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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
The news that the Dynasty Owner salary cap for 2021 is likely to go up to $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap) when the 2022 Dynasty Owner league year starts on March 18th means it’s time for Dynasty Owners to start thinking about how they are going to fit in all of the new and updated salaries. The amount won’t be confirmed until the NFL approves its 2022 salary cap, but Dynasty Owners can still start to plan ahead with this estimated amount.
The 2021 salary cap was $127.75 million, so this would an increase of just under $18 million ($17.99 million to be exact). For some Dynasty Owners, that increase isn’t enough to cover the new 2022 salary for certain players who have already signed an extension. For other Dynasty Owners, it’ll be plenty. Since the 2022 salary cap doesn’t go into effect for at least another six weeks and Dynasty Owners may get extra time to get their teams under the salary cap, it’s not imperative that your team’s salaries are there now. However, it doesn’t mean that you can’t start planning for it.
Planning ahead can help Dynasty Owners think about trade offers or whether or not they’ll need to drop a player once he signs as a free agent. With a seven-day window to drop a free agent with a new contract, decisions on keeping, dropping or trading will have to be quick. Even if the window is extended to 30 days, Dynasty Owners will still have to maneuver the players on their roster like chess pieces to make sure they are under the salary cap and still have room for rookies. We’ll get to the rookies later, but based on last year’s calculations, it’s safe to budget between $5.7 million and $26.4 million, depending on how many rookie draft picks your team has at its disposal. The 2022 salary cap room for rookies’ article will come much later on, in the four-week window between the end of the NFL draft on April 30th and the start of Dynasty Owner rookie drafts on May 27th.
Dynasty Owner teams will have plenty of players who had one-year contracts that expired and won’t be re-signed. This will clear up some salary cap room. However, for other players, decisions on what to do will have to be made – hold on to the player, trade them away, or drop them for free when their new salary kicks in. Knowing in advance what salary a free agent is likely to get can be helpful for getting ahead of your fellow Dynasty Owners, clearing out roster space to fit in the players you want to keep, or maximizing the trade value of an impending free agent.
There is plenty of information about anticipated market value for free agents on Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/). Since not everyone has the time to go check out the market value for all of the impending NFL free agents, I’ll look at Spotrac for you, post their Market Value estimates, compare it to the player’s 2021 Dynasty Owner salary and give a recommendation for what to do with the player at that new salary. Sounds like fun, so let’s get started and look at our backfield players (QBs and RBs) who are projected to get contracts of $5 million or more per year. However, we first need to review the boring stuff about how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics and 2021 position ranks were current as of the afternoon of January 31st. Spotrac has market values are available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.
Players Who Are Going to Get Paid Around $10 Million Per Year
While these three players are already signed and their new contracts will kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners, there is one free agent RB who has a market value close to the $10 million range: Cordarrelle Patterson.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Increase |
| RB8 | 30 | $3,000,000 | $9,142,030 | $6,142,030 |
Patterson’s market value is projected at 2 years and $18,284,060, or $9,142,030 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Patterson on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $6.124 million to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Hold for now. Value depends upon who signs him.
If Patterson re-signs with Atlanta, then he’s a player to Keep as Arthur Smith was the first coach to figure out how to use him effectively. His decline in production at the end of the season might worry some Dynasty Owners though. He averaged 18.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the first nine games of the season, then missed the Week 11 Thursday night game against New England with an ankle injury. Upon his return, his production slipped to 11.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the final seven weeks. He was particularly ineffective in the Dynasty Owner playoffs with just a total of 22.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 15-17.
A change of teams probably makes Patterson a one-year, flash in the pan at the age of 30 and his value will decline with a move from Atlanta. A salary in the $9 million to $10 million range would put him in the top 10 in RB salary for 2022 and he’d be the only player in that salary range in his 30s. I’d move Patterson in a trade if he signs elsewhere this off-season.
Players Who Are Going to Get Around $5 Million per Year
There is a much larger number of free agents who are projected to receive contracts in the $5 million per year range. These players will join QB Mason Rudolph who signed a one-year extension for $5.08 million to stay with Pittsburgh and possibly be the Steelers’ starting QB in 2022 and a pair of RBs (Nyheim Hines and Gus Edwards). Hines signed a 3-year, $18.6 million extension ($6.2 million per year) with Indianapolis in early September that takes effect this season, while Edwards signed a two-year extension for $9 million ($4.5 million per year) with Baltimore in June, before his season-ending knee injury (ACL tear) right before the start of the 2021 season. All three of those contracts are signed and will kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners. A few others are projected to receive salaries in the $5 million range, as well as one player who currently makes that amount but doesn’t have a projected market value.
The player without a projected market value is Saints QB Jameis Winston.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Increase |
| QB32 | 28 | $5,500,000 | Not Listed | Unknown |
Winston’s position ranking is low, but he only played in seven games in 2021 and accumulated 152.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (21.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). His per game average projects to QB10 if he played in all 17 games and QB12 if he played in 16 games. However, he hasn’t played a full season since 2019 with Tampa Bay, the Saints already have Taysom Hill signed at QB and are significantly over the salary cap. With everything seemingly up in the air with Winston, what should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Hold for now. Value depends upon who signs him and for how much.
Similar assessment to Cordarrelle Patterson, but with the added caveat about cost since we don’t have a market value for him. If Winston signs with a team that needs a starting QB, like Pittsburgh or Denver, at or around his 2021 salary, then he could be a huge bargain for his Dynasty Owners and his cost to acquire goes up significantly. Re-signing with the Saints is a strong possibility and with Sean Payton out as Head Coach, Winston could be the starter in New Orleans. It is unlikely that Winston signs with a team who has an established QB, but if so, then he could be a candidate to drop depending on the size of his new contract.
The RB projected for the highest average salary in this range is Leonard Fournette.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Increase |
| RB5 | 27 | $3,250,000 | $6,152,577 | $2,902,577 |
Fournette’s market value is projected at 2 years and $12,305,154, or $6,152,577 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Fournette on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $2.9 million to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Keep him. Only trade if the offer is too good to pass up.
Productive RBs are hard to find and Dynasty Owners with Fournette would be wise to stick with him at that projected contract length and salary. Fournette was a top 10 RB in 2019 with Jacksonville and in 2021 with Tampa Bay, so he’s not likely to drop off if he’s on the move again.
Is he likely to be the RB5 in 2022 or 2023? Probably not. However, he doesn’t need to be that productive again to still be worth a little over $6 million per year and if the contract ends up being for only two years, it’s not a huge commitment should he struggle some, or his skills decline.
Any trade offers would have to be pretty overwhelming to recommend trading Fournette at that contract amount. Multiple draft picks or players with lower salaries who have breakout potential for starters. Those draft picks and salary savings can be used to stock up at the RB position, which is something that almost all Dynasty Owners will need to do.
The next RB in this average salary range is James Conner.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Increase |
| RB6 | 26 | $1,750,000 | $5,976,122 | $4,226,122 |
Conner’s market value is projected at 2 years and $11,952,244, or $5,976,122 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Pretty much the same as Leonard Fournette, however Dynasty Owners with Conner on their roster currently will have to find an extra $4.226 million to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Keep him. Trade if you get a good offer and have sufficient RB depth or can acquire additional RBs in the rookie draft.
The same recommendation and reasoning as for Fournette; productive RBs are hard to find. Conner didn’t have nearly as many yards or receptions as Fournette in 2021, but found the end zone 18 times and finished with only 5.8 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points (255.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Even if we remove half of those TDs (9 TDs for 54.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points), Conner would have still scored 201.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and been the RB19 for the season (right between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon).
Conner is due for a TD regression next season regardless of where he ends up. However, he is still only 26 years old and has performed well for two different NFL teams already. He also was able to be productive sharing carries in an offense with another RB in Arizona. As a result, moving to another team, even one with another high-quality RB, likely won’t impact him as much as other players.
Conner’s teammate in Arizona, Chase Edmonds, is the next RB in this salary range.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Increase |
| RB33 | 25 | $728,090 | $5,274,149 | $4,546,059 |
Edmonds’ market value is projected at 3 years and $15,822,447, or $5,274,149 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s about $700,000 less per season than Conner, but Edmonds is projected to get an extra year. Dynasty Owners with Edmonds on their roster currently will have to find an extra $4.546 million to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him.
Chase Edmonds at a salary of $728,090 is a bargain. At over $5.2 million, it’s more than I’d want to spend on a player who’s never been the RB1 on his own team. He only has 14 TDs in 57 career games and 461 touches over four seasons in Arizona. In two average seasons in Pittsburgh, James Conner had 13 TDs in 23 games and 354 touches. That earned Conner a one-year deal for only $1.75 million and Edmonds is projected to make three times as much per season. Maybe it was just the Cardinals didn’t trust Edmonds at the goal line as much as Conner, Kenyan Drake and David Johnson, and he’ll blossom on another team. I’d find another Dynasty Owner who believes and trade him sooner rather than later, that is before he signs his next contract.
The final RB in this salary range is Sony Michel from the Los Angeles Rams.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Increase |
| RB31 | 26 | $2,406,674 | $5,042,830 | $2,636,156 |
Michel’s market value is projected at 2 years and $10,085,660, or $5,042,830 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s close to $1 million less per season than James Conner for the same number of years. Dynasty Owners with Michel on their roster currently will have to find an extra $2.636 million to keep him on their team. What should they do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him and take whatever you can get.
The New England Patriots declined to exercise Michel’s $4.52 million fifth year option last season, then traded him to the Rams. If Bill Belichick doesn’t think Michel is worth $4.52 million, then I’m not having him on my Dynasty Owner team at over $5 million. It’s that simple, even though I know Belichick would rather get rid of a player a season too soon than keep one a season too long.
For $5 million, Dynasty Owners are getting a RB who has averaged less than one reception per game in his career (47 receptions in 55 games). His career yards per carry is just 4.2, so he’s totally reliant on getting a high volume of rushing attempts to have value. He’s unlikely to return to the Rams and this past season was as good as he’s been in his career. Trading him now would be optimal as his value and profile are at a high with the Rams’ appearance in Super Bowl LVI.
Conclusion
Out of these six players expected to get a free agent contract of $5 million or more per year, it’s an even split. There are two who Dynasty Owners should hang onto at their anticipated market value, two who should be held then dealt with after their team and salary are determined, and two who are definite trade candidates since they are moving on from their rookie contract. There are more RBs with an anticipated market value of less than $5 million per year who I’ll tackle next week.
The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen wherever you get your podcasts.
Please read all of the off-season articles and videos from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I’ll talk about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds will talk everything about rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner