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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
With the 2021 NFL season in the rearview mirror and the 2022 season coming into view on the horizon, let’s continue to dive into the free agent WRs and their market values. As mentioned in previous articles, the anticipated 2022 Dynasty Owner salary cap is $145.74 million (70% of the expected $208.2 million NFL salary cap), an increase of $17.99 million. The 2022 Dynasty Owner league year starts on March 18th and that’s when signed contracts will take effect. Now is the time to do research by checking if any of your players have already signed contract extensions and look at market values to plan your roster for next year.
Any 2022 signed contracts are either listed under Yearly Salary Breakdown or posted in the Contract section on the player’s profile if it hasn’t taken effect yet. Dynasty Owners can start planning for free agent contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/). This article will review ten WRs who have market values of less than $10 million per season. They aren’t the only free agent WRs who will get salaries in that range, just the only ones with a market value on Spotrac. Before we can get to the players, let’s review how they score Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of February 21st. Spotrac has market values are available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Over $7.5 Million per Year
The first range for the lower salary WRs is between $7.5 million and $10 million per season. None of the WRs who signed contract extensions during the 2021 season signed for this amount. Both T.Y. Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster signed one-year contract extensions for the 2021 season in this range ($8 million each) and Dynasty Owners didn’t get their money’s worth out of either player.
The player with the highest market value in this range is Deonte Harty. He went by Deonte Harris until Christmas Day when he changed his name to honor his stepfather. On Dynasty Owner, he’s listed as Deonte Harty, but other places might still have him listed as Harris.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR57 | 24 | $588,333 | $9,818,663 | + $9,230,330 |
Harty’s market value is projected at 3 years and $29,455,989, or $9,818,663 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Harty on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $9.23 million to keep him on their team, which is over half of the expected Dynasty Owner salary cap increase. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
This market value amount surprised me tremendously. I didn’t see Harty as a nearly $10 million per year player and wonder how many of his Dynasty Owners do. For his entire three-year NFL career, he has averaged just 6.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game with a high of 133.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games played last year (10.25 per game). He does have youth going for him as he only turned 24 in early December and likely some NFL team is giving him a contract of this amount based on his age and potential.
Harty has gained 2,514 return yards and that counts for something in Dynasty Owner that it doesn’t in most other fantasy football leagues. It’s a total of 62.85 Dynasty Owner fantasy points spread over 36 games played for 1.75 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. It makes Harty more valuable in Dynasty Owner than elsewhere, but I still don’t see him as worth nearly $10 million per season. Hopefully another Dynasty Owner does, and you can trade him away for something. If not, then it’s perfectly fine to drop Hardy and find other players to spend that salary on.
The player with the second highest market value in this range is better known by his initials – MVS. It’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR91 | 27 | $669,388 | $8,794,033 | + $8,124,645 |
Valdes-Scantling’s market value is projected at 3 years and $26,382,099, or $8,794,033 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Valdes-Scantling on their roster currently should expect to have to find an extra $8.125 million to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
This market value amount also surprised me as I didn’t see MVS as being worth almost $9 million in salary per year. He has caught only half of his targets in his career (123 receptions from 247 targets) with an average of just 2.1 receptions per game. He does move the chains though with an average of 17.5 yards per catch for his career. However, in terms of Dynasty Owner fantasy points, he only averaged 7.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2021 and 8.5 points per game in 2020.
Those stats, or at least the potential for providing those stats plus more, are apparently worth nearly $8.8 million per year for a NFL franchise. The franchise (as well as a Dynasty Owner) is likely to overpaid for a player who’s going to have a lot of games with 2 receptions for 35 yards with the occasional long reception and a TD. He has 10 games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the past three seasons and scored over 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points six times. He’s a big play, boom or bust WR. Don’t be the Dynasty Owner overpaying for that and move on from MVS, either by getting rid of him in a trade or dropping him for free.
His teammate in Green Bay, Allen Lazard, is the next WR on this list.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR51 | 26 | $675,000 | $7,753,779 | + $7,078,779 |
Lazard’s market value is projected at 3 years and $23,261,337, or $7,753,779 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Lazard on their roster currently should expect to have to find just short of $7.08 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period, but Hold if no deal happens because you can likely trade him later on
Lazard has a very high market value for a restricted free agent (RFA). He played exceptionally well at the end of the 2021 season for Green Bay with an 83.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the final five games (16.6 points per game). He averaged 9.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game for the 2021 season (142.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 15 games played), a slight drop from his 9.8 points per game average in 2020 (97.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 10 games played).
At just $675,000 in salary, Lazard was a tremendous bargain Bench WR. He still has value at the $7.754 million salary if he stays in Green Bay as the WR2 with Rodgers and Davante Adams. Outside of Green Bay, he becomes someone who I’m more likely to want to trade right away than hold.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Between $5 and $7.5 Million per Year
The next lower salary WR range is between $5 million and $7.5 million per season. There are four players who fall into that range with the first one being A.J. Green.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR42 | 33 | $6,000,000 | $7,011,160 | + $1,011,160 |
Green’s market value is projected at 4 years and $28,044,639, or $7,011,160 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Green on their roster currently should expect to have to find only an extra $1.011 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Trade him during the free drop period and if you can’t get a deal, then drop him for free
Another player with a surprisingly large market value. The slight increase in annual salary from $6 million to just over $7 million isn’t the surprising part. It’s the anticipated four year contract that sticks out for me. That seems like too much for a 33-year old WR who hasn’t topped 1,000 yards since 2017. Green did have over 1,000 yards receiving in six out of his first seven seasons with Cincinnati, but only had 523 receiving yards in a full season of games in 2020. He did have a bounce back 2021 season with 848 receiving yards for Arizona, an average of 9.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (156.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played).
The length of the contract and the salary combine to make Green overvalued at his age and likely level of production. I’d try to move him for anything of value before dropping him for free if a trade doesn’t materialize.
The next player in this salary range is Cedrick Wilson.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR49 | 26 | $2,183,000 | $6,464,732 | + $4,281,732 |
Wilson’s market value is projected at 3 years and $19,394,196, or $6,464,732 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. That’s almost $4.3 million more in salary that Dynasty Owners with Wilson on their roster currently should expect to have to pay to keep him. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Keep him. Trade if you get a good offer and have sufficient WR depth
After missing the entire 2018 season with an injury, followed by two largely unproductive seasons, Wilson stepped up for the Cowboys in 2021 with the injury to Michael Gallup and had 146.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played (9.2 points per game). Those stats are pretty good in an offense with Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz and bodes well for Wilson if he stays in Dallas with most of those players returning or move on to another team who might provide him with more opportunities.
He is rostered in just two-thirds (66.9%) of Dynasty Owner leagues, so trade offers after he gets a new contract may not be too plentiful. That’s fine as keeping Wilson with a new contract isn’t a crazy idea, but I’d be fine with trading him if someone offered a good deal as there are players who can produce at the same level for less salary.
Veteran WR T.Y. Hilton is the next player in this salary range.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR106 | 32 | $8,000,000 | $6,290,550 | – $1,709,450 |
Hilton’s market value is projected at 2 years and $12,581,100, or $6,290,550 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Hilton on their roster currently should expect to see their salary cap reduced by $1.71 million when he signs his new contract. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success
This is the same recommendation as in last week’s article for Jamison Crowder, but unlike Crowder, Hilton is expected to have a reduction in salary. Hilton is rostered in 39.6% of Dynasty Owner leagues at his current salary, so that may increase slightly with the lower annual salary. Dynasty Owners may also still think Hilton can regain his former glory from his first seven NFL seasons (2012-2018 when he had five 1,000 receiving yard seasons).
Unfortunately, the player who has missed 14 games over the past three seasons and only scored 74.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2021 is the one who will be getting the new contract. Hilton hasn’t caught more than four passes in a single game or had a 100 yard receiving game since Week 13 of the 2020 season. Shop him around and highlight the salary decrease, but trade offers will likely be minimal or non-existent, so you’ll probably just have to drop him.
The final WR in this range had more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than any other WR on his NFL team in 2021. It’s Braxton Berrios from the New York Jets.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR48 | 26 | $644,602 | $5,922,518 | + $5,277,916 |
Berrios’ market value is projected at 4 years and $23,690,074, or $5,922,518 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Berrios on their roster currently should expect to have to find $5.278 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Hold for now. Value depends upon who signs him
For many Dynasty Owners, the emergence of Berrios was completely unexpected in 2021. However, his 2021 performance actually built upon what he started in 2020 when he had over 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (103.7) and two early-season games with 17.9 and 16.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points respectively. The receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns were slightly higher in 2021, but a large part of Berrios’ increase in Dynasty Owner fantasy points came from the 1,053 return yards and return TD he had in 2021, compared to only 253 return yards in 2020.
Similar to Deonte Hardy, Berrios retains some value as a returner due to the Dynasty Owner scoring system. If he re-signs with the Jets or another team uses him in a similar way as the Jets did last year, he may be worth holding. It’s possible that he’s the next Julian Edelman, or similar to Hunter Renfrow (who also returns kicks and was his team’s top WR in 2021). It’s also possible that he played well given the opportunity that might not be presented by another team. Of course, my opinion might be biased since Berrios went to Miami, and I saw him perform well for several years in college too. Take that into consideration when he signs that new contract.
WRs Who Are Going to Get Less Than $5 Million per Year
There are three WRs in this category and all of them are in roughly the $3 million salary range. Two out of the three have a market value contract for only one year and the third player has a market value for a two-year contract. There will be many more players who sign free agent contracts for under $5 million. It’s just these three players have Spotrac market values to evaluate.
The first WR in this range is Byron Pringle.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR52 | 28 | $2,133,000 | $3,277,579 | + $1,144,579 |
Pringle’s market value is projected at 1 year and $3,277,579 for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Pringle on their roster currently should expect to have to find about $1.145 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Hold if you’re rebuilding. Drop if you’re a contender.
This unique recommendation is based on the fact that he’s not going to hurt a rebuilding team much in 2022. After the season is over, you can drop him if his next contract is too much, or if he has a bad season with no harm done. Of course, he can be traded during the season if another Dynasty Owner wants him.
Contenders don’t need Practice Squad WRs making over $3 million right now and can drop him, but they might during the season. He was WR52 in 2021 and would have been a solid Bench WR. It was his best season by far with 140.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 17 games played (8.3 points per game).
The second WR in this range was also on Kansas City last year – DeMarcus Robinson.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR109 | 27 | $1,127,500 | $2,943,971 | + $1,816,471 |
Robinson’s market value is projected at 2 years and $5,887,942, or $2,943,971 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. If your team is one of the 38.5% of teams in Dynasty Owner leagues with Robinson on your roster, you should expect to have to find close to $1.82 million more to keep him on your team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success
Robinson declined to WR109 with 69.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 17 games played (4.1 points per game) last season after consecutive WR70 finishes in 2020 and 2019. Even those seasons of 105.8 and 100.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points respectively meant that he averaged just 6.6 and 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in those seasons. Practice squad production but at a much higher salary, so dropping is advised, especially with the extra year on that contract. There will be plenty of Practice Squad WRs on one-year contracts of just over $1 million to replace him. His roster percentage means he’s not likely to draw much trade attention on his own, but can be added as a throw-in or to make salaries match up.
The final WR in this range is Kalif Raymond.
| Position Rank | Age | 2021 Salary | Market Value | Salary Change |
| WR54 | 27 | $1,127,500 | $2,940,024 | + $1,812,524 |
Raymond’s market value is projected at 1 year and $2,940,024 for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Raymond on their roster currently should expect to have to find about $1.81 million more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?
Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success
Raymond had his best season in 2021 as part of an underwhelming Detroit receiving corps with 138.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played for an average of 8.65 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He had bounced around on several NFL practice squads for a few years before landing with the Lions. It is unlikely that he will replicate his success this past season in the future. As with Demarcus Robinson, practice squad production but at a much higher salary, so dropping is advised with plenty of Practice Squad WRs on one-year contracts of just over $1 million available to replace him.
Conclusion
That concludes the WRs with market values. There were 19 of them to go along with the one QB discussed who didn’t have a market value (Jameis Winston) and a baker’s dozen of RBs. For the lower salary WRs, it was a mixed bag of players and recommendations. Not surprising with the quantity of WRs available at plenty of salary figures. In contrast, RBs are more scarce and valuable, while there are always plenty of decent WRs available in the Free Agent Auction at one time.
We have two articles left as there are ten TEs with a market value, so I’ll split them up into two articles. No kicker article because there are no kicker market values. After the second TE article is published, it’ll be less than two weeks until NFL free agency and the start date of the 2022 Dynasty Owner season.
The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is back at its regular day and time – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to the livestream afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.
Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I’ll write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday as Matt Morrison – The Jerk breaks down the free agents on every NFL team by division.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner