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Russell Gage
By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello Dynasty Owners, and thank you for reading. Today, I’m going to be bringing you a little bit of news, and then I will continue my New Contract Spotlight series. There are only a few articles left in this series before I start my off-season recaps. Buckle up, we are almost to the final month of the off-season.
The News
N’Keal Harry (Traded from New England to Chicago)
N’Keal Harry has been traded from the Patriots to the Bears. This would have been considered a massive trade three years ago. The reason is because Harry was a first round pick in 2019 (overall #32 pick). He was the second wide receiver taken that year (Marquise Brown was first by Baltimore with the #25 overall pick). It goes without saying that Harry has massively underperformed expectations. He has less than 60 receptions and less than 700 total yards of offense in his career. Based on his draft capital, this would have been an expected line for his rookie year alone, not a three-year career.
I have to say that I can’t see how this move hurts Harry though. As a fantasy asset, it can’t get much worse for him. He has been unstartable for his entire career. While I don’t think this move to Chicago will make him startable, I do see a world where he is a somewhat reliable Bench wide receiver. Again, I’m not predicting it, but I could see it happening. He should probably be rostered in the majority of Dynasty Owner leagues just on the off-chance that he becomes the WR2 for the Bears behind Darnell Mooney ($894,263). Take the chance on Harry. He will only cost a little more than $2,500,000 for the final year of his rookie deal. He is available in more than 68% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Go check your leagues now.
Kyle Rudolph (Signed with Tampa Bay)
Under normal circumstances, I would consider Rudolph signing with a team a non-newsworthy event. However, the team and circumstances make this worth mentioning. Rudolph signed with the Buccaneers in the immediate aftermath of Rob Gronkowski’s retirement. Gronk was slated to once again be a Top 10 tight end if he returned. We obviously know that he is not returning for the 2022 season. There will now have to be a primary tight end to fill in for Gronk. I think Cameron Brate ($6,800,000) gets the slight edge at the moment to fill that position. That being said, I don’t think anyone is excited about Brate as a fantasy option. Oh yeah, and Brate costs nearly $7,000,000 per year. We need to wait for the full details of Rudolph’s contract to be released, but I would much rather own a cheap Rudolph over an expensive Brate. Stay tuned for more details, but it seems like Rudolph’s 11.4 percent Dynasty Owner roster percentage is going to increase.
Kyler Murray (Extended by Arizona at 5 years – $230,500,000)
This is by far the biggest news of the segment which is why I saved it for last. This extension technically makes Kyler the second highest paid quarterback per year behind only Aaron Rodgers. Kyler will make 46.1 million dollars per year. This extension will kick in for the 2023 season so Dynasty Owners will be playing with Kyler’s low salary of $8,914,504 for one more season.
It goes without saying, but nearly all of Kyler’s value is going to vanish next year. A player who makes over 46 million dollars (roughly one-third of the current salary cap of $145.74 million) could never rank anywhere near the top in terms of Dynasty Dollars per Fantasy Point (DD/FP) value. This, however, does not mean that Kyler should be dropped either. Just because a player, especially quarterback, is not ranking high in the DD/FP category that does not mean the player can’t help Dynasty Owners win their League Championship for years in a row. I want to emphasize the point that there should not be a sudden panic to trade or drop Kyler this season or next. He is still on a massively valuable contract this year, and he will still be rosterable next season if you manage your cap well. Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) is rostered in almost 100 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, and he is making just as much this year as Kyler will next year. As always…
“Stay calm, think clearly, make long term decisions.”
This advice directly applies to Kyler’s extension.
New Contract Spotlight
Russell Gage
Some of you may know this about me and some of you may not, but I like to participate in a lot of Dynasty Owner leagues. Currently I have eight leagues. The reason I bring this up is because I’ve bought most of them this off-season and I have a couple with Russell Gage on them. Now, I have a pretty strict process that I use to decide if it would be “worth it” to buy a certain team. If it passes my process, then I buy it. This process is obviously based on purchase price as well as team construction. In the two leagues that I bought teams with Russell Gage, I took him to be actually a decent value. Let me explain…
Gage signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this off-season. He left the Atlanta Falcons to join a much more superior offensive team. His contract is 3 years – $30,000,000. At first glance, this may not seem like a good investment. You have a 26 year old wide receiver who has almost always been a WR3 or worse for his team. He has yet to pass 75 receptions, 800 yards or 4 touchdowns in any season.
But here’s the positive. Gage has changed teams, and he will be playing with the best quarterback he’s ever had. Gage is also joining a team that will seemingly have a decent wide receiver hole that needs to be filled. Mike Evans ($16,500,000) will clearly be the WR1 for the season, but we also know that Chris Godwin ($20,000,000) will miss some percentage of the 2022 season as he recovers from a torn ACL. From what I’ve heard, it is unlikely he will be ready for the start of the regular season, and his absence could even extend into the middle portion of the season. One thing I love in fantasy is a hot start to a season. This is the reason I bumped up players like Marquise Brown ($2,946,835) and Zach Ertz ($10,550,000) this year.
Conclusion
Gage is poised to have a red hot start to his season. I’m projecting he will be the second most trusted wide receiver for Brady for at least the first half of the 2022 season. I see Gage as a massively underrated player this year, and he is only going for $10,000,000. He is a player who would have little hesitation drafting at his current ADP of 148.7.
Thanks for reading. If there is any player who you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.
TheJerk