This content has been archived. It may no longer be relevant
Winners, Losers, and Who’s Left
By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
NFL free agency continues to chug along, but after quite a few big moves in the middle of last week, things have started to cool down. Fewer players are signing free agent contracts and it seems that the trade market has largely shut down. It’s been several days since the Tyreek Hill trade to Miami. The focus of NFL front offices is turning to the NFL draft which begins in a month (April 28 – 30).
Once Dynasty Owners get their salaries under the $145.74 million salary cap, they will also be able to focus more on the NFL draft and Dynasty Owner rookie drafts, which are scheduled to start on May 27th. Because of the unique nature of Dynasty Owner using real NFL contracts and salaries, rookie draft discussions are more speculative at this point than in other dynasty leagues.
First round draft position is not very important in a regular dynasty league, while for Dynasty Owners, the later a player goes in the first round, the better because his salary will be less. The difference between being drafted at the end of the first round versus the beginning of the second round doesn’t matter much in a regular dynasty league either.
The differences are more meaningful in Dynasty Owner as salaries go down as the first-round proceeds. Even the difference in salary between the final pick of Day 1 (pick #32) and the first pick of Day 2 (pick #33) is approximately $600,000 in salary.
Because of that, we have more time to review the end of possibly the most hectic and wildest NFL free agency in history. The contracts are bigger than ever with more guaranteed money, the trades are bigger, and the players being traded are more prominent.
As with most things in life, the tendency is to do an immediate reaction and declare Player X or Team Y as the “winner” of the off-season, while Player A or Team B is the “loser” is strong. We can do that here in Dynasty Owner as well but, will have to focus our attention on the contracts and salaries as just as much as the fit of the player’s new team or the value of draft picks that a team has given up obtaining someone via a trade.
Let’s start doing that, but before we can announce some winners and losers, we first need to review how players score Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving, or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3-point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics, roster percentages and 2021 position ranks were current as of the morning of March 28th. All 2022 contract information is currently listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries) and has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).
Off-Season Winners and Losers
In every NFL game, there is a winner and a loser. Occasionally, there’s a tie but those are rare (there was only one tie in each of the past three seasons). They are so rare in fact that some NFL players and even one coach didn’t realize that NFL regular season games can end in a tie – https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/steelers-lions-tie-najee-harris-history-mcnabb.
With that in mind, here’s a few sets of winners and losers from the NFL off-season so far. No ties. Yet.
Winner – Deshaun Watson
The trade of Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans to the Cleveland Browns was one of the biggest of the off-season so far. In almost every other NFL off-season, it would have been the biggest trade by far. However, with the Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill trades, it still ranks as one of the biggest and maybe the biggest depending on your vantage point.
In the end, the big winner in this off-season move has to be Deshaun Watson. He went from not playing at all during the 2021 season, to not being criminally charged in the 22 sexual harassment and assault allegations brought against him, to forcing a trade to the team he wanted and being rewarded with a new, completely guaranteed 5-year, $230 million contract by that team. It’s a raise of $7 million per season for Watson after not playing a single down in 2021 and he got the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history. It’s the largest by around $80 million in a massive commitment to Watson by the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will join Watson as a winner if he leads them to a Super Bowl victory in the next five years, but for now, the big winner is Watson himself.
Loser – Dynasty Owners who kept Deshaun Watson on their roster for the entire 2021 season
If you were like me and one of the 20% of so of Dynasty Owners who held on to Watson for the entire 2021 Dynasty Owner season, this off-season has been a mixed bag. Speaking for all of those Dynasty Owners, my rationale for keeping Watson was that I thought he would continue playing in the NFL at some point. Because of that, it initially seemed like holding Watson was a good move.
First, he was not indicted by a grand jury, so teams were more willing to trade with the Texans for him. The next step was getting traded and that happened, but the landing spot was a surprise.
However, the biggest surprise and something that I did not anticipate was the new 5-year, $230 million contract ($46 million per year for Dynasty Owner) overtaking the old 4-year, $156 million contract ($39 million per year for Dynasty Owner). That’s an extra $7 million for a 26-year-old QB who sat out an entire year and is still likely to be suspended by the NFL for some portion of the 2022 season.
If you don’t believe me on that, then why is his 2021 base salary only $1.035 million. The base salary for the remaining years of his new contract is $46 million per season. That’s because any loss of game checks will come out of his 2021 base salary, so the lower 2021 base salary limits his financial losses from any NFL suspension.
At this point, his Dynasty Owners who kept him for all of the 2021 season were faced with paying him $7 million more, occupying nearly one-third of their 2022 salary cap ($46 million out of $145.74 million is 31.6%) and missing his services for another four or more games in 2022. For me, those were the straws that broke the camel’s back and with the ability to drop Watson for free in Dynasty Owner because of the contract change, I made the move and dropped him. I wasted a roster spot and over 30% of my 2021 salary cap on Watson and got nothing for it. That makes me (and every other Dynasty Owner who held him for the 2021 season) an off-season loser.
Winners – Dynasty Owners with JuJu Smith-Schuster
After the trade of Tyreek Hill to Miami, JuJu Smith-Schuster becomes the de facto WR1 for the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs had the second most receptions in the NFL in 2021, the fourth most receiving yards and the sixth most receiving TDs. Sure, he’s not the #1 receiver, that’s Travis Kelce, but there are a lot of targets, receptions, and yards out there in the Chiefs’ offense for Smith-Schuster.
On top of moving from Pittsburgh to Kansas City and upgrading his QB from Ben Roethlisberger to Patrick Mahomes, Dynasty Owners with Smith-Schuster saw his salary drop from $8 million in 2021 to only $3.25 million in 2022. Effectively, they are getting a player moving to a better passing offense, with a better QB and paying $4.75 million less in salary. Admittedly, Smith-Schuster can earn up to $10.75 million with incentives, but while the Chiefs will pay those incentives, his Dynasty Owners won’t.
Losers – Dynasty Owners with Christian Kirk
Dynasty Owners with Christian Kirk are the 2022 version of Dynasty Owners with Kenny Golladay in 2021. Both WRs signed identical 4-year, $72 million contracts and will cost their Dynasty Owners $18 million per season. Both contracts were easily the highest for free agent WRs and one more year than any other free agent WR received. Both were paid far more than anticipated by several million dollars per season.
In terms of market value, Kirk, Michael Gallup and D.J. Chark were all in the same ballpark with values in the 4-year, $48 million range ($12 million per season). Gallup got pretty much his market value by signing a 5-year, $57.5 million extension with Dallas and Chark only got a one-year, $10 million deal from Detroit. Jacksonville’s contract for Kirk blew both of them out of the water as the Jaguars will pay Kirk $6.5 million more a year than the Cowboys will pay Gallup and $8 million more than the Lions will pay Chark. It’s crazy money that Dynasty Owners with Kirk likely never saw coming and now they are trying to figure out whether or not to keep him at that contract amount or drop him for free.
Winners – Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers – The top salaries are going to the QBs and WRs. All of the players with annual salaries of over $30 million per season play one of those two positions. The top non-QB/WR is Pittsburgh linebacker T.J. Watt who has an average annual salary of $28,002,750. Watt is just barely ahead of another WR (Davante Adams at $28 million), a QB (Jimmy Garoppolo at $27.5 million) and another WR (DeAndre Hopkins at $27.25 million).
It’s been this way for QBs for a while as the highest paid position, but the WRs have been steadily moving up the ranks. Five years ago, Antonio Brown was the top WR in average annual salary at $17 million to rank in a tie for 22nd place in salary. By 2020, DeAndre Hopkins was making $27.25 million and was the top WR in 13th place. Right now, Tyreek Hill has an average annual salary of $30 million and in a tie for 11th place.
Losers – Running Backs – So far this off-season, no RB has signed a contract for more than $7 million per year and none have gotten a contract for over three years. Both James Conner and Leonard Fournette received 3-year, $21 million contracts to stay in Arizona and Tampa Bay. The highest paid RB on an average annual salary basis is Christian McCaffrey at $16,015,875 per season. That currently ranks him as the 81st highest paid NFL player.
The last RB to get a contract with an average salary of over $10 million was Nick Chubb who signed a 3-year, $36.6 million contract extension with Cleveland back at the end of July last year. There are eight RBs with contracts of $12 million or more per year (McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, Chubb, Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones). Five of those contract extensions were signed in 2020, Elliott signed his back in 2019 and Jones and Chubb got theirs in 2021. Who’s going to be the next RB to get a contract of over $10 million per year and more than three years?
My bet would be on Jonathan Taylor, but he’s not a free agent until after the 2023 season, so we could go another year to year and a half without a contract of that size for a RB. Bottom line on all of this is that if your child grows up wanting to be a NFL player, steer them towards playing QB or WR. They get hit less, have longer careers on average and are paid more than RBs.
Winners – Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, and Mitch Trubisky: The QB game of musical chairs has all of them sitting in new places as likely 2022 starting QBs. Wentz was traded from Indianapolis to Washington, Trubisky signed with Pittsburgh to replace Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan was traded to Indianapolis to replace Wentz and Mariota signed with Atlanta to replace Ryan. Trubisky and Mariota move up from being backups in 2021 to likely starters in 2022. They may only be caretakers for their teams if those teams draft a rookie QB, but they are still expected to be starting NFL QBs in 2022 so they are having a good off-season.
Loser – Baker Mayfield (and maybe Sam Darnold): When you play musical chairs, there’s always someone who ends up without a seat. That’s how the game is played. In the NFL, there are only 32 starting QB positions and as Wentz, Mariota, Ryan, and Trubisky started to fill the empty chairs, Baker Mayfield ended up without one. He might take Sam Darnold’s seat in Carolina and if he does then that will put Darnold here.
For now, Darnold is still the starter in Carolina and Mayfield is asking for a trade from Cleveland, but he has very few options left. He could possibly go to Seattle as a starter, but not anywhere else without an injury. No long-term extension and no starting QB job right now for Baker (or potentially Sam in the future). Not a happy off-season so far.
Who’s Left in Free Agency?
While it may seem like every NFL free agent has already signed a new contract, that’s not true. There are plenty of players who haven’t signed yet and are still out there left waiting for a new team. Most of the most recent players to sign have been either offensive linemen or defensive players.
The Chiefs signing of Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a 3-year, $30 million contract on Thursday was the last big money deal for a player in the Dynasty Owner database. Ronald Jones was going to be on this list until he signed with Kansas City on Saturday, but we still have ten players remaining from the lists that I had put together in earlier articles this off-season.
Here are the most prominent remaining free agent players still left out there:
| Player | 2021 Rank | 2021 Team | Age | Roster Percentage | 2021 Salary |
| Melvin Gordon | RB19 | DEN | 28 | 98.1% | $8,000,000 |
| Darrel Williams | RB21 | KC | 26 | 94.9% | $1,600,000 |
| Sony Michel | RB31 | LAR | 27 | 94.9% | $2,406,674 |
| David Johnson | RB62 | HOU | 30 | 32.3% | $5,000,000 |
| Alex Collins | RB68 | SEA | 27 | 36.1% | $990,000 |
| Marlon Mack | RB125 | IND | 26 | 86.1% | $2,000,000 |
| A.J. Green | WR42 | ARI | 33 | 33.5% | $6,000,000 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | WR60 | LAR | 29 | 96.8% | $1,250,000 |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR106 | IND | 32 | 18.35% | $8,000,000 |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE7 | TB | 32 | 93.7% | $8,000,000 |
Five of these players are still on a roster in more than 90% of Dynasty Owner leagues and Marlon Mack is rostered in just over 85%. Melvin Gordon and Rob Gronkowski are the biggest name players, and those two are easily the most likely to be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup come Week 1 of the 2022 season. While Gronk is listed as a free agent, it’s just a matter of time before he re-signs with Tampa Bay. We just don’t know the contract details yet.
There have also been a few prominent players released this off-season who are still currently free agents.
| Player | 2021 Rank | 2021 Team | Age | Roster Percentage | 2021 Salary |
| Devontae Booker | RB34 | NYG | 29 | 58.2% | $2,750,000 |
| Carlos Hyde | RB86 | JAC | 31 | 24.05% | $2,250,000 |
| Cole Beasley | WR41 | BUF | 32 | 32.9% | $7,250,000 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR59 | CLE | 29 | 43.7% | $15,100,000 |
| Julio Jones | WR101 | TEN | 33 | 33.5% | $22,000,000 |
| Kyle Rudolph | TE43 | NYG | 32 | 0.6% | $6,000,000 |
| Blake Jarwin | TE67 | DAL | 27 | 17.1% | $5,500,000 |
Out of those seven players, Beasley had the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 158.3 for an average of 9.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Booker was a close second with 144.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 16 games played for an average of 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. Julio Jones hasn’t been officially released yet, but the Titans have indicated that they will do so on June 1st. That’s good news for his Dynasty Owners as they will be off the hook for his $22 million annual salary. However, this list is not brimming with players who Dynasty Owners should be rushing to pick up off the Free Agent Auction or be crafting trade offers to acquire.
Finally, these are not even all of the available free agents who will eventually sign with a NFL team, participate in training camp and pre-season games, and likely contribute at some point during the 2022 NFL season. They are also not the only players who will be added to at least some Dynasty Owner rosters over the course of the next few months. However, none are likely to be starters or worth holding on to right now as anything more than a handcuff for a top player, or as a speculative add or hold.
Conclusion
The first phase of the NFL and Dynasty Owner off-season focused on free agency and in recent years, the trading of high-profile players, is winding down with another phase focused on rookies and the NFL draft starting soon. This is likely to be my last article on free agency, off-season player movement and the new contracts associated with both. There’s still plenty more to analyze and Matt is going to continue to dive into that on Fridays.
For me, it’s time to start to look forward to the 2022 Dynasty Owner season by taking a look back at what happened in the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. I’ll dig into some draft and salary cap usage data to examine trends and find patterns with all of the teams who won their League Championship and those that finished in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring. It will be interesting to see if the findings from 2020 continued into 2021 or if things changed slightly, or maybe even dramatically. With two years of Dynasty Owner in the books, I can also look into how Dynasty Owners did between the two seasons. After all, it’s a dynasty league and everyone should be building their dynasty, not changing the whole roster from one season to the next.
All of these topics could be part of the discussion between myself and Tim Peffer during the weekly Dynasty Owner livestream on Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). That’s right, we’re back to the usual time. Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it afterwards wherever you get your podcasts.
Please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team as well. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries, and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster and his articles appear on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and will do prospect previews every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday with articles from Matt Morrison – The Jerk.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner