New Contract Spotlight 

Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon 

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk

I bring an article to you today with somewhat odd timing. The timing is strange because the 2022 NFL Draft has started, but I wrote this article on Thursday afternoon. This means that by the time you read this, you will know the outcome of the 1st Round while I (currently typing this) don’t. For that reason, I am going to keep chugging along with my New Contract Spotlight. 

But…maybe, just maybe I will include a mini Spotlight on one of the rookies who got drafted on Thursday night. Stick around until the end of this article, and you might find some bonus content. As for now, let’s talk about some fresh free agent news and Melvin Gordon. 

The News & New Contract Spotlight 

There is a single person to talk about today in the news, and it happens to be the player who I am spotlighting today. That player is Melvin Gordon. To be honest, this will be a two player breakdown. I cannot talk about Gordon without also mentioning his teammate Javonte Williams. Let’s talk about Melvin first. 

Melvin Gordon 

Gordon was re-signed by the Denver Broncos on April 27th. I actually received this news while I was traveling and about to board a flight home. I couldn’t write a full breakdown at that time, but here are some words that I wrote in my “Notes” app to capture my initial thoughts. 

Split Backfield Again? 

Confusion 

Who Scores More? 

Upsetting 

Both Top 20 RBs Again In 2022? 

Now, I don’t mean to be fully negative here, but there is no way that this move doesn’t hurt one of these player’s fantasy outlook at least for the next season. I was greatly looking forward to seeing Williams become the bell cow back for a super talented offensive team. That clearly won’t happen, but I also can’t blame Denver for this move, and here is why… 

They signed Melvin Gordon as an absolute steal. The deal is 1 year – $2,500,000. This is an insane value for a running back who just put up over 1,000 total yards in back to back seasons.  It’s also an insane value when you consider that Gordon was playing on an $8,000,000 contract last year. And then the realization hit me… 

I’m not disappointed in this news at all (at least from Melvin’s side). Dynasty Owners are getting a Top 20 running back on a team that is better than last year (Russell Wilson trade), and his contract is less than a third of what it was in the previous two seasons. What more could we ask for? Yes, I would have preferred if Gordon went to a new team and became their three down back, but that was likely always just a pipe dream. The odds that a team, other than the Texans, would make a newly signed, 29-year old running back their workhorse back is unlikely at best. This really is fantastic news for everyone who continued to hold Gordon throughout free agency. 

Javonte Williams 

On the other hand, though…we have Javonte Williams. I have yet to hear a reason why this should be considered as a positive move for Williams’ fantasy value in the short term. That is likely because there isn’t a good reason. Yes, Gordon taking some wear and tear off of Javonte will likely extend his career and help his efficiency. However, as we know at Dynasty Owner, efficiency only helps a player so much.  We also need that sweet spot of efficiency and volume. 

Williams may get both efficiency and volume this year.  Hell, he may get more of both when you compare it to last year. What I’m positive about though is that he will not get as much volume compared to if Gordon had not re-signed. Expect Williams and Gordon to both be in the RB20 – RB25 range at the end of the season. Also, it’s worth mentioning the injury possibility. We never project or hope for injuries at Dynasty Owner, but they are an unfortunate reality of this game. If one of these two running backs goes down for any length of time, the other would immediately have league winning value. 

I think that last sentence is kind of my point with Williams now. 

Without Gordon, he would have been a potential league winner. With him, I see his ceiling as RB15. It’s disappointing, but the Broncos are a better team because of it. 

Comparisons 

Player Signing Age Status Team Salary per Year Season Finish 
Melvin Gordon 29 Signed Denver $2,500,000 TBD 
Mike Davis 27 Signed Carolina* $3,000,000 RB15 (2020) 
J.D. McKissic 26 Signed Washington $1,635,000 RB18 (2020) 

* Mike Davis signed a two-year, $6 million contract with Chicago in March 2019, but waived in November and Carolina picked up him and his contract. 

There weren’t many great comps for Melvin at this price, and that is the main point I want to sum up with this section. Yes, Mike Davis and J.D. McKissic finished their 2020 seasons close to the type of value that I expect Gordon to have this year.  What is different is the way that they did it. Davis had a superb season for Carolina solely due to the loss of Christian McCaffrey for the majority of the season. J.D. McKissic wasn’t the number one running back on the 2020 team, yet he led the NFL in running back targets. All of this is to say that I project Gordon to be in a better spot than both of these compared running backs. While I don’t necessarily predict that he will finish higher than RB15 (or even RB18 this season), I do think he will be a less fluky player, and he will have a consistent workload throughout the season. 

Conclusion 

Melvin Gordon will be a very efficient and valuable running back this season. You can see by my lack of comps that it is rare for an aging running back to get a sub $3,000,000 contract despite having over 1,000 yards in each of the previous two seasons. I would send out offers to the Gordon owner in your league, and see if you can snag him for cheap. 

Bonus Spotlight 

Because I love the NFL so much, I’m going to put in a small bonus spotlight on Jameson Williams. As we now know, he was drafted by the Detroit Lions as the 12th overall pick. He will take some extra time to get ready for this NFL season, but I truly believe that he will be the best wide receiver from this 2022 class. Here are the best comps I have for Williams… 

Player College Team Height Weight Draft Spot Salary Fantasy Finish 
Jameson Williams Alabama DET 73.5″ 179 12th $4,365,447 TBD 
DeVonta Smith Alabama PHI 73″ 170 10th $5,035,348 31 (2021) 
CeeDee Lamb Oklahoma DAL 74″ 191 17th $3,502,503 21 (2020) 
Marquise Brown Oklahoma BAL 69″ 166 25th $2,946,835 48 (2019) 

Based on this chart, it would be hard to expect Williams to exceed a WR21 ranking for the 2022 season. Compound this with the idea that he will likely miss training camps and pre-season games (at a minimum). At the worst, he will miss three to six weeks of the season with his ACL injury. Drafting Williams in your Dynasty Owner rookie draft would be a wise decision, but you have to realize that he will likely not make a big impact until next year. 

These comps make sense based on the draft position, salary, and size as you can see from the chart. I’m not going to break down each player now, but suffice it to say that, in my opinion, Williams is in good company at least for the next five years. It’s worth mentioning that I had included Marquise Brown in this comparison prior to his trade to the Arizona Cardinals which still blows my mind. 

Thank you for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. I’ll see you next week for a new Contract Spotlight article. Take care everyone and be safe. 

TheJerk 

Prospect Preview

Jalen Tolbert

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

Position: WR

College: South Alabama

Height: 6’ 1”

Weight: 194 lbs.

Age: 23

247 Rating: 0.7731 (2 Stars)

The Rundown:

The 415th ranked wide receiver in his recruiting class, Tolbert has defied the odds and is now waiting to hear his name announced this weekend at the NFL Draft. Playing for his hometown team, he has used the last five years to hone his craft and become a truly well-rounded wideout. He checks a lot of boxes on film. However, because he played in the Sun Belt, is he truly ready for the NFL?

College Production:

Tolbert’s true freshmen year was cut short by a preseason injury, but by the end of his redshirt sophomore year, he was leading the Jaguars offense with nearly 20 yards per reception and 6 touchdowns. Tolbert helped the Jaguars find some offensive explosiveness in his third year as he would show out as one of the best receivers in the conference with a 64/1,085/8 stat line and earned First-Team All-Sun Belt. He stayed for one more season in 2021 to play with South Carolina quarterback transfer Jake Bentley and put together 82 receptions for 1,474 yards and 8 touchdowns, winning the 2021 Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year award. Now as he goes to the NFL, he finishes as one of the best receivers ever to play at South Alabama.

Strengths:

  • Solid Route RunnerFor a Group of Five receiver, Tolbert runs some nice routes. He is able to stop on a dime while also deceive corners with head movements and stutters. He also has no problem getting off the line. He showed up big against Tennessee, an SEC defense, and made it look like he belonged on the field with the 3 and 4-star recruits across from him.
  • 50/50 WinnerEven though South Alabama’s quarterback play improved in 2021, a wide open Tolbert still had to wait on the ball and win contested catch situations when he should have not had to do so. Tolbert shows a great ability to track and attack the ball in the right moment to win over his defenders. Good concentration in the air and strong hands helped him show that he can win in contested catch situations.
  • ProductiveIt may have been the Sun Belt, but Tolbert had seven games over 100 yards in 2021 and finished strong with 24 catches for 442 yards and two touchdowns in his final three games (including 7/143/1 against Tennessee). While many “small school” prospects take time to transition into the NFL, I believe Tolbert is ready to make an impact on Day 1 in the NFL.

Weaknesses:

  • A Couple DropsTolbert makes some very impressive catches throughout his tape, but there are also times he drops some easy passes. It’s easy to chalk it up to some ducks from the quarterback and the volume of passes headed his way, but you still want to see him secure the passes that make it into his hands. As long as this issue is cleaned up, there are very few issues with Tolbert’s game.
  • Transition into the NFLWhile I think there is little to be worried about here, I do have to make a note that it is a big jump from the Sun Belt Conference to the NFL. I would establish that this is less of a weakness and more of just a note. I think Tolbert is ready for the jump, but expectations should be checked at the door.

Projected Round/Contract:  

As with any other player as this point, we are waiting on draft capital. Tolbert will likely hear his name called on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, but it will make a big difference if he goes in the second or third round. Either way is truly a win for the receiver out of South Alabama, but if he gets the second round draft capital I’m hoping for, it is truly a sign of good things to come. If he goes in the middle to late second round you can expect his contract to be under 2 million a year.

Team Fits:  

Even though Tolbert is one of my favorite prospects in this draft class, I’m not going to tell you that he’s set up to become the Alpha for your favorite team. Tolbert projects well as a high-end WR2 in an NFL offense and there are plenty of teams that could use the extra push behind their current superstar. The first team that comes to mind if the Tennessee Titans. A.J. Brown ($1,413,092) is the bona-fide WR1 for that team, but the Julio Jones experiment failed, and the Titans lack depth at the position. Insert Tolbert across from Brown and it gives you a silky smooth operator across from one of the most physical receivers in the league. A combination like that could be extremely efficient for a run-first offense and they could make it happen in the third round if Tolbert is still around.

Another team ready for a strong #2, the Indianapolis Colts at pick #73 could be eyeing up a partner for another physical receiver, Michael Pittman Jr. ($2,153,213). A Pittman/Tolbert combination could pair nicely with Matt Ryan ($30,000,000). Even though Indianapolis is another run first offense with a physical #1 wideout, Tolbert has the ability to fit into just about any scheme. However, this type of offense could be the best for him to make the leap into the NFL.

Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind).

5 Players Rebuilding Owners Should Trade

avoid in a rebuild

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, did you miss me last week? I’m sure you didn’t but if you did, I’m back! In just a few days, the NFL will hold its annual draft and the dynasty nerds like us will be all ears. When it comes to Dynasty Owner, the draft is much more significant because you will have to pay each player you decide is good enough for your roster. Could you imagine having to fit someone like Sam Bradford under the cap years ago when the top rookie could be paid in the $50,000,000 range?

The draft has always been one of my favorite events of the year and it is even more significant to me because of Dynasty Owner. Before we jump into what we are all here for I would like to remind everyone of the Dynasty Owner Draft Pick Challenge. The Draft Pick Challenge is a contest offered by Dynasty Owner and the grand prize will go to any user who can guess the entire first round correctly. What is the grand prize you ask? $1,000,000!

In today’s article, I decided to do something a little more fun and will include just about all our rebuilding users. Today’s article will be about 5 players who I feel rebuilding owners should trade before the player’s value plummets. Every player you find on this list is a competent Dynasty Owner Starter but for one reason or another, it is time to move on. Below I will list each player along with the reasons I feel it’s time to move on from their services if you are rebuilding.

  1. Kyler Murray ($8,914,504)

While I am sure this may shock more than a few people, I do think it is time to move on from Kyler Murray as a rebuilding owner. Kyler has been less than happy with Arizona lately and while a change of scenery could benefit him, I don’t think it will help a ton, if it does at all. While a trade is far down the list of my worries with Murray, what I am most concerned about is his injury history. In 2023 (possibly 2022), Murray will receive a huge new contract and will be paid as a Top 5 quarterback.

If we are being honest, contenders can still justify rostering Kyler no problem because of his rushing ability. The grey area comes when you do not have a competitive roster. If Kyler was a bigger kid and ran a little less, he would have never found this list. The fact that he is small by NFL standards and has been banged up quite a bit with a massive new contract looming it makes him a sell for any rebuilding teams.

  • David Montgomery ($1,003,845)

I honestly feel bad for putting Montgomery on this list as he has shown what he is capable of the past two seasons when healthy. The key word in the last sentence is healthy and David Montgomery’s health came under fire in 2021. While the injuries are never a complete deterrent when you pair that with the fact Montgomery will be getting a new deal soon and now has an elite running quarterback to compete with, it makes Montgomery a massive sell for rebuilding owners. The last thing that worries me some with Montgomery is the emergence of Khalil Herbert when Montgomery was out due to injury last season. Even with all the concerns above, I do feel you can get a good value out of Montgomery, but I would try to move him in the short term.

  • DK Metcalf ($1,146,513)

If I am being honest, I had to be talked into this player being on this list and I will now do the same for you. Metcalf is an absolute physical specimen and that can’t be taken away from him, but he is very streaky and just got a massive downgrade at the quarterback position, on top of a new deal waiting soon. If you go back and look at Metcalf’s scoring throughout his career you will notice a player who always starts out hot and fades towards the end of the season, aside from one game where he explodes.

The one big question I ask myself with Metcalf is, are you ok paying him $25,000,000 or more with a huge question mark at the quarterback position? When talking to a friend about Metcalf he brought up an interesting point, he feels Metcalf has hit his ceiling early and while he will never be a scrub, he likely won’t ever be Top 5 either. As a rebuilding owner you need to be selective to whom you hand out massive contracts.

  • Dionte Johnson ($1,070,241)

As a Steelers fan who loves Dionte Johnson, putting him on this list makes me feel like the time I broke my 3-year-old daughter’s heart because her Spaghetti O’s had no meatballs. It’s a true story and she will never let me forget it! All jokes aside, Johnson is a perfect candidate for this list. The reasons for this are because Johnson is about to get paid in the $22,000,000 range per season and without Big Ben, I don’t see him as a Top 12 receiver.

While Johnson will still hold value, as a rebuilding owner, you should only be paying elite players big money and figure out your role players down the road. Over the past two seasons Johnson has put up fantastic numbers, but I believe the limitations of his quarterback played a huge role in that success oddly enough. I see Johnson as a Top 16-18 receiver moving forward which means he belongs with a contender when he gets paid. Trade him now as his value will tank the second he signs a new deal.

  • Noah Fant ($3,147,680)

In the final spot we have a player I have never been all that high on, Noah Fant. If I am being honest the judgement I have placed on Fant is probably a little unfair as he has never played with more than a backup level quarterback, but if we have never seen him play at an elite level, how do we know he can? The answer to that question should be that we just don’t care because he is about to get a new deal that will be north of $10,000,000 per year.

As I have mentioned with the players above when you are in a rebuild, it’s time to be selective about to whom you hand contracts out. The only way to look smart while paying Fant during a rebuild is if he ends up leaving Seattle and getting paired with a high-level signal-caller. A gamble I am just not willing to take as Fant will become extremely hard to trade after signing a new contract.

Summary

I know for a fact you will not feel great right after trading any of these players but that is kind of the point when rebuilding, you want to be miserable now and happy later. The best piece of advice I can give you when trying to trade any of these players (aside from Kyler) is that it’s ok to take a little less to get a deal done. Remember, the worst scenario here is holding onto one of these players to0 long and losing a ton of value because they got paid. I know free agency is over but rebuilding never sleeps!

Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out content from the other Dynasty Owner analysts, Steve, Matt, and Nate. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

Most Dropped Players in Dynasty Owner Off-Season

Most Dropped Players

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

We are well into the 2022 Dynasty Owner off-season and another milestone was reached last week when all current Dynasty Owner teams finally got under the $145.74 million salary cap for the 2022 season. Almost all teams did so voluntarily with a few teams needing the assistance of one of the Dynasty Owner team of Commissioners. With salary increases and free agent contract signings, Dynasty Owners were faced with decisions about which players to drop in order to fit under the 2022 salary cap.

On the Wednesday Dynasty Owner Livestream, Tim surprised me with a quiz about the most dropped players during the Dynasty Owner now that every Dynasty Owner team was under the $145.74 million salary cap. Basically, it was which players were dropped for free (most likely) by Dynasty Owners during the 30 days between the start of the new league year and the enforcement of the 2022 salary cap. If you watched, you might remember the identity of the most dropped player (if you didn’t watch or forgot, you’ll see his name again). For the record, I did not identify the player correctly.

In addition, since Jay Pounds was on vacation and hadn’t seen the Livestream, I did the same thing on the Dynasty Owner Podcast. Jay was also unable to identify the most dropped player.

Since neither Tim nor I produced the full list of most dropped players for our viewers or listeners, I thought it would be a good idea to break the list down by position to see which position had the most players. In addition to listing them, I will also highlight a player on the list at each position who I don’t think belongs on it and should have been kept by more Dynasty Owners.

All of the most dropped players either became free agents in the off-season and remain unsigned, or received a new contract that became effective during the off-season once the new contract was signed. Either way, these contract changes enabled their Dynasty Owners to drop those players for free and avoid the usual 25% of the total remaining contract drop fee.

The list is in order of the number of Dynasty Owner leagues in which the player was dropped. The current roster percentage might be higher for a player dropped in more leagues. Using the percentage of leagues may have been fairer, but some data are unavailable, so I’ve gone with what we have. Regardless of the method of counting, a lot of Dynasty Owners have decided that these players aren’t worth their new salaries in 2022. Anyone doing a 2022 start-up Dynasty Owner draft should take heed and think about whether or not these players are worth drafting when start-up drafts begin on May 14th, which is just three weeks away.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all statistics, roster percentages and 2021 position ranks were current as of the afternoon of April 25th. All 2022 contract information is currently listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries) and has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/). Players with salary figures in italics are free agents, have not signed yet for 2022 and have their 2021 salary listed.

Quarterbacks

As the most expensive players in Dynasty Owner, you may have expected a lot of the most dropped players to be QBs. However, there were only two (Cam Newton and Sam Darnold) who were among the Top 10 most dropped players and just two more within the Top 25. At a salary of $18.858 million for 2022, Sam Darnold is the player with the highest salary on the Top 25 most dropped list. While Dwayne Haskins was dropped by the second most Dynasty Owner teams overall due to his death, he was not included below.

PlayerDrop Rank2021 Rank2021 Points per Game2022 SalaryRoster Percentage
Cam NewtonT-5QB3711.5$6,000,00013.9%
Sam Darnold9QB3015.3$18,858,00027.85%
Teddy Bridgewater13QB2318.8$6,500,00043.0%
Mason RudolphT-17QB5410.55$5,080,00021.5%
Baker Mayfield27QB2616.3$18,858,00062.7%

Baker Mayfield was just outside of the Top 25, but I included him since I wanted to have five QBs on the list. He is also the only player listed who is still currently on a roster in a majority of Dynasty Owner leagues.

Player Who Shouldn’t Be on this List: Teddy Bridgewater

The only reason that Bridgewater was dropped by so many Dynasty Owners is that he’s now the backup to Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. However, Tua isn’t exactly the model of health and seems likely to not be able to start all 17 regular season games in 2022. Last season, Tua only played in 13 games with his backup, Jacoby Brissett, starting four games and playing significant time in two other games. In 2020, Tua was named the starter for Week 8, was injured in Week 11 and missed Week 12. Don’t forget that he missed his final two regular season college games and the bowl game in 2019. He hasn’t played a full season since 2018.

It’s because of all of his injuries that Teddy B is going to play some QB for the Dolphins in 2022. It is true that paying $6.5 million for a backup QB is a lot, however, it’s almost a full $5 million less than his 2021 salary. With the playmakers on the Dolphins’ roster (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chase Edmonds, Mike Gesicki), it’s a great situation for a backup QB to walk into and possibly play well enough to use as your Bench QB. I kept Teddy B in both of the Dynasty Owner leagues in which he’s on my roster and look forward to using him when the inevitable happens and Tua gets hurts.

Running Backs

In contrast to the QBs, all six of the RBs who ranked in the Top 25 most dropped players are still NFL free agents right now. I would expect most of them to eventually sign with a team and be on a roster as a backup RB to start the season. Carlos Hyde is the likely exception as he’s the oldest player on this list at age 31 and Urban Meyer isn’t going to be a NFL Head Coach again.

PlayerDrop Rank2021 Rank2021 Points per Game2022 SalaryRoster Percentage
David JohnsonT-5RB626.2$5,000,00018.35%
Devontae BookerT-14RB349.0$2,750,00039.9%
Carlos HydeT-15RB863.65$2,250,00012.7%
Devonta FreemanT-17RB329.35$1,075,00041.8%
Jordan Howard22RB718.9$990,00030.4%
Jeremy McNichols23RB675.3$920,00024.7%
Tarik CohenT-24N/AN/A$5,750,00013.9%

Both Johnson and Freeman are 30 years old, while Booker is 29, Howard is 27, and Cohen and McNichols are only 26. Cohen hasn’t played since Week 3 of the 2020 season and at $5.75 million had a contract that was just too expensive to keep. Both Jordan Howard and Jeremy McNichols have contracts of less than $1 million, making them the two lowest paid players in the Top 25 most dropped.

Player Who Shouldn’t Be on this List: Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman was dropped in more Dynasty Owner leagues than Latavius Murray, his teammate in Baltimore in 2021. Murray is older than Freeman (32 vs. 30 for Freeman) and didn’t play as well as in 2021 (7.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game vs. 9.35 for Freeman), but is still rostered in slightly more Dynasty Owner leagues (42.4%) than Freeman. At the same salary. That doesn’t make sense to me.

Back to Freeman as even though he is the most rostered RB on this list, I’m surprised that he is available in a majority of Dynasty Owner leagues now. The ability to drop him for free since he is a free agent is understandable, but his salary is only $1.075 million and if he gets a bigger contract for 2022 that you don’t like, you’ll have an opportunity to drop him for free again. The fact that he joined the Ravens only three days before their first game and ended up playing in 16 games, led the team RBs in rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards and tied with Murray for the most TDs shows me that he could do the same thing for another team in 2022. He scored 149.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with seven games of 10.0 or more points, so he was an adequate Bench RB or even a FLEX starter for a good portion of the season. I think that’s worth a Practice Squad stash for only a little over a million dollars.

Wide Receivers

There are more WRs on the most dropped list than any other position. That’s not surprising at all. Out of the eight WRs on the list, half were still free agents when the Dynasty Owner salary cap started to be enforced and the other half had signed new free agent deals. A.J. Green was still listed on the Dynasty Owner platform as a free agent with a $6 million salary when salary cap enforcement started.

PlayerDrop Rank2021 Rank2021 Points per Game2022 SalaryRoster Percentage
Cole BeasleyT-3WR419.9$7,250,00019.0%
Christian KirkT-7WR2712.2$18,000,00048.7%
Antonio BrownT-7WR6317.3$3,075,00036.1%
Cedrick WilsonT-10WR489.2$7,350,00037.3%
Robby AndersonT-10WR538.1$14,750,00012.0%
A.J. Green12WR429.8$3,500,00035.4%
Emmanuel SandersT-17WR589.4$6,000,00019.6%
Kalif Raymond20WR548.65$4,750,00023.4%

All of these WRs, except Christian Kirk, finished well outside of the Top 24 WRs and should not have been starting for your Dynasty Owner team. Kirk received the largest total contract (4 years/$72 million) of anyone on the Top 25 most dropped, which explains his presence. Antonio Brown had the best season of any player on the list by far, averaging 17.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, he was released by Tampa Bay after an incident during a game against the Jets and at age 33, may have played his final NFL game.

Player Who Shouldn’t Be on this List: A.J. Green

This is a little unfair as Dynasty Owners with A.J. Green on their team had to decide whether or not to keep him at his $6 million salary because his 2022 contract amount wasn’t immediately available. That left them to wonder how much he would be making in 2022 and possibly caused some to drop him to get under the cap. His salary wasn’t updated until a few days ago and was first listed as a one-year contract for $3 million. The contract has been updated and is now listed as $3.5 million for one year, so his salary will be going up another $500,000. His roster percentage should be higher now and at that revised amount.

I’ll admit that I wasn’t on the A.J. Green bandwagon last season at $6 million, but I’ve changed my opinion for 2022 and would be happy to have him on my Dynasty Owner roster at just $3.5 million. He is the WR2 for Arizona right now and it’s possible that he retains that spot once the season starts. Last year, he was moving to a new team and was the WR3 behind DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. A healthy DeAndre Hopkins plus the presence of Zach Ertz for the entire 2022 season will reduce Green’s targets, but hopefully he’ll have a full season of Kyler Murray at QB to make up for it.

Tight Ends

At TE, we have two of the most dropped players in Dynasty Owner this off-season, including the most dropped player of all in Taysom Hill. Since Hill is now listed as a TE, he is included here even though everyone who had him on their roster in 2021 used him as a QB.

PlayerDrop Rank2021 Rank2021 Points per Game2022 SalaryRoster Percentage
Taysom Hill1TE1711.2$10,000,00021.5%
Tyler ConklinT-3TE168.1$6,750,00024.7%
Jared Cook16TE198.3$4,500,00023.4%
Will Dissly21TE543.3$8,000,0008.9%
Blake JarwinT-24TE684.1$5,500,00010.8%

Honestly, I was surprised that more TEs didn’t crack the Top 25. Both Ian Thomas and Evan Engram spring to mind, but neither was even in the Top 50. Engram got a salary increase of almost $3 million after finishing 2021 as TE24, but is still rostered in 65.2% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Thomas is rostered in only 11.4% of leagues after his TE63 finish in 2021. Thomas was likely rostered in fewer leagues at the end of last season, which could explain his omission.

Player Who Shouldn’t Be on this List: None – they all deserve it

None of these players should be the starting TE on your Dynasty Owner team, so none of them deserve to take up $4.5 million or more in salary cap room. Tyler Conklin was an excellent Bench TE and bye week or injury replacement in 2021, but his salary was also just $685,258. At nearly ten times that amount on the Jets splitting time with C.J. Uzomah ($8,000,000), it was a no brainer to drop him for free as soon as his contract changed. And if you didn’t, I have good news for you. His salary went down from $7 million per season to $6.75 million recently, so you still might be able to drop him for free. If so, go do that now!

Kickers

No kickers were in the Top 25 most dropped players. It makes sense as there are only 32 starting NFL kickers, and you should have at least two (and preferably three) on your Dynasty Owner roster. The most dropped kicker was Greg Zuerlein who is still on a roster in 72.15% of Dynasty Owner leagues now. He may have been dropped by some Dynasty Owners after his release from Dallas and then picked up after he got signed by the Jets. Both Michael Badgley and Chase McLaughlin were also in the Top 50 most dropped players.

The two kickers who signed the biggest off-season contracts after making less than $1 million in 2021 were both outside of the Top 50. Younghoe Koo signed an extension with Atlanta for $4.85 million per year (5 years/$24.25 million) and Jason Sanders signed an extension with Miami for $4.4 million per year (5 years/$22 million). Both are still rostered in a significant number of Dynasty Owner leagues (74.7% for Koo and 67.7% for Sanders).

Few Dynasty Owners dropped Daniel Carlson even though he signed a new 4-year/$18.4 million contract ($4.6 million per year) with Las Vegas. They had him on their roster at $3.384 million in 2021 and he finished as the #1 kicker, so most were ok with paying him an extra $1.216 million.

Conclusion

It will be interesting to see if any of the players on this list see an uptick, or further downward slide, in roster percentage after the NFL Draft. After the draft is over, many of those who are still free agents will sign with a team and have their 2022 salaries known. Signing a minimum salary contract, or for something close to that amount, will make it more likely that the likes of Cole Beasley, Devonta Freeman, David Johnson and Emmanuel Sanders will be added to some Dynasty Owner rosters.

The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream continues with Tim Peffer and me on Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). We weren’t able to finish our look at NFC team needs and will hopefully get to that, but also need to discuss WR and TE NFL Draft prospects since the NFL Draft is only a couple of days away. Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it starting Wednesday evenings wherever you get your podcasts.

Jay Pounds and I are also doing a weekly Dynasty Owner podcast. If you haven’t checked one out, go do it now to hear us talk about Dynasty Owner and what’s been happening in our 2022 off-season. The 2021 Chase for the Ring Champ SKOL Vikings posted “Great job, good listen!” on Twitter and we’re proud to have that endorsement. New podcasts are scheduled to drop on Friday mornings so download them and listen on your way to work, or while you’re there.

Finally, please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster and his articles appear on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and doing prospect previews to get Dynasty Owners ready for rookie drafts every Thursday. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday with Matt Morrison – The Jerk and his current New Contract Spotlight series.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

New Contract Spotlight

Davante Adams

Davante Adams 

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk

As we all expected, free agency news is starting to die down. The majority of the top free agents have been signed. I put out a Top 10 free agent list back in mid-March and there are only two players (Odell Beckham Jr. and Melvin Gordon) from that list who are still unsigned. I still look forward to finding where each of these players will land. I’m especially interested in Gordon for what it would mean to second year running back Javonte Williams. A Denver backfield without Gordon would be a Dynasty Owner’s dream. In the same way, I think the signing of OBJ could disrupt the wide receiver hierarchy for several teams. As we wait for news about both of these top free agents, let’s talk about some news and a new contract. 

The News 

Geno Smith (Signed by Seattle at 1 year – $3,500,000) 

I struggled with putting Geno into this article as news. I decided to include him for two reasons.  The first reason being that there is very little free agency news this week, so I had to reach in order to include anyone. The second reason is that I think Smith actually has a chance to start more than one game for the Seahawks this year. Let me explain… 

Drew Lock is the current starting quarterback for Seattle. This is a dubious position for the Seahawks. He is in the final year of his rookie contract, and I don’t believe he will have a very long leash this season. While it’s not impossible that Seattle will take a quarterback with the 9th overall pick, I’m not fully convinced they will. This quarterback class has been touted as worse than the two previous years and likely not as good as the 2023 class will be. This class also seems to be more shallow than in previous years. For these reasons, I think it’s possible Seattle is content to ride with Lock for just one season. 

That being said, it is also likely that Lock will underperform (especially in a stacked defensive division). My prediction is that Geno Smith will start at least two games for Seattle this year. I’d roster him for that chance and only a 3.5 million dollar salary. 

New Contract Spotlight 

Today we’re going to be talking about Davante Adams. He is one player who I did not anticipate talking about much in this off-season, at least after his franchise tag was signed. There was always a chance that Adams and the Packers would work out a long term deal before the deadline. 

As it turns out, Adams did sign a massive long-term contract, but it was on the backside of a trade with the Raiders. He is currently 29 years old, and he will obviously become the Number one receiver for the Raiders. The biggest question most of us are asking ourselves is: 

“Can he repeat as the WR2?” 

My answer is that he can, but I would not predict it. I think the move from a more rounded team and quarterback to a less rounded one will produce less scoring opportunities for Adams. I find it hard to believe that he will average over ten and half targets per game, like he did in each of the past four seasons, with Derek Carr. Again, all of this is not to say that Adams won’t be dominant. He will be. I just hesitate to claim that he will be as dominant as the previous two seasons when he finished WR2 (2021) and WR1 (2020) in Dynasty Owner. Let’s look at how Adams’ contract compares to some recent wide receivers with similar production. 

Player Signing Age Status Team Salary per Year Season Finish 
Davante Adams 29 Signed Las Vegas $28,000,000 TBD 
DeAndre Hopkins 27 Signed Arizona $27,250,000 WR4 (2020) 
Michael Thomas 26 Signed New Orleans $19,250,000 WR1 (2019) 
Julio Jones 30 Signed Atlanta $22,000,000 WR3 (2019) 

I want to preface these comparisons by saying that there is really no great comparison for Adams at his current salary and production. The comparisons lack because Adams is making an unprecedented amount of money. However, he was the WR2 last year. If he repeated that feat, these are the three players who would compare best to him over the last three years. 

DeAndre Hopkins is the closest recent comparison at least in terms of salary. In his first big contract year with the Cardinals, he finished as WR4. That occurred way back in 2020. 

Michael Thomas is a very good comp if you look at his 2019 finish combined with his salary at the time. He became a top paid wide receiver in 2019 with the Saints. He also was the WR1 in that season. Expect a similar finish from Adams as well as a similar DD/PT ($51,525 for Thomas in 2019). 

Finally, we have Julio Jones’ 2019 season as well. In that year he received a $22,000,000 contract as he turned 30 years old. He finished two slots (WR3) behind Thomas in 2019. 

Conclusion 

Davante Adams will not be a great player to own from a value standpoint. I’m not sure anyone would argue otherwise. With that said, he will obviously be owned in every Dynasty Owner league, and he will likely finish as a Top 10 WR. He’s just one of those players who you have to work his high salary into your plan. 

Thank you for reading and have a great weekend. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. I’ll see you next week for a new Contract Spotlight article. Take care everyone and be safe. 

TheJerk 

Prospect Preview

Kenny Pickett

Kenny Pickett

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

Position: QB 

College: Pittsburgh 

Height: 6’ 3” 

Weight: 217 lbs. 

Age: 23 

247 Rating: 0.8538 (3 Stars) 

The Rundown: 

A bit of a late bloomer, Pickett became one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this past season as he led Pittsburgh to an ACC Championship. Is his late breakout a sign of improvement and true skill, or was it simply a fluke?  

College Production: 

After four seasons at Pittsburgh where he averaged a 60% completion rate, 13 passing touchdowns and only 1,869 passing yards a season; Pickett took a huge leap in his fifth year with the team. In 2021, Pickett completed 334 passes at a 67.2% completion rate for 4,319 passing yards and 42 touchdowns. An impressive season and NFL teams started paying attention. 

Strengths: 

  • Reads the Field Well 
  • The Pittsburgh offensive scheme required Pickett to make reads and work his way around the field from inside the pocket. He’ll come into the NFL as a high floor prospect because of his experience in a pro-style system, working off route combinations and showing off good anticipation to let plays develop. 
  • Solid Arm Talent 
  • While Pickett may lack a true cannon of an arm, he has plenty of strength to be able to make off-platform throws and get himself out of trouble with his arm. He may not be the one to constantly push the ball down the field, but he has good velocity on his throws that helps him get the ball into tight windows in the middle of the field. 
  • Athletic Upside 
  • If you haven’t seen the fake slide yet, take a second to watch it on YouTube. No matter your thoughts on that play, Pickett offers good mobility and rushing upside for a kid who was recruited out of high school as a pro-style QB. When he gets to the next level he’ll be able to produce 200-300 rushing yards a season with a couple touchdowns as well, always a nice bonus for your Dynasty Owner team. 

Weaknesses: 

  • Ball Security in the Pocket 
  • While the worries of Pickett and his small hands may or may not be overblown, ball security is certainly a worry. He came in with a measurement of 8 ⅝ inches at his pro day, which would be one of the smallest in the league. Whether or not that is actually an issue is to be debated, but it can lead to some ball security issues if he’s flailing the ball around with one hand as he tends to do at times. That needs to be cleaned up, otherwise we could be looking at a Daniel Jones ($6,416,014) level of turnovers. 
  • Sub-Par Deep Ball 
  • While Pickett does have the strength to get the ball down the field, on his deep balls, they just don’t have the kick that the rest of his passes have. He tends to get a lot of air under the ball, which can lead to unnecessary contested catch situations. This could be improved with a bit better footwork when stepping up into the pocket and when throwing on the run. Pickett has shown the ability to improve, and teams may not be too worried about working with him at the next level. 

Things to Watch: 

Pickett looked solid at the NFL Combine in throwing drills as well as a good showing of a 4.73 40-yard dash time. He was able to show off his athletic ability, and teams will love to see the competitor in him come out. He had a solid pro day as well and has done nothing to hurt himself except measure small with his hands. At the end of the day many scouts and teams seem 50/50 on whether his hand size is even an issue at all. 

Projected Round/Contract:   

It seems inevitable that Pickett is a first rounder, he may go within the Top Ten, or he may fall into the 20s. It’s quite difficult to predict the draft this year, especially at the quarterback position. If he goes Top 10, he’ll be looking at a nice contract of at least $5.7 million a year, with the potential for more the higher he is selected. 

Team Fits:   

It seems like one team in particular has been especially interested in Kenny Pickett throughout this draft process, and that would be the Carolina Panthers. Matt Rhule recruited Pickett when he was the head coach at Temple, and now would get the chance to finally work with a kid he saw potential in six years ago. Pickett would give this team a Day 1 starter, and the Panthers have some decent offensive pieces to surround him with. Of course, there’s Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) but also D.J. Moore ($20,628,000) who just signed a contract extension. So far, Rhule hasn’t had much luck working with quarterbacks, but to be fair he hasn’t really been given a chance to work with a guy that he is really excited about. 

If Pickett doesn’t end up with the Panthers then my second guess is a team that would be a bit surprising, the New Orleans Saints. Gone are the Drew Brees and Sean Peyton days, but Pickett seems built for the Saints offense and playing within a dome half the season. The Saints own the 16th and 19th pick in the draft and if they want to get a quarterback to compete with Jameis Winston ($14,000,000) and possibly develop into a franchise quarterback, Pickett is not a bad pick. 

Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind). 

Prospect Preview

Trey McBride

Trey McBride

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

Position: TE 

College: Colorado State 

Height: 6’ 4” 

Weight: 246lbs 

Age: 22 

247 Rating: 0.8311 (3 stars) 

The Rundown: 

Widely considered the best tight end in the 2022 NFL Draft class, McBride boasted a productive college career in the Mountain West and now is on his way to the pros. Known as both a blocker and a receiving threat, McBride brings a lot to table for a NFL team to get him on the field right away. Once he gets on the field what is McBride’s potential? Does he have the potential to be one of the top at his position, or will he join the crowded mid-tier of tight ends in dynasty? 

College Production: 

After a year on the sidelines, McBride showed out his sophomore year and immediately became one of the more productive TEs in college football. He put together 45 catches for 560 yards and four touchdowns, ending his season with a 9/101/1 stat line against Boise State in the last game of the season. During a COVID-shortened season in 2020, he put together 22/330/4 in just four games. It should be noted that the team only threw four touchdowns in those four games. He finished off his college career with a very impressive senior year, totaling 90 catches for 1,121 yards and a touchdown.  

Strengths: 

  • Physical in All Areas 
  • There are no issues with initiating contact and staying upright through the middle of the field with McBride. He brings a bit of that old-school temperament to the tight end position and teams love to see that. Whether it’s along the line of scrimmage or in contested catch situations, McBride does not shy away from physicality and knows how to use his body to beat defenders in the air. 
  • Secure Hands 
  • A true “security blanket”, McBride only had six drops during his college career. He’s trustworthy across all areas of the field, whether it’s deep and outside the numbers or between the hashes near the first down marker. The CSU offense may not have been prolific, but McBride was constantly the best and safest option for that passing attack. 
  • Great Blocker 
  • A prospect who will be on the field Day 1, McBride offers versatility and the ability to play snaps throughout the whole game regardless of the score. He’s been seen outside or in the slot, but most often he was used as an in-line tight end. He’s a prototypical all-around tight end who can set the edge, but also make the defense pay on play action. You have to be on the field to score fantasy points and McBride should have no issue with finding snaps. 

Weaknesses: 

  • Lack of Elite Athleticism  
  • McBride is a very safe option for a NFL team to take a swing on. He offers upside in the passing game as well as an option to add an extra blocker in run situations. But there is a chance that McBride ends up being a better NFL player than asset for your dynasty team due to his lack of elite athleticism. On film, he has enough speed to get through the motions, but he won’t blow you away with his agility to acceleration. A solid option, nonetheless, just don’t expect him to be someone he is not. 
  • Play Ends Where He Catches 
  • In college, McBride averaged about 13 yards per catch, overall solid numbers for a tight end. He’s a safe option for the quarterback but he’s unlikely to offer the ability to make defenders miss once he has the ball in his hands. He isn’t a burner and while he has enough speed and physicality to open up the seam, he isn’t going to outrun many linebackers once he’s found space. 

Things to Watch: 

At the NFL Combine, McBride opted out of running the 40-Yard Dash, but still bench pressed 18 reps of 225 and showed off a solid vertical of 33 inches. At his pro day he ran a reported 4.56 and teams will be very happy with that. While I’m not sure that track speed is parallel to his in-game speed, it does show that he was able to train and get good results out of the pre-draft drills.  

Projected Round/Contract:   

McBride will likely hear his name called during Day 2 of the NFL Draft. My expectation would be somewhere in the second round, he’ll find a home. McBride may lack some of the athletic upside that other TEs have offered in the past, but the fact that he is pro-ready should get a couple of teams excited about finding a plug & play player. If he goes near the end of the second round, we can expect a four year deal averaging about $1.5 to $1.7 million a year. 

Team Fits:   

While many people may be excited about the sudden rise of Albert Okwuegbunam ($1,011,011), the Broncos may want to bring in some competition to make sure their offense is completely ready for Russell Wilson ($35,000,000). While this may be a bit of a damper for fantasy football purposes, McBride would fit well into that team’s offense and could be very effective in the red zone, similar to how Robert Tonyan ($3,750,000) was used in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense in Green Bay. 
 
Many teams that need tight ends in this year’s draft already have franchise quarterbacks, and that’s what you love to hear when you’re investing in one of these young tight ends with your rookie picks. Another team that seems desperate for a solid player there would be the Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert ($6,644,688) has shown that he will throw to the position often and McBride would have no issues finding a role in a position group that currently boasts Gerald Everett ($6,000,000), Tre McKitty ($1,196,463), and Donald Parham ($895,000). 

Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind). 

Mixed Bag of Questions

mixed bag of questions

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

First of all, Happy Patriots Day to my fellow Dynasty Owners! Many of you are wondering why I’m giving a shout out to the New England Patriots in the middle of April, but I’m not talking about those Patriots. Instead, I’m talking about the Patriots who fought the British Army at the Battles of Lexington and Concord in the Revolutionary War. It’s a wonderful day – kids get the day off from school since it’s a holiday in Massachusetts (and Maine, Wisconsin, Connecticut and North Dakota – not sure if kids get the day off in those states), the Boston Marathon takes place, and the Boston Red Sox have a home game at Fenway Park that starts at 11 AM. Just as important this year, it’s the day after Dynasty Owners should have gotten the salaries for the players on their Dynasty Owner rosters down to $145.74 million or less.

At this point of the off-season, I was hoping to be looking at some 2021 data to analyze how the teams in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring and League Champions put together their winning teams. Unfortunately, I had some computer issues during the week and haven’t downloaded the data that I need to answer those questions.

In its place, I’ve put together a mixed bag of questions that are either on my agenda to tackle in an upcoming article or another Dynasty Owner has suggested that I do research on and discuss in an upcoming article. Two questions are rookie-related and can’t really be answered until after the NFL Draft (April 28 – April 30) is over.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

For the purposes of this article, all data were current as of the morning of April 18th. All 2022 contract information is currently listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries) and has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).

Which Chase for the Ring Champion Had the Best Season?

Nobody has asked me to tackle this issue, but it’s something that I think is interesting. The rules of Dynasty Owner have changed since the 2019 Beta season so you can’t just stack up the teams, see who had the best record or scored the most points and declare them the winner. It will actually take some analysis and digging into some comparable data.

At first look, here’s how they stack up overall:

YearTeamOverall RecordNumber of WeeksTotal DOFPDOFP per Week
2019New York’s Strongest16-0162417.3151.1
2020Barbee Kilgore12-3162810.0175.6
2021SKOL Vikings15-1172941.6173.0

Both our 2020 and 2021 Champions had first round playoff byes, which is why they have one less game in their overall record compared to the number of weeks. In 2019, only four out of ten teams made the playoffs and therefore, the playoffs only took two weeks. In terms of record, New York’s Strongest was undefeated, while Barbee Kilgore averaged the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) per week.

However, if we only look at the regular season, we see that things change slightly as SKOL Vikings just barely edge ahead in terms of DOFP per week:

YearTeamRegular SeasonNumber of WeeksRegular Season DOFPDOFP per Week
2019New York’s Strongest14-0142056.0146.9
2020Barbee Kilgore10-3132258.8173.75
2021SKOL Vikings13-1142440.1174.3

In the playoffs, New York’s Strongest came out and scored a lot of points to win both of their playoff match-ups. While they didn’t have quite as many DOFP per week on average as Barbee Kilgore, there was no FLEX position in 2019 so New York’s Strongest had one less player accumulating points.

YearTeamPlayoff WeeksPlayoffs DOFPDOFP per Week
2019New York’s Strongest2361.3180.65
2020Barbee Kilgore3551.2183.7
2021SKOL Vikings3501.5167.2

Based on these measures, any of the three Champions could have had the Best season. We’ll have to gather some additional data to make a final decision.

How Much Salary Cap Room Do I Need for Rookies?

I know that a lot of Dynasty Owners wanted to know the answer to this question before they had to get under the $145.74 million salary cap and the honest answer to that question right now is “It depends”. If you want a better answer now, then check out my 2021 article on this subject.

If you don’t want to read the whole article, then here are the highlights. The minimum amount in 2021 was $808,333, the cost of one undrafted rookie free agent, up to a maximum of $82.115 million for the one Dynasty Owner in 2021 who had 16 rookie draft picks. That amount was how much the top 16 picks in the 2021 drafts in the Dynasty Owner player pool received in contracts. The typical amount for Dynasty Owners with a “normal” amount of draft picks was a range from $5.7 million to $26.4 million.

For 2022, we have the rookie contract amounts in the Spotrac NFL 2022 Draft Tracker (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/), but we don’t know for sure who’s getting picked at what spot yet. Unless, of course, you know and entered the Dynasty Owner Draft Pick Challenge 2022 to win yourself that $1 million prize for a perfect first round (https://draftpickchallenge.com/login). If you’re like the rest of us, you’ll need to estimate this amount as best as you can now and here’s some helpful information for that estimate.

Pick2021 Salary2022 SalarySalary IncreasePercent Increase
1st overall$9,198,372$10,366,352$1,167,98012.7%
24th overall$3,261,862$3,637,838$375,97611.5%
49th overall$1,731,060$1,902,809$171,7499.9%
88th overall$1,218,234$1,321,564$103,3308.5%
107th overall$1,071,842$1,143,770$71,9286.7%
258th overall$889,317$936,604$47,2875.3%

Obviously, the #1 pick in 2021 was Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC). The #24 overall pick was the first RB taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, Najee Harris (RB – PIT). The #49 pick was a middle of the second round selection, Rondale Moore (WR – ARI), while the #88 pick was an end of the third round pick who was tabbed as a huge sleeper in the off-season and didn’t pan out, Trey Sermon (RB – SF). The first skill position player taken on Day 3 of the draft was the second pick of the fourth round (#107 overall), Michael Carter (RB – NYJ). Finally, Dax Milne (WR – WAS) was the next to last player chosen overall (#258). It’s a sliding scale with the top pick in 2022 getting $1.168 million more than Lawrence did for an increase of 12.7%, while the next to last pick will receive only $47,287 more than Milne, an increase of just 5.3%.

For very rough 2022 rookie draft estimates, I’d go with $851,175 for one undrafted rookie free agent, or 5.3% more than it cost in 2021. For the typical amount, I think a 10% increase is safe, so we’re talking about $6.27 million to $29.04 million. I’m not going to attempt to touch the top end amount until I research who has the most draft picks and the Dynasty Owner salaries of the top rookies in the Dynasty Owner platform. It’s just too difficult to do right now.

Why the Huge Rookie Salary Cap Range?

The follow-up question is a sensible one and best answered by looking at two QBs anticipated to be drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft – Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett.

For Willis, I’ve seen a mock draft with him as the #2 selection to the Detroit Lions and I’ve also seen a mock draft with him as the #32 selection, also to the Detroit Lions. In a regular dynasty league, to paraphrase the Rock, “it’s doesn’t matter what pick Malik Willis was!” He’s playing for the Lions, likely for the next four years.

In Dynasty Owner, the difference is huge! It’s the difference between paying him almost $10 million per year and paying him just over $3.1 million.

PickTotal ContractDynasty Owner Annual Salary
1.24 years, $39,603,429$9,900,857
1.324 years, $12,424,832$3,106,208

This is probably an extreme case, so let’s look at Kenny Pickett. He’s rumored as the Panthers’ choice with the 6th pick in the first round. However, he could slip down to the Steelers with the 20th pick and play his NFL home games in the same stadium (Heinz Field) that he played his college home games.

PickTotal ContractDynasty Owner Annual Salary
1.64 years, $30,462,810$7,615,703
1.204 years, $15,313,075$3,828,269

Kenny Pickett staying in Pittsburgh at roughly half of the salary that he would get if he was selected by Carolina is a big difference for Dynasty Owners. At $3.8 million, Dynasty Owners could easily fit Pickett onto their team if they kept the low end of the salary range ($6.27 million) and he’s taken by the Steelers. However, they can’t afford to draft him if he’s drafted sixth and playing for the Panthers.

Don’t panic about this right now, you still have a month to make roster moves before rookie drafts start on May 27th. It may cost you some Dynasty Dollars to cut a player or two from your roster and get to the amount of salary cap room that you want for your team, but you don’t have to do it for a while.

How Can We Determine the Best Dynasty Owner Team So Far?

A few people want to know how to determine the “best” Dynasty Owner team. For some, they argue that winning the Chase for the Ring is great and a huge accomplishment, but it’s a one-year thing and the goal is to build a Dynasty. Success over a longer period of time, say five years, would be a better measuring stick. Dynasty Owners hasn’t been around for five years yet, just two with the current format, but we can look at a couple of things to start the conversation.

The first is to find out how many repeat winners we had in the same league in both 2020 and 2021. Some of the teams may have changed Owners between the years, but if your Dynasty Owner teams won the League Championship in both years, it’s a pretty good measure that you’re on your way to building a Dynasty.

Another way is more complicated and requires finding out how teams are stacking up against all of the other teams in their league or on Dynasty Owner over a set time period. Again, we can do that for a 5-year timeframe, but we can start looking at it with just two years of data and update it every year. The complete methodology hasn’t been determined, but it would likely involve figuring out how much better (or worse) a Dynasty Owner team is than the rest of the teams. Figuring out how many points a “normal” Dynasty Owner team scores on a weekly basis then comparing each individual team against that benchmark. It’s a work in progress, but hopefully something that can get done this off-season.

Let’s face it, it’s possible to have the best team in your league and not win the League Championship. There have been plenty of teams on the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring Leaderboard at the end of the regular season who aren’t on the final Leaderboard because they didn’t win their League. In 2020, All Might (League #27455) was sitting in third place on the Chase Leaderboard after the regular season. However, they lost to Average Joe’s in their League finals and dropped off the final Leaderboard. All Might finished first in their League in both seasons, but haven’t won a Championship. That’s a great Dynasty Owner team and maybe one of the best without a Championship. They might not be as well; we’ll have to look and find out.

Is It Possible to “Buy” a Dynasty Owner Championship?

It is possible? Sure, anything is possible, but it’s not typical or frequently done in my estimation. To find out what Dynasty Owners think about this, we have asked whether people agree or disagree with the following statement in both post-season surveys.

It’s possible to buy your way to a Dynasty Owner title by purchasing Dynasty Dollars and then bidding higher than everyone else for available Free Agents

In the 2020 survey, a majority (56%) agreed with this statement, while one-quarter (26%) disagreed. The numbers moved in 2021 with only half (49%) agreeing with the statement and one-third (34%) disagreeing. I believe that as Dynasty Owner moves on and people gain experience with the platform, they will have more years and leagues in which the League Champion didn’t spend the most Dynasty Dollars and still won. A percentage will always think it’s possible to buy a Championship, but I predict that percentage will continue to decline.

My opinion that I don’t believe you can “buy” a Championship is based on my personal experience. I think drafting is more important. In my long-time redraft league that has been in existence for 21 years now, the team that has spent the most money in free agency has won the League Championship exactly once (2018). The team who has outspent the rest of the teams in the league in transaction fees ($5 per waiver claim) in 13 out of 19 years (no transaction data for the first two years) has won exactly zero titles. That team chases the hot free agent after every week and put him in their lineup to mixed results. It’s not a sustainable way to win.

Dynasty Owner is different, much different than this league, but I think the principles of smart drafting and not chasing after the hot free agent every week still stands. The benefit of good drafting might flatten out in a dynasty league versus a redraft league, but with rookie drafts every year, the teams that draft well will still have an advantage. We’ll see if it’s true after I do all of the research, but I’m pretty confident that it will.

Similar questions that has been asked of me are about how much Dynasty Owners are spending out of their own pockets to maintain a competitive team and how much people are spending on a rebuild team. Those are great questions and I hope to be able to investigate further and present some thoughts about that at a later time.

Conclusion

It looks like I’ve got a pretty full bag of things to work on during the remainder of the Dynasty Owner off-season. Answering these questions plus looking at how 2021 League Champions drafted and put together their teams, just as I did last off-season, will also be on my off-season agenda. However, if you have a question about Dynasty Owner that you’d like me to look at, don’t hesitate to send me a tweet (@SteveVT33) and I’ll let you know if I can do it.

The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream continues with Tim Peffer and me on Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). We started looking at NFC teams (East and North) moves in free agency and those teams’ needs moving forward. We will finish with the NFC South and West this week and also looking at the incoming group of NFL rookies with a focus on RBs this week. Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it starting Wednesday evenings wherever you get your podcasts.

Jay Pounds and I are also doing a weekly Dynasty Owner podcast. If you haven’t checked out the first two of them, go do it now to hear us talk about Dynasty Owner and what’s been happening in our 2022 off-season. New podcasts are scheduled to drop on Friday mornings so download them and listen on your way to work, or while you’re there.

Finally, please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster and his articles appear on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and is doing prospect previews to get Dynasty Owners ready for rookie drafts every Thursday. Nate will have an additional preview this Tuesday as Jay has the week off. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday with Matt Morrison – The Jerk and his current New Contract Spotlight series.

Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

New Contract Spotlight

Mike Williams Chargers article

Mike Williams

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk

The NFL Draft is less than two weeks away. I’m sure most of us will be captivated by it during that weekend, especially the first round. I’m planning on doing several “New Contract Spotlight” articles on rookies once they are drafted. After all, they will technically be on new contracts. This won’t start until at least the first Friday in May. As for today, let’s talk about some news and then Mike Williams’ new contract. 

The News 

Stefon Diggs (Extended by Buffalo at 4 years – $96,000,000) 

Stefon Diggs has signed a massive $96,000,000 contract with Buffalo. As most of you know, this extension will not kick in for Dynasty Owners until at least next year. Enjoy his sub $15,000,000 contract while it lasts. 

Brandin Cooks (Extended by Houston at 2 years – $39,600,000) 

The same thing can be said for Brandin Cooks. He signed a nearly $20,000,000 per year contract extension with the Texans. Cooks finished as WR20 last season. I am expecting a slightly better finish this year. As I said though, Cooks’ extension will not replace his current contract until 2023. 

Anthony Firkser (Signed by Atlanta at 1 year – $1,187,500) 

The lone notable free agent from the Titans last year, Firkser has signed with the Atlanta Falcons. This move provides tight end depth for a team that had no “fantasy reliable” backup tight end. Kyle Pitts will of course be the starting tight end and the one that scores the most fantasy points over the next several seasons. I don’t believe there is much meat left on the bone for Firkser. 

Derek Carr (Extended by Las Vegas at 3 years – $121,500,000) 

Derek Carr has signed his dream contract. Starting in 2023, he will make over $40,000,000 per year. As much as I’ve loved Carr over the past few years (on his $25,000,000 contract), he will not be a great value once he’s at $40,000,000. I still like Carr as a real-life quarterback, but his roster percentage in Dynasty Owner will greatly drop next year. 

Sammy Watkins (Signed by Green Bay at 1 year – $4,000,000) 

I’m not going to predict this to happen, but I think it’s within the realm of possibility that Watkins leads the Packers in wide receiver fantasy points for the 2022 season. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are still there, but the departure of Davante Adams opens up room for a Number one wide receiver. It might be hard to believe, but Sammy is still only 28 years old. I’m hopeful that a $4,000,000 salary can provide Dynasty Owners a decent value. 

A.J. Green (Signed by Arizona, Details unknown) 

A.J. Green will be returning to Arizona for another season. I don’t expect he’ll have a better finish than his 2021 season (WR42). I think he’s still a fine drop candidate. It appears that nearly 75% of you agree as his roster percentage is currently at 27.85%. 

New Contract Spotlight 

Mike Williams’ new contract is what’s on the agenda today. More specifically, it’s interesting how Williams is not the “number one” wide receiver on his team, but he is the sixth highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. I’ll get into that a little more later. First, let’s see what I said about Williams back in February… 

“Mike Williams is one of the biggest free agents this off-season. He has been perennially undervalued, and it is mainly because of his injury history. Here at Dynasty Owner, an almost 16 million dollar salary is not great value when it comes to a WR2 and an inconsistent one at that. I like Williams to return to the Chargers in 2022 as it won’t cost much more to sign him. I think his going rate will be around 18 million dollars per year.” 

Williams ended up signing a 3 year – $60,000,000 contract.  This means he will make $20,000,000 per year. As I said above, he will be the sixth highest paid wide receiver in Dynasty Owner this year. The contract ensured that the Chargers have the two highest paid wide receiver teammates of anyone in the NFL. The next closest are Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. 

So, what are we talking about when we think of Mike Williams? Well, last year he finished as WR12. I would think he will be in the mix for a WR1 (Top 12) again. Let’s take a look at some new contract comparisons to Williams’ new contract… 

Player Signing Age Status Team Salary per Year Season Finish 
Mike Williams 27 Signed LA Chargers $20,000,000 TBD 
Chris Godwin 26 Signed Tampa Bay $20,000,000 TBD 
Keenan Allen 27 Signed LA Chargers $20,025,000 WR14 (2020) 
Adam Thielen 28 Signed Minnesota $16,050,000 WR10 (2020) 

Mike Williams’ closest comparison is another player who just recently signed a $20,000,000 contract as well. That player is Chris Godwin. Godwin is the closest comparison for Williams not only because of their identical contracts. He also is close to the same age, and they finished as WR12 (Williams) and WR16 (Godwin). My expectation is a similar finish for both players. I’ll get back to you at the end of this season to see how the comp went. 

Oddly enough, Williams’ teammate, Keenan Allen, proves to be a pretty good comp from 2020. Allen had just signed a new contract worth $20,025,000 per year. He was 27 and went on to be WR14 that season. It is a little of a deceiving comparison as Allen was the clear cut Number one wide receiver for the Chargers that year, and Williams certainly won’t be this year. Regardless, I expect a similar performance. 

Adam Thielen is the final comp for the day. In 2020, he was WR10 on the back of a 14 touchdown season. That combined with a $16,050,000 salary makes him another fine player to examine when it comes to Williams. Once again though, Thielen was the Number one receiver for his team, while Williams will likely not be.  

I fully believe that the Chargers can support two Top 15 wide receivers as they did last year. Time will tell if that comes true. 

Conclusion 

I would be happy to own Williams in any of my Dynasty Owner leagues. As always, it comes down to how much you can save at other positions. I see him as a perfect second or third wide receiver if you are able to save on running backs. 

As always, thank you for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe. 

TheJerk 

Prospect Preview: Malik Willis 

Malik Willis

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL) 

Position: QB 

College: Liberty 

Height: 6’ 1” 

Weight: 225 lbs. 

Age: 22 

247 Rating: 0.8857 (3 Stars) 

The Rundown: 

From a 3-star high school athlete to a backup at Auburn, Malik Willis has been underrated and overdoubted for the majority of his time in the sport. He decided to find a coaching staff open to his skill set and transferred to the Liberty Flames, an FBS Independent school. Over the past two years he’s shown flashes of greatness both through the air and on the ground. But many scouts will struggle with the inconsistencies littered in the tape, so how high can we rank Willis?  

College Production: 

During his time at Auburn, Malik Willis was a backup who didn’t see many snaps. Once he transferred to Liberty in 2020, he got on the field and showed an impressive dynamic ability. In the past two years he’s averaged around 2,500 yards through the air with a 2.6:1 TD:INT ratio and staying above a 60% completion rate. In addition, he’s run for over 1,800 yards in the past two years with 27 rushing touchdowns. A truly dynamic playmaker, Willis has all the physical tools to be great. 

Strengths: 

  • Cannon of an Arm 
  • One of the better arms in the class, Willis has no problem getting the ball down the field. Whether it’s inside the pocket or along the sideline while on the run, he is able to launch the football down to any receiver who may be open or in a 1v1 situation. This is impressive considering his technique is not very consistent from throw to throw, and gives hope that his arm could be an even bigger asset at the next level if he is able to reel in the footwork and elbow dip. 
  • Top Rusher 
  • Over the past two years, statistically, Willis has been one of the top rushing quarterbacks in college history. His nearly .6 EPA per rush puts him well over players like Lamar Jackson ($23,016,000) and Kyler Murray ($8,914,504), both who have been drafted in the first round. Now against weaker competition and with some more question marks surrounding his arm, Willis might not be the prospect either one of those players were, but there is something special about Willis’ ability to make plays happen on the ground. And for that he has to be on your fantasy radar. 
  • Dynamic 
  • At the end of the day fantasy football is about swimming for upside, and there is perhaps no player in this draft that possess the upside that Willis possesses. While there is no guarantee that he reaches that ceiling, his ability to make plays, score points, and win you weeks in fantasy football make him a prospect worth paying up for and taking the risk. The “Konami Code” quarterback has become a cheat code in fantasy football and with the right coaching and direction, Willis has the tools to help redefine the position. 

Weaknesses: 

  • Inconsistent with the Easy Throws 
  • Willis misses too many easy throws around the line of scrimmage or near the first down marker to give me confidence in his ability to start right away. The touch he puts on the ball doesn’t have the finesse that we want to see, as often he’s either too strong or too soft with the easy throws. He’s sure to make some “wow” plays as you watch his tape, but too many easy completions find their way onto the ground. 
  • Hesitant on Tight Windows 
  • Willis has the arm to fit a ball into a tight window in the middle of the field, but too often we seem him look at the opening and hesitate. This means that when the second window opens up for that receiver he’s trying to fit it in there too late and that has led to some turnovers or drive-stalling incompletions. 
  • Poor Showing against Ole Miss 
  • Under the spotlight against a Top-25 team, Willis did not perform well. He ended up with 173 passing yards and 3 interceptions, without any passing touchdowns. He did end up with a rushing touchdown during that game, but those overall stats didn’t look great either with 27 rushes for only 71 yards. Now it’s unfair to place all the blame with Willis, the talent surrounding him was also heavily outmatched, but when a team is looking at spending a Top-10 pick on a player, these situations will be heavily scrutinized.  

Things to Watch: 

Willis had a great Senior Bowl, and while he had his ups and downs, his improvement over one week of practice turned a lot of heads. While playing at Liberty may not have provided him with the best coaching and instruction, to show that he is teachable and willing to improve could end up meaning the world to an NFL team that thinks they can mold him into an NFL starter. 

Projected Round/Contract:   

All the noise screams that Malik Willis will be a first rounder. There are enough teams that love the upside and the tools that he brings to the table. We’ve seen NFL teams for years feel (over)confident about their ability to teach and grow players that are “tools” or have the kind of traits that lead to high-risk/high-reward players. Willis fits that bill, and it seems he will be drafted within the first 10 or 15 picks come Draft Day. This would likely give him a contract averaging around $4.35-$5.6 million a year. 

Team Fits:   

There have been two teams that have been heavily connected to Malik Willis during the pre-draft process. The first being the Detroit Lions, who currently have Jared Goff ($33,500,000) but are obviously in a rebuild and looking towards the future. Behind Goff, Willis would be able to take a redshirt year, a la Trey Lance ($8,526,319), and work on his footwork and learning the offense that Dan Campbell wants to run. While the team isn’t chock full of talent, this situation truly isn’t bad, but will require a bit of patience if you’re looking to add him to your dynasty team. 

Another team that has been rather heavily linked to Willis is the Carolina Panthers. Head coach Matt Rhule doesn’t have a great track record with quarterbacks so far, but maybe they think that Willis could be the one to change that. There is a lot of smoke surrounding them and a possible reunion between Rhule and Kenny Pickett (who he recruited while at Temple), but Willis offers more upside at the sixth overall pick. Either way, a team will be looking to put a lot of draft capital and manpower into Malik Willis, making taking a swing on him worth your while. 

Make sure to follow Nate Christian over on Twitter at @NateNFL and check out all the work he is doing with the Dynasty Rewind (@DynastyRewind).