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By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Good day Dynasty Owners and boy is it finally good to say, “football is back!” We witnessed many great games this weekend including the opening game of the season, the Cowboys/Buccaneers game. I will break that game down further in my next Thursday Night Football preview article.
If you remember, one of the first articles I wrote last season was titled “Don’t Tilt After One Week”. Well, in keeping with the tradition, I’m going to be writing a similar two-part series over the next couple of weeks. I will discuss either players that I think overperformed or underperformed in the first couple of weeks, and why you shouldn’t overreact to this small sample size. I know it’s not easy. It’s human nature especially after we have built up so much hype throughout the off-season, but I’m here to tell you, “do not tilt after one week.” I will talk about one player from each team, and break all 32 teams into two separate articles. Let’s get into it…
Cardinals
It was an all-around productive game for the Cardinals. Three players (Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and Christian Kirk) had two or more touchdowns. However, I would advise that you don’t worry too much about the lack of production by the running backs. The volume was there for both backs. Chase Edmonds ($728,090) had 12 carries and James Conner ($1,750,000) had 16 carries, but the stout rush defense by the Titans only allowed 116 rushing yards between the two. There will be brighter days ahead for both backs, although it looks like the backfield will be close to a 50/50 split.
Falcons
When you look at the Falcons’ box score, it’s easy to see why there could be panic among Falcons’ Owners. There were poor performances across the board. Matt Ryan, Mike Davis, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Kyle Pitts all had below-average games. I am completely unconcerned with Davis, Ridley, and Pitts. Those three will be the focal point in the offense moving forward. Ryan may leave a little more room for concern due to his age (36) and history of hot and cold streaks.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson had an uncharacteristically bad game against an average defense. He had 235 passing yards, 12 rushes, 86 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 fumbles. The fumbles are by far the most disappointing part of his day. In Dynasty Owner, a fumble is minus 1 point and a lost fumble is worth an additional minus 2 points. In the end, Lamar finished with 19.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP).
Bills
The Bills went up against one of the top defenses in the league so it’s no surprise that they didn’t have the greatest offensive performance. That being said, Josh Allen ($5,295,760) and Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000) still had decent games. It may not be what their Dynasty Owners wanted, but Allen went for 19.9 DOFP and Diggs went for 15.9 DOFP. Again, not the greatest, but they didn’t destroy your winning chances. I have zero concern for either player moving forward especially as they start to play division rivals. My level of concern is much higher for the Buffalo running backs.
Panthers
Most of the Panthers’ top weapons had a very healthy game. Christian McCaffrey was no exception. He posted a line of 21 carries, 98 rushing yards, 9 receptions, 89 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. This was good for 27.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. For CMC, I’m going to make the opposite argument that I usually make in Don’t Tilt articles. I wouldn’t expect this type of performance out of McCaffrey every week.
Now, I understand what most of you are thinking. “CMC has done this for his whole career with this type of volume.” Yes, that is true, but that is kind of my point. I don’t know how much longer he can do it. I believe that he will continue to be one of the most (if not the most) productive running backs in the league, but I would not expect, nor would I want my franchise running back touching the ball 30 times a game for a 17 game season. Expect fantasy greatness, but don’t expect 30 touches every week.
Bears
The fact that Allen Robinson hauled in only 6 receptions in a blowout loss is somewhat disappointing. He saw 11 targets, 6 receptions, 35 yards, and 9.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This is nowhere near what you want from your WR1 that costs you $17,880,000 per year, but there is hope. The biggest hope I see coming is the idea that Justin Fields will probably be starting for the Bears sooner than later. Andy Dalton showed little willingness to move around the pocket or tuck the ball and run. This is exactly what was needed on Sunday Night against a top-tier Rams rushing defense. The fact that not one player tallied more than 45 receiving yards tells me everything I need to know moving forward. This was poor quarterback play against a strong defense. Look for a rebound game against the Bengals next week.
Bengals
Speaking of the Bengals, they had a sensational game on Sunday afternoon. The Bengals had zero turnovers and absolutely dominated the penalty yards against the Vikings. The Vikings had 12 penalties for 116 yards while the Bengals had only 3 penalties for 15 yards. That is a winning formula. It also seems like all the main guys had solid games. In terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, Joe Burrow had 25.2, Joe Mixon had 27.0, Ja’Marr Chase had 20.9 and Tee Higgins had 15.8. The one downside from a fantasy standpoint was Tyler Boyd. Boyd was poised to be the “safe” option among all the wide receivers for the Bengals this year. Well, he only saw 3 receptions for 32 yards. I think this is the way the season will go for the Bengals. It’s likely only two of these receivers will have above-average games each week, and it will not be easy to predict who it will be from week to week. I have my doubts that Burrow can support three top-end wide receivers in the way that Dak Prescott seems to be able to do. Regardless, continue to start Boyd.
Browns
It was a rough ending to a great game for the Browns, but I suppose that’s how it usually ends up when you play the Chiefs. The most disappointing fantasy performance was by Baker Mayfield. While the passing yards were there, the scoring certainly wasn’t. Baker totaled 321 passing yards and 1 interception which was good for 15.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I labeled Baker as a perfect Bench quarterback coming into the 2021 season. He has a low salary ($8,170,745) and middle-of-the-road production. I suppose this performance fits the description. I anticipate more upside games out of Baker with more than the 28 pass attempts he had in Week 1.
Cowboys
I talked about the Cowboys game at length in my Thursday Night Football preview article. As far as I’m concerned, there was only one disappointment in that game, and it was Ezekiel Elliott. I’m sure many of you could guess I’d talk about Zeke. The truth is that Elliot was given only four first half carries. He posted a very disappointing 5.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He was not the focal point of the offense as Dak attempted 58 passes, which makes him currently the league leader. I wish I could say that I’m not concerned about Zeke, but I’m not fully convinced this year will be different than last year. However, I have hope for a few reasons.
First, Zeke should have Dak this whole season which will keep them in more competitive games and give him more scoring opportunities. Second, Dak will not be able to throw 58 times a game and expect to win the majority of the time. They will need to rely on the running game more and that revolves around Zeke. I know it’s not easy seeing a $15,000,000 running back take less than 6 points into Week 2, but please be patient.
Broncos
The most unfortunate part of the Broncos game is that they lost Jerry Jeudy to a high ankle sprain. The injury timeline has yet to be established, but he will be sidelined for a good chunk of the season. The overreaction advice here is not to give up on Jeudy. I feel this advice is important especially when we look at him from a Dynasty Owner perspective. Jeudy still has three years left on his contract that is worth $3,798,243 per year. Even if he misses half the season, I would still not trade him for less than what he’s worth. On the contrary, I would look to buy Jeudy for cheap if the price is right. I’d be offering a 2022 2nd round for him.
Lions
There were a lot of positives that came out of Detroit’s game against the 49ers despite them losing. Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, and T.J. Hockenson all had great games. I would say the most impressive performance was T.J. Hockenson with 8 receptions, 97 yards, and 1 touchdown. I’m really trying not to overreact in a positive direction on this one, but it’s hard. Hockenson looked great on Sunday, and he should continue to be the most targeted non running back on the team. We are witnessing the breakout we all waited two years to see. This is likely the year T.J. jumps very close to (if not in) the top tight end tier.
Packers
I am really struggling with the Packers because there was almost nothing positive to take away from their 38 – 3 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The highest scoring fantasy player for the Packers was Davante Adams. That isn’t surprising since he was projected to be the highest-scoring wide receiver in Dynasty Owner this year (347.7). Rather, it’s surprising that he led all Packers players with just 10.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I don’t want to read too much into this game. The Saints’ defense is elite, and they showed that on Sunday afternoon. A nicely timed Lions’ matchup next week should right the ship for Green Bay.
Texans
The Texans nearly doubled up the Jaguars by beating them 37 – 21. I was most impressed with the workload that was given to Mark Ingram. He had 26 carries for 85 yards and a single touchdown. This was good for 14.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. His 3.3 yards per carry average may not turn any heads, but the sheer volume he received made up for it. That being said, I wouldn’t expect this same number of carries every week. I expect David Johnson and Philip Lindsay to become more involved as the season moves on. Plus, I expect a much more pass heavy approach as they start to play more competitive teams.
Colts
Parris Campbell was targeted only 3 times in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks. What’s strange is that only 14 of Carson Wentz’ 38 pass attempts were targeted at wide receivers. This trend cannot continue if the Colts plan on winning many games. Expect Michael Pittman Jr. (5.9 DOFP) and Parris Campbell (3.4 DOFP) to rebound in the upcoming weeks, at least for the Colts’ sake.
Jaguars
Nothing frustrated me more during Week 1 than watching James Robinson have only 8 touches. He finished with 7.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It’s worth stating that in the games Robinson played in 2020, he never had less than 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I wish I could say that I’m not worried, but I am. I had Robinson in the FLEX position in one of my leagues, and I’ve already decided to bump him out for Antonio Brown next week. I haven’t given up on JRob, but I’m going to need to see Urban Meyer’s willingness to use him more before he’s back in my Starting lineup.
Chiefs
Wow! I mean, what else can I say about the Chiefs? It really shouldn’t be surprising anymore. This was a very typical Chiefs game. They put up video game type stats (Patrick Mahomes: 43.6 DOFP, Tyreek Hill: 37.1 DOFP, Travis Kelce: 25.6 DOFP) and won a close game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire may not have gotten as much use as some of us may have liked, but it was mostly game script issues. Nothing to tilt about here.
Well, that’s the first half of my “Don’t Tilt” series. If you take only one thing from this article, let it be this point…
We have only witnessed one week. This is an incredibly small sample size compared to what we are about to witness for the rest of the season. I have never given up on a player solely because of one or two weeks. Bear through the weeks and trust your draft process and strategy. Give yourself at least four weeks before you start to make critical decisions about your team, especially in Dynasty Owner.
I thank you all for reading and for continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Look for my video that will give a little more personal touch to my content. Next week, I will be presenting about all of the teams I did not get to this week in my “Still Not Tilting” article. I’ll be back tomorrow with my Thursday Night Football preview article. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.
Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk