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Free Agent Friday: Top 5 Rankings Recap

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By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello Dynasty Owners. We have one NFL pre-season week behind us and two more to go. With that in mind, I will be continuing my “Recap” series. Today I will be reminding you of the Top 5 rankings I did earlier this off-season. I will also be updating them as a few players have swapped positions.

This is also a good time to let everyone know that my Dynasty Owner full rankings will be released soon. These rankings do not just take into account one year or even two years. I am looking at a three to five year window. Yes, there will be “win now” players a little higher up than you may expect as winning now has its place in Dynasty Owner too. I will have positional rankings as well as combined rankings. In addition to that, I will be bringing you weekly rankings throughout the regular season. I can’t wait to start making that content for you all, but for now, let’s look at my updated Top 5 rankings. I’ll go through the four major positions in order.  Let’s do it.

Quarterback Top 5

PositionPlayer, TeamSalaryYears
QBJustin Herbert, LAC$6,644,6882
QBJalen Hurts, PHI$1,506,2922
QBJoe Burrow, CIN$9,047,5342
QBJosh Allen, BUF$43,005,6677
QBKyler Murray, ARI$8,914,5041

“I don’t think there should be too many surprises for you here. Keep in mind that these rankings reflect many years out. They take age, production and salary into account.

Jalen Hurts comes in at Number two. To be honest, he would probably rank Number one if I was guaranteed that he will remain the Eagles starter for the next five years. His salary is so low that he sits at less than a quarter of Herbert’s salary. Hurts has the upside to be a top three quarterback production wise.

Josh Allen is our only “high salary” quarterback to make it on to this list. Here is my rationale…At some point, production overcomes salary. Even if Allen will never win any salary efficiency metrics around here, he should be one of the first five quarterbacks drafted in each start-up draft. The statistical advantage that he will give you over your opponent’s quarterback each week is more valuable than trying to save on his $43,000,000 salary. Draft Allen at the back of your first round and save money elsewhere.”

(Published June 10th)

I have changed nothing between June 10th and now. My quarterbacks are pretty much locked into place. There have been no major injuries or team changes that would make me want to shift someone up or down. The closest I got to moving someone is when Kyler Murray’s teammate DeAndre Hopkins ($27,250,000) was suspended for six games to start the 2022 NFL season. In the end, it wasn’t enough for me to move Russell Wilson ($33,500,000) or Trey Lance ($8,526,319) ahead of him. If you are curious, here are the next five quarterbacks on my list:

  • Russell Wilson (QB – DEN) – $33,500,000
  • Trey Lance (QB – SF) – $8,526,319)
  • Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) – $23,016,000
  • Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) – $7,568,859)
  • Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) – $45,000,000

Running Back Top 5

PositionPlayer, TeamSalaryYears
RBJonathan Taylor, IND$1,957,2872
RBNajee Harris, PIT$3,261,8623
RBChristian McCaffrey, CAR$16,015,8754
RBAustin Ekeler, LAC$6,125,0002
RBJavonte Williams, DEN$2,216,4383

“Harris was the RB3 last year. He was sandwiched between Ekeler and Joe Mixon ($12,000,000). Harris had 381 touches in 2021 including 74 receptions. This led all running backs in total touches. I do think Harris’ role as the lead running back for the Steelers is more than secure.

McCaffrey could very easily outperform this ranking. If he stays healthy for an entire season, he will likely rank as the RB1 at the end of 2022. That is a big “if” though.”

(Published June 17th)

There was actually a decent amount of movement from the running back position. I have Taylor and Harris fully locked as 1 & 2. It would take a major injury to move one of them. Past that though, it gets a little more subjective. I slid CMC up to the #3 spot where he was previously 5th. I just can’t put someone with that much upside past the RB3. Yes, his salary is as big as it gets for running backs, but he would still be the third RB I would want in Dynasty Owner. Ekeler stayed put at in the 4th spot even though CMC jumped him.

What’s also interesting is that D’Andre Swift ($2,216,438) moved from 3rd to 6th and therefore, out of the Top 5. It’s not that I’ve lost trust in Swift but rather that I think I was underestimating Javonte Williams. In my opinion, Williams is a better running back than Swift. He will be a better real NFL player and a better fantasy running back on a better team. Here are RB6 – RB10:

  • D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) – $2,216,438
  • Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN) – $12,600,000
  • Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) – $15,000,000
  • Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) – $2,253,694
  • James Conner (RB – ARI) – $7,000,000

Wide Receiver Top 5

PositionPlayer, TeamSalaryYears
WRJustin Jefferson, MIN$3,280,7012
WRJa’Marr Chase, CIN$7,704,9103
WRCeeDee Lamb, DAL$3,502,5032
WRCooper Kupp, LA$15,750,0002
WRDeebo Samuel, SF$1,811,8691

“The top two shouldn’t surprise you at all.  Jefferson and Chase are two of the best and youngest wide receivers in the NFL.  As you know, young means cheap.  Here is the rationale I used for putting Jefferson over Chase…

  1. Jefferson’s salary is less than half the salary of Chase.
  2. Jefferson has proven himself a top production wide receiver for two consecutive years. It’s not that I don’t think Chase can or will continue dominance, but I trust a two-year sample over a single year.
  3. Jefferson received 25 percent more volume in 2021 than Chase did. You could technically take this as a positive for Chase as he was very close to Jefferson’s production with less opportunities. I like to see it as Jefferson is getting more guaranteed targets, therefore his production is less prone to fluky, big plays.”

(Published June 24th)

There were no changes to my Top 5 wide receivers since June. Like the quarterbacks, I think these wide receivers are pretty well locked in. If there was one player I may be concerned about, it would be Lamb. It remains to be seen how Lamb will perform as the clear cut WR1 for the Cowboys. I think Lamb will become an elite receiver over the next three years which is why he’s in the #3 spot. The following round out the Top 10.

  • Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) – $14,400,000
  • Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) – $6,771,498
  • Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) – $2,171,696
  • Michael Pittman (WR – IND) – $2,153,212
  • Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) – $1,070,241

Tight End Top 5

PositionPlayer, TeamSalaryYears
TEKyle Pitts, ATL$8,227,6243
TEMark Andrews, BAL$14,000,0004
TEDarren Waller, LV$7,450,0002
TEPat Freiermuth, PIT$1,507,0453
TETravis Kelce, KC$14,312,5004

“Kyle Pitts is my Number one tight end at this point in the off-season, and I don’t see that changing. To be honest, I think Pitts has the biggest amount of separation between a top position and second place.

Freiermuth is fourth because of his age (23) and his crazy cheap salary ($1,507,045). I expect him to take a 20%+ step forward in his sophomore year. Expect a long and productive career for one of the best young tight ends in the game.”

(Published July 1st)

There are no changes with my tight end Top 5. Kelce is probably the player closest to being moved out, but I still think his elite production will be there for the next year.

The rest of the Top 10:

  • T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET) – $4,955,306
  • Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL) – $10,931,000
  • George Kittle (TE – SF) – $15,000,000
  • Cole Kmet (TE – CHI) – $1,894,444
  • Zach Ertz (TE – ARI) – $10,550,000

Thanks for reading. If you want a more in depth breakdown on any of these players (or more) go take a look back at some of my past articles (go to https://dynastyowner.com/articles/ and click on an article, then search “TheJerk” in the box on the right hand side of the page).

Next week I will look into some of the more important New Contract Spotlights. If there is ever any player you want me to give more attention to, message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.

TheJerk

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