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Sophomore Gambles 

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By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL) 

Everyone is itching for the 2022 NFL season to start. The NFL Draft has concluded, and Organized Team Activities (OTAs) are underway. Within the next week or two, most teams are going to be in training camp mode and depth charts will start coming together. All the hype right now surrounds the “new” toys, the unknown rookies. Full of potential, and hardly dangerous to bust, everyone is clamoring to get their hands on the next big thing, before it’s even a thing. While it’s true, some of these players will never be cheaper than they are right now, there is always a fair share of misses throughout the rookie class. We’ve never seen these players on an NFL field before, will the pressure be too much to handle?  

What if we took a chance on players who have already been on the NFL field, but maybe didn’t live up to the original hype? Some analysts may call these players “post-hype sleepers”, and it’s fitting. We get so excited about the next Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701) or the next Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287) that we forget about the next Michael Pittman Jr. ($2,153,212) or Damien Harris ($907,784). Players who don’t explode their rookie year, but are still set up for success. It used to be common to give rookies three years to get comfortable in the NFL, now we’re throwing these players to the side if they don’t breakout within their first six games. Let’s try to take advantage of this new thought process and take a chance on some of the following sophomore players. 

Kenneth Gainwell ($953,882) 

A true “post-hype sleeper”, Gainwell was being looked at as one of the top running backs in last year’s draft class by many, but a slide during the NFL Draft to the Philadelphia Eagles in the 5th round cooled many excited dynasty players. Now a year later he sits as the RB2 on the team and Miles Sanders ($1,337,544) is in a contract year. Gainwell is a similar player to Nyheim Hines ($6,200,000) with his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and showed it with 33 catches and 6 total touchdowns in limited snaps last year. The Eagles are one of the heaviest running teams in the league and are obviously looking for a committee approach from their backfield. Gainwell may never be an RB1 for your team, but he should provide many weeks as an impressive FLEX play. Gainwell will likely be available for a late 2nd round rookie draft pick in most leagues. 

Khalil Herbert ($902,677) 

Not an impressive athlete, didn’t have great college production, 6th round draft capital, is Herbert worth adding to your team? He’s likely pretty cheap and seems to be carving out a role for himself, not just as David Montgomery’s ($1,003,845) backup, but also as a part of the offense. Bears’ beat reporters are saying Herbert will still be able to see volume with a healthy Montgomery and may even be in the running to be the starter next year if Montgomery isn’t re-signed. Herbert looked good as the RB1 for the Bears last year and if he gets worked into the offense this year, he could be worth keeping on your Bench. Especially for what essentially could be a throw-in piece in any trade. Keep an eye on Herbert this year. 

Terrace Marshall Jr. ($1,432,372) 

Starting off with a pretty big gamble. Marshall looks more Denzel Mims ($1,358,425) than DJ Chark ($10,000,000), but with the profile he had coming into the league and his current price he is more than worth a gamble. He’s a size-speed player at 6’ 2”, 205 lbs., and a 4.45 40-yard dash, with the ability to play both inside and outside. He struggled to get on the field last year during the regular season, after an impressive pre-season, but the coaching staff has said he struggled with illness throughout the beginning of the season. D.J. Moore ($20,628,000) and Robby Anderson ($14,750,000) are still ahead of him, but he should be able to take hold of the WR3 spot in the Panthers offense. Over half of his routes last year came from the slot, making him a plus matchup against smaller corners and slower safeties. Anderson also just restructured his contract after a mostly inefficient year and will likely no longer be on the team after this season. Marshall can likely be acquired with a 2022 3rd round rookie draft pick from Dynasty Owners who are ready to cut bait. 

Kadarius Toney ($3,429,877) 

Toney is the most exciting receiver on the Giants at the moment and in a room full of unknown, he has the best shot to take over the WR1 role for Daniel Jones ($6,416,014). There are some injury concerns here, but there are the same concerns for every other receiver on that depth chart. Toney had incredible efficiency when on the field with 2.13 yards per route run (17th in the league), which is a great number especially for Toney’s rookie year and the injuries he was dealing with. A combination of volume (28.9% of targets, 7th in the league, when he ran a route) as well as his ability after the catch, make him a player worth taking a chance on. You should still be able to acquire Toney for a 2022 2nd round rookie draft pick. 

Nico Collins ($1,217,879) 

Another size-speed freak, Collins (6’ 4”, 215 lbs.) ran a 4.5 flat putting him in the 90th percentile for speed score (a formula that tries to level the playing field between different sized receivers). While Davis Mills ($1,304,383) may not be the best quarterback in the league, he was impressive last year and certainly should be able to provide the Texans offense solid opportunities in the passing game. While the Texans did add John Metchie ($2,017,543) in the second round, he is coming off a torn ACL and Collins should have the opportunity to make the WR2 position his during training camp. You can’t teach size and you can’t teach speed. Collins has both and has the opportunity to be a worthwhile Bench piece for your roster. He should be available for an early 3rd round rookie draft pick in most of your Dynasty Owner leagues. 

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