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Davante Adams
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
As we all expected, free agency news is starting to die down. The majority of the top free agents have been signed. I put out a Top 10 free agent list back in mid-March and there are only two players (Odell Beckham Jr. and Melvin Gordon) from that list who are still unsigned. I still look forward to finding where each of these players will land. I’m especially interested in Gordon for what it would mean to second year running back Javonte Williams. A Denver backfield without Gordon would be a Dynasty Owner’s dream. In the same way, I think the signing of OBJ could disrupt the wide receiver hierarchy for several teams. As we wait for news about both of these top free agents, let’s talk about some news and a new contract.
The News
Geno Smith (Signed by Seattle at 1 year – $3,500,000)
I struggled with putting Geno into this article as news. I decided to include him for two reasons. The first reason being that there is very little free agency news this week, so I had to reach in order to include anyone. The second reason is that I think Smith actually has a chance to start more than one game for the Seahawks this year. Let me explain…
Drew Lock is the current starting quarterback for Seattle. This is a dubious position for the Seahawks. He is in the final year of his rookie contract, and I don’t believe he will have a very long leash this season. While it’s not impossible that Seattle will take a quarterback with the 9th overall pick, I’m not fully convinced they will. This quarterback class has been touted as worse than the two previous years and likely not as good as the 2023 class will be. This class also seems to be more shallow than in previous years. For these reasons, I think it’s possible Seattle is content to ride with Lock for just one season.
That being said, it is also likely that Lock will underperform (especially in a stacked defensive division). My prediction is that Geno Smith will start at least two games for Seattle this year. I’d roster him for that chance and only a 3.5 million dollar salary.
New Contract Spotlight
Today we’re going to be talking about Davante Adams. He is one player who I did not anticipate talking about much in this off-season, at least after his franchise tag was signed. There was always a chance that Adams and the Packers would work out a long term deal before the deadline.
As it turns out, Adams did sign a massive long-term contract, but it was on the backside of a trade with the Raiders. He is currently 29 years old, and he will obviously become the Number one receiver for the Raiders. The biggest question most of us are asking ourselves is:
“Can he repeat as the WR2?”
My answer is that he can, but I would not predict it. I think the move from a more rounded team and quarterback to a less rounded one will produce less scoring opportunities for Adams. I find it hard to believe that he will average over ten and half targets per game, like he did in each of the past four seasons, with Derek Carr. Again, all of this is not to say that Adams won’t be dominant. He will be. I just hesitate to claim that he will be as dominant as the previous two seasons when he finished WR2 (2021) and WR1 (2020) in Dynasty Owner. Let’s look at how Adams’ contract compares to some recent wide receivers with similar production.
| Player | Signing Age | Status | Team | Salary per Year | Season Finish |
| Davante Adams | 29 | Signed | Las Vegas | $28,000,000 | TBD |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 27 | Signed | Arizona | $27,250,000 | WR4 (2020) |
| Michael Thomas | 26 | Signed | New Orleans | $19,250,000 | WR1 (2019) |
| Julio Jones | 30 | Signed | Atlanta | $22,000,000 | WR3 (2019) |
I want to preface these comparisons by saying that there is really no great comparison for Adams at his current salary and production. The comparisons lack because Adams is making an unprecedented amount of money. However, he was the WR2 last year. If he repeated that feat, these are the three players who would compare best to him over the last three years.
DeAndre Hopkins is the closest recent comparison at least in terms of salary. In his first big contract year with the Cardinals, he finished as WR4. That occurred way back in 2020.
Michael Thomas is a very good comp if you look at his 2019 finish combined with his salary at the time. He became a top paid wide receiver in 2019 with the Saints. He also was the WR1 in that season. Expect a similar finish from Adams as well as a similar DD/PT ($51,525 for Thomas in 2019).
Finally, we have Julio Jones’ 2019 season as well. In that year he received a $22,000,000 contract as he turned 30 years old. He finished two slots (WR3) behind Thomas in 2019.
Conclusion
Davante Adams will not be a great player to own from a value standpoint. I’m not sure anyone would argue otherwise. With that said, he will obviously be owned in every Dynasty Owner league, and he will likely finish as a Top 10 WR. He’s just one of those players who you have to work his high salary into your plan.
Thank you for reading and have a great weekend. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. I’ll see you next week for a new Contract Spotlight article. Take care everyone and be safe.
TheJerk