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Free Agent Market Values: Lower Salary TEs

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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

It’s the final article in this series about free agent market values, which can mean only one thing. The start of NFL free agent contract signings is coming very soon!

Teams have until tomorrow (Tuesday, March 8th) to place the franchise or transition tag label on their own players. The Kansas City Chiefs did it already with offensive tackle Orlando Brown (1 year, $16.5 million), but other teams may do it soon as well. After that, it’s a couple of days off but starting next Monday (March 14th), player agents can begin negotiations with teams regarding their free agent clients and the signings will begin at 4 PM on Wednesday, March 16th. This is conveniently timed with the Wednesday Dynasty Owner Livestream so clear your calendar for that time.

The 2022 Dynasty Owner season doesn’t start until Friday, March 18th giving Dynasty Owners a day and a half to process free agent moves before those contracts take effect on the Dynasty Owner platform. And with the recent decision to allow more time for Dynasty Owners to decide what to do with free agents who get new contracts, it’ll still be a frenzy of trades, free drops and Free Agent Auction bids, but stretched out over a longer period of time.

As for this article, the title is somewhat misleading. It says “lower”, not “low” on purpose. The five TEs listed all have market values of less than $8 million per season. However, four out of the five TEs have market values that aren’t much lower than the fifth guy in the high salary TE range (C.J. Uzomah at $8.23 million). With 10 TEs with market values, the difference between the fifth TE and the sixth TE was only around $620,000, less than it was for RBs (about $1.48 million) and WRs (about $2.05 million).

Interesting, three of these players were first round draft picks back in 2017 who had their fifth year option picked up for the 2021 season. They are now hitting the open market for the first time in their careers. All three had identical $6.013 million salaries in 2021, but their salaries could be much different in 2022. Two are expected to get small salary increases, but one could have the franchise or transition tag placed and receive a pretty hefty increase, although only for one season. The third TE is expected to have his annual salary trimmed by nearly $3.8 million.

Any 2022 signed contracts mentioned are either listed under Yearly Salary Breakdown or posted in the Contract section on the player’s profile if it hasn’t taken effect yet. Dynasty Owners can start planning for all free agent contracts using the anticipated free agent market values from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/). However, before we can get to reviewing the market values for these five TEs, let’s review how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of March 7th. Spotrac has market values available for select players at https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/.

TEs Who Are Going to Get Paid Between $6 and $8 Million Per Year

There were quite a few TEs in the $6 million to $8 million salary range on Dynasty Owner in 2021. They ranged from a pair of Top 20 TEs near the high end of the range (Darren Waller and Tyler Higbee) to a TE rostered in zero Dynasty Owner leagues who is mostly known as a blocker and only scored 1.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in five games played (Nick Boyle). In between, there are a couple of TEs who ranked just outside of the Top 20 and a couple more high-priced veterans. It’s quite the hodgepodge of players.   

The player with the highest market value in this group is actually someone who’s salary is projected to drop for 2022. It’s Zach Ertz.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE531$8,500,000$7,612,050– $887,950

Ertz’s market value is projected at 2 years and $15,224,100, or $7,612,050 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Ertz on their roster currently should expect to receive a savings of just under $900,000 in salary if they keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Hold if you plan on being a contender. Trade if you’re rebuilding.

Originally, I was going to suggest trading Ertz, but the more I think about it and look at his numbers, the more I move towards holding him. Unless you’re in a rebuild as your team needs younger talent and he’s 31 years old.

Consistency is the name of the game for Ertz. For his career, he’s averaged 4.7 receptions per game for 51 receiving yards. That’s 9.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, which puts him as a low-end TE1 for your team. In 11 games in Arizona in 2021, he had 56 receptions for 574 yards (5.1 receptions for 52.2 yards per game). In eight games with Kyler Murray at QB for Arizona, Ertz had 41 receptions (5.1 per game), 413 receiving yards (51.6 per game) and 1 TD. Overall, he had 88.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, or 11.1 points per game with only one TD. Take out the TD and his per game average is 10.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game, which is pretty much his career average.

As I’ve stated before, if I’m paying top dollar for a TE, then I want him in my lineup every week. Ertz is that type of TE and at around $7.6 million per season for only two seasons, he’d be at the low end of the Top 12 TEs in average annual salary. It’s a reasonable amount to pay for him at his age and for the consistent production he can bring to your Dynasty Owner team.

Next on the list is Maxx Williams, the TE who Ertz replaced in Arizona.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE5627$3,500,000$6,689,191+ $3,189,191

Williams’ market value is projected at 3 years and $20,067,573, or $6,689,191 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Williams on their roster currently should expect to have to find $3.19 million more in salary cap to keep him on their team.  What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Drop him for free after trying to trade him, but not having any success

At his current $3.5 million salary, Williams is only rostered in 16.35% of Dynasty Owner leagues. The season-ending knee injury he suffered in the fifth game of the 2021 season curtailed a fine year with 16 receptions for 193 receiving yards and a touchdown (41.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). He had two games with double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points, one more than he had in his first two seasons in Arizona (25 games). Similar to C.J. Uzomah, did Williams finally find his groove and can be expected to perform like this in the future?

The short answer is No. The long answer is also No and good luck if you believe that or want to find another Dynasty Owner who does. While he earned his Dynasty Owner salary in those two double-digit point games early in 2021, he wasn’t worth having on your roster at $3.5 million and definitely isn’t at more.

Evan Engram is the third TE in this salary range, but in reality, he’s tied with David Njoku who’s ranked fourth. Unless Njoku get the franchise tag from the Browns, don’t be surprised if both of them sign identical contract after playing on their $6.013 million fifth year options in 2021. We’ll tackle Engram first as he has the slightly higher market value.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE2327$6,013,000$6,753,911+ $740,911

Engram’s market value is projected at 4 years and $27,015,644, or $6,753,911 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Those figures are flat out stunning to me. Dynasty Owners with Engram on their roster currently should expect to have to find only $740,911 more to keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Trade him

Engram hasn’t panned out for the Giants after being a first round draft pick (#23) in the 2017 NFL Draft. The Giants exercised their fifth year option for $6.013 million on Engram for 2021 and he rewarded them arguably his worst season statistically. He averaged a career-worst 8.9 yards per reception, a career-low 408 receiving yards and only 46 receptions, third worst after the 2019 and 2018 seasons in which he had 44 receptions in 8 games (2019) and 45 receptions in 11 games (2018). In contrast, he played in 15 games in 2021 when he scored 101.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (6.8 points per game) with only five games of more than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

It’s amazing that he could have his worst year and likely get a larger contract in free agency. Can Engram salvage his first round potential in New York under new coach Brian Daboll, or with another team? It’s possible, but if I was one of the Dynasty Owners with Engram on my roster (he is currently on a roster in 84.28% of Dynasty Owner leagues), I’d be happy to get rid of him in any manner that I could (free drop or trade). With that high of a roster percentage, it’s logical to assume that Engram can be traded, and his Dynasty Owners won’t need to utilize the free drop from the contract change.

If you look quickly, you might think that I copied the same data in the chart below for David Njoku as for Evan Engram. They are that close in almost every measure.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE2225$6,013,000$6,733,392+ $720,392

Njoku’s market value is projected at 4 years and $26,933,568, or $6,733,392 per year for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Njoku on their roster currently should expect to have to find only $720,392 more to keep him on their team.  What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him and see what his contract ends up being, especially if he gets the franchise or transition tag

Same as Engram, Njoku hasn’t panned out for the Browns after being a first round draft pick (#29) in the 2017 NFL Draft. However, he is in a much more interesting contract position as there are reports that the Browns may use their franchise or transition tag on Njoku. The franchise tag would give Njoku a contract of likely $10.93 million, while the transition tag would yield a $9.33 million salary. Both are much higher than his projected market value.

Njoku’s stats are nothing to get excited about over his career, but they do show improvement over the past three years from an average of 3.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 to 4.0 points per game in 2020 to 6.7 points per game in 2021 with a TE22 finish. He will obviously have to improve to be worth any projected new contract.

Truthfully, I like Njoku more than Engram. Part of it is my Miami Hurricanes’ bias, part is that he is nearly full two years younger than Engram and the rest is that he has been improving whereas Engram has not. A one-year franchise or transition deal with Cleveland would have me lean towards keeping Njoku and seeing what happens. A longer deal with Cleveland or elsewhere also leaves me leaning towards keeping him, but not rejecting a good trade offer.

Our Final TE Who Is Expected to Get Just Over $2 Million per Year

The jump from $6 to $8 million contracts to just over $2 million is pretty abrupt, but that’s all we have to discuss. There are no TEs with a market value between $3 million and $6 million and only one in this over $2 million salary range. There will likely be a few veteran TEs who join the $3 million to $6 million range with newly extended Ian Thomas ($5.5 million per year), T.J. Hockenson ($4,955,306 per year) and Noah Fant ($3,147,680) among others. However, no TE has a Spotrac market value projected in that range.

Instead, we have one final TE with a market value just north of $2 million per year. It’s O.J. Howard, the third first round draft pick from the 2017 NFL Draft who made $6.013 million in 2021.

Position RankAge2021 SalaryMarket ValueSalary Change
TE6627$6,013,000$2,215,824– $3,797,176

Howard’s market value is projected at 1 year and $2,215,824 for Dynasty Owner salary purposes. Dynasty Owners with Howard on their roster currently should expect to receive a savings of almost $3.8 million in salary if they keep him on their team. What should his Dynasty Owners do?

Current Recommendation: Hold him

Howard was the first TE selected in that 2017 NFL draft as he was the #19 pick. He has been the least productive of the three TEs and was only the third best TE in Tampa Bay in 2021. He played in all 17 games in 2021, but only managed to score 33.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (14 receptions, 135 receiving yards, 1 receiving TD). That’s less than 2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. After Tampa Bay’s Week 9 bye, he had two targets and one reception for 10 yards (2.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). He hasn’t done much for his Dynasty Owners in prior seasons either with a TE31 finish when he averaged 5.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2019 being his best season.

Why the hold then? It’s not outrageous to think that he could put together a decent season and just over $2.2 million isn’t a lot to pay for a 27-year old TE. If you’re contending, this is the type of move that helps your team get better if he plays well. If he doesn’t, trade him to someone who’s rebuilding for a high-salary player who might help you win. If you’re rebuilding and he plays well, you can move him for a draft pick. If he doesn’t play well, then he helps your team by not scoring points and maybe you get a better 2023 draft position. Then you drop him next off-season. Either way, he’s worth a roster spot at $2.2 million, while he wasn’t worth one at his level of production for $6.013 million.

Conclusion

As previewed at the beginning of this article, the lower salary TEs title was a little misleading as four out of the five TEs listed are expected to sign contracts worth over $15 million in total and over $6.7 million per year. That’s considerably higher than the low salary RBs and even higher than all but one of the high salary RBs. The TE market values are similar to a few of the lower salary WRs, such as A.J. Green, Cedrick Wilson, T.Y. Hilton and Braxton Berrios. However, they are a step below the market values for the five high salary free agent TEs.

The recommendations were also more varied here than in other articles. Only one is someone who Dynasty Owners will likely be dropping in droves during the Dynasty Owner off-season, while the rest have value. Whether that value is to their current Dynasty Owner, or to another team is something that we’ll find out soon.

Speaking of soon, the weekly Dynasty Owner livestream with myself and Tim Peffer is coming up soon – Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.

Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday with articles from Matt Morrison – The Jerk.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

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