Free Agent Market Values: High Salary TEs

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

The start of the 2022 NFL season is getting closer. We are in the first stage of the off-season, the two-week period in which NFL teams can place franchise or transition tags on their own free agents. No tags have been placed yet as teams generally wait until closer to the end of the two-week period (March 8th) to make those decisions.

However, there have been several players who have restructured their contracts in the past few days by converting 2022 base salary and roster bonuses into signing bonuses. This helps their NFL teams free up cap space for the 2022 season. The two position players who have done so in the past few days are Packers RB Aaron Jones and Saints WR Michael Thomas. However, while those restructurings will help their NFL teams with the anticipated $208.2 million NFL salary cap, they won’t help Dynasty Owners with the anticipated $145.74 million Dynasty Owner salary cap (70% of the NFL cap). Salaries in Dynasty Owner are based on the average annual value of the entire contract, so their Dynasty Owner salaries won’t change.

The one signing of note came on Friday when the Carolina Panthers re-signed TE Ian Thomas to a 3-year deal worth $16.5 million ($5.5 million for Dynasty Owner salary purposes). Other than that, it’s been mostly fringe players signing reserve/futures contracts since the Super Bowl.

Any 2022 signed contracts will be listed under Yearly Salary Breakdown or posted in the Contract section on the player’s profile if it’s like Thomas’ and hasn’t taken effect yet. Dynasty Owners can start planning for the remaining free agent contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).

Now that the discussion of free agent QBs, RBs and WRs and their market values is finished, our attention turns to TEs. This article will review the five high salary TEs, those players who have market values of $8 million or more per season. That’s fewer high salary TEs than WRs and also a lower salary figure for the TEs than the high salary WRs who had market values of over $10 million per season. However, before we can get to the players, let’s review how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 28th. Spotrac has market values available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.

TEs Who Are Going to Get Paid Over $10 Million Per Year

There are three free agent TEs with market values of $10 million or more per year. If they end up getting contracts with an annual value of over $10 million, it will increase the number of TEs in that salary range to 10. In 2021, only five TEs had average salaries in that range (George Kittle – $15 million, Travis Kelce – $14.3 million, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith – $12.5 million, and Austin Hooper – $10.5 million). They will be joined by Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews who signed new contracts during the 2021 season with average annual salaries of $14.25 million and $14 million respectively.

The free agent TE with the highest market value out of the three is Dalton Schultz.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE325$728,090$12,680,722+ $11,952,632

Schultz’s market value is projected at 4 years and $50,722,888, or $12,680,722 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Schultz on their roster currently should expect to have to pay nearly $12 million more in salary to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Keep him

Schultz was able to thrive in each of the past two seasons in Dallas under different circumstances. In 2020, he was the TE10 and had five games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in total from three different QBs (Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci). The only Dallas QB who he didn’t team up with for over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in a game was Garrett Gilbert. He had 8.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the one game Gilbert started against Pittsburgh. In 2021 with Dak Prescott at the helm for 16 out of the Cowboys’ 17 regular season games, Schultz had 11 games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Overall, he was the TE3 with 208.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (12.3 points per game). All of this production comes in a Dallas offense featuring several other high-profile offensive weapons.

If Schultz stays in Dallas, he should be fine. He’s proven that he can produce in this offense. If he leaves, the team that signs him should have plans to make him an even higher profile part of their offense. Paying $12.5 million for a TE is a lot, but good tight ends are hard to find. Especially 25-year old ones who have finished in the top 10 in TE scoring in each of the past two seasons.

Mike Gesicki is next and has a market value of just over $11 million per year.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE826$1,652,981$11,003,330+ $9,350,349

Gesicki’s market value is projected at 4 years and $44,013,320, or $11,003,330 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Gesicki on their roster currently should expect to have to pay just over $9.35 million more in salary to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him

This may seem contradictory after I just wrote that Dynasty Owners should keep Dalton Schultz because “…good tight ends are hard to find. Especially 25-year old ones who have finished in the top 10 in TE scoring in each of the past two seasons.” That definition fits Gesicki as well, except that he’s a year older (26). It can’t be just the extra year that makes me change my recommendation, especially since Gesicki’s salary is projected to be less than Schultz’s at $11 million per season. So, why the trade recommendation for Gesicki?

It comes down to steady production that is lacking from Gesicki and not likely to get better with Tua Tagovailoa as his QB in Miami. Gesicki had only five games in each of the 2020 and 2021 seasons with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’s my baseline for being a Top 12 TE in Dynasty Owner on a weekly basis. He also had ten games in those two seasons with between 8.0 and 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, making him a very low-end Starter or a high-end Bench TE option. If my Dynasty Owner team is spending $11 million in salary on one of the few TEs making that much, I want him in my Starting lineup every single week. I feel like Schultz is that type of player, but Gesicki is not.

Can new Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel turn Gesicki into the next George Kittle? Maybe, but I don’t think Gesicki is as good as either Kittle ($15 million) or Schultz. However, there’s a Dynasty Owner in your league who probably does and is willing to pay Gesicki’s contract. Find out who that is and trade him to that team.

The final TE with a market value of over $10 million per season is Robert Tonyan.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE5127$3,384,000$10,803,009+ $7,419,909

Tonyan’s market value is projected at 4 years and $43,212,036, or $10,803,009 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Tonyan on their roster currently should expect to have to pay just under $7.42 million more in salary to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

Tonyan was the TE51 in 2021, but he got injured in Week 8 and missed the rest of the season. However, he only had 50.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in eight games, an average of just 6.3 points per game. At that pace, he would have been the TE23 if he played all 17 games with 107.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and slotted in between David Njoku and Evan Engram.

In 2020, he was the TE5 in Dynasty Owner with 176.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (11.0 points per game). He was just 0.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points away from being the TE3. He caught 11 TD passes in 2020, tied with Travis Kelce for the most by a TE. His standing was improved greatly by the TDs. If you remove five of those TDs, he’s the TE12 and not looking as great.

Trade Tonyan regardless of whether the Packers figure out how to pay him that salary and keep Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Even if that happens, Rodgers is still going to throw to Adams all of the time and Tonyan will be at best their third option behind Adams and Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon. Anywhere else, he’s likely to not be worth that salary (think Austin Hooper in Cleveland). Hype up the TE5 finish in 2020 when making your trade offers and see what you can get.

TEs Who Are Going to Get Around $8 Million per Year

Right now, there are two TEs slated to make around $8 million in salary for the 2022 Dynasty Owner season. The first is Kyle Pitts who is on his rookie contract as the #4 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft for $8,227,624 per season. The second is Logan Thomas who signed an extension with the Washington Commanders for three years and $24.065 million ($8,021,667 per season) during the season. Three other TEs made that much in 2021 (Zach Ertz at $8.5 million plus Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham at $8 million) and all three are free agents. However, only one out of the three is expected to return and play with a contract in that range for 2022. It’s Rob Gronkowski.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE732$8,000,000$8,387,909+ $387,909

Gronkowski’s market value is projected at 1 year and $8,387,909 for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Gronk on their roster currently should expect to have to find only $387,909 more to keep him on their team. Don’t be surprised if he signs again for the same $8 million figure as last year. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Hold if you plan on being a contender. Trade if you’re rebuilding.

Last year, Gronk missed five games, but still scored 171.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 12 games for an average of 14.3 points per game. He managed eight games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points despite only scoring a TD in three games (he scored 2 TDs in all three of those games). He improved to be the TE7 in 2021 after finishing as the TE11 in 2020. Even at 32 years of age, he’s Gronk and one of the best TEs to ever play in the NFL.

However, with four Super Bowl rings, one retirement in the books and plenty of injuries, it seems pretty likely that this is Gronk’s final NFL season. If you think you have a Dynasty Owner team that can contend for a League Championship in 2022, he’s worth holding. If your team is rebuilding, he’s pretty worthless if he retires next year so you need to trade him. Either way, it’s going to be his first season without Tom Brady as his QB, so you’re hoping that he lands in a good playing spot with a quality QB to maximize his value.

C.J. Uzomah is the other TE with a market value in the $8 million range.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE1929$6,100,000$8,229,563+ $2,129,563

Uzomah’s market value is projected at 3 years and $24,688,689, or $8,229,563 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Uzomah on their roster currently should expect to have to find $2.13 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

At his current $6.1 million salary, Uzomah is only rostered in 52.7% of Dynasty Owner leagues. He finished the 2021 season as TE19 and has the lowest roster percentage of any Top 20 TE. A raise of over $2 million per season isn’t going to help his roster percentage or the ability for his Dynasty Owners to find a trade partner. Uzomah had career highs in receptions (49), receiving yards (493) and TDs (5) in 2021. Did he finally find his groove in his seventh NFL season or benefit from being on a team with a great young QB in Joe Burrow and multiple weapons drawing attention away from him?

Bet on the latter and Uzomah not being able to duplicate his breakdown season, either in Cincinnati or with another NFL team. Try and shop him now and even after he signs a new contract, but don’t expect to get much for him. Rejected trade offers will be the norm, so you’ll likely just have to drop him or add him as a throw-in to make salaries work in a larger deal.

Conclusion

Those are the five free agent TEs who are expected to sign contracts of more than $8 million per season in free agency. The free agent TE market is more robust than the QB or RB market, but not quite as plentiful as the WRs. There are five more TEs with market values of under $8 million to discuss next week. After that, it’s time to start writing about other topics as NFL free agency starts and the 2022 Dynasty Owner off-season heats up.

The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.

Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday right now as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Ow

Free Agent Friday: AFC West

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The opening of NFL free agency is quickly approaching. The actual date is March 16 at 4 pm ET. We know that this date historically is the epicenter of major news and signings. I expect that this year will be no different. In addition to this date, there are several other important happenings around the NFL. As I did last year, allow me to give you some of the more important things that will be occurring over the next few months.

Franchise and Transition Tag Period:

February 22 – March 8

During this time, all teams must make a decision on whether or not they want to franchise, or transition tag a player. After this window has passed, we will know who has been “tagged” in any fashion.

NFL Scouting Combine:

March 1 – 7

The Scouting Combine was once one of my favorite events to watch when it comes to the NFL. COVID has taken a lot of that joy away because it’s not the consolidated, all-encompassing event that it once was. Many players opted out of the combine or participated in their hometowns with unofficial results. Thankfully, the NFL has relaxed some of the restrictions for this year, and it looks like it will be closer to a regular combine than the two years previously.

Free Agency Contact Begins:

March 14

There are strict rules in the NFL (like most sports) about how and when a player may be contacted about a possible contract. Up until this date, teams are prohibited from contacting free agents. Again, this may not mean much to us as Dynasty Owners other than the fact that we will probably be getting a heavy amount of rumors flying during this 48 hour period.

New NFL League Year and Free Agency Begins:

March 16

This is the date that all of us are waiting for…NFL free agency will open at 4 pm ET on March 16. Last year, we watched as free agents were signed very quickly. I anticipate this year will be the same. I will be sure to update you all every Friday with the newest info about all the free agents we have and will talk about in these articles.

These are all the events that are currently on my radar. It’s worth mentioning that the NFL Draft will take place from April 28 – 30.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Byron Pringle28UFA$2,133,000$4,000,000
Darrel Williams26UFA$1,600,000$3,000,000
Jerick McKinnon29UFA$990,000$1,500,000

The Chiefs have the majority of their offensive firepower returning for the 2022 season. Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH), Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will all be returning on the same contracts they had in 2021. Here are three lesser known players that played minor (but important) roles for the Chiefs in the past.

Byron Pringle actually had moderate success last season. He was quite inconsistent but did manage to have five games over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. There is little room for additional playmakers for the Chiefs given that Hill and Kelce take so much of the production. Not only that, but it’s been hard to predict which secondary player will step up on any given day. I expect Pringle to resign with KC for roughly double his previous contract.

Speaking of inconsistent, Darrel Williams was just that in 2021. He filled in nicely for CEH when CEH missed five games in the middle of the season, but Williams’ upside is very much limited when Clyde is healthy and in the lineup. I don’t see any reason why Williams shouldn’t be re-signed, however. He will cost more than last year, but it’s a worthy price to pay for a very capable backup running back. Unfortunately, you shouldn’t expect him to be a high scoring running back for a 3 million dollar salary.

Jerick McKinnon is likely on his way out of Kansas City. He was largely a non-factor in 2021, and he is nearing age 30. Expect McKinnon to leave the Chiefs and possibly find his last contract as a backup running back for a team in need. If you want to continue to roster him, prepare for a one and a half million dollar salary per year.

Los Angeles Chargers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Mike Williams27UFA$15,680,000$18,000,000
Jared Cook34UFA$4,500,000$5,000,000
Jalen Guyton24RFA$540,000$4,000,000

Mike Williams is one of the biggest free agents this off-season. He has been perennially undervalued, and it is mainly because of his injury history. Here at Dynasty Owner, an almost 16 million dollar salary is not great value when it comes to a WR2 and an inconsistent one at that. I like Williams to return to the Chargers in 2022 as it won’t cost much more to sign him. I think his going rate will be around 18 million dollars per year.

Jared Cook is a player who I feel like I talk about every off-season. He is likely to find another new home in 2022. While retirement may be a long shot this close to free agency, I think it’s still possible. He is 34 years old, but has shown the ability to be an above average tight end.

Jalen Guyton is a restricted free agent. All that means for our purposes is that he has less freedom when it comes to his free agency decisions. Guyton will be signed to a new contract, and I think it should be along the lines of 4 million dollars. However, it will likely be less as he has little leverage. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Well, this is a first. The Raiders have zero notable free agents this off-season. I won’t break down any players in full for this article, but here are a few players who may be worth keeping your eye on. However, none of these players are rostered in more than 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues.

  • Marcus Mariota
  • Jalen Richard
  • Zay Jones
  • DeSean Jackson
  • Payton Barber

Denver Broncos

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Melvin Gordon28UFA$8,000,000$6,000,000
Teddy Bridgewater29UFA$11,499,000$10,000,000

We have two hot free agents in Melvin Gordon and Teddy Bridgewater. I truly believe that Gordon has a lot left in his career and that he would be much better served in another offense.  It’s not that I don’t like Gordon. Quite the opposite. I think he could join at least five teams and become the starter on Day One. Instead, the issue is Javonte Williams. Williams, at this point in their careers, is a more explosive and better running back than Gordon. I think the Broncos have realized that, and I’m pretty sure Dynasty Owners have too. The hard truth is that it is logical for the Broncos to bring Gordon back in order to keep wear and tear off of Javonte. They were both very efficient in 2021, and there is no reason they can’t be in 2022 as well. This would obviously take fantasy production away from both players, but it would be the right “real football move” in my opinion. In the end, Gordon will command roughly $6,000,000 per year.

Teddy B is the final player I want to talk about today. He was the starter for the Broncos for the majority of the season, but I’m nearly positive that he isn’t the long term solution to their quarterback problems. That being said, he is an above average backup quarterback in the NFL, and he will be signed to a team at some point in this off-season. Expect him to receive something around 10 million dollars per year.

If there is any player that you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Prospect Preview: Drake London

Position: WR

College: USC

Height: 6’ 5”

Weight: 205

Age: 20

247 Rating: 0.9087 (4 Stars)

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

A somewhat controversial prospect, Drake London was one of the best and most productive receivers in college football this season until he suffered a foot injury against Arizona in late October. While the injury doesn’t affect his long-term outlook, the film he put together has some question marks for many. Was London simply the lucky recipient of a very concentrated offense or is he a future top wideout at the next level? Depending on who you ask you will get a variety of answers.

College Production:

Throughout his first two years at USC, London put up decent numbers of 72 receptions and just over 1,000 yards with 8 touchdowns. This was over 14 games, so overall rather impressive numbers. But the real breakout was in 2021, in the injury-shortened season, when London handled 88 catches for 1,084 yards and 7 touchdowns… in 8 games. That’s an average of 11 receptions a game for over 130 yards. London was the USC offense in 2021 and he was on a historical pace before the injury. Now going forward, where does he fit into the 2022 draft class? There’s a lot more to London than just a high volume of receptions.

Strengths:

  • Small Forward Size- Most football fans get excited when they see a 6’ 5” wide receiver join their team. That size can give them an advantage in many situations, and people will get even more excited when the announcers mention something about a basketball background. Yes, London was a two-sport athlete at USC, playing on the basketball team as well. But don’t be fooled by that knowledge, as impressive as it is to be on the USC basketball squad London only ever appeared in two games for a total of six minutes. Still, the basketball background only helps this wideout as he bodies up defenders and gets up for those contested catches.
  • 70/30’s- Simply put, 50/50 balls are not 50/50 balls when they are headed London’s way. Not only does he have the size and length, but he’s obviously got the timing and body control down to take advantage of jump balls against smaller defenders. This works for him up and down the field as any ball thrown his way has a chance to end up in his hands.
  • Volume/Efficiency- In 2021, London showed us that he could contribute at a high level and handle the workload of a WR1 on a team. He’s capable of having an offense run through him and not letting his quarterback down. Opposing defense knew where the ball was going on every pass play and still London would come down with the catch. On the flip side though, it doesn’t seem like London has to be the main target to produce. In 2020, he averaged 15.2 yards per reception and has shown the ability to make big plays down the field when given the opportunity.

Weaknesses:

  • Separation?- Often times when we think of receivers who handle a ton of volume and short yardage receptions we imagine great route runners like Kennan Allen ($20,025,000) or Diontae Johnson ($1,070,241) who create a lot of separation quickly and often. London doesn’t fit that mold. Despite the high volume he carried at USC, he’s not a consistent separator like some of the other wideouts mentioned. This brings up some concerns, as good as his contested catch ability is, what will it look like in the NFL? Will he manage to win at the same high-rate? Or is he a little too reminiscent of N’Keal Harry ($2,524,587)?
  • Is He The X?- At 6’ 5” you expect London to come into a team and become the bona fide X receiver out on the sideline right? Well, he played mostly in the slot until this past season and while he did well on the outside, it was against PAC-12 corners and I’m not convinced he has the strength and physical dominance to continue that production at the next level in that position. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being the big slot receiver, in fact it could even be better for fantasy football production, but let’s take a moment to temper our expectations. I don’t have London pegged as the next Vincent Jackson or Mike Evans ($16,500,000) just yet.

Things to Watch:

Is London going to be healthy enough to do any testing during the pre-draft process? I’m really not too sure either way, but I will certainly be watching for anything that he may take part in. For his size, I’m not too worried about his athleticism. He’s not a burner but he’s got enough juice to compete at the next level. Would I love to see some numbers attached to his name? Yes. Do the numbers really matter? No.

Projected Round/Contract:  

Everyone has Drake London as a first round draft pick and at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter if I agree or not (I do not), so that’s where we will project him. The injury shouldn’t cause too much of a drop, unless there are reports of a setback, so I’d expect London to hear his name called at the back end of the first round, in that sweet spot for WRs between 20-28. He’ll likely have a contract hit similar to Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853), earning a deal of about $12m -$13m over four years.

Team Fits:  

So many teams could use a big receiver like London. Whether he develops into that dominate outside receiver or if he becomes the ultimate mismatch in the slot, either way a team should be able to use him. Does a team want to pair him with another big, physical receiver? Then look no further than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Chris Godwin ($15,983,000) moves on to another team, then the Bucs will likely need to find a new pairing for Evans. Now we don’t know who will be throwing the ball, but with two 6’ 5” receivers on the team, it might not matter that much. Bruce Arians is going to air it out no matter who is under center, so the front office might as well give him another wideout to catch it.

A team I really haven’t heard mentioned in the same sentence as London is the Miami Dolphins. Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498) has shown the potential to be a great playmaker, but the team needs a physical receiver to pair with him and Devante Parker ($7,625,000) doesn’t seem to be the future of that position. London would be the strength to Waddle’s speed, giving Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) the wideouts he needs to continue building confidence in the Dolphins offense. As Mike McDaniel starts to build his team and dynamic offense, it will be certainly worth watching how he address the wide receiver position this year in the draft.

Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind).

A Quick Guide to Rebuilding

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners welcome back to another week of rebuilding with yours truly. In last week’s article we covered fellow Dynasty Owner Bryan Peck’s team (@bbpckdancer) and the moves I would make if I had his team as my own. In the coming months I would like to do a lot more articles on Dynasty Owner teams that are in separate phases of a rebuild. I think this gives you guys the best idea of how to go about rebuilding your own team. If interested feel free to contact me on Twitter (@JayPoundsNFL) as I would love to do your team as well!

In today’s article I am going to do something that I will make a habit of doing every year near the beginning of the off-season and will essentially be a strategy guide to rebuilding and will end up as a two-part series. Today, I will cover several topics such as, when it’s time to rebuild and what to do first, how to choose your building blocks, who to trade, as well as what to do during the season. After we have all of that covered, I am going to dedicate next week’s article to rebuilding trades and the benefits of making them. I will also feature a bunch of trades from my good friend Bryce Williams (@BryceNFL) as he nailed several trades small and big that I think all rebuilding owners should try to make more often. I will include two of Bryce’s trades today as a little sneak peek into next week.

When to Start Your Rebuild?

In any dynasty format, one of the toughest decisions you will have to make is the decision to rebuild or continue trying to run at a championship. I, for one, do not like being even remotely close to the middle of the two scenarios and tend to go into rebuilds rather quickly after a startup. I like to try and maximize the value of players by getting a year of solid production followed by turning them into a draft pick or two, but it doesn’t always work out that way. One of the main reasons when deciding to start a rebuild is so tough is because many team managers show bias when looking at their own roster. Instead of trying to explain scenarios of when the time is right, I am going to explain why I decided to start rebuilding one of my teams 6-7 weeks into last season.

The first thing you should look at here on Dynasty Owner is, do you have enough fire power at quarterback to compete. If the answer is no and there is no clear-cut answer for you to obtain a top level QB without destroying your roster, the decision may already be made for you. The team in question was a startup draft where I selected Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater as my quarterbacks. Once it became clear Lawrence was not ready to compete at a high level yet, I decided it was time to rebuild. Obviously if you have a strong roster everywhere else then you can work around the quarterback issue, but for my team, injuries on top of bad quarterback play did me in for the season. Injuries will also be a huge part of deciding to start rebuilding because of the salary cap here on Dynasty Owner and the short shelf life of NFL players.

On my roster to start the season I had the following players get hurt, play poorly, or were due or had signed a new contract for 2022,:

  • Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393)
  • Nick Chubb (signed $12.2 million extension for 2022),
  • Gus Edwards (signed $5 million extension for 2022)
  • DeAndre Hopkins ($27,250,000)
  • Curtis Samuel ($11,500,000)
  • D.J. Moore (had $11,120,000 fifth year option for 2022 picked up)
  • Jerry Jeudy ($3,798,243)
  • D.J. Chark (free agent in 2022)
  • Logan Thomas (signed $8,021,667 extension for 2022)

This made my decision to rebuild fairly simple. In many rebuilds you will have a tougher decision as this many players will not get hurt on your roster but if a few do and you feel the year is lost look for these things when deciding on a rebuild.

  • How many free agents do I have?
  • Will I have enough cap space to be flexible?
  • Will my core players be closer or further from their prime come next season?

If you do not have sound positive answers to these three questions, then it is likely time for a rebuild as was the case for my team. To sum everything up, if you have more than a couple question marks, older players, and upcoming free agents due big contracts on your roster, it is time to move into rebuild mode.

Who Should You Trade?

In a rebuild the easiest way to speed up the process is by making numerous trades to acquire young players and draft picks. As I did previously, I will also use my newest rebuild to cite examples of who to trade. The league in question is a tough league of fantasy writers and some of the better minds in the industry who do not partake in content, meaning a one sided trade is tough to find. One of my biggest blows in 2021 was the injury to DeAndre Hopkins making him a player I knew I had to trade. Hopkins has a salary of $27,250,000 and with a price like that he becomes extremely tough to trade, especially when banged up but it can be done if you get creative, even if it is for what you consider peanuts on the dollar. Aside from your expensive players the main players you should look to trade as soon as you decide to rebuild are your starting running backs because they do not last long in today’s NFL.

In the Writers league after I made up my mind that I was going to rebuild, the first thing I did was trade Nick Chubb a starting running back who signed a 3-year, $36.6 million extension ($12.2 million per year) in July that kicks in for the 2022 season. After moving Chubb, I had just C.E.H. left who was not worth trading at that time. I then moved on to my older receivers in Hopkins and Amari Cooper ($20,000,000) and surprisingly, I received solid value for both and will feature the trades in next week’s article. My main rule of thumb when trading running backs and receivers is to trade them after a certain age or based on their contract situation. It will also depend on how long you think your rebuild will last. In this scenario, we will use the typical three-year rebuild window and with that I will always trade running backs who have already finished their second season in the league. In the NFL, receivers tend to last longer than running backs and can be held into their second deal unless they are over the age of 26. Once receivers hit the age 27, I feel there is not enough of a prime window for a rebuilding owner to justify keeping them. As far as the tight end and quarterback positions you can hold on to them a little longer as they tend to age gracefully. To make a long story short trade everyone except players like Kyle Pitts ($8,227,624), Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701), Ja’Marr Chase ($7,547,410), or players like Edwards-Helaire ($2,705,393) who are still young and unlikely to net significant value in a trade.

Tips and Tricks for During the Season

I will use this section of the article as a guide into next week’s Creative Rebuilding Trades article. What I mean by creative trades is exactly how it sounds, not your typical trades. What you will not see is trades that are easy to make like a rebuilding owner moving off Austin Ekeler ($6,125,000) for a few first round picks. Trading in Dynasty Owner is extremely different from other dynasty leagues because of the salary meaning someone like Amari Cooper will not be easy to trade unless he is putting up Top 10 numbers at the receiver position. Even then, you will still need to get creative when moving him by taking on a bad deal.

Another way to be creative when trading is by picking up players from the Free Agent Auction like Devonta Freeman or Cordarrelle Patterson and moving them for future draft capital. In a scenario like this you have to see it for what it is, you are trading Dynasty Dollars for draft capital or whatever you get in return for the player you found in the Free Agent Auction.

Another thing I noticed Bryce doing that I love is scouring over the other owner’s teams and picking up the free agents they really needed. What this does is puts you in a situation where you have all the leverage as you have the guy they NEED while they only have something that you WANT! As I mentioned earlier my friend Bryce has nailed several of these trades and will be a huge part of next week’s article and you will get to see exactly what being active as a rebuilding owner will get you. An old quote I like to associate with rebuilding is “quiet mouths don’t get fed” meaning if you are not sending out trade offers you won’t be rewarded.

Sneak Peek into Next Week

As the title above says this section is a sneak peek into next week’s article but it will also help you understand some of the tips and tricks I talked about earlier. I want to show you two smaller, in-season trades to give you an idea of what to expect next week. In these two trades, Bryce’s team is the rebuilding owner while the other team is trading as a contender.

Trade #1

Bryce sends – Cam Newton ($6,000,000), 2022 2nd round pick

Bryce receives – Jameis Winston ($5,500,000), 2022 2nd round pick

A nice small trade that gets the point across. In this trade, Bryce picked up Cam Newton off the Free Agent auction and turned him into what was projected to be a much higher second round pick along with a potential starting quarterback for years to come in Jameis Winston. Both Newton and Winston will be free agents in 2022. I will not spend much time on this trade at all, but you should ask yourself one question. What purpose would Cam Newton serve on a rebuilding roster?

Trade #2

Bryce sends – Mike White ($850,000)

Eli sends – 2023 3rd round pick

What we have here is a small trade between two of my favorite Dynasty Owners on the platform, Bryce Williams (@BryceNFL), and Eli Padilla (@eli_pad1224). In this trade, the outcome makes sense for both users, but we are focused on what Bryce was able to get for a player we all knew wouldn’t start for long in Mike White. In all honesty, Bryce had zero need for Mike White on his roster other than the fact he may be able to get draft capital for him, which he was able to do.

Summary

In rebuilding there are so many factors that can affect how long of a process it becomes. As I mentioned earlier your building blocks are extremely important, but so are many other things. If you want to have a quick rebuild on this platform you will need to do some of, if not all of the things mentioned above. I know it can be hard to let go of some of these players, but it is a must when rebuilding. Be sure to look at and try to project where picks you trade for will be, surprisingly it’s pretty easy to see in a lot of situations because of expiring contracts and the cap. The last major thing I suggest is picking up all helpful free agents and use them in package deals or deals for low-end draft picks. If this is something that interests you, be sure to check out next week’s article Titled Creative Rebuilding Trades to give you the reasoning behind trades that have been made by real rebuilding owners.

Thank you all for reading. Be sure to check out the articles by the other Dynasty Owner writers Matt, Nate, and Steve throughout the week. Stay safe and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

Free Agent Market Values: Lower Salary WRs

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

With the 2021 NFL season in the rearview mirror and the 2022 season coming into view on the horizon, let’s continue to dive into the free agent WRs and their market values. As mentioned in previous articles, the anticipated 2022 Dynasty Owner salary cap is $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap), an increase of $17.99 million. The 2022 Dynasty Owner league year starts on March 18th and that’s when signed contracts will take effect. Now is the time to do research by checking if any of your players have already signed contract extensions and look at market values to plan your roster for next year.

Any 2022 signed contracts are either listed under Yearly Salary Breakdown or posted in the Contract section on the player’s profile if it hasn’t taken effect yet. Dynasty Owners can start planning for free agent contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/). This article will review ten WRs who have market values of less than $10 million per season. They aren’t the only free agent WRs who will get salaries in that range, just the only ones with a market value on Spotrac. Before we can get to the players, let’s review how they score Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 21st. Spotrac has market values are available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Over $7.5 Million per Year

The first range for the lower salary WRs is between $7.5 million and $10 million per season. None of the WRs who signed contract extensions during the 2021 season signed for this amount. Both T.Y. Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster signed one-year contract extensions for the 2021 season in this range ($8 million each) and Dynasty Owners didn’t get their money’s worth out of either player.

The player with the highest market value in this range is Deonte Harty. He went by Deonte Harris until Christmas Day when he changed his name to honor his stepfather. On Dynasty Owner, he’s listed as Deonte Harty, but other places might still have him listed as Harris.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR5724$588,333$9,818,663+ $9,230,330

Harty’s market value is projected at 3 years and $29,455,989, or $9,818,663 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Harty on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $9.23 million to keep him on their team, which is over half of the expected Dynasty Owner salary cap increase. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

This market value amount surprised me tremendously. I didn’t see Harty as a nearly $10 million per year player and wonder how many of his Dynasty Owners do. For his entire three-year NFL career, he has averaged just 6.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with a high of 133.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games played last year (10.25 per game). He does have youth going for him as he only turned 24 in early December and likely some NFL team is giving him a contract of this amount based on his age and potential.

Harty has gained 2,514 return yards and that counts for something in Dynasty Owner that it doesn’t in most other fantasy football leagues. It’s a total of 62.85 Dynasty Owner fantasy points spread over 36 games played for 1.75 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. It makes Harty more valuable in Dynasty Owner than elsewhere, but I still don’t see him as worth nearly $10 million per season. Hopefully another Dynasty Owner does, and you can trade him away for something. If not, then it’s perfectly fine to drop Hardy and find other players to spend that salary on.

The player with the second highest market value in this range is better known by his initials – MVS. It’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR9127$669,388$8,794,033+ $8,124,645

Valdes-Scantling’s market value is projected at 3 years and $26,382,099, or $8,794,033 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Valdes-Scantling on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $8.125 million to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

This market value amount also surprised me as I didn’t see MVS as being worth almost $9 million in salary per year. He has caught only half of his targets in his career (123 receptions from 247 targets) with an average of just 2.1 receptions per game. He does move the chains though with an average of 17.5 yards per catch for his career. However, in terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, he only averaged 7.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2021 and 8.5 points per game in 2020.

Those stats, or at least the potential for providing those stats plus more, are apparently worth nearly $8.8 million per year for a NFL franchise. The franchise (as well as a Dynasty Owner) is likely to overpaid for a player who’s going to have a lot of games with 2 receptions for 35 yards with the occasional long reception and a TD. He has 10 games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the past three seasons and scored over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points six times. He’s a big play, boom or bust WR. Don’t be the Dynasty Owner overpaying for that and move on from MVS, either by getting rid of him in a trade or dropping him for free.

His teammate in Green Bay, Allen Lazard, is the next WR on this list.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR5126$675,000$7,753,779+ $7,078,779

Lazard’s market value is projected at 3 years and $23,261,337, or $7,753,779 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Lazard on their roster currently should expect to have to find just short of $7.08 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period, but Hold if no deal happens because you can likely trade him later on

Lazard has a very high market value for a restricted free agent (RFA). He played exceptionally well at the end of the 2021 season for Green Bay with an 83.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the final five games (16.6 points per game). He averaged 9.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game for the 2021 season (142.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 15 games played), a slight drop from his 9.8 points per game average in 2020 (97.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 10 games played).

At just $675,000 in salary, Lazard was a tremendous bargain Bench WR. He still has value at the $7.754 million salary if he stays in Green Bay as the WR2 with Rodgers and Davante Adams. Outside of Green Bay, he becomes someone who I’m more likely to want to trade right away than hold.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $5 and $7.5 Million per Year

The next lower salary WR range is between $5 million and $7.5 million per season. There are four players who fall into that range with the first one being A.J. Green.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR4233$6,000,000$7,011,160+ $1,011,160

Green’s market value is projected at 4 years and $28,044,639, or $7,011,160 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Green on their roster currently should expect to have to find only an extra $1.011 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

Another player with a surprisingly large market value. The slight increase in annual salary from $6 million to just over $7 million isn’t the surprising part. It’s the anticipated four year contract that sticks out for me. That seems like too much for a 33-year old WR who hasn’t topped 1,000 yards since 2017. Green did have over 1,000 yards receiving in six out of his first seven seasons with Cincinnati, but only had 523 receiving yards in a full season of games in 2020. He did have a bounce back 2021 season with 848 receiving yards for Arizona, an average of 9.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (156.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played).

The length of the contract and the salary combine to make Green overvalued at his age and likely level of production. I’d try to move him for anything of value before dropping him for free if a trade doesn’t materialize.

The next player in this salary range is Cedrick Wilson.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR4926$2,183,000$6,464,732+ $4,281,732

Wilson’s market value is projected at 3 years and $19,394,196, or $6,464,732 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s almost $4.3 million more in salary that Dynasty Owners with Wilson on their roster currently should expect to have to pay to keep him. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Keep him. Trade if you get a good offer and have sufficient WR depth

After missing the entire 2018 season with an injury, followed by two largely unproductive seasons, Wilson stepped up for the Cowboys in 2021 with the injury to Michael Gallup and had 146.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (9.2 points per game). Those stats are pretty good in an offense with Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz and bodes well for Wilson if he stays in Dallas with most of those players returning or move on to another team who might provide him with more opportunities.

He is rostered in just two-thirds (66.9%) of Dynasty Owner leagues, so trade offers after he gets a new contract may not be too plentiful. That’s fine as keeping Wilson with a new contract isn’t a crazy idea, but I’d be fine with trading him if someone offered a good deal as there are players who can produce at the same level for less salary.

Veteran WR T.Y. Hilton is the next player in this salary range.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR10632$8,000,000$6,290,550– $1,709,450

Hilton’s market value is projected at 2 years and $12,581,100, or $6,290,550 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Hilton on their roster currently should expect to see their salary cap reduced by $1.71 million when he signs his new contract. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

This is the same recommendation as in last week’s article for Jamison Crowder, but unlike Crowder, Hilton is expected to have a reduction in salary. Hilton is rostered in 39.6% of Dynasty Owner leagues at his current salary, so that may increase slightly with the lower annual salary. Dynasty Owners may also still think Hilton can regain his former glory from his first seven NFL seasons (2012-2018 when he had five 1,000 receiving yard seasons).

Unfortunately, the player who has missed 14 games over the past three seasons and only scored 74.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 is the one who will be getting the new contract. Hilton hasn’t caught more than four passes in a single game or had a 100 yard receiving game since Week 13 of the 2020 season. Shop him around and highlight the salary decrease, but trade offers will likely be minimal or non-existent, so you’ll probably just have to drop him.

The final WR in this range had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than any other WR on his NFL team in 2021. It’s Braxton Berrios from the New York Jets.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR4826$644,602$5,922,518+ $5,277,916

Berrios’ market value is projected at 4 years and $23,690,074, or $5,922,518 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Berrios on their roster currently should expect to have to find $5.278 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Hold for now. Value depends upon who signs him

For many Dynasty Owners, the emergence of Berrios was completely unexpected in 2021. However, his 2021 performance actually built upon what he started in 2020 when he had over 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (103.7) and two early-season games with 17.9 and 16.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points respectively. The receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns were slightly higher in 2021, but a large part of Berrios’ increase in Dynasty Owner fantasy points came from the 1,053 return yards and return TD he had in 2021, compared to only 253 return yards in 2020.

Similar to Deonte Hardy, Berrios retains some value as a returner due to the Dynasty Owner scoring system. If he re-signs with the Jets or another team uses him in a similar way as the Jets did last year, he may be worth holding. It’s possible that he’s the next Julian Edelman, or similar to Hunter Renfrow (who also returns kicks and was his team’s top WR in 2021). It’s also possible that he played well given the opportunity that might not be presented by another team. Of course, my opinion might be biased since Berrios went to Miami, and I saw him perform well for several years in college too. Take that into consideration when he signs that new contract.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Less Than $5 Million per Year

There are three WRs in this category and all of them are in roughly the $3 million salary range. Two out of the three have a market value contract for only one year and the third player has a market value for a two-year contract. There will be many more players who sign free agent contracts for under $5 million. It’s just these three players have Spotrac market values to evaluate.

The first WR in this range is Byron Pringle.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR5228$2,133,000$3,277,579+ $1,144,579

Pringle’s market value is projected at 1 year and $3,277,579 for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Pringle on their roster currently should expect to have to find about $1.145 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Hold if you’re rebuilding. Drop if you’re a contender.

This unique recommendation is based on the fact that he’s not going to hurt a rebuilding team much in 2022. After the season is over, you can drop him if his next contract is too much, or if he has a bad season with no harm done. Of course, he can be traded during the season if another Dynasty Owner wants him.

Contenders don’t need Practice Squad WRs making over $3 million right now and can drop him, but they might during the season. He was WR52 in 2021 and would have been a solid Bench WR. It was his best season by far with 140.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 17 games played (8.3 points per game).

The second WR in this range was also on Kansas City last year – DeMarcus Robinson.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR10927$1,127,500$2,943,971+ $1,816,471

Robinson’s market value is projected at 2 years and $5,887,942, or $2,943,971 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. If your team is one of the 38.5% of teams in Dynasty Owner leagues with Robinson on your roster, you should expect to have to find close to $1.82 million more to keep him on your team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

Robinson declined to WR109 with 69.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 17 games played (4.1 points per game) last season after consecutive WR70 finishes in 2020 and 2019. Even those seasons of 105.8 and 100.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points respectively meant that he averaged just 6.6 and 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in those seasons. Practice squad production but at a much higher salary, so dropping is advised, especially with the extra year on that contract. There will be plenty of Practice Squad WRs on one-year contracts of just over $1 million to replace him. His roster percentage means he’s not likely to draw much trade attention on his own, but can be added as a throw-in or to make salaries match up.

The final WR in this range is Kalif Raymond.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR5427$1,127,500$2,940,024+ $1,812,524

Raymond’s market value is projected at 1 year and $2,940,024 for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Raymond on their roster currently should expect to have to find about $1.81 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

Raymond had his best season in 2021 as part of an underwhelming Detroit receiving corps with 138.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played for an average of 8.65 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He had bounced around on several NFL practice squads for a few years before landing with the Lions. It is unlikely that he will replicate his success this past season in the future. As with Demarcus Robinson, practice squad production but at a much higher salary, so dropping is advised with plenty of Practice Squad WRs on one-year contracts of just over $1 million available to replace him.

Conclusion

That concludes the WRs with market values. There were 19 of them to go along with the one QB discussed who didn’t have a market value (Jameis Winston) and a baker’s dozen of RBs. For the lower salary WRs, it was a mixed bag of players and recommendations. Not surprising with the quantity of WRs available at plenty of salary figures. In contrast, RBs are more scarce and valuable, while there are always plenty of decent WRs available in the Free Agent Auction at one time.

We have two articles left as there are ten TEs with a market value, so I’ll split them up into two articles. No kicker article because there are no kicker market values. After the second TE article is published, it’ll be less than two weeks until NFL free agency and the start date of the 2022 Dynasty Owner season.

The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to the livestream afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.

Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I’ll write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Free Agent Friday: NFC North

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The pinnacle of football greatness has come and gone. I hope everyone enjoyed their Super Bowl Sunday last weekend. I know I sure did, but with one end comes a new beginning. The official end of a football season brings a renewed focus on what we are really here for…

“Value Dynasty Football”

Most of you have been active over the past month in between the end of the Dynasty Owner season and the NFL playoffs, but some haven’t, and this break is a great time to focus and start thinking of making a run for next year’s title. With that idea in mind, let’s talk about some important free agents you will need to have on your radar this off-season. Today we are talking about the NFC North.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Davante Adams29UFA$14,500,000$27,000,000
Robert Tonyan Jr.27UFA$3,384,000$8,000,000
Allen Lazard26RFA$675,000$6,000,000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27UFA$669,388$6,000,000

The top name to talk about for the Packers is obviously Davante Adams. While he should be the highest-paid wide receiver in football, I’m not convinced he will be. I think that the final number will be close to $27,000,000 which would put him as the second-highest-paid wide receiver (behind DeAndre Hopkins at $27.25 million annually). It’s hard to imagine Adams playing for another team, but I don’t think it’s totally off the table. A lot of Adams’ decision will come down to what Aaron Rodgers decides to do. In the end, I think both Rodgers and Adams return to Green Bay.

Robert Tonyan is another name that I will be keeping an eye on this off-season. He has quickly become a big name over the past two years. An abrupt end to his 2021 season will for sure leave a salty taste in his Dynasty Owners’ mouths. Not only that but missing over half of the season has to weigh heavily on whoever will be paying for his next contract. His current contract was a RFA tender worth $3,384,000, but as we know that will be expiring soon. I expect Tonyan to remain with the Packers, and I’d say he has earned himself a contract close to $8,000,000 per year.

Finally, we have two wide receivers. Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) are both up for a new contract. I think both players have been quite beneficial to the offense over the past few years, and they have both played above average. Because of that I say that they will both get new contracts around $6,000,000 per year. However, I don’t think they will both return to the Packers for the 2022 season. My best guess at this moment is that Lazard returns and MVS doesn’t. I also think that Green Bay will finally try to make a move for a true number two wide receiver. This player could be acquired via the draft or by free agency, but either way I’ll say that MVS is the player that gets squeezed out. Of course, this could all change if Rodgers or Adams don’t return.

Minnesota Vikings

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Wayne Gallman27UFA$990,000$1,500,000
Tyler Conklin26UFA$685,258$8,500,000

Two notable offensive free agents for the Vikings are Wayne Gallman and Tyler Conklin. Gallman was included in this section solely because he is on a cheap contract and is rostered in over 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues. I see Gallman moving on from the Vikings and finding a new team to be the backup running back for. His salary shouldn’t exceed more than 1.5 million dollars so feel free to continue rostering him for the moment.

Tyler Conklin is a little more of an interesting free agent. He is only 26 years old and has shown periods of explosiveness in his short career so far. I admit that he had a rather disappointing 2021 season as he finished as TE16. I expected him to finish inside the Top 10. Even with a somewhat disappointing finish, he will earn middle-tier tight end money ($8,000,000). Expect Conklin’s contract to increase by more than 10x.

Chicago Bears

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Allen Robinson28UFA$17,880,000$16,000,000
Andy Dalton34UFA$10,000,000$10,000,000

Both of these players are kind of sensitive subjects to approach. Allen Robinson had an abysmal season. If you remember going into the 2021 season, Robinson was touted as an ultra-safe player to draft. He was talked about as being the unsexy pick, but one that would almost certainly get you 1,000 receiving yards and 100 receptions. His upside was limited, but with that floor most people didn’t care. In the end, I don’t think I could have scripted a worse finish for Robinson. He finished as the WR90, and he never passed 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in any game last season. Changing quarterbacks, injuries and poor play are all to blame for his trainwreck of a season. Robinson is still rostered in over 87 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues which is still probably the correct move, but it has to be hard to stomach if you have him. Expect a slight pay cut for Robinson in 2022. I’m anticipating something like $32,000,000 for 2 years. I don’t see this contract being with the Bears though.

Andy Dalton is a tough case. He is, in my opinion, one of the most capable backup quarterbacks in the NFL. He is an average quarterback and that is really all you can ask for in a backup. He played in eight games in 2021, and he was largely a non-factor for Dynasty Owner scoring. I expect he will receive a very similar contract to the previous year. One year for 10 million dollars is a very fair price for him.

Detroit Lions

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Josh Reynolds27UFA$1,750,000$5,000,000
Kalif Raymond27UFA$1,127,500$4,000,000

A couple of Lions make the free agent list in this early off-season. First is Josh Reynolds. Reynolds’ first year with the Lions was inefficient yet still a decent value. Anytime a wide receiver makes less than 2 million dollars, they are bound to be a value with even a moderate fantasy total. Despite his lackluster 2021, he will likely make more than 4 million dollars per year in 2022.

Kalif Raymond has been a journeyman wide receiver for his entire career. He has changed teams six total times, and it’s likely to be a seventh time after this free agency process is finished. The undrafted free agent has made a good living for himself on low-tier contracts, but I think his next one will be the biggest yet. I expect a contract north of $3,000,000 per year up to $4,000,000.

If there is any player that you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Prospect Preview: Garrett Wilson

Position: WR

College: Ohio State

Height: 6’ 0”

Weight: 192lbs

Age: 21

247 Rating: 0.9903 (5 Stars)

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

The Rundown:

Viewed as one of the top of the prospects for this draft class since high school, Garrett Wilson has done nothing but impress throughout his time at Ohio State. Despite being in a crowded room of Chris Olave, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and at one point Jameson Williams, Wilson has been able to shine and produce for the Buckeyes. Now as one of the top prospects in this year’s draft, do we really expect him to be one of the best?

College Production:

Over Wilson’s first two years with the Buckeyes, he combined for 1,155 yards and 73 receptions. Good production for the opportunities that he had, and during that time he flashed that he was capable of much more. In 2021, he surpassed Chris Olave as the #1 receiver and finished with 70 catches for just over 1,000 yards while finding the end zone 13 times (1 rushing). In the last four games of the season (against Top 25 teams) he had 34 catches for 453 yards and 6 touchdowns (plus the 51-yard rushing TD), a great ending to his final season.

Strengths:

  • Route Technician- A true three-level threat, Wilson wins all over the field. Inside and outside, short and deep; his ability to create separation throughout his routes often leaves defenders a step or two behind by the time the ball is released. Wilson ran a full route tree in college and has shown great pacing leading up to the top of his routes, and then explosiveness as he makes his way out of his breaks.
  • Long Reach- Despite coming in at 6’ 0”, Wilson plays much larger than his listed size. Usually when you hear this about a prospect you think they play heavier than their size, but I wouldn’t be so quick to say that about Wilson. Wilson plays taller, wider, and longer. He is great in contested catch situations and is very comfortable catching the ball outside of his frame. This combined with his ability to create separation could make him a quarterback’s best friend.
  • Soft Hands- As silly as it sounds, many players don’t catch with their hands. Many wideouts rely on using their body to corral the ball into their arms. Wilson has no issues attacking the ball in the air and using his hands to pluck the ball and tuck it safely away.

Weaknesses:

  • Weakness?- Wilson doesn’t really have many issues that I would really point out as true weaknesses. All around a very complete receiver. While things can always be improved upon, Wilson is one of the most pro-ready receivers I have seen as a prospect recently. Wilson gives you not only a safe floor, but plenty of upside, making him a great prospect anywhere in your rookie draft.

Things to Watch:

Wilson may not be the fastest receiver on the field, but he has plenty of athleticism for the next level. I’m very interested to see what his exact numbers are though, because as fluid and smooth as he looks, he doesn’t always show an elite level of speed and burst. If the 40-yard dash looks as good as his three-cone drill, I doubt anyone will have much to say.

Projected Round/Contract:  

A bona-fide first-rounder, I haven’t seen a single mock draft without Wilson being selected in the first 25 picks, often times within the Top 15. The draft capital will certainly be there, and there’s a good chance Wilson is the first receiver off the board come Draft Day. His pro-ready profile is going to make a lot of teams very excited about his chance at immediately making an impact on their offense.

His contract will likely look pretty similar to Devonta Smith’s ($5,035,348). This will give his Dynasty Owners a solid $5 million a year salary to work with, which could be a good value for the production they could likely get from him in his rookie year.

Team Fits:  

As with many of the top wideout prospects, Wilson is rather landing spot proof. He doesn’t need a specific style of offense to fit his strengths and most any coach will be able to use him.  But as always, there are some teams out there that could really use a player like Wilson. For example, with an aging Jarvis Landry ($15,100,000) and a now OBJ sized hole in the offense, Baker Mayfield ($8,170,745) needs some help. Wilson is an immediate impact player for that offense and would be able to help that team find some rhythm in the passing game. At pick 13, the Browns have quickly become the consensus partner for Wilson.

If Wilson ends up sliding a bit on Draft Day, a team that would be more than happy to scoop up some receiver value would be the New Orleans Saints (pick #18). Long gone are the days of Drew Brees and Sean Peyton, now the future is cap-strapped and full of unknown player personnel. If the Saints want to find a veteran quarterback and give him a weapon outside of Michael Thomas ($19,250,000), who has plenty of his own question marks, then Wilson would be one of the best possible matches. A great route-runner like Thomas, Wilson would be able to grow under the tutelage of Thomas, another former Buckeye, and eventually maybe even take over that role for the future Saints offense.

Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind).

Rebuilding with Our Dynasty Owners

Team – The Black and Yellow – League #27451

Owner – Bryan Peck

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, the 2021 season is officially in the books and the Rams are now World Champions! I was a little worried about my prediction after OBJ went down but as expected Aaron Donald and company took over the game. The Rams’ Super Bowl obsession is officially complete! I unfortunately have no more football games to talk about but there are numerous things on the Dynasty Owner schedule that will keep everyone entertained. In the coming months we will have free agency, rookie drafts, endless trading, startup drafts, and much more ahead. Be sure to stay tuned to make sure you get the upper hand on your league mates.

I know I tend to ramble in my intros, but today we have a ton to cover, so I will jump right in. As mentioned last week, I will be covering one of Bryan Peck’s (@bbpckdancer) rebuilding rosters and instead of breaking down the full roster right away and boring you to death, I will be sure to include each player in the categories. I also had Bryan ask a few questions he wanted answered for his team and I will cover each below. One thing I do want to mention is that just because a player falls in a certain category for Bryan does not mean the same for your rebuilding roster. For instance, both Bryan and I have D.J. Moore in a rebuild, but I am going to tell Bryan to trade Moore while I am going to keep him on my personal team as a building block. Your roster and cap situation has a ton to do with what players you need to keep or trade.

Building Blocks

  1. Patrick Mahomes – $45,000,000
  2. Travis Etienne – $3,224,526
  3. Justin Jefferson – $3,280,701
  4. Pat Freiermuth – $1,507,045
  5. Najee Harris – $3,261,862 (potential trade candidate)

Bryan has excellent building blocks on this team and has several ways he can go about rebuilding this team. I do feel he will have to decide between running at a championship this year and taking one more year to fill out the roster before going all in. An important thing to remember is Patrick Mahomes contract will only become more friendly as seasons pass which will continuously gain Bryan more flexibility.

Hold these Players

  1. Robert Tonyan – Free Agent
  2. Tommy Tremble – $1,231,608
  3. Deonte Harty – Free Agent
  4. Tylan Wallace – $1,041,341

While Bryan does not have any potential stars in this category, I do feel there are players that can consistently contribute over time. Robert Tonyan is my favorite sure thing on the list and would not trade him until he is back healthy. Tommy Tremble is another player I am high on and would not trade as he will not return any type of value at this time. Players with high ceilings that send no value back in trades are players who rebuilding owners should either target in a trade or hold if already rostered.

Players to Trade Away

  1. D.J. Moore – $11,116,000 (Fifth Year Option)
  2. Jerick McKinnon – Free Agent
  3. Zach Ertz – Free Agent
  4. Kyle Trask – $1,383,834

As I mentioned earlier, D.J. Moore is a trade candidate on this roster. The reason for this is because while D.J. Moore is a fantastic receiver, he is set to play on his $11.116 million fifth year option and may get a new deal this off-season. Bryan’s team could use some extra cap space to add depth players to this roster even with the Amnesty candidate you will see later in the article. Kyle Trask is the player on this list who needs immediate attention as I do not see the ready to win Buccaneers rolling with him next season. Trade him while it looks like he should have value even though we all know he will not in the coming months.

Players who Can Be Cut

  1. Greg Ward – Free Agent
  2. Marquez Stevenson – $913,136
  3. Thaddeus Moss – Free Agent

As you can see there is not a whole lot to talk about here. I would look to cut these guys and replace them with players that have more potential in the Free Agent Auction, such as Isaiah McKenzie or Tre’Quan Smith. Both of those players have cheap 2021 contracts on the books now, but are free agents in 2022.

Amnesty Provision Candidate

  1. Russell Wilson – $35,000,000

One way to easily keep D.J. Moore is by using the Amnesty Provision on Russell Wilson, but I do not think that is the route I would go unless I were planning to go for it this season. The better move is to trade Moore, amnesty Wilson and have loads of available cap space to remain flexible and take on a bad deal if needed.

Questions from Bryan Peck

Q. Based on the constructed roster as is, which players would you consider as building blocks, trade assets, hold for now, and droppable players? If players are under the trade asset category, what would be the value you are asking for those players?

A.  The first part of this question is obviously answered earlier in the article, but I love the second part. The players I have listed may not bring back a ton of value but there are some good deals to be had. The main player I would look to trade is D.J. Moore and yes, a very solid case can be made for the opposite. Moore is on his fifth year option and may get a new deal this off-season. While using an Amnesty Provision on Russell Wilson will save you a bunch of cap space, I feel you can turn Moore into a high first round pick, even if you must throw in a third round pick to get it done. This will enable you to save cap space while potentially drafting someone with a much higher ceiling and would target this year’s draft when doing so.

Zach Ertz is another player I would look to trade as he just upped his value quite a bit with the Cardinals. It may be beneficial to wait until he re-signs in Arizona before trading but either way, he is someone I would move on from. As far as value for Ertz I would look for a second round pick back or find a way to package Ertz, picks, and Moore for a player like Kyle Pitts ($8,227,624).

The last player I will talk about here is Najee Harris and I happen to know Bryan is a huge Najee Harris fan (hint his team name is The Black and Yellow). If Bryan decides to take 2022 to focus on adding depth and rounding out his roster, I would consider moving Harris for a massive return. Remember picks can always be flipped for a win now player and Najee will certainly hurt your draft positioning next season.

Q. What depth players would you target: age range, positions, preferred contracts for players?

A. I will break this answer down into 3 separate sections to ensure I cover each part. The depth players I would consider for this roster are high-end handcuff running backs to trade away when they hit, young receivers with enormous potential for 2023 and beyond (think Gabriel Davis this season), and young tight ends like Tommy Tremble who will get better as they develop.

In any rebuild I will always target younger players. The age range can vary by position, for instance I would stay away from running backs past their second to third year in the league, while age 26 is my sweet spot for receivers.

The contract question is a bit loaded as I feel the answer will always be cheaper is better, but it is perfectly ok and usually beneficial for rebuilding owners to trade for a bad contract in return for young assets or draft capital.

Q. Based on the current roster as is, should this team be considered in slow rebuild mode of more than three years, fast rebuild of 1-2 years, a one and done playoff team, or contending for a championship?

A. A great question to ask as most users are usually biased when evaluating their own personal teams. On this team I would personally go the one and done route. For anyone wondering, that means Bryan will be competitive but will not make it out of the first round of the playoffs barring luck and if he plays his cards right, he may even have a bonus pick to win. As hard as it may be for Bryan, I think in this scenario the best bet is to move on from Najee Harris and target one of the extremely talented running backs in the 2023 draft class to replace him. I know it is painful moving on from a star player on your favorite team but top end running backs are extremely productive as soon as they enter the league making them highly volatile. If you do decide to keep Najee around it may be beneficial to make a run this year vs wasting Year 2 of Najee Harris. I also see Bryan winning too many games to get a high-end draft pick if he does decide to keep D.J. Moore and Najee Harris around.

Summary

Overall, Bryan has this team in a great position moving forward with a potential six building blocks on the roster. I know it may seem a little counterintuitive to move on from two of his highly productive players, but I think the assets he receives will outweigh what he is trading away. Bryan has also done an excellent job keeping all his team’s draft capital on top of picking up extra picks and now he can use that and his building blocks to build a true powerhouse. If Bryan goes the route I would, he will enter 2022 with the ability to build around Patrick Mahomes whose deal will get better as it continues to age, Justin Jefferson, Pat Freiermuth, and two first round picks in 2022. If Bryan does move on from Moore and Harris, he could have a potential seven first round picks over the next three years leaving him more than enough fire power to become a powerhouse while having cap flexibility.

Let’s talk about a few goals I would set for the 2022 season in the scenario Bryan will trade D.J. Moore and potentially Najee Harris. The first goal I would set is to trade either the Number 1 or Number 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft for a quarterback early in their rookie deal plus a nice sweetener, or he can move the top pick for a 2023 first round pick and a good young receiver. Next, I would find another top end receiver to pair with Justin Jefferson in the upcoming rookie draft (hello, Treylon Burks or Garrett Wilson). Once you have that accomplished, I would start to look for a young QB for your practice squad spot. Davis Mills could be a cheap gamble that pays off, or you can look to the draft as well, hell you could even do both. The last thing I would try to do is find another tight end to develop, or trade for a sure-fire tight end like I mentioned earlier with Kyle Pitts. If you can accomplish these goals as well as find some depth for your team, you will be in great shape for a 2023 championship run as you will only need to target a couple running backs, especially if Etienne turns out to be special.

Overall, I would hope to be close to set at every position aside from running back heading into 2023 when it will be time to draft and trade for multiple running backs. I know some may say Bryan should run at a title this season with the draft capital he has, but I think he has an opportunity to build an absolute long term powerhouse vs a one or two year run if he makes the right moves by stocking up on a ton of top level talent on rookie contracts.

If any of you have a team you would like me to cover please contact me on Twitter and I will gladly help. Be sure to check out the other articles from Steve, Nate, and Matt throughout the week. Thank you all for reading and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

Free Agent Market Values: High Salary WRs

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Now that the Super Bowl is over, Dynasty Owners can turn their total focus to the Dynasty Owner off-season and upcoming free agency period. We’ll give the Rams’ fans an extra day or two to celebrate and Bengals’ fans the same time period to get over what happened, but they don’t want to wait too long to start thinking about the off-season as things will start moving soon.

NFL free agents can re-sign with their current team, or wait until March 16th and sign with a new one. Those new contracts, as well as the contract extensions signed during the 2021 season, will take effect for Dynasty Owners on March 18th. We don’t have a finalized 2022 salary cap yet since the NFL hasn’t finalized theirs, but it’s anticipated to be $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap).

In other dynasty leagues, you may start thinking about rookies and which ones you want on your team, but Dynasty Owner is different because rookies are harder to evaluate because you have to take their contract into effect. That’s why NFL free agency is more important in Dynasty Owner than a regular dynasty league. Players changing teams might impact how much you value a certain player on your regular dynasty league team, but you’re unlikely to drop a player solely based on the fact that he switched teams. However, in Dynasty Owner, a new team means a new contract and that new contract might make a player too expensive to take up a roster spot on your Dynasty Owner team that has to stay under the salary cap.

The contract increases (and in some rare cases, contract decreases) will impact the Dynasty Owner’s decision on whether to keep that player and his new contract on their team. If they don’t want the player and his new contract, they can trade the player or drop them for free during the contract change window (currently seven days, but possibly going up). There are a lot of free agents out there who will be getting new contracts and Dynasty Owners can start planning for their contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).

After discussing mostly RBs for the past two weeks, it’s time to turn our focus to the WRs for a pair of articles. Since not everyone has the time to go check out the market value for all of the impending free agents or even just the 19 WRs with a Spotrac market value, I’ll look for you. This article  will give their Market Value estimates, compare it to the player’s 2021 Dynasty Owner salary and make a recommendation for what to do with the player at that new salary. Since there are 19 free agent WRs to go over, the high salary WRs ($10 million or more average annual salaries) will go first, followed by the lower salary WRs. The high salary RBs had market values of over $5 million and none were in the $10 million or more range. In contrast, for WRs, we have nine who are expected to command annual salaries of $10 million or more.

Before we get to the part about how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points, let me brag a bit about my Super Bowl prediction. Last week, I predicted a Rams victory by a score of 23-19, which was only one point off of the exact final score of 23-20. Check out last week’s article if you don’t believe it. I thought there would be a bit more offense by the Bengals being stuffed in the red zone leading to more field goals for them than happened, which is why the Bengals’ score ended up being off by a point. Enough about that, let’s congratulate Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and the rest of the Los Angeles Rams for winning the Super Bowl!

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, Average Draft Positions (ADPs), and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 14th. Spotrac has market values available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Paid Over $20 Million Per Year

There are a lot of free agent WRs hitting the market in 2022. Out of all of them, there is one who is viewed as above the rest and worth a contract of more than $20 million per season. Right now, there are only three WRs in the over $20 million salary bracket (DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Keenan Allen with Amari Cooper making exactly $20 million), but Davante Adams is expected to join them for the 2022 season.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR229$14,500,000$25,867,703+ $11,367,703

Adams’ market value is projected at 5 years and $129,338,515, or $25,867,703 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Adams on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $11.37 million to keep him on their team. That’s a significant portion of the expected $17.99 million increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him

This is a tough decision. On one hand, you have the WR2 for the 2021 season, the WR1 in 2020 even though he missed two games and the WR23 in 2019 when he missed four games. He has over 1,000 yards in three of the past four seasons and only missed by three yards in 2019 in 12 games played. He has scored 10 or more TDs in five of the past six seasons. Obviously, he is a major talent who won’t turn 30 until near the end of next season. In a regular dynasty league, I’m not sure that you even entertain a trade for Adams.

On the other hand, it’s not a regular dynasty league, it’s Dynasty Owner and salaries matter. Adams is estimated to make nearly $26 million next year as well as the following four seasons. In 2022, he will be the second highest non-QB salary behind $27.25 million for Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins. His anticipated salary increase of $11.37 million is over three-fifths (63%) of the expected increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap of $17.99 million. To keep Adams, your Dynasty Owner team is likely going to have to drop or trade other players and find more bargain salaries to make it work.

The fact that Adams may be playing without Aaron Rodgers for the first time in his career hasn’t even been mentioned yet. It’s an important consideration. Is Adams going to continue get over 10 targets per game as he’s averaged the past four seasons with Rodgers in Green Bay? Maybe next year, but what about 2027 when he’s pushing 35 years old? Those are things that you need to consider in Dynasty Owner that you might not think about in a regular dynasty league. Of course, he and Rodgers could continue to team up in Green Bay, or somewhere else, for another year (or more) and continue their high level of performance.

Dynasty Owners with Adams should trade him as soon as they can. His value is high, the possibility of playing with Rodgers and staying in Green Bay is still there. Another Dynasty Owner in your league is going to want Adams and will give you something of value in return for him. It may even turn into a bidding war for his services, which will drive up the price.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $15 and $20 Million per Year

The range of $15 million to $20 million is pretty wide as in terms of market values, the highest projected contract is $18.1 million per season and the lowest is $16.3 million, but we’ll stick with that range. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Tyler Lockett signed a 4-year, $69 million extension ($17.25 million per year) with the Seattle Seahawks and Courtland Sutton signed a 4-year, $60.8 million extension ($15.2 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts will kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners. The other three have market values on Spotrac in this range with Chris Godwin having the highest.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR1625$15,983,000$18,195,988+ $2,212,988

Godwin’s market value is projected at 5 years and $90,979,940, or $18,195,988 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Godwin on their roster currently should expect to have to find only an extra $2.2 million to keep him on their team. He was on a one-year, transition tag deal last season to try and win another Super Bowl ring with the G.O.A.T.. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Keep him, unless you get a great trade offer

If he leaves Tampa, the team that signs Godwin will likely make him their WR1 receiver and a focal point of their passing offense. He should have every chance to succeed and be worth that contract. If he stays in Tampa, he will still be playing with Mike Evans and under Bruce Arians. In three years with Arians as his coach, Godwin has been the WR16 last season while playing in only 14 games, the WR30 in 2020 in just 12 games and the WR2 in 2019 in 14 games with Jameis Winston at QB.

On the negative side, he is coming off surgery for a torn ACL. Some may argue that he benefitted from Evans’ presence and might not be a WR1 on his own. If he stays with Tampa Bay, it will be without Brady. Finally, five years is a long time and maybe he won’t be worth the money at the end of the deal. None of these concerns are strong enough to trade him unless the offer is great and difficult to pass up.

The other two WRs in this salary range are Mike Williams and Allen Robinson. Both have very similar market values with Williams’ being slightly higher, so we’ll talk about him first.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR1227$15,680,000$16,739,980+ $1,059,980

Williams’ market value is projected at 4 years and $66,959,920, or $16,739,980 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s just $1.06 million more in salary that Dynasty Owners with Williams on their roster currently should have to find to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

His WR12 finish in 2021 was easily his best fantasy season in his five year NFL career. However, it was built off of a great stretch of four games in the first five weeks in which he had a total of 117.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (29.25 per game). In the other 12 games he played in, he had 132.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11.05 per game). He had nine double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games in 2021, but in only two of those games did he fail to score a TD. In contrast, his teammate Keenan Allen was the WR11 and had 15 double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games and only scored six TDs. For a contract that would make put him in the top 10-12 WRs in annual salary, I need those Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a weekly basis. Williams isn’t a guy who’s going to do that for your Dynasty Owner team.

Allen Robinson is the final WR in this salary range.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR9028$17,880,000$16,376,209 – $1,503,791

Robinson’s market value is projected at 4 years and $65,504,836, or $16,376,209 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to Robinson during his terrible 2021 season (still rostered in 87.0% of Dynasty Owner leagues) will get a salary savings of $1.5 million if they keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

This is my assessment and what I would do if I had Robinson on any of my Dynasty Owner teams. I don’t have him and think that Dynasty Owners who stuck with Robinson throughout the 2021 season as he plummeted down to WR90 from WR9 in 2020 and WR8 in 2019 are more likely to hang on to him. They likely want to see if he turns it around. If the Dynasty Owner in your league drafted Robinson last year, or picked him up in a trade during the season, they might be more willing to part with Robinson than someone who had him in 2020. I’ll assume many Dynasty Owners will hold on to Robinson at this slightly lower salary, so if you want him on your Dynasty Owner team, you will have to pay more than you will now.

This assessment holds pretty much regardless of his landing spot as the Bears no longer have Matt Nagy as coach, but still have a QB of the future in Justin Fields. Robinson was a Top 10 QB in Dynasty Owner with Chase Daniel, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky at QB. That says he’s not dependent on having a great QB throwing him the ball to provide great production.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $10 and $15 Million per Year

The range of $10 million to $15 million is also wide as all three WRs with those market values in that range are really in between $13.2 million and $11.9 million. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Robby Anderson is at the high end as he already signed a 2-year, $29.5 million extension ($14.75 million per year) with the Carolina Panthers and Tim Patrick is at the lower end with his 3-year, $34 million extension ($11.33 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners.

Out of the four free agent WRs who have market values in this range, the largest average annual salary amount is projected to be earned by Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ).

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR6029$1,250,000$13,179,995+ $11,929,995

OBJ’s market value is projected at 2 years and $26,359,990, or $13,179,995 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to him throughout the 2021 season were originally paying him $18 million, then saw his salary drop down to $1.25 million when he was released by Cleveland and picked up by the Rams for an in-season savings of $16.75 million. His salary increase is projected at $11.93 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

My feelings on OBJ have been the same for a while. He wasn’t worth $18 million, and I suggested using an Amnesty Provision on him way back in March of 2020. He was the first player on my January 2021 list of Players to Avoid Drafting in 2021. Finally, my article titled “How to Rid Your Roster of an Unwanted Player” advocated getting rid of him when he was released by Cleveland before the Rams picked him up for just $1.25 million back in early November

After playing well for the Rams in eight games with 87.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (10.9 per game), he stepped it up in the NFL playoffs and will likely parlay that into a new high-salary contract. His trade value will be higher now than later as the glow of his playoff performance fades during the NFL off-season.

That last paragraph was obviously written before the Super Bowl. The best time to trade OBJ would have been after his first quarter TD as he injured his knee in the second quarter and didn’t return to play. This injury may change his market value, but regardless he is a NFL free agent, one NFL team will sign him, and Dynasty Owners will have to figure out what to do at that point.

Jamison Crowder has the next highest WR market value.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR6828$9,500,000$12,345,747+ $2,845,747

Crowder’s market value is projected at 4 years and $49,382,988, or $12,345,747 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Crowder on their roster currently should expect to have to find $2.846 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

At his current $9.5 million salary, Crowder is only rostered in 32.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Adding nearly $3 million on top of that for four years so the contract extends until Crowder will be 33 years of age won’t help that roster percentage or in finding a trade partner. At the height of his career, Crowder was the W27 in 2019 with 197.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (12.35 points per game). His average Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game was higher in 2020 at 15.05 per game, but he only played 12 games and finished as the WR35. Poor QB play hasn’t helped Crowder during his time in New York, but he was the Jets’ top receiver both of those years and that’s certainly not happening anywhere else in the NFL. Shop him around, but trade offers will be minimal or non-existent, so you’ll likely just have to drop him.

The final three WRs have market values of just under $12 million per year. Since all of them are finishing up their rookie contracts, each will be making at least $10 million more next year. Despite playing only four games in 2021, D.J. Chark has the highest market value.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR15025$1,111,807$11,906,373+ $10,794,566

Chark’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,625,492, or $11,906,373 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Chark on their roster only got four games of service from him in 2021 and should expect to have to find nearly $10.8 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team in 2022. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

Chark was a productive WR for the Jaguars in both 2019 and 2020 and started off the 2021 season with two good games before fracturing his ankle in Week 4 and missing the rest of the season. If you drafted Chark, you likely spent a pretty early draft pick to get him (ADP 80.5 in 2021 and 85.8 in 2020), so the talent was supposed to be there at a low salary of $1,111,807. The talent is still there, and he should be in a much better situation than Jacksonville. The main stumbling block is the extra salary. Yes, $11.9 million is a nice salary, but it won’t even put him in the top 25 in WR salary. There are better values out there, but unlike RBs, there’s no reason to automatically trade away a young WR who is getting his second contract. Holding Chark to see how he fares in his first year at his new salary is reasonable. He can always be traded away for something if he doesn’t play well or even dropped with an Amnesty Provision since his contract will have nearly $36 million left on it.

Next on the just under $12 million per year salary list is Christian Kirk.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR2725$1,473,717$11,893,133+ $10,419,416

Kirk’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,572,532, or $11,893,133 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $13,240 less per year than Chark, so don’t be surprised if they sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.42 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

The same recommendation as Chark, but if you have both of them on your Dynasty Owner team and can only hold on to one of them, I’d choose Kirk. Kirk has performed well every season and averaged over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in all four seasons from 2018 to 2021. In 44 games over the past three seasons, he only scored 14 TDs, but had 26 games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Kirk was a great value on his rookie contract and can still help your Dynasty Owner team win, it’s just that he’s going to cost more in salary now. Fortunately, the increase in the salary cap gives you the space to keep a couple of players who will earn a salary increase. He’s unlikely to singlehandedly win your team a League Championship, but he can be an important piece in the FLEX position or as a bye week and injury replacement in the Starting lineup, so holding on to him is advised.

Finally, our list of $10 million or more per year free agent WRs ends with Michael Gallup.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR8425$880,995$11,870,671+ $10,989,676

Gallup’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,482,684, or $11,870,671 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $22,462 less per year than Kirk and $35,702 less per year than Chark. All three of them might sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.99 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep Gallup on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

The same recommendation as Chark and Kirk. Gallup played in only 9 games in 2021 after playing in 46 out of 48 games in his first three seasons. His WR ranking has slipped from WR22 in 2019 to WR38 in 2020 to WR84 in 2021. He dropped from averaging 15.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 to 10.8 per game in 2020 and 10.2 in 2021 due to the presence of CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys lineup. Being able to average double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a team with Lamb, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott along with the emergence of Dalton Schultz is a good sign that Gallup can be productive if he remains in Dallas or moves elsewhere in free agency. Staying in Dallas would reduce his value, but it would make the possibility of him turning into a bust at his new salary a lot less likely. A new home could unlock his full potential and make him a bargain. That alone is a good reason to hold on to Gallup.

Conclusion

We have nine free agent WRs who are expected to sign contracts of more than $10 million per season in free agency. However, the gap in total contract amount is wide as it ranges from as much as $129.34 million (Davante Adams) to as little as $26.36 million (Odell Beckham Jr.). Out of the nine WRs mentioned, eight of them are expected to retain a high roster percentage in Dynasty Owner and have at least some value.

As mentioned at the beginning of this article, there are a total of 19 WRs with Spotrac market values. The final ten will be highlighted next week as they all have market values of less than $10 million per year. The players on the high salary WR list were pretty much as anticipated, while there are some surprising WRs who don’t have a market value as well as vice versa. Read next week’s article to find out who made the list and who didn’t.

The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.

Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday right now as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Now that the Super Bowl is over, Dynasty Owners can turn their total focus to the Dynasty Owner off-season and upcoming free agency period. We’ll give the Rams’ fans an extra day or two to celebrate and Bengals’ fans the same time period to get over what happened, but they don’t want to wait too long to start thinking about the off-season as things will start moving soon.

NFL free agents can re-sign with their current team, or wait until March 16th and sign with a new one. Those new contracts, as well as the contract extensions signed during the 2021 season, will take effect for Dynasty Owners on March 18th. We don’t have a finalized 2022 salary cap yet since the NFL hasn’t finalized theirs, but it’s anticipated to be $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap).

In other dynasty leagues, you may start thinking about rookies and which ones you want on your team, but Dynasty Owner is different because rookies are harder to evaluate because you have to take their contract into effect. That’s why NFL free agency is more important in Dynasty Owner than a regular dynasty league. Players changing teams might impact how much you value a certain player on your regular dynasty league team, but you’re unlikely to drop a player solely based on the fact that he switched teams. However, in Dynasty Owner, a new team means a new contract and that new contract might make a player too expensive to take up a roster spot on your Dynasty Owner team that has to stay under the salary cap.

The contract increases (and in some rare cases, contract decreases) will impact the Dynasty Owner’s decision on whether to keep that player and his new contract on their team. If they don’t want the player and his new contract, they can trade the player or drop them for free during the contract change window (currently seven days, but possibly going up). There are a lot of free agents out there who will be getting new contracts and Dynasty Owners can start planning for their contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).

After discussing mostly RBs for the past two weeks, it’s time to turn our focus to the WRs for a pair of articles. Since not everyone has the time to go check out the market value for all of the impending free agents or even just the 19 WRs with a Spotrac market value, I’ll look for you. This article  will give their Market Value estimates, compare it to the player’s 2021 Dynasty Owner salary and make a recommendation for what to do with the player at that new salary. Since there are 19 free agent WRs to go over, the high salary WRs ($10 million or more average annual salaries) will go first, followed by the lower salary WRs. The high salary RBs had market values of over $5 million and none were in the $10 million or more range. In contrast, for WRs, we have nine who are expected to command annual salaries of $10 million or more.

Before we get to the part about how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points, let me brag a bit about my Super Bowl prediction. Last week, I predicted a Rams victory by a score of 23-19, which was only one point off of the exact final score of 23-20. Check out last week’s article if you don’t believe it. I thought there would be a bit more offense by the Bengals being stuffed in the red zone leading to more field goals for them than happened, which is why the Bengals’ score ended up being off by a point. Enough about that, let’s congratulate Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and the rest of the Los Angeles Rams for winning the Super Bowl!

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, Average Draft Positions (ADPs), and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 14th. Spotrac has market values available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Paid Over $20 Million Per Year

There are a lot of free agent WRs hitting the market in 2022. Out of all of them, there is one who is viewed as above the rest and worth a contract of more than $20 million per season. Right now, there are only three WRs in the over $20 million salary bracket (DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Keenan Allen with Amari Cooper making exactly $20 million), but Davante Adams is expected to join them for the 2022 season.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR229$14,500,000$25,867,703+ $11,367,703

Adams’ market value is projected at 5 years and $129,338,515, or $25,867,703 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Adams on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $11.37 million to keep him on their team. That’s a significant portion of the expected $17.99 million increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him

This is a tough decision. On one hand, you have the WR2 for the 2021 season, the WR1 in 2020 even though he missed two games and the WR23 in 2019 when he missed four games. He has over 1,000 yards in three of the past four seasons and only missed by three yards in 2019 in 12 games played. He has scored 10 or more TDs in five of the past six seasons. Obviously, he is a major talent who won’t turn 30 until near the end of next season. In a regular dynasty league, I’m not sure that you even entertain a trade for Adams.

On the other hand, it’s not a regular dynasty league, it’s Dynasty Owner and salaries matter. Adams is estimated to make nearly $26 million next year as well as the following four seasons. In 2022, he will be the second highest non-QB salary behind $27.25 million for Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins. His anticipated salary increase of $11.37 million is over three-fifths (63%) of the expected increase in the Dynasty Owner salary cap of $17.99 million. To keep Adams, your Dynasty Owner team is likely going to have to drop or trade other players and find more bargain salaries to make it work.

The fact that Adams may be playing without Aaron Rodgers for the first time in his career hasn’t even been mentioned yet. It’s an important consideration. Is Adams going to continue get over 10 targets per game as he’s averaged the past four seasons with Rodgers in Green Bay? Maybe next year, but what about 2027 when he’s pushing 35 years old? Those are things that you need to consider in Dynasty Owner that you might not think about in a regular dynasty league. Of course, he and Rodgers could continue to team up in Green Bay, or somewhere else, for another year (or more) and continue their high level of performance.

Dynasty Owners with Adams should trade him as soon as they can. His value is high, the possibility of playing with Rodgers and staying in Green Bay is still there. Another Dynasty Owner in your league is going to want Adams and will give you something of value in return for him. It may even turn into a bidding war for his services, which will drive up the price.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $15 and $20 Million per Year

The range of $15 million to $20 million is pretty wide as in terms of market values, the highest projected contract is $18.1 million per season and the lowest is $16.3 million, but we’ll stick with that range. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Tyler Lockett signed a 4-year, $69 million extension ($17.25 million per year) with the Seattle Seahawks and Courtland Sutton signed a 4-year, $60.8 million extension ($15.2 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts will kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners. The other three have market values on Spotrac in this range with Chris Godwin having the highest.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR1625$15,983,000$18,195,988+ $2,212,988

Godwin’s market value is projected at 5 years and $90,979,940, or $18,195,988 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Godwin on their roster currently should expect to have to find only an extra $2.2 million to keep him on their team. He was on a one-year, transition tag deal last season to try and win another Super Bowl ring with the G.O.A.T.. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Keep him, unless you get a great trade offer

If he leaves Tampa, the team that signs Godwin will likely make him their WR1 receiver and a focal point of their passing offense. He should have every chance to succeed and be worth that contract. If he stays in Tampa, he will still be playing with Mike Evans and under Bruce Arians. In three years with Arians as his coach, Godwin has been the WR16 last season while playing in only 14 games, the WR30 in 2020 in just 12 games and the WR2 in 2019 in 14 games with Jameis Winston at QB.

On the negative side, he is coming off surgery for a torn ACL. Some may argue that he benefitted from Evans’ presence and might not be a WR1 on his own. If he stays with Tampa Bay, it will be without Brady. Finally, five years is a long time and maybe he won’t be worth the money at the end of the deal. None of these concerns are strong enough to trade him unless the offer is great and difficult to pass up.

The other two WRs in this salary range are Mike Williams and Allen Robinson. Both have very similar market values with Williams’ being slightly higher, so we’ll talk about him first.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR1227$15,680,000$16,739,980+ $1,059,980

Williams’ market value is projected at 4 years and $66,959,920, or $16,739,980 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s just $1.06 million more in salary that Dynasty Owners with Williams on their roster currently should have to find to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

His WR12 finish in 2021 was easily his best fantasy season in his five year NFL career. However, it was built off of a great stretch of four games in the first five weeks in which he had a total of 117.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (29.25 per game). In the other 12 games he played in, he had 132.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11.05 per game). He had nine double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games in 2021, but in only two of those games did he fail to score a TD. In contrast, his teammate Keenan Allen was the WR11 and had 15 double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point games and only scored six TDs. For a contract that would make put him in the top 10-12 WRs in annual salary, I need those Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a weekly basis. Williams isn’t a guy who’s going to do that for your Dynasty Owner team.

Allen Robinson is the final WR in this salary range.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR9028$17,880,000$16,376,209 – $1,503,791

Robinson’s market value is projected at 4 years and $65,504,836, or $16,376,209 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to Robinson during his terrible 2021 season (still rostered in 87.0% of Dynasty Owner leagues) will get a salary savings of $1.5 million if they keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

This is my assessment and what I would do if I had Robinson on any of my Dynasty Owner teams. I don’t have him and think that Dynasty Owners who stuck with Robinson throughout the 2021 season as he plummeted down to WR90 from WR9 in 2020 and WR8 in 2019 are more likely to hang on to him. They likely want to see if he turns it around. If the Dynasty Owner in your league drafted Robinson last year, or picked him up in a trade during the season, they might be more willing to part with Robinson than someone who had him in 2020. I’ll assume many Dynasty Owners will hold on to Robinson at this slightly lower salary, so if you want him on your Dynasty Owner team, you will have to pay more than you will now.

This assessment holds pretty much regardless of his landing spot as the Bears no longer have Matt Nagy as coach, but still have a QB of the future in Justin Fields. Robinson was a Top 10 QB in Dynasty Owner with Chase Daniel, Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky at QB. That says he’s not dependent on having a great QB throwing him the ball to provide great production.

WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $10 and $15 Million per Year

The range of $10 million to $15 million is also wide as all three WRs with those market values in that range are really in between $13.2 million and $11.9 million. These three WRs will join two who signed contract extensions with an annual salary in this range during the 2021 season. Robby Anderson is at the high end as he already signed a 2-year, $29.5 million extension ($14.75 million per year) with the Carolina Panthers and Tim Patrick is at the lower end with his 3-year, $34 million extension ($11.33 million per year) with the Denver Broncos. Both of those contracts kick in on March 18th for Dynasty Owners.

Out of the four free agent WRs who have market values in this range, the largest average annual salary amount is projected to be earned by Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ).

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR6029$1,250,000$13,179,995+ $11,929,995

OBJ’s market value is projected at 2 years and $26,359,990, or $13,179,995 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners who held on to him throughout the 2021 season were originally paying him $18 million, then saw his salary drop down to $1.25 million when he was released by Cleveland and picked up by the Rams for an in-season savings of $16.75 million. His salary increase is projected at $11.93 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free

My feelings on OBJ have been the same for a while. He wasn’t worth $18 million, and I suggested using an Amnesty Provision on him way back in March of 2020. He was the first player on my January 2021 list of Players to Avoid Drafting in 2021. Finally, my article titled “How to Rid Your Roster of an Unwanted Player” advocated getting rid of him when he was released by Cleveland before the Rams picked him up for just $1.25 million back in early November

After playing well for the Rams in eight games with 87.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (10.9 per game), he stepped it up in the NFL playoffs and will likely parlay that into a new high-salary contract. His trade value will be higher now than later as the glow of his playoff performance fades during the NFL off-season.

That last paragraph was obviously written before the Super Bowl. The best time to trade OBJ would have been after his first quarter TD as he injured his knee in the second quarter and didn’t return to play. This injury may change his market value, but regardless he is a NFL free agent, one NFL team will sign him, and Dynasty Owners will have to figure out what to do at that point.

Jamison Crowder has the next highest WR market value.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR6828$9,500,000$12,345,747+ $2,845,747

Crowder’s market value is projected at 4 years and $49,382,988, or $12,345,747 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Crowder on their roster currently should expect to have to find $2.846 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

At his current $9.5 million salary, Crowder is only rostered in 32.5% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Adding nearly $3 million on top of that for four years so the contract extends until Crowder will be 33 years of age won’t help that roster percentage or in finding a trade partner. At the height of his career, Crowder was the W27 in 2019 with 197.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (12.35 points per game). His average Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game was higher in 2020 at 15.05 per game, but he only played 12 games and finished as the WR35. Poor QB play hasn’t helped Crowder during his time in New York, but he was the Jets’ top receiver both of those years and that’s certainly not happening anywhere else in the NFL. Shop him around, but trade offers will be minimal or non-existent, so you’ll likely just have to drop him.

The final three WRs have market values of just under $12 million per year. Since all of them are finishing up their rookie contracts, each will be making at least $10 million more next year. Despite playing only four games in 2021, D.J. Chark has the highest market value.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR15025$1,111,807$11,906,373+ $10,794,566

Chark’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,625,492, or $11,906,373 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Chark on their roster only got four games of service from him in 2021 and should expect to have to find nearly $10.8 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team in 2022. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

Chark was a productive WR for the Jaguars in both 2019 and 2020 and started off the 2021 season with two good games before fracturing his ankle in Week 4 and missing the rest of the season. If you drafted Chark, you likely spent a pretty early draft pick to get him (ADP 80.5 in 2021 and 85.8 in 2020), so the talent was supposed to be there at a low salary of $1,111,807. The talent is still there, and he should be in a much better situation than Jacksonville. The main stumbling block is the extra salary. Yes, $11.9 million is a nice salary, but it won’t even put him in the top 25 in WR salary. There are better values out there, but unlike RBs, there’s no reason to automatically trade away a young WR who is getting his second contract. Holding Chark to see how he fares in his first year at his new salary is reasonable. He can always be traded away for something if he doesn’t play well or even dropped with an Amnesty Provision since his contract will have nearly $36 million left on it.

Next on the just under $12 million per year salary list is Christian Kirk.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR2725$1,473,717$11,893,133+ $10,419,416

Kirk’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,572,532, or $11,893,133 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $13,240 less per year than Chark, so don’t be surprised if they sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.42 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep him on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

The same recommendation as Chark, but if you have both of them on your Dynasty Owner team and can only hold on to one of them, I’d choose Kirk. Kirk has performed well every season and averaged over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in all four seasons from 2018 to 2021. In 44 games over the past three seasons, he only scored 14 TDs, but had 26 games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

Kirk was a great value on his rookie contract and can still help your Dynasty Owner team win, it’s just that he’s going to cost more in salary now. Fortunately, the increase in the salary cap gives you the space to keep a couple of players who will earn a salary increase. He’s unlikely to singlehandedly win your team a League Championship, but he can be an important piece in the FLEX position or as a bye week and injury replacement in the Starting lineup, so holding on to him is advised.

Finally, our list of $10 million or more per year free agent WRs ends with Michael Gallup.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
WR8425$880,995$11,870,671+ $10,989,676

Gallup’s market value is projected at 4 years and $47,482,684, or $11,870,671 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. This is only $22,462 less per year than Kirk and $35,702 less per year than Chark. All three of them might sign identical deals. His salary increase is projected at $10.99 million for Dynasty Owners who want to keep Gallup on their team. What should they do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

The same recommendation as Chark and Kirk. Gallup played in only 9 games in 2021 after playing in 46 out of 48 games in his first three seasons. His WR ranking has slipped from WR22 in 2019 to WR38 in 2020 to WR84 in 2021. He dropped from averaging 15.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 to 10.8 per game in 2020 and 10.2 in 2021 due to the presence of CeeDee Lamb in the Cowboys lineup. Being able to average double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points on a team with Lamb, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott along with the emergence of Dalton Schultz is a good sign that Gallup can be productive if he remains in Dallas or moves elsewhere in free agency. Staying in Dallas would reduce his value, but it would make the possibility of him turning into a bust at his new salary a lot less likely. A new home could unlock his full potential and make him a bargain. That alone is a good reason to hold on to Gallup.

Conclusion

We have nine free agent WRs who are expected to sign contracts of more than $10 million per season in free agency. However, the gap in total contract amount is wide as it ranges from as much as $129.34 million (Davante Adams) to as little as $26.36 million (Odell Beckham Jr.). Out of the nine WRs mentioned, eight of them are expected to retain a high roster percentage in Dynasty Owner and have at least some value.

As mentioned at the beginning of this article, there are a total of 19 WRs with Spotrac market values. The final ten will be highlighted next week as they all have market values of less than $10 million per year. The players on the high salary WR list were pretty much as anticipated, while there are some surprising WRs who don’t have a market value as well as vice versa. Read next week’s article to find out who made the list and who didn’t.

The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.

Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday right now as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Free Agent Friday: AFC South

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

The AFC South will be the topic of my conversation with you all today.  The division was won by the Tennessee Titans, and they received the number one seed in the AFC.  That seeding didn’t help them much as they were quickly dispatched by the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round.  Speaking of the Titans, let’s get into one of their free agents and how they will affect some Dynasty Owners.

AFC South

Tennessee Titans

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Anthony Firkser26UFA$3,000,000$4,000,000

The only Titan worth talking about today is Anthony Firkser. Firkser had a lackluster fantasy season. He finished as the TE31, and had only 71.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to show for it. At 3 million dollars, he wasn’t the worst tight end value in football, but he was hardly worth starting either. Consider Firkser a shaky hold at the moment. I estimate his value at $4,000,000.

Indianapolis Colts

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
T.Y. Hilton32UFA$8,000,000$6,000,000
Mo Alie-Cox28UFA$3,384,000$5,000,000
Zach Pascal27UFA$3,384,000$7,000,000
Marlon Mack25UFA$2,000,000$2,000,000

T.Y. Hilton comes in as the first Colts’ free agent we are going to talk about. Hilton was not worth rostering in 2021, and I hesitated if I should even talk about him today. I decided to include him as he is still a big name receiver, and I think he could be fantasy relevant in 2022. I don’t see T.Y. making more than his last contract ($8,000,000). I think it’s likely he will be closer to the $6,000,000 mark (think A.J. Green type contract). I also believe he will move on from Indianapolis and look to continue his career with a team in need of a WR2.

Mo Alie-Cox received a second round tender in 2021. That made his contract $3,384,000 for a single year. Alie-Cox will make more than 3.3 million dollars in 2022, and I think he will return to the Colts. We have yet to see the full offensive potential from the 6’5” tight end, but we did see a flash of it when he had a two touchdown game worth 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 4. I would be holding onto Mo Alie-Cox even for $5,000,000 per year.

Zach Pascal is a wide receiver that is not often talked about and was relatively forgotten about for fantasy last season. He scored less than 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (93.9) and finished as WR80. There’s really not much to talk about with Pascal. He will probably make over $6,000,000 in 2022, and I will not be the Dynasty Owner holding him at that salary.

Marlon Mack was once a very interesting free agent. I am actually still a little interested, but that’s from a football fan standpoint and not an investor. Mack was buried on the depth chart at the end of the 2021 season, and I have to think that there is more for him than this. He is only 25 years old and only two years removed from a 1,000 yard rushing season. My hope is that Mack moves on from Indianapolis and becomes a solid second running back for a team in need of one. Expect Mack to be right at his previous contract of $2,000,000 per year.

Houston Texans

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
Tyrod Taylor32UFA$5,500,000$5,000,000
David Johnson30UFA$5,000,000$2,000,000
Royce Freeman25UFA$985,005$1,500,000
Jordan Akins29UFA$831,271$4,000,000

Tyrod Taylor starts it off for us with Houston. Tyrod is probably looked at as a backup quarterback at this point in his career. I hate to say that because I’ve always liked watching Taylor, but it seems very unlikely he would be given a starting job. The going rate for a backup quarterback like him is around $5,000,000. I, personally, have no interest in holding him for that much money.

David Johnson saw the least amount of carries in his career in 2021 (excluding 2017 when he suffered a season ending injury in Week 1). This is obviously not the direction we would like to see his career go, but it’s also not unexpected from an aging running back. Johnson is now over 30 years old, and his time with Houston has not gone well for anyone involved. I think Johnson finds a new team. He will be looking at the type of contract that an over 30 year old, backup running back usually gets. That would be around $2,000,000 for 1 year.

Royce Freeman had only 34.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021. The only thing that made him rosterable over the past few seasons is the fact that his contract was less than $1,000,000 per year.  His salary should increase slightly as he finds a new team, but I’ve seen enough from him in his career to believe that he will not be taking over as a RB1 anytime soon.

Jacksonville Jaguars

PlayerAgeStatusCurrent SalaryEstimated Value
D.J. Chark25UFA$1,111,807$11,000,000

Just one Jaguar to talk about today. That player is D.J. Chark. Over the past two seasons, Chark was one of the players that I consistently targeted in all my mock and start-up drafts for Dynasty Owner. The reason is that he was still on his rookie contract and seemed to be perennially undervalued. Sadly, I targeted him in 2021 start-up drafts as well. Chark broke his ankle in Week 4 against the Bengals and was placed on season ending Injured Reserve soon after. Obviously an injury like this does not improve his contract potential, but I still think he will get a mid-level contract because of his production in prior years. I expect him to make somewhere between 10 and 12 million dollars per year. What I haven’t decided on is if he will be back in Jacksonville with that contract.

My gut tells me that he will be back. We know that Laviska Shenault Jr. is the up and coming wide receiver with the aging Marvin Jones as the WR2 on the team. I don’t think this alone will be enough offensive power to make many games competitive in 2022. I also think it’s unlikely Jacksonville drafts a wide receiver that can immediately make an impact in the NFL. I have Chark returning to the Jaguars with a contract of $11,000,000 per year.

That wraps up my article for today. If there is any player who you want me to spend more time talking about, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube.  Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk