Buying a “Win Now” Team

Tom Brady Win Now
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello football fans, and hello Dynasty Owners. I welcome you to another Free Agent Friday. In next week’s article, I will discuss a player who is receiving very little off-season buzz. That player is Cordarrelle Patterson. There are several reasons why I think he is not getting the “air time” that he deserves, and I will talk about each and every one of those reasons next Friday. Hopefully this will give you piece of mind if you currently roster him or are planning on drafting him in an upcoming startup draft. But before I jump ahead to next week, I have a confession to make.

I bought another Dynasty Owner team since we talked last Friday.

I couldn’t help myself. I am now up to nine total teams. My reason for sharing this story is not to brag about how many chances I have to win. Instead, I want to walk you through my buying process. As I stated last week, I have a very strict process that I use to determine if a team is worth buying. Today, I’m going to give you the condensed version. Let me show you my entire roster, and show you what pushed this team over the edge for me…

PlayerTeamPositionSalary
Tom BradyTBQB$15,000,000
Drew LockSEAQB$1,752,704
Kenny PickettPITQB$3,516,976
Najee HarrisPITRB$3,261,862
Antonio GibsonWASRB$1,233,159
Cordarrelle PattersonATLRB$5,250,000
Jamaal WilliamsDETRB$3,000,000
Joe MixonCINRB$12,000,000
Ke’Shawn VaughnTBRB$1,188,999
Raheem MostertMIARB$2,125,000
Dameon PierceHOURB$1,118,858
Anthony SchwartzCLEWR$1,215,756
Bryan EdwardsATLWR$1,173,113
Davante AdamsLVWR$28,000,000
Hunter RenfrowLVWR$708,987
Marquise BrownARIWR$2,946,835
Mike EvansTBWR$16,500,000
Rondale MooreARIWR$1,731,060
Tyler LockettSEAWR$17,250,000
Brevin JordanHOUTE$958,056
Darren WallerLVTE$7,450,000
Rob GronkowskiFATE$8,000,000
Jake FergusonDALTE$1,091,221
Tyler HigbeeLARTE$7,250,000

I am purposefully omitting kickers from this list as I don’t really mention kickers much anyway.

I know this is a lot to sort through, and it’s cumbersome, but here is my line of thinking. When it comes to the quarterback position, I look for at least two above average starters. You can see that I only have one at the moment. When I first looked at this team, I knew QB would be my biggest weakness if I was going to buy it.

Next we come to the running backs. With the RB position, I need at least three who I could consider starters (at least RB20). I think it’s a safe assumption that I have that. There is Najee, Mixon and Gibson. All three have possible outcomes of Top 10 running backs, and I think their floor is around RB20. However, it’s not enough to just have three studs. I need at least a little depth as well. Looking through the rest of my running backs, I find the depth I need. I have Patterson, Mostert and Dameon Pierce. All three of these players will be serviceable throughout the year, and they are all textbook Bench running backs.

While I like these wide receivers, I am a little worried about their depth. Once again, I’m looking for at least three stud wide receivers (at least WR20). I think we’ve found three top 20 wide receivers. Adams, Evans and Brown should give me an advantage over most of my opponents at wide receiver. I also have Lockett, Rondale Moore, and Renfrow as solid Bench receivers.

Finally, the tight end room. Darren Waller should be a Top 5 TE on the season, and I’m not too concerned about the addition of Adams. I expect Waller to receive at least 100 targets, 80 receptions and 1,000 yards in 2022. I have Tyler Higbee as my Bench tight end which is just fine with me. He may be a little overpriced for a backup, but I can manage that cap. I also plan on dropping Gronk as soon as I take over this team.

So, I’ve looked through the meat of the team, and I realize that this could be a viable addition to my portfolio. In addition to the players, I look at the future draft picks and salary cap. I am currently up against the cap with this team, and I have all my original draft picks for the next six years (This league very recently did a startup draft).

I picked this team up in the Orphan Store for $27, and I still had to pay the TeamStake fee of $100. So here are the strengths and weaknesses of my team.

Strengths

  • A Top 5 quarterback.
  • Solid running back core.  I should have an advantage over most of my opponents running backs.
  • Solid wide receiver core.
  • Top 5 tight end.

Weaknesses

  • No startable second quarterback.
  • Wide receiver position is not as deep as I would like.
  • Up against the cap.
  • My team seems to be in more of a “win now” strategy as I have few young players.
  • Possibly a little too much team stacking. I have an unusually large number of teammates (Brady/Evans, Adams/Renfrow/Waller, Brown/Moore, Pickett/Harris).

I have absolutely no problem spending this much money on an Orphan Team especially when it is more of a “win now” team. I’ve said it before, and I will repeat this every season.

“It’s so rare for us to get a real chance at winning a dynasty league. We have all this preparation, build up and research and some of us will go without winning for years at a time. When you have a team that has an above average chance of making the playoffs, you should be concentrating on doing just that…Make the playoffs and see where they take you. I’m not advocating to leverage your entire future for this one year, but you should be aggressive and make a push for the championship.”

I will give you a real life example of this. Not long (30 minutes) after I purchased this team, I started trade conversations with another Owner in the league. I recognized that I needed more quarterback depth, so I approached the Dynasty Owner with Jalen Hurts and Derek Carr on their roster. I approached this owner in particular because I actually wanted Carr. I was planning on betting heavy on the Vegas offense this year. My plan was to drop Gronk and Lockett to make cap space for Carr. I figured I wouldn’t have to spend much more than a 1st round draft pick for him.

Well, that’s not how the events shook out. It turns out that this Dynasty Owner was willing to trade Hurts as well. I made an aggressive first offer of a 2023 1st and a 2024 1st for Hurts. This owner recognized that I was not messing around, and he countered with a 2023 1st round draft pick, a 2024 1st round draft pick and Dameon Pierce for Hurts and Ronald Jones. I took the trade, dropped Gronk to free up salary cap space, and now I found my missing quarterback.

Did I give away two potentially stud first round picks? Yes, I did. Did I give up too much? Some might say yes. But in return I ensured that my team is much more well-rounded, and I didn’t have to drop Lockett for the cap space either. It’s very safe to say that I am all in on this year, and I am more than okay with that.

This is just one example of how you can turn an abandoned team into your own. I already feel like this is my team, just from a single trade that I pulled off.

As I said in the beginning of this article, I will put the Spotlight on Cordarrelle Patterson next week. Thanks for reading. If there is any player who you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Reranking the 2021 Draft Class

reranking

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

A Look Back

Last year’s rookie class was very impressive coming in, especially at the wide receiver position, and after seeing the immediate impact that Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701) and Tee Higgins ($2,171,696) made in the NFL the year before, many were excited about the next class. The 2021 draft class made an immediate impact in both fantasy and the NFL as players from every position got opportunities early and often. This rookie class ended up providing us with two top-24 Dynasty Owner quarterbacks (Mac Jones at QB18 and Trevor Lawrence at QB24), the RB3 (Najee Harris), four wideouts who finished WR30 or better (Ja’Marr Chase at WR5, Jaylen Waddle at WR13, Amon-Ra St. Brown at WR21 and DeVonta Smith at WR30), and two Top-15 tight ends (Kyle Pitts at TE6 and Pat Freiermuth at TE13). While those players are looking to make more strides in 2022, we have other players who began to breakout later in the season and look to be playmakers for their teams this season. Let’s redraft the 2021 NFL Draft class and look at not only how these sophomores performed last year, but also project how their current situation looks moving forward.

  1. Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910)

Right up there with Justin Jefferson as the top young wide receivers in Dynasty Owner, Chase came in last year and showed an incredible connection with quarterback Joe Burrow ($9,047,534). He’s one of the most expensive players on this list, but as the WR5 overall last year, I don’t think there is any cause for concern. Chase is one of the biggest playmakers in the NFL already and any team that has him is lucky, as he’s nearly un-acquirable in most formats. He’s a cornerstone piece of your Dynasty Owner team and is the easy 1.01 in this redraft.

2.Najee Harris ($3,261,862)

Harris’ volume last year was stunning, as he touched the ball 381 times over the course of the season. Over 300 rushing attempts (307), close to 75 receptions (74) and nearly 100 targets (94), the Steelers’ offense ran through Harris and his ability to handle the workload. With Big Ben gone, Harris’ workload will likely change. We can expect less dump-offs, as no matter who starts at quarterback, they’ll have a stronger arm than Roethlisberger last year. We should also expect a slight reduction in rushes as the coaches have mentioned getting Harris off the field more often to keep him fresh. Nonetheless, Harris is still one of your best bets in Dynasty Owner as the workhorse role continues to disappear around the league.

3. Javonte Williams ($2,216,438)

A back who looks to be able to do it all, run in-between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield, the hype was building for Williams to have his true breakout this coming season. A Melvin Gordon ($2,500,000) signing later, and people are worried about Williams’ workload. Gordon being there last year didn’t stop Williams from finishing as the RB18 in Dynasty Owner and I would expect him to get even more run this year as Gordon is a year older. One of the top running backs for the long-term, Williams is still only 22 years old.

4. Kyle Pitts ($8,227,624)

If not for a string of bad luck in the touchdown department, Pitts would have been a Top 5 tight end last year. Either way, he’s one of the top two or three options at the position and should continue to get better and score points for your Dynasty Owner team. With the departure of Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) and the arrival of Marcus Mariota ($9,375,000), I don’t expect the passing production to improve greatly, but Pitts will still be the top target of the offense and could post similar numbers to last year. The positional advantage that Pitts gives you for the next decade is worth the fourth overall pick in this redraft.

5. Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498)

Across from Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000), Waddle will be seeing CB2 matchups and should have no problem taking advantage. After posting 104 receptions last year on 140 targets, Waddle showed that he is a versatile weapon who can be used up and down the field. With new coach Mike McDaniel entering the building from the 49ers, the question has already been asked if Waddle can repeat the success McDaniel had last year with Deebo Samuel ($1,811,869). Is Waddle the guy to take on that role? His chances are as high as anyone else and I’d expect to see him see 120+ touches again, even with Hill’s arrival.

6. Devonta Smith ($5,035,348)

Another sophomore wideout who saw legitimate competition added this off-season, Smith shouldn’t worry too much about the arrival of A.J. Brown ($1,413,092). Brown should take the CB1 in most situations and open up even more opportunities for Smith to get the ball on underneath routes and along the chains. It does limit Smith’s ceiling as Brown is going to get his share of the ball, but the two players complement each other well and should help each other be more efficient when targeted. The biggest question mark here is truly the continued development of Jalen Hurts ($1,506,293) as a quarterback.

7. Elijah Moore ($2,235,107)

It does seem like a trend, another sophomore wideout with an addition to the wide receiver room. Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502) adds to a somewhat crowded Jets’ depth chart as the two young wideouts still have to contend with Corey Davis ($12,500,000), when healthy, but all three players should see plenty of snaps as the bona fide starters in three receiver sets. Moore ended last season as one of the hottest receivers in the game and his ability to create yards after the catch should give him a high floor on a week-to-week basis. Garrett Wilson may be the WR1 of the future for the Jets, but Moore will never fall too far behind.

8. Travis Etienne ($3,224,526)

Quite honestly, Etienne should be higher up on this list but the injury, and the eventual return of James Robinson ($763,333) brings up too many question marks to place him any higher. One of my favorite running backs coming out of college in 2021, Etienne was one of the best playmakers in the 2021 draft class and can be used in a variety of ways. With Urban Meyer long gone from Duval, Doug Pederson steps in with a bit more creativity and NFL experience. Pederson is known for his use of a committee in the backfield, and I’d expect that to continue in Jacksonville, but Etienne is capable of high efficiency on every touch and should still produce enough to be a RB2/RB3 week-in and week-out.

9. Trey Lance ($8,526,319)

The quarterback with the highest fantasy upside, this is a risky pick, but the ceiling is so high for Lance that we have to take the chance here. Kyle Shanahan has made it clear that Lance if the QB1 for this year and beyond, so now is the time to buy-in. If Lance is able to run the 49ers’ offense then he’ll be looked at as a Top-8 quarterback in Dynasty Owner by the end of the season. His rushing ability, combined with his big arm, provide too many options for scoring for Dynasty Owners to ignore. Especially when the 49ers have surrounded him with talent. The time to swing for the fences is now.

10. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($1,066,313)

A continuation of our trend with wide receivers, St. Brown watched his team draft Jameson Williams ($4,365,448) in the first round this off-season. I believe that Williams is chock full of talent and is the future of this receiving corps, but he is coming off a late season ACL tear and shouldn’t be returning to the field anytime soon. This keeps St. Brown as the Number 1 option for the Lions despite the addition of DJ Chark ($10,000,000). St. Brown’s production should sustain through the first half of the NFL season. Once Williams get on the field though, how far of a step back will St. Brown take?

11. Mac Jones ($3,896,588)

I have already selected the riskiest quarterback in this redraft, so now I’ll move to the safest. Jones was a solid option last year for the Patriots and ended up as the QB18 on the year despite a game where he only passed the ball three times. The Patriots attempted to boost their wide receiver room a bit this year with second rounder Tyquan Thornton ($1,763,464) and a trade for DeVante Parker ($7,625,000), who should both fit nicely with reception hog Jakobi Meyers ($3,986,000). Jones is a safe option and looks to be one of the best bets as a solid QB2 option for the foreseeable future.

12.Kadarius Toney ($3,429,877)

When Toney was on the field, good things happened. I talked about him in my Sophomore Gambles article, his success vs man coverage and ability to make defenders miss in the open field. The Giants were another team that added a wideout in the draft with second rounder Wan’Dale Robinson ($2,046,292), but at this point Toney could likely be considered the best receiver on the team. As long as Toney can stay healthy and get on the field, he should score Dynasty Owner fantasy points for your team. A little risky with the competition at his position and the lack of consistent health, but Toney has tremendous upside and is worth a shot with our last pick.

Rebuilding An Orphan Team

Rebuilding an Orphan

League #71013 Team- Riders of Roquan

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, welcome back to another week with your local rebuilder, Jay Pounds. As I mentioned last week, this is orphan team season, and I will be digging into another orphan roster this week for all of you to look over. Before we jump into things, as promised it’s also NFL countdown time. We officially have 44 days until kickoff, and I cannot wait folks. Let me know on Twitter how excited you are for football to start.

Two things I would like to cover quickly are the Fantasy Football Expo and the Livestream that Steve and I will be hosting on this Sunday, July 31st starting at 8pm. The Livestream will be a startup draft for our Dynasty Owner Podcast Listeners league (League #139634), and I look forward to hearing everyone’s input on the rosters. The Fantasy Football Expo is coming up on August 12th to 14th in Canton, Ohio and Steve, Tim, and I (plus more of our fellow Dynasty Owners) will all be in attendance. If any of you are going, please get ahold of me via Twitter and we can make plans!

Building Blocks

  1. Justin Fields (QB – CHI) – 3 years/$4,717,989
  2. Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT) – 4 years/$3,516,976
  3. Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) – 3 years/$6,771,498
  4. Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) – 1 year/$1,070,241

While the Building Blocks on this team aren’t the greatest, they can be excellent role players if the new owner hits on their draft picks. The only player on the Building Block list who I could see finishing at the top of their position in the next 3-5 years is Justin Fields and that is mainly because of his rushing ability. Fields finished first in the NFL among QBs on runs of 10 yards or more in 2021 with 14 total. Fields was also excellent passing on designed rollouts which gives me reason to believe he can succeed at the NFL level in the right system.

Even if the next quarterback on the list, Kenny Pickett hits for the Steelers I don’t see him finishing inside the Top 10. He is a cheap starting quarterback and that will help you take chances elsewhere on this roster.

While Jaylen Waddle is still a fantastic Building Block with three years of rookie control left, he is not quite as appealing as he was before the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000), but I still love the talent moving forward. With Mike McDaniel in South Beach, I believe the offense will be creative enough for both Waddle and Hill to have solid seasons. My bold prediction for the Dolphins’ receivers is that they both finish in the Top 24 receivers this season. I see a lot of 2021 Deebo Samuel from both players.

The last player on this list (Diontae Johnson) is a questionable one but I don’t think this is the time to trade him so I am building around him where I must and planning my cap accordingly. Johnson has two outcomes this coming offseason: take a discount to stay in Pittsburgh which will make him affordable for Dynasty Owners; or get a $20,000,000 plus per year deal to be the clear-cut Number 1 guy elsewhere. Either way I think it’s worth keeping him long-term on this roster at this point.

Players to Trade

  1. Najee Harris (RB – PIT) – 3 years/$3,261,862
  2. Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA) – 1 year/$5,750,000
  3. A.J. Green (WR – ARI) – 1 year/$3,500,000

The Players to Trade list is rather small for this roster, but that is because there are several candidates in the Players to Hold category whose value should increase after the season starts and should be traded at that time. The big fish on this list is none other than Najee Harris. Harris had an excellent season in 2021 and has been a Top 3 pick in startup drafts to this point. I know it will be extremely tempting to keep Harris, but he will be 25 years old before next season starts, which is too old for a rebuild like this. I would trade Harris and swim in the draft picks. The other two players on this list are potential Hold candidates but I have them in this category because I would be shopping them after one good game, or even some training camp hype. 

Players to Hold

  1. Carson Strong (QB – PHI) – 3 years/$853,333
  2. Kellen Mond (QB – MIN) – 3 years/$1,305,854
  3. Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) – 2 years/$7,568,859
  4. Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC) – 1 year/$1,272,500 (not updated yet)
  5. Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR) – 1 year/$1,053,001
  6. Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) – 2 years/$3,123,835
  7. Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ) – 3 years/$2,235,017
  8. Bryan Edwards (WR – ATL) – 2 years/$1,173,113
  9. Mecole Hardman (WR – KC) – 1 year/$1,248,763
  10. Quez Watkins (WR – PHI) – 2 years/$866,166
  11. Will Fuller – Free Agent

The Players to Hold list has some interesting names on it but none more intriguing than Tua Tagovailoa. I have Tua as a Hold because I am expecting him to take a big leap forward this season if he can stay healthy. Judging by the looks of this roster as currently constructed, I would hold Tua with the hope he has a great start to the season and then trade him. Tua should be set up for a ton of easy yardage and touchdowns this season with both Waddle and Hill in the fold. Anytime a quarterback on a rookie deal is playing well, you will get a ton in return for him.

The other big potential piece on this list is Elijah Moore. Moore is a player I am expecting to see a big jump from even though I don’t care much for his quarterback. If Moore lives up to his potential, he could very well end up as a building block for this roster at some point this season.

The last player on this list I could see paying big dividends is Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk had a fantastic finish to the 2020 season and had many of us fooled that he would be a star in 2021. Unfortunately, that didn’t come to fruition but with a disgruntled Deebo Samuel ($1,811,869) in San Francisco, it is a real possibility heading into the next couple of seasons.

Long Term Hold

  1. Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) – 3 years/$902,677
  2. Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) – 4 years/$992,601
  3. Tommy Tremble – (TE – CAR) – 3 years/$1,231,608

The player who may not make sense on this list is Khalil Herbert but hear me out. I know Herbert will produce in some fashion this season, but with David Montgomery only having one season left on his deal with Chicago I am holding out hope that Herbert gets the keys to the Bears’ backfield come 2023. After showing he was more than capable in 2021, I feel a trade now could come with massive regret later. The last two players on the list (Kyren Williams and Tommy Tremble) are both excellent developmental prospects to hang onto and see what happens.

Players to Cut

  1. Ian Book (QB – NO) – 3 years/$1,038,396
  2. Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN) – 1 year/$33,000,000
  3. Latavius Murray – Free Agent
  4. Jared Cook – Free Agent

As always nothing too crazy here. If whoever takes this roster over wants to compete for a playoff spot, I would definitely keep Kirk Cousins, but in a rebuild I am cutting him and using the cap space to take on bad contracts for draft picks in season.

Current Draft Picks

2023 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2024 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd

2025 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd

Dynasty Dollars and Amnesty Provisions

Dynasty Dollars = $10 million

Amnesty Provisions = 2

What I Would Do

After digging into this roster, I have concluded it is time to blow the roster up and build for the future. Dynasty Owner is all about having the top rookie contracts paired with the right veterans on bigger deals and this roster is heading in the opposite direction. I see a real possibility that if this roster were to stay intact, it would have average players on rookie contracts, and I don’t see that pairing well with someone like Diontae Johnson on his second deal. Luckily for whoever takes this roster over there is a path to a speedy rebuild by trading Najee Harris and Tua (eventually) as well as some of the others on the Players to Hold list if they play well. The main two things I would look to add to this roster before the 2023 season gets here are a tight end and receiver who is at least projected to be Top 5.

Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out our other articles by writers, Steve, Matt, and Nate. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

New Contract Spotlight

Russel Gage

Russell Gage

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners, and thank you for reading. Today, I’m going to be bringing you a little bit of news, and then I will continue my New Contract Spotlight series. There are only a few articles left in this series before I start my off-season recaps.  Buckle up, we are almost to the final month of the off-season.

The News

N’Keal Harry (Traded from New England to Chicago)

N’Keal Harry has been traded from the Patriots to the Bears. This would have been considered a massive trade three years ago. The reason is because Harry was a first round pick in 2019 (overall #32 pick). He was the second wide receiver taken that year (Marquise Brown was first by Baltimore with the #25 overall pick). It goes without saying that Harry has massively underperformed expectations. He has less than 60 receptions and less than 700 total yards of offense in his career. Based on his draft capital, this would have been an expected line for his rookie year alone, not a three-year career.

I have to say that I can’t see how this move hurts Harry though. As a fantasy asset, it can’t get much worse for him. He has been unstartable for his entire career. While I don’t think this move to Chicago will make him startable, I do see a world where he is a somewhat reliable Bench wide receiver. Again, I’m not predicting it, but I could see it happening. He should probably be rostered in the majority of Dynasty Owner leagues just on the off-chance that he becomes the WR2 for the Bears behind Darnell Mooney ($894,263). Take the chance on Harry. He will only cost a little more than $2,500,000 for the final year of his rookie deal. He is available in more than 68% of Dynasty Owner leagues.  Go check your leagues now.

Kyle Rudolph (Signed with Tampa Bay)

Under normal circumstances, I would consider Rudolph signing with a team a non-newsworthy event. However, the team and circumstances make this worth mentioning. Rudolph signed with the Buccaneers in the immediate aftermath of Rob Gronkowski’s retirement. Gronk was slated to once again be a Top 10 tight end if he returned. We obviously know that he is not returning for the 2022 season. There will now have to be a primary tight end to fill in for Gronk. I think Cameron Brate ($6,800,000) gets the slight edge at the moment to fill that position. That being said, I don’t think anyone is excited about Brate as a fantasy option. Oh yeah, and Brate costs nearly $7,000,000 per year. We need to wait for the full details of Rudolph’s contract to be released, but I would much rather own a cheap Rudolph over an expensive Brate. Stay tuned for more details, but it seems like Rudolph’s 11.4 percent Dynasty Owner roster percentage is going to increase.

Kyler Murray (Extended by Arizona at 5 years – $230,500,000)

This is by far the biggest news of the segment which is why I saved it for last. This extension technically makes Kyler the second highest paid quarterback per year behind only Aaron Rodgers. Kyler will make 46.1 million dollars per year. This extension will kick in for the 2023 season so Dynasty Owners will be playing with Kyler’s low salary of $8,914,504 for one more season.

It goes without saying, but nearly all of Kyler’s value is going to vanish next year. A player who makes over 46 million dollars (roughly one-third of the current salary cap of $145.74 million) could never rank anywhere near the top in terms of Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP) value. This, however, does not mean that Kyler should be dropped either. Just because a player, especially quarterback, is not ranking high in the DD/FP category that does not mean the player can’t help Dynasty Owners win their League Championship for years in a row. I want to emphasize the point that there should not be a sudden panic to trade or drop Kyler this season or next. He is still on a massively valuable contract this year, and he will still be rosterable next season if you manage your cap well. Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) is rostered in almost 100 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, and he is making just as much this year as Kyler will next year. As always…

“Stay calm, think clearly, make long term decisions.”

This advice directly applies to Kyler’s extension.

New Contract Spotlight

Russell Gage

Some of you may know this about me and some of you may not, but I like to participate in a lot of Dynasty Owner leagues. Currently I have eight leagues. The reason I bring this up is because I’ve bought most of them this off-season and I have a couple with Russell Gage on them. Now, I have a pretty strict process that I use to decide if it would be “worth it” to buy a certain team. If it passes my process, then I buy it. This process is obviously based on purchase price as well as team construction. In the two leagues that I bought teams with Russell Gage, I took him to be actually a decent value. Let me explain…

Gage signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this off-season. He left the Atlanta Falcons to join a much more superior offensive team. His contract is 3 years – $30,000,000. At first glance, this may not seem like a good investment.  You have a 26 year old wide receiver who has almost always been a WR3 or worse for his team. He has yet to pass 75 receptions, 800 yards or 4 touchdowns in any season.

But here’s the positive. Gage has changed teams, and he will be playing with the best quarterback he’s ever had. Gage is also joining a team that will seemingly have a decent wide receiver hole that needs to be filled. Mike Evans ($16,500,000) will clearly be the WR1 for the season, but we also know that Chris Godwin ($20,000,000) will miss some percentage of the 2022 season as he recovers from a torn ACL. From what I’ve heard, it is unlikely he will be ready for the start of the regular season, and his absence could even extend into the middle portion of the season. One thing I love in fantasy is a hot start to a season. This is the reason I bumped up players like Marquise Brown ($2,946,835) and Zach Ertz ($10,550,000) this year.

Conclusion

Gage is poised to have a red hot start to his season. I’m projecting he will be the second most trusted wide receiver for Brady for at least the first half of the 2022 season. I see Gage as a massively underrated player this year, and he is only going for $10,000,000. He is a player who would have little hesitation drafting at his current ADP of 148.7.

Thanks for reading. If there is any player who you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Rookie Storylines – Training Camp

Rookie Storylines

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

With the NFL season starting in less than two months, teams are beginning to report to training camp. The off-season is truly over, and the players are once again putting on their pads. This will be the first time this year, for many teams, that all the starters will be on the field together. This will also be the time that some of those “starters” either tighten the grip on their role, or start to find themselves falling on the depth chart. Everyone loves a good training camp storyline, especially those where a rookie is trying to find their place on the team. The new kids on the block, who are full of potential, start to make their impact and those who have an opportunity may just make something of it. Going into this year’s training camps which rookies have the opportunity to make some noise, can they dethrone the veterans in front of them or will they end up riding the pine longer than anticipated? Here are some young guns to keep an eye on over the coming months.

Rachaad White (RB – TB) – 4 years/$1,282,500

The Buccaneers liked what they saw in Rachaad White, their third round pick this year (overall #91 pick), and his play style fits perfectly to spell Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) throughout games. A big physical runner, White really excels as a pass catcher out of the backfield, something that we have seen Fournette take on a huge volume of since Tom Brady ($15,000,000) rolled into town. White’s competition behind Fournette includes 2020 3rd round pick Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($1,188,999) and veteran Giovani Bernard ($1,272,500). White is already being looked at as the shoe-in for the RB2 position on the team, but with Fournette showing up to camp overweight, there may be a chance for White to see significant time with training camp’s first-team offense as Fournette drops weight.

Jalen Tolbert (WR – DAL) – 4 years/$1,283,930

With incumbent wideout Michael Gallup ($11,500,000) coming off an ACL injury, the Cowboys drafted Jalen Tolbert in the third round (overall #88 pick). Despite being a small school prospect out of South Alabama, I considered Tolbert to be one of the best values at receiver in the draft and now it looks like he’ll get his chance. With a good chance Gallup starts out on the Physically-Unable-To-Perform (PUP) list, Tolbert will have the opportunity for targets early on in the season and could make enough noise to stay on the field once Gallup is back in the Cowboys high octane passing offense. Tolbert’s main competition for targets is James Washington ($1,187,500) who signed with the Cowboys as a free agent this off-season. While Washington is no slouch, I believe Tolbert has the talent to jump him in the pecking order for a team that had three receivers on the field for over 2/3rds of their offensive snaps.

Alec Pierce (WR – IND) – 4 years/$1,650,336

Drafted in the second round (overall #53 pick), yet barely talked about, Alec Pierce had an extremely productive college career at Cincinnati catching passes from Desmond Ridder ($1,340,739). Now he is in Indianapolis catching passes from Matt Ryan ($30,000,000), who despite being 37 years old, can still sling the rock. Pierce could be the WR2 for the Colts behind Michael Pittman Jr. ($2,153,212), as there is little competition outside of the oft-injured Parris Campbell ($1,193,984), who would likely be playing out of the slot when on the field. Pierce should be able to immediately take on the opposite outside receiver role across from Pittman and produce some big catches down the field with his 4.41 40-yard dash speed and 6’ 3” frame. Pierce should be able to take hold of the WR2 role rather quickly throughout training camp.

Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT) – 4 years/$3,516,976

The only first round quarterback selected in this year’s draft (overall #20 pick), Pickett looks to be taking the reins of the Steelers’ franchise from Big Ben, but not so fast. Before Pickett can take the field as the starting quarterback for the Steelers he’s going to have to beat out former first round pick, Mitchell Trubisky ($7,142,500). At the moment, the Steelers are giving Trubisky the first shot at the job and looking for Pickett to learn and grow before having to throw an NFL pass. Trubisky is anything but the long-term option though as Pickett and the Pittsburgh media will be breathing down his neck at the first sign of incompetency. Will Pickett be able to establish himself as a legitimate option by the end of training camp?

Skyy Moore (WR – KC) – 4 years/$1,612,625

One of the biggest storylines for the entire summer is the Chiefs passing attack post-Tyreek Hill ($18,000,000). The team brought in a couple outside options to help fill the hole he leaves, but none of them are expected to do it by themselves. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,250,000) is the most established free agent they brought to Kansas City, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000,000) also came to town looking to make a big impact. We can’t forget about speedster Mecole Hardman ($1,248,763) who enters the last year of his rookie contract. Outside of those two free agent signings, the Chiefs drafted Moore in the second round (overall #54pick) and could be looking for him to contribute rather quickly. Coming from Western Michigan, Moore had an extremely productive college career ending with a stat line of 95 receptions/1,292 receiving yards/10 touchdowns in 2021. He offers great playmaking ability after the catch and with his speed should fit into the Chiefs’ offense nicely. Will he be able to do enough to stand out through training camp and push the veteran free agents that have joined the team? If he can become a top three option at the wide receiver position for the Chiefs, then he will likely make an impact for your Dynasty Owner team.

Breaking Down a Current Orphan Team

ORPHAN TEAM

League #35693

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl) 

Dynasty Owners, welcome back to another week of rebuilding teams with Jay. I don’t know about all of you, but for me it is time to start the countdown to the 2022 NFL season. With that said, we are only 51 days from seeing top level football again. Each year when the pre-season nears, I feel as if I were a kid eagerly awaiting a visit from Santa again. If my significant other were to read that last line, she would likely shake her head, chuckle, and say you really do have a fantasy football problem. While I do not disagree with her, I also do not care because football is almost back! 

In today’s article, I will be putting a little spin on the Rebuilding with Our Dynasty Owners series and will be selecting one team from the Dynasty Owner orphan store to breakdown. I will likely continue this until all orphan teams have been purchased. If you have never taken over an orphan team, you are in for a real treat today. Personally, I feel that taking over an orphan team and bringing it back to prominence is one of the toughest and most rewarding things fantasy football has to offer. Typically, rebuilding teams do not have a bright future as the previous owner usually gives up and either makes questionable moves, or no moves at all making it a huge task for the new owner to get the roster to a comfortable place. If you are a fantasy football nut who loves a challenge, look no further you have come to the right place! 

I have created a new category (Long-Term Hold) that better suits some player situations. A Long-Term Hold will be a player who is a potential Building Block but is unlikely to produce for more than a season, or a rookie who is talented but not yet a Building Block. 

Building Blocks 

  1. Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) – 10 years/$45,000,000 
  1. Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) – 3 years/$7,704,910 
  1. Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL) – 1 year/$2,725,178 

The Building Blocks for this team are rather slim, but part of the reason for that is because the Players to Trade list has last year’s fantasy football M.V.P. (Cooper Kupp) on it. The first player on the list I want to cover is the most controversial, Calvin Ridley. I know some will say I could have placed Ridley on the Long-Term Hold list because he is suspended for the season, but that category is more for developmental prospects and Ridley is nowhere near that. We have seen Ridley put up a WR1 season already and while he may not get back to that, I see no issues with him as a WR2 for quite awhile upon returning from suspension. Plus, you will get nowhere near his value in a trade right now.  

Up next, we have my favorite young receiver in the game, Ja’Marr Chase. In 2021, Chase put up unbelievable numbers as a rookie after reconnecting with his college quarterback from LSU, Joe Burrow. I see no reason to believe Chase can’t put up the same, or better numbers, in 2022 considering the upgrades the Bengals made to their roster this off-season.  

The last guy on the list is none other than Patrick Mahomes and just as I said with Chase, he doesn’t need much of an explanation. I know $45,000,000 may seem like a ton for a quarterback but before long he will likely be seen as a bargain as quarterback salaries continue to rise. 

Long-Term Hold 

  1. Malik Willis (QB – TEN) – 4 years/$1,286,083 
  1. Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) – 4 years/$3,762,090 

Welcome to the inaugural version of the Long-Term Hold category! The first player I will cover in this new section is none other than Malik Willis. I figured with so much craziness surrounding him the last few months, he would be the perfect player to start off this category. Willis is an extremely talented kid, but he is also very raw when it comes to the finer things that quarterbacks need to succeed in the NFL. Willis will be a project for your roster and the Tennessee Titans, but at a low salary of $1.286 million per season you can afford to be patient. If Willis ends up as even an average starter in the next couple of years, he will be a huge value for this roster.  

The second player on this list, Jahan Dotson will see the field a lot this season, but I could not justify him as a Building Block just yet, but also felt he was more than just a hold. It took me a while to come around to him but after digging into Dotson I feel he has the tools to succeed at the NFL level for quite a while. I am not so sure he will become an elite receiver, but I do see someone who should be a quality contributor for many seasons if the Commanders can develop him correctly. I know that’s a huge “if” because it’s the Commanders. 

Players to Trade 

  1. Jamal Williams (RB – DET) – 1 year/$3,000,000 
  1. David Montgomery (RB – CHI) – 1 year/$1,003,845 
  1. Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) – 2 years/$15,750,000 
  1. Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV) – 1 year/$708,987 
  1. Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA) – 1 year/$10,931,000 
  1. Albert Okwuegbunam (TE – DEN) – 2 years/$1,011,011 

The Players to Trade list has some interesting names on it, but none better than Cooper Kupp! Kupp was an absolute beast in 2021 and outside of an injury, I see zero reasons to believe it won’t happen again. The Rams are virtually running it back in 2022 and with Kupp and Stafford locked up long-term, it is a perfect opportunity to trade the star receiver. At 29 years old, Kupp belongs nowhere near a rebuilding roster so trade him now and reap the rewards for years to come.  

David Montgomery is another great trade piece for this roster who will return great assets. If I were purchasing this orphan team, the first thing I would do after trading Kupp is offer Montgomery up to all the contenders. If you would like a more detailed explanation on why to trade Montgomery, check back to my article from last week.  

Another interesting player in this category is Hunter Renfrow. I know the addition of Davante Adams hurts the overall outlook of Renfrow, but at such a low salary this season, I feel he will still return solid value in a trade.  

The two tight ends on this list are very different from each other, but in both situations, I think I would look to trade them. Gesicki is a player who I have never cared much for, and it has gotten much worse with his new contract. I would move Gesicki for a tuna sandwich at this point and I hate tuna, meaning get what you can for him and do not look back. Finally, Albert O is in the best situation of his career and that’s exactly why I am moving him. With all the hype surrounding the Broncos tight end, I think it’s a much safer bet to trade him vs. holding him and hoping he pans out.  

Players to Hold 

  1. Gardner Minshew (QB – PHI) – 1 year/$677,721 
  1. Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) – 3 years/$1,048,294 
  1. Devin Singletary (RB – BUF) – 1 year/$974,500 
  1. Kenyan Drake (RB – LV) – 1 year/$5,500,000 
  1. Bryan Edwards (WR – ATL) – 2 years/$1,173,113 
  1. Tutu Atwell (WR – LAR) – 3 years/$1,477,175 

The Players to Hold list doesn’t have any surprising candidates but it does offer some potential hope. Gardner Minshew is an extremely cheap backup playing behind a quarterback that likes to run the ball in Jalen Hurts. If Hurts gets hurt (no pun intended), Minshew will become one of the best values on the platform and will surely return valuable assets in a trade.  

Devin Singletary is another interesting player and one I would hold onto at this point. If James Cook comes out and struggles while Singletary does well, his trade value will likely skyrocket.  

The most questionable player on this list is Kenyan Drake and while I see reasons to cut him, I think he’s a better Player to Hold if you have the cap space. No, Drake will not become a featured back at this point in his career but if an injury does happen, he is still a talented back who can put up numbers which will make it much easier to trade him vs. cutting him and getting nothing.  

The last player I want to touch on is Bryan Edwards. Edwards is not in a great situation playing on a terrible Atlanta team, but he does have two very important things going for him. The first being he is familiar with Marcus Mariota, and the second being he will get every opportunity to succeed making him an easy Player to Hold. 

Players to Cut 

  1. Case Keenum (QB – BUF) – 1 year/$6,000,000 
  1. Taysom Hill (QB – NO) – 4 years/$10,000,000 
  1. Brandon Bolden (RB – LV) – 2 years/$2,505,000 
  1. Jermar Jefferson (RB – DET) – 3 years/$889,581 
  1. Tevin Coleman (RB – NYJ) – 1 year/$1,500,000 
  1. Anthony Miller (WR – PIT) – 1 year/$1,035,000 
  1. Rashard Higgins (WR – CAR) – 1 year/$1,187,500 
  1. Mo Alie-Cox (TE – IND) – 3 years/$5,850,000 

Of course, there are a few players you can make the case to keep but I feel the best course of action for all of these players is to cut ties and free up quite a bit of salary cap space (nearly $29 million). 

Current Rookie Draft Picks 

2023 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd 

2024 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd 

2025 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd 

Dynasty Dollars and Amnesty Provisions 

Dynasty Dollars = $10 million 

Amnesty Provisions = 3 

My Thoughts 

Overall, this roster needs a ton of work, but a turnaround can be made rather quickly if done right. The trade asset of Cooper Kupp alone is enough to jumpstart a rebuild. The first thing I would look to do with this roster is to build through the receiver position and find a quarterback to pair with Mahomes. I also think that this team may need to shy away from the tight end position until it is time to compete and acquire one via trade as the position tends to take awhile to develop. If you are up for a challenge, this is a great roster for you! 

Thank you all for reading and playing Dynasty Owner. Be sure to check out the rest of our articles written by Steve, Nate, and Matt. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring! 

New Contract Spotlight

Dolphins RB's Spotlight

Miami Dolphins Running Backs

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello friends, and welcome to another New Contract Spotlight article. As I am running low on ideas for new contract articles, I will turn my attention to an entire running back room instead of a single running back. I’ve talked about some of these players recently, but now I’m going to give the spotlight to all of the new Dolphins’ running backs. As I bring you all of the new contracts from the room, I’ll hopefully be able to work through who I think will be the primary back for the team.

First, let me give a rundown of the Dolphins team as a whole.

The Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins finished the 2021 season with a 9 – 8 record. They finished third in the AFC East. It was always going to be an uphill battle to overtake the Bills for the division title, but I did think they had a decent chance of coming in second and getting a wild card spot. As it happened, the Dolphins finished one game back of that second place spot.

I don’t want to dwell on the negative. Instead, I want to tell you the most impressive part of Miami’s season. It is the fact that the Dolphins finished the season with eight wins in their final nine games. This is a testament to Brian Flores and how he was able to motivate a team that was previously 1 – 7. I would love to go on a rant about how this is going to lead into a hot start for the upcoming season, but I think it’s a moot point. As almost all of you know, Flores was fired at the end of the 2021 regular season. Many people (including me) were baffled by this move, but it is unfortunately what happened.

So, what else has changed with the organization? Well, the biggest change has to be the addition of Tyreek Hill. In late March, Hill ($18,000,000) was traded from the Chiefs to the Dolphins. This move made me immediately upgrade Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859). While I don’t think anyone would say that Tua is a better quarterback than Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000), he should take a step forward in his third year. If he does, this would provide an adequate source of receptions for Hill. We also know there was a good deal of turnover in the running back department, but I will talk about that in the New Contract Spotlight.

Let’s talk about Jaylen Waddle ($6,771,498) for the moment…I think Waddle’s rookie season is a little underappreciated, and I’m not exactly sure why. Waddle finished as the WR13 in Dynasty Owner despite being a rookie. His underestimation is two-fold. It starts with the fact that there was a better rookie wide receiver in 2021. That player is obviously Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910). Chase finished eight spots ahead of Waddle, and he amassed 65.9 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This happens every year where one rookie overshadows another, but it really shouldn’t happen like this. Waddle had an outstanding rookie season in his own right. He is also a little overshadowed recently because of the aforementioned Tyreek Hill acquisition. There’s no way to sugarcoat it…I believe that Hill coming to Miami is a negative for Waddle. It’s definitely a positive for the team as a whole, but a negative for Waddle. Hill will command the most targets for the Dolphins, and he will likely receive the majority of the deep air targets. All this being said, I still expect a Top 20 wide receiver finish from Waddle.

New Contract Spotlights

Alright, now let’s talk about the three new running backs for Miami.

Chase Edmonds

Edmonds is my top pick to lead the Dolphins’ backfield. I believe he is the most established running back with the most likely chance to be the workhorse running back. He signed a 2 year – $12,100,000 contract with Miami this off-season. This is worth $6,050,000 per year. Edmonds is a player who I am excited to own as my RB3 or RB4. He will not be able to take you to the promised land as a starting running back all season, but he is a perfect player to keep on your Bench and then use him when your starting running backs get injured or are on a bye. He is the running back I think about when I want depth and insurance. The best part is that he is fairly easy to acquire via trade. I don’t see him costing you much more than a 2023 2nd round rookie draft pick if you are looking for solid running back depth.

Raheem Mostert

Mostert was also signed by the Dolphins this off-season. He signed a 1 year – $2,125,000 contract. This length and amount is understandable when you think about the fact that Mostert is 30 years old. Despite his age, he will be the fastest running back on the team this year and he may be the fastest offensive player on the team. Mostert is one year removed from a season ending knee injury that he sustained in Week 1 of 2021. He has been recovering and rehabbing as any professional player would, and it is reportedly going very well. If Mostert is fully healthy for the entire 2022 season, he will get meaningful touches. He is just too electric of a player not to. That being said, it’s hard for me to predict a full season.

Sony Michel

Michel is the wildcard player for this spotlight. He leaves the World Champion Los Angeles Rams to join the Dolphins. Michel signed a 1 year – $1,750,000 contract. Believe it or not, he is only 27 years old, which is a couple years younger than I assumed. Michel had a very solid season in 2021 as he filled in for the injured Cam Akers ($1,543,258). He nearly racked up 1,000 total yards along with five touchdowns. I don’t expect that level of success in Miami. I think Sony will be used, but will be behind both Edmonds and Mostert if all three players are healthy.

Conclusion

This backfield will be more of a committee than any of us would like to see. That being said, I have Edmonds being the leader. If I had to put a number on it, this is how I see the touches shaking out in 2022…

Edmonds50%
Mostert30%
Michel10%
Others10%

Again, this prediction hinges on the idea that all three players stay healthy all season. If one or two of them go down for any amount of time, the other(s) could turn into league winning values.  I also want to mention that Myles Gaskin ($651,694) is still the incumbent in Miami, but I expect him to get very few meaningful touches.

Thanks for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Seven Players Rebuilding Owners Should Trade

players to trade

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, welcome back to another week of rebuilding with Jay! In last week’s article, I touched on some of the players I thought rebuilding users should pick up off the Free Agent Auction and this week I will switch tunes and discuss players who I feel should be traded away in a rebuild. I know I said I would be getting back to helping users with their rebuilding rosters this week but there will be plenty of time for that in the upcoming slow period for the NFL. The worst part of every off-season is the last two months as the NFL season is so close, yet so far away at the same time. With that being said if any of you reading this have a team that you are rebuilding and would like me to cover that team in an article, please feel free to contact me via Twitter. Enough of me boring you as much as the NFL dead zone, let’s get into today’s article. The players listed below had one requirement to make the cut and that is that they must be a player who I don’t think rebuilding users should roster.

  • Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) – 2 years/$14,400,000

I am sure many of you will question this decision but after digging into it, it is time to move on from Stefon Diggs. While doing research, I have found that around age 27-28 is when most players hit their peak, and while there are more than a couple outliers in the situation the majority tend to fall off at the age. Diggs is 28 heading into the season and while I am holding onto him in leagues that I’m a contender in, I am trying to move him before his contract extension kicks in next season. I know it is always tough trading a player away from one of the top offenses in the league, but in fantasy football you must strike when the iron is hot no matter who the player is, or what team they play on. Diggs will no doubt be a great player for the next year or two but when you are rebuilding, he will be fading when it comes time for your team to win.

  • James Conner (RB – ARI) – 3 years/$7,000,000

If you have listened to any of the recent Dynasty Owner podcasts that Steve and I have done, you will know I just told him to move on from James Conner, even in a league he is contending in. Conner had a great season last year and I am using his fantastic season to move on from the Cardinals running back. Conner should no doubt have a decent market as he finished as RB6 in Dynasty Owner last season. The main reasons I feel most Conner owners should attempt to trade him is because he has been injury prone throughout most of his career and that he has hit that magic age of 27 where running backs start to fall off. As much as I love James Conner, I just can’t see him being a top tier running back anywhere past 2022.

  • Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) – 1 year/$1,811,869

I absolutely hate putting a player like Deebo Samuel on this list but there are two major reasons I am moving on from Deebo. The first and most important reason I would move on from Deebo is because of the massive contract extension he is about to receive. I am ok paying certain players, but the amount of work Deebo saw last season worries me moving forward. I want players who are going to be coming into their prime after my rebuild, not beat down players making $30 million a season. The second set of reasons, which I somewhat already listed, is the fact Deebo plays like a running back a ton, has a spotty injury history, and is nearing the age 27 we talked about earlier.

  • Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) – 2 years/$1,233,159

While I do remain a big Antonio Gibson guy, I do feel it is time for rebuilding users to cut ties. The talent of Gibson is there; there is no doubt about that, but it doesn’t mean he comes without significant question marks. Gibson had major ball security issues last season with six fumbles and seemed to struggle near the red zone, though I will admit I did not watch many of the Football Team’s games last season as they were not shown on the RedZone Channel all that much. Another major concern I have with Gibson is the signs the Commanders are putting out. Anytime a team has a talent like Gibson and is still re-signing and drafting players at the position he plays; it comes off as worrisome. I hope Gibson proves the doubters wrong, but I am not banking on that in the middle of a rebuild. Be safe and take the draft capital.

  • David Montgomery (RB – CHI) – 1 year/$1,003,845

David Montgomery is a player I like a ton heading into the 2022 season, but not so much after that. While Monty could resign with the Bears, I just do not see it happening with the emergence of Khalil Herbert ($902,677) last season and even if Monty does re-sign, I have made it perfectly clear that I try to stay away from most running backs going into their second contract if I am rebuilding. I also worry about the fact Montgomery now has a quarterback in Justin Fields ($4,717,989) who loves to use his legs which will cut into Montgomery’s workload if he does choose to stay in Chicago. Overall, the risk of Montgomery leaving Chicago, the uncertainty that comes with it, and the fact he will become much more expensive next season is enough for me to move on from the former Iowa State product.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) – 2 years/$7,568,859

I know Tua gets a lot of hate and in most fantasy football platforms I am hanging on to him, but as you all already know Dynasty Owner is not most platforms. Here on Dynasty Owner, Tua will no longer be a value in two short seasons as a contract extension nears. I look at Tua and see two outcomes I am not all that fond of. The first situation is probably the most obvious, which is Tua continues to play like an average quarterback at best and becomes a backup, or journeyman, for years to come. The other scenario is Tua coming out and playing well, getting a contract extension, and then you are stuck with an expensive average quarterback. Regardless of how Tua plays this season I feel trading him now will likely bring back the most value.

  • T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET) – 1 year/$4,955,306

Finally, we have Detroit Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson has been a solid tight end since joining the NFL, but I feel he has probably hit his ceiling in Detroit. The Iowa product will likely be a perennial Top 10 tight end, but he will be much more expensive come this time next season as he has gotten his fifth year option picked up for $9,392,000. After that option year, if Hockenson leaves Detroit and ends up in the perfect situation, sure he will be worth his new contract, but I see many scenarios where he ends up in what I like to call the Dallas Goedert tier of tight ends. The Dallas Goedert tier has tight ends who will put up decent numbers and should be rostered, but who I only want in certain situations. The last thing that worries me about Hockenson is the moves that the Lions have made this off-season bringing in Jameson Williams ($4,365,448) and D.J. Chark ($10,000,000), along with the question mark they still have at quarterback in Jared Goff ($33,500,000).

Thank you all for reading, be sure to check out the rest of the content here on Dynasty Owner by Steve, Matt, and Nate. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2022 Chase for the Ring!

Looking Ahead- 2023 Draft

Crystal Ball

An Early Look at Some Top 2023 Draft Picks 

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL) 

Over the course of the next two months as we lead up to the NFL regular season, you should take a good look at your Dynasty Owner team. Do you have two solid quarterbacks? Do you have enough running backs to feel comfortable about the ones you’re starting on your Bench? Are you deep at wide receiver? Do you have a productive tight end or two? If you answered yes to all of these questions, congratulations, you probably have a contending team. If you answered “no” to one, then you may need to make a move to strengthen your team. If you found yourself answering “no” to more than one of these questions, you may need to think more about 2023, than 2022.  

In dynasty fantasy football you need to always be moving forward. It doesn’t matter if you’re the worst team in the league or if you are the reigning champion. With the amount of talent that comes into the league every year through the rookie draft, you need to make sure your team is improving just to keep up! The 2022 draft class is full of good wide receivers, but struggles a bit with the quarterback position and at the top with running backs outside of Breece Hall ($2,253,963). However, this will be the cheapest you will ever be able to acquire some of these players before they hit their prime. Players like Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287), CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), and Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910) had their best price point during the rookie draft. Now everyone doesn’t always hit, but the risk is often worth the reward with the rookie draft.  

If you are already starting to look at 2023 as a more competitive season than 2022, it may help to acquire some 2023 1st and 2nd round rookie draft picks throughout the season to set yourself up nicely a year from now. The 2023 class is being heralded as one of the better classes to come out of college in recent years and is loaded at multiple positions. Let’s take a look below at some of the exciting players you can expect to make it to your Dynasty Owner team next year.  

QB: Bryce Young, Alabama 

The 2021 Heisman winner, you may already be familiar with this quarterback. He proved his toughness last year with an impressive game-winning drive against Auburn and dominated the SEC for most of the season. In his first year as a starter, he threw for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns, with only 7 interceptions. While there are concerns about his size (listed at 6’ 0”), Young offers mobility in and around the pocket that already reminds scouts of Russell Wilson ($35,000,000), especially when you combine that with his big arm to get the ball down the field. Young has competition for the QB1 spot from Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud, but has a chance to be a fantasy stud with his ability to use his legs, when needed, to extend plays. Young will likely come into the league as a Top 15 quarterback in dynasty. 

RB: Bijan Robinson, Texas 

Likely to be considered one of the best running back prospects to come out since Ezekiel Elliot, Robinson is a true stud. After a high school senior season that saw him eclipse 2,000 rushing yards and find the end zone 38 times, he went to Texas as a 5-star recruit.  He offers elite athleticism, the ability to win between the tackles, and also the upside as a pass-catcher that could see his fantasy stock rise to the top tier of workhorse running backs. Last year, Robinson ran for 1,127 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns before an arm injury cut his season short. He also caught 26 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns. Not only is he one of the best backs in the Big 12, but all of college football right now. When Bijan is available in your rookie drafts he will probably already be considered a Top-10 option at his position. 

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State 

The consensus WR1 for the 2023 class, Smith-Njigba put on a masterclass last year while being behind both Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502) and Chris Olave ($4,817,969). He outproduced both first round picks with 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns. What makes Smith-Njigba so great? He’s listed at 6’ 0” and 197 pounds, so he doesn’t scream “Alpha” right away at that height, but he does have good size with being nearly 200 pounds. What makes Smith-Njigba such an intriguing prospect is his ability to get open and then find green grass with the ball in his hands. He isn’t the fastest player out there, but his stop-start ability is near elite and gives him the ability to find separation against just about any corner he lines up against. A very technical player already, he is set up for a huge year with C.J. Stroud as his quarterback and Wilson plus Olave moving on to the NFL. When it is all said and done, there is a chance Smith-Njigba could hear his name called in the first ten picks of next year’s NFL Draft. With how quickly we expect Smith-Njigba’s talents to translate to the NFL, he will be looked at as a Top-20 dynasty asset at the wide receiver position. 

TE: Michael Mayer, Notre Dame 

Adding his name to a long list of Notre Dame tight end prospects such as Kyle Rudolph ($6,000,000), Tyler Eifert ($4,750,000), and Cole Kmet ($1,894,445), Mayer should be next year’s top tight end prospect and offers enough upside to possibly hear his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft. While not a Kyle Pitts-level athlete, Mayer is expected to run in the 4.6-4.7 range next off-season at the NFL Combine, which at 6’ 5” and 250 pounds is more than enough to hold his own at the next level. He’s a smooth athlete who knows how to get open with his route running and he was able to handle a large workload for an offense and produce with that opportunity. Last year, he finished with 71 receptions for 840 yards and seven touchdowns, incredible numbers for a college tight end. Mayer is able to make an impact in the run game as well as a blocker on the end of the line, which gives him Week 1 NFL upside. He’s a player who you can plan on taking a look at early in next year’s Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. The position may be a little thin and top heavy, so Mayer will be a TE1 in dynasty fantasy football as soon as he gets drafted. 

You can follow Nate on Twitter @NateNFL

New Contract Spotlight

Rashaad Penny Contract Spotlight

Rashaad Penny

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hey Dynasty Owners. Thank you for joining me for another Free Agent Friday. Today, I’m going to continue with my New Contract Spotlight series. As I stated last week, I’m going to put out another four weeks’ worth of Spotlight articles before I start my recap series. That off-season recap series should lead us right into the new NFL season.  We haven’t talked about news in a while so that is where we are going to start today.

The News

Terry McLaurin (Extended with Washington at 3 years – $68,634,000)

Scary Terry has signed a massive contract extension with the Washington Commanders.  McLaurin’s new contract will make him one of the top paid wide receivers in the game. As is the case with every extension after the new league year, this one will not kick in until the next season. Enjoy his sub $1,000,000 salary ($961,918) as this will be his final “value year”.

Deshaun Watson (Uncertain standing with the NFL, suspension expected)

I hesitated if I wanted to include this in the news section as some of this will be speculation, but I decided it was pertinent enough to some Dynasty Owners as Watson ($46,000,000) is rostered in 38.9% of Dynasty Owner leagues.  First the facts…

  • Watson has been accused of sexual assault and/or harassment by at least 24 women.
  • 20 of those 24 civil cases have been settled.
  • Watson and a 2024 6th round pick were traded to the Browns in exchange for three 1st round picks (2022, 2023, and 2024), one 3rd round pick (2023) and two 4th round picks (2022 and 2024). The Texans traded the 2022 1st round pick (#13 overall) to Philadelphia for four 2022 draft picks (1st round – #15 overall, 4th round – #124 overall, and two 5th round picks – #162 and #166 overall) and drafted RB Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858) with the 2022 4th round pick (#107 overall).
  • Watson signed a massive 5 year – $230,000,000 fully guaranteed contract.

This is what has taken place over the past few months. While I wouldn’t say that it’s fact, I think it’s pretty well assumed that Watson will be suspended for at least some time. The suspension ranges I’ve heard have been anywhere from 6 weeks to 2 years. That’s a big range so this is what I think will happen. I believe that Watson will not play this season. I believe he will be suspended for at least one full NFL season. If this does actually happen, he will be dropped in most Dynasty Owner leagues. It’s hard enough to roster a $46,000,000 quarterback even if he is playing at an elite level. It’s not possible to hold a $46,000,000 quarterback that isn’t playing at all. You will stunt your team’s growth, and I can practically guarantee that no one can win a championship like that. Watson is currently rostered in less than 40% of leagues, so I think most of Dynasty Owners have seen the writing is on the wall.

Alvin Kamara (Uncertain standing with the NFL, “bracing for a suspension”)

Speaking of suspensions, Alvin Kamara ($15,000,000) is also looking at a potential suspension. This suspension stems from a battery allegation that took place on the night of the most recent Pro Bowl. The assumption here is that Kamara is not in any danger of getting a full year suspension. Instead, it’s expected he will get somewhere between a four and eight game benching. I think splitting the difference between those two numbers will be likely. With a six game suspension, Kamara would fall pretty far down my running back rankings.  If you currently have Kamara on your Dynasty Owner roster, I would try to obtain both Tony Jones ($825,000) and Mark Ingram ($1,800,000) although I think Ingram is the priority.

I really do hate writing about such negativity, but it is a reality with all sports. My job is to report to you the necessary information to help you make solid decisions. Both of these likely suspensions are something that everyone needs to hear and prepare for.

Baker Mayfield (Traded to Carolina)

On Wednesday of this week, Baker Mayfield ($18,858,000) was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Carolina Panthers. He was traded for a 2024 5th round pick that will become a 2024 4th round pick if Baker plays in at least 70 percent of team’s snaps in 2022. As most trades do, this has major implications for many players other than Baker.

First, this affects the Browns’ starting quarterback situation. I think most thought Baker was not going to play a snap for the Browns this season, but now we know it’s official. This means that we will have some combination of Jacoby Brissett ($4,650,000) and possibly Deshaun Watson.

This also affects Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) and the Panthers’ offensive players. Darnold immediately becomes the backup quarterback. I think he is a fine backup, but in my opinion the only way he sees the field this year is with a Baker injury.  I also think the Panthers’ offensive weapons take a step forward. Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) D.J. Moore ($20,628,000), and Robby Anderson ($14,750,00) all have been bumped up a little in my rankings.

Finally, let’s talk about Baker himself. While I don’t expect him to have a better record than last year, I do think he will have a better fantasy finish than he did with the Browns (QB25). He will likely be required to pass more, and he has a better core of receivers than he did last year. At $18,858,000, he will be on the cheaper end for veteran quarterbacks.

New Contract Spotlight

Rashaad Penny

I’m going to be brief with Penny today, but I do want to discuss some important points. Penny signed a 1 year – $5,750,000 contract with the Seahawks. He comes into the 2022 season as the expected starting running back. Yes, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Penny and the Seahawks’ team as a whole. Here are my major concerns with Penny…

  • He has an extensive injury history.
  • He now has two running backs (Chris Carson – $5,212,500 and Kenneth Walker – $2,110,395) competing with him for both touches and the lead back duty.
  • Drew Lock ($1,752,704) or Geno Smith ($3,500,000) is likely to be the Seahawks starting quarterback to start the season.

I feel like with all of these concerns Penny is being somewhat forgotten about this off-season.  There just isn’t much buzz surrounding him. Yes, he is still rostered in 100 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, but that doesn’t mean he is being appreciated as much as he should. Penny had an almost historic ending to his season. Think about this fact.

Penny finished as the RB37 in Dynasty Owner last year. This is a similar spot to where players like J.D. McKissic (RB39; $3,500,000) and Chase Edmonds (RB33; $6,050,000) finished. RB37 doesn’t sound like a great achievement (and it isn’t), but 91 percent of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points came in the final five games of the season.  In those games, he scored more than 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points total (118.2 in total, or 23.6 per game). I don’t expect this to be the norm for Penny, but if he can remain somewhat healthy for an entire NFL season, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be the rushing leader for the team. So, what do we do with Penny?

Conclusion

I’m holding him, but probably also not actively looking to buy him. I think his value is at the lower end of what it could be. I would stand pat with him and look to trade him sometime in the first half of the 2022 season. We know that Walker is the future of the Seattle backfield. Let Penny get off to a hot start this year, and trade him at his peak value.

Thanks for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk