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Buy, Sell, and Hold – NFC South Stock Watch

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By: Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL)

As we continue to inch closer to the NFL season now is the time rebuilding owners need to be on top of every pre-season performance. If you missed some of the action from Week 1, no worries we have you covered here at Dynasty Owner. In Week 1 we saw all five of the 1st round quarterbacks see their first NFL action and all looked good stepping on to the field for their first time as a pro. Trevor Lawrence went head-to-head with the Cleveland Browns and looked solid after a slow start. Lawrence went 6-9 for 71 yards, with no touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Lawrence did get sacked twice and had a fumble, but I expect those things to lessen as he gets more experience. I know it is just one week, but Lawrence looks to be as advertised. Trey Lance had an up and down day after throwing for 5-14 for 128 yards, and a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lance did have three drops from his receivers, but he was sacked four times and nearly threw two interceptions but capped off his day with an 80-yard bomb for a touchdown. Justin Fields started off slow in his debut but really turned thing on after halftime, finishing the day 14-20, for 142 yards, and a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins. Fields said after the game that the NFL seemed slow to him which must be a great sign moving forward for his owners. Zach Wilson made his pre-season debut for the New York Jets against the New York Giants and had a decent outing. Wilson did not make any spectacular plays, but he did not have any horrible plays either. If he keeps this up, Jets fans will be very happy. Finally, we have Mac Jones for the New England Patriots. Jones started his NFL debut by going 13-19 for 87 yards with no interceptions, or touchdowns. Jones looked comfortable and showed that he will fit in just fine with the Patriots in the future.

In this article I will be taking the Dynasty Owner relevant players from the NFC South and placing them into three separate categories called Buy, Sell, and Hold and all players will be looked at through a rebuilding owner’s eyes. The players in the Buy category are players you want to build your team around and will almost always be cheap and young. The players in the Sell category are players who will not be as productive in a few years, when your rebuild is ending and your team is ready to compete for a championship. The players in the Hold category will be players who do not have a clear role, players that are injured, or a player whose trade value is just too low to move on from currently. If you happen to have a differing opinion on some of these players, I would love to hear about it on Twitter!

BUY

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chris Godwin (1 year, $15,983,000)

Chris Godwin’s stocked has dropped quite a bit since this point last season and I understand why. In 2020, Godwin battled injuries causing him to miss chunks of time throughout the season. All of that said I do love Godwin in 2021 and beyond, and will be buying Godwin if I can afford his salary. Godwin will likely be the number 1 guy somewhere other than Tampa in 2022, but his price will increase from this year’s salary.

  • Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3 years, $1,188,999)

One year ago, Ke’Shawn Vaughn was one of the hot names heading into the start of the season. I never fully bought in on Vaughn last year because of the presence of Ronald Jones in Tampa, followed by the addition of Leonard Fournette. After a lackluster rookie season the time to buy Vaughn is now. He will not do much this season, but Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are both free agents come season’s end and it could mean a huge role for Vaughn if he is able to gain the coaching staff’s trust throughout 2021. The best part about Vaughn is you will be able to get him for a fraction of what he cost last year.

  • Tyler Johnson (3 years, $902,355)

Every time Tyler Johnson stepped on the field in 2020, he made play after play. Johnson will still come cheap because of the talent ahead of him in Tampa but he is an excellent long-term play. He has a knack for making tough catches and should blow up when finally given the chance to play in a full-time role. If you are buying him, you must be patient.

  • Jaelon Darden (4 years, $1,044,476)

If I had to choose between Tyler Johnson and Jaelon Darden, I am taking Johnson every time but that does not mean you should not target Darden on your rebuilding roster. These two young Tampa receivers are going to need time on your Practice Squad but should pay dividends in a few years when you are ready to compete. Plus, Tom Brady will just be getting into his prime when these guys are ready!

  • O.J. Howard (1 year, $6,013,000)

O.J. Howard was nearly as hyped as Kyle Pitts coming out of college and just has not panned out. Howard is still one of the most talented tight ends in football who started to show some life in 2020. If Howard takes another step forward, he could be an absolute steal.

New Orleans Saints

  • Tre’Quan Smith (1 year, $855,131)

The news around Michael Thomas is extremely concerning for the Saints, but it may be good news for rebuilding owners. Outside of the Saints turning into the Baltimore Ravens, you will get value out of Tre’Quan Smith in 2021. I would recommend selling Smith after a hot start to the season.

  • Marquez Callaway (2 years, $765,000)

Marquez Callaway is one of my favorite buys of the off-season. I was expecting Callaway to have a solid year with Michael Thomas in the picture and am expecting much more if Thomas misses an extended period. Callaway is a big physical receiver who can win one-on-one matchups. The sky is the limit for Callaway if Winston wins the quarterback battle.

  • Deonte Harris (1 year, $588,333)

Deonte Harris is a complete dart throw at this point, but as a rebuilding owner you should have several of these on your roster. Harris is a small, quick, and shifty receiver who has the skillset to excel in a Sean Payton offense. The time to buy Harris is now as he was just hit with a D.U.I. and will cost next to nothing to acquire.

  • Adam Trautman (3 years, $1,124,851)

With tight end Jared Cook leaving town it leaves a massive hole at tight end in the New Orleans offense. Adam Trautman is an extremely talented player out of the University of Dayton and was liked enough to be drafted in the 3rd round. The only thing I am negative on Trautman about is the fact I feel he is getting his opportunity a year too soon. I am buying Trautman, but a little patience will likely be needed.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Javian Hawkins (3 years, $810,000)

I have mentioned this numerous times recently and I will say it again, the Atlanta Falcons have one of the most wide-open running back rooms in the NFL. I love what Mike Davis was able to do last season in place of Christian McCaffrey, but he tailed off bad at the end of the year. If one of these young guns steps up for Atlanta, we could see more of a shared workload than initially thought.

  • Caleb Huntley (3 years, $810,000)

I am not particularly sure why, but I just get the feeling this kid will succeed somewhere in the NFL. Huntley was an absolute beast at Ball State where he put up impressive numbers throughout his college career. Call it a bold prediction but I see Huntley ending up as the number 2 guy in Atlanta. BUY, BUY, BUY!!

  • Calvin Ridley (1 year, $2,275,178)

Calvin Ridley is one of the best young building blocks in all of Dynasty Owner. The major negative buying Ridley is that he is going to be expensive next year when he gets a new deal, and when you trade for him. Even giving up assets and salary cap space, I still see Ridley being worth building around. I see plenty of scenarios where Ridley is the number 1 receiver in the NFL this season. The main knock on Ridley was he could not do it without Julio Jones. Well, he proved that theory to be massively wrong in 2020.

  • Frank Darby (4 years, $921,125)

I have Frank Darby on here for two reasons: the first being I like his talent; the second is because I am not a believer in the rest of the Falcons’ receiving room. While I do not see Darby as a huge contributor this season, I can see him building trust and making a role for himself come 2022.

  • Kyle Pitts (4 years, $8,227,624)

Kyle Pitts is one of the best tight ends to come out of college football in quite some time, if not ever, but the hype may be a bit much for a rookie tight end. I am sure Pitts will turn out to be a great tight end but if you are acquiring him do not be upset if he is not a stud instantly. I do not care how good he is unless the Falcons use him as receiver, there will be growing pains because of the position he plays.

Carolina Panthers

  • P.J. Walker (1 year, $782,500)

I must be honest; I am not exactly a P.J. Walker fan but after what I watched during the Panthers’ first preseason game I just might be now. Walker has done nothing but win and ball out every time he steps on to a football field from the NCAA, XFL, and now the NFL. I know it is just pre-season but remember when Dak Prescott appeared out of nowhere in the pre-season? Could he be Prescott lite?

  • Terrace Marshall (4 years, $1,432,372)

I am torn on how to feel about the prospect of Terrace Marshall. I love the talent and the fact he landed with his former coordinator Joe Brady. If Robby Anderson or D.J. Moore leaves Carolina next season the sky could be the limit for this kid. I see flashes of Chase Claypool watching Marshall play.

  • Tommy Tremble (4 years, $1,231,608)

I have not looked a ton into Tommy Tremble before doing this article so my opinion may be a bit flawed on him. After everything I have seen, I would compare Tremble to Jonnu Smith, an excellent blocker who is extremely athletic. Like most young tight ends, you will have to wait a year or two for Tremble to really get going.

  • Dan Arnold (2 years, $3,000,000)

Dan Arnold is by far the best bet for production on the Panthers at the tight end position in 2021. What I am doing with Arnold is buying him cheap now and hoping he has a great start to the season so I can move him for significantly more. The tight end position will likely be ugly again this season, meaning people will pay up for the ones who produce.

