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By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello Dynasty Owners. I’m Matt theJerk here with another Free Agent Friday article. My New Contract Spotlight series has ended. In all, we made it through 16 Spotlights this off-season. We have only four more articles prior to the start of the regular season so I will use these four weeks to recap some of the more important things I’ve talked about. I will also keep everyone up to date on any important news that happens between now and then. There is not much news to report at the moment so we will jump into my first recap.
This will be the schedule for my next four articles:
- Free Agent Recap
- Top 5 Rankings Recap
- Contract Spotlight Recap
- General News Recap
Many of the points I highlighted over the past several months will be reiterated and repeated, but there will also be many changes and developments. Fantasy football is a fluid game.
Free Agent Recap
Here are some of the biggest free agent signings since the middle of March.
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN) – 1 year/$2,500,000
“I was greatly looking forward to seeing Williams become the bell cow back for a super talented offensive team. That clearly won’t happen, but I also can’t blame Denver for this move, and here is why…
They signed Melvin Gordon as an absolute steal. The deal is 1 year – $2,500,000. This is an insane value for a running back who just put up over 1,000 total yards in back to back seasons. It’s also an insane value when you consider that Gordon was playing on an $8,000,000 contract last year. And then the realization hit me…
I’m not disappointed in this news at all (at least from Melvin’s side). Dynasty Owners are getting a Top 20 running back on a team that is better than last year (Russell Wilson trade), and his contract is less than a third of what it was in the previous two seasons. What more could we ask for? Yes, I would have preferred if Gordon went to a new team and became their three down back, but that was likely always just a pipe dream. The odds that a team, other than the Texans, would make a newly signed, 29-year old running back their workhorse back is unlikely at best. This really is fantastic news for everyone who continued to hold Gordon throughout free agency.
(Published April 29th)
I wrote that at the end of April, and I would say that my feelings have largely stayed the same. I was very disappointed that Gordon and Javonte Williams ($2,216,438) would once again be taking fantasy value from each other. I have cooled down since then. There is still disappointment, but it has faded. I see Gordon and Williams both finishing as Top 24 running backs this season. I see Williams outscoring Gordon and becoming more of the feature back as the season progresses. We also know that if either of these backs get hurt for a long period of time, the other will likely be a league winner.
James Conner (RB – ARI) – 3 years/$7,000,000 per year
“As we know, Conner is on a $7,000,000 per year contract. This is a middle tier value as far as contracts go. However, I consider Conner a top tier producer. Pair this with the idea that he should have more touches and targets when compared to his split backfield in 2021. Conner is tied for the 10th highest running back contract, and I have him projected to finish as RB10 or better. He is not only going to be productive, but he is a great value. Draft, trade or hold him with confidence.”
(Published May 13th)
As was the case with Gordon, my opinion of Conner has not changed much. He will be the lead back on a Top 10 offense. That offense is also among the league leaders for plays run per game. I don’t expect him to have 18 touchdowns again this season, but he should easily pass 10.
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB) – 3 years/$7,000,000 per year
“At $7,000,000 per year, Fournette is currently tied as the eleventh most expensive running back in Dynasty Owner on a per year basis. He happens to be making exactly the same as James Conner. Oddly enough, they finished back to back in the rankings last season too. Fournette was RB5 and Conner was RB6.
Here is the best way I can summarize it…
Will Fournette lead Dynasty Owner running backs in Dynasty Dollar per Fantasy Point (DD/FP)? The answer is “No” as that is impossible. What he will do though is give you great value from a middle tier salary. I can’t wait to see what he does with a backfield more or less to himself, especially with Tom Brady returning for at least one more year.”
(Published on April 1st)
The biggest thing that has changed since the time I wrote this is the rumor that Fournette showed up to training camp overweight. There was a report that he weighed in the mid 260’s. There was also a report shortly after that, that he weighed mid 240’s. My point is that I don’t really care. Yes, Fournette has had reported issues in the past about his weight. I don’t care. I fully believe that he can and will show up Week 1 ready to protect Tom Brady. If he protects Brady, he will be the primary running back on the field.
Allen Robinson (WR – LAR) – 3 years/$15,500,000 per year
“I understand why Robinson’s roster percentage in Dynasty Owner shot up after the signing with the Rams. He will likely be the second option for Stafford after Kupp. This is a valuable position to be in, and it’s one that I recommend taking a shot on. I have two Dynasty Owner leagues where I have Robinson on my roster. I rostered him throughout the entire off-season, so far, despite being up against the cap. Much like I mentioned with MVS in my last article, I would be a holder of Robinson at least through the first month of the 2022 season.”
(Published June 17th)
The only thing that gives me pause with Robinson’s scenario is the health of Matthew Stafford’s elbow. I’m not too worried about it at the moment, but a lingering injury that sidelines Stafford ($27,000,000) for weeks at a time would dramatically hurt Robinson’s value. Continue to monitor it, but at the moment I’m still in on Robinson.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) – 3 years/$20,000,000
“Williams ended up signing a 3 year – $60,000,000 contract. This means he will make $20,000,000 per year. As I said above, he will be the sixth highest paid wide receiver in Dynasty Owner this year. The contract ensured that the Chargers have the two highest paid wide receiver teammates of anyone in the NFL. The next closest are Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
I would be happy to own Williams in any of my Dynasty Owner leagues. As always, it comes down to how much you can save at other positions. I see him as a perfect second or third wide receiver if you are able to save on running backs.”
(Published April 15th)
Mike Williams holds up as one of my favorite wide receivers this year. I think there’s a very good chance that he outperforms his teammate, Keenan Allen ($20,025,000). Williams definitely has the most upside of the two receivers. It’s true that $20,000,000 a year is a lot to pay for a receiver, but he will likely be a WR1 when the season is over.
Thanks for reading. If you want a more in depth breakdown on any of these players (or more) go take a look back at some of my past articles (go to https://dynastyowner.com/articles/ and click on an article, then search “TheJerk” in the box on the right hand side of the page).
If there is ever any player you want me to give more attention to, message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.
TheJerk