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Packers vs Cardinals
By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
The set up for this Thursday Night game was widely hyped. On paper, we have the best Thursday Night Football match-up of the year. Tonight, the 6-1 Packers travel to Arizona to play the 7-0 Cardinals. As I said, this match-up seems to be one of the best of the year, let alone one of the best Thursday Night games. Well, there were some unfortunate events that took place over the past few days that threw a little water on this hot matchup.
First, there was breaking news on Monday that Davante Adams had been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list. Adams has been reported to be vaccinated, so this likely means that he received a positive test. This ruled out Adams early in the week, and took one of the best fantasy scorers in football away from this matchup. Next, Allen Lazard was placed on the COVID-19 reserve list on Tuesday. There are reports that Lazard (who is unvaccinated) was a close contact to Adams, and he will also need to quarantine. Lazard will be out as well. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) was questionable to play after being activated off the IR this week, but reportedly is not going to play.
These events put the Packers chances of winning this game in serious danger. Not only that, but it will be tough to rely on Aaron Rodgers as a Dynasty Owner starter given his best receiving option may be Robert Tonyan. There was a lot of line movement following the Adams and Lazard news. A line that once started at Arizona -3 has moved all the way to Arizona -6.5. However, there is a juicy over/under of 50.5 points. I am still greatly looking forward to watching this game, but it’s no surprise that the Cardinals should be the heavy favorite.
Value of the Game Recap
Well, all good things must come to an end. My Value of the Game (VOTG) winning streak did not continue past Week 7. Last week, I predicted that Courtland Sutton would be the VOTG. Not only did I miss on my prediction, but I missed badly. Here is my prediction versus the actual results…
| Week 7 Projections | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 106 | 1 | 22.6 |
| Week 7 Actual | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 68 | 0 | 11.8 |
In the end, the Value of the Game was the player who received his first start of the season in Week 7. That player is D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson had an electric game, and one that made me proud I picked him up in a few of my Dynasty Owner leagues. While I don’t expect this breakout to continue (Nick Chubb seems to be ready to play in Week 8), I do expect D’Ernest to receive a little more opportunity than he did earlier in the season. Here was Johnson’s final line…
| Week 7 Actual | Touches | Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| D’Ernest Johnson | 24 | 168 | 1 | 26.8 |
This production combined with an amazingly cheap salary of $585,000 makes D’Ernest Johnson the Week 7 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.
What To Watch For
I already talked about it at length in my opening statement, but the number one thing I’m going to be watching is who (if anyone) steps up at receiver for the Packers. Similarly, I want to see if Rodgers is able to piece together an acceptable fantasy performance given the fact that he will be without his top two wide receivers. Look for Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers to pick up the majority of the wide receiver touches.
Starters
These are the players that I would recommend placing in your Starting lineup. Of course, this isn’t a “one size fits all” statement. If you have an absolutely stacked team, then maybe some of these players should be left on your Bench. As always, use your best judgement.
Kyler Murray ($8,914,504)
Aaron Rodgers ($33,500,000)
James Conner ($1,750,000)
Aaron Jones ($12,000,000)
DeAndre Hopkins ($27,250,000)
Christian Kirk ($1,473,717)
Zach Ertz ($8,500,000)
Robert Tonyan ($3,384,000)
Bench
Players that you place on your Bench will add 25 percent of their fantasy total to your overall team total. This is just one of the many aspects of Dynasty Owner that makes it unique, and you should take advantage of this opportunity. Players that I would feel comfortable putting on my Bench include…
Chase Edmonds ($728,090)
A.J. Dillon ($1,321,458)
A.J. Green ($6,000,000)
Rondale Moore ($1,731,060)
Randall Cobb ($9,000,000)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($669,388)
Value of the Game
I’m going to think a little outside the box on this week’s pick. As most of you know, the player I pick for the VOTG has to be a player that has above average production with a very low salary. For example: I would love to pick Kyler Murray, but his salary is too high for him to end as the VOTG.
For the first time this year, I am going to pick a Bench player as my Value of the Game. There is a good reason for this. Simply put, I don’t trust MVS enough to start him this week, but his salary is so low that even an average game would make him the biggest value. We also know that it only takes one big play for the big burner to capitalize on, and that is exactly what I’m predicting this week.
This is also a risky play because we don’t know for sure that MVS will be active. Regardless, if he plays, I am predicting he will be the Week 8 Thursday Night Football Value of the Game.
| Week 8 Projections | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 76 | 1 | 16.6 |
**This prediction about MVS was obviously written prior to the news that he is likely miss the game. While I liked the prediction overall, it seems it will be a moot point.**
In MVS’ place, I will substitute Chase Edmonds. Edmonds has a very affordable salary of $728,090. Edmonds has quietly posted an average of 5.8 yards per carry this season as well as 27 receptions. While I see James Conner out-scoring Edmonds tonight, it won’t be by much. Edmonds should be the better value. Here are his projections.
| Week 8 Projections | Touches | Yards | TDs | DOFP |
| Chase Edmonds | 18 | 68 | 1 | 14.8 |
Thank you all, and I will see you next week. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk