New Contract Spotlight

Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson

By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

As I promised in my last article, today I will be doing a contract spotlight on Cordarelle Patterson. This article will be a little shorter than normal, but that is by design. We have less and less news to talk about, but I anticipate that will pick up once we get into pre-season games. Unfortunately, there will also be injuries, and I will be here to keep you aware of all the details. Let’s talk about Patterson after some news.

The News

Julio Jones

Julio signed with the Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His salary drops significantly from $22,000,000 to $6,000,000. Julio’s roster percentage in Dynasty Owner should increase, but I wouldn’t expect more than WR3 numbers at best for this season.

Chris Carson

Chris Carson was released by the Seattle Seahawks with an injury designation and has retired from professional football.  You are encouraged to drop him for free, once his status is updated to Free Agent.

D.K. Metcalf

Metcalf has been given an extension by the Seattle Seahawks.  His extension is worth 3 years – $72,000,000.  We know that this won’t kick in until the 2023 Dynasty Owner season.

Deebo Samuel

Deebo has signed an almost identical extension with his team, the 49ers.  Starting in 2023, Samuel will make 23.85 million dollars per year (3 years – $71.55 million).

Diontae Johnson

Diontae Johnson will be staying put in Pittsburgh as he signed a 2 year – $36.71 million contract extension. This is $18.355 million per year and significantly less than both Metcalf and Samuel in terms of overall contract amount and on a per season basis.

Deshaun Watson

Watson has been suspended for the first six games of the 2022 season. The NFL has opted to appeal the suspension, so this is subject to change.  As for right now, plan on a production increase for the Browns’ running backs and downgrade for their receivers.

New Contract Spotlight

Cordarrelle Patterson

Cordarrelle Patterson had a truly shocking season in 2021. He had his breakout season at the age of 30. This is an extreme outlier for any player. It is even more of an outlier when you look at how he obtained his Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He had 153 rushing attempts which was good for 618 yards and six touchdowns. This is a modest seasonal line, but the receiving game is where he got the majority of his production. He had 52 receptions for 548 yards and five additional touchdowns. Because Dynasty Owner offers scoring for return yards, he added 10.85 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from 434 return yards.

As I said, this is a very unconventional season for a 30 year old player, especially one who only had running back eligibility. We can draw comparisons from another RB/WR hybrid player, Deebo Samuel ($1,811,869). Deebo clearly had the better 2021 season, and he would be picked over Patterson by every single person who plays Dynasty Owner, but the comp is still there. Deebo racked up over 1,700 total rushing and receiving yards with 15 total touchdowns (8 rushing, 6 receiving and 1 passing). He finished the season as the WR3.

Here’s a guessing game…What position do you think Patterson finished last season?

The answer is RB8. Now, Deebo had almost 100 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Patterson, but they would still be drafted close to each other in a 2021 draft if you knew what their production would have been. Let me ask you this question…

Would you rather own the RB8 in any given season, or would you rather own the WR3 in any given season?

The initial answer could be something like this: “Well, of course I’d take the WR3 because he is better at his position, and he had over 90 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than the running back.”  That is a logical point, and one that I wouldn’t say is wrong, but let me present the question to you in a different way. Would you take that WR3 at the end of the 1st round (likely your first pick) knowing that you could draft RB8 in the 10th round?

Obviously it is very possible that you could have the opportunity to own both players as they aren’t being drafted anywhere near each other. I think if I was forced to choose only one, it would still be Deebo, but it’s closer than you may think. Another problem with this scenario is that I don’t see Patterson getting as many touches in 2022, and I don’t see him being as efficient with the ones he’s given. So, what do we do with him?

Conclusion

Patterson signed a 2 year – $10,500,000 contract with the Falcons this off-season. This puts him at $5,250,000 per year. As I mentioned in last week’s article, I see Patterson as the perfect Bench running back with upside. Do I expect him to finish as an RB1 again (Top 12)? I do not. I see him landing in more of the RB16 – RB20 range. Either way, this will prove to be a value.

Thanks for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

Addressing Training Camp Overreactions

By: Nate Christian (@NateNFL)

We are nearly through two weeks of NFL training camps, and everyone is loving it. Football is back and nobody can get enough of the hype coming from each team’s beat reporter. Some players are starting to stand out and once they get their names in the headlines a couple days in a row, it might be worth paying attention. Of course, a word of caution, every year players stand out in training camp, and we start creating expectations that they never come close to meeting during the NFL season. With over a month till the regular season, don’t overreact just yet!

Romeo Doubs is the Packers WR1?

Christian Watson ($2,310,258) has yet to get on the field for training camp, and in his absence Doubs ($1,085,979) has taken his place as the most exciting rookie on the offense. Consistently making plays down the field, he’s even managed to grab the attention of Aaron Rodgers ($33,500,000) who said, “Every single day … there’s been at least one kind of ‘wow’ play for him, and that’s kind of rare for a young guy like that. Now we’ve had some guys over the years kind of do that, but they’re all in the top 10, I think, in the Packers’ receiving history.” Rodgers isn’t one to hand out praise easily so this certainly should be grabbing your attention. But is the juice worth the squeeze?

After all Doubs is just a 4th round pick out of Nevada (overall #132 pick). I’ve been a big fan of Doubs since the 2021 college football season, when he showed off great physicality and playmaking ability with big-armed quarterback Carson Strong ($853,333). Doubs is definitely worth taking a shot on and trying to acquire as depth on your Practice Squad. He won’t be the #1 target but in a wide receiver room full of unknown, take a chance on the guy with Rodgers’ attention.

Trey Lance Struggles?

The story and drama around the 49ers and Trey Lance ($8,526,319) goes back to way before this year’s training camp, but with Jimmy Garoppolo ($27,500,000) finally on the way out, head coach Kyle Shanahan has fully committed to Lance as the face of the franchise. With all the expectations from local and national media the eyes have been on his training camp statistics. There have been some ups and downs, but overall, the talent is obviously there, and he is showing improvement from last year’s camp. The biggest caveat to Lance’s training camp is the hype surrounding the 49ers defense. They are being heralded as one of the best in the league, if not the best. Lance is going through the ringer on a daily basis, and as they say, “Iron sharpens iron.” There should be no judgement passed for Lance until we see him on an NFL field with all of his starters.

Michael Thomas is Back?

Yes, I do believe that slant boy is back. Michael Thomas ($19,250,000) has been MIA for the Saints over the past year (or two) and questions have been swirling about not only his physical health, but also his mental health. But Thomas is back on the field competing in training camp, and so far the reports have been stellar. Thomas apparently looks like his old self, making quick cuts and catching everything thrown his way. He’s not a full-go yet, but with plenty of time until the regular season, Thomas will be able to take his time. There’s no denying his talent, just his availability and it looks like he’s on the up and up. With gunslinger Jameis Winston ($14,000,000) as the quarterback for the Saints, I believe the fantasy upside that Thomas provides makes him worth the risk. We likely won’t know until Week 1, just how “back” Thomas is, but he’s on pace to make a major impact this season for his team.

Stay Away From The Eagles Backfield!

In fantasy football, sometimes the way to win is to avoid the unknown. Sometimes it’s less about who to pick, and more about knowing who not to pick. In this instance I’m saying stay away from any member of the Eagles backfield. Yes, Miles Sanders ($1,337,544) is a talented running back, but try telling Head Coach Nick Sirianni that. Sanders has said himself to not pick him in fantasy football this year due to the offense he’s in. A couple weeks later, we see that in training camp, he’s running with the 2s while Kenneth Gainwell ($953,882) gets some of the carries with the 1s. While both are sure to split the load, Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292) will also get his share and then a third or fourth running back will likely get their hands in there as well. Sirianni is unlikely to commit to giving Sanders a large amount of volume, so it is best to just stay away from this whole situation in 2022.

Treylon Burks Conditioning Issues

Short story here, Burks ($3,592,398) wasn’t prepared for the NFL’s level of conditioning and combined with his asthma got held back a bit to start off Organized Team Activities (OTAs) and mini-camp. Since training camp has started, there has been no issues and the coaching staff has even said themselves that the issues are in the past. Burks has since impressed in training camp, especially in 1v1s where he has used his physicality to win. This bodes well for the Titans who have put the capital into Burks to replace their former receiver A.J. Brown ($1,413,092). This is a role that Burks should be able to step into right away and produce significant fantasy numbers and efficiency. The buy-low window is closing, but you still may have your chance if you’re looking to add another stud young wideout to your team.