offense. The addition of DeVonta Smith is not great news but it will help Reagor see less double coverage when he is on the field. I am buying Reagor because he will come cheap and will be on the field a ton.

  • Quez Watkins (3 years, $866,166)

Quez Watkins is one of the more popular sleeper names in the fantasy community right now. I mention this because I want to remind you not to overpay because people are talking about him. Watkins is a Buy but is still considered a lottery ticket at this point.

  • Dallas Goedert (1 year, $1,406,068)

I feel that right now Dallas Goedert is at the lowest value he will be in many years. The Eagles confused everyone when they decided to keep Zach Ertz around. Ertz remaining an Eagle hurts Goedert but is not something that should stop a rebuilding owner from buying him. Ertz will be gone soon, so buy Goedert before it happens.

New York Giants

  • Darius Slayton (2 years, $688,497)

Darius Slayton was a hot name heading into last season and he let fantasy owners down. The Giants offense as a whole was a mess last season and Slayton surely is not to blame. It seems Slayton is buried on the Giants depth chart, but I believe he has the talent to beat everyone out, aside from Kenny Golladay. I recommend buying Slayton before anything happens that causes his value to rise.

  • John Ross (1 year, $2,250,000)

I remember staying up late just to watch John Ross burn Pac 12 defenses during his time at the University of Washington. Ross was a Top 10 pick who flamed out for the Cincinnati Bengals which means he is still extremely talented. If the Giants can unlock Ross’s potential and he can stay healthy, he will become a great piece to play with during your rebuild.

  • Kadarius Toney (4 years, $3,429,877)

I get most of the hate around Kadarius Toney and I do feel he will be a bust, but he still has 1st round draft capital, and is still extremely cheap to acquire. The Giants will give Toney every chance under the sun to show why they took him so early in the draft and that makes him a player rebuilding owners should be high on. When rebuilding you can never have enough cheap guys with massive potential. The first-round capital also makes him much more likely to hit than the lottery tickets I am always talking about.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Tony Pollard (2 years, $796,945)

As I mentioned with Javonte Williams a few weeks back, Tony Pollard is a perfect running back to roster during a rebuild. Pollard sees enough work each week that you know the talent is there and you can feel safe holding him knowing he will be a starter in this league soon. Pollard has two years left on his current deal which gives you time to complete your rebuild before he is a full-time starter.

  • CeeDee Lamb (3 years, $3,502,503)

I was close to making CeeDee Lamb a Sell because of how high he is being valued in the community right now, but his salary keeps him in the Buy category. Lamb is a fantastic talent who will be one of the premier receivers in the league for many years. If you can afford it, buy Lamb. If you have Lamb and get blown away by an offer, it is worth thinking about trading him.

  • Michael Gallup (1 year, $880,995)

I love the thought of buying Michael Gallup on a rebuilding roster. Gallup will come cheap because of the presence of Amari Cooper and Lamb and has already shown he can be an exceptionally good NFL wide receiver with a 1,000-yard season already under his belt. The second Cooper, or Lamb gets hurt or if Gallup gets traded from Dallas, the price to acquire him will skyrocket.

  • Blake Jarwin (3 years, $5,500,000)

Blake Jarwin should come cheap after coming off a season ending injury in 2020. I would shoot your shot on Jarwin before the season starts as his value should only increase with playing time. The only scenario where his value decreases involve Dalton Schultz beating him out for the starting job.

SELL

Washington Football Team

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (1 year, $10,000,000)

Meet the guy who thinks his beard is better than mine (it is not) – Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzmagic seems to be a fan favorite regardless of where he plays, and the beard has a lot to do with it. Sell Fitzmagic before he shaves his beard and forgets how to play football.

  • Antonio Gibson (3 years, $1,233,159)

Antonio Gibson is one of my favorite young players and one I own on my personal rebuilding team. I know you are wondering why I bought him and am telling you to sell him, and it is because I acquired him cheap before he blew up in Washington last season. Gibson has climbed all the way to a first round draft pick here on Dynasty Owner and will net too much in a trade not to move on from him as a rebuilding owner.

  • J.D. McKissic (1 year, $1,635,000)

McKissic had a fantastic season in 2020, but I am expecting him to take more of a backseat to Antonio Gibson in 2021. I recommend moving on from him before the season starts. If you like to gamble, he may be worth a Hold in case an injury happens to occur in Washington.

  • Logan Thomas (1 year, $3,072,500)

Tim Tebow tried to follow in Logan Thomas’s footsteps and failed miserably. Thomas is a former quarterback turned tight end who played very well in 2020. I am not so sure he can keep this up long enough to help your roster out when it comes time to win, which means you must get what you can out of him now via trade.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Miles Sanders (2 years, $1,337,544)

The Eagles drafting Kenneth Gainwell this off-season does not exactly put my mind at ease when thinking about Sanders. I am a huge Sanders guy and want to see him do well for a long time, but Philly may not be the place for him. Sanders is still a lock for the starting job with the Eagles, but I am moving him before it turns to more of a committee approach. Let us not forget Jalen Hurts will cut into his carries quite a bit as well.

  • Jordan Howard (1 year, $990,000)

If you can sell Jordan Howard, I have a job opportunity for you. It seems Howard is going to make the Eagles roster but should not make any of your rebuilding rosters. Sell Howard for one Dynasty Dollar if needed.

New York Giants

  • Saquon Barkley (1 year, $7,798,688)

Saquon Barkley is a premier talent at the running back position, but he is a lose-lose for rebuilding owners. If Barkley plays this season and has a great year, he will get a contract north of the $12 million that Aaron Jones got this past off-season and will hurt your cap on top of being a running back on his second deal. If Barkley does not play well or gets hurt, he will lose a significant amount of his trade value and will be on the downside of his career. After thinking about these two situations, Barkley became an easy sell for me during a rebuild.

  • Kenny Golladay (4 years, $18,000,000)

Kenny Golladay is one of the most talented receivers in all of football, yet I could not sell him for anything more than a middle of the road 2nd round pick this past offseason (turned into Rashod Bateman). At this point there is so much doubt around Golladay with the Giants and him being hurt all 2020 that I am holding him until he starts playing like the Golladay of 2019.

  • Sterling Shepard (3 years, $10,250,000)

Sterling Shepard will be tough to trade at his contract on top of the addition of Kenny Golladay. If you are trying to move Shepard, be sure to mention how consistent he is when he is on the field. Do not be surprised if you are unable to trade him.

  • Evan Engram (1 year, $6,013,000)

Evan Engram is still an extremely talented football player who just needs to find a way to stay healthy. The tight end position is just as ugly as the running back position this season so capitalize on Engram while you can. This could also be Engram’s last season as a starter so get what you can out of him.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Dak Prescott (4 years, $40,000,000)

If you can trade this contract, please message me your ways. At $40 million, it will be impossible to trade Prescott but with him due another raise in four years I am moving on from him if I am just starting a rebuild.

  • Amari Cooper (4 years, $20,000,000)

Amari Cooper will be another player who is extremely tough to trade. Cooper is built more for a contending roster, so I suggest getting what you can and moving on from his massive salary.

HOLD

Washington Football Team

  • Taylor Heinicke (2 years, $2,375,000)

As much as I love Ryan Fitzpatrick, he has had an up and down career up to this point. Taylor Heinicke is a must Hold if you are already his owner as there is a solid chance, he starts at some point this season. If Heinicke does end up starting, trade him immediately to get the best value possible.

  • Adam Humphries (1 year, $1,190,000)

I initially had Humphries as a Sell, but I feel putting him in the Hold category is more appropriate. Washington brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick who has been known to put up solid passing numbers when given a chance to start in his career. If Humphries develops a connection with Fitzpatrick, he will be much more valuable than he currently is.

  • Curtis Samuel (3 years, $11,500,000)

Curtis Samuel came on in a big way last season in Carolina. Had Samuel stayed in Carolina, he would be a Sell with the amount of talent they have on offense. With Washington, Samuel should be a featured guy. I am holding Curtis Samuel until we see him play for his new team.

  • Cam Sims (1 year, $2,133,000)

Cam Sims was a great Buy and stash last season, and he is a solid Hold. Sims may be buried on the Washington depth chart, but he still has talent to play in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Joe Flacco (1 year, $3,500,000

Jalen Hurts has quite a bit of doubt surrounding him right now and it makes Flacco a good Hold. If Hurts does not play well, Flacco will become an excellent trade chip for rebuilding owners. (Editor’s Note: Jay wrote this article prior to the trade of Gardner Minshew to the Eagles).

  • Boston Scott (1 year, $920,000)

With the Eagles drafting Kenneth Gainwell, it hurts the outlook of Boston Scott quite a bit. I am holding onto him to see how the Eagles utilize both Scott and Gainwell. If Scott is clearly ahead of Gainwell to start, you need to move on from him quickly.

  • Greg Ward (1 year, $850,000)

Philadelphia loves Greg Ward and wants to give him every chance in the world to succeed. If you have Ward, I suggest holding him until we see if he gets a starting job in the Eagles’ offense.

  • Travis Fulgham (1 year, $762,500)

Travis Fulgham is a bigger one hit wonder than the Hanson brothers at this point in his career. I did love the way Fulgham dominated a few games stretch against quality opponents in 2020 but he was benched shortly after. As thin as the Eagles are at receiver, Fulgham will get his chance.

  • Zach Ertz (1 year, $8,500,000)

Just two years ago, Zach Ertz was one of the premier tight ends in the NFL. As talented as Ertz is he is worth a Hold on your rebuilding roster. If he is traded and has a solid stretch, he will bring back great trade value.

New York Giants

  • Devontae Booker (2 years, $2,750,000)

Devontae Booker is an excellent stash as a handcuff to oft-injured Saquon Barkley. Barkley has not exactly been durable throughout his career and if he happens to go down again you will be sitting on an excellent trade chip in Booker.

  • Daniel Jones (2 years, $6,416,014)

I happen to be too high on Daniel Jones and will never give up on him. I am holding Jones to see if the addition of Golladay improves his game at all. Either way he will still net excellent value in a trade because of his rookie contract.

  • Kaden Smith (2 years, $680,002)

Kaden Smith is no more than a lottery ticket but a good lottery ticket, nonetheless. Evan Engram has one year left on his deal and it is no lock that they bring him back on another contract. Kaden Smith could be the Giants starting tight end come 2021.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Ezekiel Elliott (6 years, $15,000,000)

Ezekiel Elliott is still one of the best backs in all of football. Zeke is coming off a rough year and the overall value on him is down. I am holding Zeke until he gets back to the Zeke we all know, and his contract becomes tradeable again.

  • Noah Brown (1 year, $1,127,500)

The next two guys are buried behind extremely talented guys named CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Amari Cooper. Noah Brown has shown flashes on the field and that makes him a great stash for rebuilding owners.

  • Cedrick Wilson (1 year, $2,183,000)

As I just mentioned with Noah Brown, Cedrick Wilson has shown excellent flashes on an NFL field. Hold Cedrick Wilson until the depth chart clears up and we see what he can do.

Conclusion

Well Dynasty Owners, there you have it for the 2021 Buy, Sell, and Hold series. I hope everyone can use all this information heading into the season and capitalize on it by making moves to set your rebuilding roster up for the future. Always remember when rebuilding to make moves for the sake of tomorrow instead of today. I hope everyone enjoyed this series as much as I did and as always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Draft This Guy, Not That Guy

By Steven Van Tassell

Originally, I had planned to write an entire article comparing a high-salary player (Player A) who is being drafted ahead of another player (Player B) with a similar profile, history and projections, but a far lower salary. It was going to be a demonstration of how Dynasty Owner is different and takes a different mentality to draft well. During the weekly livestream where Tim Peffer and I have been breaking down a single league draft, there have been many instances where a Dynasty Owner drafted someone when they could have had a more affordable, comparable player instead. If you check out any of the livestreams from the past couple of weeks, you can hear plenty of them.

However, a dive into the 2021 ADPs in the Mock Draft Lobby didn’t yield as many of these obvious situations as I thought it would. In an individual draft, somebody is going to overreach for a player here and there, but across all Dynasty Owner leagues, there don’t appear to be too many instances of this occurring.

For example, the Top 5 WRs in terms of ADP are DK Metcalf (15.2), Justin Jefferson (17.2), A.J. Brown (21.8), Calvin Ridley (24.8) and CeeDee Lamb (26.0). All five are still on their rookie salary contract and tremendous values in 2021. Metcalf and Brown have salaries under $1.5 million for the next two seasons, while Lamb is the most expensive at a little over $3.5 million. The sixth WR being taken on average is Tyreek Hill (ADP 26.9), but he finished 2020 as WR2 and is projected to finish 2021 as WR2. He missed four games in 2019 and still finished as WR30 for the season. I’m not going to say that it’s a bad pick to take the second best WR as the sixth WR off the board, even though his salary is $18 million per season. Some Dynasty Owners might prefer Stefon Diggs ($14.4 million, ADP 30.6) or Davante Adams ($14.5 million, ADP 33.0) over Hill and save a couple of million dollars in salary, but taking Hill instead isn’t a terrible decision. After all, every Dynasty Owner gets $127.75 million in salary cap and there’s no bonus points for spending the least amount.

With all of this in mind, let’s dive into two different situations in which Dynasty Owners are drafting a higher salary player over a comparable player with a much lower salary. We’ll look at the initial player decision and then see how the decision can drive a team’s ability to fill out its roster in the later rounds of their Dynasty Owner startup draft.

All 2021 projections come from Rotowire and are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

All 2021 Dynasty Owner ADP and fantasy points projections were accurate as of the morning of August 26th.

First Tight End Off the Board

Imagine this scenario. Your Dynasty Owner draft has started. A lot of the young affordable RBs have already been scooped up along with a few rookie salary QBs and WRs. It’s getting to the end of the second round. Nobody has gone for it and drafted the first TE, so you’re thinking about doing it, putting a little blue (for TE) on the board that’s already littered with a lot of green (RB), red (QB) and purple (WR).

In a “regular” dynasty league with a PPR format, it’s an easy call. You pick Travis Kelce since you’re shocked he has lasted this long (his ADP is in the 8-10 range depending on the source in PPR leagues) and move on. After all, he’s been TE1 in Dynasty Owner the past two years as well as in the pre-Dynasty Owner era for several years depending on your league’s scoring system. However, it’s different in Dynasty Owner. As Lee Corso would say “Not so fast my friend!”

Adding in salaries and contracts as Dynasty Owner does, makes it a harder decision. In fact, Raiders TE Darren Waller could be the better choice in Dynasty Owner for those of you drafting your startup team this year. Many Dynasty Owners disagree as Waller’s ADP is higher than Kelce (29.3 for Kelce versus 33.3 for Waller). I’m here to tell you that you should draft Waller over Kelce and be confident that you made the correct pick. Here’s why:

First, the two TEs are predicted to have roughly the same number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021, but because of his lower salary ($7.45 million for Waller versus $14.3 million for Kelce, Waller is a much better value.

PlayerADP2021 SalaryYears Left on Contract2021 Projections2021 DD/PT
Travis Kelce29.3$14,312,5005274.0$52,235
Darren Waller33.3$7,450,0003265.5$28,060

Second, Waller isn’t that far behind Kelce in past performance. If you don’t believe in projections and prefer to look at past performance, then it’s advantage Kelce, but not by as much as you would think.

PlayerAge2020 Ranking2020 Points2020 Points per Game
Travis Kelce31TE1314.821.0
Darren Waller28TE2282.617.7
PlayerAge2019 Ranking2019 Points2019 Points per Game
Travis Kelce31TE1253.315.8
Darren Waller28TE4220.113.8

Just looking at how Kelce and Waller have performed over the past two seasons above, we see that Kelce has been better, but just 3.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game better in 2020 and 2.0 points per game better in 2019. In terms of durability, it’s even as both are always on the field. Waller has played in all 16 games in each of the past two seasons with Kelce only sitting out Week 17 in 2020.

Both have also been absolutely amazing in the Dynasty Owner playoffs in each of the past two seasons, averaging well over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game.

Player2020 Playoff Points (per Game)2019 Playoff Points (per Game)*
Travis Kelce73.2 (24.4)52.0 (26.0)
Darren Waller86.5 (28.8)(22.3)

* The Dynasty Owner playoffs were only two weeks long in 2019.

In fact, Waller has more points in the Dynasty Owner playoffs than Kelce does (131.1 for Waller versus 125.2 for Kelce) and therefore a better average (26.2 versus 25.0).

Overall, at this point, the advantage is still in Kelce’s favor, but Waller isn’t far behind, which is why their 2021 ADPs are so close.

Now, let’s look at this in a different way – the way you should as a Dynasty Owner. Waller is projected to score almost as many points in 2021 as Kelce, but will cost his Dynasty Owners nearly $7 million less in salary for at least the next three years. Here are a few players who you could very likely add to your Dynasty Owner roster in the latter rounds of the draft with the difference in salary between the two ($6,862,500).

PlayerPositionADP2021 Salary2021 Projections2021 Rank
Kenyan DrakeRB124.7$5,500,000148.0RB39
Marvin JonesWR158.1$6,250,000204.8WR48
Evan EngramTE177.4$6,013,000147.8TE21
Gerald EverettTE178.8$6,000,000145.3TE23
O.J. HowardTE232.2$6,013,000140.5TE27

Both Drake and Jones would look pretty good as a RB3/RB4 or WR4/WR5 on your Dynasty Owner roster. If you don’t spend your savings on one of them, you can always grab your Bench TE, such as Evan Engram or Gerald Everett around Round 15. O.J. Howard should be on the board still if you wait a few more rounds.

In contrast, the best TE who Dynasty Owners can likely draft to back up Kelce and still be in a similar salary cap position as someone who took Waller and Evan Engram ($13,463,000 combined salary) are the following guys:

PlayerPositionADP2021 Salary2021 Projections2021 Rank
Christopher HerndonTE204.3$792,841113.0TE31
Dalton SchultzTE241.8$728,090102.0TE35
Jordan AkinsTE257.6$831,27186.1TE40

By all means, those three TEs should be on Dynasty Owner rosters at their current salaries. It’s just that you probably shouldn’t be relying on them as your week-to-week Bench TE and bye week replacement.

The lowest cost TE tandem in this scenario would be Kelce and Dalton Schultz whose salaries combined are $15,040,590, or $1,577,590 more than Waller and Engram. In addition to being slightly less in salary, the Waller-Engram combination is actually projected to score your team slightly more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Starting TE2021 PointsBench TE2021 Points25% of BenchTotal TE Points
Travis Kelce274.0Dalton Schultz102.025.5299.5
Darren Waller265.5Evan Engram147.836.9302.4

The Total TE points column is not entirely accurate as it uses all of the Starting TE points plus 25% from the Bench TE. That may not happen, but it gives us a good sense that the Waller-Engram combination is equal to, or maybe even slightly better than the Kelce-Schultz combination. Plus, by drafting Waller then Engram, your Dynasty Owner team will have more salary cap space to grab another quality player later on in the draft.

The team with Waller and Engram could add either one of the following rookie WRs after those choices, typically in Round 17 or 18, and still be spending less than the team with Kelce and Schultz.

PlayerTeamPositionADP2021 Salary2021 Projections
D’Wayne EskridgeSEAWR214.3$1,488,376140.5
Tutu AtwellLARWR217.4$1,477,175128.5

Both Eskridge and Atwell were taken back-to-back near the end of the second round in the 2021 NFL draft with picks #56 and #57 overall. Both DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown were taken in the latter stages of the 2019 NFL draft (Brown – #51 and Metcalf – #64). Both of them have been great so far in their NFL career. In fairness, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside was also drafted at a similar point in 2019 (#57 overall pick), so things don’t always work out.

Eskridge is projected to have a dozen more fantasy points in 2021 than Atwell and has fewer WRs likely playing in front of him (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) than Atwell does (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson, Van Jefferson). For those reasons, let’s say you draft Eskridge to go along with Waller and Engram.

In the end, by drafting Waller over Kelce, a Dynasty Owner could have the following players on their team for under $15 million:

PlayerTeamPositionADP2021 Salary2021 Projections
Darren WallerLVTE33.3$7,450,000265.5
Evan EngramNYGTE177.4$6,013,000147.8
D’Wayne EskridgeSEAWR214.3$1,488,376140.5
TOTAL   $14,951,376 

In contrast, drafting Kelce plus the lowest cost, but still productive late round TE would yield the following players for just a bit over $15 million.

PlayerTeamPositionADP2021 Salary2021 Projections
Travis KelceKCTE29.3$14,312,500274.0
Dalton SchultzDALTE241.8$728,090102.0
TOTAL   $15,040,590 

For my roughly $15 million, I’d prefer to have the Waller-Engram-Eskridge trio as opposed to Kelce and Schultz. The ability to draft a better backup TE and a rookie WR with potential for around the same amount in salary outweighs the slight advantage gotten by taking Kelce over Waller.

That’s the difference between drafting in Dynasty Owner using salaries and contracts versus “regular” dynasty fantasy football and why I think Dynasty Owners are making a mistake in drafting Kelce before Waller in 2021 Dynasty Owner startup drafts.

Time to Draft a Veteran Bench WR

Here’s another example of a higher-salary player being taken at roughly the same time as a lower-salary, but pretty much equally productive player. It’s not as big of a decision as deciding between Travis Kelce or Darren Waller as your second or third round draft pick, but let’s be honest, depth is important in the NFL as well as Dynasty Owner.

Your draft is in progress and it’s Round 13. The Starting lineup for your Dynasty Owner team should be filled by now (probably not kicker, it’s still too early to draft a kicker, but every other position). It’s time to get some guys for your Bench. Remember, 25% of the points scored by players on your Bench will go towards your final score. Countless Dynasty Owner games will be won and lost on the basis of Bench points, so it’s important to have a strong Bench. Let’s say you want a WR at this point, here are a couple of likely available options.

PlayerADP2021 Salary2021 Projections2021 DD/PTProjected 2021 Rank
Corey Davis169.3$12,500,000203.9$61,305WR50
Davante Parker170.6$7,625,000203.7$37,432WR52

Davis and Parker are equal in terms of 2021 projected production. Both of them also have 3 years remaining on their contracts and are pretty close in age (Parker is two years older). Davis scored 1.8 more points per game in 2020 than did.

PlayerAge2020 Ranking2020 Points2020 Points per Game
Corey Davis26WR30190.413.6
Davante Parker28WR40165.311.8

However, it was a completely different story in 2019 as Parker was twice as good as Davis and finished the season as the WR11 overall in Dynasty Owner. He was likely the top WR on plenty of Dynasty Owner teams.

PlayerAge2019 Ranking2019 Points2019 Points per Game
Corey Davis26WR64114.17.6
Davante Parker28WR11246.215.4

I understand that Davis is two years younger than Parker, was better last season and has less competition at WR. However, even factoring all that in, Parker is projected to produce similar numbers in the upcoming season.

If you disagree with the 2021 projections and think Davis will outproduce Parker, then look at how much salary cap room you can save by taking Parker instead. It’s $4.875 million in savings. That nearly $5 million savings is a great reason on its own to take Parker over Davis because you can also double down on veteran WRs and find one on a one-year contract even later on in the draft to fill out your Practice Squad and maybe use from time to time as a Bench option. Here are a few likely to be available later on who can be your sixth WR.

PlayerADP2021 Salary2021 Projections2021 DD/PTProjected 2021 Rank
John Brown205.1$3,750,000164.8$22,755WR70
Tyrell Williams223.3$4,000,000162.7$24,585WR79
Sammy Watkins232.5$5,000,000159.7$31,309WR84

By taking Parker and then one of these guys, your Dynasty Owner team has two veteran WRs who might help your Dynasty Owner team versus relying strictly on Corey Davis to produce on his own like he did in 2020. For me, I’d prefer Parker and either one of these three guys. As a bonus, taking either Brown or Williams with Parker means that you’ll have spent less in salary than you would have on Davis alone.

Conclusion

Overall roster construction is very important in Dynasty Owner and a good reason to pick one player over another in this format. The decision to choose a more expensive, but slightly better player over a lower salary player in the early rounds of your Dynasty Owner draft (or even in the middle rounds) could have major ramifications as you as you fill out your roster. Every time you choose the player with the higher salary, you are reducing the number of players you can potentially draft later on because of the Dynasty Owner salary cap.

Don’t be the Dynasty Owner who has to fill out the end of his Bench with the most inexpensive free agents available because they are the only players you can afford to have on your roster. That’s the only reason why Tanner Lee (QB – Free Agent) and his $480,000 salary is on 8.5% of rosters in Dynasty Owner. Taylor Bertolet (K – Free Agent) and his $495,000 salary are on even more rosters at 11.3%. Neither one of them is even close to make a NFL roster, or has even been seen in a NFL training camp this year.

What does everyone think of this? Agree with me and take Waller, or go with the consensus up to this point and draft Kelce. What about the choice between Corey Davis and Davante Parker? Do you prefer one of those AFC East WRs over the other? Let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33) or in the comments section on YouTube.

Hopefully all Dynasty Owners found this article helpful in getting ready for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. Dynasty Owner has plenty of other great content to help you draft your dynasty. We can provide guidance as you get prepared for your startup draft, as well as help tweak your roster after your draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team are (usually) being released on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Mondays, while Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Fridays. All of the articles will be released at 1 PM (Eastern) with videos and podcast released at 3 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful, or at least interesting, for everyone who is getting ready to draft their first Dynasty Owner team or even people who have played Dynasty Owner in the past. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Contract Breakdown: Washington Football Team

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners. Welcome to our final Contract Breakdown article of the year. We started all the way back in the first week of January with the Arizona Cardinals. It just so happens that we started with the first NFL team alphabetically and are ending with the last NFL team alphabetically. Since the first week of January, I have done 31 contract breakdown articles. Today is the final one. We will talk about a few free agents that Washington had coming into the off-season. In addition, I will break down a single Football Team player.

Free Agents

Washington had three notable free agents that I want to talk about today. As I always say, notable is defined as a player that I deem able to be reasonably rostered in Dynasty Owner. (Or, in Jeremy Sprinkle’s case, it’s a player that was previously rosterable, but is likely no longer). They are…

  • Lamar Miller
  • Kyle Allen
  • Jeremy Sprinkle

Lamar Miller is up first. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that I refer to Miller as a journeyman running back. Miller has been with five NFL teams in his 10 seasons. The list of teams include Miami, Houston, New England, Chicago and Washington. Most notably, Miller missed the entire 2019 season with a torn ACL. He tore it during a pre-season game, so he did not play a snap that year. Additionally, Miller signed with the Patriots in 2020 where he did not play in any game and was released less than a month later. Miller agreed to a single year deal with the Football Team right after free agency opened way back in March. The contract was 1 year – $1,212,500. In reality, there is not much to break down here. Lamar was released by Washington eight days ago. This move is unfortunate for Miller, but it is one that could have been expected. He is currently 30 years old and hasn’t seen a regular season rushing attempt since before his ACL tear. Miller is rostered in 8.5 percent of leagues, but it shouldn’t even be that high in my opinion. Even if he does sign with a team prior to Week 1, it will be a depth addition with no clear path to dynasty relevance. This is tough to see from anyone, but especially for a running back who averaged 936 rushing yards per season for the six seasons prior to his ACL tear.

Kyle Allen is next. Allen had a tough end to his 2020 season after he dislocated his left ankle against the Giants. He was in the middle of a decent stretch after taking over the starting job from Dwayne Haskins. Allen put together back to back 20+ fantasy point weeks prior to his season ending injury. Allen was an exclusive rights free agent coming into the 2021 offseason, and Washington decided to offer him a tender. Allen signed the tender which puts him with Washington for at least one more year. The contract is 1 year – $850,000. This doesn’t mean that he will be a relevant fantasy option in 2021 though. Ryan Fitzpatrick was also signed by Washington in the offseason. Fitzpatrick is the better, smarter and more seasoned quarterback so there is little doubt in my mind that he will be the starter for the majority of the season. Adding to the complexity is the fact that Taylor Heinicke is in all likelihood the backup quarterback for the Football Team. This is a long winded way of saying that I don’t expect Allen to see much playing time (if any) unless there are a couple of quarterback injuries. Allen is owned in 19 percent of leagues (which I think is fair), but it’s only because he is on a cheap salary. I would roster him, but not count on any fantasy points for 2021.

The final free agent I want to discuss is Jeremy Sprinkle. Sprinkle exits a crowded tight end committee in Washington to join an even more crowded committee in Dallas. Sprinkle signed a 1 year – $1,127,500 contract with the Cowboys. Sprinkle will compete against Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz for regular season playing time. I would argue that both Jarwin and Schultz are better tight ends. They also have the additional head start of being on the team longer. There was a decent amount of hope for Sprinkle coming out of college, but unfortunately he has only put together a max of 26 receptions in any season. I see no reason why this season would be any different than that. Jarwin and Schultz will carry the bulk of the tight end routes, leaving little volume, if any, for Sprinkle. At zero percent ownership, all Dynasty Owners seem to agree.

Contract Breakdown

We are going to look at Antonio Gibson today. After a standout season in 2020, Gibson is projected to be the RB12 of the 2021 season. I think this a pretty fair landing spot for him although I think it may be a little too low.  Obviously time will tell, but he did finish as RB13 in 2020 with little volume.  In fact, he finished as RB13 despite missing nearly three games and having five games of 10 or fewer rushes. These five games do not include the times missed due to injury. There is almost no way Gibson’s volume won’t increase this season. Yes, J.D. McKissic is still in town, and he will garner touches (especially receptions), but Gibson is clearly the better and more talented running back. In addition, he has youth on his side. Let’s see how Gibson compares to similar value running backs…

 Salary2021 Projected FPs2021 DD/FP
Myles Gaskin$651,694197.9$3,293
Chase Edmonds$728,090197.0$3,696
David Montgomery$1,003,845266.0$3,774
James Robinson$763,333198.9$3,838
Antonio Gibson$1,233,159277.9$4,437

So, what are we thinking after seeing this comparison? If you haven’t guessed already, these are the five running backs that are projected to lead all DO running backs in terms of Dynasty Dollar/Fantasy Point (DD/PT. Essentially, they are projected to be the five most efficient running backs in 2021. We have a good inclination that none of these five will be the RB1, and certainly they all won’t be Top 12 running backs, but they will all be a value compared to higher salary running backs.

Let me ask you this question…if you were told that one of these players will finish the season as the number one running back, who would you think it would be? If you ask me, there’s really only two running backs that have the ability. They are David Montgomery and Antonio Gibson.  In the end, Gibson would be my first pick. I like Monty this year, but I don’t feel like he will have enough receptions to have a chance at the RB1.  So, when we talk about Gibson, we are talking about a projected Top 5 value, and he has the ability to be a Top 5 running back in terms of total fantasy points? That is starting to sound like a recipe for a rock solid league winner. That is what I think of Gibson.

Even if you think that a Top 5 running back finish is out of the question for Gibson, you have to admit that Top 10 is reasonable. After all, he did finish as RB13 last year with low volume. It also becomes clearer when you compare Gibson’s team dynamic to the other four running backs on this list. Edmonds and Robinson are on committees, and they may not be the best running backs on their own teams. That is scary and just makes for a situation that is overall more unknown. Gaskin is the best running back on his team, and he should be the lead/workhorse back, but the Dolphins showed that they liked to play the “hot hand” last season.  Monty is the workhorse back and he will command the lion’s share of the touches, but he has always been a low volume receiving back. Does that change this year? I hope so, but it is far from certain. That leaves Gibson. Gibson isn’t on the best team, he doesn’t have the best offense or offensive line, but he is the most talented and athletic running back on this list. He will receive the majority of the carries and running back receptions for the Football Team. He is a player that I would love to own, and one that I project to be a 2021 league winner. Draft or trade for him sooner than later as his ADP is currently 14.5.

Thank you for reading, and look out for my video that pairs with this article. Over my next two articles, I will highlight some of the more important breakdown points that I wrote about during the 32 week period. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe. TheJerk

Buy, Sell, and Hold – NFC South Stock Watch

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

As we continue to inch closer to the NFL season now is the time rebuilding owners need to be on top of every pre-season performance. If you missed some of the action from Week 1, no worries we have you covered here at Dynasty Owner. In Week 1 we saw all five of the 1st round quarterbacks see their first NFL action and all looked good stepping on to the field for their first time as a pro. Trevor Lawrence went head-to-head with the Cleveland Browns and looked solid after a slow start. Lawrence went 6-9 for 71 yards, with no touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Lawrence did get sacked twice and had a fumble, but I expect those things to lessen as he gets more experience. I know it is just one week, but Lawrence looks to be as advertised. Trey Lance had an up and down day after throwing for 5-14 for 128 yards, and a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lance did have three drops from his receivers, but he was sacked four times and nearly threw two interceptions but capped off his day with an 80-yard bomb for a touchdown. Justin Fields started off slow in his debut but really turned thing on after halftime, finishing the day 14-20, for 142 yards, and a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins. Fields said after the game that the NFL seemed slow to him which must be a great sign moving forward for his owners. Zach Wilson made his pre-season debut for the New York Jets against the New York Giants and had a decent outing. Wilson did not make any spectacular plays, but he did not have any horrible plays either. If he keeps this up, Jets fans will be very happy. Finally, we have Mac Jones for the New England Patriots. Jones started his NFL debut by going 13-19 for 87 yards with no interceptions, or touchdowns. Jones looked comfortable and showed that he will fit in just fine with the Patriots in the future.

In this article I will be taking the Dynasty Owner relevant players from the NFC South and placing them into three separate categories called Buy, Sell, and Hold and all players will be looked at through a rebuilding owner’s eyes. The players in the Buy category are players you want to build your team around and will almost always be cheap and young. The players in the Sell category are players who will not be as productive in a few years, when your rebuild is ending and your team is ready to compete for a championship. The players in the Hold category will be players who do not have a clear role, players that are injured, or a player whose trade value is just too low to move on from currently. If you happen to have a differing opinion on some of these players, I would love to hear about it on Twitter!

BUY

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chris Godwin (1 year, $15,983,000)

Chris Godwin’s stocked has dropped quite a bit since this point last season and I understand why. In 2020, Godwin battled injuries causing him to miss chunks of time throughout the season. All of that said I do love Godwin in 2021 and beyond, and will be buying Godwin if I can afford his salary. Godwin will likely be the number 1 guy somewhere other than Tampa in 2022, but his price will increase from this year’s salary.

  • Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3 years, $1,188,999)

One year ago, Ke’Shawn Vaughn was one of the hot names heading into the start of the season. I never fully bought in on Vaughn last year because of the presence of Ronald Jones in Tampa, followed by the addition of Leonard Fournette. After a lackluster rookie season the time to buy Vaughn is now. He will not do much this season, but Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are both free agents come season’s end and it could mean a huge role for Vaughn if he is able to gain the coaching staff’s trust throughout 2021. The best part about Vaughn is you will be able to get him for a fraction of what he cost last year.

  • Tyler Johnson (3 years, $902,355)

Every time Tyler Johnson stepped on the field in 2020, he made play after play. Johnson will still come cheap because of the talent ahead of him in Tampa but he is an excellent long-term play. He has a knack for making tough catches and should blow up when finally given the chance to play in a full-time role. If you are buying him, you must be patient.

  • Jaelon Darden (4 years, $1,044,476)

If I had to choose between Tyler Johnson and Jaelon Darden, I am taking Johnson every time but that does not mean you should not target Darden on your rebuilding roster. These two young Tampa receivers are going to need time on your Practice Squad but should pay dividends in a few years when you are ready to compete. Plus, Tom Brady will just be getting into his prime when these guys are ready!

  • O.J. Howard (1 year, $6,013,000)

O.J. Howard was nearly as hyped as Kyle Pitts coming out of college and just has not panned out. Howard is still one of the most talented tight ends in football who started to show some life in 2020. If Howard takes another step forward, he could be an absolute steal.

New Orleans Saints

  • Tre’Quan Smith (1 year, $855,131)

The news around Michael Thomas is extremely concerning for the Saints, but it may be good news for rebuilding owners. Outside of the Saints turning into the Baltimore Ravens, you will get value out of Tre’Quan Smith in 2021. I would recommend selling Smith after a hot start to the season.

  • Marquez Callaway (2 years, $765,000)

Marquez Callaway is one of my favorite buys of the off-season. I was expecting Callaway to have a solid year with Michael Thomas in the picture and am expecting much more if Thomas misses an extended period. Callaway is a big physical receiver who can win one-on-one matchups. The sky is the limit for Callaway if Winston wins the quarterback battle.

  • Deonte Harris (1 year, $588,333)

Deonte Harris is a complete dart throw at this point, but as a rebuilding owner you should have several of these on your roster. Harris is a small, quick, and shifty receiver who has the skillset to excel in a Sean Payton offense. The time to buy Harris is now as he was just hit with a D.U.I. and will cost next to nothing to acquire.

  • Adam Trautman (3 years, $1,124,851)

With tight end Jared Cook leaving town it leaves a massive hole at tight end in the New Orleans offense. Adam Trautman is an extremely talented player out of the University of Dayton and was liked enough to be drafted in the 3rd round. The only thing I am negative on Trautman about is the fact I feel he is getting his opportunity a year too soon. I am buying Trautman, but a little patience will likely be needed.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Javian Hawkins (3 years, $810,000)

I have mentioned this numerous times recently and I will say it again, the Atlanta Falcons have one of the most wide-open running back rooms in the NFL. I love what Mike Davis was able to do last season in place of Christian McCaffrey, but he tailed off bad at the end of the year. If one of these young guns steps up for Atlanta, we could see more of a shared workload than initially thought.

  • Caleb Huntley (3 years, $810,000)

I am not particularly sure why, but I just get the feeling this kid will succeed somewhere in the NFL. Huntley was an absolute beast at Ball State where he put up impressive numbers throughout his college career. Call it a bold prediction but I see Huntley ending up as the number 2 guy in Atlanta. BUY, BUY, BUY!!

  • Calvin Ridley (1 year, $2,275,178)

Calvin Ridley is one of the best young building blocks in all of Dynasty Owner. The major negative buying Ridley is that he is going to be expensive next year when he gets a new deal, and when you trade for him. Even giving up assets and salary cap space, I still see Ridley being worth building around. I see plenty of scenarios where Ridley is the number 1 receiver in the NFL this season. The main knock on Ridley was he could not do it without Julio Jones. Well, he proved that theory to be massively wrong in 2020.

  • Frank Darby (4 years, $921,125)

I have Frank Darby on here for two reasons: the first being I like his talent; the second is because I am not a believer in the rest of the Falcons’ receiving room. While I do not see Darby as a huge contributor this season, I can see him building trust and making a role for himself come 2022.

  • Kyle Pitts (4 years, $8,227,624)

Kyle Pitts is one of the best tight ends to come out of college football in quite some time, if not ever, but the hype may be a bit much for a rookie tight end. I am sure Pitts will turn out to be a great tight end but if you are acquiring him do not be upset if he is not a stud instantly. I do not care how good he is unless the Falcons use him as receiver, there will be growing pains because of the position he plays.

Carolina Panthers

  • P.J. Walker (1 year, $782,500)

I must be honest; I am not exactly a P.J. Walker fan but after what I watched during the Panthers’ first preseason game I just might be now. Walker has done nothing but win and ball out every time he steps on to a football field from the NCAA, XFL, and now the NFL. I know it is just pre-season but remember when Dak Prescott appeared out of nowhere in the pre-season? Could he be Prescott lite?

  • Terrace Marshall (4 years, $1,432,372)

I am torn on how to feel about the prospect of Terrace Marshall. I love the talent and the fact he landed with his former coordinator Joe Brady. If Robby Anderson or D.J. Moore leaves Carolina next season the sky could be the limit for this kid. I see flashes of Chase Claypool watching Marshall play.

  • Tommy Tremble (4 years, $1,231,608)

I have not looked a ton into Tommy Tremble before doing this article so my opinion may be a bit flawed on him. After everything I have seen, I would compare Tremble to Jonnu Smith, an excellent blocker who is extremely athletic. Like most young tight ends, you will have to wait a year or two for Tremble to really get going.

  • Dan Arnold (2 years, $3,000,000)

Dan Arnold is by far the best bet for production on the Panthers at the tight end position in 2021. What I am doing with Arnold is buying him cheap now and hoping he has a great start to the season so I can move him for significantly more. The tight end position will likely be ugly again this season, meaning people will pay up for the ones who produce.

  • D.J. Moore (1 year, $2,792,829)

I hope someday our fearless leader Tim will get to meet D.J. Moore in person. All jokes aside, Moore is a fantastic young receiver to have as a building block on your rebuilding roster. Moore is also in line for a significant raise next season so be sure to plan for that.

  • Chuba Hubbard (4 years, $1,048,294)

We all witnessed that Christian McCaffrey is human in 2020. If for some reason that were to happen again, Chuba Hubbard could be a league winner. Hubbard started off fantastic in the pre-season and looks like a solid stash. You will need to be patient with Hubbard with Christian McCaffrey in front of him but when your team is ready to win Hubbard should be ready to compete for a starting job.

SELL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Tom Brady (1 year, $25,000,000)

I know I joke around a lot about Tom Brady playing until he is 80 years old but at some point, Father Time must catch up to him. If you are heading into a rebuild, you have no business rostering Tom Brady at this point in his career. It will take some cap wizardry to get a deal done but it is possible. I once traded Julio Jones ($22,000,000) to an owner against the cap.

  • Ronald Jones (1 year, $1,767,977)

The debate between Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette has been brewing for months now on Twitter. I am here to tell you to sell both now regardless of your roster situation. Currently both guys have solid trade value but as soon as one of them take the lead job, while the other’s value will be gone.

  • Leonard Fournette (1 year, $3,250,000)

As I mentioned above, it is time to move on from “Playoff Lenny.” Fournette is not worth holding as a rebuilding owner at this point in his career. The Tampa backfield is filled with uncertainty on top of everything else Fournette has working against him.

  • Giovani Bernard (1 year, $1,212,500)

I do not think there should be any interest in Giovani Bernard but for some reason there will be. You should be able to get a 3rd round pick out of him right now with everyone believing he will be Tampa’s version of James White. I am moving him before the season starts if possible!

  • Mike Evans (3 years, $16,500,000)

Mike Evans is a great player, but the future of his quarterback situation is in doubt on a rebuilding timeline. Evans battled injuries all last season and I am more comfortable selling rather than keeping him around for the long haul at his current price. Let the contenders have Evans for their championship run.

  • Rob Gronkowski (1 year, $8,000,000)

At 32 years old playing with an aging Tom Brady, it is time to sell the great Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has afforded us with a ton of great memories over the years, but in Dynasty Owner you must think with your head and not your heart…. I am talking to you Steve Van Tassell!

New Orleans Saints

  • Jameis Winston (1 year, $5,500,000)

While there is certainly a case to buy Jameis Winston right now, I just cannot fully get on board. Acquiring Winston will cost assets, and no one knows who will be under center in New Orleans. Even if Winston does win the job and he plays well, he will cost a pretty penny heading into 2022. Do what I did and sell Jameis Winston.

  • Taysom Hill (1 year, $12,159,000)

As just mentioned with Jameis Winston the same can be said about Taysom Hill. If Hill wins the job and plays well, he will get a massive deal, but you are also trading away assets for someone who may never be a consistent starter in the NFL. If I am betting on one of the two, it’s Winston and I do not care much for that bet.

  • Alvin Kamara (5 years, $15,000,000)

At $15,000,000 heading into his second contract, Alvin Kamara is a sell for rebuilding owners. Kamara is a Top 3 Dynasty Owner running back in terms of pure production, but he may not be around long after you start winning. Kamara was moved in one of my leagues the other day, below is the trade.

The Vermont Teddy B Company – Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Anthony Schwartz, and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Henry Hotdog – Melvin Gordon, Cole Kmet, Cole Beasley, Mike Boone, 2022 1st, 2024 2nd.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Matt Ryan (3 years, $30,000,000)

If you are rostering Matt Ryan, you may end up needing to use an amnesty provision to move on from him. I would try to trade him first, but you will have an uphill battle ahead of you. As a rebuilding owner, I am cutting ties before the season starts one way or another.

  • Mike Davis (2 years, $2,750,000)

I can see plenty of scenarios where Mike Davis is not Atlanta’s full time running back come the end of the season and rebuilding owners should be moving on for that reason alone. I am not sure Mike Davis’ value will rise any higher than it is right now as the Falcons full time starter. Cash in on Davis before it is too late.

  • Russell Gage (1 year, $654,049)

I am sure a lot of you reading this are wanting to buy Russell Gage and that is ok. I am not particularly high on Gage, though I do think he will put up decent numbers again this season. I just feel this is going to be peak Gage trade value, which is why I am selling him.

Carolina Panthers

  • Christian McCaffrey (4 years, $16,015,875)

Christian McCaffrey as a Sell hurts my heart more than any other player out of this entire series, but it needs to be done. McCaffrey is undoubtedly one of, if not the best asset in all of fantasy football. I have already put my money where my mouth is and dealt McCaffrey at the end of last season to jump start my rebuild.

  • Robby Anderson (1 year, $10,000,000)

Robby Anderson and Sam Darnold are back together again and while many are giving Anderson a boost, I am saying pump the breaks. While I am very intrigued by Darnold getting away from his potential kryptonite, Adam Gase, I just do not see Anderson having a better season than he did in 2020 unless someone like DeShaun Watson were under center for the Panthers. I have Anderson coming in just a tick lower than his output in 2020 and feel the time to move him is now.

HOLD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antonio Brown (1 year, $3,075,000)

I know this one may seem weird, but I really feel that Antonio Brown can get back into the wide receiver 2 range each week. Tom Brady loved Brown and I am expecting Tampa to pass the ball quite a bit more in 2021 with a fully healthy Brady, who now has a full year under his belt in this offense. If you have Brown, he is not costing you much to hold and if he produces the way I am expecting, he will bring back a 1st round pick no problem.

  • Scotty Miller (2 years, $661,960)

Scotty Miller has flashed at times throughout his short NFL career, but the outlook is bleak for 2021. Miller has three studs in front of him on the depth chart in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown. If you have Miller, you need to be looking at holding him for 2022 and beyond. I would have slotted Miller in the Buy category, but I do not feel the juice is worth the squeeze to go out and trade for him.

New Orleans Saints

  • Michael Thomas (4 years, $19,250,000)

I am not sure there is a bigger disappointment thus far in the off-season than Michael Thomas. Thomas is one of the most gifted wideouts in all of football and just does not seem all that thrilled to be in New Orleans. While I do think both sides work things out and we see Thomas on the field with the Saints when healthy, you must hold him until he is back producing, or you will miss out on a lot of value.

  • Latavius Murray (2 years, $3,600,000)

If Murray had stepped into Kamara’s role last season and shined, he would be an instant sell right now. The issue is he did not look all that great last year and is not bringing much back in a trade now. I am holding onto Murray to see if he can regain form before I try to trade him.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Hayden Hurst (1 year, $2,759,007)

It seems Hayden Hurst just has not been able to catch a break during his short NFL career. In Baltimore, he had Mark Andrews taken in the same draft who became a borderline star, then he has a decent first year in Atlanta and they take generational talent Kyle Pitts in the draft to play ahead of Hurst. I am holding Hurst until I see what happens after his current deal is up.

  • Olamide Zaccheaus (1 year, $586,667)

If you cannot tell by the categories I have them placed in, I like Zaccheaus a little bit more than Gage for the long haul. I do see Gage performing a little bit better overall this season, but I think Zaccheaus starts to take over more towards the end of the season. I am expecting Gage will want more than the Falcons are willing to pay at his contract’s end, leaving Zaccheaus to be the leading candidate for the number 2 spot opposite of Calvin Ridley.

Carolina Panthers

  • David Moore (2 years, $2,375,000)

If you can trick your league mates into thinking this is D.J. Moore than you can move David Moore into the Sell category. I am just kidding of course. In all honesty there may not be much of a market with Terrace Marshall having a great start to the pre-season. I would hold Moore in case Marshall struggles early on.

  • Ian Thomas (1 year, $801,999)

Heading into 2020 I was optimistic for both Ian Thomas and Irv Smith and both let me down tremendously. The Panthers brought a ton of competition in for Thomas now hopefully it will bring out the best in him. Thomas is a Hold until we see how things play out in Carolina.

Conclusion

We are now down to one week left for the series of Buy, Sell, and Hold with the dreaded NFC East the last division left. I saved the worst for last in this series and think I will make this an annual article series. If you guys have any friends, or you yourself is interested in joining Dynasty Owner, now is the time to get setup and practicing your mock drafts as we have just under three weeks to go before, we see real NFL action.

If you are a rebuilding owner who would like to talk about some of the moves you have made, please feel free to contact me on Twitter. I hope you guys enjoyed the article and be sure to check out Steve and Matt’s articles/videos as well on Mondays and Wednesdays. As always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

Players to Pick Up Off the Free Agent Auction

By Steven Van Tassell

It’s time to talk about the Dynasty Owner Free Agent Auction. If you’re not familiar with the term, it’s basically Dynasty Owner’s version of waivers, but it’s not a traditional waivers system. All players not on a Dynasty Owner roster are available after the startup draft and throughout the season. Dynasty Owners bid on available players using Dynasty Dollars (new Dynasty Owners get $10 million Dynasty Dollars for signing up and joining a league and you can purchase and win them as well). See the Dynasty Owner Constitution for more details – go to https://app.dynastyowner.com/how-to-play and hit the red DO Constitution button.

After your Dynasty Owner league draft is over, every team has a 25-player roster. However, Dynasty Owner rosters can be up to 30 players (plus 3 Injured Reserve spots). If they have space under the $127.75 million salary cap, Dynasty Owners can add more players after their draft via the Free Agent Auction. In the Free Agent Auction, you’ll find players ranging from high-salary starting QBs like Jared Goff (2.3% ownership) and Kirk Cousins (0.8% ownership) to 20 current free agents who have listed salaries of less than $500,000 (there are 19 with a $495,000 annual salary for 2021, including former Miami Hurricanes RB Mark Walton and WR Herb Waters who are rostered in 6.1% and 3.0% of Dynasty Owner leagues respectively, and QB Tanner Lee who is listed with a $480,000 salary for this season and rostered right now in 8.3% of Dynasty Owner leagues).

With over 1,000 players available in the Free Agent Auction, it can be a little daunting to figure out who to pick up and who to leave sitting there for someone else. Since Dynasty Owner is all about value and finding those low-salary, high point players, players with salaries around or under $1 million who have the opportunity to be productive in 2021 are hard to find since they tend to be selected in a startup draft, or already on a roster in established leagues.

In the past, it was easier. After the inaugural 2019 season, I did an article (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/02/available-players-2020/) highlighting four players who were widely available at the time in Dynasty Owner and had annual salaries of far less than $1 million. Two of those players (Myles Gaskin and Russell Gage) turned out to have pretty good 2020 seasons and are now 100% rostered. The other two (Steven Sims and Foster Moreau) didn’t do so well last year, but still have ownership levels in the 40%-50% range due to their youth, potential and affordable contracts.

Later in the 2020 off-season, Dynasty Owners were given an extra $2 million in salary cap room and I suggested a host of players to pick up with that extra space (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/08/players-to-pick-up-with-the-extra-2-million-in-salary-cap-in-2020/). Those picks were less than stellar, but Wayne Gallman was among them and after the injury to Saquon Barkley, Gallman stepped in and finished the 2020 season with seven games of 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and a total of 137.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That was good enough to be RB34 for the season. At the time of the article in mid-August, he was only rostered in one-quarter (24%) of Dynasty Owner leagues.

As Dynasty Owners get more familiar with the game, learn more about contracts and salaries, it gets more and more difficult to find these players. However, it’s time again to see if we can find the next Myles Gaskin, Russell Gage or even the 2020 version of Wayne Gallman. To qualify for consideration, players have to make around $1 million or less for the 2021 season and be rostered in less than 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues. The salary limit is flexible since it’s harder to find these guys now, but we won’t stray much above the $1 million mark. Despite the difficulty, here are 9 players (3 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1 TE) who fit that criteria and should be more widely owned than they are right now.

All 2021 projections come from Rotowire and are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

All 2021 Dynasty Owner ADP and fantasy points projections were accurate as of the morning of August 18th.

Backup Quarterbacks to Stash

There are plenty of teams with veteran backup QBs who will cost Dynasty Owners a lot more than around $1 million. Clear backups for 2021 like Case Keenum (QB – CLE), Jacoby Brissett (QB – MIA), Joe Flacco (QB – PHI) and Jordan Love (QB – GB) all have salaries north of $3 million. Even guys like Mitchell Trubisky (QB – BUF), C.J. Beathard (QB – JAX) and Tim Boyle (QB – DET) make $2.5 million. However, other teams have more affordable backup QBs who are available in more than half of Dynasty Owner leagues now.

Dynasty Owner teams need to consider having a backup QB on their roster for the simple fact that QBs get injured in the NFL. For the 2021 season, only 13 out of 32 NFL teams started the same QB in all 16 regular season games. An additional 13 teams used two starting QBs, while five teams (Cincinnati, Denver, Jacksonville, San Francisco and Washington) used three and the Dallas Cowboys used four starting QBs last season (Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert). Unless you’re convinced that one of the QBs with an expensive backup is going to get injured (or benched), then your best bet for an inexpensive backup QB are these guys.

  • Phillip Walker (QB – CAR) – 1 year, $782,500 – 10.6% ownership

There are only three QBs on the Carolina Panthers roster right now – Sam Darnold, Will Grier and Phillip Walker. Obviously Darnold is the starter since Carolina traded three draft picks (2021 sixth round pick which the Jets subsequently traded to Kansas City, a 2022 second round pick, and a 2022 fourth round pick). Carolina also exercised the fifth year option in Darnold’s rookie contract and will pay him $18.858 million in 2022. Make no mistake, he’s their guy.

However, Darnold has been in the NFL for three seasons and has missed a total of ten games to injury in that time (three games in 2018 due to a foot injury, three games in 2019 due to mono, and four games in 2020 due to a shoulder injury). It’s very likely either Walker or Grier makes a few appearances in 2021 and probably starts at least a game or two. Walker started the one game in 2020 that Teddy Bridgewater missed due to injury and played in four games overall. Grier did not appear in any games in 2020, so the edge to be the backup in Carolina goes to Walker. Walker also has a lower salary than Grier ($963,249) and one less year on his contract.

  • Nick Mullens (QB – PHI) – 1 year, $970,000 – 9.1% ownership

Similar to Carolina, Philadelphia only has three QBs on its current roster with Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens both trying to be the backup to Jalen Hurts. Both are owned in less than 10% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but Mullens is the better choice to stash since he is over $2.5 million cheaper at $970,000 (versus $3.5 million for Flacco). Both performed about the same in relief of their starting QBs in 2020. In four starts for the Jets, Flacco scored 70.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or an average of 17.6 points per game. While Mullens started eight games for the 49ers and scored 126.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or an average of 15.75 points per game.

  • Mason Rudolph (QB – PIT) – 1 year, $980,472 – 30.3% ownership

Ben Roethlisberger is 39 years old and probably in his last season in Pittsburgh. Mason Rudolph is only 26 years old and likely the next starting QB for the Steelers. In 2021, he’ll cost Dynasty Owners under $1 million, but that jumps up to $5 million in 2022. In 2019, Rudolph played in 10 games and scored 139.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 13.9 points per game. He also started in Week 17 versus Cleveland last season and scored 25.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Those numbers aren’t great, but they aren’t terrible either for less than $1 million in salary. Of course, Dwayne Haskins could play instead of Rudolph for the Steelers, but Haskins is rostered in two-thirds (66.7%) of Dynasty Owner leagues right now. Haskins’ salary for 2021 is slightly lower than Rudolph at $850,000, but he’s not eligible for this list due to his high ownership.

All of the other backup QBs in the correct price range, such as Gardner Minshew ($677,721) and both Colts QBs who might end up playing in place of Carson Wentz if he misses any games, Jacob Eason ($1,006,816) and Sam Ehlinger ($902,677), are owned in over 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues.

Slim Pickings at Running Back

Not surprisingly, there are few RBs available in more than half of Dynasty Owner leagues who make around $1 million and should be on more rosters. The top guys in that price range and most of the backups are rostered in 100% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Most of the rookies at that salary level, like Elijah Mitchell, Chris Evans, Khalil Herbert, Kylin Hill and Jermar Jefferson are rostered in over 90% of Dynasty Owner leagues. The top undrafted rookie free agents Javian Hawkins (RB – ATL) and Jaret Patterson (RB – WAS) are owned in 97.7% and 68.9% of leagues respectively. However, there are two guys who Dynasty Owners should consider stashing away.

  • Caleb Huntley (RB – ATL) – 1 year, $810,000 – 25.8% ownership

Both Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley are undrafted rookie free agents with identical 3-year, $810,000 annual salary contracts. However, if you didn’t draft Javian Hawkins in your regular or rookie draft, you missed out as he’s rostered in nearly every Dynasty Owner league. If you aren’t buying Mike Davis as the Falcons RB1 all season and didn’t draft Hawkins for your roster, then Caleb Huntley should be on your Practice Squad. Huntley had a great college career with 2,902 rushing yards at Ball State. He also rushed for more than 100 yards in 10 out of his final 11 games in college. There are plenty of low-salary, undrafted rookie free agents out there on the Free Agent Auction, but Huntley is one of the few who could play a role for his NFL team in 2021.

  • Brian Hill (RB – TEN) – 1 year, $990,000 – 26.5% ownership

Last year when Christian McCaffrey went down, most people thought it would be Reggie Bonnafon who would step in and play. Turns out, it was Mike Davis who went on to save many fantasy teams’ season by finishing the 2020 season with 205.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish as RB12. Flash forward to 2021 and everyone feels like Darrynton Evans will be Derrick Henry’s replacement if Henry gets hurt this year. At a little over $1.14 million in salary, Evans is 100% rostered in Dynasty Owner. Meanwhile, Brian Hill is only rostered in about one-quarter of leagues for $150,000 less in salary. Evans only had 21.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in five games (4.2 points per game) in 2020. In contrast, Hill played in all 16 games for Atlanta and averaged 5.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (93.4 points in total). Evans might end up being better and playing more, but unless you want to trade for him, you can’t have him. If you are concerns about Henry’s workload, but don’t want to spend what the Evans’ owner is asking, pick up Hill as a handcuff.

Neither Hill or Huntley is likely to be the next James Robinson or Phillip Lindsay, but both are worth a roster spot due to their salary and the lack of affordable and available RBs on the typical Dynasty Owner league Free Agent Auction.

Three Wide Receiver Formation

In contrast, there are more WRs available who fit this criteria than any other position. Two out of the three WRs below are actually quite close to being rostered in 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues, while the third one isn’t at all.

  • Greg Ward (WR – PHI) – 1 year, $850,000 – 46.2% ownership

Greg Ward is very close to being rostered in half of Dynasty Owner leagues and for good reason. He led Philadelphia with 53 receptions and 79 targets in 2020 and has four or more receptions in over half of the NFL games that he has played in (12 out of 23 total). He is also listed as the starter at WR3 on the team’s unofficial depth chart. It’s true that the Eagles have drafted a WR with their first draft pick in each of the past two NFL drafts. However, Ward should be on the field a lot as new Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni used a three WR formation over 60% of the time in every year that he was the Offensive Coordinator in Indianapolis according to Sharp Football Stats (https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html).

  • Isaiah McKenzie (WR – BUF) – 1 year, $1,127,500 – 3.8% ownership

Another WR who scored more than 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 is Isaiah McKenzie, but he is rostered in less than 5% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Despite being the WR5 in Buffalo, Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll likes to get McKenzie the ball as he’s averaged 2.7 touches per game and 5.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game on offense while a member of the Bills. He might have an expanded role in 2021 as kickoff and punt returner Andre Roberts left Buffalo for Houston. Roberts had 1,248 return yards in 2020 and 885 return yards in 2019, which equates to 31.2 and 22.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points since Dynasty Owner gives players 1 point for every 40 return yards. He’s only projected for 51.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 but that seems really low, especially if he does return kicks. I have him on one of my rosters and encourage more of you to do the same thing.

  • Demarcus Robinson (WR – KC) – 1 year, $1,127,500 – 46.2% ownership

This is surprising. Robinson has scored more than 100.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of the past two seasons (105.8 in 2020 and 100.9 in 2019). Those were good for WR71 in 2019 and WR68 in 2020, so basically the sixth best WR on your roster. Last season, he played more snaps than any Kansas City WR not named Tyreek Hill. Robinson was on the field for 64.5% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps versus 45.3% for Mecole Hardman with both playing in all 16 games. His stats for the past two years compare pretty favorably against his teammate as shown below. The most surprising column is the second one that shows Hardman is rostered in 100% of Dynasty Owner leagues compared to just 46.2% for Robinson.

Player% Rostered2021 Salary2019 Points2020 Points
Mecole Hardman100%$1,248,763135.3139.4
Demarcus Robinson46.2%$1,127,500105.8100.9

With Sammy Watkins not in Kansas City anymore, Hardman is projected to step into his role as the Chiefs’ WR2 (but really the third best receiver on the team behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce). If you’re not sure about Hardman and feel like your Dynasty Owner roster needs another Chiefs WR, go see if Robinson is available in your league.

Originally, this section was going to also feature Quez Watkins (WR – PHI) who has a salary of $866,166, but his ownership jumped to 59.9% over the past few days.

The Free Agent Auction is Tight on Tight Ends

There are quite a few quality TEs making around $1 million or less who could contribute to your Dynasty Owner team this season. However, like the RBs, most of them are rostered in far more than 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) was TE6 in 2020 and only costs $863,290 in salary this year. However, his 2021 startup draft ADP is 53.8 so he’s not on the Free Agent Auction in any league. The single TE on our list here is rostered in a mere 98.5% fewer Dynasty Owner leagues than Andrews, but should be on more rosters.

  • Richard Rodgers (TE – PHI) – 1 year, $1,027,500 – 1.5% ownership

Understandably, most Dynasty Owners aren’t excited by the prospect of picking up the third TE on the Eagles. However, if the Eagles trade Zach Ertz, Rodgers should move up and be the backup to Dallas Goedert. Last season, Goedert and Ertz missed the Eagles’ Week 7 matchup against the New York Giants. Rodgers stepped in and was the team’s leading receiver in that game with 6 receptions for 85 yards (14.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).

For those of you looking for Donald Parham (TE – LAC), he just missed being included on the list as 56.1% of Dynasty Owner leagues have an owner with the former XFL star on their roster at a salary of $695,000 for the 2021 season.

Conclusion

Once your startup draft is over, Dynasty Owners can use any excessive salary cap room to pick up additional players off the Free Agent Auction. Since most Dynasty Owners tend to spend close to all of their cap room, they don’t have room to add the most expensive players out there. That’s why they need to find affordable veteran players to stash on their Practice Squad now, instead of waiting until they have a good game and you and the rest of your league are bidding on them.

Hopefully all Dynasty Owners found this article helpful in getting ready for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. Dynasty Owner has plenty of other great content to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you get prepared for your startup draft, as well as help tweak your roster after your draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team are being released on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Mondays, while Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Fridays. All of the articles will be released at 1 PM (Eastern) with videos and podcast released at 3 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful, or at least interesting, for everyone who just drafted their first Dynasty Owner team or has played Dynasty Owner in the past. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Contract Breakdown: Philadelphia Eagles

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Good day Dynasty Owners and welcome back to another contract breakdown article. The regular season continues to approach as we are currently 24 days away from regular season football. The road that we have traveled together was a long one. After this article concludes, we will be one team away from having discussed every single team in the NFL. Today we will talk about a few players from the Eagles, next week we will discuss the Washington Football Team. First, let’s talk about some free agents that the Eagles had coming into the 2021 off-season.

Free Agents

In all, there were four Eagles’ free agents that I planned to discuss. Three of these players are returning for at least one more year in Philly, while one has moved on to a division rival. As I’ve mentioned before, there are many more free agents that the Eagles had to make decisions about after the 2020 season. I would be here all day if I were going to write about each and every one of them. Instead, what I do is pick out the most important free agents for us as Dynasty Owners. These four players are the most rosterable in our format and are therefore, more important to discuss. Here are the four players that I felt were notable enough to write about this week…

  • Richard Rodgers
  • Boston Scott
  • Greg Ward
  • Corey Clement

Let’s start from the top with Richard Rodgers. Rodgers was an unrestricted free agent following the 2020 season, but the Eagles elected to bring him back on a single year deal worth a little over one million dollars. The formal deal is 1 year – $1,027,500. The hard truth is that Rodgers will not make much of a fantasy impact in the 2021 season. In fact, he really didn’t make much of an impact in 2020 either. He compiled only 70.5 fantasy points on the whole season, and he averaged only 8.8 fantasy points in the games that he recorded at least one reception. The situation is further complicated by the fact that he is projected to be the TE3 for the team. As we know, Zach Ertz has still not been traded, and it doesn’t appear he will be dealt before the start of the season. Additionally, Dallas Goedert is there and looks to be the number one fantasy points leader for tight ends on the Eagles in 2021. Suffice it to say, the Eagles have a crowded tight end committee, and I see no reasonable path forward for Rodgers to receive a high amount of volume. Obviously, an injury can occur to either of the other two tight ends, and that would make Rodgers a little more of an interesting option. For now, consider him a deep stash and don’t expect a large fantasy output from him at least in the short term.

Boston Scott is a player that I love to watch. Despite posting only 80 rushing attempts and 25 receptions, he ended the 2020 season with 111.5 fantasy points. Not bad for an extremely cheap player with low volume. Scott came into the 2021 off season as an exclusive rights free agent (ERFA). I have mentioned this type of free agent in the past and this is the quick breakdown of what an ERFA means…I wrote this quote about JaMycal Hasty back in January:

“ JaMycal Hasty’s situation is a little more complicated. Hasty is an ERFA. An ERFA is any player that has not accrued three years of service in the NFL and has an expiring contract.  These types of free agents are almost always undrafted rookies. Hasty fits that description, and being an ERFA, he really has no options. The 49ers are able to sign him to a one year tender for slightly more than their original contract. ERFA have no leverage to meet or sign with other teams. Essentially, expect Hasty to be back in SF next year with a very similar contract.”

This is the same situation that Boston Scott was in this off-season. Scott had virtually no leverage after he was offered an ERFA tag. The Eagles offered it and he signed in in the beginning of March. His contract is 1 year – $920,000. This is a great value for a player of Scott’s talent, but I’m worried the opportunity will not be there once again. Complicating matters is the fact that the Eagles signed Kerryon Johnson after he was waived by the Lions last year. I still consider Scott the number two running back on the team due to his tenure, but I wouldn’t doubt if Johnson shows to be the more talented running back quickly. Scott is a clear hold candidate as there isn’t much risk associated with it.

Greg Ward is another player that resigned with the Eagles after being offered an ERFA tag. Like Scott, Ward had almost no leverage and was virtually forced to sign the tag. The good news is that with an ERFA tag comes a cheap contract. This is good news for Dynasty Owners, but obviously not great news for Ward himself. At any rate, Ward’s contract is 1 year – $850,000. As is the case with Scott, hold Ward in the event that he works his way up to the starting wide receiver rotation.

The final player I want to mention is Corey Clement. He is the lone free agent in the article that signed with a new team. Clement finished the 2020 season with nearly zero fantasy impact.  He had only 21.6 fantasy points, and he looks to provide valuable running back depth to the New York Giants. Even with the signing, he will have a tough path to volume. He is currently third in the pecking order for running backs. Saquon Barkley is obviously the top dog, but newly acquired Devontae Booker will most likely start the season as the RB2 for the Giants. Clement’s contract is 1 year – $990,000.

Now that we got all the former free agents out of the way, let’s do a contract breakdown with one of the most undervalued players coming into the 2021 season…Jalen Reagor.

Contract Breakdown

It seems like Jalen Reagor has all but been forgotten this offseason, especially after the 2021 NFL Draft. The addition of DeVonta Smith certainly nuked the optimism for Reagor. The truth is that Reagor had his own issues prior to Smith being drafted. There were five games in the 2020 NFL season that Reagor did not catch a pass. The majority of these goose eggs were due to the fact that he had right thumb surgery early on in the season. Reagor comes into 2021 with three years remaining on his rookie contract worth $3,317,669. Let’s see how he compares to similar valued wide receivers…

 Salary2021 Projected FPs2021 DD/FP
Marquise Brown$2,946,835204.8$14,389
Jerry Jeudy$3,798,243238.7$15,912
Jalen Reagor$3,317,669176.9$18,754
Kadarius Toney$3,429,877159.9$21,504
DeVonta Smith$5,035,348217.9$23,109

With the exception of Hollywood Brown, all five of these players are current rookies or were rookies last year. I did this on purpose to give a comparison of value for similar seasoned players.  Which of these five players would you rather own in Dynasty Owner? For me, I rank them like this…

  1. Jerry Jeudy
  2. DeVonta Smith
  3. Jalen Reagor
  4. Marquise Brown
  5. Kadarius Toney

I think that Jeudy is most poised to make an impact in the 2021 season. His quarterback situation is a little shaky, but with three years remaining on his contract, he will continue to be a large value. As I mentioned earlier, DeVonta Smith is the new kid in town, and that is what has pushed Reagor’s dynasty outlook so far down. Both receivers will be the top targeted wide receivers for the Eagles in 2021, but it’s likely they aren’t the most targeted players on the team.  Dallas Goedert and Miles Sanders could both receive more targets than both receivers.

Here is the biggest discrepancy I have with Smith and Reagor.  At the time of this writing, here are each receivers Dynasty Owner ADP…

 SalaryADP
DeVonta Smith$5,035,34857.2
Jalen Reagor$3,317,669147.9

This is actually not hard for me to understand, but it doesn’t mean I agree with it. Smith does have an additional year remaining on his rookie deal, and he has more draft equity invested in him, but here is a shocking stat…Reagor is actually younger than Smith. This combined with the fact that Reagor is being drafted eight rounds later than Smith in startup drafts makes me heavily favor Jalen when we factor in the draft capital you need to pay for each receiver. 

The bottom line is that Jalen Reagor is being criminally undervalued in his sophomore year, and it’s about time we change that…

Next week I will wrap up this entire Contract Breakdown theme when we talk about the Washington Football Team. After next week, I will do a couple of weeks of recaps of this year’s article as we lead into the start of the NFL regular season. I want to thank everyone for reading and for watching my video breakdowns on YouTube. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Thank you all.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Buy, Sell, Hold: NFC West Stock Watch

By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

We have three pre-season games in the books and many more to come. As we go through the pre-season, I will use the introduction of my articles to let you know the major happenings around the league. As of now, things are quiet but Carson Wentz seems to be on track to start Week 1 which is good news all around for the Colts offense. Amari Cooper has finally been taken off the PUP list and should be a go for the regular season, while his teammate Dak Prescott is set to undergo an M.R.I. but should be ready for Week 1 as well. Rookie Rashod Bateman is having surgery on his groin and will return “sometime in September”. Finally, Zack Moss missed practice because of a hamstring injury. None of this news seems troubling to me, but Zack Moss is one to keep an eye on as he has had injury issues dating back to college.

As I have in the past articles of this series, I will be placing players into 3 separate categories called Buy, Sell, and Hold. The players in this week’s article will be from one of the best divisions in football, the NFC West. In this article all players will be looked at through a rebuilding owner’s eyes. The players placed in the Buy category are always going to be young players with a ton of upside, along with great draft capital, and a clear path to the field. The players in the Sell category are going to be older players, players who are expensive, and players who fit better on contending rosters. The players in the Hold category will be players who have solid veterans blocking their path to the field, due a new contract soon, or a player whose trade value is down. If you have a differing opinion, please feel free to let me know on Twitter.

Miss from last week!

Amon-Ra St. Brown (4 years, $1,066,313)

I am still in shock I left one of my favorite rookies off last week’s article. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of my favorite buys heading into the 2021 season. St. Brown does not have the glamorous 1st round draft capital like some do but he does have a massive opportunity in front of him and could very well lead the Detroit Lions receiving room in targets this coming season. St. Brown should come cheap and should be on your rebuilding roster.

BUY

Seattle Seahawks

  • DK Metcalf (2 years, $1,146,513)

The track star DK Metcalf is one of my favorite young receivers in all of football. As a rebuilding owner Metcalf is exactly the type of player you want on your roster. He is young, talented, cheap, and tied to a great quarterback. What more could you ask for!

  • D’Wayne Eskridge (4 years, $1,488,376)

Eskridge was one of my favorite late round picks in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts and a lot of it has to do with Russell Wilson. If Eskridge finds a way to fit into this offense, we could finally see the Seattle Seahawks we have all been begging for the last few years.

  • Cade Johnson (3 years, $808,333)

Cade Johnson is someone not many are high on and quite frankly, he may not even make the Seahawks roster. If you have room for a talented player who does not have the best shot at making a roster, Cade Johnson is an excellent target.

  • Gerald Everett (1 year, $6,000,000)

Placing Gerald Everett as a Buy may be questionable to some, but I am excited to see his role in the Seattle offense. Everett was a 2nd round draft pick for the Rams and underwhelmed during his time with the team. Everett should come cheap, and you should have no issue moving him for more than you paid later in the season when he is balling out with Russ.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Cam Akers (3 years, $1,543,258)

I know I say to be cautious buying running backs early in a rebuild but Akers is the perfect candidate. After the injury Akers should be significantly cheaper to acquire and will not score you any points this year, helping you in your goal towards the Number 1 pick.

  • Van Jefferson (3 years, $1,402,784)

Van Jefferson is a tricky player to project. He is in a very good offense and has 2nd round draft capital but the two studs in front of him on the depth chart (Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp) are both locked into deals for the foreseeable future, but I still like the talent.

  • Tutu Atwell (4 years, $1,477,175)

As I just said with Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell is in the same exact scenario just a little worse. Atwell not only has Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in front of him, but he also has Van Jefferson to deal with. I am buying Atwell right now but only because he is extremely cheap and has 2nd round draft capital.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Trey Lance (4 years, $8,526,319)

I am placing all these young rookie signal callers in the Buy bracket because they are a tremendous value to rebuilding owners. The problem with buying these types of players are that you are going to have to significantly mortgage your future just to have them on your roster. If you have visions of selling, I will not blame you at all.

  • Elijah Mitchell (4 years, $915,892)

Elijah Mitchell is a great dart throw and an excellent Buy for any rebuilding roster. Mitchell is buried on the 49ers depth chart at the moment, but he has the talent to find a role in this offense. The 49ers breed productive running backs and Mitchell could be the next one in line.

  • Brandon Aiyuk (3 years, $3,132,835)

Brandon Aiyuk is one of my favorite players heading into 2021 and feel he will double in value after the season he is about to have. If Trey Lance is what we expect him to be (we love semi-quoting Dennis Green around here) then I feel Aiyuk is going to be a future star at the receiver position.

  • Deebo Samuel (2 years, $1,811,869)

While I do not see Deebo Samuel in the same conversation as his teammate Brandon Aiyuk, I do think he will be a solid fantasy starter for many years if he can stay healthy. Aiyuk will be the star, but Samuel will be the cheaper wide out for the 49ers and may even end up with a better yearly Dynasty Dollars per Point (DD/PT) value.

  • George Kittle (5 years, $15,000,000)

The tight end position can give you the biggest advantage in all of fantasy football and is one of the hardest to fill. I know George Kittle is expensive and will be putting up big numbers this year, but as young as he is I recommend buying Kittle and forgetting about the tight end position for many years to come.

Arizona Cardinals

  • Eno Benjamin (3 years, $849,428)

If you believe in either Chase Edmonds, or James Conner becoming a workhorse, Eno Benjamin may not be the Buy for you. If you do not believe in either of those guys becoming a work horse running back, I highly suggest putting Eno Benjamin on your Dynasty Owner roster. Eno Benjamin may very well be the most talented back on the Cardinals roster.

  • Kyler Murray (2 years, $8,914,504)

If Kyler Murray can stay healthy throughout his career, he may end up as one of the best, most consistent fantasy quarterbacks of all time. If you can get your hands on Murray, you need to immediately plan for his future contract and start building around him.

  • Christian Kirk (1 year, $1,473,717)

I am not all that big of a fan of Christian Kirk, but he is a talented NFL player. The Cardinals seem to be content moving off him after bringing in someone like A.J. Green and drafting Rondale Moore, but Kirk only has one year left in the desert and may get a fresh start elsewhere come 2022.

  • Rondale Moore (4 years, $1,731,060)

Introducing the Christian Kirk killer, Rondale Moore. Moore is an extremely talented kid out of Purdue and has great draft capital after being taken in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL draft. Moore may not step into a significant role right away but come mid-season I expect him to start seeing significant playing time. Buy Moore now before it is too late.

  • Maxx Williams (1 year, $3,500,000)

I remember Maxx Williams coming out of Minnesota and doing very well in the pre-draft process, looking like an athletic freak. Fast-forward a few years and he has been stuck behind Mark Andrews, not getting a shot at actual playing time. All of that is in the past and Williams will finally get a chance to become a NFL starter. I am buying Williams before he breaks out with a big game and the asking price doubles.

SELL

Seattle Seahawks

  • Russell Wilson (3 years, $35,000,000)

As a fan, I want Russell Wilson on my team solely because he is so much fun to watch, but as a rebuilding owner I feel completely opposite. While keeping, or acquiring Wilson could be understandable in regular dynasty, this is Dynasty Owner where Wilson’s salary matters. I am trading Wilson before he is a year older and a year closer to being extended.

  • Chris Carson (2 years, $5,212,500)

I have mentioned numerous times over the past few weeks that the landscape of the running back position is downright ugly. If you are a rebuilding owner with a running back like Chris Carson on your roster, you need to move him immediately. Carson’s salary is cheap compared to others at his position, making him tradeable to almost any owner.

  • Tyler Lockett (1 year, $10,250,000)

If I am being honest Tyler Lockett is one of my favorite players in football and has been since he was playing at Kansas State. If Lockett were a little younger and cheaper, I would have him as a Buy. The hype around Lockett is fantastic right now, rebuilding owners should take advantage.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Matthew Stafford (2 years, $27,000,000)

I like Matthew Stafford at this salary a ton, but do not feel he is someone rebuilding owners should be targeting. At this point in the off-season, there is rightfully a lot of hype around Stafford and the Rams offense, which is exactly what I love taking advantage of when rebuilding.

  • Darrell Henderson (2 years, $1,053,001)

If you are rebuilding and you have Darrell Henderson, you need to be shopping him immediately. I cannot find the exact stat, but Henderson has never seen north of a 70% snap share in any game in his entire career, including the games Cam Akers was not playing in. Take advantage of the Henderson hype now or you will come to regret the decision.

  • Xavier Jones (2 years, $764,667)

After reading the Darrell Henderson piece, I do not think you need to hear much on Xavier Jones. Jones is a talented kid, but he and Henderson are just keeping the seat warm until Cam Akers returns next season. Sell the Jones hype.

  • DeSean Jackson (1 year, $4,500,000)

I am not sure any owner in their right mind would give up much for DeSean Jackson but if you find someone willing, it is time to move on from the speedster.

  • Cooper Kupp (3 years, $15,750,000)

I will continue to say this, sell the hype. The Rams offense is getting nothing but praise at the moment and rebuilding owners need to take advantage. I am selling someone like Kupp for one of the young promising receivers if I can.

  • Robert Woods (5 years, $16,250,000)

As I just mentioned with Cooper Kupp, I will echo with Robert Woods. He is getting older, and your team needs to get younger. Sell Woods to a contending owner for one of his talented young guys.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (2 years, $27,500,000)

At $27,500,000, you will have a tough time moving Jimmy G. but with quarterbacks in the $40 million range he now looks like somewhat of a value. If you can afford to hold Jimmy G. in hopes the 49ers will trade him, it is not a bad strategy. In most scenarios, you will want to just take what someone will give you and move on.

  • Raheem Mostert (1 year, $2,900,000)

Raheem Mostert will be a productive fantasy back this season, but I feel it will be his last productive year. The 49ers drafted his replacement in Trey Sermon and all reports have Sermon as the lead back out of the Bay Area. Get rid of Mostert before the 49ers do and he has little to no value left.

  • Trey Sermon (4 years, $1,218,234)

I hate myself for this more than everyone else is going to. Sell Trey Sermon. Sermon’s value is absolutely skyrocketing right now as I just seen him go ahead of Javonte Williams and Travis Etienne in a regular dynasty draft. As much as I love the former Buckeye, the craze has gotten to be too much. Grab as many assets as you can in a trade and do not look back.

Arizona Cardinals

  • Chase Edmonds (1 year, $728,090)

As I said with Darrell Henderson, I am going to say about the next two running backs on the list. Sell these guys while there is hype surrounding them. The perception of Chase Edmonds right now is that he is going to be a starter and I do not see him as much more than he has been during his career.

  • James Conner (1 year, $1,750,000)

James Conner has showed us one thing over the past couple seasons, he can get hurt. I love the story and what Conner has overcome, but at this point I am selling him to someone who still believes in him.

  • DeAndre Hopkins (4 years, $27,250,000)

DeAndre Hopkins is starting to get towards the backend of his career at 29 years old and is much better served on a contending roster. The issue with moving Hopkins is his massive contract. My advice would be to seek out an expensive player who is nowhere near Hopkins’s level, trade Hopkins for the bad, expensive player and demand draft capital in return

HOLD

Seattle Seahawks

  • Rashaad Penny (2 years, $2,691,360)

No one knows what Rashaad Penny can be as a NFL player. Penny has been hurt his entire career and has never had any type of opportunity because of it. If you have Penny hold onto him and the second he starts producing, I would sell him. Owning Penny would be way to nerve wracking for me at this point in his career.

  • Travis Homer (2 years, $665,704)

Travis Homer is a Hold because of the injury history of Rashaad Penny. If you have Homer hold onto him. If Penny is healthy, you can drop him. If Penny goes down again to injury you can sell Homer to the Chris Carson owner as a cheap handcuff.

  • Freddie Swain (4 years, $856,103)

I talk about lottery tickets all the time in my articles and Freddie Swain is a perfect example of just that. I do not honestly see Swain making much of an impact but if Gerald Everett or D’Wayne Eskridge fails to impress, we could see Swain get significant playing time.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Tyler Higbee (3 years, $7,250,000)

Tyler Higbee has flashed massive potential at times throughout his short career. The Rams let Gerald Everett walk in free agency and the time is now for Tyler Higbee. As a Higbee owner, I am holding to see if he can live up to his potential.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Wayne Gallman (1 year, $990,000)

I love lottery tickets in Kyle Shanahan coached backfields. The running game in San Francisco has been one of the best and most efficient since Shanahan took over in the Bay Area. Gallman looked solid in relief for Saquon Barkley last season and could find himself in a big role with the 49ers if things break the right way. Hold Gallman and see if anything comes to be.

  • Richie James (1 year, $634,143)

Do you remember the Richie James game last season? I know I do. The 49ers have the top two receivers on their roster set in stone, but the 3rd spot is up for grabs and that’s where James comes in. The other factor I love about James is that both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have had trouble with injuries in the past.

  • Jalen Hurd (2 years, $1,069,920)

Jalen Hurd is an absolute flier at this point but could end up in the 3rd receiver spot I just mentioned with Richie James. The 49ers took Hurd in the 3rd round a few years back and have not given up on him. If Kyle Shanahan believes, I do too.

Arizona Cardinals

  • A.J. Green (1 year, $6,000,000)

At this point in his career, it is safe to say A.J. Green is washed up. Green looked pathetic with the Bengals last season. If you still have him on your roster for whatever reason I would either hold onto him or cut him. Who knows, Green blows up early and nets decent value in a trade. It is the NFL where anything can happen.

  • Andy Isabella (2 years, $1,157,469)

I was optimistic for Andy Isabella coming out of college and he has let me down royally. If you have Isabella, I will hold him at this point and hope that he remembers how to play football again.

CONCLUSION

As we near the end of this series I can only get more excited, and it is not because the series is almost finished. Each week that passes means another week closer to the NFL season starting. If you are a rebuilding owner who would like to talk about some of the moves you have made, please feel free to contact me on Twitter. The last reminder I have for all of you rebuilding owners out there, is that the time to trade is now! Have a wonderful week and as always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

How to Draft (and Not to Draft) Your First Dynasty Owner Team

By Steven Van Tassell

After spending the past five weeks discussing the first-ever Dynasty Owner Tiers, I wanted to change things up this week and write an article solely devoted to helping all of the new Dynasty Owners out there with the most important task at the start of their Dynasty Owner career – their first start-up draft.

Everyone has their first Dynasty Owner draft, and it can be a daunting task. One of the members of my Beta league commented after our 2020 league draft that it was “the hardest draft I have ever been in. I was exhausted after it was done.” Any dynasty league draft can be a lot of work to determine who you want to draft, who’s projected to do well this year (and in the future), keeping track of your own roster and what positions you need, who’s still available, bye weeks, etc. What Dynasty Owner does is add contracts and salaries on top of all of that and make you stay under a salary cap ($127.75 million for 2021).

Those of you new to Dynasty Owner might not believe that it’s true. Especially if you’ve participated in dynasty league drafts before. My first dynasty league draft was an auction with a cap on how much you could bid overall on salaries. I thought keeping track of that was difficult, but Dynasty Owner was even harder. Participating in mock drafts will help and I urge you to do as many of those as you can, but unless you are mock drafting with a dozen active Dynasty Owners and not computer autodrafting, it’s not the same thing as your first Dynasty Owner draft.

Going about your first Dynasty Owner draft in the same manner as you would a “regular” dynasty league draft is a mistake. In the NFL and Dynasty Owner, it’s all about maximizing the value of the players on your roster. Having Aaron Rodgers and his $33.5 million salary would have been great in 2020, as he led Dynasty Owner with 517.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, for only $5.3 million in salary, Dynasty Owners could have had Josh Allen and his 516.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. However, the team with Allen would also have $28.2 million more left to spend on the rest of their Dynasty Owner roster than the team with Rodgers.

If you forget about value and just focus on points, you won’t be the first person to make that mistake. I’m here to help you avoid that scenario and be able to compete with experienced Dynasty Owners in your first draft. Earlier this off-season, I did a series of articles looking at how 2020 Dynasty Owner league winners drafted their teams and encourage all new Dynasty Owners to read those articles. These articles are based on a thorough analysis of all 2020 Dynasty Owner leagues in every type of league (Beta, For the Love of the Game, $600 Cash Prize pool and $1,200 Cash Prize pool):

  • How to Draft a Dynasty Owner Championship Team – Part I
  • How to Draft a Dynasty Owner Championship Team – Part II
  • How to Draft a Dynasty Owner Championship Team – Part III
  • How Many Quarterbacks and Kickers Should I Draft?
  • How Much of the Salary Cap Should I Use in the Draft?
  • How Much of the Salary Cap Should I Use in the Draft? – Part II
  • League Winners and How They Used the Salary Cap
  • League Winners Salary Cap Usage Versus Average Teams

In these articles, there are findings about how Dynasty Owner League Winners drafted in comparison to the rest of the members of their League. Some findings contradicted suggestions that I had made before the 2020 start-up drafts took place and some were new. Many of the other analyses in those articles were inconclusive and didn’t come up with any broad findings applicable to a wide range of League Winners. Two of the main highlights were:

  • Dynasty Owners who drafted players with lower salaries in the first round were more likely to win their League title than those who drafted higher salary players.
  • It is not necessary to outspend the other teams in your League to win. League Winners were actually more likely to be in the bottom half of spending in their individual league

With these findings in hand, let’s look at a few examples of how to draft and, more importantly, not to draft your first Dynasty Owner team. There won’t be player recommendations contained in this article, instead, it’s all about using the salary cap and player value to your advantage.

All 2021 projections come from Rotowire and are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

All 2021 Dynasty Owner ADP and fantasy points projections were accurate as of the morning of August 11th.

A Look at Two Different Potential Dynasty Drafts

There are any number of ways that fantasy football managers can go about drafting their team. I firmly believe that for every 12-team Dynasty Owner draft, there are 12 different draft strategies. Despite what some analysts will tell you, there really is no magic formula since there are too many things out of your control when drafting.

However, if you go into your Dynasty Owner draft looking at consensus “regular” dynasty league ADP from 2021 drafts, you’re going about it the wrong way. Here is an example of a “regular” dynasty league draft from the #1 draft position using consensus ADP, 2021 salaries and projected 2021 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. We’ll call this Team X.

RoundADPPlayerPosition2021 SalaryProjected 2021 Points
11Christian McCaffreyRB$16,015,875371.3
223Darren WallerTE$7,450,000265.5
325J.K. DobbinsRB$1,432,359269.7
447Cooper KuppWR$15,750,000268.8
549Chris GodwinWR$15,983,000263.5
670Chase ClaypoolWR$1,654,156250.2
771Russell WilsonQB$35,000,000448.9
    $93,285,3902,137.9

Personally, I believe Team X has a solid start for a “regular” dynasty team. Team X has a full complement of starters that you need in Dynasty Owner (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX) minus the kicker position. The starting RBs are 22 and 25 years old and none of the receivers (WR and TE) are over 28 years old. Only QB Russell Wilson is over 30, but he’s not really “over the hill” at age 32 and has not missed a game in his nine-year NFL career. He’s also finished as QB5 (2020), QB3 (2019) and QB9 (2018) in the past three years using the Dynasty Owner scoring system and is projected as QB7 in 2021.

However, the problem is that Team X spent a lot of salary drafting Christian McCaffrey first. They also only have around $34.465 million to fill out the remainder of its roster. That’s 18 Bench and Practice Squad players, including a backup QB, left to draft.

In comparison, here’s an example of a Dynasty Owner draft from the #1 draft position using Dynasty Owner ADP, 2021 salaries and projected 2021 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Let’s call this Team Z.

RoundADPPlayerPosition2021 SalaryProjected 2021 Points
11.6Jonathan TaylorRB$1,957,287283.0
226.8Kyle PittsTE$8,227,624208.8
327.1D’Andre SwiftRB$2,134,728276.8
444.1Davante AdamsWR$14,500,000330.2
546.3Trey SermonRB$1,218,234216.2
684.0Courtland SuttonWR$1,710,480234.3
785.4Ryan TannehillQB$29,500,000426.9
    $59,248,3531,976.2

While Team Z is projected to score 161.7 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points than the “regular” dynasty team, it still has a full complement of Dynasty Owner starters (minus the kicker position, of course). All three of the RBs are age 22, Adams is the same age as Kupp and Waller, while Tannehill is just one year older (33) than Wilson.

A solid start, but a couple of spots, WR2 (Sutton) and FLEX (Sermon), could be shored up. Fortunately, because Team Z has $68.5 million left under the salary cap, they can easily afford and are likely to be able to acquire the following player to upgrade their FLEX position over Trey Sermon.

RoundADPPlayerPosition2021 SalaryProjected 2021 Points
8102.8Mike EvansWR$16,500,000266.0
    $75,748,353 

The addition of Mike Evans for $16.5 million and adding him to the Starting lineup of the Dynasty Owner roster above still leaves Team Z with slightly over $52 million to spend on the remainder of its roster and projected to score 2,026.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with Evans in place of Sermon, or “only” 111.9 points less.

To summarize, at this stage, Team Z has one more player, spent $17.5 million less in salary and projected to score only about 7.0 fewer points per game.

Team2021 SalariesProjected 2021 Points
X – “Regular” dynasty$93,285,3902,137.9
Z – Dynasty Owner$75,748,3532,026.0

With only $34.465 million to fill out the remainder of its roster, Team X has a difficult path left in their draft as they still needs an entire Bench and Practice Squad plus a Starting kicker. The difference between drafting the “regular” dynasty consensus #1 pick McCaffrey first versus the Dynasty Owner consensus #1 pick (Jonathan Taylor) is most of the difference in remaining salary and a good argument for drafting “value” with your first pick.

What Not to Do (2020 Version)

This example of how not to draft your Dynasty Owner start-up team comes from my own experience last year. I was in a league and almost everyone in it hadn’t played Dynasty Owner the year before. However, everyone in the league has tremendous knowledge of the NFL, dynasty fantasy football, etc., and in one particular case, the lack of Dynasty Owner experience clearly showed as the draft moved along. The Owner was clearly going with a “Stars and Scrubs” philosophy and likely ignoring the salary cap ramifications of the roster that he was drafting. Here are the first five picks for this team, which will be referred to as Team F from now on.

RoundPickPlayerPosition2020 Salary
19Alvin KamaraRB$964,443
216Davante AdamsWR$14,500,000
333Josh AllenQB$5,295,760
440DK MetcalfWR$1,146,513
557Todd GurleyRB$6,000,000
    $27,906,716

Keep in mind that all of the salaries listed are for the 2020 season. In terms of salary, Team F ranked in the middle of the pack at $27.91 million in salaries through the first five picks. They went for a value pick in the first round (Alvin Kamara) and didn’t load up on big salaries. All in all, it seems like a pretty solid start. However, the salary cap appeared not to be consulted for Team F’s next three draft picks.

RoundPickPlayerPosition2020 Salary
664Julio JonesWR$22,000,000
781Russell WilsonQB$35,000,000
888Le’Veon BellRB$13,125,000
9105Sony MichelRB$2,406,674
10112Jonnu SmithTE$776,572
    $73,308,246

With just three picks (Jones, Wilson and Bell), Team F spent over $70 million, or nearly 64% of the $110 million salary cap for 2020. After the first ten picks, Team F had exceeded $100 million in salaries ($101,214,962) and spent over $20 million more than the second place team in spending (Team Y with $81,107,064). Since $110 million was $110 million salary cap for 2020 was for a 25-player draft, Team F only had $8.785 million to spend on 15 players, or just around $585,667 per player, for the rest of their draft.

Since this draft was held in the middle of August, some players had opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns and had their salaries for the 2020 season assigned as $150,000. Out of the five players drafted in this league’s draft with $150,000 salaries, Team F drafted three of them (Damien Williams, Devin Funchess and Marquise Lee). That means, Team F had three players who were automatically not going to give them any Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the entire 2020 season.

In addition to spending too much, too early, Team F also made the mistake of using almost all of their $110 million salary cap during the draft as the chart below shows. Here’s the league salary situation after the draft (in draft order) along with after the first five and first ten picks:

TeamTop 5 PicksTop 10 PicksAll 25 Picks
Team J$32,655,794$60,543,353$109,841,235
Team R$6,179,809$45,676,281$91,067,685
Team P$46,322,490$65,443,695$102,569,131
Team T$31,924,897$64,713,394$106,197,584
Team A$27,119,918$75,575,718$107,201,237
Team C$30,681,851$47,120,660$108,465,903
Team S$8,353,418$23,648,825$104,544,978
Team V$28,030,028$58,171,664$102,611,258
Team F$27,906,716$101,214,962$109,797,716
Team Y$19,423,892$81,107,064$105,920,673
Team D$14,001,295$26,492,585$85,797,466
Team Q$50,452,958$77,132,314$100,464,522

By drafting so close to the $110 million salary cap, Team F left themselves with little flexibility for post-draft moves. In Dynasty Owner, each team drafts 25 players, but can have a 30-player roster. By only having a little over $200,000 left after the draft, Team F was stuck with their roster as is unless they dropped a player to add someone else.

If Team F wanted to drop someone, it would cost them either an amnesty provision or 25% of the total remaining salary for the player’s contract in Dynasty Dollars. For example, Team F drafted Qadree Ollison (RB – ATL) who had a 3-year, $707,891 salary for a total $2,123,673. In order to drop Ollison, Team F would have had to spend $530,918 in Dynasty Dollars to shed him from their roster. At that point, Team F would have had $910,175 in salary cap room to bid on another player in the Free Agent Auction.

Despite drafting the QBs (Allen), RB1 (Kamara) and WR1 (Adams), Team F finished in third place and lost in the first round of the playoffs. For the record, the team that spent the least overall in the draft and second least through the first ten picks (Team D) was the League Winner.

What Not to Do Versus What to Do (2021 Version)

For 2021, let’s look at how two Dynasty Owner teams drafting next to each other approached their 2021 start-up draft.

RoundTeamPlayerPosition2021 SalaryProjected 2021 Points
1AKyler MurrayQB$8,914,504473.8
1BPatrick MahomesQB$45,000,000524.2
2BTrey LanceQB$8,526,319369.2
2AAntonio GibsonRB$1,233,159279.0
3AJoe MixonRB$12,000,000269.0
3BAustin EkelerRB$6,125,000280.5
4BGeorge KittleTE$15,000,000263.5
4ATyreek HillWR$18,000,000328.3

After the first four picks, Team B has spent over $34 million more in salaries, but is only projected to score 87.3 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Team2021 SalariesProjected 2021 Points
A$40,147,6631350.1
B$74,651,3191437.4

However, since Team B drafted QBs with their first two picks (Mahomes and Lance), they won’t even get the full compliment of Lance’s points from the Bench, just 25% of his points.

One change in Team B’s draft could make a big difference in their salaries, but with minimal impact on their 2021 projected points. That change would be to draft Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) and his $6,644,688 salary in place of Mahomes. Even though Herbert has a better ADP than Mahomes (8.3 vs. 24.4), he was available for Team B to draft in the first round.

RoundTeamPlayerPosition2021 SalaryProjected 2021 Points
1BJustin HerbertQB$6,644,688461.8

With that change, we see a dramatic difference in salaries as Team B actually has spent less than Team A at this point, while maintaining a slight advantage in projected points.

Team2021 SalariesProjected 2021 Points
A$40,147,6631350.1
B$36,296,0071375.0

Team B continued their high-spending ways and was considerably ahead of Team A in spending after the first five, ten and fifteen picks as well as only having $15,880 in salary left after the draft, compared to just over $4.8 million for Team A.

TeamTop 5 PicksTop 10 PicksTop 15 PicksAll 25 Picks
Team A$67,397,663$74,024,527$85,346,016$122,942,288
Team B$75,303,013$103,752,403$121,803,299$127,723,412

In fact, Team B was so close to the salary cap after its first 15 picks that they could only draft players costing less than $700,000 in salary for all of their final ten draft picks. This included drafting three kickers in the final three rounds who are unlikely to help their team (Cole Hedlund, Ty Long and Sergio Castillo).

In contrast, Team A had enough salary left to draft a projected Top 20 WR (Adam Thielen and his $16.05 million salary) in Round 20. While Team B could end up having a better 2021 season than Team A, Team B painted themselves into a corner at the end of the draft by spending too much of their salary cap in the first ten to fifteen rounds. Team A did this while spending in the middle of the pack (sixth) in their league, compared to Team B who spent more than all but one other team.

Conclusion

Looking at a couple of real Dynasty Owner drafts, we see that Team F in 2020 and Team B in 2021 both didn’t draft for value at the beginning of their drafts and ended up having severe salary cap restrictions on the players who they could draft by the end. As a result, both teams are very shallow and ended up with several players at the end who could not help (Team F in 2020) or are highly unlikely to help (Team B in 2021) their teams. In contrast, Team A was able to pick up a Top 20 WR due to their savvy salary cap usage.

Hopefully all Dynasty Owners found this article helpful in getting ready for their 2021 start-up draft. Dynasty Owner has plenty of other great content to help you draft your dynasty. We can also provide guidance as you continue to tweak your roster after your rookie or start-up draft is over so you can win your league. My articles and videos to get you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team are being released on Wednesdays. Keep an eye out for new articles from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owner writers as well. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is doing a deep dive on individual teams that you can check out on Mondays, while Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) looks at how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Fridays. All of the articles will be released at 1 PM (Eastern) with videos and podcast released at 3 PM (Eastern).

Please read all of their articles and follow all three of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Hopefully this article is helpful for everyone who has a 2021 start-up draft coming soon, and at least interesting for those of you who have already drafted or have an established team. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

New York Giants Contract Breakdown

Welcome Dynasty Owners.  Thank you for tuning into another Monday Contract Breakdown Article.  Last week I started talking about the NFC East as I wrote about the Dallas Cowboys.  I also touched on the Chase for the Ring and how unique of an event it is.  Today, I’m going to break down how the NFC East shaped up in 2020.  Then I will break down a single player on the Giants’ team and what that player means for Dynasty Owners.

Division Breakdown

The NFC East was a rough division, and that is putting it as nice as I can.  The division leader (Washington Football Team) finished with a 7-9 record.  This makes for only the third time in recent memory that an NFL team finished below .500 and won their division.  The division had only 23 wins total on the season.  That makes them the worst division, by far.  The second worst division (AFC South) had 27 combined wins.  Here is how the division broke down…

 RecordSeason Outcome
Football Team7-9Eliminated, Wild Card
Giants6-10Eliminated, Regular Season
Cowboys6-10Eliminated, Regular Season
Eagles4-11-1Eliminated, Regular Season

As I mentioned, the Washington Football Team won the NFC East with a 7-9 record.  Despite losing two of their last three games, the Football Team squeaked into the playoffs.  Highlights of their season include Antonio Gibson ($1,233,159) and J.D. McKissic ($1,635,000) finishing as Top 20 running backs, Terry McLaurin ($961,918) finishing as a Top 20 wide receiver, and Logan Thomas ($3,072,500) finishing as TE4.  I have this offense taking a step forward in 2021 with Ryan Fitzpatrick ($10,000,000) leading the team.  Fitz is a more than capable quarterback who is not afraid to get the ball to his best players nor is he afraid to stretch the field.  I will talk about the offense as a whole when we get to Washington’s article, but I am very excited to see how it works together.  They are my bold prediction to repeat as division winners.

If we’re looking for a positive spin to the Giants’ 2020 season, here it is… they started 2020 with a 1-7 record.  Over the next eight games, they finished 5-3.  This is something to build on, and there is no doubt this brings some hope to the Giants’ 2021 season.  The Saquon Barkley ($7,798,688) injury was a nearly insurmountable task to overcome.  I compare it to the Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) injury in a few ways.  Both players are the workhorse back for their respective teams when they are healthy.  Both players missed the overwhelming majority of the 2020 season due to injury.  Both players look to rebound in 2021, and both are projected to be Top 10 running backs in terms of total points.  However, there is a major difference between the two that I want to point out, and this is something I have pointed out in the past.  Saquon’s injury (while incredibly devastating) provided more closure and an opportunity to move on when compared to CMC’s injury.  Saquon tore his right ACL in Week 2 against the Bears.  When a player tears an ACL, that is it.  There is not really any speculation anymore.  That player is going to be out for the rest of that season.  Dynasty Owners were therefore able to make plans and either trade or continue to roster Barkley in anticipation for the 2021 season.  CMC’s injury was much different.  While McCaffrey essentially played in two more games than Saquon, his status was constantly up in the air, and that left all fantasy managers annoyed and stuck in a limbo situation.  This made for a fantasy headache.  Early reports said that Barkley may not be ready for the start of the NFL season. Now, they are reporting that he will be back by Week 3. At a minimum, he will miss valuable training camp and preseason time.  The Giants’ organization has even said that they are not going to rush him back until he is ready.  Keep an eye out for more recovery reports as the season draws closer.

Much like the Giants and Panthers, the Dallas Cowboys were dealt a very tough hand in 2020.  Their star quarterback, Dak Prescott ($40,000,000), played only four and a half games before suffering a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle.  Dak was cruising to at least a Top 3 quarterback finish prior to the injury.  Here were his fantasy points through the first four games…

22.3

49.3

39.2

50.3

He was at an unreal pace, and it’s a shame we didn’t get to witness what could have been one of the greatest seasons a quarterback has ever had.  I expect Dallas to compete with Washington and New York for the division title.

The Philadelphia Eagles finished last in the NFC East.  They actually weren’t in the bottom of many team categories in 2020.  They were middle of the road as far as defensive efficiency goes.  They also weren’t terrible in terms of rushing yards per game.  (They finished 10th)  The problem lied with the passing production.  Philadelphia was 28th in the NFL in passing yards per game (207.9).  For reference, the Chiefs led the league at 301.9 passing yards per game.  Yes, the Eagles had very few established pass catchers in 2020.  They also had inconsistency at the quarterback position which turned into Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292) starting at the end of the season.  It also resulted in the Carson Wentz ($32,000,000) trade to Indianapolis.  All in all, I think the offense will take some baby steps forward, but I do expect them to finish last in the division for the second year in a row.

Now that we are done with the division breakdown, let’s talk about a few New York Giants…

Contract Breakdown

Who do you think finished highest in 2020 among all New York Giants’ wide receivers?  The answer is Sterling Shepard with 162.5 fantasy points.  How about this question…who do you think is projected to finish highest in 2021 among all New York Giants’ wide receivers?  The answer shouldn’t be too surprising as it’s the Giants’ new acquisition, Kenny Golladay.  Second is Sterling Shepard and third is actually the rookie Kadarius Toney.  Finishing out the wide receiver group is Darius Slayton.  So, the question begs to be answered…which of these four is the greatest value?  I think it’s clear that Golladay is the overwhelming favorite to finish the 2021 season with the most fantasy points, but with an $18,000,000 cap hit, is he the first Giants’ wide receiver that should be drafted in Dynasty Owner?  Let’s talk about it…

 Salary2020 DD/PT2021 DD/PT
Kenny Golladay$18,000,000$273,556$77,922
Sterling Shephard$10,250,000$63,077$60,294
Kadarius Toney$3,429,877N/A$21,504
Darius Slayton$688,497$4,918$4,352

Here is how all four of the Giants’ receivers stack up next to each other in terms of salary and Dynasty Dollars per Point (DD/PT) for both the 2020 season and the 2021 projected season.  It’s no surprise that the drastically cheaper contracts are the bigger value for DD/PT.  In this case, it would appear that Slayton is the biggest value.  That may be a true statement, but that doesn’t mean that I would pick him first over any of these receivers.  On the contrary, I would rank them in this order for the 2021 season…

  1. Golladay
  2. Shepard
  3. Slayton
  4. Toney

Even with the contracts included, I want Golladay for this year.  As I have stated numerous times in the past, I will pay for wide receivers especially if they are late values.  This is how I rank them past the 2021 season…

  1. Golladay
  2. Toney
  3. Shepard
  4. Slayton

Golladay still takes the top spot because he is only 27 years old, and he will outscore the other three players by quite a bit over the next four seasons.  After that, I will give the edge to Toney due to his youth and the general upside that he brings.

I want to thank everyone for reading and for watching my video breakdowns on YouTube.  Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns.  I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Thank you all.  Take care and be safe.

TheJerk