  • D.J. Moore (1 year, $2,792,829)

I hope someday our fearless leader Tim will get to meet D.J. Moore in person. All jokes aside, Moore is a fantastic young receiver to have as a building block on your rebuilding roster. Moore is also in line for a significant raise next season so be sure to plan for that.

  • Chuba Hubbard (4 years, $1,048,294)

We all witnessed that Christian McCaffrey is human in 2020. If for some reason that were to happen again, Chuba Hubbard could be a league winner. Hubbard started off fantastic in the pre-season and looks like a solid stash. You will need to be patient with Hubbard with Christian McCaffrey in front of him but when your team is ready to win Hubbard should be ready to compete for a starting job.

SELL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Tom Brady (1 year, $25,000,000)

I know I joke around a lot about Tom Brady playing until he is 80 years old but at some point, Father Time must catch up to him. If you are heading into a rebuild, you have no business rostering Tom Brady at this point in his career. It will take some cap wizardry to get a deal done but it is possible. I once traded Julio Jones ($22,000,000) to an owner against the cap.

  • Ronald Jones (1 year, $1,767,977)

The debate between Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette has been brewing for months now on Twitter. I am here to tell you to sell both now regardless of your roster situation. Currently both guys have solid trade value but as soon as one of them take the lead job, while the other’s value will be gone.

  • Leonard Fournette (1 year, $3,250,000)

As I mentioned above, it is time to move on from “Playoff Lenny.” Fournette is not worth holding as a rebuilding owner at this point in his career. The Tampa backfield is filled with uncertainty on top of everything else Fournette has working against him.

  • Giovani Bernard (1 year, $1,212,500)

I do not think there should be any interest in Giovani Bernard but for some reason there will be. You should be able to get a 3rd round pick out of him right now with everyone believing he will be Tampa’s version of James White. I am moving him before the season starts if possible!

  • Mike Evans (3 years, $16,500,000)

Mike Evans is a great player, but the future of his quarterback situation is in doubt on a rebuilding timeline. Evans battled injuries all last season and I am more comfortable selling rather than keeping him around for the long haul at his current price. Let the contenders have Evans for their championship run.

  • Rob Gronkowski (1 year, $8,000,000)

At 32 years old playing with an aging Tom Brady, it is time to sell the great Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has afforded us with a ton of great memories over the years, but in Dynasty Owner you must think with your head and not your heart…. I am talking to you Steve Van Tassell!

New Orleans Saints

  • Jameis Winston (1 year, $5,500,000)

While there is certainly a case to buy Jameis Winston right now, I just cannot fully get on board. Acquiring Winston will cost assets, and no one knows who will be under center in New Orleans. Even if Winston does win the job and he plays well, he will cost a pretty penny heading into 2022. Do what I did and sell Jameis Winston.

  • Taysom Hill (1 year, $12,159,000)

As just mentioned with Jameis Winston the same can be said about Taysom Hill. If Hill wins the job and plays well, he will get a massive deal, but you are also trading away assets for someone who may never be a consistent starter in the NFL. If I am betting on one of the two, it’s Winston and I do not care much for that bet.

  • Alvin Kamara (5 years, $15,000,000)

At $15,000,000 heading into his second contract, Alvin Kamara is a sell for rebuilding owners. Kamara is a Top 3 Dynasty Owner running back in terms of pure production, but he may not be around long after you start winning. Kamara was moved in one of my leagues the other day, below is the trade.

The Vermont Teddy B Company – Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, Anthony Schwartz, and Donovan Peoples-Jones.

Henry Hotdog – Melvin Gordon, Cole Kmet, Cole Beasley, Mike Boone, 2022 1st, 2024 2nd.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Matt Ryan (3 years, $30,000,000)

If you are rostering Matt Ryan, you may end up needing to use an amnesty provision to move on from him. I would try to trade him first, but you will have an uphill battle ahead of you. As a rebuilding owner, I am cutting ties before the season starts one way or another.

  • Mike Davis (2 years, $2,750,000)

I can see plenty of scenarios where Mike Davis is not Atlanta’s full time running back come the end of the season and rebuilding owners should be moving on for that reason alone. I am not sure Mike Davis’ value will rise any higher than it is right now as the Falcons full time starter. Cash in on Davis before it is too late.

  • Russell Gage (1 year, $654,049)

I am sure a lot of you reading this are wanting to buy Russell Gage and that is ok. I am not particularly high on Gage, though I do think he will put up decent numbers again this season. I just feel this is going to be peak Gage trade value, which is why I am selling him.

Carolina Panthers

  • Christian McCaffrey (4 years, $16,015,875)

Christian McCaffrey as a Sell hurts my heart more than any other player out of this entire series, but it needs to be done. McCaffrey is undoubtedly one of, if not the best asset in all of fantasy football. I have already put my money where my mouth is and dealt McCaffrey at the end of last season to jump start my rebuild.

  • Robby Anderson (1 year, $10,000,000)

Robby Anderson and Sam Darnold are back together again and while many are giving Anderson a boost, I am saying pump the breaks. While I am very intrigued by Darnold getting away from his potential kryptonite, Adam Gase, I just do not see Anderson having a better season than he did in 2020 unless someone like DeShaun Watson were under center for the Panthers. I have Anderson coming in just a tick lower than his output in 2020 and feel the time to move him is now.

HOLD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antonio Brown (1 year, $3,075,000)

I know this one may seem weird, but I really feel that Antonio Brown can get back into the wide receiver 2 range each week. Tom Brady loved Brown and I am expecting Tampa to pass the ball quite a bit more in 2021 with a fully healthy Brady, who now has a full year under his belt in this offense. If you have Brown, he is not costing you much to hold and if he produces the way I am expecting, he will bring back a 1st round pick no problem.

  • Scotty Miller (2 years, $661,960)

Scotty Miller has flashed at times throughout his short NFL career, but the outlook is bleak for 2021. Miller has three studs in front of him on the depth chart in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown. If you have Miller, you need to be looking at holding him for 2022 and beyond. I would have slotted Miller in the Buy category, but I do not feel the juice is worth the squeeze to go out and trade for him.

New Orleans Saints

  • Michael Thomas (4 years, $19,250,000)

I am not sure there is a bigger disappointment thus far in the off-season than Michael Thomas. Thomas is one of the most gifted wideouts in all of football and just does not seem all that thrilled to be in New Orleans. While I do think both sides work things out and we see Thomas on the field with the Saints when healthy, you must hold him until he is back producing, or you will miss out on a lot of value.

  • Latavius Murray (2 years, $3,600,000)

If Murray had stepped into Kamara’s role last season and shined, he would be an instant sell right now. The issue is he did not look all that great last year and is not bringing much back in a trade now. I am holding onto Murray to see if he can regain form before I try to trade him.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Hayden Hurst (1 year, $2,759,007)

It seems Hayden Hurst just has not been able to catch a break during his short NFL career. In Baltimore, he had Mark Andrews taken in the same draft who became a borderline star, then he has a decent first year in Atlanta and they take generational talent Kyle Pitts in the draft to play ahead of Hurst. I am holding Hurst until I see what happens after his current deal is up.

  • Olamide Zaccheaus (1 year, $586,667)

If you cannot tell by the categories I have them placed in, I like Zaccheaus a little bit more than Gage for the long haul. I do see Gage performing a little bit better overall this season, but I think Zaccheaus starts to take over more towards the end of the season. I am expecting Gage will want more than the Falcons are willing to pay at his contract’s end, leaving Zaccheaus to be the leading candidate for the number 2 spot opposite of Calvin Ridley.

Carolina Panthers

  • David Moore (2 years, $2,375,000)

If you can trick your league mates into thinking this is D.J. Moore than you can move David Moore into the Sell category. I am just kidding of course. In all honesty there may not be much of a market with Terrace Marshall having a great start to the pre-season. I would hold Moore in case Marshall struggles early on.

  • Ian Thomas (1 year, $801,999)

Heading into 2020 I was optimistic for both Ian Thomas and Irv Smith and both let me down tremendously. The Panthers brought a ton of competition in for Thomas now hopefully it will bring out the best in him. Thomas is a Hold until we see how things play out in Carolina.

Conclusion

We are now down to one week left for the series of Buy, Sell, and Hold with the dreaded NFC East the last division left. I saved the worst for last in this series and think I will make this an annual article series. If you guys have any friends, or you yourself is interested in joining Dynasty Owner, now is the time to get setup and practicing your mock drafts as we have just under three weeks to go before, we see real NFL action.

If you are a rebuilding owner who would like to talk about some of the moves you have made, please feel free to contact me on Twitter. I hope you guys enjoyed the article and be sure to check out Steve and Matt’s articles/videos as well on Mondays and Wednesdays. As always good luck on your 2021 Chase for the Ring!

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