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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
First of all, Happy Patriots Day to my fellow Dynasty Owners! Many of you are wondering why I’m giving a shout out to the New England Patriots in the middle of April, but I’m not talking about those Patriots. Instead, I’m talking about the Patriots who fought the British Army at the Battles of Lexington and Concord in the Revolutionary War. It’s a wonderful day – kids get the day off from school since it’s a holiday in Massachusetts (and Maine, Wisconsin, Connecticut and North Dakota – not sure if kids get the day off in those states), the Boston Marathon takes place, and the Boston Red Sox have a home game at Fenway Park that starts at 11 AM. Just as important this year, it’s the day after Dynasty Owners should have gotten the salaries for the players on their Dynasty Owner rosters down to $145.74 million or less.
At this point of the off-season, I was hoping to be looking at some 2021 data to analyze how the teams in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring and League Champions put together their winning teams. Unfortunately, I had some computer issues during the week and haven’t downloaded the data that I need to answer those questions.
In its place, I’ve put together a mixed bag of questions that are either on my agenda to tackle in an upcoming article or another Dynasty Owner has suggested that I do research on and discuss in an upcoming article. Two questions are rookie-related and can’t really be answered until after the NFL Draft (April 28 – April 30) is over.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
For the purposes of this article, all data were current as of the morning of April 18th. All 2022 contract information is currently listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries) and has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/).
Which Chase for the Ring Champion Had the Best Season?
Nobody has asked me to tackle this issue, but it’s something that I think is interesting. The rules of Dynasty Owner have changed since the 2019 Beta season so you can’t just stack up the teams, see who had the best record or scored the most points and declare them the winner. It will actually take some analysis and digging into some comparable data.
At first look, here’s how they stack up overall:
| Year | Team | Overall Record | Number of Weeks | Total DOFP | DOFP per Week |
| 2019 | New York’s Strongest | 16-0 | 16 | 2417.3 | 151.1 |
| 2020 | Barbee Kilgore | 12-3 | 16 | 2810.0 | 175.6 |
| 2021 | SKOL Vikings | 15-1 | 17 | 2941.6 | 173.0 |
Both our 2020 and 2021 Champions had first round playoff byes, which is why they have one less game in their overall record compared to the number of weeks. In 2019, only four out of ten teams made the playoffs and therefore, the playoffs only took two weeks. In terms of record, New York’s Strongest was undefeated, while Barbee Kilgore averaged the most Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP) per week.
However, if we only look at the regular season, we see that things change slightly as SKOL Vikings just barely edge ahead in terms of DOFP per week:
| Year | Team | Regular Season | Number of Weeks | Regular Season DOFP | DOFP per Week |
| 2019 | New York’s Strongest | 14-0 | 14 | 2056.0 | 146.9 |
| 2020 | Barbee Kilgore | 10-3 | 13 | 2258.8 | 173.75 |
| 2021 | SKOL Vikings | 13-1 | 14 | 2440.1 | 174.3 |
In the playoffs, New York’s Strongest came out and scored a lot of points to win both of their playoff match-ups. While they didn’t have quite as many DOFP per week on average as Barbee Kilgore, there was no FLEX position in 2019 so New York’s Strongest had one less player accumulating points.
| Year | Team | Playoff Weeks | Playoffs DOFP | DOFP per Week |
| 2019 | New York’s Strongest | 2 | 361.3 | 180.65 |
| 2020 | Barbee Kilgore | 3 | 551.2 | 183.7 |
| 2021 | SKOL Vikings | 3 | 501.5 | 167.2 |
Based on these measures, any of the three Champions could have had the Best season. We’ll have to gather some additional data to make a final decision.
How Much Salary Cap Room Do I Need for Rookies?
I know that a lot of Dynasty Owners wanted to know the answer to this question before they had to get under the $145.74 million salary cap and the honest answer to that question right now is “It depends”. If you want a better answer now, then check out my 2021 article on this subject.
If you don’t want to read the whole article, then here are the highlights. The minimum amount in 2021 was $808,333, the cost of one undrafted rookie free agent, up to a maximum of $82.115 million for the one Dynasty Owner in 2021 who had 16 rookie draft picks. That amount was how much the top 16 picks in the 2021 drafts in the Dynasty Owner player pool received in contracts. The typical amount for Dynasty Owners with a “normal” amount of draft picks was a range from $5.7 million to $26.4 million.
For 2022, we have the rookie contract amounts in the Spotrac NFL 2022 Draft Tracker (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/), but we don’t know for sure who’s getting picked at what spot yet. Unless, of course, you know and entered the Dynasty Owner Draft Pick Challenge 2022 to win yourself that $1 million prize for a perfect first round (https://draftpickchallenge.com/login). If you’re like the rest of us, you’ll need to estimate this amount as best as you can now and here’s some helpful information for that estimate.
| Pick | 2021 Salary | 2022 Salary | Salary Increase | Percent Increase |
| 1st overall | $9,198,372 | $10,366,352 | $1,167,980 | 12.7% |
| 24th overall | $3,261,862 | $3,637,838 | $375,976 | 11.5% |
| 49th overall | $1,731,060 | $1,902,809 | $171,749 | 9.9% |
| 88th overall | $1,218,234 | $1,321,564 | $103,330 | 8.5% |
| 107th overall | $1,071,842 | $1,143,770 | $71,928 | 6.7% |
| 258th overall | $889,317 | $936,604 | $47,287 | 5.3% |
Obviously, the #1 pick in 2021 was Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC). The #24 overall pick was the first RB taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, Najee Harris (RB – PIT). The #49 pick was a middle of the second round selection, Rondale Moore (WR – ARI), while the #88 pick was an end of the third round pick who was tabbed as a huge sleeper in the off-season and didn’t pan out, Trey Sermon (RB – SF). The first skill position player taken on Day 3 of the draft was the second pick of the fourth round (#107 overall), Michael Carter (RB – NYJ). Finally, Dax Milne (WR – WAS) was the next to last player chosen overall (#258). It’s a sliding scale with the top pick in 2022 getting $1.168 million more than Lawrence did for an increase of 12.7%, while the next to last pick will receive only $47,287 more than Milne, an increase of just 5.3%.
For very rough 2022 rookie draft estimates, I’d go with $851,175 for one undrafted rookie free agent, or 5.3% more than it cost in 2021. For the typical amount, I think a 10% increase is safe, so we’re talking about $6.27 million to $29.04 million. I’m not going to attempt to touch the top end amount until I research who has the most draft picks and the Dynasty Owner salaries of the top rookies in the Dynasty Owner platform. It’s just too difficult to do right now.
Why the Huge Rookie Salary Cap Range?
The follow-up question is a sensible one and best answered by looking at two QBs anticipated to be drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft – Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett.
For Willis, I’ve seen a mock draft with him as the #2 selection to the Detroit Lions and I’ve also seen a mock draft with him as the #32 selection, also to the Detroit Lions. In a regular dynasty league, to paraphrase the Rock, “it’s doesn’t matter what pick Malik Willis was!” He’s playing for the Lions, likely for the next four years.
In Dynasty Owner, the difference is huge! It’s the difference between paying him almost $10 million per year and paying him just over $3.1 million.
| Pick | Total Contract | Dynasty Owner Annual Salary |
| 1.2 | 4 years, $39,603,429 | $9,900,857 |
| 1.32 | 4 years, $12,424,832 | $3,106,208 |
This is probably an extreme case, so let’s look at Kenny Pickett. He’s rumored as the Panthers’ choice with the 6th pick in the first round. However, he could slip down to the Steelers with the 20th pick and play his NFL home games in the same stadium (Heinz Field) that he played his college home games.
| Pick | Total Contract | Dynasty Owner Annual Salary |
| 1.6 | 4 years, $30,462,810 | $7,615,703 |
| 1.20 | 4 years, $15,313,075 | $3,828,269 |
Kenny Pickett staying in Pittsburgh at roughly half of the salary that he would get if he was selected by Carolina is a big difference for Dynasty Owners. At $3.8 million, Dynasty Owners could easily fit Pickett onto their team if they kept the low end of the salary range ($6.27 million) and he’s taken by the Steelers. However, they can’t afford to draft him if he’s drafted sixth and playing for the Panthers.
Don’t panic about this right now, you still have a month to make roster moves before rookie drafts start on May 27th. It may cost you some Dynasty Dollars to cut a player or two from your roster and get to the amount of salary cap room that you want for your team, but you don’t have to do it for a while.
How Can We Determine the Best Dynasty Owner Team So Far?
A few people want to know how to determine the “best” Dynasty Owner team. For some, they argue that winning the Chase for the Ring is great and a huge accomplishment, but it’s a one-year thing and the goal is to build a Dynasty. Success over a longer period of time, say five years, would be a better measuring stick. Dynasty Owners hasn’t been around for five years yet, just two with the current format, but we can look at a couple of things to start the conversation.
The first is to find out how many repeat winners we had in the same league in both 2020 and 2021. Some of the teams may have changed Owners between the years, but if your Dynasty Owner teams won the League Championship in both years, it’s a pretty good measure that you’re on your way to building a Dynasty.
Another way is more complicated and requires finding out how teams are stacking up against all of the other teams in their league or on Dynasty Owner over a set time period. Again, we can do that for a 5-year timeframe, but we can start looking at it with just two years of data and update it every year. The complete methodology hasn’t been determined, but it would likely involve figuring out how much better (or worse) a Dynasty Owner team is than the rest of the teams. Figuring out how many points a “normal” Dynasty Owner team scores on a weekly basis then comparing each individual team against that benchmark. It’s a work in progress, but hopefully something that can get done this off-season.
Let’s face it, it’s possible to have the best team in your league and not win the League Championship. There have been plenty of teams on the Top 25 of the Chase for the Ring Leaderboard at the end of the regular season who aren’t on the final Leaderboard because they didn’t win their League. In 2020, All Might (League #27455) was sitting in third place on the Chase Leaderboard after the regular season. However, they lost to Average Joe’s in their League finals and dropped off the final Leaderboard. All Might finished first in their League in both seasons, but haven’t won a Championship. That’s a great Dynasty Owner team and maybe one of the best without a Championship. They might not be as well; we’ll have to look and find out.
Is It Possible to “Buy” a Dynasty Owner Championship?
It is possible? Sure, anything is possible, but it’s not typical or frequently done in my estimation. To find out what Dynasty Owners think about this, we have asked whether people agree or disagree with the following statement in both post-season surveys.
It’s possible to buy your way to a Dynasty Owner title by purchasing Dynasty Dollars and then bidding higher than everyone else for available Free Agents
In the 2020 survey, a majority (56%) agreed with this statement, while one-quarter (26%) disagreed. The numbers moved in 2021 with only half (49%) agreeing with the statement and one-third (34%) disagreeing. I believe that as Dynasty Owner moves on and people gain experience with the platform, they will have more years and leagues in which the League Champion didn’t spend the most Dynasty Dollars and still won. A percentage will always think it’s possible to buy a Championship, but I predict that percentage will continue to decline.
My opinion that I don’t believe you can “buy” a Championship is based on my personal experience. I think drafting is more important. In my long-time redraft league that has been in existence for 21 years now, the team that has spent the most money in free agency has won the League Championship exactly once (2018). The team who has outspent the rest of the teams in the league in transaction fees ($5 per waiver claim) in 13 out of 19 years (no transaction data for the first two years) has won exactly zero titles. That team chases the hot free agent after every week and put him in their lineup to mixed results. It’s not a sustainable way to win.
Dynasty Owner is different, much different than this league, but I think the principles of smart drafting and not chasing after the hot free agent every week still stands. The benefit of good drafting might flatten out in a dynasty league versus a redraft league, but with rookie drafts every year, the teams that draft well will still have an advantage. We’ll see if it’s true after I do all of the research, but I’m pretty confident that it will.
Similar questions that has been asked of me are about how much Dynasty Owners are spending out of their own pockets to maintain a competitive team and how much people are spending on a rebuild team. Those are great questions and I hope to be able to investigate further and present some thoughts about that at a later time.
Conclusion
It looks like I’ve got a pretty full bag of things to work on during the remainder of the Dynasty Owner off-season. Answering these questions plus looking at how 2021 League Champions drafted and put together their teams, just as I did last off-season, will also be on my off-season agenda. However, if you have a question about Dynasty Owner that you’d like me to look at, don’t hesitate to send me a tweet (@SteveVT33) and I’ll let you know if I can do it.
The weekly Dynasty Owner livestream continues with Tim Peffer and me on Wednesday at 4 PM (Eastern). We started looking at NFC teams (East and North) moves in free agency and those teams’ needs moving forward. We will finish with the NFC South and West this week and also looking at the incoming group of NFL rookies with a focus on RBs this week. Set the timer on YouTube so you don’t miss it live, or make sure to watch it afterwards. Either way, don’t forget to smash the Like button. You can also listen to it starting Wednesday evenings wherever you get your podcasts.
Jay Pounds and I are also doing a weekly Dynasty Owner podcast. If you haven’t checked out the first two of them, go do it now to hear us talk about Dynasty Owner and what’s been happening in our 2022 off-season. New podcasts are scheduled to drop on Friday mornings so download them and listen on your way to work, or while you’re there.
Finally, please read all of the off-season articles from our Dynasty Owner team. On Mondays, I write about players, salaries and contracts to help new and returning Dynasty Owners navigate how to play our unique game. Jay Pounds is writing about everything on rebuilding your Dynasty Owner roster and his articles appear on Tuesday. Nate Christian is back for 2022 and is doing prospect previews to get Dynasty Owners ready for rookie drafts every Thursday. Nate will have an additional preview this Tuesday as Jay has the week off. Finally, Friday is Free Agent Friday with Matt Morrison – The Jerk and his current New Contract Spotlight series.
Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner