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Week 14 Preview – Freeze

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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

The Dynasty Owner trade freeze is almost here. In fact, it’s already here if you wanted to trade for someone on the Vikings or Steelers, like Chase Claypool because you’re Jay Pounds and a huge fan of his first down celebrations. Jay is a huge Steelers fan and tried to trade with me for Claypool in a league, but I’m not sure about his position on Claypool’s first down celebrations. Because both teams played last night, any trades involving a Vikings or Steelers players agreed to now, later on this week, next week, etc., won’t take effect until the Tuesday after the Week 17 games are over (January 4th). The trade freeze on all of the players on the other 30 NFL teams starts on Sunday at 1 PM (Eastern). Don’t forget that trades need to be accepted 24 hours before they are processed so the real deadline for accepting trades is basically Noon (Eastern) on Saturday.

In contrast to last season, there is no more Free Agent Auction freeze. That’s good news if you have a player get hurt, want a replacement and have salary cap room. It’s also good news for Jay Pounds and everyone who reads his weekly Free Agent Auction article or watches his weekly video since it means he has three more of them coming. Dynasty Owners who played last season voted to eliminate the Free Agent freeze for this season.

I’m in the minority on this as I liked the Free Agent freeze. I never cared for the fact that fantasy teams could make the playoffs with one team, then add a player for the playoffs and maybe win with him in their lineup. It happens frequently in my long-time redraft league and I’m not a fan of it. I think you should play in the playoffs with the players on your roster at the end of the regular season. If you want a player for the playoffs, pick him up before the end of the regular season.

While NFL teams can add players during the playoffs, it’s extremely rare that someone who wasn’t on a team’s roster during the season comes in and contributes during the playoffs. I said extremely rare as it happened last year when undrafted rookie offensive lineman Blake Hance was signed by the Browns off the Jets’ practice squad the day before the final game of the regular season. Hance ended up being activated for the Browns’ playoff game the following week against Pittsburgh and entered the game in the fourth quarter. According to QB Baker Mayfield, he introduced himself to Hance in the locker room before the game.

Hance was a lineman not a position player and I’m not sure I recall an instance of a position player being added to a team’s roster after the regular season and contributing to his team during the playoffs. Maybe some reading this article remembers it happening, but I don’t. Since it doesn’t happen in the NFL, then it should happen in Dynasty Owner since we are trying to replicate the experience of being a NFL General Manager or Owner.

Even though I personally didn’t support the change, there’s no more Free Agent Auction freeze in Dynasty Owner. Go ahead make those bids next week and maybe use a player who you pick up will be in your Starting lineup or on your Bench during your playoff run. Maybe I’ll even do it myself.

So far, one of the two teams in our Week 14 Match-up of the Week has picked up a player off the Free Agent Auction this week, but no trades yet. There could be a trade or more Free Agent additions coming though since whoever wins will be guaranteed a spot in their League playoffs. Once they are in the playoffs, they might continue with the free agent additions since it’s now allowed.

There weren’t any suggestions for this week, but they are always welcome. If you want your team or a team in your League to appear in the future, then send me a tweet (@SteveVT33).

The countdown of undefeated teams started in Week 11 with five teams, and we have lost one per week since then. That continued in Week 13 when the last of the undefeated teams outside of the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring, The HipHopOpatomus from League #70068, lost. There are now only two remaining undefeated Dynasty Owner teams:

Team NameLeagueChase Position
DynastyTradeSchool (Mad Minshew)274583rd
Detroit’s Finest7473315th

Check back here next week and see if both of them are still undefeated.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner rostered percentage statistics were current as of the morning of December 10th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s look at how my Week 13 recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok). I predicted performances worthy of being in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup for these four players last week. In an exact repeat of Week 12, I had one Good recommendation and two Bad recommendations from the same positions and the point totals weren’t much different either. Here’s how my Week 13 recommendations did:

QB: Taylor Heinicke – 19.8 (Just Ok recommendation)

RB: Boston Scott – 0.0 (Bad recommendation)

WR: Van Jefferson – 16.1 (Good recommendation)

TE: Brevin Jordan – 2.7 (Bad recommendation)

Van Jefferson had 16.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, enough to make him a Top 24 WR for the week and my recommendation of him was a Good one. Taylor Heinicke was just outside of the Top 12 QBs with 19.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, so that recommendation was Just Ok. The entire Texans offense didn’t do much in Week 13 and that includes Brevin Jordan who had only 2.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Recommending him as a Starter was Bad and he should have been on your Bench. Finally, we have Boston Scott who was active, but didn’t play and so his Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) was clearly a Bad recommendation. There is only one week left in the Dynasty Owner regular season so it’s important to make good Start-Bench recommendations. Here are some players who should be in your Week 14 Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

Taysom Hill (QB – NO): In his first game as the Saints’ starting QB, Taysom Hill played poorly, but still produced 25.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (264 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 101 rushing yards, 4 INTs). The Dallas Cowboys held the New Orleans offense to only 17 points, but the Saints get to face the New York Jets this week. The Jets are allowing a league worst 30.6 points per game and 396.8 yards of total offense per game. Gardner Minshew led the Eagles to 33 points and 24.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his first start of the 2021 season last week against the Jets. That made Minshew the QB11 for the week. The Jets defense has given up an average of 23.65 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to QBs all season and 26.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points since their Week 6 bye. The Jets defense has not improved this season and won’t keep Hill from being a top 12 QB and worthy of a spot in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.

JaMycal Hasty (RB – SF): JaMycal Hasty was the last man standing in the 49ers backfield last week. Both Elijah Mitchell and Jeffery Wilson were injured in last week’s game and the team signed Brian Hill to the practice squad on Wednesday, which isn’t a great sign about their availability for Week 14. Mitchell hasn’t practiced since suffering a concussion, while Wilson did finally practice on Thursday. Even if Wilson is healthy enough to play, Hasty should at least serve as the backup and third down back against Cincinnati. Third down back is a good spot against the Bengals who have allowed the most receptions by RBs in the NFL with 88 (7.3 per game). The 49ers utilized Deebo Samuel as part of their seventh ranked ground game (125.9 rushing yards per game) a lot recently before he was hurt in Week 12 and all of those opportunities should be available for Hasty as well. Hasty should get enough carries and receptions to make him worth having in your Starting lineup this week.

Tre’Quan Smith (WR – NO): All of the reasons for choosing Taysom Hill as a Starting QB this week are valid for choosing a Saints WR here. The question was – which Saints WR to choose? None of them are ranked in the top 24 WRs with Deonte Harris the highest ranked and in a tie with Marvin Jones as WR42. Harris is the Saints’ leading WR in terms of receptions (31) and receiving yards (523) and was the Value Player of the Week last week with 20.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but he’s suspended now. Marquez Callaway is the leader in targets (55) and TDs (6), but only had 2.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last week (1 reception for 13 yards) and didn’t play much last year with Hill at QB because Michael Thomas was healthy for those games. In contrast, Tre’Quan Smith averaged 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the four games that Hill started in 2020 and even though he only had 3.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (2 receptions for 15 yards), he was targeted seven times. Smith should see enough targets this week to score the Dynasty Owner fantasy points that his Dynasty Owners want in a Starting WR.

Austin Hooper (TE – CLE): Even though Hooper was held without a catch when the Browns played the Ravens just two weeks ago, Cleveland TEs ended up with 6 receptions for 85 receiving yards and a TD (20.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). However, Harrison Bryant has an ankle injury and is likely to be out, while David Njoku is on the COVID list and has already been ruled out. Neither one has been officially ruled as out. That leaves only Hooper and rookie Miller Forristall, who was promoted to the active roster on Tuesday and has yet to play a snap on offense this season. The three Cleveland TEs are averaging around nine targets, six receptions and 73 receiving yards per game. Hooper is likely to get most of, if not all, of the TE targets and if it’s an average Cleveland TE game, that’s 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6 receptions for 73 yards) even if he doesn’t score a TD. That will be enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to make Hooper a top 12 TE in Week 14, so he should be in your Starting lineup.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Just like Week 12, the Week 13 Bench recommendations were better than the Starting lineup recommendations. I had two Good and two Bad recommendations and didn’t recommend the Player of the Week as a Bench option like I did in Week 12. That’s a positive development, so let’s find out how each of my picks did.

QB: Josh Allen – 14.1 (Good recommendation)

RB: Saquon Barkley – 13.4 (Bad recommendation)

WR: Kendrick Bourne – 0.3 (Good recommendation)

TE: T.J. Hockenson – 14.9 (Bad recommendation)

For each of the past two weeks, I’ve chosen a player on the Patriots to Bench (Hunter Henry two weeks ago and Kendrick Bourne last week) and both recommendations were Good. The Bourne recommendation was especially Good as he had zero receptions and just one rushing attempt for three yards. In the same game, Josh Allen only scored 14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and was the QB21 for the week, so that recommendation was also Good. High winds equals poor passing, welcome to Fantasy Football Analyst 101. Saquon Barkley was in the Top 24 RBs for the week, so that was a Bad recommendation. Not as Bad as Leonard Fournette the week before, but still Bad. Finally, T.J. Hockenson had a fine game in the Lions’ first victory with 14.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, making that another Bad recommendation. Two Good and two Bad recommendations is an above average Bench recommendation week that I’ll try to match or improve upon in Week 14 with these selections.

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL): When the 2021 schedule came out, lots of people were critical about the scheduling for the Browns as they had to play Baltimore in Week 12, then have a bye in Week 13 and play Baltimore again in Week 14. However, I wonder if the Browns and their fans are looking forward to their second straight game as a chance to get revenge for their 16-10 loss two weeks ago. Even though the Ravens won, Lamar Jackson had a poor game with 4 INTs and only 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (165 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 4 INTs, 68 rushing yards). It was his worst performance of the season in terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, but he’s struggled with turnovers all season. Jackson has played in 11 games, but thrown 13 INTs and fumbled six times (losing two). He’s the QB7 on the season and averaging 27.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, if you remove his one amazing performance against Indianapolis in Week 5 when he scored 63.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, his average drops down to 23.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game and he drops out of the top 12 QBs. Usually, Jackson does better in his second game of the year against Cleveland, but this Browns’ defense is better than they have been in the past. While Jackson will likely have more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than in their first game match-up, I think he’ll still finish outside of the top 12 QBs for the week and is better suited for your Dynasty Owner Bench.

James Robinson (RB – JAC): The question in regard to James Robinson’s fantasy production in Week 14 comes down to whether or not his Dynasty Owners trust Urban Meyer to give Robinson the ball more than he did in Week 13. I’m not sure about that happening based on Meyer’s track record this season. Robinson received 19+ touches for four consecutive weeks (Weeks 3-6), then Jacksonville had a bye week, followed by Robinson getting hurt after only five touches in Week 8. He sat out Week 9 and since coming back in Week 10, he has only gotten more than 19 touches once (Week 12 versus Atlanta) and averaged just 10.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Last year, Robinson had 23.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his first game against Tennessee with 19 touches, but was held to 12.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the second game on only three fewer touches. I see the same pattern in 2021 as Robinson had 19 touches in Week 5 versus Tennessee for 23.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. While Meyer is saying the right things in response to criticism about his usage of Robinson, I’m not confident that he will actually do the right thing, so I’d leave Robinson on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week.

Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): Since their Week 10 bye, it’s been a struggle offensively for the Houston Texans. They have scored only 36 points in three games (12.0 points per game) with just two passing TDs against the Jets. They have thrown for a total of 359 yards in those three games. Davis Mills will start, but hasn’t been great this season with only three games games of 200 or more yards in six starts. Poor QB play hasn’t stopped Brandin Cooks from being the overall WR24 this season, but it has made him inconsistent with five games of less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The Texans’ Week 14 opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, have allowed only seven receiving TDs to WRs this season and none since their Week 9 bye (they have allowed 4 passing to TEs and 1 to a RB in that time though). This leaves me not optimistic about Cooks’ chances to get into the end zone or produce enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to be in your Starting lineup. Leave Cooks on your Bench this week.

Zach Ertz (TE – ARI): This is a tough week to recommend having a top TE on your Bench as three of the four teams on bye (Miami, New England and Philadelphia) have a top 12 TE. Both Tyler Conklin from Minnesota and Pat Freiermuth from Pittsburgh played on Thursday night, leaving even fewer options at my disposal. With my excuses out of the way, Zach Ertz from Arizona is my Bench selection this week. Ertz has played six games for the Cardinals and averaged 11.55 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (69.3 total points). However, only three of those games have come with Kyler Murray at QB and his per game average is actually lower in those games (8.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) than when Colt McCoy is at QB (14.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). The only two games that Ertz has gotten over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his tenure with the Cardinals were games in which he had a TD reception. The Rams are the Cardinals’ opponent this week and they have allowed only four TD receptions to TEs this season, including one by Cardinals TE Maxx Williams back in Week 4. Ertz is TE11 on the Dynasty Owner season, but with Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry and Dallas Goedert on bye, Darren Waller out with an injury, and T.J. Hockenson likely out, Ertz suddenly jumps up to TE6. Even with that ranking, he should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench this week.

Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week – Doobey’s Misfits vs. Cmans Crew

For our final Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the regular season, I wanted to find a game in which the winner makes the playoffs, and the loser is out. It took plenty of time and research, but I finally found one in League #61834 between Doobey’s Misfits and Cmans Crew. Both teams are 7-6 right now and in sixth place (Cmans Crew) and seventh place (Doobey’s Misfits) in their League standings.

A win puts the winning team in the playoffs as either the fifth or sixth seed, while a loss doesn’t necessarily mean that the losing team is out, but with the point advantage that Team Tcare has over both teams, it’s extremely unlikely that Team Tcare doesn’t make it into the playoffs. If Team Tcare loses, then the winner of the Doobey’s Misfits-Cmans Crew game will have a 8-6 record and be the fifth seed, while Team Tcare will be 7-7 and the sixth seed.

The top four seeds are set, but the order is yet to be determined as there is a 10-3 team (Faulty Niners) and three 9-4 teams (Burrows before hoes, FitzMagic and Westerweyhe 49ers). This is not the Burrows before hoes team that is in the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring, but this one is still in 152nd place and need a victory in Week 14 to clinch a first round bye. Tough league when you’re that high up in the Chase for the Ring and fighting for a bye week.

In a change from the usual, I’m putting in the current box score after the Thursday Night Football game. The Steelers tandem of Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson in Starting lineup for Cmans Crew scored 40.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, slightly higher than projected (33.6 points) and has shrunk the deficit for Cmans Crew who still has Tevin Coleman, Mike Williams and Tristan Vizcaino in their Starting lineup. Williams might play, but Coleman has been ruled out and Vizcaino is on the Chargers’ practice squad. Some lineup changes by Cmans Crew could make them the favorite over Doobey’s Misfits.

Doobey’s Misfits is fielding a full Starting lineup and Bench which is giving them a projected advantage of 7.04 points (131.15 to 124.11). However, either team could take this match-up, qualify for the playoffs and maybe make a run at the inaugural League championship. With several players on the Rams and Cardinals in Starting lineups (Sony Michel, D’Andre Hopkins and Tyler Higbee for Doobey’s Misfits and Matthew Stafford for Cmans Crew), it’ll probably come down to Monday Night Football before the winner is determined. Good luck to both teams this week and to the winner in the playoffs!

Conclusion

Once Week 14 is finished, the Dynasty Owner regular season will be over, and the Playoffs (and Loser’s bracket tournament) begin. Everyone needs to set their Starting lineup and Bench as best as they can this week as while your team might not be in contention for the playoffs, they could be playing a team that is trying to make it or working to earn a first round playoff bye. It’s important that the teams  who make the playoffs earn it and don’t get in just because their opponent didn’t set their lineup.

Please read my weekly preview article each and every week. It might help you set your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup or decide who should be on your Bench. While some Dynasty Owners may heed my advice, others might disagree, or not have a better option for their Starting lineup and choose to ignore a Bench recommendation. Other Dynasty Owners may not need Starting lineup help as they have a stud player at a position who isn’t moving to the Bench unless he’s injured or on bye. Hopefully, your choices for your Starting lineup and Bench are the best ones you can make, and your team wins in its regular season finale.

In addition to this weekly preview article, Dynasty Owner has plenty of other great content to help your team win. On Monday, Jay Pounds will preview the Monday Night Football matchup from the Dynasty Owner perspective. Tuesday has a double shot of Dynasty Owner content with my Week 14 recap article and Jay’s Free Agent Auction targets article and video. Wednesdays is when Matt Morrison – The Jerk will dive into a topic of his choosing with an article and a video. On Thursday, Matt will be back with his Thursday Night Football preview article for the first week of the Dynasty Owner playoffs.

Don’t forget about the weekly Dynasty Owner livestream on Wednesday with myself, Tim Peffer, and Dr. Cousin Justin. The injury updates from Dr. Cousin Justin can be crucial at this time of the fantasy football year. If there is a particular injured player who you are interested in learning more about during the livestream, drop me a line on Twitter (@SteveVT33) and I’ll put it on the list for Cousin Justin to research. Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button.

Please read all of our articles, watch our videos on YouTube or listen to them wherever you get your podcasts. Don’t forget follow all three of the Dynasty Owner team of writers plus Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks, and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

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