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Rashaad Penny
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hey Dynasty Owners. Thank you for joining me for another Free Agent Friday. Today, I’m going to continue with my New Contract Spotlight series. As I stated last week, I’m going to put out another four weeks’ worth of Spotlight articles before I start my recap series. That off-season recap series should lead us right into the new NFL season. We haven’t talked about news in a while so that is where we are going to start today.
The News
Terry McLaurin (Extended with Washington at 3 years – $68,634,000)
Scary Terry has signed a massive contract extension with the Washington Commanders. McLaurin’s new contract will make him one of the top paid wide receivers in the game. As is the case with every extension after the new league year, this one will not kick in until the next season. Enjoy his sub $1,000,000 salary ($961,918) as this will be his final “value year”.
Deshaun Watson (Uncertain standing with the NFL, suspension expected)
I hesitated if I wanted to include this in the news section as some of this will be speculation, but I decided it was pertinent enough to some Dynasty Owners as Watson ($46,000,000) is rostered in 38.9% of Dynasty Owner leagues. First the facts…
- Watson has been accused of sexual assault and/or harassment by at least 24 women.
- 20 of those 24 civil cases have been settled.
- Watson and a 2024 6th round pick were traded to the Browns in exchange for three 1st round picks (2022, 2023, and 2024), one 3rd round pick (2023) and two 4th round picks (2022 and 2024). The Texans traded the 2022 1st round pick (#13 overall) to Philadelphia for four 2022 draft picks (1st round – #15 overall, 4th round – #124 overall, and two 5th round picks – #162 and #166 overall) and drafted RB Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858) with the 2022 4th round pick (#107 overall).
- Watson signed a massive 5 year – $230,000,000 fully guaranteed contract.
This is what has taken place over the past few months. While I wouldn’t say that it’s fact, I think it’s pretty well assumed that Watson will be suspended for at least some time. The suspension ranges I’ve heard have been anywhere from 6 weeks to 2 years. That’s a big range so this is what I think will happen. I believe that Watson will not play this season. I believe he will be suspended for at least one full NFL season. If this does actually happen, he will be dropped in most Dynasty Owner leagues. It’s hard enough to roster a $46,000,000 quarterback even if he is playing at an elite level. It’s not possible to hold a $46,000,000 quarterback that isn’t playing at all. You will stunt your team’s growth, and I can practically guarantee that no one can win a championship like that. Watson is currently rostered in less than 40% of leagues, so I think most of Dynasty Owners have seen the writing is on the wall.
Alvin Kamara (Uncertain standing with the NFL, “bracing for a suspension”)
Speaking of suspensions, Alvin Kamara ($15,000,000) is also looking at a potential suspension. This suspension stems from a battery allegation that took place on the night of the most recent Pro Bowl. The assumption here is that Kamara is not in any danger of getting a full year suspension. Instead, it’s expected he will get somewhere between a four and eight game benching. I think splitting the difference between those two numbers will be likely. With a six game suspension, Kamara would fall pretty far down my running back rankings. If you currently have Kamara on your Dynasty Owner roster, I would try to obtain both Tony Jones ($825,000) and Mark Ingram ($1,800,000) although I think Ingram is the priority.
I really do hate writing about such negativity, but it is a reality with all sports. My job is to report to you the necessary information to help you make solid decisions. Both of these likely suspensions are something that everyone needs to hear and prepare for.
Baker Mayfield (Traded to Carolina)
On Wednesday of this week, Baker Mayfield ($18,858,000) was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Carolina Panthers. He was traded for a 2024 5th round pick that will become a 2024 4th round pick if Baker plays in at least 70 percent of team’s snaps in 2022. As most trades do, this has major implications for many players other than Baker.
First, this affects the Browns’ starting quarterback situation. I think most thought Baker was not going to play a snap for the Browns this season, but now we know it’s official. This means that we will have some combination of Jacoby Brissett ($4,650,000) and possibly Deshaun Watson.
This also affects Sam Darnold ($18,858,000) and the Panthers’ offensive players. Darnold immediately becomes the backup quarterback. I think he is a fine backup, but in my opinion the only way he sees the field this year is with a Baker injury. I also think the Panthers’ offensive weapons take a step forward. Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) D.J. Moore ($20,628,000), and Robby Anderson ($14,750,00) all have been bumped up a little in my rankings.
Finally, let’s talk about Baker himself. While I don’t expect him to have a better record than last year, I do think he will have a better fantasy finish than he did with the Browns (QB25). He will likely be required to pass more, and he has a better core of receivers than he did last year. At $18,858,000, he will be on the cheaper end for veteran quarterbacks.
New Contract Spotlight
Rashaad Penny
I’m going to be brief with Penny today, but I do want to discuss some important points. Penny signed a 1 year – $5,750,000 contract with the Seahawks. He comes into the 2022 season as the expected starting running back. Yes, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Penny and the Seahawks’ team as a whole. Here are my major concerns with Penny…
- He has an extensive injury history.
- He now has two running backs (Chris Carson – $5,212,500 and Kenneth Walker – $2,110,395) competing with him for both touches and the lead back duty.
- Drew Lock ($1,752,704) or Geno Smith ($3,500,000) is likely to be the Seahawks starting quarterback to start the season.
I feel like with all of these concerns Penny is being somewhat forgotten about this off-season. There just isn’t much buzz surrounding him. Yes, he is still rostered in 100 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, but that doesn’t mean he is being appreciated as much as he should. Penny had an almost historic ending to his season. Think about this fact.
Penny finished as the RB37 in Dynasty Owner last year. This is a similar spot to where players like J.D. McKissic (RB39; $3,500,000) and Chase Edmonds (RB33; $6,050,000) finished. RB37 doesn’t sound like a great achievement (and it isn’t), but 91 percent of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points came in the final five games of the season. In those games, he scored more than 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points total (118.2 in total, or 23.6 per game). I don’t expect this to be the norm for Penny, but if he can remain somewhat healthy for an entire NFL season, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be the rushing leader for the team. So, what do we do with Penny?
Conclusion
I’m holding him, but probably also not actively looking to buy him. I think his value is at the lower end of what it could be. I would stand pat with him and look to trade him sometime in the first half of the 2022 season. We know that Walker is the future of the Seattle backfield. Let Penny get off to a hot start this year, and trade him at his peak value.
Thanks for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.
TheJerk