By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
The majority of you have wrapped up your rookie drafts as you are reading this. At a minimum, you are getting close to the end of the draft. All except two of my rookie drafts have concluded. Now, we seemingly get a lull in the off-season. Yes, there is still work to be done with trades and free agent acquisitions, but there isn’t much on the horizon for at least several weeks.
- Remember to stay sharp.
- Continue to check what players have been dropped daily.
- Make sure to respond to or counter every trade proposal you receive.
- Even put together some of your own trades.
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again, “Owning a Dynasty Owner team is a year-long endeavor.” There is a correlation between activity and success. Keep grinding.
As was the case with the last article, this article has very little important news. I will touch on some of the real life football news, however.
Gore has retired from the NFL. This news is a little sentimental to me. One of my first serious years in fantasy football was Gore’s rookie season (2005). It’s weird when a player has been with you for your entire fantasy career, and then they are gone. This is the same for Ben Roethlisberger. His rookie season was the first year that I ever owned a fantasy team. One of the best “iron man” in the game will leave this game.
Fitzpatrick has also retired from the NFL. We welcome one of the smartest quarterbacks in my lifetime into retirement.
That’s really the only news I have for today. Don’t worry, it’s common for slow news weeks in the middle of the off-season.
Top 5 Quarterback Rankings
Last year around this time I did a sneak peek of some of my rankings. Over the next four weeks I will present the Top 5 from each major position. These rankings are subject to change, and they will likely do so many times between now and the start of the regular season.
|Player||Team||Age||Salary||Years Left on Contract|
I don’t think there should be too many surprises for you here. Keep in mind that these rankings reflect many years out. They take age, production and salary into account.
Justin Herbert starts our list off. If I wanted to draft the first quarterback in a Dynasty Owner start-up draft, Herbert would be my choice. His combination of top five production mixed with his cheap salary for a quarterback ($6,644,688) makes him a rock solid candidate for a league winner this year. Oh yeah…and consider the fact he is only 24 years old. In only two years, Herbert has risen to the top spot in my quarterback rankings. It seems that most of you agree with me as his current ADP is 3.0 (the first quarterback taken off the board).
Jalen Hurts comes in at Number two. To be honest, he would probably rank Number one if I was guaranteed that he will remain the Eagles starter for the next five years. His salary is so low that he sits at less than a quarter of Herbert’s salary. Hurts has the upside to be a top three quarterback production wise.
Joe Burrow is Number three. He had a fantastic 2021 season where he finished as QB8. I think the image burned into most of our minds is how he performed in Weeks 16 and 17. In those two weeks, he totaled more than 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined (106.6 to be exact), and he easily guided most of his Dynasty Owners to a championship. I was playing for a League Championship against the Burrow / Ja’Marr Chase stack in Week 17 and got decimated.
Josh Allen is our only “high salary” quarterback to make it on to this list. Here is my rationale…At some point, production overcomes salary. Even if Allen will never win any salary efficiency metrics around here, he should be one of the first five quarterbacks drafted in each start-up draft. The statistical advantage that he will give you over your opponent’s quarterback each week is more valuable than trying to save on his $43,000,000 salary. Draft Allen at the back of your first round and save money elsewhere.
Finally, we have Kyler Murray. I debated whether to put Murray at five or Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000). In the end, I went with the cheaper salary (even if it is for only one more year).
New Contract Spotlight
There are few players that have been tougher to rank or evaluate this year than Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS). Here are some quick hitting facts and opinions that have helped me come to my final conclusion about Valdes-Scantling.
- He underperformed in Green Bay even when the top receiving option was up for grabs.
- He was a boom or bust type player with two games in 2021 of at least 4 receptions, 90 receiving yards and a TD.
- He has changed teams and will be paired with a top five quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.
- The Number one and/or two wide receiver option in Kansas City is available for the taking this year.
- He joins a crowded receiving room in KC with Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Skyy Moore.
So, what else do we know about MVS? Well, he signed a 3 year – $30,000,000 contract this off-season. I had him slotted for around $6,000,000 a year so I think he overachieved a little. What this also means is that Dynasty Owners had/have a tough decision to make. Do you hold onto MVS, even with a $10,000,000 price tag and hope that he shows above average upside early in the year or do you drop him?
The majority of Dynasty Owners have decided to take a chance and hold him as he is currently rostered in 77.8 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues. I agree with that decision. I have two leagues in which I roster MVS, and I have managed to avoid dropping or trading him despite the fact that I am pushed up against the cap. I was able to drop ancillary pieces in order to draft the rookies I wanted while still holding him.
I think that it is the right decision at the moment because the potential upside for a lightning quick receiver in Patrick Mahomes’ offense is massive. The leash on MVS is likely pretty short though. I will give him at least four to six games to show some sort of production. If I don’t see it, he will likely be an Amnesty Provision candidate.
The bottom line is that MVS is a high risk/high reward type player. It’s unlikely he will ever be a 100 reception receiver. He may not even ever get close to 80. He is not a 1:1 replacement for Tyreek Hill. He is an average receiver with above average speed.
Thank you for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.