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Position: Kenneth Walker III
College: Michigan State
Height: 5’ 10″
Weight: 210
Age: 21
247 Rating: .08122 (3 Stars)
By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)
The Rundown:
Kenneth Walker was a name that popped up a couple times a year ago for me. I noticed his production at Wake Forest and liked some of the tape I watched, but with the competition he was playing didn’t see him being a focus of the 2022 conversation. Once he transferred to Michigan State, I’d figure it would be a help, but I never imagined that he would jump onto the national stage like he did this past season. With his name being mentioned in the Heisman conversation, Kenneth Walker used the 2021 season to jump into the top tier of the running back class.
College Production:
At Wake Forest, Walker ran for exactly 579 yards in his both his Freshman and Sophomore seasons. But the film looked good, there were flashes of big play ability and explosiveness, but the literal agility to be elusive really stood out. Then the move to Michigan State for his Junior season. In the 2021 season, Walker amassed 1,636 yards on the ground, to go with 18 touchdowns. In addition, he also brought in 13 receptions, surpassing his previous season high of three. A truly incredible season, Walker was one of the best running backs in college football last year and comes into draft season with plenty of momentum.
Strengths:
- Side-to-Side Elite- There are a lot of players over the years that have demonstrated the ability to get in and out of their cuts like Walker has this past year. But what sets Walker apart from the crowd is his tenacity to run North-South rather than trying to force it outside or to the sideline. Whether it’s behind the line of scrimmage or out in the second level, Walker is consistently making people miss and moving around the field as he makes his way closer to the end zone.
- Stays Upright- Walker is able to get extremely low to the ground when breaking down in front of a defender or trying to evade a tackler. With what should be top-rated balance stats on Madden 23, the ability to stay on his feet no matter the situation helps him achieve plenty of yards after contact despite not being the biggest player on the field.
- Yard Creation- What sets Walker apart from many of the running backs in this year’s class is his ability to create his own yards. He has the potential to outplay his offensive line. With the Next Gen stats from NFL, I’ll be very interested to see what Walker does in his rookie season. He has shown that he can take a broken play and make something big happen. That is an important trait.
Weaknesses:
- One-Hit Wonder?– As with many prospects that breakout their Junior year, we’re going to question whether or not the production is real. Did everything just break perfect for Walker to have one of the best seasons? Possibly, but despite the great situation, and things just working out, the talent that he showed this season was still there in the film from Wake Forest. The question will come up, but I won’t be too worried about this one.
- Third-and-Long- Walker had only 19 receptions over his college career. Now we can’t always look at that raw number and jump to conclusions but there is usually some kind of context to explain. Walker seems like a decent enough pass catcher to me; the problem is with his pass protection. He does a decent job of getting in the way of defenders, but he isn’t consistently blocking them and taking them out of the situation. An area that needs to be improved if Walker wants to see all three downs at the next level.
Things to Watch:
As always we have to look forward to the NFL Combine and all the excitement that it will bring. I have a feeling that Walker will test well. He may not have elite long speed, but his short area burst is really great and that will likely show once we see his measurables. One thing to keep an eye on will be his height and weight, I don’t expect it to differ from what is listed but if he comes in a 5’ 9” rather than 5’ 10”, I promise you that we will hear about it much more than we should.
Projected Round/Contract:
If any running back is going to sneak into the first round this year, I believe it will be Kenneth Walker. He’s got the momentum and has shown enough upside that a team could fall in love with his traits and potential fit into their scheme. Most likely though Walker is a Day 2 pick, somewhere in the second round. He’ll likely have a similar contract to what I projected the other running backs in the top tier this year (Breece Hall and Isaiah Spiller), somewhere between $2 million and $2.5 million a year over his 4-year rookie contract. If he does happen to sneak into the back end of the first, we could see something similar to Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393) and his deal that has a fifth-year option at the end.
Team Fits:
Kenneth Walker has the potential to be a full-load running back at the next level, but if you’re expecting him to be playing every snap his rookie year you’ll be pretty far off on his final snap count. He’ll get the opportunity (with the expected draft capital), but he’ll be limited to mostly run situations until he improves his pass protection and shows consistency catching the ball. This means he’ll likely find himself in a time share with a veteran back who excels on third and long situations, giving whatever team drafts him a pretty good 1-2 punch.
One team that currently fits this mold is the Miami Dolphins. Giving Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) a top running back would allow him to do what he does best and work off of play action. Myles Gaskin ($651,694) would be able to handle the passing downs with enough skill to get the team heading in the right direction and then Gaskin will be a free agent after the 2022 season. The situation seems perfect for Walker to walk into and develop. The Dolphins currently have the 30th overall pick as well as the 50th, both spots that Walker could end up being selected.
Another team with a similar situation would be the Houston Texans. Running back might not be the top priority as the team has a lot of holes to fill, but they need to overhaul their backfield with some youth. David Johnson ($5,000,000) is a 30-year old free agent and 31-year old Rex Burkhead just signed a one-year extension with the Texans for $2,350,000. If Walker is the selection for them at pick 37, they could always sign another veteran free agent to pair with Walker and Burkhead, as there will be a bunch of them this year.
Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind).