By: Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
As I promised in my last article, today I will be doing a contract spotlight on Cordarelle Patterson. This article will be a little shorter than normal, but that is by design. We have less and less news to talk about, but I anticipate that will pick up once we get into pre-season games. Unfortunately, there will also be injuries, and I will be here to keep you aware of all the details. Let’s talk about Patterson after some news.
Julio signed with the Tom Brady led Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His salary drops significantly from $22,000,000 to $6,000,000. Julio’s roster percentage in Dynasty Owner should increase, but I wouldn’t expect more than WR3 numbers at best for this season.
Chris Carson was released by the Seattle Seahawks with an injury designation and has retired from professional football. You are encouraged to drop him for free, once his status is updated to Free Agent.
Metcalf has been given an extension by the Seattle Seahawks. His extension is worth 3 years – $72,000,000. We know that this won’t kick in until the 2023 Dynasty Owner season.
Deebo has signed an almost identical extension with his team, the 49ers. Starting in 2023, Samuel will make 23.85 million dollars per year (3 years – $71.55 million).
Diontae Johnson will be staying put in Pittsburgh as he signed a 2 year – $36.71 million contract extension. This is $18.355 million per year and significantly less than both Metcalf and Samuel in terms of overall contract amount and on a per season basis.
Watson has been suspended for the first six games of the 2022 season. The NFL has opted to appeal the suspension, so this is subject to change. As for right now, plan on a production increase for the Browns’ running backs and downgrade for their receivers.
New Contract Spotlight
Cordarrelle Patterson had a truly shocking season in 2021. He had his breakout season at the age of 30. This is an extreme outlier for any player. It is even more of an outlier when you look at how he obtained his Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He had 153 rushing attempts which was good for 618 yards and six touchdowns. This is a modest seasonal line, but the receiving game is where he got the majority of his production. He had 52 receptions for 548 yards and five additional touchdowns. Because Dynasty Owner offers scoring for return yards, he added 10.85 Dynasty Owner fantasy points from 434 return yards.
As I said, this is a very unconventional season for a 30 year old player, especially one who only had running back eligibility. We can draw comparisons from another RB/WR hybrid player, Deebo Samuel ($1,811,869). Deebo clearly had the better 2021 season, and he would be picked over Patterson by every single person who plays Dynasty Owner, but the comp is still there. Deebo racked up over 1,700 total rushing and receiving yards with 15 total touchdowns (8 rushing, 6 receiving and 1 passing). He finished the season as the WR3.
Here’s a guessing game…What position do you think Patterson finished last season?
The answer is RB8. Now, Deebo had almost 100 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Patterson, but they would still be drafted close to each other in a 2021 draft if you knew what their production would have been. Let me ask you this question…
Would you rather own the RB8 in any given season, or would you rather own the WR3 in any given season?
The initial answer could be something like this: “Well, of course I’d take the WR3 because he is better at his position, and he had over 90 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than the running back.” That is a logical point, and one that I wouldn’t say is wrong, but let me present the question to you in a different way. Would you take that WR3 at the end of the 1st round (likely your first pick) knowing that you could draft RB8 in the 10th round?
Obviously it is very possible that you could have the opportunity to own both players as they aren’t being drafted anywhere near each other. I think if I was forced to choose only one, it would still be Deebo, but it’s closer than you may think. Another problem with this scenario is that I don’t see Patterson getting as many touches in 2022, and I don’t see him being as efficient with the ones he’s given. So, what do we do with him?
Patterson signed a 2 year – $10,500,000 contract with the Falcons this off-season. This puts him at $5,250,000 per year. As I mentioned in last week’s article, I see Patterson as the perfect Bench running back with upside. Do I expect him to finish as an RB1 again (Top 12)? I do not. I see him landing in more of the RB16 – RB20 range. Either way, this will prove to be a value.
Thanks for reading. If there is any player that you want me to Spotlight, just message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Take care everyone and be safe.