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By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Happy Wednesday everyone, and welcome to my first in-season article of the year. If you remember, it has been tradition over the past three seasons for me to start with a “Don’t Tilt” article. In 2020, I did a single article after Week 1. Last year, I did a two-part series which is exactly what I’m going to be doing this year.
You may be asking yourself, “what does ‘don’t tilt’ mean?” Allow me to explain…
There are many reasons throughout the course of an NFL season that players are given up on. Conversely, there are also many reasons why players are overhyped a little more than they should be. This article is here to remind you to stay grounded…to stay levelheaded. It can be tempting to have wild emotional reactions to just a single week of football. I understand that it’s hard to fight that urge. We have been waiting for real NFL games for quite a while, and it stings when you are on the wrong side of a loss right out the gate. I get it. It’s not fun, but the worst thing you can do after that is make a decision based on emotion that you will regret later.
I will be giving you specific advice about certain players in these next two weeks, but let me sum it up this way.
Patience
Please be patient. Give it at least four weeks into the season before you start forming lasting ideas about what a player is or isn’t. With that said, let’s begin.
Bills
I’m unconcerned with Dawson Knox ($880,400). Yes, he had an amazingly poor fantasy night of one reception for five yards. For those counting at home, that’s 1.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (DOFP). Here is why I’m not concerned. Knox had the third most snaps (51) of any Bills’ player. He was behind only Josh Allen ($43,005,667) and Gabe Davis ($998,595). Knox was obviously used mainly as a blocker with only two targets, but I expect more opportunities as games are closer and more competitive. I would still feel comfortable with Knox in my Dynasty Owner Starting lineup or Bench in Week 2.
Rams
This next player is going to be a tough one for me, but I still truly believe it. I’m predicting the game that Allen Robinson ($15,500,000) just had will be the worst week of his season. He was held to a single catch for 12 yards (2.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). I know what many fantasy managers are thinking, “not again.” I know. I’m with you. I have several shares of Robinson, and I had several shares last year. Like Knox, Robinson was on the field for over 90 percent of his team’s snaps. After the game, Sean McVay said that they need to get him more involved moving forward. After watching all of Robinson’s routes, I still see that he has some intensity left. I chalk this game up to a poor rapport between Matthew Stafford ($27,000,000) and him. I’m hesitantly optimistic that Robinson will rebound. I don’t blame you if you place him on the Bench though. Just don’t give up on him entirely.
Honorable mention: Cam Akers
Saints
There wasn’t much negative for the Saints in Week 1. They came away with the win, and almost all of their top players had favorable fantasy days. The one that you may be most disappointed with is Alvin Kamara ($15,000,000). He finished with only 46 total yards and three receptions. This was good for only 7.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. I have no concerns for Kamara.
Falcons
The elephant in the room today is Kyle Pitts ($8,227,624). I would argue that he had the most underwhelming game of the entire week. He had two receptions for 19 yards and no touchdown (3.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Pitts is just barely on my panic radar, but I’m rolling him out there next week with confidence. The only thing that makes him appear at all on my radar is the fact that we don’t know if this will be the norm for a Marcus Mariota-led ($9,375,000) offense.
49ers
Aside from the low hanging fruit of George Kittle ($15,000,000) and Elijah Mitchell ($915,892), I want to express my lack of concern for Trey Lance ($8,526,319). The field conditions and overall weather were abysmal on Sunday. It seemed to affect even the running game. Lance will look to produce his first touchdown of the season next week against the Seahawks.
Bears
Despite winning, the Bears’ issues seem to be largely related to the weather as well. Darnell Mooney ($894,263) and David Montgomery ($1,003,845) were very disappointing. The volume was in place for Monty (20 touches – 17 rushing attempts and 3 receptions) which gives me hope. If you drafted him, you know that you likely have to start him.
Steelers
I am mildly concerned about Najee Harris ($3,261,862), but only because of his injury. He left the Steelers’ Week 1 game with a foot injury. The extent of the injury is still unknown, but any foot injury for a running back is bound to raise some concerns. Don’t look to move him or put him on your Bench until we know more.
Bengals
The same thing can be said about Tee Higgins ($2,171,696). Higgins left the same game with a concussion. Concussions are obviously a serious injury and should be treated that way. We are really at the mercy of the recovery process right now.
Eagles
I fully planned on writing about one of the three Eagles’ running backs prior to watching the game. In the end, all three scored a touchdown on the day. Instead, the “tilt alert” award goes to DeVonta Smith ($5,035,348). Smith was blanked on Sunday as he didn’t catch any of his four targets. It’s tough to explain other than by saying that Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292) hyper targeted A.J. Brown ($1,143,092). Brown had 10 of Hurts’ 18 completions and 13 out of 29 targets. I expect a more evenly distributed passing game next week.
Lions
Everyone on the Lions worth starting in Dynasty Owner had at least a decent game. I have no concerns for anyone in Detroit at the moment.
Patriots
There was a lot of mediocrity to go around for the Patriots, at least in terms of fantasy performance.
| Player | Salary | DOFP |
| Mac Jones | $3,896,588 | 10.6 |
| Damien Harris | $907,784 | 7.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | $1,057,264 | 4.7 |
| Hunter Henry | $12,500,000 | 4.0 |
The Dolphins defense was stout, and their time of possession was slightly higher than New England (32:30 for Miami vs. 27:30 for New England).
Dolphins
Just like the Lions, there is no one from the Dolphins who showed anything on Sunday that I would be concerned with. The one exception would be Mike Gesicki ($10,931,000), but I hope none of you are starting him at this point. It was pretty common knowledge that he would not be utilized in this offense as much as he had in the past.
Ravens
I wish I could go back in time and not start Mike Davis ($1,272,500) in one of my Dynasty Owner leagues as he had 0.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11 rushing yards and a fumble). Other than that, the Ravens’ offense was humming along.
Jets
Even in a nasty blowout, I have no concerns for the Jets’ receivers. Corey Davis ($12,500,000), Michael Carter ($1,071,842), Breece Hall ($2,253,694), Garrett Wilson ($5,138,502), and Elijah Moore ($2,235,107) all had at least four receptions and at least 38 receiving yards.
Jaguars
I am slightly concerned for Travis Etienne ($3,224,526). I’m not concerned about the heartbreaking mistakes that he made in Week 1 (fumbles and dropped passes). Instead, I am concerned about how much work James Robinson ($763,333) received. More concerning than that is how good Robinson looked. Robinson had 19.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 11 carries for 66 rushing yards and two touchdowns. That is not the line I expected for him in Week 1. Continue to start Etienne, but be aware that he likely won’t take a firm grip on this backfield anytime soon.
Commanders
Nothing to report for Washington. The Commanders’ offense was actually somewhat efficient. And the ball was spread around nicely (five different rushers, seven different receivers with a reception and ten with a target).
Conclusion
I’m going to leave you with the same advice I gave you at the start of this article and the same advice that I gave you last year at this time.
“If you take only one thing from this article, let it be this point…
We have only witnessed one week. This is an incredibly small sample size compared to what we are about to witness for the rest of the season. I have never given up on a player solely because of one or two weeks. Bear through the weeks and trust your draft process and strategy. Give yourself at least four weeks before you start to make critical decisions about your team, especially in Dynasty Owner.”
I thank you all for reading and for continuing to support Dynasty Owner. Next week I will continue and complete my “Don’t Tilt” series as I talk about the 16 teams I didn’t make it to today.
Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk