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Melvin Gordon

New Contract Spotlight 

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Melvin Gordon 

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk

I bring an article to you today with somewhat odd timing. The timing is strange because the 2022 NFL Draft has started, but I wrote this article on Thursday afternoon. This means that by the time you read this, you will know the outcome of the 1st Round while I (currently typing this) don’t. For that reason, I am going to keep chugging along with my New Contract Spotlight. 

But…maybe, just maybe I will include a mini Spotlight on one of the rookies who got drafted on Thursday night. Stick around until the end of this article, and you might find some bonus content. As for now, let’s talk about some fresh free agent news and Melvin Gordon. 

The News & New Contract Spotlight 

There is a single person to talk about today in the news, and it happens to be the player who I am spotlighting today. That player is Melvin Gordon. To be honest, this will be a two player breakdown. I cannot talk about Gordon without also mentioning his teammate Javonte Williams. Let’s talk about Melvin first. 

Melvin Gordon 

Gordon was re-signed by the Denver Broncos on April 27th. I actually received this news while I was traveling and about to board a flight home. I couldn’t write a full breakdown at that time, but here are some words that I wrote in my “Notes” app to capture my initial thoughts. 

Split Backfield Again? 

Confusion 

Who Scores More? 

Upsetting 

Both Top 20 RBs Again In 2022? 

Now, I don’t mean to be fully negative here, but there is no way that this move doesn’t hurt one of these player’s fantasy outlook at least for the next season. I was greatly looking forward to seeing Williams become the bell cow back for a super talented offensive team. That clearly won’t happen, but I also can’t blame Denver for this move, and here is why… 

They signed Melvin Gordon as an absolute steal. The deal is 1 year – $2,500,000. This is an insane value for a running back who just put up over 1,000 total yards in back to back seasons.  It’s also an insane value when you consider that Gordon was playing on an $8,000,000 contract last year. And then the realization hit me… 

I’m not disappointed in this news at all (at least from Melvin’s side). Dynasty Owners are getting a Top 20 running back on a team that is better than last year (Russell Wilson trade), and his contract is less than a third of what it was in the previous two seasons. What more could we ask for? Yes, I would have preferred if Gordon went to a new team and became their three down back, but that was likely always just a pipe dream. The odds that a team, other than the Texans, would make a newly signed, 29-year old running back their workhorse back is unlikely at best. This really is fantastic news for everyone who continued to hold Gordon throughout free agency. 

Javonte Williams 

On the other hand, though…we have Javonte Williams. I have yet to hear a reason why this should be considered as a positive move for Williams’ fantasy value in the short term. That is likely because there isn’t a good reason. Yes, Gordon taking some wear and tear off of Javonte will likely extend his career and help his efficiency. However, as we know at Dynasty Owner, efficiency only helps a player so much.  We also need that sweet spot of efficiency and volume. 

Williams may get both efficiency and volume this year.  Hell, he may get more of both when you compare it to last year. What I’m positive about though is that he will not get as much volume compared to if Gordon had not re-signed. Expect Williams and Gordon to both be in the RB20 – RB25 range at the end of the season. Also, it’s worth mentioning the injury possibility. We never project or hope for injuries at Dynasty Owner, but they are an unfortunate reality of this game. If one of these two running backs goes down for any length of time, the other would immediately have league winning value. 

I think that last sentence is kind of my point with Williams now. 

Without Gordon, he would have been a potential league winner. With him, I see his ceiling as RB15. It’s disappointing, but the Broncos are a better team because of it. 

Comparisons 

Player Signing Age Status Team Salary per Year Season Finish 
Melvin Gordon 29 Signed Denver $2,500,000 TBD 
Mike Davis 27 Signed Carolina* $3,000,000 RB15 (2020) 
J.D. McKissic 26 Signed Washington $1,635,000 RB18 (2020) 

* Mike Davis signed a two-year, $6 million contract with Chicago in March 2019, but waived in November and Carolina picked up him and his contract. 

There weren’t many great comps for Melvin at this price, and that is the main point I want to sum up with this section. Yes, Mike Davis and J.D. McKissic finished their 2020 seasons close to the type of value that I expect Gordon to have this year.  What is different is the way that they did it. Davis had a superb season for Carolina solely due to the loss of Christian McCaffrey for the majority of the season. J.D. McKissic wasn’t the number one running back on the 2020 team, yet he led the NFL in running back targets. All of this is to say that I project Gordon to be in a better spot than both of these compared running backs. While I don’t necessarily predict that he will finish higher than RB15 (or even RB18 this season), I do think he will be a less fluky player, and he will have a consistent workload throughout the season. 

Conclusion 

Melvin Gordon will be a very efficient and valuable running back this season. You can see by my lack of comps that it is rare for an aging running back to get a sub $3,000,000 contract despite having over 1,000 yards in each of the previous two seasons. I would send out offers to the Gordon owner in your league, and see if you can snag him for cheap. 

Bonus Spotlight 

Because I love the NFL so much, I’m going to put in a small bonus spotlight on Jameson Williams. As we now know, he was drafted by the Detroit Lions as the 12th overall pick. He will take some extra time to get ready for this NFL season, but I truly believe that he will be the best wide receiver from this 2022 class. Here are the best comps I have for Williams… 

Player College Team Height Weight Draft Spot Salary Fantasy Finish 
Jameson Williams Alabama DET 73.5″ 179 12th $4,365,447 TBD 
DeVonta Smith Alabama PHI 73″ 170 10th $5,035,348 31 (2021) 
CeeDee Lamb Oklahoma DAL 74″ 191 17th $3,502,503 21 (2020) 
Marquise Brown Oklahoma BAL 69″ 166 25th $2,946,835 48 (2019) 

Based on this chart, it would be hard to expect Williams to exceed a WR21 ranking for the 2022 season. Compound this with the idea that he will likely miss training camps and pre-season games (at a minimum). At the worst, he will miss three to six weeks of the season with his ACL injury. Drafting Williams in your Dynasty Owner rookie draft would be a wise decision, but you have to realize that he will likely not make a big impact until next year. 

These comps make sense based on the draft position, salary, and size as you can see from the chart. I’m not going to break down each player now, but suffice it to say that, in my opinion, Williams is in good company at least for the next five years. It’s worth mentioning that I had included Marquise Brown in this comparison prior to his trade to the Arizona Cardinals which still blows my mind. 

Thank you for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. I’ll see you next week for a new Contract Spotlight article. Take care everyone and be safe. 

TheJerk 

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